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Proceedings of the International Symposium on Emerging Trends in Social Science Research (IS15Chennai Symposium) ISBN: 978-1-941505-23-6

Chennai-India, 3-5 April 2015 Paper ID: C509

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Panel Data Analysis of Population Growth and It Implication on

Economic Growth of Developing Countries

LABARAN HAMZA,

Department of Economics,

SRM University,

Chennai, India.

Email: [email protected] _____________________________________________________________________

Abstract

Economists have often neglected the impact of fundamental demographic processes on

economic growth. Bloom and Canning (2001) are among the few who explore the effect of the

demographic transition on economic growth. As such the study investigated the effects of

population dynamic on the economic growth of thirty developing countries from Africa, Asia,

and Latin America illustrating both orthodox and heterodox theories for the period of

fourteen years by specifically determining the effects of birth rate, death rate, and migration

on the economic growth. To this aim, it is possible to compare the population growth of each

member and the whole group using paned data co-integration and causality. The study used

annual secondary data on birth rate, death rate, as well as migration from World

Development Indicators (WDI), and World Bank. The data were analysed using Linear Panel

Data Regression Analysis of Pooled, Fixed Effect (LSDV), and Random Effect (ECM)

econometrics techniques. The results showed that population growth and dynamism has a

significant impact on economic growth of developing countries. As such, fiscal and monetary

policy tools for the last three decades should not be seen as the utmost instruments of

achieving target growth in developing countries, but should be combined with certain

population policy instruments in stimulating economic growth especially in the higher birth

rate economies such as Niger, Angola, Iraq, etc.

Key words: Panel Co-integration, Fixed/Random Effect, Economic growth

mailto:[email protected]




1. Introduction

The implications of population either in terms of size or composition for change,

development and the quality of life has long and widely be debated by economists,

demographer and some other concerned disciplines. Theoretically, there are three alternative

views regarding population-economic growth nexus (Hudson, 1988; and Blanchet, 1991).

“Population pessimists” - a popular view which belongs to the Malthusian or Orthodox

school- believe that rapid population growth is problematic because it tends to overwhelm any

induced response by technological progress and capital accumulation (Hoover, 1958; Ehrlich,

1968; and Coale and Hoover, 1958). “Population optimists” on the other hand are of the view

that rapid population growth allows economies of scale to be captured and promotes

technological and institutional innovation (Boserup E, 1981; Simon, 1981; Kuznets, 1967).

Later research defeats both views as “population neutralists” contend that population growth

in isolation from other factors has neither a significant positive nor a significant negative

impact on economic growth (Bloom and Freeman, 1986; Kelley, 1988). However, going by

what is bedevilling the developing countries today there is no doubt that Malthus has been

vindicated because among other implications, rapid population growth will require that

government spend more on provision of education, security, health, shelter and other social

facilities. The fact that the different theories predict different causal mechanisms shows that

there are gaps yet to be filled with empirical evidence. Therefore, the understanding of

population-growth nexus has remained one of the oldest problems in economics.

While some developing countries of the world had fertility and mortality rates that were

lower than those in developed nations, some including many in sub-Saharan Africa, were

stuck in high fertility/low-growth traps, and others such as Niger, Angola etc. had hit speed

bumps on the road toward longer, healthier lives (Mantu, 2001). In most of the poor

developing countries, a sharp drop in death rates has not been accompanied by a

corresponding fall in birth rates. The explosive growth of the human population in the world

in the nineteenth and twentieth century was the result of a historically unprecedented decline

in the rate of mortality, and a relatively stable fertility rate. The East Asian nations are among

the nations of the world that have experienced the greatest success in "reaping" the

demographic dividend produced by reduced mortality and fertility rates as a result of strong

policy environment. Latin America has undergone a fairly sharp demographic transition, but

because of a weak policy environment it has not been able to capitalize on it. The

demographic transitions in South, Central and Southeast Asia started later and have been less

pronounced than that in East Asia. The Middle East and North Africa are still in the early

phases of the demographic transition, while indeed many parts of sub-Saharan Africa have




seen almost no decrease in traditionally high fertility rates (Rand Population Matters project,

2002).

