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Study Guide
AForceMorePowerfulFilmspresents
ProducedandDirectedby STEVEYORK ExecutiveProducer PETERACKERMAN Editedby JOSEPHWIEDENMAYER ManagingProducer MIRIAMZIMMERMAN OriginalPhotography ALEXANDREKVATASHIDZE PETERPEARCE AssociateProducers SOMMERMATHIS NATALIYAMAZUR
ProducedbyYORKZIMMERMANInc.www.OrangeRevolutionMovie.com
Credits
StudyGuideproducedbyYorkZimmermanInc.www.yorkzim.cominassociationwith
theInternationalCenteronNonviolentConflictwww.nonviolent‐conflict.org
Writers:SteveYork,HardyMerrimanMiriamZimmerman&CynthiaBoaz
Layout&Design:BillJohnson
©2010YorkZimmermanInc.
DVDsforhomeviewingareavailablefrom
OrangeRevolutionMovie.comandAForceMorePowerful.org
AlsosoldonAmazon.com
DVDsforeducationalusemustbepurchasedfrom
TheCinemaGuild115West30thStreet,Suite800NewYork,NY10001Phone:(800)723‐5522Fax:(212)685‐4717email:[email protected]://www.cinemaguild.com
AnElectionProvidestheSpark......................... 2APlannedSpontaneousRevolution................. 4MajorCharacters.............................................. 6OtherPlayers....................................................7UkraineThenandNow.....................................8UkraineHistoricalTimeline...............................9NottheFirstTime(OrtheLast).......................10Epilogue...........................................................11AdditionalResources.......................................12QuestionsforFurtherDiscussion.................... 14SuggestedGroupExercises..............................16
Table of Contents
Beforeasinglevotewascast, Ukraine's2004presidentialelectionhadgrabbedaworldwideaudience.TelevisionandprintmediareportedeverydramatictwistbeginninginSeptember,whenViktorYushchenko,areform‐mindedpresidentialcandidate,wasmysteriouslypoisonedandflowntoAustriaforemergency
treatment.Yushchenkosurvivedbutbefore‐and‐afterpicturesofthecandidate'soncehandsomeface,nowseverelyscarred,ledthenewsaroundtheworld.ThedramacontinuedinNovemberwhenthesecondroundofvotingwasmarredbyblatantelectionfraud.MillionsofoutragedcitizenssurgedintothestreetsofKyiv,Ukraine'scapital,andotherUkrainiancities,inamassiveprotestthatparalyzedthecountryforweeks.ItwasthegreatestupheavalinEasternEuropeanpoliticsinnearlytwodecades‐‐themostspectacularofthepost‐communistrebellionsinfavorofdemocracywhichhadalreadyspreadthroughSlovakia,SerbiaandGeorgia.
NamedforViktorYushchenko'scampaigncolor,theOrangeRevolutionof2004wastheculminationofacrisisbegunthreeyearsearlier.In2001, massiveprotestshadbrieflyconvulsedthecountrywhentheUkraineWithoutKuchma(UWK)movementdemandedtheresignationofthedeeplyunpopularpresident,LeonidKuchma.Kuchma'sunresponsiveandcorruptleadershiphadalreadydrivenhispopularityintothesingledigitsbyDecember2000whenrecordingsmadebyKuchma'sbodyguardwerepublicizedbyamemberofparliament.Kuchma'svoiceisheardrecommendingtheabductionofGeorgiyGongadze,aninvestigativejournalistwhohadaccusedKuchmaofcorruption.Theso‐calledcassettescandalsparkedthecreationofUWK.ThemovementwasunprecedentedinmodernUkraine,supportedbygroupsacrossthepoliticalspectrum.
Gongadze hadbeenmissingsinceSeptember2000.HisheadlessbodywasdiscoverednearKyivtwomonthslater.Hearingthetaperecordings,whichnotonlytiedKuchmatoGongadze'smurder,butrevealedKuchmatobeatthecenterofacriminalregime,thepopulationtooktothestreets.UWKdeclareditselftobeastrictlynonviolentmovement,butwasunabletocontrolitsradicalmembers,whoattackedriotpoliceinMarch2001atarallyinKyiv.Whenpoliceresponded,dozensofprotesterswereinjured.MiddleclasssupportersofUWKdesertedthemovementovernight,fearfuloffurtherviolentincidents.
PresidentLeonidKuchma,2003
GeorgiyGongadze
An Election Provides the Spark
Ineligibletoserveathirdterm,Kuchmaanointedthesittingprimeminister,ViktorYanukovych,tosucceed
him.AlthoughYanukovychlackedcharisma,he'dbeenafaithfulservantofthecountry'swealthybusinessinterests,andwasexpectedtomaintainorevenstrengthenUkraine'stiestoRussia.WiththeentiremachineryofthegovernmentsupportingtheYanukovychcandidacy(attaxpayerexpense),Kuchmawasconfidenthismancouldwin.ButtheKuchma/Yanukovychforcesunderestimatedtheopposition.Formonths,everystumpspeechremindedvotersofKuchma'sfailures.ViktorYushchenkospokeoutrepeatedlyagainstcorruption,callingKuchma'sgovernmenta"criminalregime."EvenwhenopinionpollspointedtoadecisiveYushchenkovictory,theOrangecoalitionkeptupthepressure.TheyassumedKuchma'spartywoulddoanything‐‐includingvotefraud‐‐tomaintainpower,sotheyworkedwithcivicgroupstoorganizevotereducationcampaignsandavastelectionmonitoringsystem.TheOrangeforceshopedtopreventvoterfraud,butasabackup,theypreparedtodocument,expose,publicizeandprotestthefraudifitoccurred.
IntheinitialroundofvotingonOctober31,Yushchenkofinishedfirstofthetwenty‐fivecandidates,butsincenocandidatewonover50%,asecondroundofvotingwassetforNovember21.Inthisround,thefraudwasblatantandpervasive.Yushchenko'sOrangecoalitionwasready;popularoutragegavethemthemobilizingtooltheyneeded.At2a.m.onNovember22,OrangeleadersbroadcastanappealtoallcitizenstogatherintheheartofKyivatIndependenceSquare(MaidanNezalezhnosti),knownsimplyasMaidan.
