Oxfordshire Projections 2014-2052

1

Population projections, autumn 2014

Summary report

For full data and copies of this report:

www.oxfordshire.gov.uk/insight

Oxfordshire

Projections

2014-2052

2

Contents Introduction ....................................................................................................................................................... 3

Results ............................................................................................................................................................... 4

Headline figures: ............................................................................................................................................ 5

Oxfordshire ................................................................................................................................................ 6

Cherwell ..................................................................................................................................................... 8

Oxford City ................................................................................................................................................. 9

South Oxfordshire .................................................................................................................................... 10

Vale of White Horse ................................................................................................................................. 11

West Oxfordshire ..................................................................................................................................... 12

Births Deaths and Natural Change .................................................................................................................. 13

Changing Age Structure ................................................................................................................................... 14

Children ....................................................................................................................................................... 16

Older People ................................................................................................................................................ 17

People of working age and state pension age ............................................................................................. 18

Why the age structure is changing .................................................................................................................. 20

Household formation and partner status .................................................................................................... 20

Life Expectancy ................................................................................................................................................ 19

Appendix .......................................................................................................................................................... 25

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Introduction This report introduces the long-range population projections released by Oxfordshire County

Council’s Research and Intelligence Unit in autumn 2014. These projections are the first long-

range (to 2052) projections of population or household growth that the Unit has produced.

They complement the Unit’s population and household forecast work, rather than replacing or

being an alternative to forecasts. They have been produced to:

Provide a long-term indication of likely changes in the population (up to 2052 in this

release), far beyond the period usually identified in district local plans, upon which

forecasts are based.

Document the upper and lower limits of population change that is feasible and which

Oxfordshire and its districts may experience in coming years – to support planning for the

longer-term.

Interpret national-level uncertainty about how the population’s overall size and age-

distribution may change (uncertainty nationally about future fertility, migration, life

expectancy, and the economy) by showing how different outcomes in each area would

affect the population of Oxfordshire and its districts.

It is important to understand the differences between the projections and forecasts produced

by the Research and Intelligence Unit. Neither provides a crystal-ball, nor a time machine (the

future is always subject to uncertainty and change), but they provide the best evidence

available about how the population is likely to change. Our projections and forecasting both

make statements about the future population, but with crucial differences:

Research and Intelligence Unit forecasts are based on published district local plans (the

best evidence at any point in time of how housing stock will change over the short-medium

term). They are a single set of population data, representing a single scenario for changes

in life expectancy, fertility, migration, household formation, and housing stock changes;

R&I Projections are independent of district local plans. They are a series of population

data, representing the range of variation considered feasible for changes in life

expectancy, fertility, migration, and housing growth.

For Full results see: www.oxfordshire.gov.uk/insight

4

Results We have produced a series of variant projections, in a manner similar to the England wide

long-term projections produced by the ONS. Each variant shows how the population would

change if the individual factors that affect population change occur in a particular combination,

within the range that’s considered feasible. E.g. it is expected that life expectancy will continue

to increase, but it is unclear by how much: there is a range within which experts think future

life expectancy will lie. We don’t know which point in the range is “right” (there is no crystal

ball) but we can explore what will happen if the highest or lowest points in the range occur in

the coming years. The five variant scenarios are:

1. “Principal”: a projection of the population with each variable set to the middle of the

“possible” range for each individual variable. Principal uses the middle-of-the-range value

for each factor that can influence how the population changes.

2. “Maximum”: a projection of the population with each variable set to the combination in

which the population growth is maximised, within the ‘possible’ range for each individual

variable.

3. “Minimum”: a projection of the population with each variable set to the combination in

which the population growth is minimised, within the ‘possible’ range for each individual

variable.

4. “Old”: a projection of the population with mid-level housing growth and each demographic

variable set to the combination in which a large older population and a small child

population occurs, within the ‘possible’ range for each individual variable.

5. “Young”: a projection of the population with mid-level housing growth and each

demographic variable set to the combination in which a large child population and a small

older population occurs, within the ‘possible’ range for each individual variable.

