OE ENERGY MARKET SNAPSHOT...HSC Henry Hub FGT-Z3 Spot Natural Gas Prices Average ($/MMBtu) Misc Source: ICE Updated May 6/19/2014 $4.56 9% $4.52 8% $4.20 9% $4.42 9% $4.16 9% $4.20

Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversight

OE ENERGYMARKET SNAPSHOT

West Version – Data

Office of EnforcementFederal Energy Regulatory Commission

May 2014

June 2014


2014 Summer Assessmenthttp://www.ferc.gov/market-oversight/reports-analyses/mkt-views/2014/05-

15-14.pdf

2014 Summer Assessment

2


Office of Energy Projects Energy Infrastructure Updatehttp://www.ferc.gov/legal/staff-reports.asp

(see “Energy Infrastructure” tab)

Infrastructure Report

3


National Slides

4

Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversight5

NOAA 3 Month Outlook


2181

Pittsburgh

Boston

Calgary

City Location

ChicagoNYC

OklahomaCity

DallasLosAngeles

Sacramento Denver

Portland

Houston New Orleans Miami

Vancouver

This Year

Last Year

5 Year Average

Cumulative HDDs by City

Misc

Source: Bloomberg Weather

Atlanta

Updated

202228191

78143109

000

144161128

192

133173163

328749

53113

2112

279199263

233252267

127148179

142175242

181565

11625

356133

May

6/19/2014

6


2181

Pittsburgh

Boston

Calgary

City Location

ChicagoNYC

OklahomaCity

DallasLosAngeles

Sacramento Denver

Portland

Houston New Orleans Miami

Vancouver

This Year

Last Year

5 Year Average

Cumulative CDDs by City

Source: Bloomberg Weather

Atlanta

Updated

May

6/19/2014

201938

485772

467415469

607378

320308400

1028784

218129169

292303333

288312394

131

203926

000

181510

13211376

16810463

179111190

7


2181

ColumbiaTCO

AlgonquinCitygate

AECO

Pricing PointBOLD – This YearGreen – % increase from previous yearRed – % decrease from previous year

ChicagoCitygate

TranscoZ6-NY

NGPLTex-Okla

El PasoPermian

SoCal Border

PG&ECitygate

CIG

NW Sumas

HSCHenry Hub

FGT-Z3

Spot Natural Gas Prices Average ($/MMBtu)

Misc

Source: ICE Updated

May

6/19/2014

$4.569%

$4.528%

$4.209%

$4.429%

$4.169%

$4.2013%

$4.0414%

$3.8919%

$4.1111%

$3.6915%

$3.7536%

$3.7819%

$4.3316%

$3.9717%

8


2181

ColumbiaTCO

AlgonquinCitygate

Pricing PointBOLD – This yearGreen – % increase from previous yearRed – % decrease from previous year

ChicagoCitygate

TranscoZ6-NY

NGPLTex-Okla

El PasoPermian

SoCal Border

PG&ECitygate

CIG

NW Sumas

HSCHenry Hub

FGT-Z3

Spot Natural Gas Trading Volumes Average (MMBtus)

Misc

Source: ICE Updated

May

6/19/2014

198,41770%

161,91737%

114,15770%

30,377‐63%

851,137‐14%

553,05715%

767,93732%

413,880‐12%

437,637‐20%

141,190259%

63,53614%

833,39037%

606,67764%

9


U.S. NG Supply and Demand May 2013 vs. May 2014

National Natural Gas Market Overview: U.S. Supply and Consumption

Note: Balance includes all amounts not attributable to other categories.Source: Derived from Bentek Energy data

2163Updated: June 2014

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

2013 2014

Aver

age

Dai

ly V

olum

e (B

cfd)

US Natural Gas Supply

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

2013 2014

Aver

age

Dai

ly V

olum

e (B

cfd)

US Natural Gas DemandTotal Change in Demand

Power Generation

Net Dry GasProduction

Net PipelineImports

3.1%

3.3%

-45.5%

3.5% -1.8%

1.4%

LNG Imports

Industrial

Total Change in Supply 4.1%

9.4%Residential/ Commercial

10


National Natural Gas Market Overview: Canadian Imports

Regional Imports from Canada

Source: Derived from Bentek Energy data Updated: June 2014

(2)

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

Jan-

05Ju

l-05

Jan-

06Ju

l-06

Jan-

07Ju

l-07

Jan-

08Ju

l-08

Jan-

09Ju

l-09

Jan-

10Ju

l-10

Jan-

11Ju

l-11

Jan-

12Ju

l-12

Jan-

13Ju

l-13

Jan-

14

Bcf

dNorthwest Net ImportsMidwest Net ImportsNortheast Net Imports

11


Total U.S. Natural Gas Demand All Sectors

National Natural Gas Market Overview: Total US Gas Demand

Source: Derived from Bentek Energy data, derived from interstate pipeline flow and modeled data.20009Updated: June 2014

