Global Climate Change AllianceSupport Facility
General introduction
Training workshops onmainstreaming climate change
Workshop objectives
• You are more:– aware of the benefits and the challenges of
mainstreaming climate change adaptation and mitigationin national development planning and budgeting
– familiar with a framework and tools available for– familiar with a framework and tools available formainstreaming climate change
– motivated and better equipped to contribute to thismainstreaming process
• You also:– share your views, knowledge and experience
– provide insights and feedback to the EC on climatechange mainstreaming
2
What is the GCCA?What is the GCCA?
3
Enhanced dialogue with developingcountries on climate change
• First pillar of the Global Climate ChangeAlliance (GCCA)
• Promote a convergence of visions on a post-2012 climatechange regime between the EU and partner countries
• Regional conferences, policy dialogues and joint• Regional conferences, policy dialogues and jointdeclarations– Asia, May 2010
– Africa, Oct 2010
– Pacific, March 2011 (e.g. specific dialogue on climate finance andaid effectiveness)
– Caribbean, April 2011
• National policy dialogue (see pillar 2)
4
Increased support for climatechange
• Second pillar of the GCCA
• € 200 million (2008-2011)
• € 60+ million (2012-2013)
• Promote approaches to integrate climate change intodevelopment planning and budgetingdevelopment planning and budgeting– Mainstreaming programmes and workshops
• Focus on:– integration of climate change in poverty reduction and development
efforts
– adaptation – notably in water and agriculture
– REDD and participation in the CDM
– DRR
5
Belize, Guyana,Jamaica,CARIFORUM withCCCCC
Bangladesh, Bhutan,Cambodia, Laos,Maldives, Nepal,Mekong River
Where do we work?
Mozambique, Mali,Tanzania, Senegal,Rwanda, Ethiopia,Gambia, Benin, Uganda,Sierra Leone, DRC,Seychelles, Mauritius,COMESA,ECOWAS/CILLS,ClimDev Africa
Solomon Islands,Vanuatu, Samoa,University of SouthPacific, South PacificCommunity withSPREP Mainstreaming
programmes
Mainstreamingworkshops
Budget support
6
Lessons learned: aid effectiveness,mainstreaming & budget support
• Ownership: supporting beneficiary countries’ agendas
‒ National development or sector strategies
‒ National adaptation programmes of action (NAPAs)
• Alignment: using country systems
‒ Promoting CC integration into national dvpt planning & budgeting‒ Promoting CC integration into national dvpt planning & budgeting
• Country programmes
• Training workshops with ministries of finance
‒ Budget support for climate change
• Harmonisation: improved coordination (within EU, with other partners)
‒ Joint financing and joint programming
‒ Involvement of and delivery through regional organisations
=> Paving the way for scaled up climate change response throughdialogue, capacity building and actions
7
For info: criteria used forprioritising country programmes
• Eligibility limited to LDCs and/or SIDSrecipients of aid (according to the official OECD/DAC andUN lists)
• Vulnerability to climate change• Vulnerability to climate change
• Low adaptive capacity
• Political commitment to responding to CC
• Funds are allocated to the highest ranking countries,based on population figures and on availability ofresources
8
Global Climate Change AllianceSupport Facility
Module 1
Understanding climate change –
development linkages
Training workshops onmainstreaming climate change
development linkages
Adaptation, mitigation and vulnerabilityAdaptation, mitigation and vulnerability
2
Adaptation and mitigation
Humanactivities
AdaptationMitigation
Climate,environment &
natural resources
Impacts
3
Opportunities, risks& constraints
Vulnerability
•Age•Gender
•Social group
•Education
•Wealth
•Access toinformation and
++
+
Exposure Sensitivity Adaptive capacity
Resilienceinformation and
technology
•‘Built’ and ‘green’infrastructure
•Institutions
•Social organisation
•Culture
•Equity &(in)equality
•Development level
Adaptation Maladaptation
-
+-
4
Vulnerability
Resilience
Biophysical and socioeconomicimpacts
Biophysicalimpacts
Changes in t°
Changes in rainfallpatterns
Shifts in seasons
Socioeconomicimpacts
Damage to ordestruction ofinfrastructure
Reduced food security,malnutrition
VulnerabilityMore frequent or severestorms, floods, droughts
Raised sea level
Erosion, desertification
Changes in waterquality/availability
Changes in ecosystems
Biodiversity loss
Disease & pestoutbreaks, ...
malnutrition
Economic disruption,loss of livelihoods, social
disruption
Increased mortality andmorbidity
Reduced availability ofhydropower
Conflicts, populationdisplacement, human
migrations, ...
