Oppenheimer Technical Sept 2010

8/8/2019 Oppenheimer Technical Sept 2010

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Oppenheimer Asset Management Inc. 200 Park Avenue New York, NY 10166 Tel: 800-221-5588 Fax: 212-667-49

MONEY IN MOTIONTECHNICAL ANALYSIS & RESEARCHA division of Oppenheimer Asset Management Inc.

Carter Braxton WorthChief Market Technician (212) [email protected]

September 7, 2010

C.B. Worth Money In Motion

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The Bulls out there right now are looking at the market and basically thinking this:

Source: Oppenheimer Asset Mgmt and Thomson Reuters

The Bears out there see things this way:


S&P 500

S&P 500

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS


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The market-is-fair-money/dead-money crowd (we ourselves are of this view) see the market like this:


So what to do?

Wed say just let the market worry about itself for now. Dont bother with the imponderable. Instead, spend

the remainder of the year in search of winnerswinners due to a winning story, or a winning chart pattern, orwinning valuation, or winning yield in this low-yield/no-yield environment winners (short or long) that offersomething beyond the impossible/imponderable subject of whether equities as an asset class in the autumnof 2010 are a good buy or not.

As chartists, we confine the search for winners to charts.

On the pages that follow weve singled stocks that, by our work, are winners.

Group 1 is composed of stocks judged to be in the throes of Bearish-to-Bullish Reversals whosebottoming-out formations are well defined and imply meaningfully higher prices in the weeks/months ahead.

Group 2 is composed of Conventional Buys stocks at or just below well-defined intermediate topstoying with the prospects of breakout-type moves above said tops.

Group 3 is composed of SELLs (of all types) with the majority of the names being: 1) stocks in the throes ofBullish-to-Bearish Reversals (stocks judged to have taken on rollover casts); and 2) Rallies to Difficult Levels (heretofore weak stocks that have rallied hard of late and now are back up to levels whereoverhead supply comes into play and/or are back up to a declining smoothing mechanism (the 150-daymoving average).

S&P 500

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS


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Group 1 is composed of stocks judged to be in the throes of Bearish-to-Bullish Reversals whosebottoming-out formations are well defined and imply meaningfully higher prices in the weeks/months ahead.

Stocks that look/act like this:


That look/act like this:


TECHNICAL ANALYSIS


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And like this:


Group 1 (BUYs)

PRICE MRKT CAPPER SHR (MILS)

ALEXZA PHARMACEUTIC ALXA 3.02 PHARMACEUTICALS 180.000ALLEGHENY ENERGY AYE 23.72 ELECTRIC UTILITIES 4022.000ALLETE ALE 36.79 ELECTRIC UTILITIES 1304.000APPROACHES RESOURCES AREX 9.05 OIL & GAS-EXPL/PROD 191.000ASSURANT AIZ 38.72 INSURANCE-MULTI-LINE 4330.000

ASTRONICS ATRO 16.64 AEROSPACE/DEFENSE 180.000CARACO PHARM LABS CPD 5.29 PHARMACEUTICALS 207.000CELERA CRA 7.01 BIOTECHNOLOGY 575.000CERADYNE CRDN 24.16 AEROSPACE/DEFENSE 615.000CH ENERGY GROUP CHG 42.68 MULTI-UTILITIES 675.000

CLEAN HARBORS CLH 62.80 SERVICES-ENVIRONMNTL 1650.000COLEMAN CABLE CCIX 5.98 ELECTRICAL COMPONENT 104.000COLFAX CFX 13.73 MACHINERY INDUSTRIAL 596.000CONOCOPHILLIPS COP 55.05 OIL & GAS-INTEGRATED 81932.000COSTAR GROUP CSGP 44.02 RESEARCH & CONSLTING 911.000

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS


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CROWN MEDIA HLDGS CRWN 2.42 BROADCASTING 254.000DAKTRONICS DAKT 9.89 ELECTRONIC EQUIPMENT 406.000DIME COMMUNITY BANC DCOM 12.77 THRIFTS&MORTGAGE FIN 441.000EMERGENT BIOSOLUTION EBS 18.92 BIOTECHNOLOGY 587.000ENSTAR GROUP ESGR 72.29 REINSURANCE 1000.000

