Oceanside-Escondido Rail Line1.011 Final Project PresentationJohn R. Velasco May 12th, 2003

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North San Diego County Transit District Service Area

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History & Background

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OVERVIEWPUBLIC OPINION: 78% of North County residents recently surveyed believe traffic on Highway 78 is a major issue.

FACTS:Heavily traveled with moderate to severe congestionCurrently 145,000 vehicle trips/day74% increase in North County population by 2015No plans to widen - not economically feasible

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Background1987 SANDAG Highway 78 Corridor Study

(determined rail service in corridor is feasible)1987 TRANSNET 1/2% sales tax approved1992 SANDAG Transit Corridor Evaluation (determined DMU’s most

cost-efficient)1992 NCTD (with MTDB) purchases 84 miles of track, including The

SPRINTER line for $90 millionKeeps project costs down

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Problems & Issues

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Problems & IssuesCal State San Marcos Loop at Highway 78 Overcrossing

37 grade crossings in 22 miles

Short-term construction traffic

Local outreach and notification

Continuing Freight Rail operations during construction

Traffic Control Plan to meet Caltrans requirements

Implementation of Traffic Control Plan will reduce impacts to less than significant

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PROJECT ENGINEERING HIGHWAY 78

Existing Conditions Looking west bound

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PROJECT ENGINEERING HIGHWAY 78

Post Development Conditions Looking west bound

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Costs & Benefits

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Costs

Total Construction Costs $205,969,000

Total Non-Constr. Costs $107,062,000

Project Contingency $ 16,400,000

Project Escalation $ 22,069,000

Total Project Budget $351,500,000

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Costs--In perspective

“Highly Recommended” Project by FTA$16.1 million/mile ($40-50 M National Avg.)55% locally fundedHigh potential use

Annual operating cost for Oceanside - Escondido Rail Project: $12.2 million in first full year of operation

Estimated 40-50% farebox recovery rate -consistent with national average

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Benefits

Potential addition of 4,884 full-time jobs during construction with 6,667 secondary or indirect jobs for the regionAddition of 170 on-site jobs for operation and maintenance of the system when it is up and running with 304 indirect jobs generatedImproved air quality…Fewer emissions from vehicles on Highway 78 (25-30% decrease in auto traffic)Increased travel capacity in the corridor...You don’t have to use transit to benefit from transitIncreased mobility for North County residents:

Link to COASTER / AMTRAK / MetrolinkLink to BREEZELink to Interstate 15 and future Bus Rapid TransitProvide bike trail in corridor More access to local schools, jobs and shopping

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SERVICE TO STUDENTS

Cal State University San MarcosCurrently has 8,000 students

plus 800 faculty & staff11,000 students projected by 200918,000 students projected by 2020

Palomar College20,000 students currently attend San Marcos campus

Mira Costa College13,616 students by 2005

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CSU SAN MARCOS STATION

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Potential Ridership

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RAIL SERVICEPassenger service every 30 minutes from 5 a.m. to 10:30 p.m.64 train trips/dayMax speed: 50 mphFlat fares proposed $1.50/tripFreight service will continue 2-3 times a week at nightProjected daily ridership:12,000 in 200519,000 in 2020

Transit riders in corridor: 9,800 on Routes 302, 318 and 320**Fastest growing ridership in system**

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POTENTIAL RIDERS

Ridership throughout the day, connections to shopping important

0% 20% 40% 60% 80%

Work 21%

School 12%

Shopping 68%

Visit friends 51%

Other 49%

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Diesel Multiple Unit Technology (DMU)

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WHY DMU?

•Ability to operate in existing right-of-way

•Bi-directional operation•Designed for light-density, regional service to heavily-used urban and inter-city rail lines and Bus Rapid Transit

•Modular design / “building block” approach •Multiple - unit capability•Lightweight materialSelf-propelled diesel - no catenary required

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Financial Analysis

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Financial Analysis

10% (14%)Interest Rate (yearly)

.83% (1.17%)Interest Rate (monthly)

82 (32)Total Length of Project22 (14)Length of Construction Period

2 (2)Length of Final Preparation Period58 (16)Length of Project Planning/Design Period

Control Panel (all periods in months)

313.62045.833197.22125.2201.94743.400Net Present Value (Scenario #1)

308.74246.060195.62021.9681.69443.400Net Present Value (Base)

335.08546.636214.91127.7932.34543.400Original Costs

Total Expenses

Final SetupConstructionDesign

Project Management

Land/Right-of-Way

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Scenario Analysis

$2,874,375.00 Total Yearly Revenue

$7,875.00 Total Daily Revenue250Train Capacity 10.5Total time (hrs)

5,250Total Daily Riders21Total Trips/Day17.5Stop time:

$1.50 Fare/person/trip2# Trips/Hr7Start time:

Format( 5.5=5:30 AM, 22.25=10:15 PM)

14%Interest RateNew

$6,775,312.50 Total Yearly Revenue

$18,562.50 Total Daily Revenue375Train Capacity 16.5Total time (hrs)

12,375Total Daily Riders33Total Trips/Day22Stop time:

$1.50 Fare/person/trip2# Trips/Hr5.5Start time:

Format( 5.5=5:30 AM, 22.25=10:15 PM)

10%Interest RateOriginal

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Conclusions

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ReviewState Route 78 Inadequate to carry increasing traffic

Total Construction Costs: $350 M

Avg. Cost/Mile= $16.1 M (National Avg. $45-60 M)

40-50% Farebox Recovery Rate

12,000+ daily rider when opens in 2005

State-of-the-art DMU Technology

Environmentally Friendly, Efficient, Cheap!