Ukrainians remaineddeeplydissatisfiedwiththeregime,andthe
UWKmovementhadprovidedexperienceforanewgenerationofactivistswhowouldplaykeyrolesin2004. YuriyLutsenko managedstreetactionsinboth2001and2004.HerecalledthatthebloodshedofMarch2001had"repulsedallofUkraine‐itwastheendofthemovement."In2004,heknewthatnonviolentdisciplinewouldbeabsolutelynecessaryforanysuccessfulpopularuprising.
BynoononNovember22,2004,nearly100,000angrydemonstratorshadconvergedonMaidanandinothercitiestoprotestthepreviousday’selectionfraud.Asthecrowdsmushroomed,eventheorganizersweresurprised.Suddenly,Maidanbecameasymboloftherevolution,resistance,andopposition.Theword“maidan”itselftookonseveralmeanings;itwasnotjustaplace,butamovement,andamediumofcommunications.ThiswasexactlywhattheYushchenkocampaignandOrangecoalitionhadintended.Theyhadcorrectlyanticipatedastolenelection‐‐andpreparedforit‐‐withMaidanasthefocalpointoftheirmassaction.
Knowingtheymighthavetooccupythecityformanydaysorweeks, organizersdistributedfood,tents,andblankets.Theyblockedallimportantgovernmentbuildingsandeffectivelyshutdownday‐to‐daygovernmentfunctions.Alltheiractionswereplannedtopreventbloodshed.Knowingtheirsupporterswouldcomeface‐to‐facewithpoliceandsecurityforces,Yushchenkoandhisseniorstaffhadestablishedbackchannelcontactswithcommandersofsecurityforcestokeeptheminformedofoppositionplanningandtoreassurethemtheprotestwouldremainnonviolent.
Duringthefirstdays, asprotestersandsecurityforceslookedeachotherintheeye,somethingremarkablehappened.Asoneprotestleaderobserved,"Theygotacquaintedandtheygotusedtoeachother.Withinafewdays,theybegansharingfoodandteawitheachother."Meanwhile,atnight,Maidanleadersmetwithofficersfromthearmedservicestoshareinformation.
MembersofParliamentconstructedthestage atMaidan withtheirownhands.Becausetheyenjoyedparliamentaryimmunity,thepolicewerenotallowedtoarrestthem.ThestagewastheplatformfromwhichYushchenkoandtheOrangeleaderscouldspeaktothepeople,explaintheirplans,andgiveinstructions.Twenty‐fourhourtelevisioncoverageofthestagekeptallUkrainiansinformedabouteventsoftherevolution.
A Planned Spontaneous Revolution
ProtestersinMaidan,Nov.22,2004
Buildingthetentcity
EveningperformanceonMaidanstage
AwayfromMaidan, alessvisiblebattlewasbeingfought.LawyersforYushchenkoandhispoliticalpartyfiledoverahundredcourtcasescitingelectionirregularities.Threehundredlawyersworkedwithoutpaytopreparethelegalcases.ThekeyactionwasatUkraine’sSupremeCourtwherethepressureofmassactionandtheruleoflawconverged.Intheend,recallsMykolaKaterynchuk,thelawyerwhosupervisedthecases,"Weprovedthattheresultsofthesecondroundwerefalsified,andrevealedthemethodsandparticipantsinthesefalsifications.Thejudgesrealizedthatthepeopleinthestreetsmighttrytoseizepoweratanymoment,andthismayhavepromptedthemtomaketheirdecisionquickly–injustaweek.BecausetheSupremeCourtperformeditshistoricrole,aviolentscenariowasavoided.Ittransformedtherevolutionfromacrisisofillegitimacyintooneoflegality.Itlegitimizedatransitionfromfraudtotheestablishmentofdemocraticelections.Itwasarulingthatfavoredpoliticians,favoredvoters,andfavoredthedemocraticfutureofUkraine.Andthisonecasewashedawayallthedirtymoneyandthepowerofthoseoligarchs."
AmemberofthecampaignstaffwhohelpedorganizetheeventsonMaidanexplained,"Iimaginedthiscampaignasawar.Icouldn’tthinkofitanyotherway,andwecouldn’torganizeitanyotherway.Wewouldhavetoworkinastrictdiscipline,otherwiseitwouldbeimpossibletowin."
Theregimeassumedthatafterafewdaysthefrigidtemperatureswouldforceprotesterstogohome.Butasoneoftheorganizersobserved,"Thesepeoplewerereallypreparedtodoanything,togiveeverything,toberidofthiscriminalgovernment."Nightafterfreezingnight,theystayed.
Tomanagethemassofpeopleinthetentcities, inMaidan,andaroundtheParliamentandPresidentialadministrationbuildings,strictruleswereestablished.MembersofPora!,theyouthresistanceorganization,weretheenforcers.Alcoholicbeveragesanddrugswereprohibitedinthetentcamps.Trashwashauledawaydaily. Poravolunteerscontrolledthecheckpoints,patrolledtheencampments,andkeptorder.
FinalargumentsattheSupremeCourt,Dec.3,2004
AllofUkraine’sseniorpoliticianswereborn,educated,andbegantheircareerswhenUkrainewasaSovietrepublic.
ViktorYushchenko.Born1954,innortheasternUkraine.By1991,whenUkrainebecameindependent,Yushchenkohadearneddegreesineconomicsandfinance,andestablishedhimselfasarespectedeconomist,employedbylocal,regional,andnationalbanks.In1994,hebecamethefirstgovernorofUkraine’scentralbank,whereheearnedhighpraiseforstabilizingthecurrencyandreducinginflation.PresidentKuchmaappointedhimprimeministerin1999,buthisaggressiveanti‐corruptionprogramsmadehimunpopularandhewaspushedoutoftheprimeminister’sofficein2001.Withinayear,hebecameleaderofOurUkraine,areform‐orientedpoliticalcoalition.OurUkrainewonmoreparliamentaryseatsthananypartyorcoalitionin2002.Hisrunforpresidentin2004energizedthemillionswhosawitasachancetobreak,oratleastloosen,theoligarchs’gripontheircountry.Yushchenkohasbeenmarriedsince1998toKaterynaChumachenko,thedaughterofUkrainianimmigrantstotheU.S.