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160B

cfd

2009-2013 Range

2014

12


U.S. Natural Gas Consumption for Power Generation

National Natural Gas Market Overview: NG Consumption for Power Generation

Source: Derived from Bentek Energy data20024Updated: June 2014

0

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

MM

cf/m

onth

2009-13 Range

2014

13


EIA National Storage Inventories by Region

National Natural Gas Market Overview: Natural Gas Storage Inventory

Source: Derived from Bloomberg Data

Notes:

Updated

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

U.S

Stor

age

Leve

ls (B

cf)

East Storage LevelWest Storage LevelProduction Area Storage Level5 Year Average

6/4/2014

14


EIA National Storage Inventories



Notes:

Updated

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar

5 Year Range 2013 2014

6/4/2014

15


EIA Regional Storage Inventories



Notes:

Updated 6/4/2014

16


Monthly U.S. Dry Gas Production – Lower 48 States

National Natural Gas Market Overview: Monthly U.S. Dry Gas Production

Note: Prior to July 2010, chart was derived from a combination of EIA and Bentek Energy dataSource: Derived from Bentek Energy data

20021Updated: June 2014

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Bcf

d

Dry Production

17


NG Rigs by Type

National Natural Gas Market Overview: Rig Count by Type

Source: Derived from Bloomberg data

Notes:

Updated

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800May‐10

Aug‐10

Nov‐10

Feb‐11

May‐11

Aug‐11

Nov‐11

Feb‐12

May‐12

Aug‐12

Nov‐12

Feb‐13

May‐13

Aug‐13

Nov‐13

Feb‐14

May‐14

Baker H

ughe

s Rig Co

unt (Rigs)

Oil Rigs Gas Rigs

6/4/2014

18


NG Rig by Direction

National Natural Gas Market Overview: Rig Count by Direction


Notes:

Updated

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

Bake

r Hug

hes

Rigs

By

Drill

Type

Vertical Horizontal Directional

6/4/2014

19


Daily Gas Sendout from Existing U.S. LNG Facilities

National Natural Gas Market Overview: LNG Market-Daily Gas Sendout

Notes: Everett data includes flows onto the AGT and TGP interstate lines, plus estimates of flows to the Mystic 7 power plant, Keyspan Boston Gas, and LNG trucked out of the terminal. Excludes flows to the Freeport LNG which flows via intrastate pipelines and flows to the Mystic 8 and 9 power plants.

Source: Derived from Bentek Energy data3007Updated: June 2014

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

5,000D

aily

LN

G S

endo

ut (M

Mcf

d)Sabine PassLake CharlesGolden PassFreeportNortheast GatewayExcelerateCameronElba IslandCove PointEverett (Grossed)

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000 Monthly Average

20


3024Source: Waterborne Energy, Inc. Data in $US/MMBtu

World LNG Estimated July 2014 Landed Prices

Updated June 2014

National Natural Gas Market Overview: World LNG Landed Prices

Cove Point$4.50

India$11.55

UK$8.75

Spain$9.05

Belgium$8.84

Japan$12.40

Korea$12.40

Lake Charles$3.96Altamira

$4.60

Cove Point$4.40

India$11.55

UK$8.75

Spain$9.15

Belgium$8.99

Japan$13.10

Korea$13.10


$4.57

Cove Point$4.50

India$11.55

UK$8.75

Spain$9.05

Belgium$8.84

Japan$12.40

Korea$12.40


$4.60

Cove Point

India

UK

Spain

Belgium

Japan

Korea

Lake Charles

Altamira

Rio de Janeiro

Bahia Blanca

China

Canaport

3.61$ 4.76$

7.16$

4.13$

13.63$

13.89$

13.73$

9.80$

7.38$

12.80$ 12.85$

13.25$

13.25$

21

21


Historical and Future World Gas Prices

National Natural Gas Market Overview: LNG Competitive Price Hubs


Notes:

Updated 6/4/2014

$0

$5

$10

$15

$20

$25

$30Jun‐12

Aug‐12

Oct‐1

2De

c‐12

Feb‐13

Apr‐1

3Jun‐13

Aug‐13

Oct‐1

3De

c‐13

Feb‐14

Apr‐1

4Jun‐14

Aug‐14

Oct‐1

4De

c‐14

Feb‐15

Apr‐1

5Jun‐15

$/MMBtu

Henry Hub TZ6 NYAlgonquin Citygates UKNBPJapanese LNG Spot Price Futures Prices

22


National Natural Gas Market Overview: WTI vs Brent Oil Price

Source: Derived from Bloomberg data Updated

WTI vs Brent Crude Oil Price

6/4/2014

$60

$70

$80

$90

$100

$110

$120

$130

Oil Pric

es ($/Barrel)

WtI Oil Price

Brent Crude Oil Price

23


National Natural Gas Market Overview: Nymex Futures Curve

Source: Derived from Bloomberg data Updated

Nymex Futures Curves

$0.00

$1.00

$2.00

$3.00

$4.00

$5.00

$6.00

Jul‐14

Sep‐14

Nov‐1

4Jan‐15

Mar‐15

May‐15

Jul‐15

Sep‐15

Nov‐1

5Jan‐16

Mar‐16

May‐16

Jul‐16

Sep‐16

Nov‐1

6Jan‐17

Mar‐17

May‐17

Jul‐17

Nymex Fu

tures C

urves ($/MMBtu)

6/2/2013 12/2/20135/4/2014 6/4/2014

6/4/2014

24


US Total Generation Mix

National Electricity Market Overview: Generation Mix

1207Updated: June 16, 2014

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

350000

400000

450000

Mon

thly Gen

eration (GWh)

US Total Generation Mix, Feb '12 to Mar '14

Coal Generation in Mar '14 was 137004 GWh (42%).NatGas Generation in Mar '14 was 77505 GWh (24%).Nuclear Generation in Mar '14 was 62395 GWh (19%).Hydro Generation in Mar '14 was 24243 GWh (7%).Other Renewable Generation in Mar '14 was 25712 GWh (8%).Oil Generation in Mar '14 was 965 GWh (0%).Total Generation in Mar '14 was 327824 GWh.

States: All

Source: EIA via Bloomberg

25


Natural Gas and Fuels Markets

West


West Annual Average Day Ahead Natural Gas Prices

West Natural Gas Market: Annual Hub Prices

Source: ICE

Notes:Updated 6/3/2014

Average Day Ahead Prices ($/MMBtu)

SoCal Border

Opal Wyoming Plant AECO USD

El Paso Permian

GTN Malin Oregon

Henry Hub

Annual 4.05 3.81 3.66 3.87 3.94 3.98Summer 4.18 3.89 3.78 3.99 4.03 4.14Winter 2011/2012 2.98 2.75 2.49 2.69 2.86 2.74Annual 2.91 2.68 2.39 2.67 2.73 2.75Summer 2.83 2.58 2.24 2.61 2.61 2.69Winter 2012/2013 3.62 3.46 3.22 3.38 3.52 3.47Annual 3.83 3.65 3.09 3.63 3.71 3.70Summer 3.82 3.61 2.94 3.63 3.67 3.75Winter 2013/2014 4.89 4.88 4.36 4.68 4.88 4.61

Annual 5.07 5.02 4.68 4.86 5.03 4.88Summer 4.65 4.44 4.28 4.42 4.50 4.52

Winter 2014/2015

2011

2012

2013

2014

YTD

27


West Daily Day-Ahead Prices

West Natural Gas Market: Day-Ahead Prices

Source: ICE

Notes:Updated 6/3/2014

$0.0

$5.0

$10.0

$15.0

$20.0

$25.0

$30.0

$35.0

Spot

Day

-Ahe

ad P

rices

($/M

MBt

u)

SoCal BorderOpal Wyoming PlantAECO USDEl Paso PermianGTN Malin Oregon

$0$1$2$3$4$5$6$7$8

2011 2012 2013 2014

30 Day Moving Avg

28


West Daily Day-Ahead Basis

West Natural Gas Market: Day-Ahead Basis

Source: ICE

Notes:

Updated 6/3/2014

-$5.0

$0.0

$5.0

$10.0

$15.0

$20.0

$25.0

Day A

head

Bas

is ($

/MM

Btu)

SoCal Border BasisOpal Wyoming Plant BasisAECO USD BasisEl Paso Permian BasisGTN Malin Oregon Basis

-$2.0-$1.0$0.0$1.0$2.0

2011 2012 2013 2014

30D Moving Avg

29


West Average Monthly Basis

West Natural Gas Market: Average Monthly Basis

Source: ICE

Notes:

Updated 6/3/2014

-$0.40

-$0.20

$0.00

$0.20

$0.40

$0.60

$0.80

$1.00

$1.20

Jun Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

2012 2013 2014

Avg

Mon

thly

Day-

Ahea

d Ba

si ($

/MM

Btu)