The first part of this research aims to provide a summary of the alternative theoretical

frameworks that deal with population and its impact on economic growth of

developing countries. The latter parts present an econometric analysis of population and

economic growth in the thirty developing countries from the cross-section of Asia, Africa,

and Latin America for the period of fourteen years.

Unlike in the previous researches where pure time series econometrics was used in the

study of short and long-run impact of population growth parameters on economic growth. The

present research resort to Panel Data econometrics analysis, so that both the time and space

dimensions and effect are captured between the subjects of the study by means of traditional

and new theoretical perspectives of panel data.

This study therefore aims to measure the impact of the population on the economic

growth of developing countries and see how these variables move together both in the short

and long-run. To this end, it is possible to compare these impacts for each member and the

whole group using panel data co-integration method.

2. Literature Review

While Dyson (2010) contends that mortality decline is the chief cause of economic

development, McKeown (1976) argues that the direction of causality should be reversed, i.e.,

it is the improvement in the standard of living that results in lower death rates. Easterlin

(1996) and Schofield and Reher (1991) also show that the dire living conditions that came

with the industrial revolution and modern economic growth in cities of Europe during the

nineteenth century might have raised mortality rates. On the other hand, evidence from

contemporary developing economies tends to show that it is mortality decline that leads to

economic growth, as it increases investment in both physical and human capital via increased

savings rates and education (see, for instance Bloom and Canning (2001) and Kalemli-Ozcan

(2002). Furthermore, mortality tends to fall as a result of declines in death rates from

infectious diseases. Declines in these diseases tend to bring about an improvement in the

nutritional status of children which in turn leads to a fitter future labour force. In fact, Strauss

and Thomas (1998) show that healthier workers tend to be more productive. In pre-

transitional societies, relatively rapid population growth almost always resulted in a fall in the

standard of living due to the rather severe limits to the technical progress in agriculture or to

the fixed supply of land, as pointed out by Malthus (1798; 1830 [1970]). This prompts Clark

(2007) to state that income levels before the nineteenth century could not escape the

Malthusian equilibrium due to the very low rate of technological advance in all economies.




Some theories suggest that more rapid population growth should be bad for economic

performance because with a larger population each worker will have less productive factors,

both non-accumulated and accumulated, to work with. Other theories suggest that greater

population growth will lead to greater productivity either by inducing innovation, producing

innovation, or through creating greater economies of scale, specialization or agglomeration

(Boserup, 1981, Simon, 1992, Kremer, 1993). Robert Cassen's (1994) recent summary of the

state of the art in research on Population and development, states nicely the conventional

wisdom of contrasting negative factor accumulation effects versus possibly positive

productivity effects: What about the effect of population on per capita income? Here simple

economics suggests that the effect is probably negative. Unless population exerts a strong

positive influence on capital formation and the suggestion that it does is a minority opinion-

the more people there are, and the less capital there is per person; as a result even though total

output may be larger with a bigger population, output per person is smaller. There are

however, three arguments against this: larger population may generate economies of scale;

they may induce favourable technological change; and when population is growing, the

average age of the labour force will be younger, which may have beneficial productivity

effects. The fact that the different theories predict a different causal mechanism shows that

there is a gap yet to be filled with empirical evidence across countries. Between 1950 and

1995, the world's population grew from 2.5 billion to 5.7 billion people, and is expected to

grow by another 4 billion people over the next 50 years. There has been a long-standing

debate on the effects that such population growth can have on economic development and

growth of countries. This debate is generally couched in the distinctions made by ‘population

optimists' and by ‘population pessimists'. Population optimists believe that increases in

population increase the incentives for the invention of new technologies and the diffusion of

existing ones (Boserup 1981). They also point out that larger population allow for economies

of scale both in production and in consumption (Kuznets 1966, Simon 1977). Population

pessimists, on the other hand, believe that the burden placed on the resources of an economy

by an increasing population is a hindrance to economic development. The original

‘Malthusian' perspective focused on agricultural resource constraints, while later economic

models were based on the capital to labour ratio: increases in population meant that there was

less capital per person, thereby reducing the productivity of labour, such as in the neoclassical

model discussed above. Empirical studies, which have used cross-country data to try and

evaluate these claims, however found little evidence to support either argument. Once the

effects of initial income, education, and other determinants of growth are taken into account,

population growth is found to have a negligible effect on growth of GDP (Bloom and

Freeman 1986). This gave rise to the "population neutralist" or "revisionist" perspective,




which held that demography, was not a significant factor in the economic growth process.

