Global Climate Change AllianceSupport Facility

General introduction

Training workshops onmainstreaming climate change

Workshop objectives

• You are more:– aware of the benefits and the challenges of

mainstreaming climate change adaptation and mitigationin national development planning and budgeting

– familiar with a framework and tools available for– familiar with a framework and tools available formainstreaming climate change

– motivated and better equipped to contribute to thismainstreaming process

• You also:– share your views, knowledge and experience

– provide insights and feedback to the EC on climatechange mainstreaming

2

What is the GCCA?What is the GCCA?

3

Enhanced dialogue with developingcountries on climate change

• First pillar of the Global Climate ChangeAlliance (GCCA)

• Promote a convergence of visions on a post-2012 climatechange regime between the EU and partner countries

• Regional conferences, policy dialogues and joint• Regional conferences, policy dialogues and jointdeclarations– Asia, May 2010

– Africa, Oct 2010

– Pacific, March 2011 (e.g. specific dialogue on climate finance andaid effectiveness)

– Caribbean, April 2011

• National policy dialogue (see pillar 2)

4

Increased support for climatechange

• Second pillar of the GCCA

• € 200 million (2008-2011)

• € 60+ million (2012-2013)

• Promote approaches to integrate climate change intodevelopment planning and budgetingdevelopment planning and budgeting– Mainstreaming programmes and workshops

• Focus on:– integration of climate change in poverty reduction and development

efforts

– adaptation – notably in water and agriculture

– REDD and participation in the CDM

– DRR

5

Belize, Guyana,Jamaica,CARIFORUM withCCCCC

Bangladesh, Bhutan,Cambodia, Laos,Maldives, Nepal,Mekong River

Where do we work?

Mozambique, Mali,Tanzania, Senegal,Rwanda, Ethiopia,Gambia, Benin, Uganda,Sierra Leone, DRC,Seychelles, Mauritius,COMESA,ECOWAS/CILLS,ClimDev Africa

Solomon Islands,Vanuatu, Samoa,University of SouthPacific, South PacificCommunity withSPREP Mainstreaming

programmes

Mainstreamingworkshops

Budget support

6

Lessons learned: aid effectiveness,mainstreaming & budget support

• Ownership: supporting beneficiary countries’ agendas

‒ National development or sector strategies

‒ National adaptation programmes of action (NAPAs)

• Alignment: using country systems

‒ Promoting CC integration into national dvpt planning & budgeting‒ Promoting CC integration into national dvpt planning & budgeting

• Country programmes

• Training workshops with ministries of finance

‒ Budget support for climate change

• Harmonisation: improved coordination (within EU, with other partners)

‒ Joint financing and joint programming

‒ Involvement of and delivery through regional organisations

=> Paving the way for scaled up climate change response throughdialogue, capacity building and actions

7

For info: criteria used forprioritising country programmes

• Eligibility limited to LDCs and/or SIDSrecipients of aid (according to the official OECD/DAC andUN lists)

• Vulnerability to climate change• Vulnerability to climate change

• Low adaptive capacity

• Political commitment to responding to CC

• Funds are allocated to the highest ranking countries,based on population figures and on availability ofresources

8

Global Climate Change AllianceSupport Facility

Module 1

Understanding climate change –

development linkages

Training workshops onmainstreaming climate change

development linkages

Adaptation, mitigation and vulnerabilityAdaptation, mitigation and vulnerability

2

Adaptation and mitigation

Humanactivities

AdaptationMitigation

Climate,environment &

natural resources

Impacts

3

Opportunities, risks& constraints

Vulnerability

•Age•Gender

•Social group

•Education

•Wealth

•Access toinformation and

++

+

Exposure Sensitivity Adaptive capacity

Resilienceinformation and

technology

•‘Built’ and ‘green’infrastructure

•Institutions

•Social organisation

•Culture

•Equity &(in)equality

•Development level

Adaptation Maladaptation

-

+-

4

Vulnerability

Resilience

Biophysical and socioeconomicimpacts

Biophysicalimpacts

Changes in t°

Changes in rainfallpatterns

Shifts in seasons

Socioeconomicimpacts

Damage to ordestruction ofinfrastructure

Reduced food security,malnutrition

VulnerabilityMore frequent or severestorms, floods, droughts

Raised sea level

Erosion, desertification

Changes in waterquality/availability

Changes in ecosystems

Biodiversity loss

Disease & pestoutbreaks, ...

malnutrition

Economic disruption,loss of livelihoods, social

disruption

Increased mortality andmorbidity

Reduced availability ofhydropower

Conflicts, populationdisplacement, human

migrations, ...

Vulnerabilityfactors

5

Examples of actual and potentialCC impacts in OCTs (1)

• Impacts on coastal ecosystems andinfrastructure, e.g.– storm damage to mangroves and reefs in the Caribbean and

the Pacific (with impacts on coastal fisheries)

– submersion of atolls in the Pacific, and of low-lying coastal– submersion of atolls in the Pacific, and of low-lying coastalareas in all countries/territories

– coral bleaching due to high temperatures

– damage from storms, sea surges and coastal flooding affectingcoastal infrastructure (incl. public and private buildings,harbours, airports, roads, power lines, ...), in particular in storm-prone areas

6Main source: Petit & Prudent (2008)

Examples of actual and potentialCC impacts in OCTs (2)

• Impacts on fishing and aquaculture, e.g.– migration of ocean fish stocks towards cooler waters

– reduced fish stocks due to lower phytoplankton production inwarmer Pacific waters

