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Pareto World Wide Offshore AS
2nd quarter report 2015
Link: http://paretosec.com/ppim-reports.php
Executive Summary
Market Development
The oil price has exhibited significant volatility
with a 40% rebound from the winter low,
followed by a near 20% decline in the past
month. Expectations of a gradual rebalancing of
the oil market during H2’15 have been quashed
by rising OPEC production and fears of additional
export volumes from Iran in the next years.
OPEC is definitely not abandoning its strategy of
maximizing market share at the expense of price
anytime soon.
Hence, it appears that the oil price will be capped
at the marginal cost of US tight oil producers for
the foreseeable future (USD 60-65/b), until
global inventories have been worked down to a
more normal level.
Thus, there is less reason to expect a recovery in
global E&P spending next year and the oil service
markets are likely to remain depressed. Long
term contracts at past rate levels provide some
cushion, but many are being terminated by their
clients. New contracts are often barely able to
cover operating expenses. Asset valuations are
continuing to decline, putting financial covenants
at risk and the banks are more restrictive. We
expect these conditions to persist through 2015
and 2016, making asset realizations difficult to
achieve at sensible prices. Rather, the main task
is to preserve underlying values and to position
the portfolio for a recovery in the next 3-4 years.
Portfolio
PWWO did not make any project realizations
during the second quarter. The portfolio has
relatively low contract coverage and is thus
exposed to the weak market conditions in the
offshore oil services markets. The portfolio is
heavily weighted towards two projects, which
make up 60% of the value and where it is
essential to be able to preserve the values while
waiting for improvements in the markets.
We are pleased to report that TOT Drilling’s
appeal to the High Courts regarding the slot fee
on the Songa Eclipse has been rejected. As a
result, the ruling from the Oslo Court of Appeals
(Lagmannsretten) stands and PWWO is finally
able to close the project after nearly four years of
legal battle in the courts. The ruling has a
positive impact on NAV in excess of NOK 2 per
share, as PWWO had previously made an
allocation for a potential negative outcome.
The way forward
The term of PWWO was extended to July 2019 at
the Annual General Meeting in June 2015. This
was in recognition that it is exceedingly difficult
to realize meaningful value in the current
markets, particularly with the portfolio so skewed
towards two large investments.
In connection with the extension, the Fund
manager has agreed to a change in the
management fees, which will imply a 50%-60%
reduction in the annual management fee. The
change will be the same for investors that are
exposed to PWWO through POK. Going forward,
the fees will be fixed at a declining profile, with
zero management fee payable from 2019. There
is a small incentive fee to encourage the Fund
manager to realize the portfolio as quickly as
possible.
PWWO will refrain from investing further for the
remainder of its lifetime, save for follow-up
investments in existing projects, if required.
The offshore oil services markets have weakened substantially so far this year, with the impact seen
through lower day rates, lower utilization and reduced asset valuations. We expect a difficult 2015 and
2016, in which investors should not expect meaningful dividend distributions and where it will be hard
to make good project realizations. As a result, the shareholders have approved an extension of the
Fund until July 2019, while the Fund manager has agreed to reduce the management fees during the
extension period. The Fund is set to report its next NAV at 31st December this year.
NAV PWWO NOK 93/share NAV POK NOK 43/share
(as of 30 June 2015)
Portfolio News
BassDrill Alpha Ltd
The contract with Total was terminated at the end of
May against a cancellation fee. The rig is now warm
stacked offshore Congo. New employment is being
sought for the rig and there is a reasonable chance that
it will be back working around the turn of the year. The
project is well capitalized and should be able to
weather a period of unemployment for the next 9-12
months.
Neptune Subsea IS
One of the vessels is still employed until October ’15 at
a reasonable rate, while the other has just mobilized
for a short term job in Angola. The owners injected at
total of USD 5m in April to boost working capital and
service debt. The process to enforce the company’s
rights versus the charterer continues and has priority,
although the bankruptcy estate has proven less
cooperative than one might have hoped. It is expected
that another capital call will come during H2’15 to fund
debt service in the project.
Vestland Seismic IS
The vessel M/V Vikland is still idle and there have been
no material developments regarding a new charter or a
sale. All debt has been repaid and the project is 100%
equity. The seismic market is very weak and it will take
time to secure employment for the vessel. Alternative
markets are also being explored.
