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Simulating human land cover change in global climate models

Kansas and Climate Change

Johannes Feddemaand

Nathaniel Brunsell

Department of Geography

The University of Kansas

Outline

Kansas and climate change• Background on Kansas Climate• Kansas Climate over the last century• Global Climate over the last century• If we can’t trust the weatherman what about climate

projections – How reliable are climate models• Climate projections• Climate impacts

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Background on Kansas Climate

Background on Kansas Climate

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Temperature trends for Manhattan KS

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1850 1860 1870 1880 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

Year

Mea

n A

nnua

l Tem

pera

ture

(C)

Annual5 year MA9 year MA29 year MA

Precipitation trends for Manhattan KS

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1850 1860 1870 1880 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

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l Ann

ual P

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(mm

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Annual5 year MA9 year MA29 year MA

Sedan (KS): Mean Precipitation Time Series

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1880 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000Year

H2 O

mm

dep

th

AnnualMA 5 years9 years29 yearsClimatology

Sedan (KS): Mean Temperature Time Series

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1880 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

Year

Deg

rees

C

AnnualMA 5 years9 years29 yearsClimatology

Kansas Climate over the last century

Sedan (KS): Mean Maximum Temp Time Series

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1880 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

Year

Deg

rees

C

AnnualMA 5 years9 years29 yearsClimatology

Sedan (KS): Mean Minimum Temp Time Series

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1880 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

Year

Deg

rees

C

AnnualMA 5 years9 years29 yearsClimatology

Sedan (KS): Mean Temperature Time Series

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1880 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

Year

Deg

rees

C

AnnualMA 5 years9 years29 yearsClimatology

Kansas Climate over the last century

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Kansas Land Cover Patterns

• 91 % overall accuracy

Water classes

Urban c lasses

Cropland

Woodland

Grassland/Rangeland

O ther

Kansas Climate over the last century

Kansas Climate over the last century

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Kansas Climate over the last century

De Bilt (Neth): Mean Temperature Time Series

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1880 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

Year

Deg

rees

C

AnnualMA 5 years9 years29 yearsClimatology

De Bilt (Neth): Mean Precipitation Time Series

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1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000Year

H2 O

mm

dep

th

AnnualMA 5 years9 years29 yearsClimatology

Global Climate over the last century

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Global Climate over the last century

Keven Trenberth, NCAR

How reliable are climate models

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How reliable are climate models

Caspar AmmannNCAR/CGD

How reliable are climate models

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CO2,CH4 and estimated global temperature (Antarctic ΔT/2 in ice core era)0 = 1880-1899 mean.

Source: Hansen, Clim. Change, 68, 269, 2005.

Climate projections

Raupach et al., PNAS, 2007

Climate projections

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Climate change experiments from 16 groups (11 countries) and 23 models collected at PCMDI (over 31 terabytes of model data)

Committed warming averages 0.1°C per decade for the first two decades of the 21st century; across all scenarios, the average warming is 0.2°C per decade for that time period (recent observed trend 0.2°C per decade)

IPCC Ch. 10, Fig. 10.4, TS-32

Anomalies

relative

to 1980-99

Climate projections

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Figures based on Tebaldi et al. 2006: Climatic Change, Going to the extremes; An intercomparison of model-simulated historical and future changes in extreme events, http://www.cgd.ucar.edu/ccr/publications/tebaldi-extremes.html

Climate projections

Figures based on Tebaldi et al. 2006: Climatic Change, Going to the extremes; An intercomparison of model-simulated historical and future changes in extreme events, http://www.cgd.ucar.edu/ccr/publications/tebaldi-extremes.html

Climate projections

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Multi-model average precipitation % change, medium scenario (A1B), representing seasonal precipitation regimes, total differences 2090-99 minus 1980-99

Climate projections

White areas are where less than two thirds of the models agree in the sign of the change

Climate projections

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Stippled areas are where more than 90% of the models agree in the sign of the change

Precipitation increases very likely in high latitudes

Decreases likely in most subtropical land regions

This continues the observed patterns in recent trends

Fig. SPM-6

Climate projections

Present Day Normal D = 47S = 304 +1 C Summer

+2 C Spring and Fall+3 C Winter

D = 69S = 242

D = 68S = 274

+ 1 C all months D = 95S = 246

+ 2 C all months D = 123S = 216

+ 3 C all months

Climate projections D = Annual Deficit (mm)S = Annual Surplus (mm)Eastern Kansas (37N, 95W)

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- 10% precipitationD = 98S = 161

No Change in Precipitation

D = 69S = 242

+10% Precipitation D = 46S = 325

+20% Precipitation D = 30S = 418

D = Annual Deficit (mm)S = Annual Surplus (mm)

Climate projections

Present Day Normal D = 47S = 304

All temperature scenarios+1 C Summer+2 C Spring and Fall+3 C Winter

Eastern Kansas (37N, 95W)

Present Day Normal D = 330S = 0

+ 1 C all months D = 377S = 0

+ 2 C all months D = 433S = 0

+1 C Summer+2 C Spring and Fall+3 C Winter

D = 412S = 0

+ 3 C all months D = 484S = 0

D = Annual Deficit (mm)S = Annual Surplus (mm)

Climate projectionsWestern Kansas (37N, 102W)

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D = 455S = 0

- 10% precipitation D = 412S = 0

No Change in Precipitation

D = 366S = 0

+10% Precipitation

D = 322S = 0

+20% Precipitation

D = Annual Deficit (mm)S = Annual Surplus (mm)

Climate projections

Present Day Normal D = 330S = 0

All temperature scenarios+1 C Summer+2 C Spring and Fall+3 C Winter

Western Kansas (37N, 102W)

The End

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IPCC Report on Anthropogenic Climate Impacts

Ammann et al.

How reliable are climate models

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Changes in Sea Ice Coverage

Meehl et al, 2005

Abrupt Transitions in the Summer Sea Ice

ObservationsSimulated5-year running mean

• Gradual forcing results in abrupt Sept ice decrease

• Extent decreases from 80 to 20% coverage in 10 years.

“Abrupt”transition

Simulation of Future Climate

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Future Directions

Combine the urban and other land cover datasets at 1 km resolution – use multiple satellite derived sources

Develop transient datasets compatible with the present Day MODIS derived dataset based on past population and other country level statistics

Develop a soil degradation model and accompanying datasets

Develop fire model based on land cover and other national levelstatistics

Simulating Human Land Cover Change in Global Climate Models

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IPCC, 2007