– changes in the distribution and abundance of coastal fish– changes in the distribution and abundance of coastal fishstocks in tropical regions (due to rising water temperature anddamage to habitats such as mangroves and coral reefs)

– increased mortality of pearl-producing oysters in the Pacific dueto high temperatures and reduced oxygen levels

7Main source: Petit & Prudent (2008)

Examples of actual and potentialCC impacts in OCTs (3)

• Impacts on agriculture, e.g.– destruction of banana and sugar cane plantations by

hurricanes in the Caribbean

– reduced yields of important root plants such as cassava, sweetpotatoes (Caribbean) or taro (Pacific)potatoes (Caribbean) or taro (Pacific)

– cricket invasions from the Sahel affecting Canary islands

– loss of agricultural land due to coastal flooding or submersionand increased salinity of coastal soils and aquifers (affecting alllow-lying coastal areas)

8Main source: Petit & Prudent (2008)

Examples of actual and potentialCC impacts in OCTs (4)

• Impacts on tourism, e.g.– damage to tourist infrastructure, notably along all coasts

exposed to tropical storms

– damage to or destruction of key natural resources that attracttourists (coral reefs, sandy beaches, forests, ...)tourists (coral reefs, sandy beaches, forests, ...)

– increased difficulties or costs in providing freshwater due to thesalinisation of coastal aquifers

– tourists deterred by less friendly climate (e.g. greater risk of fireor violent storm, heat waves) or higher health risks (e.g. fromvector-borne diseases)

– long-distance tourists deterred by carbon footprint and possiblyhigher flight costs (if kerosene or airplane carbon emissions aretaxed)

9Main source: Petit & Prudent (2008)

Examples of actual and potentialCC impacts in OCTs (5)

• Impacts on health, e.g.– increased exposure to vector-borne diseases as the range

or development of vectors changes (e.g. dengue fever in theCaribbean, malaria and Rift valley fever in the Indian ocean,risk of dengue and yellow fever in Madeira followingcolonisation by the Aedes aegypti mosquito)colonisation by the Aedes aegypti mosquito)

– increased risk of ciguatera poisoning due to the proliferation oftoxic micro-algae in the Indian and Pacific oceans

– increased exposure to poor-quality, contaminated water

– increased risk of food poisoning linked to higher temperatures

– increased prevalence of malnutrition resulting from impacts onagriculture, fisheries, hunting, and livelihoods in general

– increased risk of injury from storms, floods, wildfires, ...

10Main source: Petit & Prudent (2008)

CC as a source of opportunity...and new threats (1)

• St Pierre and Miquelon:

– Agriculture and tourism may benefit from highertemperatures – but impacts on fishing, the largest activity,may not be positive

• Greenland:• Greenland:

– Fishing may benefit from the shrinkage of sea ice andhigher primary plankton production in warmer waters – buttraditional hunting and fishing are likely to suffer

– Mining and oil exploration/exploitation operations will bemade easier by higher temperatures and the recession ofice – but this will create new environmental risks

11Main source: Petit & Prudent (2008)

CC as a source of opportunity...and new threats (2)

• Greenland (cont’d):

– The opening up of the North West Passage to sailingmay be a source of economic opportunity – but also athreat to the environment

– Tourism may benefit from higher temperatures – again a– Tourism may benefit from higher temperatures – again asource of opportunity but also threats (e.g. on theenvironment and traditional lifestyles)

12

Climate change, environment and developmentClimate change, environment and development

13

Environment – climate change –development linkages

Climate change:

- an environ-- an environ-mental issue

- a developmentissue

14

Source: MillenniumEcosystem

Assessment (2005)Figure B, p. 7.

Climate change and environment

• Climate change is a theme to be addressedwith other environmental issues:– Climate change exacerbates certain environmental trends

and problems

– Environmental management has an impact on climate change

15

Credit: Proyecto Rio Hurtado,EuropeAid Photo Library

Credit: Vietnamese journalist,EuropeAid Photo Library

Climate change and MDGs

Potential

Eradicateextreme poverty

& hunger

Reduce childmortality

Promote genderequality &

empower women

e.g. Adverseeffects on

food security

e.g. Increasedincidence ofwaterbornediseases

Potentialimpacts on

MDGs

Improvematernal

healthCombat major

diseases

Ensureenvironmentalsustainability

16

e.g. Dependenceon livelihoods put

at risk by CC

e.g. Higherincidence of

anaemia resultingfrom malaria

e.g. Heat-relatedmortality & illnesses e.g. Increased stress

on ecosystems andbiodiversity

Source: OECD (2009a)

The development–adaptationcontinuum

Vulnerability Response to impacts

Addressing thedrivers of

Building theresponse

Managing climaterisk

Specificallyconfronting

vulnerability

Developmentalbenefits

capacity

=> Developmentaland climate

adaptation benefits

(e.g. DRR)

=> Primarilyadaptation benefits,

developmentalbenefits as a ‘side

effect’

climate change

=> Quasi-exclusivefocus on very

specific CC impacts,adaptation benefits

only

Adapted from: McGray et al (2007), OECD (2009a), Olhoff & Schaer (2010)

17

Benefits in the absence of climate change100 0

Moving to climate-resilient,

low-emission development

18

Climate-resilient development

Biophysicalimpacts

Socioeconomicimpacts

Vulnerabilityfactors

The develop-ment pathaddresses

factors

Climate riskmanagement

Specificadaptationmeasures

Development(vulnerability

reduction)activities

Response capacity building

Climate riskmanagement

Specificadaptationmeasures

19

addressescurrent and

futurevulnerability,

risks andimpacts

Low-emission development

• Generally, the three ‘sectors’ that are thebiggest contributors to GHG emissionsare also the main targets for emissionreductions: The

develop-

• Country-specific emission patterns anddevelopment objectives should beconsidered to determine nationalmitigation priorities

