Western Interstate CommissionFor Higher Education

Oregon Higher Education Coordinating CommissionAugust 9, 2017

Oregon Higher Education in a Western Context: Data, Trends, and Strategies

What is WICHE?

The Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education - WICHE

An interstate compact formed 65 years ago

WICHE’s Role in the Region Promotes access and excellence in higher

education for all citizens of the West through: Regional collaboration Resource sharing Sound public policy Innovation

Changing Demographics in the West and OregonTHE GOAL:

High School Graduates in the WICHE Region, 1993-94 to 2012-13 (Actual); 2013-14 to 2031-32 (Projected)

Source: Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education, “Knocking at the College Door: Projections of High School Graduates, December 2016” http://www.wiche.edu/knocking.

350,000

450,000

550,000

650,000

750,000

850,000

950,000

1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017 2020 2023 2026 2029

PROJECTEDAL

ACTUAL

High School Graduates in the WICHE region by Race/Ethnicity, 2001-01 to 2012-13 (Actual); 2013-14 to 2031-32 (Projected)

Source: Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education, “Knocking at the College Door: Projections of High School Graduates, December 2016” http://www.wiche.edu/knocking.

American Indian/Alaska Native Asian/Pacific Islander Black Hispanic White Nonpublic

772,755

2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031

830,996789,092

666,730

Cumulative Change in West’s Public High School Graduates after 2012-13 by Race/Ethnicity

-50

-30

-10

10

30

50

70

2012-13 2018-19 2024-25 2030-31

Thou

sand

s

278K Hispanic86K Asian/Pac. Isl.14K Am. Ind./Alaska Native42K Black54K Private Schools356K White

+65K

-39K

-37K

-14K

+3K

-4K+2K

-8K

Source: Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education, “Knocking at the College Door: Projections of High School Graduates, December 2016” http://www.wiche.edu/knocking.

High School Graduates in Oregon, 1993-94 to 2012-13 (Actual); 2013-14 to 2031-32 (Projected)

Source: Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education, “Knocking at the College Door: Projections of High School Graduates, December 2016” http://www.wiche.edu/knocking.

20,000

22,000

24,000

26,000

28,000

30,000

32,000

34,000

36,000

38,000

40,000

1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017 2020 2023 2026 2029

ACTUALPROJECTED

High School Graduates in Oregon by Race/Ethnicity, 2001-01 to 2012-13 (Actual); 2013-14 to 2031-32 (Projected)

Source: Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education, “Knocking at the College Door: Projections of High School Graduates, December 2016” http://www.wiche.edu/knocking.

American Indian/Alaska Native Asian/Pacific Islander Black Hispanic White Nonpublic

2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031

32,45637,262 35,417

Cumulative Change in Oregon’s Public High School Graduates after 2012-13 by Race/Ethnicity

Source: Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education, “Knocking at the College Door: Projections of High School Graduates, December 2016” http://www.wiche.edu/knocking.

5,807 Hispanic1,815 Asian/Pac. Isl.498 Am. Ind./Alaska Native779 Black2,918 Private Schools25,463 White

-1,000

-500

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

2012-13 2015-16 2018-19 2021-22 2024-25 2027-28 2030-31

+3,341

+1,177 +1,689

+284-107

-217-250

Postsecondary Trends

THE GOAL:

Oregon Undergraduate Enrollment by Institution Type, 2010-2015 (With Percent of Total Enrollment)

Source: IPEDS Fall Enrollment Survey 2010-2015

52% 51% 50%49%

47% 46%

38% 38% 40% 41% 42% 43%

10% 10% 10% 10% 11% 11%

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Total Public, 2-year Total Public, 4-year or above Total Private not-for-profit, 4-year or above

Total Undergraduate Enrollment in Oregon Public Institutions of Higher Education by Race/Ethnicity, 2005 & 2015 (With Percent Change)

Source: IPEDS Fall Enrollment Survey 2005 & 2015.

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

White Hispanic Asian Black American Indianor Alaska Native

2005 2015

+161%

+11% +43% -16%

+3%

Graduation Rates by Institutional Type, 2015

National Center for Education Statistics (NCES), Integrated Postsecondary Education Data System (IPEDS). Graduation Rate Survey, 2015

29%

50%

75%71%

39%

58%

73%70%

32%

59%

76%69%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

Associate's Colleges Baccalaureate/Master's Institutions

Research/DoctoralUniversities

Private Four-YearInstitutions

Oregon WICHE US (no territories)

Oregon Postsecondary Graduation Rates by Institutional Type, 2002-2015

National Center for Education Statistics (NCES), Integrated Postsecondary Education Data System (IPEDS). Graduation Rate Survey, 2002-2015