Vulnerabilityfactors
5
Examples of actual and potentialCC impacts in OCTs (1)
• Impacts on coastal ecosystems andinfrastructure, e.g.– storm damage to mangroves and reefs in the Caribbean and
the Pacific (with impacts on coastal fisheries)
– submersion of atolls in the Pacific, and of low-lying coastal– submersion of atolls in the Pacific, and of low-lying coastalareas in all countries/territories
– coral bleaching due to high temperatures
– damage from storms, sea surges and coastal flooding affectingcoastal infrastructure (incl. public and private buildings,harbours, airports, roads, power lines, ...), in particular in storm-prone areas
6Main source: Petit & Prudent (2008)
Examples of actual and potentialCC impacts in OCTs (2)
• Impacts on fishing and aquaculture, e.g.– migration of ocean fish stocks towards cooler waters
– reduced fish stocks due to lower phytoplankton production inwarmer Pacific waters
– changes in the distribution and abundance of coastal fish– changes in the distribution and abundance of coastal fishstocks in tropical regions (due to rising water temperature anddamage to habitats such as mangroves and coral reefs)
– increased mortality of pearl-producing oysters in the Pacific dueto high temperatures and reduced oxygen levels
7Main source: Petit & Prudent (2008)
Examples of actual and potentialCC impacts in OCTs (3)
• Impacts on agriculture, e.g.– destruction of banana and sugar cane plantations by
hurricanes in the Caribbean
– reduced yields of important root plants such as cassava, sweetpotatoes (Caribbean) or taro (Pacific)potatoes (Caribbean) or taro (Pacific)
– cricket invasions from the Sahel affecting Canary islands
– loss of agricultural land due to coastal flooding or submersionand increased salinity of coastal soils and aquifers (affecting alllow-lying coastal areas)
8Main source: Petit & Prudent (2008)
Examples of actual and potentialCC impacts in OCTs (4)
• Impacts on tourism, e.g.– damage to tourist infrastructure, notably along all coasts
exposed to tropical storms
– damage to or destruction of key natural resources that attracttourists (coral reefs, sandy beaches, forests, ...)tourists (coral reefs, sandy beaches, forests, ...)
– increased difficulties or costs in providing freshwater due to thesalinisation of coastal aquifers
– tourists deterred by less friendly climate (e.g. greater risk of fireor violent storm, heat waves) or higher health risks (e.g. fromvector-borne diseases)
– long-distance tourists deterred by carbon footprint and possiblyhigher flight costs (if kerosene or airplane carbon emissions aretaxed)
9Main source: Petit & Prudent (2008)
Examples of actual and potentialCC impacts in OCTs (5)
• Impacts on health, e.g.– increased exposure to vector-borne diseases as the range
or development of vectors changes (e.g. dengue fever in theCaribbean, malaria and Rift valley fever in the Indian ocean,risk of dengue and yellow fever in Madeira followingcolonisation by the Aedes aegypti mosquito)colonisation by the Aedes aegypti mosquito)
– increased risk of ciguatera poisoning due to the proliferation oftoxic micro-algae in the Indian and Pacific oceans
– increased exposure to poor-quality, contaminated water
– increased risk of food poisoning linked to higher temperatures
– increased prevalence of malnutrition resulting from impacts onagriculture, fisheries, hunting, and livelihoods in general
– increased risk of injury from storms, floods, wildfires, ...
10Main source: Petit & Prudent (2008)
CC as a source of opportunity...and new threats (1)
• St Pierre and Miquelon:
– Agriculture and tourism may benefit from highertemperatures – but impacts on fishing, the largest activity,may not be positive
• Greenland:• Greenland:
– Fishing may benefit from the shrinkage of sea ice andhigher primary plankton production in warmer waters – buttraditional hunting and fishing are likely to suffer
– Mining and oil exploration/exploitation operations will bemade easier by higher temperatures and the recession ofice – but this will create new environmental risks
11Main source: Petit & Prudent (2008)
CC as a source of opportunity...and new threats (2)
• Greenland (cont’d):
– The opening up of the North West Passage to sailingmay be a source of economic opportunity – but also athreat to the environment
– Tourism may benefit from higher temperatures – again a– Tourism may benefit from higher temperatures – again asource of opportunity but also threats (e.g. on theenvironment and traditional lifestyles)
12
Climate change, environment and developmentClimate change, environment and development
13
Environment – climate change –development linkages
Climate change:
- an environ-- an environ-mental issue
- a developmentissue
14
Source: MillenniumEcosystem
Assessment (2005)Figure B, p. 7.
Climate change and environment
• Climate change is a theme to be addressedwith other environmental issues:– Climate change exacerbates certain environmental trends
and problems
– Environmental management has an impact on climate change
15
Credit: Proyecto Rio Hurtado,EuropeAid Photo Library
Credit: Vietnamese journalist,EuropeAid Photo Library
Climate change and MDGs
Potential
Eradicateextreme poverty
& hunger
Reduce childmortality
Promote genderequality &
empower women
e.g. Adverseeffects on
food security
e.g. Increasedincidence ofwaterbornediseases
Potentialimpacts on
MDGs
Improvematernal
healthCombat major
diseases
Ensureenvironmentalsustainability
16
e.g. Dependenceon livelihoods put
at risk by CC
e.g. Higherincidence of
anaemia resultingfrom malaria
e.g. Heat-relatedmortality & illnesses e.g. Increased stress
on ecosystems andbiodiversity
Source: OECD (2009a)
The development–adaptationcontinuum
Vulnerability Response to impacts
Addressing thedrivers of
Building theresponse
Managing climaterisk
Specificallyconfronting
vulnerability
Developmentalbenefits
capacity
=> Developmentaland climate
adaptation benefits
(e.g. DRR)
=> Primarilyadaptation benefits,
developmentalbenefits as a ‘side
effect’
climate change
=> Quasi-exclusivefocus on very
specific CC impacts,adaptation benefits
only
Adapted from: McGray et al (2007), OECD (2009a), Olhoff & Schaer (2010)
17
Benefits in the absence of climate change100 0
Moving to climate-resilient,
low-emission development
18
Climate-resilient development
Biophysicalimpacts
Socioeconomicimpacts
Vulnerabilityfactors
The develop-ment pathaddresses
factors
Climate riskmanagement
Specificadaptationmeasures
Development(vulnerability
reduction)activities
Response capacity building
Climate riskmanagement
Specificadaptationmeasures
19
addressescurrent and
futurevulnerability,
risks andimpacts
Low-emission development
• Generally, the three ‘sectors’ that are thebiggest contributors to GHG emissionsare also the main targets for emissionreductions: The
