Overshooting Convective Cloud Top DetectionA GOES-R Future Capability Product

1995-2011 GOES-East (-8/-12/-13) OT Detections at Full Spatial and Temporal Resolution, 0.25 Degree Resolution Grid

Animation Normalized By The Number of Scans In Each Two-Hour Period

Kristopher Bedka (SSAI @ NASA LaRC): kristopher.m.bedka@nasa.gov in collaboration with UW-CIMSS and NASA LaRC

• A method to objectively detect overshooting convective cloud tops (OTs) and the enhanced-V signature has been developed in support of the GOES-R Aviation Algorithm Working Group

• Publications have shown good correlation between OT detections, severe weather reports, objective in-situ aviation turbulence, LMA total lightning observations, and a long-term climatology of cloud-to-ground lightning

• The OT detection product has been evaluated within the NOAA Hazardous Weather and Aviation Weather Testbeds and the 2012 European Severe Storms Laboratory Testbed

• Testbed evaluations indicate that the product is consistent in accurate detection of OT signatures, but detection capability is impacted the relatively coarse spatial and temporal resolution of current GOES. Analysis shows that detection rate may increase ten-fold when the algorithm is applied to 2 km and 5 min ABI data

• Evaluations also suggest that the product can provide valuable situational situational awareness over data-rich regions and could be used to pinpoint hazardous areas within thunderstorms over data-poor land and ocean regions

Overshooting Convective Cloud Top DetectionA Severe Weather Situational Awareness and Decision Aid

Severe Storm Reports +/- 15 mins From Image

Severe weather is occurring near active updraft regions that can be objectively detected via IR spatial gradients and temperature thresholding combined with NWP tropopause information

Severe Weather Type

# Severe Reports OT Match %

Tornado 4,684 56.2%

Severe Wind 52,743 58.4%

Large Hail 56,114 51.3%

Any Type 113,541 54.8%

Frequency of Overshooting Top Detection Near Confirmed Severe Weather Events: April-September 2004-2009

24 HOURS OF OT DETECTIONS VS. SEVERE WEATHER REPORTS:

Joplin, MO Tornado Event

Satellite-Based Overshooting Top Detections Often Precede NWS Severe Weather Warnings By 20 Mins, Providing Valuable

Situational Awareness Of A Hazardous Thunderstorm(Dworak et al. WAF, 2012)

Frequency of Any Turbulence Intensity At Varying Radius From GOES Overshooting Top Detections

United Airlines Boeing 757s: 2005-2008 Over CONUS

Overshooting Convective Cloud Top DetectionAWC Testbed Evaluation and Aviation Turbulence Relationships

SEVERE TURBULENCE 10 TIMES MORE LIKELY WHEN AIRCRAFT FLY WITHIN 5 KM OF AN OT DETECTION VS.

SPATIALLY UNIFORM CLOUD TOP (Bedka et al., JAMC 2010)

Turbulence reported

within 10 km of OT

detection