OZONETRANSPORTCOMMISSIONOZONETRANSPORTCOMMISSION

Sta$onary/AreaSourceCommi2eeUpdate

OTCFallMee$ngNovember5,2015

HiltonHotelBal$more,Maryland

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Outline

• UpdateonCommi8eeefforts• Updateoncomple>ngCharge• MovingForward-NextstepsfortheSASCommi8ee

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AbbreviatedCommi2eeCharge• LargestContributorAnalysis

•  Iden$fythelargestindividualsandgroupingsofNOxemi2erswithinstateswherethatstatecontributesatleast1%ofthe2008ozoneNAAQSof75ppbtoOTCstates;

•  Iden$fyemissionsourceswiththehighestshort-termemissionsofNOxandVOC;• EvaluaterealworldachievableNOxemissionratesacrossloadrangestoadjustlongandshorttermexpecta$onsforemissionreduc$ons.

• DevelopindividualstateEGUNOxemissionratesachievable,consideringreasonableavailablecontrols.

• DemandandEmergencyGeneratorInforma>on• Es$matetheemissionsfromtheuseofdemandresponsegenera$onunitsinplaceofcleanersourcesofenergyonHighElectricDemandDays.CollaboratewithotherCommi2eesoftheOTCtoanalyzethees$mateddatatounderstandtheairqualityimpactoftheopera$onofthedistributedandemergencygeneratorsandmakerecommenda$onsforpoten$alcontrolstrategiestotheCommission

• ReasonablyAvailableControlTechnology• Toprovideeachstatewithacommonbaseofinforma$on,aworkgroupwilldevelopalis$ngofemissionratesineachstatewithintheOTRforsourcecategoriesresponsibleforsignificantNOxandVOCemissionsandiden$fyarangeofemissionsratesthattherespec$vestatehasdeterminedtobeRACT.

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LargestContributor(EGU)AnalysisThedraaEGUEmissionsInventoryAnalysisWhitepaperincludes*:

•  Analysisof2011and2012statelevelozoneseasonEGUNOxemissions(tons)andozoneseasonstateaverageEGUNOxemissionrate(lb/mmBtu)data.

•  Analysis1-NOxcontrolsandEGUre$rements•  Analysis2-ShortTerm(Hourly)EGUNOxEmissions-2012•  Analysis3-EGUNOxemissionsduringthe2011OzoneSeason

includingemissions,fueltype,andtemperaturecharts.•  Analysis4-“CoalSCRScorecard”Analysis-2011&2012•  Analysis5-Recommenda$onformodelingofShortTermNOx

emissionlimitsforEGUs

• TheOTCSASCommi2eeisworkingwiththeOTCModelingCommi2eeandtheUniversityofMarylandtomodelAnalysis1oftheEGUEmissionInventoryAnalysisWhitepaper-

• Addi$onalmodelingrunsbasedontheEmissionsInventoryAnalysisWhitepaperwillbeconductedinthefuture

4*availableontheOTCwebsiteatwww.otcair.org

Top25NOxEmi2ers-2015OS

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*PinkhighlightindicatesunitswithSCRinstalled*BOR=BestObservedRate