develop-
• Country-specific emission patterns anddevelopment objectives should beconsidered to determine nationalmitigation priorities
20
Energy (fossil-fuel burning)
AgricultureLand use changeesp. deforestation
develop-ment pathaddressessources ofemissions
Adaptation and mitigation:seizing opportunities
• Green growth
– ‘A way to pursue economic growth and development,while preventing environmental degradation, biodiversityloss and unsustainable natural resource use’
• Green jobsSource: OECD (2010b)
• Green jobs
• Adaptation and mitigation as ‘opportunities’:development co-benefits
e.g. renewable energy
e.g. clean technologies
e.g. forestry (REDD+)
e.g. agricultural productivity
21
Adaptation and mitigation:developing synergies
• Quite frequently adaptation and mitigationmeasures are congruent and can produce a doublestream of benefits
– e.g. reduced tillage agriculture enhances carbon– e.g. reduced tillage agriculture enhances carbonsequestration in soils while supporting soil moistureretention, thus increasing resilience to dry spells
– e.g. sustainable reforestation may simultaneouslyenhance carbon stocks and, by offering new livelihoodopportunities, enhance the adaptive capacity of localcommunities
22
• IRACC: Initiative for smallholder agricultureadaptation to climate change in the Indian Oceanislands through the promotion of agroecology
Developing synergies in the IndianOcean: IRACC regional project (1)
• Promoters: Indian Ocean Commission / IFAD
23
Source: IOC/IFAD (2010) Presentation byR. Andriantahina, regional coordinatorWorkshop of 8-9 December 2010 in Mauritius(www.coi-ioc.org)
• Project target: smallholders in IOC memberstates and Zanzibar
Climateconstraints (*)
Productionconstraints
Marketing & tradeconstraints Demographic
Developing synergies in the IndianOcean: IRACC regional project (2)
24
constraints (*)
Agriculture
Fragile natural environmentPoor land use & planning practicesUnsuitable agricultural techniques
Fragile and vulnerable soils
constraints Demographicgrowth
Naturalecosystems
Socioeconomicactivities
(*) Shift in seasons,higher average
temperatures, erraticrainfall, early and long
drought periods, floods,storms and cyclones, ...
Response:-Agroecological
techniques-Notably permanent
soil cover
• Benefits of permanent soil cover:
– Increased resilience of agriculture to climate variability(notably through improved storage and retention of water and organic matter
in solis) => adaptation to CC
Developing synergies in the IndianOcean: IRACC regional project (3)
– Restoration and enhancement of soil fertility(independently from climate-related considerations)
– Possibility of using non-cultivated or degraded land
– Watershed protection
– Carbon sequestration in soils => contribution to CCmitigation
25
Adaptation and mitigation:ensuring complementarity
• Mitigation should:
– Be compatible with adaptation policies and requirements
– Rely on environmentally sustainable practices• e.g. unsustainable agrofuels may be a threat to food security,
water availability and ecosystemswater availability and ecosystems
– Not result in increased vulnerability to climate change
• Adaptation should:
– Take emissions into account• e.g. agricultural intensification for improved food security may
increase emissions from the use of fertilisers
• e.g. the increased adoption of air conditioning to adapt to heatwaves may result in increased emissions from fossil energy use
26
Moving to climate-resilient,low-emission development
• Both climate-resilient development and low-emission development result from mainstreamingclimate change in policymaking and planning
Adaptationmainstreaming
Mainstreaming ofclimate change
mitigation
Low-emissiondevelopment
Climate-resilientdevelopment
The twoapproaches arecomplementary
In both cases,focus on co-
benefits
27
Illustration: British Virgin Islands’climate change policy
28
References (1)
• Government of the Virgin Islands (2011) The Virgin Islands’ Climate Change Policy: AchievingLow-Carbon, Climate-Resilient Development. Prepared by the Conservation and FisheriesDepartment, Ministry of Natural Resources and Labour [author: Angela Burnett Penn]. Technicalreport 5C/ECACC-11-10-1, Caribbean Community Climate Change Centre, Belmopan, Belize.Available from: http://www.caribbeanclimate.bz/projects/enhancing-capacity-for-adaptation-to-climate-change-ecacc-in-the-uk-caribbean-overseas-territories-project.html
• IOC (2010) Initiative pour l’adaptation des systèmes de production des petits agriculteurs aux• IOC (2010) Initiative pour l’adaptation des systèmes de production des petits agriculteurs auxchangements climatiques dans les îles de l’océan indien. Presentation on the IRACC project’sreference sites. Workshop in Quatre Bornes, Mauritius, 8-9 December 2010. Indian OceanCommission. Available from: http://www.coi-ioc.org
• McGray H., Hammill A. & Bradley R. (2007) Weathering the Storm: Options for FramingAdaptation and Development. World Resources Institute, Washington, DC. Available from:http://pdf.wri.org/weathering_the_storm.pdf
• Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (2005) Ecosystems and Human Well-being: Synthesis. IslandPress, Washington, DC. Available from: http://www.maweb.org/en/Synthesis.aspx
• OECD (2009a) Integrating Climate Change Adaptation into Development Co-operation: Policyguidance. OECD Publishing, Paris. [Read-only, browse-it edition] Available from:http://browse.oecdbookshop.org/oecd/pdfs/browseit/4309171E.PDF
29
References (2)
• OECD (2010b) Interim Report of the Green Growth Strategy: Implementing our commitment for asustainable future. Meeting of the OECD Council at Ministerial Level, 27-28 May 2010.C/MIN(2010)5. Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development, Paris. Available from:http://www.oecd.org/document/3/0,3343,en_2649_37465_45196035_1_1_1_1,00.html
• Olhoff A. & Schaer C. (2010) Screening tools and guidelines to support the mainstreaming ofclimate change adaptation into development assistance: A stocktaking report. Environment &Energy Group, United Nations Development Programme, New York. Available from:Energy Group, United Nations Development Programme, New York. Available from:http://www.undp.org/climatechange/library_integrating_cc.shtml
• Petit J. & Prudent G. (eds) (2008, reprint 2010) Climate Change and Biodiversity in the EuropeanUnion Overseas Entities. IUCN, Gland, Switzerland and Brussels, Belgium. Available from:http://data.iucn.org/dbtw-wpd/edocs/2010-064.pdf
30
Global Climate Change AllianceSupport Facility
Module 2
Mainstreaming climate change
and strengthening institutions
and capacitiesand capacities
Training workshops onmainstreaming climate change
What is mainstreaming,
and why mainstream climate change?