LeonidKuchma.Born1938,innorthcentralUkraine.Educatedasanengineer,KuchmawassuccessfulinSovietindustry,andrecognizedforhisdesignanddevelopmentofrocketandspacetechnology.Heenteredpoliticsin1990,firstasamemberofparliament,thenbrieflyasprimeminister.Hewaselectedpresidentin1994promisingtoreverseaseriouseconomicdeclinethroughclosercooperationwithRussia.Targetedbyaccusationsofcriminalityandcorruptionthroughouthispresidency,hemaintainedclosetiestothewealthyoligarchswhocontrolledmuchofUkraine’seconomy.Ashispopularityplummeted,helashedoutatthemedia,especiallytelevision.TaperecordingsallegedlymadeinhisofficewerewidelyacceptedasevidenceofhisinvolvementinthemurderofjournalistGeorgiyGongadzeandothercrimes.Followingthefraudulentelectionof2004,hewaspressuredtodeclareastateofemergencyandinaugurateViktorYanukovych,butherefusedtodoso.
ViktorYanukovych.Born1950,intheDonetskprovinceineasternUkraine.Aftereightyearsasanelectricianatalocalbuscompany,heearnedanengineeringdegreebycorrespondencecourse.Laterheheldmanagementpositionsinthetransportsector.Hewasvice‐governor,governor,andheadoftheprovincecouncilofDonetskbetween1996and2001.Hispoliticalcareerhasbeenmarredbychargesofcriminalityandcorruption.Hewasconvictedofrobberyin1967andofrapein1970,crimesforwhichheservedatotaloffiveyearsinprison.PresidentLeonidKuchmanamedhimprimeministerin2002,andsupportedhisrunforpresidentin2004.ComingfromaRussian‐speakingregion,YanukovychhasfavoredcloserelationswithRussia.DuringthecampaignheadvocatedmakingRussiananofficiallanguageofUkraine.
YuliaTymoshenko.Born1960,insouth‐centralUkraine.Duringasuccessfulandcontroversialbusinesscareer,shejoinedtheranksofUkraine’soligarchs,doingbusinesswithmanyofthecountry’smostfamous(andinfamous)tycoons.AspresidentofUnitedEnergySystemsofUkraine,themainimporterofRussiannaturalgasatthattime,shewasaccusedofsellinglargevolumesofstolengasandofevadingtaxes;hernicknamebecame“thegasprincess.”Shewaselectedtoparliamentin1996,andservedtwoyearsasDeputyPrimeMinisterforfuelandenergy.Asaleaderinthe2001UkraineWithoutKuchmamovement,Tymoshenkowasknownforherpassionate,sometimesinflammatory,rhetoric.Thatsameyear,sheformedtheYuliaTymoshenkobloc,apoliticalcoalitionwhichjoinedtheOrangeforcesworkingforYushchenko’spresidentialcampaignin2004.ShebecameUkraine’sfirstfemaleprimeministerinearly2005.ManyUkrainiansacceptherasareformer,ignoringorforgivingherproblematichistory.Shespeaksfortheruleoflaw,againstcorruption,andforabalanceofrelationswithRussiaandtheEU.In2009,sheannouncedherintentiontorunforpresidentofUkraine.
Major Characters
Pora!(‘It’sTime!’),appearedinlate2002,asayouthorganizationmodeledlooselyonthestudentgroups
whichplayedvisiblerolesinthedefeatofMilosevicinSerbia(Otpor,1998‐2000)andShevardnadzeinGeorgia(Kmara,2003).Porawasreallytwoseparateorganizations,knowninformallyasBlackPoraandYellowPoraforthecolorsoftheirbanners,stickers,andleaflets.Despitesomerivalry,theyworkedtogetherespeciallyinlate2004.PorawassmallerthanOtpor,notastightlyorganized,andcouldonlyestimateitsmembership–atabout10,000.Manywerestudents,andmanyhadbeenactiveintheUkraineWithoutKuchmamovementof2001.Beginningin2003,Poraactivistsconsultedwith,andreceivedtrainingfrom,veteransoftheOtporandKmaragroups.Poraactivistswerecalledterroristsandcriminalsbytheirgovernment,andtheyweresometimesphysicallyattacked.TheywerethefirsttoerecttentsinMaidan,onthenightofthefraudulentrunoffelection,andtheyplayedakeyroleinorganizingandmaintainingorderforthetentcitiesandcrowdsonMaidanthroughouttherevolution.
ElectronicMediainUkraine TemnykyisthenamegiventosecretemailmessagessentdailybyUkraine’spresidential
administrationtotelevisionstations,tellingthemwhattoreport,howtoreportit,andwhattoignore.Thissystemofmediacensorshipwasinauguratedin2002byRussianpoliticalconsultantsemployedbythen‐PresidentKuchma.Duringthe2004electioncampaign,TVnewsprogramswereorderedtoportraythepresident,thepro‐presidentialparties,andViktorYanukovychinapositivelight,togiveminimalcoveragetotheYushchenkocampaign,andtodiscredithimwheneverpossible.IncoveringYushchenko’sfirstcampaignrally,onetemnykordered:“...donotshowwideshotsoftherallyandshotsofthecrowd;showonlygroupsofdrunkpeoplewithsociallyinappropriate,deviantbehavior.”
Ukraine’sTVstationsUT1isthestatecontrolledbroadcaster.1+1andInterarenetworksownedbyViktorMedvedchuk,anoligarchwhoheadedPresidentKuchma’spresidentialadministrationin2002‐2004.ThreeotherTVchannelsareownedbyKuchma’sson‐in‐law,ViktorPinchuk:STB,ICTV,andNovyKanal.Duringthe2004presidentialcampaign,allthesestationsshowedastrongbiastowardsYanukovych.Onlytwostationsproducedbalancednews.ThefirstwasChannel5,asmallstationwithaweakersignal,coveringonlyabout15%ofthecountry,withnocoverageatallineasternUkraine.Channel5isownedbyPetroPoroshenko,anoligarchfriendlytoYushchenko.ERA‐TVprovidedsimilarcoverage,butwasonlyontheairforportionsoftheday,andnotintheevening.Aftertheelectoralfraudwasrevealed,journalistsandthenewsstaffatUT1and1+1threatenedastriketoprotestcensorship.Theydeclaredtomanagement,"Eitheryouletusbroadcastwhat’shappeninginthecountry,orweallwalkout."Managementgavein,andat9pmtheycarriedthefirstuncensorednewsreports.