State Facility Name Facility ID Unit ID BOR* Year Avg. NOx Rate (lb/MMBtu) NO x (tons ) IN Rockport 6166 MB1 0.208 3,976 IN Rockport 6166 MB2 0.207 3,677 LA Ninemile Point 1403 5 0.319 3,008 WV Harrison Power Station 3944 3 0.066 2005 0.342 2,965 AR White Bluff 6009 1 0.276 2,898 WV Harrison Power Station 3944 2 0.066 2005 0.364 2,855 LA Ninemile Point 1403 4 0.343 2,717 PA Homer City 3122 1 0.067 2006 0.351 2,624 OH Avon Lake Power Plant 2836 12 0.396 2,617 NC Marshall 2727 4 0.272 2,460 PA Bruce Mansfield 6094 1 0.076 2004 0.242 2,409 AR White Bluff 6009 2 0.286 2,398 PA Conemaugh 3118 1 0.227 2,353 PA Montour, LLC 3149 1 0.044 2003 0.309 2,246 PA Montour, LLC 3149 2 0.047 2003 0.336 2,203 PA Keystone 3136 1 0.042 2003 0.232 2,198 WV Harrison Power Station 3944 1 0.063 2005 0.318 2,155 PA Homer City 3122 3 0.087 2005 0.282 2,131 PA Brunner Island, LLC 3140 3 0.325 2,111 PA Conemaugh 3118 2 0.200 2,012 WV Mountaineer (1301) 6264 1 0.039 2007 0.108 1,979 AR Flint Creek Power Plant 6138 1 0.264 1,970 IN IPL - Petersburg Generating Station 994 4 0.264 1,946 PA Keystone 3136 2 0.043 2008 0.243 1,907 AR Independence 6641 1 0.239 1,771

It’sCheapertoBuyAllowancethantorunControls

Unit SargentandLundymethod(pershortton)

CSAPRAllowance(pershortton)*

Unit1(153MW)

$439-$1,985

Annual:$143Seasonal:$255

Unit2(403MW)

$440-$2,118

Annual:$143Seasonal:$255

Unit3(958MW)

$439-$1,755 Annual:$143Seasonal:$255

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*AirDaily:Issue22-190,October2,2015

Scenario3AReduceNOxatallcoal-firedSCRandSNCRunits(inthe176Ape$$onstates,plusMDandPA)tothelowestozoneseasonaverageemissionratesasseeninCAMDdata(2005-2012).

•  ThelowestozoneseasonaverageemissionratewasselectedforallunitswithSCRandSNCR.

•  IftheunitinstalledaSCRorSNCRaaer2005,thedatacollec$onperiodwasnarrowedtooneyearaaertheinstalla$onto2012.Notethatifthecontrolwasinstalledin2012,the2012ratewasused.

•  Ifaunitwasiden$fiedinERTACorIPMasinstallingacontrolinafutureyear,theemissionrateiden$fiedasindica$veofthatcontrolrunningin2018wasselected.Notethatifaunitwasiden$fiedaseitherrunningoraddingacontrolin2018,buthasperformedatalowerratethanthe2018rate,thenthelowerratewasused.

•  Areduc$onpercentagewascalculatedbydividingthe2018ozoneseasonemissionrateinIPM5.13bytheiden$fiedbestozoneseasonaverageemissionrate.

•  Applyingthatreduc$onpercentagetothe2018ozoneseasonemissionratewillreducethe2018ozoneseasonemissionratetotheunitslowestdemonstratedaverageozoneseasonemissionrate.Thisscenario,named3A,representsthebestratesandmassachievableinozoneseasonbasedondemonstratedperformancefromunitswithSCRandSNCRinstalled.

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LossBenefitof413TonsperDayScenario3A2018OzoneSeasonBenefit

-ReferenceCase2018OzoneSeasonNOxMass:175,684Tons-Scenario3A2018OzoneSeasonNOxMass:112,364.17Tons-OzoneSeasonBenefit:63,320Tons.Thisisequivalentto413tonsperday*Notethatthecolorscaleisdifferentfromthe2011/2018referencecase

ICIBoilerWorkgroup

• UsingEMFevaluatehowICIBoilerEmissionschangedfrom2007and2011,andes$matehowemissionswillchangein2018;

• PreliminaryresultsreleasedattheStakeholderMee$ngonSeptember10;

• Evalua$ngexis$ngstatelimits,andwhethernewlimitswouldbeappropriate

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DistributedandEmergencyGeneratorInventory

Iden$fiedtwoseparatebutrelatedgroupsofsourcesthatcontributetoemissionsonHEDDdays

•  Behindthemeterunits§  Emissionandloca$onsmaynotbeknownandmaynotbeintheinventory

