Operating Agent, Task 1, IEA PVPS Programme PS PV€¦ · PHOTOVOLTAIC POWER SYSTEMS PROGRAMME Primer Coloquio Internacional para el Fomento de la Energia Fotovoltaica en Mexico Zacatecas,

PHOTOVOLTAIC POWER SYSTEMS PROGRAMME

Primer Coloquio Internacional para el Fomento de la Energia Fotovoltaica en Mexico Zacatecas, June 2007

IEA International Energy Agency

PVPS

Introduction to IEA PVPS,Introduction to IEA PVPS,and some recent resultsand some recent results

Greg WattOperating Agent, Task 1, IEA PVPS Programme




PVPS

OUTLINEOUTLINE……....

The IEA, & the IEA PVPS Programme

IEA PVPS Task 1, & our key activities

Some of our recent analyses & results.




PVPS

IEA ActivitiesIEA Activities

International Energy AgencyEnergy security and environmentGoverning Board & CERTWorking Parties (4) & ImplementingAgreements (42)Renewable Energy Working Party – 9 IAsincluding PVPS




PVPS

The PVPS ProgrammeThe PVPS Programmewww.iea-pvps.orgwww.iea-pvps.org

Collaborative R & D agreement establishedwithin the IEA since 1993.The 20 participating countries are Australia,Austria, Canada, Denmark, France, Germany,Israel, Italy, Japan, Korea, Mexico, theNetherlands, Norway, Portugal, Spain, Sweden,Switzerland, Turkey, the United Kingdom andthe United States of America. The EuropeanCommission and EPIA are also members.Malaysia is currently an active ‘observer’.




PVPS

IEA PVPS featuresIEA PVPS features

Regarded as “one of the most active,successful programmes”Global network of expertiseBroad variety of stakeholdersIndependent, objective, neutralGuided by all members through ExCo,work carried out on a task-shared basisAnalyses & recommendations carryweight because of the IEA connection.




PVPS

Current PVPS activities (tasks)Current PVPS activities (tasks)www.iea-pvps.orgwww.iea-pvps.org

Information exchange & disseminationPerformance, reliability & analysisVery large scale systemsPV services for developing countriesUrban scale PV applicationsHybrid systemsEnvironmental Safety & Health




PVPS

Task 1Task 1

All PVPS countries (plus…) are Task 1membersPromote and facilitate informationexchange and dissemination concerningthe technical, economic, environmentaland social aspects of photovoltaic powersystems




PVPS

Our key activities (1)Our key activities (1)

An important deliverable of Task 1 isthe annual Trends in photovoltaicapplications report11 published since 1995Largely based on the informationprovided in the National Survey Reportswhich are produced annually by eachTask 1 participant.




PVPS

Our key activities (2)Our key activities (2)

PVPower newsletter2 issues per yearIEA PVPS and general PV news




PVPS

Our key activities (3)Our key activities (3)- the so-called special information activities- the so-called special information activities

A range of activities, including workshopsand documents, provide analysis andsummary assessment of special topics.Directed at technical, economic,environmental and social aspects of PVsystems and applicationsUsually managed by a specific country ora group of countries from the Task 1membership.




PVPS

Spectacular market growth!Spectacular market growth!(market size doubling roughly every 2 years)(market size doubling roughly every 2 years)

Market size doubling roughly every 2 years

Cumulative installed grid-connected and off-grid PV power in the reporting countries

0

500

1 000

1 500

2 000

2 500

3 000

3 500

4 000

1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

Grid-connect

Off-grid

MW

42%




PVPSBut, where does PV electricity presentlyBut, where does PV electricity presently

fit in the larger energy picture?fit in the larger energy picture?

1

10

100

1,000

10,000

100,000

Global electricityconsumption

PV electricity

Currently 1/50 of one percentage point!Maybe a couple of percentage points by 2020

TWh




PVPS

Public spending on PV:Public spending on PV: a billion dollar plus enterprise! a billion dollar plus enterprise!