2
From project-based approaches...
• Project-based adaptation approaches such asthose developed in NAPAs are a first step in theright direction:
– Contribution to national capacity building
– Involvement of stakeholders at grassroots level
– Identified projects usually correspond to real prioritiesand involve wider developmental benefits
• But there are also problems, notably:
– Poor institutional arrangements for implementation
– Low capacity for adaptation planning andimplementation
Source: World Bank (2010a) WDR 20103
... to climate change mainstreaming
• In the medium and long term, standalone projectsare unlikely to meet all adaptation and mitigationrequirements in a cost-effective, scalable manner
• There is a strong case for mainstreaming climate• There is a strong case for mainstreaming climatechange into all development planning, both atstrategic planning levels and in local development
4
What is mainstreaming?
• The mainstream: the prevailing or dominantcourse, current, tendency or way of thinking
• Mainstreaming: the informed integration of arelevant value, theme or concern into the decisionsrelevant value, theme or concern into the decisionsof institutions that drive national, local and sectoraldevelopment policy, rules, plans, investment andaction (adapted from Dalal-Clayton & Bass 2009)
• Institutional strengthening and change and capacitybuilding are at the heart of any mainstreaming effort
5
Objectives of mainstreaming
• Mainstreaming is a long-term, iterativeprocess aimed at:
– transforming ideas
– even more importantly, transforming policies, resource– even more importantly, transforming policies, resourceallocations and practices
• in order to:
– promote desired developmental outcomes (with regard togender, environment, climate change, governance,human rights, ...)
– and support integrated solutions to human problems
6
Caribbean – Mainstreaming andAdaptation to CC (MACC) project
• 2004-2008, executed by the CARICOMSecretariat (World Bank support, GEF funding)
• Objective:
– Mainstream CC adaptation strategies into the sustainable– Mainstream CC adaptation strategies into the sustainabledevelopment agendas of the small island and low-lyingstates of CARICOM
• Approach:
– Learning-by-doing approach to capacity building
– Strengthening of the knowledge base
– Public education and outreach
7Source: http://www.caribbeanclimate.bz/macc/macc.html
A framework for mainstreaming
climate change
8
Entry points for mainstreaming inthe policy cycle
Agendasetting
Finding theentry points &
making thecase
MainstreamingCC into policy &
planningprocesses
9
Nationaldevelopment
planning
Policymaking
Implementation& monitoringMeeting the
implementationchallenge
Adapted from: UNDP-UNEP (2009) Figure 3.2, p. 15
Finding the entrypoints and making the
case
Mainstreaming CC intopolicy and planning
processes
Meeting theimplementation
challenge
Preliminary assessmentsUnderstanding CC–
development linkagesUnderstanding the science
Understanding climate-related uncertainties
Raising awareness andbuilding partnerships
Collecting country-specificevidence and influencing
policy processesMainstreaming CC in
(sub)national and sectorpolicies, strategies,
programmes
Costing, assessing and
Budgeting and financingMainstreaming CC in the
budgetary process
Mainstreaming CC inmonitoring systems
Performance assessmentframeworks
Mod1
Mod4
Mod5
Mod6 Mod8
Mod9
Mod3
building partnershipsNational consensus andcommitment to climate-resilient, low-emission
development
Strengthening institutionsand capacities
Needs assessmentWorking mechanisms
Costing, assessing andselecting adaptation andmitigation options and
measures
Strengthening institutionsand capacities
Learning by doing
Supporting policy measuresNational, sector and sub-
national levels
Strengthening institutionsand capacitiesMainstreaming
as standard practice
Engaging stakeholders and coordinating within the development community
Mod5
Mod2
Mod7
Adapted from: UNDP-UNEP (2009) Figure 3.1, p. 1510
Mod2 Mod2
Strengthening institutions and capacitiesStrengthening institutions and capacities
11
Terminology
• Institutions
– the rules, norms, structures and other social arrangementsthat shape and regulate human behaviour andinteractions, and notably support decision making
– institutions ≠ organisations
– institutions can be formal or informal
• Institutional framework
– a system made up of rules, laws, policies and institutions,in which various organisations interact with each other
12
Key institutional requirementsfor effective mainstreaming
Effective
Cross-sectoral& cross-levelcoordination,cooperation
Powerfulchampions atnational level Integration of
new thinking,new researchin planning &monitoring
e.g. office of prime minister,ministries of
finance/budget/planning
Effectivemainstreaming
monitoringsystems &processes
Experiencesharing,
disseminationof good
practices Timelystakeholder
participation atvarious scales
Strengtheningof capacities ofstakeholders atvarious scales
13
Principles for institutionalising
climate change mainstreaming
Source: UNDP-UNEP (2011)
14
Which institutional model?
