Operational Forum Meeting

Wednesday 13th March 2013 - 10:30AM

Radisson Grafton Hotel, 130 Tottenham Court Road, London.

System Management Principles Statement

� Compliance report for February 2013

� Summary of balancing actions and breaches for February 2013

� Performance compared to last year

3

Summary Report

31Total

16Total Number of Sell Actions

15Total Number of Buy Actions

Feb 2013

0

0

59

Feb 2012

0Number of Non-Material Breaches

(Calendar year to date)

0Number of Material Breaches

(Calendar year to date)

72Number of Balancing Actions

(Calendar year to date)

Feb 2013

0Number of Non-Material Breaches

0Number of Material Breaches

Feb 2013

Weather

5

National Composite WeatherOctober 2012 – February 2013

6

Composite Weather Variables February 2013

Demands

8

Gas Demand Breakdown1st Oct 2012 to 8th Mar 2013

Gas Demand Breakdown

1st October 2012 to 8th March 2013 vs 2011/12

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

01-O

ct-

12

08-O

ct-

12

15-O

ct-

12

22-O

ct-

12

29-O

ct-

12

05-N

ov-1

2

12-N

ov-1

2

19-N

ov-1

2

26-N

ov-1

2

03-D

ec-1

2

10-D

ec-1

2

17-D

ec-1

2

24-D

ec-1

2

31-D

ec-1

2

07-J

an

-13

14-J

an

-13

21-J

an

-13

28-J

an

-13

04-F

eb

-13

11-F

eb

-13

18-F

eb

-13

25-F

eb

-13

04-M

ar-

13

mcm

NDM DM (Excl Interconnectors) Total Interconnector Export

Storage Injection SND Cold DemandWarm Demand Previous Years Demand

9

LDZ Demand1st Oct 2012 to 9th March 2013

Gas Demand Breakdown [LDZ 2012/13 vs 2011/12] vs NTS Demand / CWV's

1st October 2012 to 9th March 2013

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

01-O

ct-

12

08-O

ct-

12

15-O

ct-

12

22-O

ct-

12

29-O

ct-

12

05-N

ov-1

2

12-N

ov-1

2

19-N

ov-1

2

26-N

ov-1

2

03-D

ec-1

2

10-D

ec-1

2

17-D

ec-1

2

24-D

ec-1

2

31-D

ec-1

2

07-J

an

-13

14-J

an

-13

21-J

an

-13

28-J

an

-13

04-F

eb

-13

11-F

eb

-13

18-F

eb

-13

25-F

eb

-13

04-M

ar-

13

Gas Day

mcm

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

LDZ Demand 2012/13 LDZ Demand 2011/12 NTS Demand 2012/13 CWV 2012/13

10

Power Generation1st October 2012 to 28th February 2013

Gas Consumption for Power Generation

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

01/10/2012 01/11/2012 01/12/2012 01/01/2013 01/02/2013

MC

M / d

Actual High Power Model Low Power Previous Year

Supplies

12

Gas Supply Breakdown 1st Oct 2012 to 8th March 2013

Gas Supply Breakdown

1st October 2012 to 8th March 2013

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

01-O

ct-

12

08-O

ct-

12

15-O

ct-

12

22-O

ct-

12

29-O

ct-

12

05-N

ov-1

2

12-N

ov-1

2

19-N

ov-1

2

26-N

ov-1

2

03-D

ec-1

2

10-D

ec-1

2

17-D

ec-1

2

24-D

ec-1

2

31-D

ec-1

2

07-J

an

-13

14-J

an

-13

21-J

an

-13

28-J

an

-13

04-F

eb

-13

11-F

eb

-13

18-F

eb

-13

25-F

eb

-13

04-M

ar-

13

Gas Day

mcm

/d

UKCS Norw ay (est) LNG Imports

BBL I(UK) LRS Supplies

MRS Supplies SRS Supplies Previous Year Actual Supply

13

Gas Supply Breakdown – IUK1st Feb to 6th March 2013

IUK Export / Import volumes Feb - Mar 2013 vs Previous Year / SAP

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

01

-Fe

b

04

-Fe

b

07

-Fe

b

10

-Fe

b

13

-Fe

b

16

-Fe

b

19

-Fe

b

22

-Fe

b

25

-Fe

b

28

-Fe

b

03

-Ma

r

06

-Ma

r

Vo

lum

es (

mcm

)

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

IUK Export IUK Import IUK Import [Previous Year] IUK Export [Previous Year] SAP SAP [Previous Year]

14

Gas Supply Breakdown – LNG1st Feb to 6th Mar 2013

LNG terminal flows Feb - Mar 2013 vs Previous Year / SAP

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

01

-Fe

b

03

-Fe

b

05

-Fe

b

07

-Fe

b

09

-Fe

b

11

-Fe

b

13

-Fe

b

15

-Fe

b

17

-Fe

b

19

-Fe

b

21

-Fe

b

23

-Fe

b

25

-Fe

b

27

-Fe

b

01

-Ma

r

03

-Ma

r

05

-Ma

r

Vo

lum

es (

mcm

)