48%

58%

32%

29%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

55%

60%

2002 2005 2008 2011 2014

Public, Four-Year

Public, Two-Year

Oregon Graduation Rates at Public, Four-Year Institutions, 2015

National Center for Education Statistics (NCES), Integrated Postsecondary Education Data System (IPEDS). Graduation Rate Survey, 2002-2015

34%

37%

49%

59%

69%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80%

American Indian/Alaska Native

Black

Hispanic

White

Asian

Oregon Graduation Rates at Public, Two-Year Institutions, 2015

National Center for Education Statistics (NCES), Integrated Postsecondary Education Data System (IPEDS). Graduation Rate Survey, 2002-2015

19%

19%

29%

30%

34%

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40%

Black

American Indian/Alaska Native

Hispanic

White

Asian

Levels of Education for Oregon Residents, Aged 25-64, 2015

Source: US Census, American Community Survey, PUMS One Year Survey, 2015

78,612

134,680

474,142

549,275

199,135

457,148

251,691

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

Less than9th Gade

(4%)

9th to 12thgrade, nodiploma

(6%)

High schoolof GED(22%)

Somecollege, no

degree(26%)

Associate'sdegree (9%)

Bachelor'sdegree(21%)

Graduate orprofessional

degree(12%)

Postsecondary Educational Attainment,Associate’s Degree and Above, Adults Aged 25-64 (2015)

Source: U.S. Census, American Community Survey, PUMS 1 Year Survey, 2015.

32%34%

37%37%

38%38%

41%41%

42%42%42%

44%45%

47%49%

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50%

NevadaNew Mexico

ArizonaIdaho

WyomingAlaska

CaliforniaMontana

South DakotaUtah

OregonHawaii

WashingtonNorth Dakota

Colorado

Postsecondary Educational Attainment,Associate’s Degree and Above, Adults Aged 25-64, 2005-2015

Source: U.S. Census, American Community Survey, PUMS 1 Year Survey, 2015.

37%

42%

39%

41%

35%

36%

37%

38%

39%

40%

41%

42%

43%

44%

45%

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

OREGON

WICHE

Postsecondary Educational Attainment, Associate’s Degree and Above, By Race/Ethnicity, Adults Aged 25-64 (2015)

Source: U.S. Census, American Community Survey, https://www.census.gov/hhes/socdemo/education/.

60%

45%

34%

26%22%

61%

49%

34%

21% 19%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Asian/PacificIslander

White Black AmericanIndian/Alaksa Native

Hispanic

Oregon WICHE

Postsecondary Funding and FinanceTHE GOAL:

Public FTE Enrollment, Educational Appropriation and Total Revenue per FTE, WICHE Region, Fiscal 2000-2016

Public FTE

Dol

lars

Per

FTE

Source: State Higher Education Executive Officers, “State Higher Education Finance, The FY 2016 Report,” http://sheeo.org/sites/default/files/SHEEO_SHEF_2016_Report.pdf

$8,7

54

$9,5

78

$8,2

11

$8,7

13

$8,8

92

$7,3

37

$6,3

94

$7,1

80

$8,1

15

$2,0

99

$2,2

17

$2,6

84

$3,2

69

$2,8

22

$3,2

60

$3,9

74 $4,3

71 $4,5

23

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

3,500,000

$000

$2,000

$4,000

$6,000

$8,000

$10,000

$12,000

$14,000

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

FTE

Enro

llmen

t

Educ

atio

n Re

venu

e

Educational Appropriations per FTE, Constant Dollars Net Tuition per FTE, Constant Dollars Net Public FTE Enrollment

Public FTE Enrollment, Educational Appropriation and Total Revenue per FTE, Oregon, Fiscal 2000-2016

Dol

lars

Per

FTE Public FTE

$7,6

26

$7,1

97

$5,9

91

$6,1

05

$6,4

96

$5,2

48

$4,2

14

$4,5

98

$5,9

45

$5,2

13

$4,6

49

$5,4

83

$5,6

82

$5,7

48

$5,2

63

$6,6

56 $8,0

70 $8,2

82

-

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

160,000

180,000

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

FTE

Enro

llmen

t

Educ

atio

n Re

venu

e

Educational Appropriations per FTE, Constant Dollars Net Tuition per FTE, Constant Dollars Net Public FTE Enrollment

Source: State Higher Education Executive Officers, “State Higher Education Finance, The FY 2016 Report,” http://sheeo.org/sites/default/files/SHEEO_SHEF_2016_Report.pdf

Tuition as a Percent of all Education Revenue, 1991-2016

Dol

lars

Per

FTE Public FTE

Source: State Higher Education Executive Officers, “State Higher Education Finance, The FY 2016 Report,” http://sheeo.org/sites/default/files/SHEEO_SHEF_2016_Report.pdf

41%

58%

30%

47%

19%

36%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015

WICHE

OREGON

U.S.

