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Election 2020

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Verified Voter Omnibus Survey N=1,006 Likely Electorate October 16 - October 22, 2020

We know that on Election Day, those who turn out to vote won't necessarily look like the pool of all registered voters. Some voters are more likely to turn out than others, and polling should reflect that reality. But not everyone who shows up to vote on Election Day is a "likely voter," and often times, pollsters' methods of excluding "unlikely voters" can leave out those who are becoming newly activated.

That's why we at Echelon Insights made the switch not to a "likely voter" sample which arbitrarily excludes certain voters, but to our "Likely Electorate" (LE) frame, which accounts for voter turnout probability in how we weight our national survey.

We surveyed N = 1,006 registered voters in the Likely Electorate online using a voter file-matched sample as part of our monthly Verified Voter Omnibus tracking survey of the 2020 political environment. The sample was weighted to known characteristics of the 2020 “Likely Electorate” population, a frame which takes into account demographic and turnout characteristics of the 2020 electorate.

Meet the Likely Electorate

Biden Leads +7; Democrats Lead +4 in Generic Congressional Ballot Match-Up

Republican Democrat

9%40%

8%36%

Q. If the 2020 presidential election were being held today, would you vote for… Q. If the election for Congress were held today and you had to make a choice, for whom would you vote?

3

Trump Biden

4%47%4%

40%

Definitely R Probably R Definitely D Probably D

Vote for President Vote for Congress

Biden +7 Democratic candidate +4

44%51%

(Unsure: 8%)(Unsure: 5%)

44% 48%

Q. How do you plan to cast your ballot in the November 2020 general election?

48% PLAN TO VOTE

47% ALREADY VOTED PARTY AFFILIATION

More Democrats Have Already Cast Their Votes

4

I have already voted by mail or absentee ballot

I have already voted early in person 10%

37%

2%55%6%37%

GOP+Lean IND DEM+Lean Other/Unsure

1%39%9%50%

I plan to vote on Election Day, in person at a polling place

I plan to vote early in person

I plan to vote by mail or absentee ballot 11%

15%

22%

Q. If the 2020 presidential election were being held today, would you vote for...

Biden Leads +28 Among Those Who Have Already Voted

Trump Biden

6%36%

5%48%

5

Trump Biden

2%61%

1%34%

Definitely R Probably R Definitely D Probably D

Already Voted Plan To Vote

Biden +28 Trump +11

35%

63%

53%42%

(Unsure: 6%)(Unsure: 2%)

Biden Leads Full Presidential BallotQ. If the 2020 presidential election were being held today, would you vote for...

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Joe Biden

Donald Trump

Jo Jorgensen

Howie Hawkins

Kanye West

Unsure 3%

0%

1%

1%

44%

50%Joe Biden

Donald Trump

Jo Jorgensen Libertarian

Howie Hawkins Green Party

Kanye West Independent

Unsure

Biden Holds Highest Net Favorability Ranking

7

Joe Biden

Kamala Harris

Donald Trump

Mike Pence 49%

56%

47%

48%

1%

1%

8%

1%

5%

3%

42%

42%

47%

49%

Very/Somewhat Favorable

Heard of, no opinion

Never heard of

Very/Somewhat Unfavorable

Q. Do you have a favorable or unfavorable view of the following individuals who have been in the news lately?

NET Favorable-Unfavorable

+1

EVEN

-14

-7

Q. If the 2020 presidential election were being held today, would you vote for…

8

Presidential Ballot Margin Steady From September

40% 41% 43% 42% 42% 38% 39% 43% 44%

10% 8% 5% 7% 8% 9% 8% 6% 5%

49% 51% 52% 51% 50% 53% 53% 51% 51%

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct

Donald Trump Unsure Joe Biden

65% Say U.S. Headed In The Wrong DirectionQ. Would you say things in the United States are headed in the right direction, or is the country off on the wrong track?

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35% 32% 33%28% 24% 21% 22%

28% 29%

54% 55% 56%61%

66% 70% 68% 65% 65%

11% 12% 11% 11% 10% 9% 10% 7% 6%

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct

Right direction Wrong track Unsure

Trump Approval Margin Steady From SeptemberQ. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump is handling his job as President?

10

42% 44% 44% 43% 41% 37% 40% 44% 44%

55% 54% 54% 54% 58% 60% 58% 54% 55%

3% 1% 2% 2% 1% 2% 2% 2% 1%

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct

Approve Disapprove Unsure

Voters Divided On Trump’s Handling Of The EconomyQ. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump is handling the U.S. economy?

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48%

47% 46% 46% 46%41% 44% 48% 48%47%

50% 51% 52% 52% 55% 53% 49% 51%

5% 3% 2% 2% 2% 3% 3% 2% 1%

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct

Approve Disapprove Unsure

41% Approve, 58% Disapprove Of Trump’s Handling Of COVID-19Q. Do you approve or disapprove of how Donald Trump is handling the spread of the coronavirus in the United States?

12

51%

45% 41% 41%32% 36%

41% 41%46%

52% 56% 57%64% 60% 56% 58%

3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 2%

Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct

Approve Disapprove Unsure

Q. Who do you expect to win the 2020 Presidential election?

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Likely Electorate

Trump Voters

Biden Voters 2%

84%

38%

Donald Trump Joe Biden Unsure

Each Candidates’ Voters Confident About Victory

18%

14%

18%

79%

3%

44%

September

October 84%

86%

Donald Trump Joe Biden Unsure

3%

2%

14%

13%

Q. Who do you expect to win the 2020 Presidential election?

2%

5%

18%

27%

79%

68%

14

More Biden Voters Confident About Win Than In September

TRUMP VOTERS BIDEN VOTERS

Most Want Unified Government After November

15

Dem control

Republican control

Divided

Unsure 9%

11%

38%

42%Unified Democratic control of the

Presidency and Congress

Unified Republican control of the Presidency and Congress

Divided government with different parties controlling the Presidency and

Congress

Unsure

Q. Which would you prefer to be the outcome of the November 2020 general election?

More Biden Voters Among Those Open To Divided Government

16

Would Prefer… Vote for President Vote for Congress

Unified Democratic control of the Presidency and Congress

(42% of the Likely Electorate)BIDEN+95 DEMOCRATIC CANDIDATE+91

Unified Republican control of the Presidency and Congress

(38% of the Likely Electorate)TRUMP+95 REPUBLICAN CANDIDATE+91

Divided government with different parties controlling the Presidency and

Congress (11% of the Likely Electorate)

BIDEN+19 DEMOCRATIC CANDIDATE+8

Beyond our own public releases, the Verified Voter Omnibus is a resource companies and organizations can use to answer mission-critical questions through add-on questions to the monthly survey. It's the perfect tool for tracking a few core questions over time or gathering that one bit of crucial public opinion data you need right now.

By adding on to the Verified Voter Omnibus, you’ll receive:

Hands-on assistance with drafting your questions Full topline and crosstabs with 2020 election questions included A customized slide deck with your results

Contact omnibus@echeloninsights.com for more information.

Your questions answered by real voters