Other Players
Russia’sRoleintheElectionRussianleaderssawthe2004electionasaturningpoint:WouldUkrainetakeapro‐Russianorapro‐WesterndirectionafterKuchma?Ayearbeforetheelection,theydecidedtosupportthecandidatepickedbyKuchma.ExpensiveRussianpoliticaladvisorsandspin‐doctorsmanagedtheYanukovychcampaign,whichalsoreceivedcashcontributionsfromtheKremlin.Thetotalsumisnotknown.Fiftymillionisthelowestestimate;theamountmostwidelycitedis$300million.RussianpoliticalconsultantsusedstrategiescommoninRussianelectionsincludingputtingmassivepressuretovoteforYanukovychonstateemployees,pensioners,andotherswhoselivelihooddependsonthestate.Theydevelopedapro‐YanukovychadvertisingblitzwhichranprominentlyinRussia,aimedatthemillioneligibleUkrainianvoterslivingthere.RussianPresidentVladimirPutinpersonallyvisitedUkrainetoendorseYanukovych.Later,PutincongratulatedYanukovychonhisvictorythreetimesbeforethevoteshadevenbeencounted.Altogether,theRussianrolecameoffasheavy‐handed,atransparentattempttore‐imposeRussianinfluenceinUkraine.SomeanalystsbelievetheRussianeffortsactuallyhurtYanukovych.RussianleaderswereshockedandsurprisedbythemassiveprotestsinUkraine.Inresponse,theyhavegivenahighprioritytopreventingsimilar“colorrevolutions”inRussiaorothercountries.
Ukraine Then and Now
UkraineisthesecondlargestcountryinEurope,withanareaslightlysmallerthanTexas.UkrainewasbyfarthemostimportanteconomicunitoftheSovietUnion,afterRussia.Ukraine’sfarmersprovidedmorethanaquarterofSovietagriculturaloutput.EasternUkrainewastheSovietUnion’sindustrialheartland,miningcoalandproducingsteelandmachinery.
UnderSovietrule,Ukraineoftensuffered.EightmillionUkrainiansdiedduringtwofamines(1921‐3and1932‐3)whenSovietauthoritiesseizedUkrainiangrainandtransportedittoRussia.GermanandSovietarmieskilledatleastsevenmillionmoreinWorldWarII.
WhentheSovietUniondisintegratedin1991,Ukrainebecameindependent.Withinayear,formerSovietofficialsandex‐managersofstate‐ownedenterprisesemergedas“oligarchs,”purchasingformerstatecompaniessuchasheavyindustry,coalmines,andmediaoutlets,atbargainprices.Theseovernighttycoons,whoownedhugebusinessesandconglomerates,enjoyedclosetieswiththepresidentandcontrolledlargefactionsinparliament.Theirpoliticalconnectionsallowedthemtowinsuchbenefitsasregionalmonopolies,taxexemptions,subsidies,andtradepreferences.
Despiteoccasionalanti‐corruptionprograms,theoligarchsremainkeypowercentersinUkraine.Asprimeminister(2000‐01),ViktorYushchenkowithdrewmanyofthetaxexemptionsandprivilegesenjoyedbytheoligarchs,whileturningUkraine'sdeficittoasurplusandgrowingtheeconomyforthefirsttimesinceindependence.In2002,PresidentKuchmareplacedhiscabinetwithministersdrawnentirelyfromtheoligarchicfactionsinparliament.Inthepositionofprimeminister,ViktorYushchenkowasout,andViktorYanukovychwasin.
Asthepresidentialelectionapproachedin2004,theoligarchsweredominant–butnotunified.Amongthemorethantwentypresidentialcandidates,onlytwoweretruecontenders:Yushchenko,thereformer,andYanukovych,thecandidateoftheoligarchsandthestatusquo.Tobefair,Yushchenkoenjoyedthesupportofsomeoligarchstoo,butYanukovychhadauniqueadvantage.Hewasendorsedbytheincumbentpresidentandsupportedbytheentireadministrativebranchofgovernment.HewasalsosupportedbyRussia.
Land: Mostly fertile plains and plateaus Arable land 53.8% Agricultural products: Grain, sugar beets, sunflower seeds, vegetables, beef, milk Natural resources: Iron ore, coal, manganese, natural gas, oil, salt, sulfur, graphite, timber Industries: Coal, electric power, metals, machinery, transportation, chemicals Population: 46.5 million Urban population 68% Median age 39.5 Life expectancy 68 years Ethnicity: Ukrainian 77% Russian 17% Others 6% Population below poverty line 37.7% Religion: Orthodox denominations 91% Roman Catholic 2.2% Protestant 2.2% Jewish 0.6% Languages: Ukrainian 67% Russian 24% Other 9% Literacy 99.4% above age 15 GDP: $340 billion Agriculture 9.3%Industry 31.7%Services 58.9% Unemployment: 9% [2009 estimate, tripled from 2008] Inflation 22.3%
[These are the most recent figures available, most from 2008.]
During the 18th and 19th centuries, most of Ukraine was part of the Russian Empire.
