Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversight
OE ENERGYMARKET SNAPSHOT
West Version – Data
Office of EnforcementFederal Energy Regulatory Commission
May 2014
June 2014
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversight
2014 Summer Assessmenthttp://www.ferc.gov/market-oversight/reports-analyses/mkt-views/2014/05-
15-14.pdf
2014 Summer Assessment
2
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversight
Office of Energy Projects Energy Infrastructure Updatehttp://www.ferc.gov/legal/staff-reports.asp
(see “Energy Infrastructure” tab)
Infrastructure Report
3
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversight
National Slides
4
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversight5
NOAA 3 Month Outlook
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversight
2181
Pittsburgh
Boston
Calgary
City Location
ChicagoNYC
OklahomaCity
DallasLosAngeles
Sacramento Denver
Portland
Houston New Orleans Miami
Vancouver
This Year
Last Year
5 Year Average
Cumulative HDDs by City
Misc
Source: Bloomberg Weather
Atlanta
Updated
202228191
78143109
000
144161128
192
133173163
328749
53113
2112
279199263
233252267
127148179
142175242
181565
11625
356133
May
6/19/2014
6
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversight
2181
Pittsburgh
Boston
Calgary
City Location
ChicagoNYC
OklahomaCity
DallasLosAngeles
Sacramento Denver
Portland
Houston New Orleans Miami
Vancouver
This Year
Last Year
5 Year Average
Cumulative CDDs by City
Source: Bloomberg Weather
Atlanta
Updated
May
6/19/2014
201938
485772
467415469
607378
320308400
1028784
218129169
292303333
288312394
131
203926
000
181510
13211376
16810463
179111190
7
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversight
2181
ColumbiaTCO
AlgonquinCitygate
AECO
Pricing PointBOLD – This YearGreen – % increase from previous yearRed – % decrease from previous year
ChicagoCitygate
TranscoZ6-NY
NGPLTex-Okla
El PasoPermian
SoCal Border
PG&ECitygate
CIG
NW Sumas
HSCHenry Hub
FGT-Z3
Spot Natural Gas Prices Average ($/MMBtu)
Misc
Source: ICE Updated
May
6/19/2014
$4.569%
$4.528%
$4.209%
$4.429%
$4.169%
$4.2013%
$4.0414%
$3.8919%
$4.1111%
$3.6915%
$3.7536%
$3.7819%
$4.3316%
$3.9717%
8
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversight
2181
ColumbiaTCO
AlgonquinCitygate
Pricing PointBOLD – This yearGreen – % increase from previous yearRed – % decrease from previous year
ChicagoCitygate
TranscoZ6-NY
NGPLTex-Okla
El PasoPermian
SoCal Border
PG&ECitygate
CIG
NW Sumas
HSCHenry Hub
FGT-Z3
Spot Natural Gas Trading Volumes Average (MMBtus)
Misc
Source: ICE Updated
May
6/19/2014
198,41770%
161,91737%
114,15770%
30,377‐63%
851,137‐14%
553,05715%
767,93732%
413,880‐12%
437,637‐20%
141,190259%
63,53614%
833,39037%
606,67764%
9
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversight
U.S. NG Supply and Demand May 2013 vs. May 2014
National Natural Gas Market Overview: U.S. Supply and Consumption
Note: Balance includes all amounts not attributable to other categories.Source: Derived from Bentek Energy data
2163Updated: June 2014
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
2013 2014
Aver
age
Dai
ly V
olum
e (B
cfd)
US Natural Gas Supply
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
2013 2014
Aver
age
Dai
ly V
olum
e (B
cfd)
US Natural Gas DemandTotal Change in Demand
Power Generation
Net Dry GasProduction
Net PipelineImports
3.1%
3.3%
-45.5%
3.5% -1.8%
1.4%
LNG Imports
Industrial
Total Change in Supply 4.1%
9.4%Residential/ Commercial
10
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversight
National Natural Gas Market Overview: Canadian Imports
Regional Imports from Canada
Source: Derived from Bentek Energy data Updated: June 2014
(2)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Jan-
05Ju
l-05
Jan-
06Ju
l-06
Jan-
07Ju
l-07
Jan-
08Ju
l-08
Jan-
09Ju
l-09
Jan-
10Ju
l-10
Jan-
11Ju
l-11
Jan-
12Ju
l-12
Jan-
13Ju
l-13
Jan-
14
Bcf
dNorthwest Net ImportsMidwest Net ImportsNortheast Net Imports
11
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversight
Total U.S. Natural Gas Demand All Sectors
National Natural Gas Market Overview: Total US Gas Demand
Source: Derived from Bentek Energy data, derived from interstate pipeline flow and modeled data.20009Updated: June 2014