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

Pri

ce

(p

/th

)

SouthHookTer DragonTer Isle of grain

DragonTer [Previous Year] Isle of grain [Previous Year] SouthHookTer [Previous Year]

SAP SAP [Previous Year]

15

Gas Supply Breakdown – Storage1st Feb to 6th Mar 2013

Storage flows Feb - Mar 2013 vs Previous Year / SAP

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

01-F

eb

03-F

eb

05-F

eb

07-F

eb

09-F

eb

11-F

eb

13-F

eb

15-F

eb

17-F

eb

19-F

eb

21-F

eb

23-F

eb

25-F

eb

27-F

eb

01-M

ar

03-M

ar

05-M

ar

Volu

mes (

mcm

)

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

Storage Storage [Previous Year] SAP SAP [Previous Year]

16

Gas Supply Breakdown – Norway1st Feb to 6th Mar 2013

Norwegian* supply volumes Feb - Mar 2013 vs Previous Year / SAP

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

01

-Feb

03

-Feb

05

-Feb

07

-Feb

09

-Feb

11

-Feb

13

-Feb

15

-Feb

17

-Feb

19

-Feb

21

-Feb

23

-Feb

25

-Feb

27

-Feb

01

-Ma

r

03

-Ma

r

05

-Ma

r

Volu

me

s (

mcm

)

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

Pri

ce (

p/t

h)

Norway* Norway* [Previous Year] SAP SAP [Previous Year] *Estimated

17

Storage Stocks - UK1st Oct 2012 to 6th Mar 2013

LRS Stocks

0.00

5.00

10.00

15.00

20.00

25.00

30.00

35.00

40.00

45.00

Oct

Nov

Dec

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

TW

h

LRS 2010/2011 LRS 2011/2012 LRS 2012/2013

MRS Stocks

0.00

2.00

4.00

6.00

8.00

10.00

12.00

Oct

Nov

Dec

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

TW

h

MRS 2010/2011 MRS 2011/2012 MRS 2012/2013

SRS Stocks

0.00

0.10

0.20

0.30

0.40

0.50

0.60

0.70

Oct

Nov

Dec

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

TW

h

MRS 2010/2011 SRS 2011/2012 SRS 2012/2013

18

Storage Stocks - EUFrom 1st Oct 2012 to 1st Mar 2013 vs Previous Years

Total EU Weekly Storage Levels

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

Oct

No

v

De

c

Ja

n

Fe

b

Ma

r

Ap

r

Ma

y

Ju

n

Ju

l

Au

g

Se

p

Date

mc

m

2010/2011 2011/2012 2012/2013

Hub Area Stock Level (mcm) % Full

Baumgarten 5816 34%

Germany 8011 38%

Iberian 1760 61%

NBP 838 18%

France 2127 17%

PSV 7437 47%

SOUTH-EAST 133 29%

TTF (Eurohub) 910 44%

ZEE 226 32%

Total Hubs 27256 36%

Stocklevel Status at 06:00CET on

Wed 06/03/2013

Transporter Actions and Neutrality

20

System Prices1st Feb 2013 to 9th Mar 2013

System Prices

1st Feb 2013 to 9th March 2013 Vs Previous Years SAP

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

01

-Feb-1

3

04

-Feb-1

3

07

-Feb-1

3

10

-Feb-1

3

13

-Feb-1

3

16

-Feb-1

3

19

-Feb-1

3

22

-Feb-1

3

25

-Feb-1

3

28

-Feb-1

3

03

-Mar-

13

06

-Mar-

13

09

-Mar-

13

p/t

herm

SAP SMP Buy SMP Sell SAP Previous Year

21

Transporter Energy Traded on the OCMMar 2012 to Feb 2013

-362434052012

-7525412013 [Jan / Feb]

Sell [GWh]Buy [GWh]Year

National Grid Monthly Buys and Sells

Mar 2012 to Feb 2013 vs 2011/12

-1,400

-1,200

-1,000

-800

-600

-400

-200

0

200

400

600

Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12 Jul-12 Aug-12 Sep-12 Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12 Jan-13 Feb-13

Month

GW

h

-1,400

-1,200

-1,000

-800

-600

-400

-200

0

200

400

600

Buy 2012/13 Buy 2011/12 Sell 2012/13 Sell 2011/12

22

Days of Default SMP PricesFrom Mar 2012 to Feb 2013

64%79%79%Feb 13

BothSMPSSMPBMonth

SMPB Calculation Summary

Mar 2012 to Feb 2013

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

%ag

e

SMPB [NG Set Price] SMPB [Default Marginal]

SMPS Calculation Summary

Mar 2012 to Feb 2013

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

%a

ge

SMPS [NG Set Price] SMPS [Default Marginal]