§  HEDDWorkgrouplookingatunitsthatpar$cipateinthePJM,ISO-NE,andNY-ISOregion

§  HEDDWorkgrouplookingataddingemissionsto$mesofdaythattheseunitsrun-typicallylateaaernoontoearlyevening

•  SmallerEGUsnotinCAMDdatabase-Lessthan25MW§  Annualemissionsandloca$onknownandinthemodelinginventory

§ MDEworkingonimprovingopera$ngprofiles10

DistributedandEmergencyGeneratorInventory

• Workgroupdevelopingboundingemissionsforsensi$vityrun.Ques$onstobeansweredare:

1. Whatquan$tyofemissionsshouldbeaddedtothemodelruntorepresentHEDDunits?

2. Whereinthemodelingdomainshouldtheseemissionsbeadded?

3.  Duringwhat$meperiodsshouldtheseemissionsbeadded?

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BehindtheMeterInventory

• Subworkgrouplookingatbehindthemeterunits

•  Es$matetotalemissionsforeachISO(ISO-NE,NY-ISO,PJM)

•  Appor$onemissionstothecountylevel•  Assignemissionstomodelepisodedays•  Appor$ondailyemissionstohoursoftheday

• Expectini$alresultsattheAprilstakeholdermee$ng

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SmallEGUUnits<25MWTherehasbeeninterestinhowSMOKEprocessessmallelectricgenera$ngunitsandwhetherornotthemodelisgevngpeakdayemissionsright.

•  LookingatsmallEGUs<25MWthatprovidepowertothegrid.Theannualemissionsfortheseunitsareknown.Thisprojectdoesnotaddressbehind-the-metergenerators.

•  Thesesmallunitstypicallyoperateforlimitedperiodsof$me.Theyusuallyoperateduringhighelectricitydemandperiods(akapeakday)orwhenlargerunitsareofflineformaintenance.Theymayalsooperateat$meswhereitisnecessarytoensuregridreliability.

Largeunitsopera$ngprofilesaredevelopedfromCEMSdata,soweknowtheirprofilesarereasonablebutwhataboutthesmallerunits–thosewithoutCEMS?MDE’sgoalistodevelopatemporalprofileforcoal,oilandgas-firedelectricgenera$ngunits<25MWatEGUfacili$es.

•  Basedonwhatweknowabouttheirtypicalopera$onalpa2erns,profilesfortheseunitsshouldshowlimitedannualopera$on,buthighpeakdayopera$on.

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SmallEGUUnits<25MWStep1:Selectedunitsandiden$fiedtemporalprofilesassignedbySMOKE.Step2:Iden$fiedthe2011/2018temporalprofilesforpeakingEGUs>25MW(byregionandfueltype).Step3:AppliedthetemporalprofilesforlargepeakingEGUs(iden$fiedinstep2)tosmallEGUs<25MW(iden$fiedinstep1).

•  ComparedthedailyNOxmassallocatedbycurrentSMOKEprofilesforsmallEGUsvs.theMDE-developedprofiles.

•  Currentlyincorpora$ngtemporaliza$onintoaCMAQsensi$vityruntodetermineimpactonozone.

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HowManyUnits&HowMuchMass?Region Numberof

UnitsFuel 2011Annual

NOxMass(Tons)

MANEVU+VA 544 Coal N/A

Oil 726.02

Gas 307.80

MANEVU+VATotal 1,069.82

LADCO 864 Coal 5,216.64

Oil 715.61

Gas 1,188.16

LADCOTotal 7,120.41

SESARM 359 Coal 225.00

Oil 243.62

Gas 1,534.41

SESARMTotal 2,003.03

CENSARA 658 Coal 3,049.59

Oil 670.62

Gas 1,394.89

CENSARATotal 5,115.10

Total 2,425 Coal 8,491.23

Oil 2,355.87

Gas 4,425.26

GrandTotalNOxMass 15,272.36*

15,272TonsofNOxisnotasignificantamountofmasstobeconcernedabout.Thetop3NOxemi2ersin2011couldeasilyemitmoreNOxthanallofthe2,438unitsiden$fiedinthisanalysis.ButwherethatNOxmassisallocatedtemporallyisveryimportant.