Projection name

Fertility setting (number of

babies born per woman)

Life expectancy (how long

people live, on average)

International migration (overall

emigration or immigration numbers)

Housing growth (how much new housing will be built each year)

Principal Mid Mid Mid Mid

Maximum High Low High High

Minimum Low High Low Low

Old Low High Low Mid

Young High Low High Mid

See appendix for further details of how each variant projection was created.

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Headline figures:

The Principal projection indicates continued population growth, reaching 930 ,000 people by

2052 – up by over 40% from 666,000 in 2014.

The Principal projection projects that Oxfordshire’s population will grow on-average of around

6,700 people per year from now until 2052, which is significantly above observed growth since

1991 (on average just over 4,000 people per year). The reasons for this are partly changes in

birth rates and life expectancy that are already observable now: Mid-Year Estimates from the

Office for National Statistics estimate that Oxfordshire’s population has grown by 5,000 per

year since the 2011 Census was taken. Additonally, this rate of growth reflects the mid-point

of the range of housing delivery used in other variants: in the past 15 years, new homes have

been built at a rate of about 2,300 per year, whereas the mid-point in the range of future

housing expectations is almost 3,000.

Why is the mid-point in the future housing assumptions higher than that observerd in the

recent past? The mid-point lies between the two extremes of:

the maximum housing delivery assumption, which reflects the SHMA: this itself

indicates a rate of housing delivery muich higher than seen in recent decades

the minimum assumption reflects delivery low-points observed in the last decade.

On this basis, the projections would be “expected” to project higher rates of housing growth

(and thereby population growth) than recently observed, on the basis that the recent past

reflects historic housing “under-delivery” which is an unlikely scenario for the future given

current evidence.

6

Oxfordshire Under the principal projections, Oxfordshire’s population could increase to 93,000 in 2052, a 28%

increase.

Figure 1: Oxfordshire population projections, principal projection

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However under variant projections Oxfordshire’s population could almost double and

reach 1.15 million people by 2052, or growth could be far lesss dramatic, with the

population increasing by only 10% to 723,000.

Figure 2: Oxfordshire population projections, all projections

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Cherwell

Under the principal projection scenario, the population of Cherwell is projected to grow by

54,000 (38%) over the next 38 years. The high growth scenario predicts that the population of

Cherwell could reach 251,000 a 75% increase. The low growth scenario projects a 1%

increase in the population to reach 145,000 in 2052.

Figure 3: Cherwell population projections, all projections

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Oxford City

Under the principal projection Oxford’s population is projected to grow by 41,000 (26%) to

reach 198,000 by 2052. Under the high growth scenario the population is projected to reach

241,000 a 54% increase. Under the low growth scenario, Oxford’s population is projected to

increase 1.7% to 160,000.

Figure 4: Oxford population projections, all projections

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South Oxfordshire

The principal assumption projects an increase in the population of South Oxfordshire of

51,000 (37%) to 188,000. Under the high growth scenario the projected growth is 93,000

(69%) to 228,000 while the minimum growth scenario population growth is projected to be

15,000 (14%) to give a total of 152,000.

Figure 5: South Oxfordshire population projections, all projections

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Vale of White Horse

According to the principal projection the population of Vale of the White Horse is projected to

increase by 56,000 to reach 180,000 over the next 38 years. Under the high growth projection,

the population would rise by 110,000 (89%) to 232,000. The low growth assumption projects

the population of the Vale of the White Horse increasing by 9,000 (7%) to 133,000.

Figure 6: Vale population projections, all projections

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West Oxfordshire

Under the principal scenario West Oxfordshire’s population is projected to grow by 56,000

(52%) to 164,000. The maximum population growth assumptions project an increase of

94,000 (88%) to reach 20,000. Meanwhile, the population increase under the minimum

scenario is projected to be 25,000 (23%) with the total population reaching 133,000 in 2052.

Figure 7: West Oxfordshire population projections, all projections

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Births Deaths and Natural Change – Principal Projection

Over two thirds of the total increase in Oxfordshire’s population between now and 2052 is

projected to be as a result of net migration into the county (177,000 of the 258,000 additional

residents)

Table 1: Factors leading to population change (components of change)

The numbers of births and deaths projected are dependent on the level of net migration.

Given that female migration is concentrated at young adult ages the number of births is

affected by the assumed level of net migration: net migration into Oxfordshire results in

disproportionately more children being born.