This view was in part responsible for the tenuous position population variables have recently

occupied in studies of economic growth. More recent research, however, has pointed out that

it is not sufficient to take into account simply the growth in population when attempting to

evaluate the role-played by demography, as demographic effects are significantly more

complex. Kelley and Schmidt (1995) show that the composition of population growth is an

important factor. For example, if population growth occurs mainly through mortality declines

that affect infants and children disproportionately (as is well known to be the case in high

mortality populations), the effect on age structure will be different than if population growth

occurs due to migration, which generally selects for working age people.

In all the foregoing studies, no attempt was made to analyse the impact of population

changes, especially demographic behaviour on economic growth at panel, and the resultant

implications on growth.

3. Methodology Overview

According to the nature of the data, which are a mixture (combination) of the independent

and dependent variables related to developing countries in the years from 1985 to 2014,

model estimation was done based on panel co-integration method which is a new approach in

econometrics and the traditional approaches that’s fixed and random effect. Panel data is a

method to integrate time series and cross-section data where due to corporate (joint)

consideration of the variable changes in each cross-section and time, all available data are

used. Nowadays, in addition to the traditional attitude of panel data econometrics, there exist

new insights in this regard.

3.1. New Insights in Panel Econometrics

Panel Time Series (PTS) or unstable (non-stationary) panel econometrics was proposed as

an important factor in the economic development with a new approach in the early '90s.

Although there are not many texts on this issue and the concepts used in this method are

theoretical and there is not much evidence in this regard, using this method is much simpler

than the traditional one. In this method, the panel data are firstly divided from the viewpoint

of priority of significance in time or sections and then the applicable models are considered

for each one.

From the viewpoint of new theory of macro panels, two issues are raised:

i). Mixed regressions (Pooled) in which the parameter homogeneity is rejected. In other

words, the regression is heterogeneous (Pesaran & Smith, 1995).

ii). Non-stationary, spurious regressions and co-integration




• Time series fully revised estimate techniques have been added to the fixed effect

and random effect methods which are used in within-group dependence, autocorrelation and

heterosk elasticity in interruption terms.

• There exist several tests for unit root test and panel co-integration test which are

addressed in the following sections.

3.2. Old Views on Panel Econometrics

In this attitude, according to the main model of the panel data, the model and its

estimators are recognized (identified) using the various tests. At the end, if the regression

slope(gradient) is fixed (constant) at each section and the fixed terms changes from one

section to another or in other words if time effect is not significant and just there is a

significant difference between various sections, and coefficients of the sections do not change

with time changes, the model is fixed effect. While, in the unilateral (one-way) fixed effect

model, the slopes are constant but the constant terms are different in different times and in

fixed (constant) two-way effect model, the slope of the functions is constant in each section

but the constant term (abscissa) will vary with time and with the section. Seemingly unrelated

regression (SUR) is another type of fixed effect model in which the constant terms and the

slope of the regressions are different. But if the variables have been selected randomly, and

there is no correlation between explanatory variables and correlation errors, to obtain efficient

and consistent estimates, the random effects model can be used.

However, the purpose and objective of this research is to determine how the demographic

structure and the economics growth of developing countries are related and affect one another

in the short or long-run. As such relevant variables that go into the model are: Real Gross

domestic Product (RGDP) which indicates a country’s economic performance over time, the

birth rate, death rate both in thousand per persons, and the net migration. Note that variables

which were not in rate were logged.

3.3. Data Sources

The study used annual secondary data of real GDP, birth rate, death rate, and net

migration from World Development Indicators (WDI); World Bank, Annual Abstract of

Statistics by National Bureau of Statistics(NBS). The period of the study was 2001 to 2014.

3.4. Model Specifications

The model functional form can be express as

LGDPit=α+β1BRit+β2DRit+β3NMigit+Uit …(1)

Where L= Logarithm

RGDPit = Real GDP

α= intercept

BRit = Birth rate in thousand




DRit = Death rate in thousand

NMigit = Net Migration

Uit = Panel error term

A panel data regression differs from a regular time-series or cross-section regression in that it

has a double subscript on its variables, i.e.

i= 1, 2, 3 …, 30 Panel Identification (Countries)

t= 1, 2, 3… 30 Time period

3.5. Justification for the Variable Selected

A higher GDP (Per Capita) will result in a higher birth rate, and a lower death rate.