Thepropor$onofemissiona2ributedtofueltypesvariesbyregion.Forexample,inSESARM,emissionsfromsmallgas-firedunitshavethelargestimpactandemissionsfromcoalandoil-firedunitsarenearlyequal.Conversely,inMANEVU+VAemissionsfromoil-firedunitshavethelargestimpactandemissionsfromgas-firedunitshavealesserimpact.

0.0000

1,000.0000

2,000.0000

3,000.0000

4,000.0000

5,000.0000

6,000.0000

MANEVU LADCO SESARM CENSARAAn

nualNOxMass(To

ns)

2011AnnualNOxMassnonERTACSmallEGUsForTemporal

Alloca>onbyMDE

Coal Oil Gas

*ThisNOxmassispreliminary.Subjecttochangeasstatesprovidefeedbackonlistofunits.

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

1/1 2/1 3/1 4/1 5/1 6/1 7/1 8/1 9/1 10/1 11/1 12/1

NOxMass(To

ns)

MANEVU+VAOilNon-CAMDEGUs2011DailyNOxEmissions

Oil<25MW(SMOKETemp) Oil<25MW(MDETemp)

*726Tonsfromoil-firednon-CAMDEGUsTheSMOKEtemporalprocesswill"smear"thatmassfairlyevenlyacross365days-approximately2.1tonsperday.TheMDEtemporalprocesswillallocatethatmasspropor$onallybasedontemporalprofilesdevelopedfromlargepeakingunits.

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

1/1 2/1 3/1 4/1 5/1 6/1 7/1 8/1 9/1 10/1 11/1 12/1

NOxMass(To

ns)

MANEVU+VAGasNon-CAMDEGUs2011DailyNOxEmissions

Gas<25MW(SMOKETemp) Gas<25MW(MDETemp)

*307Tonsfromgas-firednon-CAMDEGUsTheSMOKEtemporalprocesswill"smear"thatmassfairlyevenlyacross365days-approximately0.86tonsperday.TheMDEtemporalprocesswillallocatethatmasspropor$onallybasedontemporalprofilesdevelopedfromlargepeakingunits.

ConsumerProducts/AIM• Atthe2015AnnualMee$ng,OTCaskedEPAtoupdateitsAIMruleusingtheOTCModelRuleasastar$ngpoint

•  h2p://www.otcair.org/upload/Documents/Formal%20Ac$ons/Statement%20to%20EPA%20on%20AIM012.pdf

• Atthe2013AnnualMee$ng,OTCrequestedEPAtoadopttheOTCModelRulesforAIMandConsumerProductsasNa$onalRules.

•  h2p://www.otcair.org/upload/Documents/Formal%20Ac$ons/Statement_AIM.pdf

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VoluntaryProgram• OTC’sVoluntaryprogramproposestoallowstatestoclaimcredits,andcreateuniformstandards

• Thegoalistocreateavoluntaryprogrambywhichmanufacturerscer$fyspecificquan$tyofcompliantproductsarebeingdistributedinapar$cularstate.

• Thesecompliantproductswouldbeaccompaniedbyalabelingprogramforiden$fica$on

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OtherSASCommi2eeUpdatesRACTWorkgroup

•  Compilingandevalua$ngeachstatesNOxandVOClimitsforsourcecategories,aswellasreviewingCTG’s

VaporRecovery•  DelawareandMarylandhaveproposedregula$onforthe

StageIIprogram•  Con$nuetolookatwaystoimproveStageI

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Ques$ons?

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