Oxon Principal 2014-2024 2024-2034 2034-2044 2044-2052

Population at start 670568 749841 819057 879239

Births 87003 93195 97580 82149

Deaths 59335 69269 80340 70023

Natural Change 27669 23926 17240 12126

Net Migration 51604 45290 42943 37139

Total Change 79273 69216 60183 49264

Population at End 749841 819057 879239 928504

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Changing Age Structure – Principal Projection

Although the numbers of each population group increase over the projection period, the

proportion of the total made up of each group changes over that period.

The proportion of the population comprising those of pensionable age is projected to

fall by 1% over the next 10 years as a result of the qualification age of the state

pension changing. However over the full projection period the proportion is expected to

increase from 19% to 21%

Those aged 85 and over are projected to represent the largest proportional increase of

all groups: they are expected to increase from 2% of the population to 6% by 2052.

The working age population is projected to increase from 62% to 63% of the population

over the next 10 years. However over the full projection period, the proportion is

projected to fall to 61%

Table 2: Projected population by age, 2014 to 2052

* Working age and pensionable age populations based on State Pension age for given year. Between 2012 and 2018, State Pension age will change from 65 years for men and 61 years for women, to 65 years for both sexes. Then between 2019 and 2020, State Pension age will change from 65 years to 66 years for both men and women. Between 2034 and 2046, State Pension age will increase in two stages from 66 years to 68 years for both sexes. This is based on State Pension age under the 2011 Pensions Act. ** The old age support ratio is calculated as working age population / pensionable age population.

Age group summary,

Change in total numbers2014 2024 2034 2044 2054

Under 5 41324 44789 47615 49957 52271

School Age* 91183 103957 111877 118083 122865

Young Adults 17-24 73933 76820 84295 88316 91020

Main Working Age Groups

25-Pensionable Age*341648 397987 424686 447558 478573

85+ 16276 22830 35006 44588 59223

Working Age* 415581 474807 508981 535874 569593

Pensionable Age* 129619 133816 159546 183077 192327

Old Age Support Ratio** 3.2 3.5 3.2 2.9 3.0

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Figure 8: percentage change, relative to 2014 of the size of age selected groups

Table 3: Change in the share of total population for each age group 2014 – 2052.

Age group summary

percentage of total

population

2014 2024 2034 2044 2054

Under 5 6% 6% 6% 6% 6%

School Age* 14% 14% 14% 13% 13%

Young Adults 17-24 11% 10% 10% 10% 10%

Main Working Age Groups

25-Pensionable Age*51% 53% 52% 51% 52%

85 and Over 2% 3% 4% 5% 6%

Working Age* 62% 63% 62% 61% 61%

Pensionable Age* 19% 18% 19% 21% 21%

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Children

According to the principal projection, the number of children is projected to increase by 32%

over the next 38 years to reach 175,000. Of this increase the 11-16 year old population is

projected to increase by 38% to 61,000, while the primary school population is projected to

increase by 31% to 61,000. Children under 5 are projected to experience the slowest rate of

increase – 26% - to reach 52,000. With the principal scenario, those aged under 16 will

comprise 20% of the population in 2054, the same percentage as at present.

Figure 9: Change in the child population of Oxfordshire under the principal projection

Under the young population projection the number of children is projected to increase by

82,000 (62%) to 213,000. This scenario maximises the number of children while keeping the

old age population low, by 2052 children are projected to comprise 22% of the population.

Figure 10: Change in the child population of Oxfordshire under the young population

projection

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Older People

Each older age group is projected to increase substantially over the next 38 years with the

largest increase being in people aged over 90 with a projected increase of 23,000 (382%).

Those 80-90 are projected to increase by 39,000 (151%) while the 70-79 population is

projected to increase by 30,000(64%). This increase means that by 2052 19% of the

population are projected to be over 70 compared to 12% at present.

Figure 11: Change in the older population of Oxfordshire under the principal projection

The old population scenario projects the number of people aged over 70 to increase by

130,000 (170%) to 205,000, of this increase 44,000 (34%) is expected to be of people aged

90 or over. This scenario explores the maximum feasible older population growth and the

lowest child population. By 2052 the scenario projects that those aged over 70 will comprise

24% of the population. Additionally the old age support ratio is expected to be 2.3 in 2052.