Resident Undergraduate Tuition and Fees at Four-Year Institutions, 2016-17

Source: WICHE Tuition and Fees, 2016, http://www.wiche.edu/pub/tf.

$5,055 $5,793

$6,097 $6,301 $6,445

$6,847 $7,118 $7,223

$8,504 $8,537

$8,754 $8,941 $9,114

$9,983 $10,891

$- $2,000 $4,000 $6,000 $8,000 $10,000 $12,000

WYOMINGMONTANA

NEW MEXICOUTAH

NEVADAIDAHO

NORTH DAKOTAALASKA

SOUTH DAKOTAWASHINGTON

CALIFORNIAHAWAII

OREGONCOLORADO

ARIZONA

WICHE Average Tuition & Fees, 2016-17: $8,211

Resident Undergraduate Tuition and Fees at Two-Year Institutions, 2016-17

Source: WICHE Tuition and Fees, 2016, http://www.wiche.edu/pub/tf.

$1,380$1,896

$2,567$2,910$2,942

$3,486$3,531$3,626

$3,849$4,219$4,249

$4,469$4,706$4,808

$6,613

$0 $1,000 $2,000 $3,000 $4,000 $5,000 $6,000 $7,000

CALIFORNIANEW MEXICO

ARIZONANEVADA

WYOMINGIDAHO

MONTANAUTAH

HAWAIICOLORADO

WASHINGTONNORTH DAKOTA

OREGONCOMM. NO. MARIANAS

SOUTH DAKOTA

Change in Resident Undergraduate Tuition and Fees at Four-Year Institutions, from 2006-2016

-4%

9%

13%

25%

30%

32%

34%

39%

49%

44%

49%

53%

67%

76%

89%

100%

Montana

North Dakota

Wyoming

Alaska

Oregon

Idaho

South Dakota

Utah

New Mexico

Washington

WICHE

Nevada

California

Colorado

Arizona

Hawaii

$- $2,000 $4,000 $6,000 $8,000 $10,000 $12,000

State average cost of tution and fees at public 4-year insitutions

2006-07 2016-17Percent Increase

Source: WICHE Tuition and Fees, 2016, http://www.wiche.edu/pub/tf.

Resident Undergraduate Tuition and Fees at Oregon Public Institutions as a Percent of the Median Household Income in Oregon

Source: WICHE Tuition and Fees, 2016, http://www.wiche.edu/pub/tf & U.S. Census Bureau, Table H-8

12%

14%

7% 8%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

18%

20%

2005 2008 2011 2014

Public, Four-Year

Public, Two-Year

Change in Student Debt from 2005-2015

Adapted from The Institute for College Access and Success, “Project on Student Debt,” http://www.ticas.org/posd/map-state-data-2015#.

125%not avail

117%125%133%137%138%142%143%150%151%153%153%154%171%182%

48%not avail72%57%55%69%60%58%46%67%62%54%56%46%50%47%

New MexicoNorth Dakota

IdahoArizona

CaliforniaSouth Dakota

WICHEWashington

NevadaMontana

OregonUtah

ColoradoWyoming

AlaskaHawaii

$10,000 $15,000 $20,000 $25,000 $30,000Average Loan Amount of College Graduates

2005 loan amount 2015 loan amountPercent Increasen Loan Amount 2005-2015 Percent of 2015

Grads with DebtPercent Change in Loan,

2005-2015

Workforce Trends

THE GOAL:

Current Attainment (Associate’s & Above) Versus Future Job Demands

Adapted from Georgetown Center on Education and the Workforce, “Help Wanted: Projections of Jobs and Education Requirements Through 2020,” https://cew.georgetown.edu/wp-content/uploads/StateProjections_6.1.15_agc_v2.pdf.

32%34%

42%42%

38%38%

41%37%37%

41%44%

42%45%

47%49%

30%29%

22%23%27%

28%26%

31%31%

28%26%28%25%

25%25%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80%

NevadaNew Mexico

UtahSouth Dakota

WyomingAlaska

CaliforniaArizona

IdahoMontana

HawaiiOregon

WashingtonNorth Dakota

Colorado

Current Attainment Levels (2015)Shortage of Employees with Necessary Attainment to meet Projected Job Demands (2020)WICHE 2015 Current Attainment: 41%WICHE 2020 Projected Shortage: 28%

Growth Rate of Jobs from 2010 to 2020: Nation vs. Oregon

Adapted from Georgetown Center on Education and the Workforce, “Recovery: Job Growth and Education Requirements through 2020,” https://cew.georgetown.edu/cew-reports/recovery-job-growth-and-education-requirements-through-2020/.

