October 5, 2013

Diego VillarrealSHP – Columbia University

Energy Flows & Emissions

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How much energy?

• The world currently consumes about 12,700 Mtoe of primary energy. This roughly equivalent of detonating 905 Hiroshima bombs per hour!

• Most of this comes from the burning of fossil fuels.

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Which sectors?

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Country Energy Balance

FLOW/PRODUCTCoal and Peat Crude Oil Petroleum

Products Natural Gas Nuclear Hydro Geothermal, solar, etc Biomass Electricity Heat

Transfers 0 25517.95 -26616.927 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Statistical differences 13742.513 10674.405 406.604 4535.722 0 0 0 -93.856 0 0

Electricity plants 427255.165 0 8356.37 134087.177 216357.758 23700.74 14657.452 11801.897 -331867.292 0CHP plants 12469.806 0 2983.248 38547.903 0 0 0 7368.956 -26356.592 -12430.113Heat plants 0 -1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Gas works 1943.936 0 0 -1176.513 0 0 0 0 0 0

Petroleum refineries 0 825139.885 -832196.004 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Coal transformation 4855.623 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Liquefaction plants 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Other transformation 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Own use 1172.036 0 45771.728 46220.907 0 0 0 0 25502.096 4146.332

Distribution losses 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 22420.888 1491.593Industry sector 21950.443 0 27424.756 105689.131 0 0 105.812 29654.862 68720.364 5366.863

Domestic aviation 0 0 47744.153 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Road 0 0 480202.792 677.472 0 0 0 22173.887 0 0Rail 0 0 8081.872 0 0 0 0 0 671.488 0

Other transport 0 0 4304.542 13903.106 0 0 0 0 0 0Residential 0 0 22159.009 111056.366 0 0 1407.415 10292.041 117154.274 0

Commercial and public services 1588.163 0 15717.414 71687.975 0 0 80.619 2263.371 113812.916 1425.326Other sectors 0 0 13971.878 0 0 0 0 341.078 12870.416 0

Non-energy use 0 0 121045.474 8978.479 0 0 0 0 0 0

• Simplified Energy Balance USA 2009

IEA – Energy balances 2009

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Primary Energy World & Regional

• What can you say about these graphs?BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2012

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Energy Intensity• Energy

Intensity = Unit of energy/Unit of GPD

• Why do you think this is an important metric?

• What does this metric leave out?

EIA – International Energy Statistics

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Per capita consumption

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Issues with current infrastructure

• So what is the main issue with the current energy mix/infrastructure?○ Environmental:

• Pollution in the extraction/processing/burning of FF.• Impacts on human health

○ Air Quality○ Drinking water.

○ Finite resource• Dwindling reserves?• Cost of production? (We’ll discuss this later).

○ Climate Change• CO2 emissions.• CH4 emissions.

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Where do our emissions come from?

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History of emissions

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Emissions by country

EIA – International Energy Statistics

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Emissions by fuel type• Most emissions come from the burning

of coal for electricity generation & oil for transportation.

• Keep in mind that the pie has gotten much bigger!

• In 1973 ~ 14 Gt• In 2010 ~ 30 Gt• What does this tell you about decarbonizing the

economy?

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Emissions intensity• Amount of CO2 per

unit of GDP.• This metric tells you

how “carbon intense” a specific economy is.

• Many factors play into a country’s emission intensity:○ Structure of

economy○ Efficient use of

energy○ Availability of low

carbon energy sources.

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GDP and CO2 emissions

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Emissions per unit of energy

• Carbon emissions per unit of energy consumed. • A measurement of how “carbonized” the energy

sector is. • What obvious trends do you see?

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Relating all the concepts• Can we come up with a general

equation that relates the different factors that affect overall CO2 emissions?○ KAYA identity:

• Limitations:○Only accounts for energy related

emissions.○Gain/Loss of carbon sinks.

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Energy mix in the future• CO2 emissions puts a limit on the amount of

fossil fuels that we can use without wrecking the climate.

• Eventually emissions need to go to zero.• Because of this, a decarbonization of our

energy system is crucial (inevitable?).• What limits us from getting there?○ Massive deployment○ Cheap low carbon sources

• Electricity• Fuels

○ Cheap intermittent energy storage○ New technologies for steel and cement.

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Energy transitions• What can history teach us about past

energy transitions?○ Tend to be slow○ Fuel mix has increased with time.○Wood Coal Gas? Renewables?

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The ages of energy

Citi GPS: Global Perspectives & Solutions 2013

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Future Demand & Investment

• Future demand is expected to come mostly from developing markets.

• $37 trillion dollars are expected to be invested in the next 20 years in primary energy (Citi).

• What is happening is substitution in developed markets and new capacity being built in developing markets.

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Energy Transitions - Power• Renewables are the fastest growing power source

(on a % basis). • By 2016 expected to become second most important

electricity source. 25% by 2018

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Energy Transitions - Power• We’ve seen

dramatic reduction in the cost of PV and wind.

• PV seen LR ~ 22% and expected to be between 30-40% in the near term

• Wind LR ~ 7.4%

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Energy Transitions - Transport

• Expansions in biofuel production is expected to happen at much smaller rates than for power production.

• Most of all the biofuels are EtOH coming from sugar cane or corn.

• Serious questions regarding the energy payback and sustainability of some of these fuels.

• Still very small fraction of overall energy in transportation.

• Very challenging sector to decarbonize.

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Energy Transitions - Transportation

• Cost competitiveness of biofuels still a major issue.

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Energy Transitions - Heat• Renewables are

starting to play a larger role in heating sector.

• Most growth comes from OECD countries.

• About 8% of total final energy used for heating

• Most important source is biomass followed by solar thermal & geothermal