1921 Ukraine joins the Soviet Union 1941-45 Ukraine occupied by Nazi Germany 1960s Covert opposition to Soviet rule grows 1986 Nuclear reactor at Chernobyl explodes 1991 Ukraine declares independence 1994 Leonid Kuchma becomes second president of Ukraine 1996 Democratic constitution adopted 1997 Ukraine signs Friendship Treaty with Russia 1999 Leonid Kuchma re-elected president Sept. 2000 Journalist Georgiy Gongadze murdered Dec. 2000 Ukraine Without Kuchma movement demands resignation of President Kuchma and investigation of Gongadze murder Mar. 2001 Violence erupts at protests organized by Ukraine Without Kuchma; the movement dissolves 2002 Viktor Yushchenko becomes leader of political coalition, Our Ukraine 2004
July 1 Presidential election campaign begins Sept. 5 Following dinner with director of Ukrainian Security Service, presidential candidate Viktor Yushchenko feels ill Sept. 10 Yushchenko seeks medical treatment in Austria. Rumors of poisoning begin to circulate Oct. 15-16 PORA youth movement offices raided by special police Oct. 20 Government freezes assets of pro-opposition TV Channel 5. Employees of Ch. 5 go on hunger strike Oct. 31 Presidential election - first round. Telephone records indicate fraud by Yanukovych Nov. 1 Central Election Commission [CEC] announces no candidate exceeded 50% and a runoff election will be necessary Nov. 21 Runoff election, marked by fraud and irregularities Nov. 22 Massive protests begin in Kyiv and other major cities International election observers (OSCE) declare election unfair. Russian President Putin congratulates Yanukovych on victory Nov. 24 Election results announced: Yanukovych 49%, Yushchenko 46%. Ukrainian opposition calls for general strike Nov. 25 Supreme Court prohibits publication of election results until Yushchenko's appeal of CEC vote count can be heard Nov. 26 Negotiations begin, mediated by EU, Russia, Poland Nov. 27 Parliament expresses "no-confidence" in CEC, orders Kuchma to disband CEC Nov. 28 [11pm] Ukraine's Interior Minister orders 10,000 armed troops to disperse protesters in Kyiv They begin driving toward Maidan, but Ukraine's Security Service successfully intervenes to stop them Nov. 29 Kuchma proposes a new election Yushchenko demands that Kuchma dismiss Yanukovych as prime minister. The Supreme Court begins hearing Yushchenko's case against the CEC Dec. 2 Kuchma flies to Moscow to consult Russian President Putin They reject a re-run of Nov. 21 election, favoring entirely new elections instead Dec. 3 Supreme Court hears final arguments, begins private deliberations. At 6 pm, the Court invalidates the Nov. 21 election results and orders a repeat election not later than Dec. 26 Dec. 5 Opposition demands electoral law reforms, appointment of new CEC members Dec. 6 Kuchma announces he will accept electoral reforms in exchange for constitutional amendments to limit the power of the president Dec. 8 Parliament passes constitutional changes and electoral reform Dec. 26 Second round of presidential election is repeated. Yushchenko receives 52% of votes; Yanukovych, 44% Jan. 23, 2005 Viktor Yushchenko is sworn in as president
Ukraine Historical Timeline
Otporlogo
TheOrangeRevolutionwasthethirdtimeinjustfouryearsthatanonviolentcivilresistancemovementdefeatedcorruptorauthoritarianregimesincentralEurope.Thefirstwasin2000whenSlobodanMilosevicwastoppledinSerbia.NextwasGeorgia’s“RoseRevolution”in2003whichremovedEduardShevardnadzefrompower.Inallthreecountries,thesparkwasafraudulentelectionfollowedbymassivecivilresistance.
Eachofthesestoriesfeaturedanunpopularleader,alargeandwell‐organizedopposition,andasystemtodetectandrapidlypublicizevotefraudthroughoutthecountry.Studentandyouthresistancegroupsalsoplayedacrucial,althoughnotidentical,role.Allthreeoppositionmovementswereinfluencedandinspiredbysuccessfulnonviolentstrugglesofthe1980s–theSolidaritytradeunionmovementinPoland,theVelvetRevolutioninCzechoslovakia,andthe“PeoplePower”movementwhichdefeatedPhilippinedictatorFerdinandMarcos.
Manypoliticalscientistsconsidertheseepisodestobe“democraticbreakthroughs,”whosecommongoalswerefreeandfairelections,responsiveandtransparentdemocraticinstitutions,adherencetotheruleoflaw,respectforhumanrights,afreemedia,andjudicialindependence.
InSerbia,oppositionpoliticalpartiessquabbledandfoughtamongthemselvesforatleastadecade,finallyunitingbehindasinglecandidatetorunagainstMilosevicin2000.Alongtheway,Serbianyouth,ledbyuniversitystudents,acquiredorganizationalandstrategicskillsoveraperiodofseveralyears,whichledthemtofoundOtpor!(theSerbianwordforresistance),amovementwhichestablishedbranchesinoverseventycitiesandtowns.Knownfortheirclenched‐fistsymbol,spraypaintedonwalls,andprintedont‐shirts,posters,andstickers,thegroup
mobilizednotjustyoungpeople,butthewholepopulation.Relyingonhumor,ridicule,androckmusic,Otpormembershelpedpeopleovercomefear,thekeytobuildingparticipation.Manyyoungpeoplewerearrested,whichmobilizedtheirpreviouslyapatheticparents.Otporwasalsoeffectiveinunderminingpoliceandsecurityforceloyaltytotheregime.ManyofitstechniqueswereadoptedbyyouthresistancegroupsinGeorgia,Ukraine,andothercountries,whereOtporactivistssometimesactedasadvisorsandtrainers.
Otpor’sstrategiesandtacticscouldn’tsimplybecopiedbyothermovements,butthemerefactthatMilosevic,amanwidelybelievedtocontrolallconventionalsourcesofpower,wasremovedbyacivilresistancemovementwithoutresortingtoviolence,inspiredandempoweredothers.InGeorgia,theKmara(“Enough”)movementwasmodeledonOtpor;inUkraine,themovementwascalledPora!(“It’stime!”).Bylate2004,thephrase“colorrevolution”hadenteredthepopularvocabulary,andpotentialforawell‐organizednonviolentmovementtosucceedagainstanentrenchedauthoritarianhadbeenwidelyaccepted.LebanonexperiencedtheCedarRevolution;Kyrgyzstan,theTulipRevolution;Iran,theGreenRevolution.WhilenoneofthesebroughttheconclusiveorsatisfactorybreakthroughachievedinSerbia,GeorgiaorUkraine,nonviolentmovementsareattheforefrontofbringingchangeintheworldtoday.
Not the First (Or the Last!)
OtporOtporactivistsinSerbia
KmaraactivistsinGeorgia
10
Maidan.Spring,2005
Inamatterofmonths,theOrangeRevolutionseemedtohavetransformedUkraineirreversibly.Electoralreformbroughtfreeandfairelections;alivelyandindependentmediaemerged,andconstitutionalreformbroughtahealthierbalancebetweenexecutiveandlegislativepower.Theseachievementsweresoonovershadowedbypersonalpowerstruggles,andthecontinuingdominationofparliamentbytheoligarchs.Bylate2005,theOrangecoalitionhadsplintered.YuliaTymoshenko,whohadbeenaYushchenkoallyduringtherevolution,becamehisrival.HedismissedherasprimeministerinSeptember2005;shewassucceededbyViktorYanukovychfor16months.TheOrangecampreunitedtowinparliamentaryelectionsin2007,whichbroughtTymoshenkobackasprimeminister.
DisappointedbyYushchenko’sweakleadership,Ukrainianshavebecomecynicalaboutpolitics.Adevastatingeconomicdownturnin2008contributedtothedespair.Attheendofhispresidentialterminlate2009,Yushchenko’spopularityslippedbelow5%,leavingTymoshenkoandYanukovychastheonlyviablecandidatestosucceedhimin2010.ItcouldbesaidthatunrealisticexpectationsguaranteedtheOrangeRevolutionwoulddisappointitsfollowers,butweakleadership,apolarizedcountry,persistentcorruption,andRussianeffortstoreassertregionalsupremacyhaveplayedtheirparts.