Figure 12: Change in the older popualation of Oxfordshire under the old population

projection

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People of working age and state pension age

The number of people of state pension age is projected to increase by 48% to reach 192,000

by 2052. Due to changes in the state pension age, the majority of this growth is projected to

occur after 2024. The increase is a result of both the higher number of people born in the

1960s baby boom reaching state pension age, and the projected improvements in mortality.

Over the projection period the number of working age adults is projected to increase by 37%

to reach 579,000. In 2014 there were 3.3 people of working age for every person of state

pension age. In 2052 the old age support ratio is projected to have fallen to 3.

Amongst the working age population the fastest rate of increase is projected for the 45-

pension age group; they are projected to increase by 88,000 (55%) to reach 249,000 in 2052.

In comparison the numbers of young adults and those aged 25-44 will see a smaller increase

(23% and 26% respectively).

Figure 13: Change in the working age population udner the principal projection

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Life Expectancy

Life expectance figures are a product of the mortality rates currently observed in each

age/gender group of the population. Life expectancy figures produced today indicate the

average number of years which people born now would live if they experienced the currently

observed mortality rates in the population throughout their life. They provide a single statistic

describing the mortality rates operating in a population. They are not a real indication of how

long a person born in a given year will live, since mortality rates have, and will continue to,

change – there is a general on-going lowering of mortality rates and increasing life expectancy

in England.

Using the projection assumptions for future changes in mortality rates (see appendix), the

changes in survival rates enable calculation of mortality rates that would occur in future years

if these assumptions about future changes in mortality rates are realised.

Table 3: Current and projected future life expectancies in Oxfordshire

Men Women Men Women Men Women

2014 79.3 82.8 79.5 82.9 79.1 82.6

2024 80.4 83.6 81.6 84.5 79.1 82.6

2034 81.3 84.3 83.3 85.8 79.1 82.6

2044 82.3 85.0 84.9 87.0 79.1 82.6

2052 83.0 85.6 86.0 87.8 79.0 82.6

Principal Projection Minimum Projection Maximum Projection

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Why the age structure is changing

Growth of the working age population is projected to trail the growth of the ‘retirement plus’

group because lower fertility rates were seen in the 1970s, 80s, and 90s compared to the

post-war baby boom. These historic changes in birth rates mean that fewer people will age-

into the working age groups than have done in recent years. Offsetting this is the assumption

that the recent international in-migration of working-age people into Oxfordshire will continue,

and that people moving from other parts of the UK into newly built housing within Oxfordshire

tend to be working age. Without these migration patterns, the forecasts of working age

populations up to 2052 would be lower.

Household formation and partner status

As well as forecasting age and gender* of the future population, the forecasts include

assumptions about partner status of individuals (i.e. whether or not they live with a partner, or

have previously done so), and the relationship of people of a given age/gender/partner status

to household formation. This constrains population size to housing supply in the forecasting

process. Forecast totals by age and gender are further divided into three categories:

In a couple (i.e. live with a partner);

Previously in a couple (i.e. previously lived with a partner but now do not); and

Single (never lived with a partner).

These totals are calculated by applying expectations about partner status for each age/gender

group in each year and applying them to an initial projection of population. Aside from being

required for housing-matched projections of the total population, projected numbers by

partner-status are important for:

Investigating changes in the likelihood of people living alone in old age, which has

implications for care and health services, as well as social impacts;

Understanding the housing needs of the population;

Better understanding the lifestyles, and therefore needs, of Oxfordshire’s population.

Tables showing the projected proportion of people in each age/gender group by

couple/previously in a couple/single category are shown below, but the key points of note are:

People aged 18 to 24: this group is as likely to live with a partner in 2052 as in 2014,

there is no significant change.

People 25 to 64, of both genders, and men 65-74: these groups will be slightly more

likely to live alone in 2052 vs. 2014, and less likely to have previously done so.

Women aged 75+, and men aged 85+: they will be more likely to live with a partner –

significantly more so for women.

These results arise from the combination of two factors. Firstly, there has been a societal

trend towards living alone rather than with a partner, observed in the post-war baby-boomers

compared to the generation before. This trend has slowed however, so for those currently

under-24 the prevalence of living alone is not expected to be higher than for their parents.