Background Information GDP - "Gross Domestic Product" - Total market value of all

finished goods and services produced in a year, as well as investments, government spending,

and exports minus imports. GDP (Per Capita) - Gross Domestic Product divided by

Population. Birth Rate is the average number of births per 1000 persons. Death rate is the

average number of deaths per 1000 persons, whereas bilateral causality existed between GDP

and migration.

4. Empirical Results

This chapter systematically tests whether the birth rate, death rate, and migration has a

negative effect on economic growth. We first provide the basic results and then conduct some

diagnostic tests.

4.1 Panel Unit Root Test

The power of Panel unit root test is by far more than the same test in time series, but

considering the point that there is a possibility of conflict in various unit root tests, all tests

have been considered. In general, the usual unit roots tests, such as Dickey- Fuller (DF),

Augmented Dickey -Fuller (ADF) and Phillips - Perron (PP), which are used for a time series,

are of low test power and have a bias towards accepting null hypothesis. When the sample

size is small (n<50), it becomes more serious (worse). One of the methods that have been

proposed to solve this problem is to use panel data to increase the sample size and the unit

root test in panel data.

Table 1: Panel Unit Root Test (Levin-Lin-Chu)

Variables Model with intercept Model with intercept and trend

Lags Oder of

Integration t-statistic t-critical t-statistic t-critical

Log GDP -36891* -4.6466 -4.3239*** -4.8883 2 I(1)

BR -3.6891*** -5.2916 -4.3239** -5.6673 2 I(1)

DR -3.6891*** -5.9752 -4..3239*** -5.8652 2 I(1)




NMig -3.6891*** -5.6659 -4.3239*** -5.5528 2 I(1)

Sources: Stata Version 11.

Table 2: Panel Unit Root Test (Im-Pesaran-Shin)

Variables Model with intercept Model with intercept and trend

Lags Oder of

Integration t-statistic t-critical t-statistic t-critical

Log GDP -3.6891*** -4.6859 -4.3239*** -4.8974 2 I(1)

BR -3.6891*** -5.2311 -4.3239*** -5.6621 2 I(1)

DR -3.6891** -5.9754 -4.3239* -5.8652 2 I(1)

NMig -3.6891* -5.7416 -4.3239*** -5.6164 2 I(1)


Note: (*), (**), (***) indicates 1%, 5% and 10% level respectively.

According to the results of Table1 and 2, the tests emphasize the existence of the unit root i.e.

they are non-stationary at level, but after taking the first difference they become stationary.

4.2 Panel Co-integration Test

In co-integration analyses, long-term economic relations are tested and estimated. If an

economic theory is correct, a special set of variables specified by the theory are linked

together in the long run. In addition, the economic theory just specifies the relations as static

(long-term) and the does not provide information on the short-term dynamics among the

variables.

Table 3: Results of Pedroni Co-integration Test

Test Result without intercept

Within Group

𝛾 𝑃𝑎𝑛𝑒𝑙 –𝑆𝑡𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑠𝑡𝑖𝑐

Test Result 0.765

P-Value 0.046

Panel Phillips - Perron type P –Statistic

Test Result -0.699

P-Value 0.064

Panel Phillips - Perron type t –Statistic

Test Result -1.428

P-Value 0.000

Augmented Dickey - Fuller (ADF) Type t-Statistic

Test Result -1.123

P-Value 0.230

Between

Groups

Group Phillips - Perron Type p- Statistic

Test Result -0.315

P-Value 0.004

Group Phillips - Perron t- Statistic

Test Result -2.175

P-Value 0.000

Group ADF Type t- Statistic

Test Result -2.041

P-Value 0.002

Kao ADF Type t- Statistic Test Result -7.560




co-integration

test

P-Value 0.000


H0: There is no co-integration in heterogeneous panels

H1: there is one co-integration in heterogeneous panel

According to the results of Pedroni co-integration tests above, most test statistics (in each

case, at least six statistics) strongly reject the null hypothesis of no co-integration vector for

all variables. Besides, the result of Kao co-integration test also rejects the lack of co-

integration relationship among the model variables at 5 per-cent level.