Ukraine’sdemocratictransitionremainsincomplete,butsincetheOrangeRevolution,noelectionshavebeenstolen,andnojournalistshavebeenkilledbythestate.Whilethegoalsofthosewhoforgedtherevolutionandenduredthecoldandsnowhaveyettobereflectedinpolicy,thepoliticalsystemandtherulesbywhichpoliticaldecisionsaremadehavebeentransformed‐‐toonethat,despiteitsflaws,ismoredemocraticandrespectfuloftheruleoflawthanitwasunderKuchma’srule.
Epilogue: After the Revolution
11
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Karatnycky,Adrian.“Ukraine’sOrangeRevolution.”ForeignAffairs,vol84,no.2,March/April2005.
Koshiw,J.V.Beheaded:TheKillingofaJournalist.Reading(UK):ArtemiaPress,2003.
Subtelny,Orest.Ukraine:AHistory.Toronto:UniversityofTorontoPress,2000.
Wilson,Andrew.Ukraine’sOrangeRevolution.NewHaven:YaleUniversityPress,2005.
NonviolentRevolutioninSerbiaandGeorgiaCollin,Matthew.TheTimeoftheRebels:YouthResistanceMovementsand21stCenturyRevolutions.London:Serpent’sTail/ProfileBooks,2007.
Doder,DuskoandLouiseBranson.Milosevic:PortraitofaTyrant.NewYork:TheFreePress,1999.
Glenny,Misha.TheBalkans:Nationalism,War,andtheGreatPowers,1804‐1999.NewYork:VikingPenguin,2000.
Gordy,EricD.TheCultureofPowerinSerbia:NationalismandtheDestructionofAlternatives.UniversityPark:ThePennsylvaniaStateUniversityPress,1999.
Judah,Tim.TheSerbs:History,MythandtheDestructionofYugoslavia.NewHaven:YaleUniversityPress,1997.
Karumidze,ZurabandJamesWetsch,eds.Enough!:TheRoseRevolutionintheRepublicofGeorgia2003.Hauppauge,NY:NovaSciencePublishers,2005.
General‐CivilResistanceandSocialMovementsAckerman,PeterandChristopherKruegler.StrategicNonviolentConflict:TheDynamicsofPeoplePowerintheTwentiethCentury.Westport,CT:Praeger,1994.
Ackerman,PeterandJackDuVall.AForceMorePowerful:ACenturyofNonviolentConflict.NewYork:PalgraveMacmillan,2000.
Arendt,Hannah.CrisesoftheRepublic.NewYork:HarcourtBraceJovanovich,1972.
Helvey,Robert.OnStrategicNonviolentConflict:ThinkingAbouttheFundamentals. Boston:AlbertEinsteinInstitution,2004.Thisbookmaybedownloadedatwww.aeinstein.org. King,Mary.MahatmaGandhiandMartinLutherKing,Jr.ThePowerofNonviolentAction.Paris:UNESCOPublishing,1999.
Meyer,DavidS.andSidneyTarrow,eds.TheSocialMovementSociety:ContentiousPoliticsforaNewCentury.Lanham,MD:Rowman&Littlefield,1998.
Nagler,MichaelN.IsThereNoOtherWay?TheSearchforaNonviolentFuture.Berkeley:BerkeleyHillsBooks,2001.
Roberts,AdamandTimothyGartonAsh,eds.CivilResistanceandPowerPolitics.Oxford(UK):OxfordUniversityPress,2009.
Schock,Kurt.UnarmedInsurrections:PeoplePowerMovementsinNondemocracies.Minneapolis:UniversityofMinnesotaPress,2004.
Sharp,Gene.FromDictatorshiptoDemocracy:AConceptualFrameworkforLiberation.Boston:AlbertEinsteinInstitution,2002.Downloadableinseverallanguagesatwww.aeinstein.org.Sharp,Gene.WagingNonviolentStruggle:20thCenturyPracticeand21stCenturyPotential.Boston:PorterSargentPublishers,2005.
Tarrow,Sidney.PowerinMovement:SocialMovements,CollectiveActionandPolitics.NewYork:CambridgeUniversityPress,1994.
Zunes,Stephen,LesterR.KurtzandSarahBethAsher,eds.NonviolentSocialMovements:AGeographicalPerspectiveMalden,MA:BlackwellPublishers,1999.
Additional Resources
ResourcesontheInternet
Articles,Papers&StudyGuides
Beehner,Lionel.“OneYearAferUkraine’sOrangeRevolution.”CouncilonForeignRelations,22Nov2005.www.cfr.org http://www.cfr.org/publication/9259/Corwin,JulieA.“FledglingYouthGroupsWorryPost‐SovietAuthorities.”Eurasia.net11Apr2005.http://www.eurasianet.org/departments/civilsociety/articles/pp041105.shtmlCorwin,JulieA.“Rock’sRevolutionaryInfluence,”RadioFreeEuropeRadioLiberty12Jun2005.http://www.rferl.org/content/Article/1059220.htmlMeier,Patrick."DigitalResistanceandtheOrangeRevolution,"blogentryatwww.irevolution.wordpress.com18Feb2009.http://irevolution.wordpress.com/2009/02/18/digital-resistance-and-the-orange-revolution
Simpson,JohnandMarcusTanner.“SerbActivistsHelpedInspireUkraineProtests,”InstituteforWarandPeaceReporting.http://www.iwpr.net/index.php?apc_state=hen&s=o&o=p=bcr&l=EN&s=f&o=155269UnitedStatesInstituteofPeace.“StudyGuideSeriesonPeaceandConflict.”Washington,D.C.2009.Forty‐pagestudyguidewhichcanbedownloadedathttp://www.usip.org/files/sg10.pdf.