EPIQ SYSTEMS EPIQ 12.39 APPLICATION SOFTWARE 454.000ESCO TECHNOLOGIES ESE 33.96 HEAVY ELECT EQUIPMNT 898.000FERRO FOE 11.86 CHEMS-SPECIALTY 1022.000FIRST BUSEY BUSE 4.55 REGIONAL BANKS 302.000FIRST FIN'L INDIANA THFF 29.88 REGIONAL BANKS 392.000

FIRST MERCHANTS FRME 8.18 REGIONAL BANKS 209.000FURMANITE FRM 4.59 CONSTRU & ENGINEER 187.000GLIMCHER REALTY TR GRT 6.32 RETAIL REITS 434.000GLOBALSTAR GSAT 1.65 WIRELSS TELECOM SVC 472.000GT SOLAR INTL SOLR 8.78 ELECTRICAL COMPONENT 1317.000

HACKETT GROUP (THE) HCKT 4.11 IT CONSULTING & SVC 172.000JAKKS PACIFIC JAKK 15.54 LEISURE PRODUCTS 434.000LACLEDE GROUP HLDG LG 34.40 GAS UTILITIES 766.000LEXINGTON REALTY TR LXP 7.18 OFFICE REITS 960.000MARSH & MCLENNAN MMC 24.58 INSURANCE-BROKERS 13304.000

MARTEK BIOSCIENCES MATK 21.95 BIOTECHNOLOGY 731.000MEDICINES CO MDCO 11.89 PHARMACEUTICALS 634.000METROPCS COMM PCS 9.53 WIRELSS TELECOM SVC 3366.000MORGANS HOTEL GROUP MHGC 7.00 HOTEL/RESORT/CRUISE 211.000OSIRIS THERAPEUTICS OSIR 6.94 BIOTECHNOLOGY 228.000

PIEDMONT NATURAL GAS PNY 28.08 GAS UTILITIES 2014.000POWERWAVE TECH PWAV 1.91 COMMUNICATIONS EQUIP 254.000REGENCY CENTERS REG 39.34 RETAIL REITS 3218.000S.Y. BANCORP SYBT 24.81 REGIONAL BANKS 340.000SEQUENOM INC SQNM 6.20 LIFE SCIENCE TOOLS 465.000

TEEKAY TANKERS TNK 11.95 OIL & GAS-STORAGE 325.000TITAN INT'L TWI 11.68 MACHINERY CONST/FARM 413.000UNITED FIRE & CASLTY UFCS 21.83 INSURANCE-PROP/CAS 576.000WARREN RESOURCES WRES 3.44 OIL & GAS-EXPL/PROD 244.000WINTHROP REALTY TR FUR 13.88 DIVERSIFIED REITS 295.000

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS


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Group 2 is composed of Conventional Buys stocks at or just below well-defined intermediate topstoying with the prospects of breakout-type moves above said tops. Stocks that look/act like this:


That look/act like


TECHNICAL ANALYSIS


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And like this:


Group 2 (BUYs)


ACE ACE 55.24 INSURANCE-PROP/CAS 18591.000ALEXANDER & BALDWIN ALEX 35.43 MARINE 1457.000ALKERMES ALKS 14.24 BIOTECHNOLOGY 1354.000AMER CAMPUS COMM ACC 30.96 RESIDENTIAL REITS 2066.000AMER SAFETY INSR HLD ASI 16.34 INSURANCE-PROP/CAS 168.000

AMTRUST FINANCIAL AFSI 14.23 INSURANCE-PROP/CAS 846.000ANDERSONS ANDE 37.51 FOOD DISTRIBUTORS 690.000ATMOS ENERGY ATO 29.14 GAS UTILITIES 2714.000AVISTA AVA 21.21 MULTI-UTILITIES 1164.000BANCORP RHODE ISLAND BARI 29.50 REGIONAL BANKS 138.000

BEMIS BMS 30.72 PAPER PACKAGING 3350.000BRISTOL-MYERS SQUIBB BMY 26.58 PHARMACEUTICALS 45709.000BROWN & BROWN BRO 19.84 INSURANCE-BROKERS 2820.000CAI INTERNATIONAL CAP 14.86 TRUCKING 266.000CARDTRONICS CATM 14.67 CONSUMER FINANCE 616.000