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160B
cfd
2009-2013 Range
2014
12
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversight
U.S. Natural Gas Consumption for Power Generation
National Natural Gas Market Overview: NG Consumption for Power Generation
Source: Derived from Bentek Energy data20024Updated: June 2014
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
MM
cf/m
onth
2009-13 Range
2014
13
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversight
EIA National Storage Inventories by Region
National Natural Gas Market Overview: Natural Gas Storage Inventory
Source: Derived from Bloomberg Data
Notes:
Updated
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
U.S
Stor
age
Leve
ls (B
cf)
East Storage LevelWest Storage LevelProduction Area Storage Level5 Year Average
6/4/2014
14
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversight
EIA National Storage Inventories
National Natural Gas Market Overview: Natural Gas Storage Inventory
Source: Derived from Bloomberg Data
Notes:
Updated
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar
5 Year Range 2013 2014
6/4/2014
15
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversight
EIA Regional Storage Inventories
National Natural Gas Market Overview: Natural Gas Storage Inventory
Source: Derived from Bloomberg Data
Notes:
Updated 6/4/2014
16
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversight
Monthly U.S. Dry Gas Production – Lower 48 States
National Natural Gas Market Overview: Monthly U.S. Dry Gas Production
Note: Prior to July 2010, chart was derived from a combination of EIA and Bentek Energy dataSource: Derived from Bentek Energy data
20021Updated: June 2014
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Bcf
d
Dry Production
17
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversight
NG Rigs by Type
National Natural Gas Market Overview: Rig Count by Type
Source: Derived from Bloomberg data
Notes:
Updated
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800May‐10
Aug‐10
Nov‐10
Feb‐11
May‐11
Aug‐11
Nov‐11
Feb‐12
May‐12
Aug‐12
Nov‐12
Feb‐13
May‐13
Aug‐13
Nov‐13
Feb‐14
May‐14
Baker H
ughe
s Rig Co
unt (Rigs)
Oil Rigs Gas Rigs
6/4/2014
18
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversight
NG Rig by Direction
National Natural Gas Market Overview: Rig Count by Direction
Source: Derived from Bloomberg data
Notes:
Updated
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
Bake
r Hug
hes
Rigs
By
Drill
Type
Vertical Horizontal Directional
6/4/2014
19
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversight
Daily Gas Sendout from Existing U.S. LNG Facilities
National Natural Gas Market Overview: LNG Market-Daily Gas Sendout
Notes: Everett data includes flows onto the AGT and TGP interstate lines, plus estimates of flows to the Mystic 7 power plant, Keyspan Boston Gas, and LNG trucked out of the terminal. Excludes flows to the Freeport LNG which flows via intrastate pipelines and flows to the Mystic 8 and 9 power plants.
Source: Derived from Bentek Energy data3007Updated: June 2014
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
5,000D
aily
LN
G S
endo
ut (M
Mcf
d)Sabine PassLake CharlesGolden PassFreeportNortheast GatewayExcelerateCameronElba IslandCove PointEverett (Grossed)
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000 Monthly Average
20
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversight
3024Source: Waterborne Energy, Inc. Data in $US/MMBtu
World LNG Estimated July 2014 Landed Prices
Updated June 2014
National Natural Gas Market Overview: World LNG Landed Prices
Cove Point$4.50
India$11.55
UK$8.75
Spain$9.05
Belgium$8.84
Japan$12.40
Korea$12.40
Lake Charles$3.96Altamira
$4.60
Cove Point$4.40
India$11.55
UK$8.75
Spain$9.15
Belgium$8.99
Japan$13.10
Korea$13.10
Lake Charles$3.93Altamira
$4.57
Cove Point$4.50
India$11.55
UK$8.75
Spain$9.05
Belgium$8.84
Japan$12.40
Korea$12.40
Lake Charles$3.96Altamira
$4.60
Cove Point
India
UK
Spain
Belgium
Japan
Korea
Lake Charles
Altamira
Rio de Janeiro
Bahia Blanca
China
Canaport
3.61$ 4.76$
7.16$
4.13$
13.63$
13.89$
13.73$
9.80$
7.38$
12.80$ 12.85$
13.25$
13.25$
21