Weir,Fred.“TheStudentsWhoShookUkraine‐‐Peacefully.”ChristianScienceMonitor9Dec2004.http://www.csmonitor.com/2004/1209/p01s04-woeu.html
Websites
TheAForceMorePowerful.orgsitecontainsextensiveinformationonallthefilmsandgamesonnonviolentmovementsproducedbyYorkZimmermanInc,includingdescriptions,studyguides,lessonplans,andsuggestedfurtherreadings.Italsofeaturesexcerptsfromthebook,AForceMorePowerful:ACenturyofNonviolentConflict.www.aForceMorePowerful.org
TheAlbertEinsteinInstitutionisanonprofitorganizationadvancingthestudyanduseofstrategicnonviolentactioninconflictsthroughouttheworld.Thewebsiteincludesdownloadablematerialinfortylanguages.www.aeinstein.org
TheCenterforAppliedNonviolentActionandStrategies(CANVAS)websitecontainsarticlesaboutnonviolentmovementsandstrategiesofthepastdecade.www.canvasopedia.org
TheInternationalCenteronNonviolentConflictisanindependent,non‐profit,educationalfoundationthatdevelopsandencouragesthestudyanduseofcivilian‐based,nonmilitarystrategiestoestablishanddefendhumanrights,democracyandjusticeworldwide.Theirwebsitecontainsnewsaboutnonviolentconflictsaroundtheworld,aswellaslinkstoarticles,podcastsandotherresourcesofrelevance.www.nonviolent-conflict.org
KyivPostisanEnglish‐languagedailypublishedinKyiv.Archivesdatingbackto2004areavailableforsearchatwww.kyivpost.com.
Maidan.orgdescribesitselfas“aninternethubforCitizensActionNetworkinUkraine.”ItwasfoundedinDecember2000tocircumventgovernmentsuppressionofinformationonoppositionactivities,andtoprotestmisinformationonthedisappearance
ofthemurderedjournalist,GeorgiyGongadze.TheEnglishlanguageversioncanbefoundathttp://eng.maidanua.org.
MirrorWeekly(ZerkaloNedeli)isamongUkraine’smostinfluentialprintweeklies,specializinginpoliticalanalysis,interviews,andopinion,inRussianandUkrainian.Foundedin1996,theindependent,non‐partisanpublicationisfundedbyWestern(non‐governmental)sources.TheEnglishlanguagearchivescanbeaccessedatwww.mw.ua.
1. Earlyintheprotests,YuliaTymoshenko,whosepartysupportedYushchenko'scandidacyaspartoftheOrangecoalition,wanteddemonstratorstostormgovernmentbuildingsinanattempttoseizepower.Wasthatagoodidea?Whyorwhynot?Whatdoyouthinkwouldhavehappenedifthedemonstratorshaddonethis?
2. Peoplerefertotheeventsaroundthe2004presidentialelectioninUkraineasthe“OrangeRevolution."Whydoyou
thinktheycallita“revolution”insteadofjustan“election”?Talkaboutyourdefinitionoftheterm“revolution."
3. WhatweresomekeymomentsofdangerorrisktothedemonstratorsintheOrangeRevolution?Howdidthedemonstratorsandleadershipbehaveinthesemoments?Doyouagreewiththechoicestheymade?
4. TheOrangemovementmadeastrategicchoicetotrytomobilizethousandsofpeopleintheMaidan(Independence
Square)inKiev,foraslongasnecessary.Intheenditwasseventeendays.Theirstrategyofmasscivilresistanceworked.However,inothercasesofnonviolentresistance,holdingmassdemonstrationshasnotalwaysbeeneffective.Whatdoyouthinktherisksandbenefitsareofattemptingtomobilizesomanypeoplepublicly?
5. Whatdoyouthinkpropelledthousandsofpeopleoutofthecomfortoftheirhomesandeverydaylives,tostayinthe
coldfordaysandriskpossibleviolencebythegovernment?DidpeopleoccupyMaidansimplytosupportYushchenko,orwerethereotherreasons?HowmightaUkrainianonMaidaninDecemberof2004explainhisorherreasonsforbeingthere?
6. TheOrangeRevolutionwasgalvanizedbyfeelingsofinjusticeandoppression,aswellashopeforabetterfuture.People
tookrisksandsometimesdefiedthelaw.Aretherecircumstancesunderwhichyouwouldconsiderparticipatinginactsofcivildisobedienceinresponsetoinjusticeorstaterepression?
7. Doyouthinkyourgovernmentshouldplayaroleinsupportingandencouragingnonviolentcitizenmovementsstruggling
forhumanrightsordemocracy,suchastheOrangeRevolution?Ifso,whatshouldthatrolebe?Whatactionscouldyourgovernmenttakethatwouldbeconstructive?
8. Thereweretwoactsofviolencediscussedinthefilm:themurderofjournalistGeorgiGongadze,andthepoisoningof
VictorYushchenko.Bothactsappeartohavebeencarriedoutbytheregime.Doyouthinktheseactsofviolencebenefittedtheregime,ordidtheybackfireagainsttheregime?How?
9. DidyounoticeanysimilaritiesbetweentheOrangeRevolutionandotherpoliticalorsocialmovementsofthepast?Can
youthinkofanysimilarmovementsgoingontoday?Inwhatpartsoftheworldorsituationsdoyouthinkcivilresistance,ofthekindseeninUkraine,couldbeappliedeffectivelytoday?
10. DuringtheOrangeRevolution,demonstratorsstayedonMaidanforseventeendays.Whyandhowweretheyableto
sustaintheiractionsonMaidan?Whatpreparationswentintothis?DoyouthinkitwasimportantforthesupporterstoremainonMaidanforthatlong?Whatmessagediditsend?Whatdoyouthinkwouldhavehappenediftheyhadleftafteronlyfourdays?
11. TherewasnoviolentrepressionagainstdemonstratorsduringtheOrangeRevolution.Why?Whatfactorsdoyouthink
theKuchmaregimeconsideredwhenthinkingabouthowtostoptheprotest?Whydoyouthinkmembersofthemilitaryandpolicemayhavebeenunwillingtouseviolentforce?
Questions for Further Discussion Suggestedactivity:Breakintosmallgroups,eachofwhichselects(orisassigned)oneortwoquestionstoanalyzeindepth,andthenreturntolargergroupformatwherethesmallgroupsleadthediscussionontheirquestions.
12. HowmuchcreditforthefinaloutcomeoftheOrangeRevolutionshouldbeextendedtotheSupremeCourt?WhatfactorsdoyouthinkinfluencedtheCourt’sdecision?Whatrole,ifany,didtheMaidandemonstrationsplay?
13. ThroughouttheelectionandtheOrangeRevolution,bothYushchenkoandYanukovychsupportersappealedto
Ukrainians’senseofpatriotismandnationalidentity.Why?Howdideachsidedefinepatriotismandnationalidentity?HowwouldyoudescribeKuchma’sviewofwhatitmeanstobeUkrainian?HowwouldyoudescribeYushchenko’sview?WasthereanyspecialsignificanceinchoosingMaidanasthefocalpointoftheOrangemovement?