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS


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CATO CATO 24.98 RETAIL-APPAREL 739.000CEVA CEVA 12.77 SEMICONDUCTORS 271.000CLOROX CLX 66.15 HOUSEHOLD PRODUCTS 9317.000DISCOVERY COMM A DISCA 40.18 BROADCASTING 11423.000DTS DTSI 37.65 ELECTRONIC COMPONENT 655.000

ECOLAB ECL 49.41 CHEMS-SPECIALTY 11531.000EPLUS PLUS 18.81 APPLICATION SOFTWARE 152.000FMC FMC 65.26 CHEMS-DIVERSE 4744.000GENESEE & WYOMING GWR 42.63 RAILROADS 1745.000GEO GROUP (THE) GEO 22.88 SECURITY & ALARM SER 1481.000

HEINZ (H.J.) HNZ 46.42 PACKAGED FOODS/MEATS 14680.000HUMANA HUM 51.08 HC-MANAGED CARE 8694.000II-VI IIVI 35.87 ELECTRICAL COMPONENT 1104.000ILLUMINA ILMN 44.61 LIFE SCIENCE TOOLS 5544.000INTEGRYS ENERGY GRP TEG 50.21 MULTI-UTILITIES 3867.000

INTERFACE IFSIA 14.00 SERVICES-OFFICE/SUPP 888.000INTERNET BRANDS INET 10.88 INTRNET SOFTWR & SVC 504.000JONES LANG LASALLE JLL 81.05 REAL ESTATE SERVICES 3407.000KBR KBR 24.43 CONSTRU & ENGINEER 3923.000KIMBERLY-CLARK KMB 66.18 HOUSEHOLD PRODUCTS 27397.000

KRAFT FOODS KFT 30.58 PACKAGED FOODS/MEATS 53316.000LORILLARD LO 80.70 TOBACCO 12335.000MEAD JOHNSON NUTRITI MJN 55.14 PACKAGED FOODS/MEATS 11277.000MENTOR GRAPHICS MENT 9.84 APPLICATION SOFTWARE 1051.000MGE ENERGY MGEE 37.67 ELECTRIC UTILITIES 871.000

NEW JERSEY RESOURCES NJR 38.21 GAS UTILITIES 1578.000NICOR GAS 44.34 GAS UTILITIES 2007.000NV ENERGY NVE 13.21 ELECTRIC UTILITIES 3104.000SAUL CENTERS BFS 43.71 RETAIL REITS 781.000SCANA SCG 40.56 MULTI-UTILITIES 5111.000

SOVRAN SELF STORAGE SSS 39.29 SPECIALIZED REITS 1084.000TALEO TLEO 27.49 APPLICATION SOFTWARE 1066.000TERREMARK WORLDWIDE TMRK 8.93 INTRNET SOFTWR & SVC 587.000TRACTOR SUPPLY TSCO 36.31 SPECIALTY STORES 2639.000UDR UDR 21.90 RESIDENTIAL REITS 3552.000

UNDER ARMOUR UA 38.35 APPAREL & ACCESSORY 1944.000UNIFI UFI 4.44 APPAREL & ACCESSORY 267.000UNISOURCE ENERGY UNS 33.40 ELECTRIC UTILITIES 1205.000VARIAN MEDICAL SYS VAR 56.18 HC-EQUIPMENT 6940.000VORNADO REALTY TRUST VNO 87.41 DIVERSIFIED REITS 15901.000

WATSON PHARM WPI 44.61 PHARMACEUTICALS 5557.000WORLD ACCEPTANCE WRLD 43.90 CONSUMER FINANCE 692.000YUM! BRANDS YUM 44.35 RESTAURANTS 20731.000ZIX ZIXI 2.76 INTRNET SOFTWR & SVC 177.000

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS


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Group 3 is composed of SELLs (of all types) with the majority of the names being stocks in the throes ofBullish-to-Bearish Reversals (stocks judged to have taken on rollover casts) that look/act like this:

Source: Oppenheimer Asset Mgmt and Thomson Reuters That look/act like this:


TECHNICAL ANALYSIS


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And like this:


Group 3 (SELLs)


AECOM TECHNOLOGY ACM 23.28 CONSTRU & ENGINEER 2670.000AMER GREETINGS AM 20.81 HOUSEWARES & SPECS 823.000AMERICAN EXPRESS AXP 41.80 CONSUMER FINANCE 50213.000AMERISOURCEBERGEN ABC 28.08 HC-DISTRIBUTORS 7933.000ANSYS ANSS 40.66 APPLICATION SOFTWARE 3680.000

APAC CUSTOMER SVCS APAC 5.18 DIVERSIFIED SUPP SER 273.000APOLLO INVESTMENT AINV 10.29 ASSET MANAGEMENT 1995.000ARTHROCARE ARTC 27.30 HC-EQUIPMENT 737.000AUXILIUM PHARMA AUXL 27.48 PHARMACEUTICALS 1309.000AVERY DENNISON AVY 34.89 SERVICES-OFFICE/SUPP 3853.000

BANK MUTUAL BKMU 5.25 THRIFTS&MORTGAGE FIN 239.000BANK OF HAWAII BOH 46.78 REGIONAL BANKS 2247.000BARNES & NOBLE BKS 16.36 SPECIALTY STORES 942.000BELDEN BDC 24.52 ELECTRICAL COMPONENT 1146.000BIG LOTS BIG 33.15 GENERAL MERCHANDISE 2665.000

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS


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BLACKBAUD BLKB 21.67 APPLICATION SOFTWARE 971.000BLUE NILE NILE 43.06 RETAIL-INTERNET 625.000CAL DIVE INT'L DVR 4.65 OIL & GAS-EQUIP/SVC 438.000CAPITAL ONE FIN'L COF 40.69 CONSUMER FINANCE 18576.000CARNIVAL CCL 34.67 HOTEL/RESORT/CRUISE 21441.000

CAVIUM NETWORKS CAVM 25.27 SEMICONDUCTORS 1130.000CERNER CERN 77.48 HEALTH CARE TECH 6369.000CITY NAT'L CYN 51.81 REGIONAL BANKS 2690.000COHEN & STEERS CNS 20.86 ASSET MANAGEMENT 889.000COLUMBIA BANKING COLB 18.93 REGIONAL BANKS 744.000

COMERICA CMA 36.93 DIVERSIFIED BANKS 6512.000CSG SYSTEMS INT'L CSGS 19.59 SERVICES-DATA PROC 667.000DIAMOND FOODS DMND 40.47 PACKAGED FOODS/MEATS 883.000DIGI INT'L DGII 7.89 COMMUNICATIONS EQUIP 197.000DOLLAR FINANCIAL DLLR 19.99 CONSUMER FINANCE 487.000

DSW DSW 24.19 RETAIL-APPAREL 1068.000ELECTRO SCIENTIFIC ESIO 11.27 ELECTRONIC EQUIPMENT 311.000EMCOR GROUP EME 24.46 CONSTRU & ENGINEER 1622.000ENERGEN EGN 45.08 GAS UTILITIES 3240.000ENTEGRIS ENTG 4.25 SEMICONDUCTOR EQUIP 561.000

EVERCORE PARTNERS EVR 28.67 INV BANK & BROKERAGE 482.000EVOLUTION PETROLEUM EPM 5.05 OIL & GAS-EXPL/PROD 137.000EXPRESS SCRIPTS ESRX 44.08 HC-SERVICES 24160.000EZCORP EZPW 19.33 CONSUMER FINANCE 950.000FULLER (H.B.) FUL 20.61 CHEMS-SPECIALTY 1008.000

GENTEX GNTX 18.67 AUTO PARTS & EQUIP 2604.000GLOBAL CROSSING GLBC 13.63 INTEG TELECOM SVC 824.000GOLDMAN SACHS GROUP GS 147.29 INV BANK & BROKERAGE 75823.000GSI COMMERCE GSIC 23.74 INTRNET SOFTWR & SVC 1575.000HERCULES TECHNOLOY HTGC 9.49 ASSET MANAGEMENT 344.000