20

Energy (fossil-fuel burning)

AgricultureLand use changeesp. deforestation

develop-ment pathaddressessources ofemissions

Adaptation and mitigation:seizing opportunities

• Green growth

– ‘A way to pursue economic growth and development,while preventing environmental degradation, biodiversityloss and unsustainable natural resource use’

• Green jobsSource: OECD (2010b)

• Green jobs

• Adaptation and mitigation as ‘opportunities’:development co-benefits

e.g. renewable energy

e.g. clean technologies

e.g. forestry (REDD+)

e.g. agricultural productivity

21

Adaptation and mitigation:developing synergies

• Quite frequently adaptation and mitigationmeasures are congruent and can produce a doublestream of benefits

– e.g. reduced tillage agriculture enhances carbon– e.g. reduced tillage agriculture enhances carbonsequestration in soils while supporting soil moistureretention, thus increasing resilience to dry spells

– e.g. sustainable reforestation may simultaneouslyenhance carbon stocks and, by offering new livelihoodopportunities, enhance the adaptive capacity of localcommunities

22

• IRACC: Initiative for smallholder agricultureadaptation to climate change in the Indian Oceanislands through the promotion of agroecology

Developing synergies in the IndianOcean: IRACC regional project (1)

• Promoters: Indian Ocean Commission / IFAD

23

Source: IOC/IFAD (2010) Presentation byR. Andriantahina, regional coordinatorWorkshop of 8-9 December 2010 in Mauritius(www.coi-ioc.org)

• Project target: smallholders in IOC memberstates and Zanzibar

Climateconstraints (*)

Productionconstraints

Marketing & tradeconstraints Demographic

Developing synergies in the IndianOcean: IRACC regional project (2)

24

constraints (*)

Agriculture

Fragile natural environmentPoor land use & planning practicesUnsuitable agricultural techniques

Fragile and vulnerable soils

constraints Demographicgrowth

Naturalecosystems

Socioeconomicactivities

(*) Shift in seasons,higher average

temperatures, erraticrainfall, early and long

drought periods, floods,storms and cyclones, ...

Response:-Agroecological

techniques-Notably permanent

soil cover

• Benefits of permanent soil cover:

– Increased resilience of agriculture to climate variability(notably through improved storage and retention of water and organic matter

in solis) => adaptation to CC

Developing synergies in the IndianOcean: IRACC regional project (3)

– Restoration and enhancement of soil fertility(independently from climate-related considerations)

– Possibility of using non-cultivated or degraded land

– Watershed protection

– Carbon sequestration in soils => contribution to CCmitigation

25

Adaptation and mitigation:ensuring complementarity

• Mitigation should:

– Be compatible with adaptation policies and requirements

– Rely on environmentally sustainable practices• e.g. unsustainable agrofuels may be a threat to food security,

water availability and ecosystemswater availability and ecosystems

– Not result in increased vulnerability to climate change

• Adaptation should:

– Take emissions into account• e.g. agricultural intensification for improved food security may

increase emissions from the use of fertilisers

• e.g. the increased adoption of air conditioning to adapt to heatwaves may result in increased emissions from fossil energy use

26

Moving to climate-resilient,low-emission development

• Both climate-resilient development and low-emission development result from mainstreamingclimate change in policymaking and planning

Adaptationmainstreaming

Mainstreaming ofclimate change

mitigation

Low-emissiondevelopment

Climate-resilientdevelopment

The twoapproaches arecomplementary

In both cases,focus on co-

benefits

27

Illustration: British Virgin Islands’climate change policy

28

References (1)

• Government of the Virgin Islands (2011) The Virgin Islands’ Climate Change Policy: AchievingLow-Carbon, Climate-Resilient Development. Prepared by the Conservation and FisheriesDepartment, Ministry of Natural Resources and Labour [author: Angela Burnett Penn]. Technicalreport 5C/ECACC-11-10-1, Caribbean Community Climate Change Centre, Belmopan, Belize.Available from: http://www.caribbeanclimate.bz/projects/enhancing-capacity-for-adaptation-to-climate-change-ecacc-in-the-uk-caribbean-overseas-territories-project.html

• IOC (2010) Initiative pour l’adaptation des systèmes de production des petits agriculteurs aux• IOC (2010) Initiative pour l’adaptation des systèmes de production des petits agriculteurs auxchangements climatiques dans les îles de l’océan indien. Presentation on the IRACC project’sreference sites. Workshop in Quatre Bornes, Mauritius, 8-9 December 2010. Indian OceanCommission. Available from: http://www.coi-ioc.org

• McGray H., Hammill A. & Bradley R. (2007) Weathering the Storm: Options for FramingAdaptation and Development. World Resources Institute, Washington, DC. Available from:http://pdf.wri.org/weathering_the_storm.pdf

• Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (2005) Ecosystems and Human Well-being: Synthesis. IslandPress, Washington, DC. Available from: http://www.maweb.org/en/Synthesis.aspx

• OECD (2009a) Integrating Climate Change Adaptation into Development Co-operation: Policyguidance. OECD Publishing, Paris. [Read-only, browse-it edition] Available from:http://browse.oecdbookshop.org/oecd/pdfs/browseit/4309171E.PDF