4.3. Granger Causality Test Results

Therefore, if the variables are found to be co-integrated as in the case above, we can

specify an error correction model and estimate using standard methods and diagnostic test.

The co-integration tested above indicates that causality existed between the four variables

i.e. GDP, Birth rate, Death rate and Net migration but it fails to show us the direction of the

causal relationship.

Engel and Granger suggested that if co-integration existed between two or more variables

in the long-run, then, there must be either unidirectional or bi directional Granger-Causality

between these variable.

Engle and Granger illustrated that the co-integrating variables can be represented by ECM

(Error Correction Model) representation. In other words, according to Granger, if there is

evidence of co-integration between two or more variables, then a valid error correction model

should also exist between them.

As GDP, Birth rate, Death rate, and Migration are co-integrated, a ECM (error correction

model) representation could have the table below.

Table 4: Granger Causality Test Result for the Long-run

Directions ECT Coefficient Standard Error t-statistic P-Value Decisions

BR→LnGDP

LnGDP→BR

ECT1t-1

ECT2t-1

-0.0383

-0.2142

0.2424

0.0892

0.8536

-2.4004

0.4100

0.0335

Do not reject H0

Reject H0

DR→LnGDP

LnGDP→DR

ECT3t-1

ECT4t-1

0.1069

-0.4995

0.1716

0.1391

0.6231

-3.6414

0.5449

0.0034

Do not reject Ho

Reject H0

Mig→LnGDP

LnGDP→Mig

ECT5t-1

ECT6t-1

-0.3920

-0.3547

0.1406

0.3637

-2.7885

-0.9754

0.0164

0.3486

Reject H0

Do not reject H0

Source: Author’s Computation Using stata version 9.




Table 5: Granger Causality Test Result for the Short-run

Directions of Causality F-statistic (F) Chi-square (χ2) P-Value Decisions

BR→LnGDP

LnGDP→BR

0.7919

3.1094

3.9595

15.5474

0.5553

0.0083

Do not reject H0

Reject H0

DR→LnGDP

LnGDP→DR

0.7097

2.4961

3.5489

12.4807

0.6160

0.0288

Do not reject H0

Reject H0

Mig→LnGDP

Mig→LnGDP

1.3961

0.2021

6.9808

1.0105

0.2221

0.9617

Do not reject H0

Do not reject H0

Source: Author’s Computation Using stata version 9.

Table 6: Granger Causality Test Result for the Short and Long-run

Direction Short-run Causality Long-run Causality

BR→GDP

GDP→BR

No causality

There is causality

No causality

There is causality

DR→GDP

GDP→DR

No causality

There is causality

No causality

There is causality

NMig→GDP

GDP→NMig

No causality

No causality

There is causality

No causality

Check appendix table 1&2 for the computation

From the above table, we accept the null hypothesis of long-run causality running from

the independent variable to dependent variable if and only if the coefficient of the lagged

Error Correction Term ECTt-j is negative and statistically significant, and we do not reject the

null hypothesis otherwise.

The result has shown that, the birthrate has no cause unto the GDP both in the short-run

and long-run, but there is both short-run and long-run causality running from the GDP to

birthrate. This shows a unidirectional causality, and it hold true that higher economic growth

is among the significant factors leading to higher birthrate in the developing countries

particularly Sub-Saharan Africans.

The result also shown that, the death-rate has no cause unto the GDP both in the short and

long-run and this is hold true in the economic theory, and confirming the previous researches

in the same field. On the other hand, there is short and long-run causality running from GDP

to death-rate indicating a unidirectional causality. Meaning that higher economic growth and

increase in income per head among the citizens does not automatically reflect the falls in the

death-rate rather aggravate it. This prevalence or phenomenon in most developing economies

could be attributed to uneven distribution and allocation of increasing income realized from




the growth in the provision of heath and healthcare facilities, and some elements of corruption

perpetuated.

Moreover, the result has shown a long-run unidirectional causality running from the

migration to the GDP, and the economic theory (migration) also holds true. The influxes of

skilled labor, capital and Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) have positive long-run effect onto

the GDP not in the short-run. .