Secondly, life expectancy is increasing for both men and women, but men’s is increasing

faster than for women. This means that the difference in the age at which partners in male-

21

female couples die is narrowing, resulting in more women having a surviving male partner

living with them.

This section discusses the population of Oxfordshire in terms of numbers of “men” and

“women”. In reality the population will include a number of persons currently identified, or who

have previously or will at some point in their lives, identify as intersex or transgendered.

Depending on definitions used, 1-2 people per 2000 are identifiable at birth as intersex, with

additional numbers identifiable as intersex later in life.

The projections are limited to presenting data in terms of “men” and “women” due to the

limitations of source data and the lack of reliable figures for the number of transgender and

intersex people in the county (such data was not collected by the 2011 Census, for example).

Where numbers of “men” and “women” appear in these forecasts, these in fact include

transgender and intersex persons.

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Future Households in Oxfordshire: Older Age groups

The percentage of older people livingalone changes over time. Key factors are:

Between 2014 and 2026 the pension age of women rises from 61 to 66, increasing the average age of women pensioners.

The life expectancy of men will increase faster than the life expectacy of women, reducing the likelihood that a women in a

male-female couple is left alone when a male partner dies

Different age cohorts have different life patterns – some have a higher lifetime tendency to live in couples than others, altering

the lifestyle mix of the older age groups over time.