29

References (2)

• OECD (2010b) Interim Report of the Green Growth Strategy: Implementing our commitment for asustainable future. Meeting of the OECD Council at Ministerial Level, 27-28 May 2010.C/MIN(2010)5. Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development, Paris. Available from:http://www.oecd.org/document/3/0,3343,en_2649_37465_45196035_1_1_1_1,00.html

• Olhoff A. & Schaer C. (2010) Screening tools and guidelines to support the mainstreaming ofclimate change adaptation into development assistance: A stocktaking report. Environment &Energy Group, United Nations Development Programme, New York. Available from:Energy Group, United Nations Development Programme, New York. Available from:http://www.undp.org/climatechange/library_integrating_cc.shtml

• Petit J. & Prudent G. (eds) (2008, reprint 2010) Climate Change and Biodiversity in the EuropeanUnion Overseas Entities. IUCN, Gland, Switzerland and Brussels, Belgium. Available from:http://data.iucn.org/dbtw-wpd/edocs/2010-064.pdf

30

Global Climate Change AllianceSupport Facility

Module 2

Mainstreaming climate change

and strengthening institutions

and capacitiesand capacities

Training workshops onmainstreaming climate change

What is mainstreaming,

and why mainstream climate change?

2

From project-based approaches...

• Project-based adaptation approaches such asthose developed in NAPAs are a first step in theright direction:

– Contribution to national capacity building

– Involvement of stakeholders at grassroots level

– Identified projects usually correspond to real prioritiesand involve wider developmental benefits

• But there are also problems, notably:

– Poor institutional arrangements for implementation

– Low capacity for adaptation planning andimplementation

Source: World Bank (2010a) WDR 20103

... to climate change mainstreaming

• In the medium and long term, standalone projectsare unlikely to meet all adaptation and mitigationrequirements in a cost-effective, scalable manner

• There is a strong case for mainstreaming climate• There is a strong case for mainstreaming climatechange into all development planning, both atstrategic planning levels and in local development

4

What is mainstreaming?

• The mainstream: the prevailing or dominantcourse, current, tendency or way of thinking

• Mainstreaming: the informed integration of arelevant value, theme or concern into the decisionsrelevant value, theme or concern into the decisionsof institutions that drive national, local and sectoraldevelopment policy, rules, plans, investment andaction (adapted from Dalal-Clayton & Bass 2009)

• Institutional strengthening and change and capacitybuilding are at the heart of any mainstreaming effort

5

Objectives of mainstreaming

• Mainstreaming is a long-term, iterativeprocess aimed at:

– transforming ideas

– even more importantly, transforming policies, resource– even more importantly, transforming policies, resourceallocations and practices

• in order to:

– promote desired developmental outcomes (with regard togender, environment, climate change, governance,human rights, ...)

– and support integrated solutions to human problems

6

Caribbean – Mainstreaming andAdaptation to CC (MACC) project

• 2004-2008, executed by the CARICOMSecretariat (World Bank support, GEF funding)

• Objective:

– Mainstream CC adaptation strategies into the sustainable– Mainstream CC adaptation strategies into the sustainabledevelopment agendas of the small island and low-lyingstates of CARICOM

• Approach:

– Learning-by-doing approach to capacity building

– Strengthening of the knowledge base

– Public education and outreach

7Source: http://www.caribbeanclimate.bz/macc/macc.html

A framework for mainstreaming

climate change

8

Entry points for mainstreaming inthe policy cycle

Agendasetting

Finding theentry points &

making thecase

MainstreamingCC into policy &

planningprocesses

9

Nationaldevelopment

planning

Policymaking

Implementation& monitoringMeeting the

implementationchallenge

Adapted from: UNDP-UNEP (2009) Figure 3.2, p. 15

Finding the entrypoints and making the

case

Mainstreaming CC intopolicy and planning

processes

Meeting theimplementation

challenge

Preliminary assessmentsUnderstanding CC–

development linkagesUnderstanding the science

Understanding climate-related uncertainties

Raising awareness andbuilding partnerships

Collecting country-specificevidence and influencing

policy processesMainstreaming CC in

(sub)national and sectorpolicies, strategies,

programmes

Costing, assessing and

Budgeting and financingMainstreaming CC in the

budgetary process

Mainstreaming CC inmonitoring systems

Performance assessmentframeworks

Mod1

Mod4

Mod5

Mod6 Mod8

Mod9

Mod3

building partnershipsNational consensus andcommitment to climate-resilient, low-emission

development

Strengthening institutionsand capacities

Needs assessmentWorking mechanisms

Costing, assessing andselecting adaptation andmitigation options and

measures

Strengthening institutionsand capacities

Learning by doing

Supporting policy measuresNational, sector and sub-

national levels

Strengthening institutionsand capacitiesMainstreaming

as standard practice

Engaging stakeholders and coordinating within the development community

Mod5

Mod2

Mod7

Adapted from: UNDP-UNEP (2009) Figure 3.1, p. 1510

Mod2 Mod2

Strengthening institutions and capacitiesStrengthening institutions and capacities

11

Terminology

• Institutions

– the rules, norms, structures and other social arrangementsthat shape and regulate human behaviour andinteractions, and notably support decision making

– institutions ≠ organisations

– institutions can be formal or informal

• Institutional framework

– a system made up of rules, laws, policies and institutions,in which various organisations interact with each other

12

Key institutional requirementsfor effective mainstreaming

Effective

Cross-sectoral& cross-levelcoordination,cooperation

Powerfulchampions atnational level Integration of

new thinking,new researchin planning &monitoring

e.g. office of prime minister,ministries of

finance/budget/planning

Effectivemainstreaming

monitoringsystems &processes

Experiencesharing,

disseminationof good

practices Timelystakeholder

participation atvarious scales

Strengtheningof capacities ofstakeholders atvarious scales

13

Principles for institutionalising

climate change mainstreaming

Source: UNDP-UNEP (2011)

14

Which institutional model?