4.4. Estimation from the Old Theoretical Perspective

As it’s clearly stated, the research would employ both the new (Co-integration) method,

as well as the old method of panel estimation (fixed/random effect) model.

In order to estimate model from the old theoretical perspective, if Chow test result

indicates that the model is panel, to determine the fixed (constant) and random effects,

Hauseman test must be used. According to Chow and Hausman test results, the model is of

panel type with random effects.

Table 7: Results of Diagnostic Panel Tests

Test P-value Statistics Results

Chow 0.0000 13.16 panel

Hausman 0.5330 2.032 random effect

4.5. Random Effect Model Estimation Result

Table 8: Random Effect Model Estimation Result

Log GDP Coefficient Standard Error t-statistics P >|t|

Birth rate -0.0861 0.0037 -22.84 0.0000

Death rate -1.0004 0.0002 -1.47 0.3329

Net Migration -1.47e-08 3.47e-08 -0.41 0.0421

Constant 6.50057 0.2199 29.55 0.0000

Probability >F R2 Within R2 Between R2 Overall Wald Chi

0.0000 0.674 0.681 0.795 490.02

Source: Stata Version 9

The results of the above table shows that all model estimate coefficients are significant

with the highest level of confidence, and are in line with the research expectations with the

exception of the death rate which is not statistically significance in explaining the GDP in

most developing countries. So, that a one per-cent increase in Birth-rate and one per-cent

increase in the Net migration leads respectively to a -0.0861 per cent and a -1.47e-08 per cent

decrease in the log of GDP.




5. Summary Conclusion and Recommendation

5.1 summary and conclusion

Pure time series econometrics tools were used by previous researches in explaining the

time dimensions of the implications of the rate of population growth with respect to birth rate,

death rate and net migration on GDP growth of most developing nations. However, the

present research as stated earlier has resort to panel data econometric analysis so as to take in

to account both the time as well as the size or space dimensions of these implications.

The main objective of this study is to estimate by using an econometric model of panel

data from a sample of thirty developing countries for the period of fourteen years to

empirically analyse the impact of several dimensions of the demographic transition on per

capita GDP growth. We observe that the results are more robust when interactive variables of

random effect are used to estimate the model. We are able to draw the following conclusions:

1. Based on the research findings, causality test has been used, fixed and random

effect of GDP of developing countries relative to birth rate, death rate, and

migration are respectively -0.1073, 0.0006, -1.81e-0762 and -0.0854, -1.0004, -

1.29e-08

2. We find that the birth rate has a negative impact on economic growth, and this

finding is robust even after we control for a number of demographic and

institutional variables. Our finding provides some new evidence in the developing

countries that shows the negative causal effect of population on economic growth

in both the short and long-run, as asserted by Malthus.

3. The effect of population growth on per capita GDP growth is linear and

everywhere negative. It is stronger when interaction terms are included in the

statistical model.

4. The unilateral causality running from GDP to death rate both in the short and

long-run shows that despite the tremendous effort made by various government

of developing countries for the last three decade to reduce the death rate, shows

no evidences of the decline in the death rate in many developing countries.

5. The level of emigration growth has no statistically significant impact or causality

on per capita GDP growth.

6. The panel data econometrics estimation is more powerful in separating the

individual effects within, between and overall effect of the group or panel than

the pure time series econometrics which provides the time effect only.




5.2 Policy Recommendations

Based on the major and minor findings of this research, however, I recommend the following

1. Governments in developing countries can influence population growth in order to

stimulate growth. China provides a clear example by suddenly introducing a

collection of highly coercive methods to reduce the total birth rate reduction

policy from about 5.8 to 2.2 births per woman between 1970 and 1980, whereas

India policy on the fertility rate rather than the birth rate from about 6.7 to 4.1 per

woman, and these policies were put in to social awareness campaign in many

other developing countries.

2. Fiscal and monetary policy should not be seen as the utmost instruments of

achieving target growth in developing countries, but should be combined with

population policy instrument especially in the high birth rate economies such as

Niger, Angola, Iraq, etc.

3. There is the need for the full participation in global market by removing the

import impediments, and enactment of sound trade policies and security so as to

attract influx of both physical and human capital, because of the exist a long-run

causality running from the net migration and GDP not on the other way round.

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