21
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversight
Historical and Future World Gas Prices
National Natural Gas Market Overview: LNG Competitive Price Hubs
Source: Derived from Bloomberg data
Notes:
Updated 6/4/2014
$0
$5
$10
$15
$20
$25
$30Jun‐12
Aug‐12
Oct‐1
2De
c‐12
Feb‐13
Apr‐1
3Jun‐13
Aug‐13
Oct‐1
3De
c‐13
Feb‐14
Apr‐1
4Jun‐14
Aug‐14
Oct‐1
4De
c‐14
Feb‐15
Apr‐1
5Jun‐15
$/MMBtu
Henry Hub TZ6 NYAlgonquin Citygates UKNBPJapanese LNG Spot Price Futures Prices
22
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversight
National Natural Gas Market Overview: WTI vs Brent Oil Price
Source: Derived from Bloomberg data Updated
WTI vs Brent Crude Oil Price
6/4/2014
$60
$70
$80
$90
$100
$110
$120
$130
Oil Pric
es ($/Barrel)
WtI Oil Price
Brent Crude Oil Price
23
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversight
National Natural Gas Market Overview: Nymex Futures Curve
Source: Derived from Bloomberg data Updated
Nymex Futures Curves
$0.00
$1.00
$2.00
$3.00
$4.00
$5.00
$6.00
Jul‐14
Sep‐14
Nov‐1
4Jan‐15
Mar‐15
May‐15
Jul‐15
Sep‐15
Nov‐1
5Jan‐16
Mar‐16
May‐16
Jul‐16
Sep‐16
Nov‐1
6Jan‐17
Mar‐17
May‐17
Jul‐17
Nymex Fu
tures C
urves ($/MMBtu)
6/2/2013 12/2/20135/4/2014 6/4/2014
6/4/2014
24
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversight
US Total Generation Mix
National Electricity Market Overview: Generation Mix
1207Updated: June 16, 2014
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
350000
400000
450000
Mon
thly Gen
eration (GWh)
US Total Generation Mix, Feb '12 to Mar '14
Coal Generation in Mar '14 was 137004 GWh (42%).NatGas Generation in Mar '14 was 77505 GWh (24%).Nuclear Generation in Mar '14 was 62395 GWh (19%).Hydro Generation in Mar '14 was 24243 GWh (7%).Other Renewable Generation in Mar '14 was 25712 GWh (8%).Oil Generation in Mar '14 was 965 GWh (0%).Total Generation in Mar '14 was 327824 GWh.
States: All
Source: EIA via Bloomberg
25
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversight
Natural Gas and Fuels Markets
West
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversight
West Annual Average Day Ahead Natural Gas Prices
West Natural Gas Market: Annual Hub Prices
Source: ICE
Notes:Updated 6/3/2014
Average Day Ahead Prices ($/MMBtu)
SoCal Border
Opal Wyoming Plant AECO USD
El Paso Permian
GTN Malin Oregon
Henry Hub
Annual 4.05 3.81 3.66 3.87 3.94 3.98Summer 4.18 3.89 3.78 3.99 4.03 4.14Winter 2011/2012 2.98 2.75 2.49 2.69 2.86 2.74Annual 2.91 2.68 2.39 2.67 2.73 2.75Summer 2.83 2.58 2.24 2.61 2.61 2.69Winter 2012/2013 3.62 3.46 3.22 3.38 3.52 3.47Annual 3.83 3.65 3.09 3.63 3.71 3.70Summer 3.82 3.61 2.94 3.63 3.67 3.75Winter 2013/2014 4.89 4.88 4.36 4.68 4.88 4.61
Annual 5.07 5.02 4.68 4.86 5.03 4.88Summer 4.65 4.44 4.28 4.42 4.50 4.52
Winter 2014/2015
2011
2012
2013
2014
YTD
27
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversight
West Daily Day-Ahead Prices
West Natural Gas Market: Day-Ahead Prices
Source: ICE
Notes:Updated 6/3/2014
$0.0
$5.0
$10.0
$15.0
$20.0
$25.0
$30.0
$35.0
Spot
Day
-Ahe
ad P
rices
($/M
MBt
u)
SoCal BorderOpal Wyoming PlantAECO USDEl Paso PermianGTN Malin Oregon
$0$1$2$3$4$5$6$7$8
2011 2012 2013 2014
30 Day Moving Avg
28
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversight
West Daily Day-Ahead Basis
West Natural Gas Market: Day-Ahead Basis
Source: ICE
Notes:
Updated 6/3/2014
-$5.0
$0.0
$5.0
$10.0
$15.0
$20.0
$25.0
Day A
head
Bas
is ($
/MM
Btu)
SoCal Border BasisOpal Wyoming Plant BasisAECO USD BasisEl Paso Permian BasisGTN Malin Oregon Basis
-$2.0-$1.0$0.0$1.0$2.0
2011 2012 2013 2014
30D Moving Avg
29
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversight
West Average Monthly Basis
West Natural Gas Market: Average Monthly Basis
Source: ICE
Notes:
Updated 6/3/2014
-$0.40
-$0.20
$0.00
$0.20
$0.40
$0.60
$0.80
$1.00
$1.20
Jun Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
2012 2013 2014
Avg
Mon
thly
Day-
Ahea
d Ba
si ($
/MM
Btu)
Avg Monthly SoCal BasisAvg Monthly Opal BasisAvg Monthly El Paso Permian BasisAvg Monthly GTN Malin Basis
30
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversight
Daily Rockies Natural Gas Demand All Sectors
West Natural Gas Market: Daily Demand
Source: Derived from Bentek Energy data