• There is no single, ‘blueprint’ institutional modelfor effective mainstreaming of climate change

• Each country has to determine the most suitableinstitutional arrangements based on:institutional arrangements based on:

– current institutional structures

– a clear diagnosis of their strengths and weaknesses

– a clear plan for overall governance improvement

• However, there are some agreed principles andexamples of good practice

15

Principles for institutionaland capacity strengthening (1)

• Move coordination of climate adaptation/mitigationto a central body with a coordination mandate anddecision-making power over line ministries

– e.g. China: National Development & Reform Commission– e.g. China: National Development & Reform Commission

– e.g. Kenya: Office of the President

• Establish or strengthen coordination mechanisms,with a clear allocation of responsibilities andpermanent arrangements

– e.g. Mexico: Inter-Ministerial Commission on ClimateChange (CICC) with dedicated working groups

16Source: UNDP-UNEP (2011)

Principles for institutionaland capacity strengthening (2)

• Build on pre-existing intersectoral coordinationmechanisms wherever possible

– e.g. coordination structures for food security, disaster riskreduction and management, sustainable landmanagement, environmental management

• Institutionalise flexibility

– e.g. commitment to regular policy/strategy revisions andreassessment of available knowledge

• Institutionalise adaptation/mitigation mainstreaming

– e.g. in guidelines, procedures, systems, criteria forscreening and prioritising programmes and projects

17Source: UNDP-UNEP (2011)

Principles for institutionaland capacity strengthening (3)

• Develop effective national–local coordinationmechanisms, identifying the most suitable level atwhich to cooperate/coordinate

– e.g. Rwanda: annual performance contracts between– e.g. Rwanda: annual performance contracts betweenvarious levels of government, with clear definition of goals,indicators and activities

• Strengthen institutions at the sub-national level,matching the transfer of competences with thetransfer of resources

18Source: UNDP-UNEP (2011)

BVI – Diagnosis of the institutionaland legal/regulatory framework (1)

• Stakeholders:

– At least 17 government and statutory bodiesto be involved in CC adaptation – plus several inter-agency committees or bodies

• Legal and regulatory framework:

– New Environmental Management and Conservation ofBiodiversity Bill will support adaptation when enacted

– Building Regulations and Development Control Guidelinesoutdated, new planning regulations to be adopted

– Enforcement of planning and building legislation to beimproved

19Source: Burnett Penn (2010)

BVI – Diagnosis of the institutionaland legal/regulatory framework (2)

• Key management gaps:

– A comprehensive coastal management plan

– Specific management plans for beaches (work ongoing)

– A sustainable management programme for fish stocks– A sustainable management programme for fish stocks

– Management plans for Fisheries Protected Areas

– A comprehensive land use and physical development planinclusive of zoning (draft prepared in 2009)

20Source: Burnett Penn (2010)

BVI – Institutional arrangementsfor CC policy implementation

• National Climate Change Committee(NCCC) created in Dec. 2008

– Chaired by the Ministry of Natural Resources and Labour,to be co-chaired by the Premier’s Office

– Monitors and advises government on CC-related issues– Monitors and advises government on CC-related issues

– Responsible for coordinating and supervising theimplementation of the CC policy, incl. CC mainstreaminginto national development planning

– Recommendation: operate as a joint sub-committee of theexisting Technical Review Committee (under the Min. of

Natural Resources) and the Planning Authority (under thePremier’s Office)

21Source: Government of Virgin Islands (2011)

Tools and actions for supporting institutional and

capacity strengthening

22

Steps in institutional and capacitystrengthening

Needs assessment

Workingmechanisms

National capacity self-assessment

Inst’l arrangementsManagementframework

Stakeholderanalysis

23Source: UNDP-UNEP (2009)

Learning by doing

mechanisms

Mainstreaming asstandard practice

frameworkWork plan

Training, exchangevisits, on-the-joblearning, lesson

learning/dissemination

Needs assessment: capacitydevelopment for whom, for what?

• Capacity development (CD) should take placeat three complementary levels:

– the ‘enabling environment’ or ‘system level’ (overallinstitutional level)

– the organisation level

– the individual level

24

Start by determining:

‘Capacity developmentfor what?’ -> Define

specific objectives

Source: UNDP (2011)

Needs assessment: stakeholders’CD needs for mainstreaming

Stakeholder

Informationsystems &analytical

skills

Planning &prioritisation

skillsParticipatory

engagement &empowerment

skillsStakeholder

capacitybuilding

skills

Political &communication

skills

Monitoring,evaluation &

learning skills

Specifictechnical

skills

25Source: Dalal-Clayton & Bass (2009)

‘FUNCTIONAL

CAPACITIES’‘TECHNICAL

CAPACITIES’

Tips for strengthening capacitiesin OCTs (1)

• Draw on resources and join initiativesat the regional level, e.g.