23

Energy Balancing Feb 2012 to Jan 2013

-£0.12-£0.26£3.38-£3.24Jan 2013

-£10.81-£3.79-£6.73-£0.29Jan – Dec 2012

Bal CostsSchedulingImbalanceOCMYear

Balancing Costs

Feb 2012 to Jan 2013

-£12.00

-£9.00

-£6.00

-£3.00

£0.00

£3.00

£6.00

£9.00

£12.00

Feb-1

2

Mar-

12

Apr-

12

May-1

2

Jun-1

2

Jul-12

Aug-1

2

Sep-1

2

Oct-

12

Nov-1

2

Dec-1

2

Jan-1

3

Month

£m

OCM Imbalance Sched

24

Transporter Actions / Imbalance / Scheduling From 1st Feb 2012 to 31st Jan 2013

Yearly Period

System Quantity (TWh) Average (p/kWh) Price (p/therm) Cost £m

System Buy 0.86 2.23 65.26 19.25

System Sell -0.65 2.44 71.47 -15.87

Total 0.21 3.38

Jan-13

Shipper Imbalances - Revenue Costs

Feb 2012 to Jan 2013

-£40.00

-£30.00

-£20.00

-£10.00

£0.00

£10.00

£20.00

£30.00

£40.00

Feb-1

2

Mar-

12

Apr-

12

May-1

2

Jun-1

2

Jul-12

Aug-1

2

Sep-1

2

Oct-12

Nov-1

2

Dec-1

2

Jan-1

3

Month

£m

System Cost - Buy System Cost - Sell

```

Yearly Period

Cost Type Type Cost £m

Scheduling Input -0.15

Scheduling Ouput -0.10

Total -0.25

Jan-13

Transporter Actions on OCM

Feb 2012 to Jan 2013

-£15

-£10

-£5

£0

£5

£10

Feb-1

2

Mar-

12

Apr-

12

May-1

2

Jun-1

2

Jul-12

Aug-1

2

Sep-1

2

Oct-

12

Nov-1

2

Dec-1

2

Jan-1

3

Month

£m

System Cost - Buy System Cost - Sell

Yearly Period

Buy_Sell_Ind1 Quantity (TWh) Average (p/kWh) Price (Therms) Cost (£m)

System Buy 0.27 2.37 69.40 6.45System Sell 0.44 2.20 64.59 -9.70

Total 0.71 -3.24

Jan 2013

Scheduling Revenues

Feb 2012 to Jan 2013

-£0.70

-£0.60

-£0.50

-£0.40

-£0.30

-£0.20

-£0.10

£0.00

Feb-1

2

Mar-

12

Apr-

12

May-1

2

Jun-1

2

Jul-12

Aug-1

2

Sep-1

2

Oct-

12

Nov-1

2

Dec-1

2

Jan-1

3

Month

£m

Input Output

25

Capacity NeutralityNet Cost / Revenue

From 1st April 2012 to 31st January 2013

Month Revenue / Costs

WDDSEC/DAI Revenue -£317,234

Buy Back Costs £0

Capacity management Agreement Costs £0

Entry Capacity Overrun Revenue -£372,407

Non-Obligated Sales Revenue -£487,859

Revenue from Locational Sells and PRI Charges £0

Net Revenue -£1,177,500

26

Capacity NeutralityRevenues from WDDSEC and DAI, Buybacks and Capacity

Management Agreement

From 1st April 2012 to 31st January 2013

St Fergus -£88,001

Teesside -£17,111

Barrow -£147

Theddlethorpe -£12,698

Easington -£169,894

Bacton -£29,380

Other -£4

Net Revenue -£317,234

Capacity Neutrality

Revenues from WDDSEC and DAI

April 2012 to January 2013

£0

£20,000

£40,000

£60,000

£80,000

£100,000

£120,000

£140,000

£160,000

£180,000

St Fer

gusTe

essid

e

Bar

row

Theddle

thorp

eEas

ingt

on

Bac

ton

Oth

er

No 'Total Capacity Constraint

Management Costs' [Prompt Buy Backs /

Capacity Management Agreement]

during the period 1st April 2012 to 31st

January 2013

27

Capacity NeutralityRevenues from Entry Cap Overruns and Non-Obligated Sales,

and Locational Sells and PRI Charges.

From 1st April 2012 to 31st January 2013

Month

Entry Cap Overrun

Revenue

Non-Obligated Sales

Revenue

Apr-12 -£98,225 -£12

May-12 -£68,751 £0

Jun-12 -£3 £0

Jul-12 -£10,523 £0

Aug-12 -£3,207 £0

Sep-12 -£33,032 £0

Oct-12 -£27,884 -£55,974

Nov-12 -£32,623 -£54,168.00

Dec-12 -£56,108 -£55,973.60

Jan-13 -£42,050 -£321,731.10

Feb-13

Mar-13

TOTAL -£372,407 -£487,859

Month

Locational Sells and PRI

Charges Revenue

Apr-12 £0.00

May-12 £0.00

Jun-12 £0.00

Jul-12 £0.00

Aug-12 £0.00

Sep-12 £0.00

Oct-12 £0.00

Nov-12 £0.00

Dec-12 £0.00

Jan-13 £0.00

Feb-13

Mar-13

TOTAL £0.00