Oregon Global Warming Commission: 2013 Report to the Legislature

Oregon’s Roadmap to 2020 http://www.keeporegoncool.org/content/roadmap-2020

Progress Toward Oregon’s Greenhouse Gas Reduction Goals

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1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

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Historical Greenhouse Gas EmissionsGovernor's Advisory Group on Global Warming (2004) Business as Usual ForecastGreenhouse Gas Emissions from 2000 to Most Recent Data Available (2010)Current Business as Usual ForecastEnergy Efficiency (EE) and Conservation to Meet All New Load GrowthEE + Maintain Full Impact of Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS) to 2025EE + Maintain RPS + Boardman Power Plant Replaced with Natural Gas & Renewables (50/50) in 2021EE + Maintain RPS + Boardman Switch + Clean Fuels Program (LCFS) with 2015 Sunset Removed2020 and 2050 Goal Emissions Reduction Trajectory

2010 “Roadmap to 2020” Recommendations: Oregon’s Share

On track to meet State goals or Roadmap outcomes Partial but significant GHG reductions or progress toward outcomes Business and usual; insignificant or no reductions or progress Significant measurable slippage away from goals or outcomes

http://www.keeporegoncool.org/view/ogwc-reports

A B C

D

Transportation of Goods & People (no

light rail) 36.0%

Electricity Use (all sectors) 31.5%

Other Residential

& Commercial

Activities 12.1%

Industrial Processes &

Other Energy 11.8%

Livestock, Soil, & Crops

8.5%

Oregon Greenhouse Gas Emissions 2010 (with electricity broken out from sectors)

Cars = about ¼ of OR total GHG

Coal = about ¼ of OR total GHG

Cars and Coal

= 50% of Oregon GHG Emissions

Roadmap to 2020 / Transportation and Land Use Progress Report 2013

• Change the Way We Fund Transportation C+ • Develop New Funding Sources C • Expand Urban Transit B- • Create Complete Communities C+

• Move Freight the Low-Carbon Way B- • Embed Climate Change in Transportation Planning B+ • Expand Intercity Transportation Options/Choice C+ • Reduce Demand by Increasing Options B • Manage and Price Parking C • Support Electric Vehicles B

PNW Driving Trends/Outcomes [Sightline Institute 2012]

OR + WA Per Capita Gasoline 1950-2010 [in gallons]

OR + WA per capita VMT 1980-2010 [Thousands of miles]

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 1980 1990 2000 2010

8

Portland area residents drive less…

18.0

19.0

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22.0

23.0

24.0

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

US Average

Metro region

City of Portland

1990-2008 average vehicle miles traveled (VMT) per capita

Source: U.S. Federal Highway Administration, Highway Statistics, 1990-2008

Oregon Trends 1990 – 2010 Transportation GHG Emissions / VMT

1990 - 2010

-20% Per capita transportation GHG emissions since 1990

+8% Total OR transportation GHG emissions since 1990

-10% Per capita VMT since 1990

+19% Total OR VMT since 1990

2000 - 2010

-19% Per capita transportation GHG emissions since 2000

- 7% Total OR transportation GHG emissions since 2000

-7% Per capita VMT since 2000

-5% Total OR VMT since 2000

Governor’s Ten Year Energy Strategy _ T&LU

• Compact, multimodal mixed use communities

• Vehicle efficiency/fleet turnover

• “Intelligent Transportation Systems”

• Innovation in Transportation Finance

• Urban Growth Boundary; MOSAIC; ODOT/MPO GHG planning; GreenSTEP; urban neighborhood design

• “Clean Fuels Standard”; commercial fleet turnover financing; EV infrastructure

• ITS demo in metro area; TriMet traveler info app

• “Gas-Tax-to-VMT-Tax” demo;

add vehicle efficiency, congestion factors; increase non-roadway funding

Statewide Transportation Greenhouse Gas Reduction Strategy (STS)*

STS/GreenSTEP: Oregon can meet a “>75% x 1990” GHG level for light vehicles if . . .

a) near-term, double light vehicle gas mileage;

b) by 2050, 53% of light vehicle fleet is EV/ZEV; and electricity achieves State goals for GHG emissions

c) 50% gain in GHG emissions-efficiency-per-freight-ton/mile

d) TriMet expands service levels faster than population increases; grow other non-auto choices

e) Metro keep the UGB substantially as now drawn

*acknowledged by OR Transportation Commission 03/13

With A Little Help From the Feds

• Auto/truck “CAFE” efficiency standards – Goals: 35.5 mpg by 2016; 54.5 mpg by 2025 – On target (30.1 mpg – August, 2013)

• Over-the-Road Trucks, Rail, Air?

*equal to 54% total reduction from 1990 GHG levels; or 74% per capita reductions below 1990

*

Transportation GHG Reduction v. 2050 Goal

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1990 2050 CurrentTrends

2050 STS Vision 2050 Goal

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Ground Passenger & Commercial Service Freight Air Passenger

Cars and Coal

Energy Efficiency Is The Region’s Second Largest Resource

[in an average hydro year]

We’re Saving The Annual Firm Energy Output of Two Grand Coulee Dams

Oregon’s Power System 1965 vs 2010

Hydro 95%

Other 5%

Hydro 42% Gas 14%

Coal generation accounts for 34% of OR power supplies 82% of OR power-related CO2 emissions*

*and 25% of overall Oregon GHG emissions

NW Conservation and Power Planning Council Sixth Power Plan

Four Actions Dropped PNW Electric Utility Carbon Emissions 15% Below 1990 Levels by 2020

US Coal Fleet: Nameplate Capacity By Age

Edison Electric Institute 2010

PGE Boardman Coal Generator, Boardman, OR

With A Little More Help From the Feds . . .

• EPA power plant rulemaking – Clean Air Act (CAA) carbon rule for new power plants out

for public comment – EPA to adopt a carbon rule for existing power plants by

2016

Carbon-Equivalent MPG* - Electric Vehicles

If Wichita, KN (SWPP) – 74% coal/8% gas If Raleigh NC (SRVC) – 45% coal/9% gas If Seattle WA (WECC) – <3% coal/<1% gas

_________________________

PGE (post-Boardman) + 9% coal and +63% gas PacifiCorp +66% coal and +17% gas

= 35 mpg = 55 mpg >112 mpg

*Mpg equivalents per UCS

Takeaways

Oregon doing C+ work; needs close to straight A’s To meet Legislature’s 2020 goal, need to reduce another 19% from 2010 emissions levels

New Federal standards will help, but Oregon has to deliver its share – Especially . . . “cars and coal”