• There is no single, ‘blueprint’ institutional modelfor effective mainstreaming of climate change
• Each country has to determine the most suitableinstitutional arrangements based on:institutional arrangements based on:
– current institutional structures
– a clear diagnosis of their strengths and weaknesses
– a clear plan for overall governance improvement
• However, there are some agreed principles andexamples of good practice
15
Principles for institutionaland capacity strengthening (1)
• Move coordination of climate adaptation/mitigationto a central body with a coordination mandate anddecision-making power over line ministries
– e.g. China: National Development & Reform Commission– e.g. China: National Development & Reform Commission
– e.g. Kenya: Office of the President
• Establish or strengthen coordination mechanisms,with a clear allocation of responsibilities andpermanent arrangements
– e.g. Mexico: Inter-Ministerial Commission on ClimateChange (CICC) with dedicated working groups
16Source: UNDP-UNEP (2011)
Principles for institutionaland capacity strengthening (2)
• Build on pre-existing intersectoral coordinationmechanisms wherever possible
– e.g. coordination structures for food security, disaster riskreduction and management, sustainable landmanagement, environmental management
• Institutionalise flexibility
– e.g. commitment to regular policy/strategy revisions andreassessment of available knowledge
• Institutionalise adaptation/mitigation mainstreaming
– e.g. in guidelines, procedures, systems, criteria forscreening and prioritising programmes and projects
17Source: UNDP-UNEP (2011)
Principles for institutionaland capacity strengthening (3)
• Develop effective national–local coordinationmechanisms, identifying the most suitable level atwhich to cooperate/coordinate
– e.g. Rwanda: annual performance contracts between– e.g. Rwanda: annual performance contracts betweenvarious levels of government, with clear definition of goals,indicators and activities
• Strengthen institutions at the sub-national level,matching the transfer of competences with thetransfer of resources
18Source: UNDP-UNEP (2011)
BVI – Diagnosis of the institutionaland legal/regulatory framework (1)
• Stakeholders:
– At least 17 government and statutory bodiesto be involved in CC adaptation – plus several inter-agency committees or bodies
• Legal and regulatory framework:
– New Environmental Management and Conservation ofBiodiversity Bill will support adaptation when enacted
– Building Regulations and Development Control Guidelinesoutdated, new planning regulations to be adopted
– Enforcement of planning and building legislation to beimproved
19Source: Burnett Penn (2010)
BVI – Diagnosis of the institutionaland legal/regulatory framework (2)
• Key management gaps:
– A comprehensive coastal management plan
– Specific management plans for beaches (work ongoing)
– A sustainable management programme for fish stocks– A sustainable management programme for fish stocks
– Management plans for Fisheries Protected Areas
– A comprehensive land use and physical development planinclusive of zoning (draft prepared in 2009)
20Source: Burnett Penn (2010)
BVI – Institutional arrangementsfor CC policy implementation
• National Climate Change Committee(NCCC) created in Dec. 2008
– Chaired by the Ministry of Natural Resources and Labour,to be co-chaired by the Premier’s Office
– Monitors and advises government on CC-related issues– Monitors and advises government on CC-related issues
– Responsible for coordinating and supervising theimplementation of the CC policy, incl. CC mainstreaminginto national development planning
– Recommendation: operate as a joint sub-committee of theexisting Technical Review Committee (under the Min. of
Natural Resources) and the Planning Authority (under thePremier’s Office)
21Source: Government of Virgin Islands (2011)
Tools and actions for supporting institutional and
capacity strengthening
22
Steps in institutional and capacitystrengthening
Needs assessment
Workingmechanisms
National capacity self-assessment
Inst’l arrangementsManagementframework
Stakeholderanalysis
23Source: UNDP-UNEP (2009)
Learning by doing
mechanisms
Mainstreaming asstandard practice
frameworkWork plan
Training, exchangevisits, on-the-joblearning, lesson
learning/dissemination
Needs assessment: capacitydevelopment for whom, for what?
• Capacity development (CD) should take placeat three complementary levels:
– the ‘enabling environment’ or ‘system level’ (overallinstitutional level)
– the organisation level
– the individual level
24
Start by determining:
‘Capacity developmentfor what?’ -> Define
specific objectives
Source: UNDP (2011)
Needs assessment: stakeholders’CD needs for mainstreaming
Stakeholder
Informationsystems &analytical
skills
Planning &prioritisation
skillsParticipatory
engagement &empowerment
skillsStakeholder
capacitybuilding
skills
Political &communication
skills
Monitoring,evaluation &
learning skills
Specifictechnical
skills
25Source: Dalal-Clayton & Bass (2009)
‘FUNCTIONAL
CAPACITIES’‘TECHNICAL
CAPACITIES’
Tips for strengthening capacitiesin OCTs (1)
• Draw on resources and join initiativesat the regional level, e.g.