HIBBETT SPORTS HIBB 24.42 SPECIALTY STORES 705.000HNI HNI 26.65 SERVICES-OFFICE/SUPP 1205.000HOSPIRA HSP 54.30 HC-EQUIPMENT 9008.000HUGHES COMMUNICATION HUGH 24.75 COMMUNICATIONS EQUIP 541.000INSITUFORM TECH INSU 22.21 CONSTRU & ENGINEER 871.000

INT'L PAPER IP 22.39 PAPER PRODUCTS 9775.000INTUITIVE SURGICAL ISRG 281.18 HC-EQUIPMENT 11013.000LAM RESEARCH LRCX 37.93 SEMICONDUCTOR EQUIP 4799.000LAMAR ADVERTISING LAMR 30.01 ADVERTISING 2769.000LEGG MASON LM 27.93 ASSET MANAGEMENT 4319.000

LINCOLN NAT'L LNC 26.09 INSURANCE-LIFE/HLTH 7892.000MAXIMUS MMS 56.46 IT CONSULTING & SVC 986.000MCKESSON MCK 59.95 HC-DISTRIBUTORS 16270.000MEADWESTVACO MWV 23.34 PAPER PRODUCTS 3988.000MEDQUIST MEDQ 7.71 HEALTH CARE TECH 290.000

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS


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MSC INDUSTRL DIRECT MSM 49.03 TRADE COS & DISTR 3102.000NETLOGIC MICROSYS NETL 24.97 SEMICONDUCTORS 1586.000NEWFIELD EXPLORATION NFX 51.16 OIL & GAS-EXPL/PROD 6825.000NU SKIN ENTERPRISES NUS 27.00 PERSONAL PRODUCTS 1694.000ORTHOFIX INT'L N.V. OFIX 28.55 HC-EQUIPMENT 504.000

OSHKOSH OSK 26.75 MACHINERY CONST/FARM 2401.000PLANTRONICS PLT 28.87 COMMUNICATIONS EQUIP 1411.000POLO RALPH LAUREN RL 81.09 APPAREL & ACCESSORY 7962.000PRIDE INT'L PDE 26.40 OIL & GAS-DRILLING 4636.000PRINCIPAL FIN'L GP PFG 25.56 INSURANCE-LIFE/HLTH 8172.000

PSS WORLD MEDICAL PSSI 19.11 HC-DISTRIBUTORS 1092.000RADIOSHACK RSH 19.52 RETAIL-COMP/ELECTRN 2447.000RENT-A-CENTER RCII 21.99 RETAIL-COMP/ELECTRN 1447.000ROSETTA RESOURCES ROSE 21.02 OIL & GAS-EXPL/PROD 1108.000ROYAL CARIBBEAN CRSE RCL 28.27 HOTEL/RESORT/CRUISE 6082.000

SAKS SKS 8.11 DEPARTMENT STORES 1305.000SCIENTIFIC GAMES SGMS 10.68 CASINOS & GAMING 1005.000SILICON LABORATORIES SLAB 39.91 SEMICONDUCTORS 1836.000SMITHFIELD FOODS SFD 16.72 PACKAGED FOODS/MEATS 2773.000SONIC SONC 7.89 RESTAURANTS 483.000

ST JUDE MEDICAL STJ 35.92 HC-EQUIPMENT 11738.000STARBUCKS SBUX 25.07 RESTAURANTS 18680.000SVB FINANCIAL GROUP SIVB 40.70 REGIONAL BANKS 1699.000T. ROWE PRICE GRP TROW 48.09 ASSET MANAGEMENT 12482.000TEMPLE-INLAND TIN 19.18 PAPER PACKAGING 2063.000

UNITED STATIONERS USTR 50.05 SERVICES-OFFICE/SUPP 1211.000UNIVERSAL ELECTRONCS UEIC 20.33 CONSUMER ELECTRONICS 278.000WHOLE FOODS MARKET WFMI 36.66 RETAIL-FOOD 6285.000XYRATEX XRTX 13.94 COMPU STORAGE/PERIPH 408.000YAHOO YHOO 13.62 INTRNET SOFTWR & SVC 18865.000

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS


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Other Disclosures

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS


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TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

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Oppenheimer Technical Sept 2010