R,D&D and market support;

Over a decade, public spending on PV has doubled, with relativelysteady increases from year to year;

Initially this spending was largely focused on RD&D; 1994 – 4:1

The amount spent on market support increased at the expense ofRD&D (in both absolute and relative terms) until 2001; ’01 – 3:7

2004 saw the previously steadily increasing budgets for marketsupport decrease for the first time in a decade;

From 2001 RD&D expenditure has been both increasing, andincreasing its share of the total PV public expenditure. ’04 – 1:1




PVPS

A A ‘‘realreal’’ market market……??

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

MW

Breakdown

Supported grid-connected Unsupported grid-connected

Unsupported off-grid Supported off-grid

2005 market

30 000 residential PV systems in Japan

85% in Japan & Germany




PVPS

PV market support frameworksPV market support frameworks

Enhanced feed-in tariffsDirect capital subsidiesGreen electricity schemesRenewable portfolio standards

plus emerging mechanisms…

Preferential home mortgage termsGreen loans from commercial banksShare offerings in private PV investmentfundsTax credits




PVPS

In an ideal worldIn an ideal world……

Various measures can be combined to functionmore effectively

Funding issues are given due consideration

The support framework is stable over time,separate from political interference,transparent and clearly targeted

In the real world….




PVPS

Patterns of annual installed capacityPatterns of annual installed capacity(values for 2003 set equal)(values for 2003 set equal)

Country 1 Country 2 Country 3 Country 4

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

Healthy growth

Undulating market

Panic &collapse

Explosivegrowth




PVPS

Longer-term industry trendsLonger-term industry trends

PV module production and module production capacity

1993 1995 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

ProductionCapacity

MW

1 000

2 000




PVPS

Industry value chainIndustry value chainGrowth: 2004 Growth: 2004 2005 2005

1 629 2 527 55%Module Production Capacity, MW/yr

1 295 2 152 66%Cell Production Capacity, MW/yr

1 160 1 532 32%PV Module Production, MW

1 109 1 500 35%PV Cell Production, MW

(Ingot & wafer production)

8 900 11 000 24%Silicon feedstock(tonnes sold to PV industry)




PVPS

The key playersThe key playersPV cell production (MW) by country in 2005

Japan (823,5)

Germany (341,8)

US (156,3)

Spain (70*)

Australia (35,6)

France (33,5)

Norway (20,0)

Italy (11,6)

Korea (5,3)

UK (1,8)




PVPS

The key players (2) ..The key players (2) ..

Share of PV cell production in the reporting countries by company in 2005 (%)

Sharp (JPN)28%

Q-Cells (DEU)11%

Kyocera (JPN)9%

Sanyo Electric (JPN)8%

Mitsubishi Electric (JPN)7%

RWE Schott (DEU, USA)6%

Others (23 companies)16%

BP Solar (AUS, ESP, USA)5%

Shell Solar (DEU, USA)4%

Isofoton (ESP)4% Photowatt International (FRA)

2%




PVPS

Evolution of price of PV modules and systems in 3 selected reporting countries, accounting for inflation effects

-

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

#1 modules#1 systems#2 modules#2 systems#3 modules#3 systems

Continuing price falls?Continuing price falls?BBooming demand and tight feedstock supplyooming demand and tight feedstock supply

The PV economists’Holy Grail!

ConstantUSD/W




PVPSPVPV’’s s ‘‘additionaladditional’’ values values –– or how or how

to sell expensive technology!to sell expensive technology!

ElectricalPeak demand reduction, supply security, reduced line losses, power

quality improvement…

EnvironmentalReduced emissions, water use & safety risks from power generation..

ArchitecturalMulti-functional, reduced embodied & purchased energy…

Socio-economicNew industries, products & markets, energy supply diversity, local

employment, sustainable development, aid mechanism…




PVPS

Some challenges for policy makersSome challenges for policy makers……

How secure is political support for PV if prices do notfall, wealth flows to other countries and local jobs donot materialize?

Global market, vigorous demand & tight supply –opportunities for small players and innovators (andcountries) OR large (established) players to thrive atthe expense of all others?

To what extent should the market’s willingness topay for grid-connected PV be explored before publicresources are allocated?

Documents

Operating Agent, Task 1, IEA PVPS Programme PS PV€¦ · PHOTOVOLTAIC POWER SYSTEMS PROGRAMME Primer Coloquio Internacional para el Fomento de la Energia Fotovoltaica en Mexico Zacatecas,