– Greenland’s participation in the Arctic Climate ImpactAssessment (ACIA, 2005)
– Use of the expertise of the Caribbean Community Climate– Use of the expertise of the Caribbean Community ClimateChange Centre (CCCCC) by British Caribbean OCTs (e.g.ECACC project)
– Participation of Pacific OCTs in some projects of theSecretariat of the Pacific Regional EnvironmentalProgramme (SPREP) and SPC work on climate-relatedissues (e.g. recent study on Pacific fisheries)
26
Sources: http://www.acia.uaf.edu, http://www.caribbeanclimate.bz, Bell, Johnson & Hobday (2011)
Tips for strengthening capacitiesin OCTs (2)
• Draw on resources and join initiativesof European countries, e.g.
– British OCTs: possible collaboration with the HadleyCentre, the Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research,and the UK Climate Impacts Programmeand the UK Climate Impacts Programme
27
Source: http://www.caribbeanclimate.bz/projects/enhancing-capacity-for-adaptation-to-climate-change-ecacc-in-the-uk-caribbean-overseas-territories-project.html
Tips for strengthening capacitiesin OCTs (3)
• Strengthen regional institutions involvedin the response to CC, e.g.
– Caribbean Institute for Meteorology and Hydrology
– Establish master-level climate change courses in regionaluniversitiesuniversities
– Develop regional capacity to downscale from globalclimate models and prepare country- or territory-specificclimate scenarios
– Develop cross-regional links between organisationsrepresenting small island states (e.g. collaboration betweenCCCCC and SPREP)
28Source: GCSI Global Change Strategies Int’l & de Romilly & de Romilly Ltd (2005)
References (1)
• Bell J.D., Johnson J.E. & Hobday A. (2011) Vulnerability of Tropical Pacific Fisheries andAquaculture to Climate Change. Secretariat of the Pacific Community, Noumea, NewCaledonia. Available from: http://cdn.spc.int/climate-change/fisheries/assessment/climate-change-book.pdf
• Burnett Penn A. (2010) The Virgin Islands Climate Change Green Paper. Prepared by theConservation and Fisheries Department, Ministry of Natural Resources and Labour. CaribbeanCommunity Climate Change Centre, Belmopan, Belize, and Government of the Virgin Islands.Community Climate Change Centre, Belmopan, Belize, and Government of the Virgin Islands.Available from: http://www.caribbeanclimate.bz/projects/enhancing-capacity-for-adaptation-to-climate-change-ecacc-in-the-uk-caribbean-overseas-territories-project.html
• Dalal-Clayton B. & Bass S. (2009) The challenges of environmental mainstreaming: experienceof integrating environment into development institutions and decisions. International Institute forEnvironment and Development, London. Available from: http://www.environmental-mainstreaming.org/key-lit.html
• GCSI Global Change Strategies Int’l & de Romilly & de Romilly Ltd (2005) Adapting to ClimateChange in the Caribbean (ACCC). Report prepared for the Canadian International DevelopmentAgency (CIDA). Available from: http://www.caribbeanclimate.bz/accc/accc.html
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References (2)
• Government of the Virgin Islands (2011) The Virgin Islands’ Climate Change Policy: AchievingLow-Carbon, Climate-Resilient Development. Prepared by the Conservation and FisheriesDepartment, Ministry of Natural Resources and Labour [author: Angela Burnett Penn]. Technicalreport 5C/ECACC-11-10-1, Caribbean Community Climate Change Centre, Belmopan, Belize.Available from: http://www.caribbeanclimate.bz/projects/enhancing-capacity-for-adaptation-to-climate-change-ecacc-in-the-uk-caribbean-overseas-territories-project.html
• Schipper E.L., Paz Cigarán M. & McKenzie Hedger M. (2008) Adaptation to Climate Change:The new challenge for development in the developing world. Environment & Energy Group,The new challenge for development in the developing world. Environment & Energy Group,United Nations Development Programme, New York. Available from:http://www.undp.org/climatechange/docs/English/UNDP_Adaptation_final.pdf
• UNDP (2011) Practitioner’s Guide: Capacity Development for Environmental Sustainability.United Nations Development Programme, New York. Available from:http://www.undp.org/mainstreaming/cdes.shtml
• UNDP-UNEP (2009) Mainstreaming Poverty-Environment Linkages into DevelopmentPlanning: A Handbook for Practitioners. UNDP-UNEP Poverty-Environment Initiative. Availablefrom: http://www.unpei.org/PDF/PEI-full-handbook.pdf
• UNDP-UNEP (2011) Mainstreaming Adaptation to Climate Change into Development Planning:A Guide for Practitioners. UNDP-UNEP Poverty-Environment Initiative. Available from:http://www.unpei.org/knowledge-resources/publications.html
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References (3)
• World Bank (2010a) Development and Climate Change. World Development Report 2010.World Bank, Washington, DC. Available from: http://go.worldbank.org/ZXULQ9SCC0
• Website of the Arctic Climate Impact Assessment: http://www.acia.uaf.edu/
• Website of the Caribbean Community Climate Change Centre:http://www.caribbeanclimate.bz/macc/macc.html
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Global Climate Change AllianceSupport Facility
Module 3
Understanding the basics
of climate change scienceof climate change science
Training workshops onmainstreaming climate change
Is climate change real?
• IPCC 4th Assessment Report:
– “Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, as is nowevident from observations of increases in global averageair and ocean temperatures, widespread melting of snowand ice and rising global average sea level”.and ice and rising global average sea level”.