14. Nonviolentresistance,suchaswhattookplaceduringtheOrangeRevolution,hassometimesbeenreferredtoaspassive
resistance.DoyouthinkpassiveresistanceisanappropriatetermtodescribetheactionsofthedemonstratorsduringtheOrangeRevolution?Whyorwhynot?
15. Yushchenkoconstantlyremindedpeopletobedisciplinedandnonviolent.Heeventoldhissupportersthathis
“presidencyisnotworthevenoneperson’slife.”WhydoyouthinkYushchenkoandmanyotherleadersoftheOrangeRevolutionfeltstronglyaboutavoidingviolentconfrontationsbetweendemonstratorsandthepolice?Whateffectdoyouthinkthishadontheregimeanditssupporters,aswellasontheOrangemovementitself?
16. Technology—theinternet,mobilephones,andotherformsofcommunication—washelpfulinorganizingpeopleduring
theOrangeRevolution.Inthefuture,doyouthinkthatnewformsofcommunicationsandinformationtechnologieswillbemorelikelytofavorcivilresistancemovementsorrepressiveregimes?
17. WhydidsomanydifferentkindsofpeoplefromdifferentregionsofUkraine‐‐menandwomen,youngandold,
students,laborers,bureaucrats,smallbusinessowners,andothers‐‐participateintheOrangeRevolution?Whatkindsofmessagesdoyouthinkappealedtoandunitedthesepeople?Wouldthemovementhavebeenaseffectiveifitwerelessdiverse,forexampleifdrewitssupportmainlyfromonegroup,suchasstudents,oronegeographicregionsuchasKiev?
18. Whatdoesthisstoryteachusaboutelectionsanddemocracy?Istheactofholdingelectionssufficienttomakea
countryademocracy?Ifso,why?Ifnot,whatothercomponentsarenecessaryforacountrytobeademocracy?
19. WhydidtheOrangemovementappealtoyoungpeople?Howdiditgettheminterestedandmotivated?WhatroledoyouthinkyoungpeopleandyouthcultureplayedintheOrangeRevolution?
20. MusicwasaconsistentpresenceinMaidanandthroughoutthecountryduringtheOrangeRevolution.Whatroledidit
playandhowcanmusicbeusedinpromotingpoliticalaction?
21. WhateffortsdidtheOrangemovementmaketoshifttheloyaltiesofmembersofthepoliceandmilitaryinsupportofthemovement?Inwhatwaysdiditappealtotheirsenseofpatriotism,professionalismandhumanity?
22. Whateffectdoyouthinktheuseofcolor(orange)andtheslogan"Tak!”(“Yes!”)had?Whatdidyounoticeaboutthe
waythesesymbolswereused?Whydoyouthinktheywereselectedtosymbolizethemovement?
23. OppositionmanagersprivatelypredictedthattheregimewouldresorttovotefraudtosecureaYanukovychvictoryinthesecondround,andthatthemarginofvictoryinthecrookedvotecountwouldbe3%.Intheend,thisiswhathappened.Iftheoppositionhadgonepublicwithitsprediction,howmightthingshavechanged?Whateffectdidthemovement'sinsightsintotheiropponenthaveonthemovementinternally?
24. Inmanycountries,electionresultsaremanipulated,butonlyinsomecountriesdowehearaboutmovementslikethe
Orangecoalition.Whydoyouthinkthisis?Doyouthinkpeoplearechoosingnottomobilizeinothercountries,ordoyouthinkthemediaarefailingtoreportit?Whydoyouthinktherewasnotasimilarresponsetothe2000PresidentialelectionresultsintheUnitedStates?
Suggested Group Exercises
1. ForceFieldAnalysis:ThisexercisehelpsparticipantstounderstandthedifferentforcesinconflictduringtheOrangeRevolution.Aforcefieldanalysisidentifiesalloftheforcesforandagainstchangeinasituation,andassessesthestrengthofeach.Thiscanbedrawnonapieceofpaper(seeexample),withallforcesforchangeononesideandallforcesagainstchangeontheother.Themagnitudeoftheforcecanbeshownbydrawingalargearrow(strong)orsmallarrow(weak)and/orassigninganumber(1‐10)toeacharrow.Insmallgroups,participantsdrawtwoforcefieldanalyses.Thefirstfocusesonthesituationoutlinedinthebeginningofthefilm,beforetherevolutionwhentheelectioncampaignhasjuststarted.Thesecondfocusesonthesituationattheendofthefilm,whentherevolutionwassuccessful.Participantsthendiscusshowthesetwoforcefieldanalysesaredifferent,andwhysomeforcesstrengthened,weakened,orshifteddirectionduringthecourseoftherevolution.
2. Oneofthewaysthatmovementsareabletogainsupportersisbylisteningtoordinarypeopletalkaboutwhatisimportantintheirlives,andfocusingontheparticularwordsandphrasestheyuse.Pickalocal,regional,ornationalpoliticalissue,andaskfivepeoplehowtheyfeelaboutthatissue.Listencloselytopeople’sopinionsandtohowtheyexpressthemselvesonthesubject.Then,createaslogan,symbol,andshortstatementabouthowyouwouldaddressthisissueifyouwereattemptingtoorganizeinyourcommunity.
3. ChooseascenariofromPeoplePower:TheGameofCivilResistancethatsharessomeofthespecificobjectivesseenin
OrangeRevolution.Strategizeandapplytacticsdemonstratedinthefilmtothescenario.Whathaveyoulearnedabouthowtoplan,create,anddisseminateamessage,andcarryoutatactic?
4. Askstudentstomakealistofareasofconflictintheworldtoday.Theycanfindthisinformationinthenewspaper,
newsmagazines,oronlinenewsreports.Dividethestudentsintogroupsandaskeachgrouptochooseoneoftheconflictsandanalyzeitintermsofits"readiness"fornonviolentaction.Thestudentsshouldidentifythefollowing:
Thepartiesintheconflict Theconflictinggroupswhichmighttaketheleadinapplyingnonviolenttactics Oneclearobjectiveofthenonviolentconflict Suggestedmethodsofnonviolentactiontheywoulduse
Status Quo
No Change Change
Change Issue Driving Forces Restraining Forces
Strong
Strong
Moderate
Moderate
Weak
Weak
Notes
www.OrangeRevolutionMovie.com