34%

28%26%

24%

19% 19%18% 17%

15%

10%

17%

26%

31%

19%

26% 26%

18%

24% 24%

12%

8%

17%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

HealthcareSupport

HealthcareProfessional

and Technical

SocialSciences

CommunityServices and

Arts

STEM Food andPersonalServices

Managerialand

ProfessionalOffice

Education Sales andOffice

Support

Blue Collar Total

Gro

wth

Rat

e fr

om 2

010

to 2

020

Oregon Nation

Oregon Workforce by Occupation, 2010 and 2020

Adapted from Georgetown Center on Education and the Workforce, “Recovery: Job Growth and Education Requirements through 2020,” https://cew.georgetown.edu/cew-reports/recovery-job-growth-and-education-requirements-through-2020/.

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

Sales andOffice Support

Blue Collar Food andPersonalServices

Managerial andProfessional

Office

Education CommunityServices and

Arts

STEM HealthcareProfessional

and Technical

HealthcareSupport

Social Sciences

2010 2015

Employment Change through the Recession and Recovery

Source: Georgetown Center on Education and the Workforce, “America’s Divided Recovery 2016” https://cew.georgetown.edu/cew-reports/americas-divided-recovery/#interactive.

In Sum

Modest increase in the total number of high school graduates projected through 2025-26 (2.7%) Increasing diversity, but not as much as the rest of the

region Fairly steady enrollment increases Minority students are enrolling at a higher rate, but

still lower than White students Significant variability among the institutions

Disparities in postsecondary attainment among certain racial/ethnic groups

In Sum

Maintaining adequate and sustained funding is challenging in light of enrollment increases Substantial tuition increases at certain institutions

Highest percentage growth is in healthcare fields, but the largest numbers are jobs that are often low-wage (sales/office support, blue collar, food and personal services)

Strategies Heading Into the FutureTHE GOAL:

Coordinating Board – Primary Functions

1. State-level planning – establish goals and monitor progress2. Formulate and implement state higher education finance policy3. Maintain databases and conduct analyses that inform policy4. Perform necessary regulatory functions (e.g., licensure, approval of

missions)5. Administer state programs (e.g., student financial aid)6. Take the lead in creating the delivery capacity necessary to

effectively and efficiently achieve state goals

40

Source: Aims McGuinness “State Policy Leadership for the Future,” Education Commission of the States, May 2016

Coordinating Board – Necessary CapacitiesEffective, sustained Policy Leadership requires

• Strength to counter inappropriate political, partisan, institutional, or parochial influences

• Capacity and responsibility for articulating and monitoring state performance objectives for higher education

• Ability to engage civic, business, and public school officials (as well as state government and higher education leaders) in identifying priority issues and implementing strategies necessary to addressing them

• Recognition of the distinctions between statewide policy and institutional governance

• Information gathering and analytic capacity to inform the choice of state goals/priorities and to interpret and evaluate statewide and institutional performance in relation to these goals

41

From NCPPHE “State Capacity for Higher Education Policy Leadership”, July 2005Source: Dennis Jones, National Center for Higher Education Management Systems, “Presentation to Oregon Higher Education Coordinating Commission,” August 2016.

Unique Challenges for Oregon

The HECC Board is a relatively new entity leading in a fiscally competitive environment with a very active legislature.

“The most persistent policy gap is that state finance policy is disconnected from public

agenda goals for higher education.”- Aims McGuinness “State Policy Leadership for the Future,” Education Commission of the States, May 2016

Strategies for Moving Forward

Establish and abide by clear roles and responsibilities that are distinct from those of the institutions.

Prioritize strategies that will be most impactful for the most students within the constrained fiscal environment.

Implement leadership training for the HECC Board to ensure competency with necessary capacities Seek a trainer that understands the role of a coordinating

board as opposed to the role of a board that oversees only a single institution

Unique Challenges for Oregon

The state does not have an expanding number of students in the pipeline to meet the state’s aggressive attainment goal.

Strategies for Moving Forward

Improve and leverage the statewide longitudinal database to engage in evidence-based decision-making.

Consider appropriate policy levers that incentivize the institutions to serve more students better. Implement funding strategies that incentivize student success

Outcomes-based funding at the two-year institutions Incentivize institutions to explore and implement evidence-

based strategies that improve student outcomes Dual/Concurrent Enrollment Guided Pathways Redesign of Developmental Education

Explore comprehensive, proven ways to successfully serve adult students

In the End…

Data to inform decisionsPolicy to solve problemsPolitical Will to make things

happen

Contact Information

Joe GarciaPresident

jgarcia@wiche.eduwww.wiche.edu