• Observed trends:
– Recent years warmest on record
– Accelerating increase in global surface temperature andocean temperature
– Accelerating rise in sea level
2
Some observations: trends inglobal mean temperature
Source: IPCC (2007b) 4th
Assessment Report,WG I – FAQ 3.1 Fig. 1
3
Observations and projections:global sea level change
Source: IPCC(2007b) 4th
AssessmentReport, WG I –FAQ 5.1 Fig. 1
4
Observations: intensity of cyclones
Worldwide: %age of Category 1 cyclone (blue curve), sum of Category 2 and 3 (green curve),sum of category 4 and 5 (red curve) on 5 years period. Dashed lines are averages for eachcategory from 1970 to 2004 (Source: Petit & Prudent 2008, p. 42, from Webster et al 2005)
5
What are the causes of climatechange?
• Natural variation is an inherent feature of theclimate (e.g. driven by solar cycles, earth orbit, volcanoes)
• But anthropogenic emissions of long-livedgreenhouse gases in the atmosphere are a majorgreenhouse gases in the atmosphere are a majorcause of the changes now being observed
6
The greenhouse effect
7
Source: WWF/IPCC,http://wwf.panda.org/about_our_earth/aboutcc/how_cc_works/
What are the main greenhousegases?
• By decreasing order of abundance:
– water vapour (H2O)
– carbon dioxide (CO2)
– methane (CH4)– methane (CH4)
– nitrous oxide (N2O)
– ozone (O3)
– chlorofluorocarbons (CFC)
– other halogenated compounds (i.e. gases containing fluorine,
chlorine, bromine or iodine) (e.g. hydrofluorocarbons – HFC,sulphur hexafluoride – SF6)
8
Evolution of GHG concentrations
Source: IPCC(2007b) 4th
AssessmentReport, WG I –FAQ 2.1 Fig. 1
9
Globally, what are the main sourcesof GHG emissions?
Source: Herzog (2005) – World Resources Institute
10
What are the main consequences?
Biophysicalimpacts
Changes in t°
Changes in rainfallpatterns
Shifts in seasons
Socioeconomicimpacts
Damage to or destructionof infrastructure
Reduced food security,malnutrition
Economic disruption, lossMore frequent or severestorms, floods, droughts
Raised sea level
Erosion, desertification
Changes in waterquality/availability
Changes in ecosystems
Biodiversity loss
Disease & pest outbreaks,...
Economic disruption, lossof livelihoods, social
disruption
Increased mortality andmorbidity
Reduced availability ofhydropower
Conflicts, populationdisplacement, human
migrations, ...
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References
• Herzog T. (2005) World Greenhouse Gas Emissions in 2005. Working paper, World ResourcesInstitute, Washington, DC. Available from: http://www.wri.org/publication/world-greenhouse-gas-emissions-in-2005
• IPCC (2007a) Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and IIto the Fourth Assessment Report. [Core Writing Team, Pachaury R.K. & Reisinger A. (eds.)]Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Geneva. Available from: www.ipcc.ch
• IPCC (2007b) Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working GroupI to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [SolomonS., Qin D., Manning M., Chen Z., Marquis M., Averyt K.B. , Tignor M. & Miller H.L. (eds.)].Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK & New York, NY, USA. Available from: www.ipcc.ch
• Petit J. & Prudent G. (eds) (2008, reprint 2010) Climate Change and Biodiversity in the EuropeanUnion Overseas Entities. IUCN, Gland, Switzerland and Brussels, Belgium. Available from:http://data.iucn.org/dbtw-wpd/edocs/2010-064.pdf
• WWF – Climate change explained: http://wwf.panda.org/about_our_earth/aboutcc/how_cc_works/
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Global Climate Change AllianceSupport Facility
Module 4
Understanding and planning
under uncertaintyunder uncertainty
Training workshops onmainstreaming climate change
Sources of uncertaintySources of uncertainty
2
Socio-economic uncertainties
• Socio-economic uncertainties (e.g. related to futurepopulation growth, economic growth, technological
choices, societal choices, international relations):
– influence the level of future emissions and thus the– influence the level of future emissions and thus themagnitude of climate change
– also, create uncertainties about future vulnerability toclimate change
3
IPCC GHG emission scenarios
Source: IPCC (2007a) 4thAssessment report –
Synthesis report, Fig. 3.1
4
Climate uncertainties
• For any given emission scenario, differentatmosphere-ocean general circulation models(AOGCMs) provide different projections of futurechange – sometimes very different oneschange – sometimes very different ones
• Due to the complexity of the climate system,many uncertainties prevail and will persist overthe evolution of climate
5
Uncertainties in climate changeprojections
• Temperatures and sea levels:
– consensus that they will increase
– magnitude of the increase quite uncertain
• Rainfall:
– expected to increase overall
– but some regions are likely to get more and some less
– for many regions in the world, uncertainty about thedirection of change
• Changes in extreme parameters:
– average future conditions are easier to project thanextremes
6
Problems associated withdownscaling
• AOGCMs produce projections of future climatechange for large areas (e.g. 200x200 km) – but usedalone, do not allow the downscaling of projections tolocal and regional scales (e.g. 10x10 km, 100x100 km)local and regional scales (e.g. 10x10 km, 100x100 km)
• Downscaling requires extra data and efforts
– In developing countries, the data needed to downscaleprojections of climate change to the local or regional levelare often missing
– The level of uncertainty is greater at downscaled levelsthan at large scales
7
Planning in the face of uncertaintiesPlanning in the face of uncertainties
8
The cost of inaction
• The uncertainties surrounding climate changeare often invoked to justify inaction
• In a medium- to long-term perspective, however,inaction now is likely to be more costly:inaction now is likely to be more costly:
9
*Wasted investment*Increased vulnerability
Failure to adapt
*More harmful impacts*Higher adaptation costs
Failure to reduce emissions
The benefits of action
• Some climate adaptation and mitigationmeasures are expected to provide developmentalbenefits, regardless of the scope and magnitude ofclimate change or, as far as mitigation is concerned,climate change or, as far as mitigation is concerned,regardless of carbon prices
• Even in the face of uncertainty, some types ofmeasures are justified
10
Justified measures in the face ofuncertainty (1)
• ‘No-regret’ measures:
– those expected to produce net benefits for societyeven in the absence of climate change (adaptation) orindependently of any ‘reward’ for mitigation (zero ornegative net cost at a zero carbon price)
• ‘Low-regret’ measures:
– those expected to have a cost for society, but anacceptable one in view of the benefits they would bring ifclimate change turns out to produce significant effects(adaptation), or to have a low net cost at zero or lowcarbon prices (mitigation)
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Justified measures in the face ofuncertainty (2)
• ‘Robust’ measures:
– those that produce net benefits or deliver good outcomesacross various possible climate change or carbon pricescenarios and economic development scenarios (ratherthan just under the ‘most likely’ scenario)than just under the ‘most likely’ scenario)
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Adaptive management
• Adaptive management: a flexible andpragmatic type of management, aimed atcontinually improving management policies andpractices, on the basis of ‘learning by doing’
– Uses pilot projects and experiments; results and– Uses pilot projects and experiments; results andoutcomes are analysed and lessons learnt beforescaling up or adjusting responses
– Involves robustness as a decision criterion, the inclusionof safety margins in investment and the choice ofreversible/flexible options
• Well suited to situations involving uncertainties
13
Scenario-based planning (1)
• To support the choice of adaptation measures,scenarios reflecting prevailing uncertainties canalso be developed, e.g.
14
1) No change2) Moderate change3) High change
1) No change2) Temperatures up, rainfall up3) Temperatures up, rainfall down
Scenario-based planning (2)
Contents of scenarios Scenario development
Changes in climateconditions
Key experts with arange of technical skills
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conditions
Resulting biophysicaleffects
Resulting socio-economic impacts
range of technical skills
Other nationalstakeholders
for their knowledge oflocal conditions
(e.g. government and civilsociety organisations)
Scenario-based planning (3)
Once scenarios have been designed:
1) Identify potentially suitableadaptation or mitigation options
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2) Calculate costs and benefitsfor each chosen scenarios
3) Compare costs and benefitsacross the various scenarios
4) Identify no-regret, low-regretand robust options/measures
Use of scenarios: Samoa casestudy (1)
Exhibit 1 – Scenarios for long-term sea level rise in Samoa; in the highchange case, sea level might rise by up to ~26cm by 2030
Today’s climatescenario
2030 estimated sea level rise against 2008 levelCentimeters
0.9
Sea level rise scenarios in Samoa by 2030 compared to 2008
00 2.02.0
Yearly sea level riseMillimeters
SOURCES: IPCC 4th AR; Rahmstorf (2009); CSIRO; team analysis
Moderate changescenario based onA2 scenariowithout ice flow
High changescenario based onA2 scenario withice flow
3.5
11.9
Sea levelrise inSamoa
26.2
Geologicalsubsidencein Samoa
2.0
Correctionfor localeffect inSamoa
0
Globalseal levelrise
24.2
7.68.12.0-2.5
Source: Economics of Climate Adaptation (2009) Test case on Samoa –Focus on risks caused by sea level rise, Fig. 01, p. 121
17
Use of scenarios: Samoa casestudy (2)
Today’sclimatescenario
Horizontal retraction of freshwater lens due to sealevel rise, in meters
2 to 3
0 to 1
3 to 5
Savai’i
Upolu
Exhibit 2 – The freshwater lens is expected to retract by ~ 30 meters inUpolu and ~10 meters in Savai'i by 2030
ΔL
),m
120
140
160
180
Currentaverage
10% decrease(minimum annualrainfall projectedby global climate
model)
10% increase(maximum annualrainfall projectedby global climate
model)
However, salinization is highly sensitive to changes inaverage annual rainfall
SOURCE: Team analysis; CMIP3 global models
Moderatechangescenario
Highchangescenario
5 to 10
3 to 5
25 to 35
10 to 15
Both depth and location,particularly distance from coast)
will affect the salinization ofindividual wells
Annual rainfall, m
Sh
ift
of
len
s(Δ
0
20
40
60
80
100
2.6 2.7 2.8 2.9 3.0 3.1 3.2 3.3 3.4
A 10% decrease in rainfall coulddouble the expected horizontal
retraction of the freshwater lens inthe high change scenario
Source: Economics of Climate Adaptation (2009) Test case on Samoa –Focus on risks caused by sea level rise, Fig. 02, p. 122
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References
• Economics of Climate Adaptation Working Group (2009) Shaping climate-resilient development: aframework for decision-making. Climate Works Foundation, Global Environment Facility, EuropeanCommission, McKinsey & Company, The Rockfeller Foundation, Standard Chartered Bank &Swiss Re. Available from:http://www.mckinsey.com/clientservice/Social_Sector/our_practices/Economic_Development/Knowledge_Highlights/Economics_of_climate_adaptation.aspxledge_Highlights/Economics_of_climate_adaptation.aspx
• IPCC (2007a) Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and IIto the Fourth Assessment Report. [Core Writing Team, Pachaury R.K. & Reisinger A. (eds.)]Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Geneva. Available from: www.ipcc.ch
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