– Greenland’s participation in the Arctic Climate ImpactAssessment (ACIA, 2005)

– Use of the expertise of the Caribbean Community Climate– Use of the expertise of the Caribbean Community ClimateChange Centre (CCCCC) by British Caribbean OCTs (e.g.ECACC project)

– Participation of Pacific OCTs in some projects of theSecretariat of the Pacific Regional EnvironmentalProgramme (SPREP) and SPC work on climate-relatedissues (e.g. recent study on Pacific fisheries)

26

Sources: http://www.acia.uaf.edu, http://www.caribbeanclimate.bz, Bell, Johnson & Hobday (2011)

Tips for strengthening capacitiesin OCTs (2)

• Draw on resources and join initiativesof European countries, e.g.

– British OCTs: possible collaboration with the HadleyCentre, the Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research,and the UK Climate Impacts Programmeand the UK Climate Impacts Programme

27

Source: http://www.caribbeanclimate.bz/projects/enhancing-capacity-for-adaptation-to-climate-change-ecacc-in-the-uk-caribbean-overseas-territories-project.html

Tips for strengthening capacitiesin OCTs (3)

• Strengthen regional institutions involvedin the response to CC, e.g.

– Caribbean Institute for Meteorology and Hydrology

– Establish master-level climate change courses in regionaluniversitiesuniversities

– Develop regional capacity to downscale from globalclimate models and prepare country- or territory-specificclimate scenarios

– Develop cross-regional links between organisationsrepresenting small island states (e.g. collaboration betweenCCCCC and SPREP)

28Source: GCSI Global Change Strategies Int’l & de Romilly & de Romilly Ltd (2005)

References (1)

• Bell J.D., Johnson J.E. & Hobday A. (2011) Vulnerability of Tropical Pacific Fisheries andAquaculture to Climate Change. Secretariat of the Pacific Community, Noumea, NewCaledonia. Available from: http://cdn.spc.int/climate-change/fisheries/assessment/climate-change-book.pdf

• Burnett Penn A. (2010) The Virgin Islands Climate Change Green Paper. Prepared by theConservation and Fisheries Department, Ministry of Natural Resources and Labour. CaribbeanCommunity Climate Change Centre, Belmopan, Belize, and Government of the Virgin Islands.Community Climate Change Centre, Belmopan, Belize, and Government of the Virgin Islands.Available from: http://www.caribbeanclimate.bz/projects/enhancing-capacity-for-adaptation-to-climate-change-ecacc-in-the-uk-caribbean-overseas-territories-project.html

• Dalal-Clayton B. & Bass S. (2009) The challenges of environmental mainstreaming: experienceof integrating environment into development institutions and decisions. International Institute forEnvironment and Development, London. Available from: http://www.environmental-mainstreaming.org/key-lit.html

• GCSI Global Change Strategies Int’l & de Romilly & de Romilly Ltd (2005) Adapting to ClimateChange in the Caribbean (ACCC). Report prepared for the Canadian International DevelopmentAgency (CIDA). Available from: http://www.caribbeanclimate.bz/accc/accc.html

29

References (2)

• Government of the Virgin Islands (2011) The Virgin Islands’ Climate Change Policy: AchievingLow-Carbon, Climate-Resilient Development. Prepared by the Conservation and FisheriesDepartment, Ministry of Natural Resources and Labour [author: Angela Burnett Penn]. Technicalreport 5C/ECACC-11-10-1, Caribbean Community Climate Change Centre, Belmopan, Belize.Available from: http://www.caribbeanclimate.bz/projects/enhancing-capacity-for-adaptation-to-climate-change-ecacc-in-the-uk-caribbean-overseas-territories-project.html

• Schipper E.L., Paz Cigarán M. & McKenzie Hedger M. (2008) Adaptation to Climate Change:The new challenge for development in the developing world. Environment & Energy Group,The new challenge for development in the developing world. Environment & Energy Group,United Nations Development Programme, New York. Available from:http://www.undp.org/climatechange/docs/English/UNDP_Adaptation_final.pdf

• UNDP (2011) Practitioner’s Guide: Capacity Development for Environmental Sustainability.United Nations Development Programme, New York. Available from:http://www.undp.org/mainstreaming/cdes.shtml

• UNDP-UNEP (2009) Mainstreaming Poverty-Environment Linkages into DevelopmentPlanning: A Handbook for Practitioners. UNDP-UNEP Poverty-Environment Initiative. Availablefrom: http://www.unpei.org/PDF/PEI-full-handbook.pdf

• UNDP-UNEP (2011) Mainstreaming Adaptation to Climate Change into Development Planning:A Guide for Practitioners. UNDP-UNEP Poverty-Environment Initiative. Available from:http://www.unpei.org/knowledge-resources/publications.html

30

References (3)

• World Bank (2010a) Development and Climate Change. World Development Report 2010.World Bank, Washington, DC. Available from: http://go.worldbank.org/ZXULQ9SCC0

• Website of the Arctic Climate Impact Assessment: http://www.acia.uaf.edu/

• Website of the Caribbean Community Climate Change Centre:http://www.caribbeanclimate.bz/macc/macc.html

31

Global Climate Change AllianceSupport Facility

Module 3

Understanding the basics

of climate change scienceof climate change science

Training workshops onmainstreaming climate change

Is climate change real?

• IPCC 4th Assessment Report:

– “Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, as is nowevident from observations of increases in global averageair and ocean temperatures, widespread melting of snowand ice and rising global average sea level”.and ice and rising global average sea level”.

