OST

What is ‘futures’ and What is ‘futures’ and what benefit can it what benefit can it

bring?bring?

Jo MarsdenOffice of Science and Technology

26 October 2005

www.foresight.gov.uk

OST

Presentation structure

• The Horizon Scanning Centre and Foresight•Background•Ways of working

• Brain Science, Addiction and Drugs: some techniques used with one project

• Foresight projects: what happened next?

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………..produce challenging visions of the future to ensure effective strategies now………

……….. by providing a core of excellence in science-based futures expertise and access to leaders in government, science and business.

Foresight and the OST Horizon Scanning Centre…

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Setting strategic context

Priorities, Innovation

Capability building

Public engagementpriorities

Wild cards!

Challenging visions…..

Living databasesLiving databases Scanning the Scans

Scientists’ views

Horizon Scanning

Innovation priorities

3

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∑ Scan

• Strategic context

• Authoritative evidence

• E.g.……..- ageing- geopolitics- culture- climate

Scan

Strategic scanning

• Emerging S&T

• Explore implications

• E.g.….. - stem cells- neuroimaging- plastic electronics- teleportation (!)

OST Key stakeholders

Research CouncilsFunding charities

Foresight and horizonscanning

Science base

BusinessGovernme

nt strategy

and policy

AcademicsInvestigators

Innovation supportMarkets infrastructureProcurement

Science informing policy decisions

Gov’tneeds

Business needs

Business needs

Knowledge

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Projects must tackle issues which:

•Look ahead at least 10 years

•Are driven by science and technology

•Have outcomes that can be influenced

•Are not covered by work carried on elsewhere

•Require an inter-disciplinary approach

•Command support

Value added impact

Value added impact

FuturesFutures

NetworksNetworks

Value added: existing

work

Value added: existing

work

Buy in Buy in

S & T S & T

OST Project Organisation Structure

Ministerial Stakeholder

Group

Project Director

Sir David King

OST Team

Expert Advisory

Group

Expert Engagement

Wider Stakeholder Engagement

Lead science co-ordinators

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• State of the art reviews

• Visions of the future

• Consequential actions

• Enduring networks

• Innovation in engagement

Project Outputs

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Brain science, addiction & drugs: project aims

• How can we manage the use of psychoactive substances in the future to best advantage for the individual, community and society.• What will the psychoactive substances of the future be?• What are the effects of using psychoactive substances?• What mechanisms do we have to manage psychoactive

substances?

State ofScience

Assessment of current and future capabilities

Horizon Scan

Highlighting advances of greater future impact

Scenarios

Considering those advances in different social environments

Project launch

Responses to the findings from interested organisations

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Shell’s 7 questions technique

•Scoping phase

1. If you could speak to an oracle in the year 2015 what would you like to ask?

2. What is your vision for success?

3. What are the dangers of not achieving your vision?

4. What needs to change (systems, relationships, decision making processes, culture for example) if your vision is to be realised?

5. Looking back 10 years, what are the successes we can build on? And the failures we can learn from?

6. What needs to be done now to ensure that your vision becomes a reality?

7. If you had absolute authority and could do anything is there anything else you would do?

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Structuring our thinking: project issue tree

• Inputs from • 7 questions, • scoping workshops (March and April 2004)• meetings and discussions with various

interested organisations• Identified the project’s key questions

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How can we manage the use of

psychoactive substances

by individuals and society in the future?

What psychoactive substances are there likely to be in the future?

What are the effects of usingpsychoactive substances?

What mechanisms do we have to manage the use of

psychoactive substances?

What motivates people to use them?

What can scientific advances offer us?

Level 1 Level 2 Level 3

What are their benefits?

What are their harms?

How can we prevent use?

How can we respond to use?

Example of part of the Issue Tree

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Areas covered by State-of-Science Reviews

•Clinical Psychology•Experimental Psychology•Neuroscience•Genomics•Pharmacology and Treatments•Cognition Enhancers•Imaging

•History of Addiction•Drug Testing•Behavioural Addiction•Life Histories and Narratives•Social Policy•Sociology•Economics•Ethics

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Brain Science, Addiction and Drugs Project: horizon scanning

•Key advances from the state of science reviews•Inputs from the state-of-science writers•Analyses by the key scientific experts

•Contributed to the development of the scenarios process•Stand alone publication

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Scenarios

• Henley Centre/Waverley Management Consultants

• 3 stage process/3 workshops • Driver assessment• Scenario development• Scenario testing and assessment

• Stakeholders involved at all stages

OSTLife enhancement

Life preservation

View-based regulation

Evidence-based regulation

High performanceHigh performance

• Decision making is based on scientific knowledge

• Widespread use of psychoactive substances to optimise performance and for recreation

• UK pharmas manufacture and supply cognitive enhancers

• Addiction is seen as an illness to be treated

Neighbourhood WatchNeighbourhood Watch

• Decision making is based on prevailing social views

• Widespread use of psychoactive substances in early stages, declining latterly

• UK pharmas manufacture and supply

• Addiction is not tolerated; the regime is punitive

Dispense With CareDispense With Care

• Decision making is based on prevailing social views

• General intolerance of psychoactive substances other than for treatment

• UK pharmas have withdrawn from manufacture because of cost constraints in the NHS

• Addiction is not tolerated; those who self-harm are excluded

Treated PositivelyTreated Positively

• Decision making is based on scientific knowledge

• Widespread acceptance of psychoactive substances for treatment; recreational use less so

• UK pharmas under treat from open-source niche players

• Addiction is not stigmatised; increasing use of preventative treatment

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Flooding: cross departmental action plan led by Defra Minister

Cognitive Systems: four Research Councils and the Wellcome Trust encourage joint research proposals

Exploiting the Electromagnetic Spectrum: Technology Strategy support for priority areas identified

Cyber Trust: gaming workshops to test robustness of new policies

Examples

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Exploiting the electromagnetic spectrum(EEMS)

Aims• Identify areas of rapidly moving science which

presented a significant potential future commercial opportunity for the UK

• Agree a plan of action to ensure that the UK captures a share of those emerging markets

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EEMS outcomes (12 month evaluation)(full report available on Foresight website)

Informing research and development• DTI Innovation Group funded 2 projects (£1.6M)• Research Councils funded >100 proposals (£37M)

Establishing links between business, investors and researchers• Venture capital events• Conferences• Publications• Media coverage (New Scientist, Physics World)Strengthening communities of interest• Impact of ICT on Healthcare• Medical Imaging NetworkInforming government and other agencies• OfCom (pervasive radio frequency area of EEMS)• RDAs (findings fed into RDA’s long term research strategies)

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Reflections on futures

• Futures work is a leap into the unknown for many!• Need to carry people with you through a process

that isn’t always easy to grasp• Use of technical jargon• Explain what these futures’ outputs could do for

those involved