Avg Monthly SoCal BasisAvg Monthly Opal BasisAvg Monthly El Paso Permian BasisAvg Monthly GTN Malin Basis

30


Daily Rockies Natural Gas Demand All Sectors

West Natural Gas Market: Daily Demand

Source: Derived from Bentek Energy data

22050Updated: May 2014

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7B

cfd

2009-2013 Range

2014

31


Daily Southwest and Northwest Natural Gas Demand All Sectors

West Natural Gas Market: Daily Demand

Source: Derived from Bentek Energy data

Note: Data derived from interstate natural gas pipeline flows.22050Updated: May 2014

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

Bcf

d

2009-2013 Range

2014

0

1

2

3

4

5

Bcf

d

2009-2013 Range

2014

Southwest Northwest

32


West Natural Gas Consumption for Power Generation

West Natural Gas Market: NG Consumption for Power Generation

Source: Derived from Bentek Energy data20024Updated: May 2014

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

MM

cf/m

onth

2009-13 Range

2014

33


Electricity Markets

West


CAISO Real Time Prices—Two Year History

West Electricity Market: CAISO Real Time Prices

Updated: June 16, 2014

-50

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350M

ay-1

2Ju

n-12

Jul-1

2A

ug-1

2Se

p-12

Oct

-12

Nov

-12

Dec

-12

Jan-

13Fe

b-13

Mar

-13

Apr

-13

May

-13

Jun-

13Ju

l-13

Aug

-13

Sep-

13O

ct-1

3N

ov-1

3D

ec-1

3Ja

n-14

Feb-

14M

ar-1

4A

pr-1

4M

ay-1

4

Wei

ghte

d D

aily

Avg

($/M

Wh)

Prior Year Yesterday's SCE Daily Avg Real Time Price was $43.52.Yesterday's SDG&E Avg Real Time Price was $45.11. Yesterday's PG&E Daily Avg Real Time Price was $41.43.

Source: Genscape via Bloomberg

35


CAISO System Daily Average Load —Two Year History

West Electricity Market: CAISO Average Daily Load


0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

Weighted Daily Avg Loa

d (GW)

Prior Year Yesterday's average on peak load was 26 GW. Yesterday's average off‐peak load was 22 GW.

Source: Genscape via Bloomberg

36


‐5000

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

Mon

thly Gen

eration (GWh)

Mountain Regional Generation Mix, Feb '12 to Mar '14

Coal Generation in Mar '14 was 15353 GWh (54%).Gas Generation in Mar '14 was 4285 GWh (15%).Hydro Generation in Mar '14 was 3157 GWh (11%).Othr Renew Generation in Mar '14 was 2842 GWh (10%).Nuclear Generation in Mar '14 was 2967 GWh (10%).Oil Generation in Mar '14 was 30 GWh (0%).Total Generation in Mar '14 was 28634 GWh.

States: AZ, CO, ID, MT, NM, NV, UT, WY



37


0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

Mon

thly Gen

eration (GWh)

Pacific Contiguous Regional Generation Mix, Feb '12 to Mar '14

Hydro Generation in Mar '14 was 12962 GWh (43%).Gas Generation in Mar '14 was 9361 GWh (31%).Nuclear Generation in Mar '14 was 1796 GWh (6%).Renew Generation in Mar '14 was 5101 GWh (17%).Coal Generation in Mar '14 was 604 GWh (2%).Oil Generation in Mar '14 was 13 GWh (0%).Total Generation in Mar '14 was 29837 GWh.

States: CA, OR, WA



38


One Year Ago One Month Ago Current2/2/2014 3/2/2014 4/2/2014

California 46% 27% 33%Idaho 87% 78% 114%

Montana 96% 111% 142%Oregon 94% 38% 61%

Washington 115% 53% 99%Columbia River Basin 98% 64% 102%

Source: California Department of Water Resources, U.S. Department of Agriculture Natural Resources Conservation Service

Northwest Snowpack Improves

State/Region

Snow Water Equivalent(% of Historic Median)


Northwest Snowpack39



Monthly Hydrogeneration by Footprint

Source: Derived from Energy Velocity and BPA data.

40


Hydrogeneration in BPA by Year

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000G

Wh

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Source: BPAUpdated: June 20, 2014

41

Documents

OE ENERGY MARKET SNAPSHOT...HSC Henry Hub FGT-Z3 Spot Natural Gas Prices Average ($/MMBtu) Misc Source: ICE Updated May 6/19/2014 $4.56 9% $4.52 8% $4.20 9% $4.42 9% $4.16 9% $4.20