• Observed trends:

– Recent years warmest on record

– Accelerating increase in global surface temperature andocean temperature

– Accelerating rise in sea level

2

Some observations: trends inglobal mean temperature

Source: IPCC (2007b) 4th

Assessment Report,WG I – FAQ 3.1 Fig. 1

3

Observations and projections:global sea level change

Source: IPCC(2007b) 4th

AssessmentReport, WG I –FAQ 5.1 Fig. 1

4

Observations: intensity of cyclones

Worldwide: %age of Category 1 cyclone (blue curve), sum of Category 2 and 3 (green curve),sum of category 4 and 5 (red curve) on 5 years period. Dashed lines are averages for eachcategory from 1970 to 2004 (Source: Petit & Prudent 2008, p. 42, from Webster et al 2005)

5

What are the causes of climatechange?

• Natural variation is an inherent feature of theclimate (e.g. driven by solar cycles, earth orbit, volcanoes)

• But anthropogenic emissions of long-livedgreenhouse gases in the atmosphere are a majorgreenhouse gases in the atmosphere are a majorcause of the changes now being observed

6

The greenhouse effect

7

Source: WWF/IPCC,http://wwf.panda.org/about_our_earth/aboutcc/how_cc_works/

What are the main greenhousegases?

• By decreasing order of abundance:

– water vapour (H2O)

– carbon dioxide (CO2)

– methane (CH4)– methane (CH4)

– nitrous oxide (N2O)

– ozone (O3)

– chlorofluorocarbons (CFC)

– other halogenated compounds (i.e. gases containing fluorine,

chlorine, bromine or iodine) (e.g. hydrofluorocarbons – HFC,sulphur hexafluoride – SF6)

8

Evolution of GHG concentrations

Source: IPCC(2007b) 4th

AssessmentReport, WG I –FAQ 2.1 Fig. 1

9

Globally, what are the main sourcesof GHG emissions?

Source: Herzog (2005) – World Resources Institute

10

What are the main consequences?

Biophysicalimpacts

Changes in t°

Changes in rainfallpatterns

Shifts in seasons

Socioeconomicimpacts

Damage to or destructionof infrastructure

Reduced food security,malnutrition

Economic disruption, lossMore frequent or severestorms, floods, droughts

Raised sea level

Erosion, desertification

Changes in waterquality/availability

Changes in ecosystems

Biodiversity loss

Disease & pest outbreaks,...

Economic disruption, lossof livelihoods, social

disruption

Increased mortality andmorbidity

Reduced availability ofhydropower

Conflicts, populationdisplacement, human

migrations, ...

11

References

• Herzog T. (2005) World Greenhouse Gas Emissions in 2005. Working paper, World ResourcesInstitute, Washington, DC. Available from: http://www.wri.org/publication/world-greenhouse-gas-emissions-in-2005

• IPCC (2007a) Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and IIto the Fourth Assessment Report. [Core Writing Team, Pachaury R.K. & Reisinger A. (eds.)]Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Geneva. Available from: www.ipcc.ch

• IPCC (2007b) Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working GroupI to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [SolomonS., Qin D., Manning M., Chen Z., Marquis M., Averyt K.B. , Tignor M. & Miller H.L. (eds.)].Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK & New York, NY, USA. Available from: www.ipcc.ch

• Petit J. & Prudent G. (eds) (2008, reprint 2010) Climate Change and Biodiversity in the EuropeanUnion Overseas Entities. IUCN, Gland, Switzerland and Brussels, Belgium. Available from:http://data.iucn.org/dbtw-wpd/edocs/2010-064.pdf

• WWF – Climate change explained: http://wwf.panda.org/about_our_earth/aboutcc/how_cc_works/

12

Global Climate Change AllianceSupport Facility

Module 4

Understanding and planning

under uncertaintyunder uncertainty

Training workshops onmainstreaming climate change

Sources of uncertaintySources of uncertainty

2

Socio-economic uncertainties

• Socio-economic uncertainties (e.g. related to futurepopulation growth, economic growth, technological

choices, societal choices, international relations):

– influence the level of future emissions and thus the– influence the level of future emissions and thus themagnitude of climate change

– also, create uncertainties about future vulnerability toclimate change

3

IPCC GHG emission scenarios

Source: IPCC (2007a) 4thAssessment report –

Synthesis report, Fig. 3.1

4

Climate uncertainties

• For any given emission scenario, differentatmosphere-ocean general circulation models(AOGCMs) provide different projections of futurechange – sometimes very different oneschange – sometimes very different ones

• Due to the complexity of the climate system,many uncertainties prevail and will persist overthe evolution of climate

5

Uncertainties in climate changeprojections

• Temperatures and sea levels:

– consensus that they will increase

– magnitude of the increase quite uncertain

• Rainfall:

– expected to increase overall

– but some regions are likely to get more and some less

– for many regions in the world, uncertainty about thedirection of change

• Changes in extreme parameters:

– average future conditions are easier to project thanextremes

6

Problems associated withdownscaling

• AOGCMs produce projections of future climatechange for large areas (e.g. 200x200 km) – but usedalone, do not allow the downscaling of projections tolocal and regional scales (e.g. 10x10 km, 100x100 km)local and regional scales (e.g. 10x10 km, 100x100 km)

• Downscaling requires extra data and efforts

– In developing countries, the data needed to downscaleprojections of climate change to the local or regional levelare often missing

– The level of uncertainty is greater at downscaled levelsthan at large scales

7

Planning in the face of uncertaintiesPlanning in the face of uncertainties

8

The cost of inaction

• The uncertainties surrounding climate changeare often invoked to justify inaction

• In a medium- to long-term perspective, however,inaction now is likely to be more costly:inaction now is likely to be more costly:

9

*Wasted investment*Increased vulnerability

Failure to adapt

*More harmful impacts*Higher adaptation costs

Failure to reduce emissions

The benefits of action

• Some climate adaptation and mitigationmeasures are expected to provide developmentalbenefits, regardless of the scope and magnitude ofclimate change or, as far as mitigation is concerned,climate change or, as far as mitigation is concerned,regardless of carbon prices

• Even in the face of uncertainty, some types ofmeasures are justified

10

Justified measures in the face ofuncertainty (1)

• ‘No-regret’ measures:

– those expected to produce net benefits for societyeven in the absence of climate change (adaptation) orindependently of any ‘reward’ for mitigation (zero ornegative net cost at a zero carbon price)

• ‘Low-regret’ measures:

– those expected to have a cost for society, but anacceptable one in view of the benefits they would bring ifclimate change turns out to produce significant effects(adaptation), or to have a low net cost at zero or lowcarbon prices (mitigation)

11

Justified measures in the face ofuncertainty (2)

• ‘Robust’ measures:

– those that produce net benefits or deliver good outcomesacross various possible climate change or carbon pricescenarios and economic development scenarios (ratherthan just under the ‘most likely’ scenario)than just under the ‘most likely’ scenario)

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Adaptive management

• Adaptive management: a flexible andpragmatic type of management, aimed atcontinually improving management policies andpractices, on the basis of ‘learning by doing’

– Uses pilot projects and experiments; results and– Uses pilot projects and experiments; results andoutcomes are analysed and lessons learnt beforescaling up or adjusting responses

– Involves robustness as a decision criterion, the inclusionof safety margins in investment and the choice ofreversible/flexible options

• Well suited to situations involving uncertainties

13

Scenario-based planning (1)

• To support the choice of adaptation measures,scenarios reflecting prevailing uncertainties canalso be developed, e.g.

14

1) No change2) Moderate change3) High change

1) No change2) Temperatures up, rainfall up3) Temperatures up, rainfall down

Scenario-based planning (2)

Contents of scenarios Scenario development

Changes in climateconditions

Key experts with arange of technical skills

15

conditions

Resulting biophysicaleffects

Resulting socio-economic impacts

range of technical skills

Other nationalstakeholders

for their knowledge oflocal conditions

(e.g. government and civilsociety organisations)

Scenario-based planning (3)

Once scenarios have been designed:

1) Identify potentially suitableadaptation or mitigation options

16

2) Calculate costs and benefitsfor each chosen scenarios

3) Compare costs and benefitsacross the various scenarios

4) Identify no-regret, low-regretand robust options/measures

Use of scenarios: Samoa casestudy (1)

Exhibit 1 – Scenarios for long-term sea level rise in Samoa; in the highchange case, sea level might rise by up to ~26cm by 2030

Today’s climatescenario

2030 estimated sea level rise against 2008 levelCentimeters

0.9

Sea level rise scenarios in Samoa by 2030 compared to 2008

00 2.02.0

Yearly sea level riseMillimeters

SOURCES: IPCC 4th AR; Rahmstorf (2009); CSIRO; team analysis

Moderate changescenario based onA2 scenariowithout ice flow

High changescenario based onA2 scenario withice flow

3.5

11.9

Sea levelrise inSamoa

26.2

Geologicalsubsidencein Samoa

2.0

Correctionfor localeffect inSamoa

0

Globalseal levelrise

24.2

7.68.12.0-2.5

Source: Economics of Climate Adaptation (2009) Test case on Samoa –Focus on risks caused by sea level rise, Fig. 01, p. 121

17

Use of scenarios: Samoa casestudy (2)

Today’sclimatescenario

Horizontal retraction of freshwater lens due to sealevel rise, in meters

2 to 3

0 to 1

3 to 5

Savai’i

Upolu

Exhibit 2 – The freshwater lens is expected to retract by ~ 30 meters inUpolu and ~10 meters in Savai'i by 2030

ΔL

),m

120

140

160

180

Currentaverage

10% decrease(minimum annualrainfall projectedby global climate

model)

10% increase(maximum annualrainfall projectedby global climate

model)

However, salinization is highly sensitive to changes inaverage annual rainfall

SOURCE: Team analysis; CMIP3 global models

Moderatechangescenario

Highchangescenario

5 to 10

3 to 5

25 to 35

10 to 15

Both depth and location,particularly distance from coast)

will affect the salinization ofindividual wells

Annual rainfall, m

Sh

ift

of

len

s(Δ

0

20

40

60

80

100

2.6 2.7 2.8 2.9 3.0 3.1 3.2 3.3 3.4

A 10% decrease in rainfall coulddouble the expected horizontal

retraction of the freshwater lens inthe high change scenario

Source: Economics of Climate Adaptation (2009) Test case on Samoa –Focus on risks caused by sea level rise, Fig. 02, p. 122

18

References

• Economics of Climate Adaptation Working Group (2009) Shaping climate-resilient development: aframework for decision-making. Climate Works Foundation, Global Environment Facility, EuropeanCommission, McKinsey & Company, The Rockfeller Foundation, Standard Chartered Bank &Swiss Re. Available from:http://www.mckinsey.com/clientservice/Social_Sector/our_practices/Economic_Development/Knowledge_Highlights/Economics_of_climate_adaptation.aspxledge_Highlights/Economics_of_climate_adaptation.aspx

• IPCC (2007a) Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and IIto the Fourth Assessment Report. [Core Writing Team, Pachaury R.K. & Reisinger A. (eds.)]Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Geneva. Available from: www.ipcc.ch

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