22050Updated: May 2014
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7B
cfd
2009-2013 Range
2014
31
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversight
Daily Southwest and Northwest Natural Gas Demand All Sectors
West Natural Gas Market: Daily Demand
Source: Derived from Bentek Energy data
Note: Data derived from interstate natural gas pipeline flows.22050Updated: May 2014
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
Bcf
d
2009-2013 Range
2014
0
1
2
3
4
5
Bcf
d
2009-2013 Range
2014
Southwest Northwest
32
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversight
West Natural Gas Consumption for Power Generation
West Natural Gas Market: NG Consumption for Power Generation
Source: Derived from Bentek Energy data20024Updated: May 2014
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
MM
cf/m
onth
2009-13 Range
2014
33
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversight
Electricity Markets
West
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversight
CAISO Real Time Prices—Two Year History
West Electricity Market: CAISO Real Time Prices
Updated: June 16, 2014
-50
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350M
ay-1
2Ju
n-12
Jul-1
2A
ug-1
2Se
p-12
Oct
-12
Nov
-12
Dec
-12
Jan-
13Fe
b-13
Mar
-13
Apr
-13
May
-13
Jun-
13Ju
l-13
Aug
-13
Sep-
13O
ct-1
3N
ov-1
3D
ec-1
3Ja
n-14
Feb-
14M
ar-1
4A
pr-1
4M
ay-1
4
Wei
ghte
d D
aily
Avg
($/M
Wh)
Prior Year Yesterday's SCE Daily Avg Real Time Price was $43.52.Yesterday's SDG&E Avg Real Time Price was $45.11. Yesterday's PG&E Daily Avg Real Time Price was $41.43.
Source: Genscape via Bloomberg
35
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversight
CAISO System Daily Average Load —Two Year History
West Electricity Market: CAISO Average Daily Load
Updated: June 16, 2014
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
Weighted Daily Avg Loa
d (GW)
Prior Year Yesterday's average on peak load was 26 GW. Yesterday's average off‐peak load was 22 GW.
Source: Genscape via Bloomberg
36
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversight
‐5000
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
Mon
thly Gen
eration (GWh)
Mountain Regional Generation Mix, Feb '12 to Mar '14
Coal Generation in Mar '14 was 15353 GWh (54%).Gas Generation in Mar '14 was 4285 GWh (15%).Hydro Generation in Mar '14 was 3157 GWh (11%).Othr Renew Generation in Mar '14 was 2842 GWh (10%).Nuclear Generation in Mar '14 was 2967 GWh (10%).Oil Generation in Mar '14 was 30 GWh (0%).Total Generation in Mar '14 was 28634 GWh.
States: AZ, CO, ID, MT, NM, NV, UT, WY
Source: EIA via Bloomberg
Updated: June 16, 2014
37
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversight
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
Mon
thly Gen
eration (GWh)
Pacific Contiguous Regional Generation Mix, Feb '12 to Mar '14
Hydro Generation in Mar '14 was 12962 GWh (43%).Gas Generation in Mar '14 was 9361 GWh (31%).Nuclear Generation in Mar '14 was 1796 GWh (6%).Renew Generation in Mar '14 was 5101 GWh (17%).Coal Generation in Mar '14 was 604 GWh (2%).Oil Generation in Mar '14 was 13 GWh (0%).Total Generation in Mar '14 was 29837 GWh.
States: CA, OR, WA
Source: EIA via Bloomberg
Updated: June 16, 2014
38
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversight
One Year Ago One Month Ago Current2/2/2014 3/2/2014 4/2/2014
California 46% 27% 33%Idaho 87% 78% 114%
Montana 96% 111% 142%Oregon 94% 38% 61%
Washington 115% 53% 99%Columbia River Basin 98% 64% 102%
Source: California Department of Water Resources, U.S. Department of Agriculture Natural Resources Conservation Service
Northwest Snowpack Improves
State/Region
Snow Water Equivalent(% of Historic Median)
Updated: June 20, 2014
Northwest Snowpack39
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversight
Updated: June 20, 2014
Monthly Hydrogeneration by Footprint
Source: Derived from Energy Velocity and BPA data.
40
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight • www.ferc.gov/oversight
Hydrogeneration in BPA by Year
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000G
Wh
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Source: BPAUpdated: June 20, 2014
41