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Opportunities in Africa
• Overall average student mobility has remained steady at >2%
• Grew through increases in enrolment, not in mobility rates
• Many of those conditions are changing , and increasing competition
• Africa is a region where there is huge potential –
Opportunities in Africa
Measured by:• Demographic trends• Lack of domestic public capacity to fulfil
demand • Economic Patterns
SSA lags behind in tertiary enrolment
1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 20090
10
20
30
40
50
60
18.120.0
22.524.0
25.9 27.1
EAP ECA LAC MNA SAS SSA WLD
Source: UNESCO Institute for Statistics in EdStats, July 2011Note: SAS 2009 is 2008 data.
Gro
ss E
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(ISCE
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Shortfall in Nigerian capacity…Current regional shortfall of 9 million?
Demographic Trends
• By 2020 – 4 countries will account for over 50% of the world’s 18 22 population: India, China, US and Indonesia‐
• Further 25% will come from Pakistan, Nigeria, Brazil, Bangladesh, Ethiopia, Philippines, Mexico, Egypt and Vietnam
• By end of century half of 18-24 year olds in Sub-Saharan Africa
• Significant decline for China (over 20m), Russia, Germany and South Korea
Africa will be the fastest growing region over the next 40 years. All the Growth will come from Sub-Saharan Africa
Key sources of tertiary age students in 2020
Change and decline in key markets
Additionally…
• Many countries have rapid economic growth: latest figures 13 of top 30 in the region.
• World Bank (and others) stress the importance of tertiary education for future development
• Growing m/c – with a willingness to fund tertiary education privately
It all leads to the need for international collaboration:
• To meet demand, to grow and develop, need large expansion of tertiary opportunities
• Constrained choices• Increased opportunities across a range of
areas:– Increased recruitment– TNE– Research– Capacity building
The benefits of in-country delivery
• Income generation• Deepening internationalisation • As a feeder – part of recruitment strategy:
– Increase size of potential market – way to increase undergraduate enrolments
– Academic planning– Better prepare the students
Finally:
• BIS, BC priority markets for recruitment/TNE include only Botswana and Mauritius in the ‘average opportunities’ category, and Nigeria in the below average opportunities’ category
• In fact, Nuffic note, many of major destinations have very similar target markets – going to be pretty crowded!
However…
But little attention to Africa – aside from Nigeria (forecast 8.3% PG growth to 2024 – BC Oct 2014)• Lack of existing TNE• Regulatory regimes and government policies• Economic factors• Social Factors
Why hasn’t there been more TNE?
• Cultural heritage – Francophone, Anglophone, Lusaphone
• Instability• Low income• Difficulties of ‘doing business’• Regulatory regimes• Fears over academic quality and • Difficulties of finding partners
And 7 of the top 20 in Africa?
Details:
• Total 2010/11 = 102,140 increase 20% previous year.
• decline in distance learning down to 13355 from 14515 the previous year.
• Dominance of OB/ACCA particularly strong:• of 503,985 the Oxford Brookes partnership
accounts for 239,895 (47.7%).• In SSA: of 102,140 - 82,600 are with the Oxford
Brookes Partnership – a staggering 81%.
Country of activity
TNE 10/11(ex OxB)
TNE09/10
TNE08/09 % Diff 08-10 2011 int students
1, Nigeria 22,425
(4,5150 16,930 15,670 43% 38,851
2, Ghana15755
(1,895) 13640 13420 17% 7,845
3, Kenya 10,980(1,740) 9,060 8,750 25% 13,286
4, Mauritius 8,775
(1,570) 6,630 6,440 36% 7,631
5, Egypt 8,720
(8,405) 7,455 6,660 31% 11,627
6. Zambia 7,355
(1060) 6,555 6,400 15% 4,951
7. Uganda 6,880(810) 5,765 5,605 23% 3,364
8.South Africa 4,640
(3035) 3,930 2,870 62% 6,166
9. Zimbabwe 4,545(290) 3,215 3,115 46% 19,658
10. Ethiopia 4,380(810) 3,005 3,030 45% 5,093
11. Botswana 3,270
(1405) 3,065 1,800 82% 8,562
12. Malawi 3,145(410) 2,620 2,610 20% 2,053
TNE in Africa
• HESA statistics indicate traditional forms relatively undeveloped:– Few IBCs– Few franchise or validations – notable exceptions
in Ghana, Kenya, Botswana and Nigeria– Most examples are DL/on-line with or without
tuition support – Uni of London, Heriot-Watt– Dominated by non-degree awarding bodies: ACCA
(80), ABE (160), NCC (60), NCUK
Finding Partners
• Match aims and values:• Public sector – research, training, capacity-
building etc – but depending on policy environment little incentive for franchise etc.
• But, for feeder colleges – good private schools used to teaching that level
• Sizeable and developing private sector college and university system – many thirsty for partnerships of various types
Regulatory Environment
• Patience, resilience, willingness to engage and develop relationships, willingness to work with local strategic priorities
• Not a significant problem for foundation level programmes or programmes that don’t lead to a degree (ABE, NCC, NCUK)
• One of explanations of on-line/tuition support model
Academic Quality
• Key concern – fear of degree mills. • Clearly issue: recent eg of University of Wales
indicates what can go wrong. • Always a potential for franchise/validation
programmes• Easiest method to guarantee the fundamental:
comparability of standards is to adopt the London Uni, ABE, Heriot-Watt approach – curriculum, assessments and marking by the awarding body.
But, recent examples show it is possible:
• Coventry University – demonstrates huge numbers possible for right programmes in right institution and pricing
• Sunderland in Kenya• Kaplan International College in Lagos• Right partners, long-term view from outset,
investment in quality and partner development
Case Study: KICL
• CNAU – delivers first year of programme with guaranteed progression – range of top quality partners
• Invested in premises• Worked closely with authorities• Academics with international qualifications• Quality regime based on module leader in NEU
responsible (in collaboration) for curriculum and assessment
• 180 students – many from Amnesty programme and academically mixed
• Many operational/academic culture challenges – need for adaptation to local requirements
• Created an environment where students developed remarkably quickly
• 160 were able to complete the programme – 89% - and 100% visa success rate
• Chose a wide range of majors…not 70% business. • Tracking their progress through CNAU feedback has been
extremely positive
Source: Standard Bank