All Oxfordshire

Pensioners

Living Alone

All

Pensioners

% Pensioners

Living Alone

%85+

Living

Alone All 85+

% 85+

Living Alone

Pensioners

Living Alone

All

Pensioners

%

Pensioners

Living Alone

85+ Living

Alone All 85+

% 85+

Living

Alone

2014 13970 51576 27% 2660 5613 47% 35182 63199 56% 8706 10668 82%

2024 17184 58588 29% 3801 8650 44% 36532 75431 48% 10495 14215 74%

2034 21250 67711 31% 5573 12955 43% 46068 92329 50% 15194 22135 69%

2044 24120 75505 32% 6809 15823 43% 55665 108513 51% 19868 28930 69%

2052 25815 78262 33% 9043 21006 43% 61730 115609 53% 26455 38501 69%

Men Women

Cherwell

Pensioners

Living Alone

All

Pensioners

% Pensioners

Living Alone

85+ Living

Alone All 85+

% 85+

Living Alone

Pensioners

Living Alone

All

Pensioners

%

Pensioners

Living Alone

85+ Living

Alone All 85+

% 85+

Living

Alone

2014 2815 11188 25% 513 1052 49% 7202 13314 54% 1737 2129 82%

2024 3726 13399 28% 836 1816 46% 7618 16166 47% 2143 2880 74%

2034 4909 16259 30% 1320 2899 46% 9882 20397 48% 3125 4496 69%

2044 5795 18439 31% 1725 3788 46% 12163 24196 50% 4207 6053 69%

2052 6379 19508 33% 2392 5253 46% 13559 25742 53% 5875 8454 69%

Men Women

23

Oxford

Pensioners

Living Alone

All

Pensioners

% Pensioners

Living Alone

85+ Living

Alone All 85+

% 85+

Living Alone

Pensioners

Living Alone

All

Pensioners

%

Pensioners

Living Alone

85+ Living

Alone All 85+

% 85+

Living

Alone

2014 3096 7665 40% 453 906 50% 6785 10030 68% 1548 1877 82%

2024 3258 7565 43% 517 1107 47% 6735 12095 56% 1537 2045 75%

2034 3517 7876 45% 616 1336 46% 8569 14952 57% 2064 2943 70%

2044 3737 8361 45% 690 1497 46% 10723 18524 58% 2878 4104 70%

2052 3921 8727 45% 856 1857 46% 12514 21385 59% 3806 5427 70%

Men Women

South

Oxfordshrie

Pensioners

Living Alone

All

Pensioners

% Pensioners

Living Alone

85+ Living

Alone All 85+

% 85+

Living Alone

Pensioners

Living Alone

All

Pensioners

%

Pensioners

Living Alone

85+ Living

Alone All 85+

% 85+

Living

Alone

2014 3138 12363 25% 645 1331 48% 8093 14942 54% 2052 2530 81%

2024 3954 13906 28% 1039 2338 44% 8347 17359 48% 2569 3510 73%

2034 4934 15981 31% 1513 3505 43% 10279 20778 49% 3751 5501 68%

2044 5471 17386 31% 1796 4162 43% 12041 23740 51% 4664 6840 68%

2052 5680 17289 33% 2369 5487 43% 12853 24146 53% 6142 9008 68%

Men Women

Vale of the

White Horse

Pensioners

Living Alone

All

Pensioners

% Pensioners

Living Alone

85+ Living

Alone All 85+

% 85+

Living Alone

Pensioners

Living Alone

All

Pensioners

%

Pensioners

Living Alone

85+ Living

Alone All 85+

% 85+

Living

Alone

2014 2562 10643 24% 543 1197 45% 6739 13142 51% 1727 2157 80%

2024 3354 12927 26% 767 1851 41% 6978 15584 45% 2167 3037 71%

2034 4197 14889 28% 1157 2860 40% 8573 18659 46% 3036 4632 66%

2044 4828 16848 29% 1413 3493 40% 10117 21365 47% 3913 5970 66%

2052 5237 17724 30% 1813 4480 40% 10995 22362 49% 4998 7625 66%

Men Women

24

West

Oxforshire

Pensioners

Living Alone

All

Pensioners

% Pensioners

Living Alone

85+ Living

Alone All 85+

% 85+

Living Alone

Pensioners

Living Alone

All

Pensioners

%

Pensioners

Living Alone

85+ Living

Alone All 85+

% 85+

Living

Alone

2014 2360 9718 24% 506 1126 45% 6364 11771 54% 1642 1975 83%

2024 2891 10792 27% 642 1538 42% 6854 14227 48% 2081 2744 76%

2034 3692 12706 29% 967 2355 41% 8765 17543 50% 3218 4562 71%

2044 4288 14472 30% 1185 2884 41% 10620 20687 51% 4206 5962 71%

2052 4599 15014 31% 1614 3929 41% 11809 21973 54% 5634 7987 71%

Men Women

25

Appendix – detail variables used for each projection scenario

Projection name

Fertility Life expectancy International migration Internal migration Housing growth / economic growth

Principal (middle

setting for all

variables)

ONS mid assumption, used to modify recent historic district Age-

Specific Fertility Rates observed in each

district

50% of recent “slippage” behind national fertility in

Oxford City continues

ONS mid mortality trajectory, used to

modify recent historic district Age-Specific

Mortality Rates s

ONS mid assumption, used to modify recent

historic district age/gender totals.

Existing recent historic rates – except fixed-

flows for student ages in Oxford City.

mid -point between historic lowest 5 year

period level of housing delivery since mid-1990s, and highest level (“SHMA max”

totals)

Maximum

ONS high assumption, used to modify recent historic

district ASFRs

Zero on-going “slippage” behind national fertility for

Oxford City

ONS high trajectory, used to modify recent historic district ASMRs

(higher mortality in upper age groups, younger population

profile, higher occupancy rating,

more people overall living in each area)


district age/gender totals.



Max housing growth (“SHMA max” to 2031, plus continued level of

SHMA-upper delivery/max

economic growth after 2031, aside from

“catch-up” addition (Figs 2, 11 of SHMA

report)

Minimum

ONS low assumption, used to modify recent historic district ASFRs

Recent “slippage”

behind national fertility for Oxford City

continues

ONS low trajectory, used to modify recent historic district ASMRs

ONS low assumption, used to modify recent




Min lowest 5 year period level of housing

delivery since mid-1990s, continued

2012-2052

26

Old

ONS low assumption, used to modify recent historic district ASFRs

Recent “slippage”

behind national fertility for Oxford City

continues

ONS LOW mortality trajectory, used to

modify recent historic district ASMRs

ONS low assumption, used to modify recent





period level of housing delivery since mid-1990s, and highest level (SHMA max

totals)

Young


district ASFRs

Zero on-going “slippage” behind national fertility for

Oxford City

ONS high mortality trajectory, used to

modify recent historic district ASMRs


district age/gender totals.




period level of housing delivery since mid-1990s, and highest level (SHMA max

totals)

Documents

Oxfordshire Projections 2014-2052