Master & Commander IS
Charter hire is paid punctually, while the seismic
market is weak. Both counterparts are in reasonably
good shape. The vessel valuations have been lowered,
which has a negative impact on the residual value
expectations.
Asian Offshore III IS
The average day rate for the six vessels was $ 7,100/d
during Q2’15, down 6% from the preceding quarter.
The receivables collection issue is shared with its pool
partners (including AO I), with an additional liquidity
drag from the ongoing drydocking program. Further
capital calls have been avoided in Q2, but it will be a
close call for the rest of the year. The difficult markets
is putting the integration process involving AO III and
its pool partners AO I and ACS at risk, despite some
progress.
Iceman IS
The vessel has enjoyed good utilization during Q2’15,
resulting in vessel revenue almost double that of the
preceding quarter. The outlook for the remainder of the
year is highly uncertain and further capital calls to
boost working capital should not be excluded.
Songa Eclipse
TOT Drilling’s appeal to the High Courts regarding the
slot fee on the Songa Eclipse has been rejected. As a
result, the ruling from the Oslo Court of Appeals
(Lagmannsretten) stands and PWWO is finally able to
close the project after nearly four years of legal battle
in the courts fighting a claim of roughly USD 5m. The
ruling has a positive impact on NAV in excess of NOK 2
per share, as PWWO had previously made an allocation
for a potential negative outcome.
Project sales
PWWO has not made any divestments during Q2’15.
Payments to and from projects
During Q2’15, PWWO received NOK 0.5m in payments
from projects. During the quarter PWWO had to inject a
total of NOK 13m of equity into two more projects
(Iceman and Neptune Subsea) to support the projects
due to the adverse market conditions.
PWWO is invested in a broad range of offshore projects, which implies a diversification
across different asset types and market segments. This section provides an update on the
quarter’s most important news flow related to the underlying investments.
Spot/Asset Play
84%
Timecharter
0%
Bareboat
16%
Charterparty Distribution based on NAV+commited
PSV/AHTS (Asia)
19%
PSV/AHTS
(Europe)
7%
Subsea
33%
Seismic
15%
Tender Rig
26%
Segment Distribution based on NAV+commited
Swiber
68%
CGG
17%
Bourbon
8%
Fairfield Nodal
6%
Hallin
1%
Charter hire backlog by counterpart
Project / company Segment Contract Charterparty ChartererProportion
of NAV
Neptune Subsea IS Subsea Spot/Asset play 31.1 %
Bassdrill Alpha Ltd Tender Rig Spot/Asset play Total / CNR 31.7 %
Vestland Seismic IS Seismic Spot/Asset play Albatross Shipping Ltd. 10.2 %
Bukhit Timah Offshore DIS PSV/AHTS (Asia) Jul-20 Bareboat Swiber Offshore Marine Pte 9.0 %
Asian Offshore III IS PSV/AHTS (Asia) Spot/Asset play 8.7 %
Iceman IS PSV/AHTS (Europe) Spot/Asset play 3.8 %
Master and Commander IS Seismic Aug-18 Bareboat CGG/Fairfield Nodal 3.5 %
3B Offshore IS PSV/AHTS (Europe) Nov-17 Bareboat Bourbon 2.1 %
Portfolio
Investments and capital
PWWO’s portfolio consists of 8 projects which owns
stakes in 19 units. The average contract length is 0.6
years and the contract coverage is 16%.
The gross nominal value of the contract backlog is
roughly NOK 86m. The backlog is primarily made up
by two solid counterparts.
PWWO had a cash holding of NOK 33m as of 30 June
2015. There may be additional capital calls in in the
coming quarters, so cash is being preserved to be in a
position to follow up such calls.
The life cycle of PWWO has been extended through 30
June 2019.
The characteristics of the portfolio has changed drastically in the past year months due to the charterer
default in Neptune Subsea and the termination of BassDrill Alpha’s contract. Contract coverage has
dropped to 15% and the weighted average charter length is only 0.6 years. Hence, the portfolio risk
has increased meaningfully and there will be less visibility on incoming cash flows than before.
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
240PWWO - NAV development
NAV per share
NAV per share (dividend adjusted)
Net Asset Value Development (PWWO)
NAV development
In USD, the value of PWWO declined 4% during
H1’15. Adjusted for the positive impact of the Songa
Eclipse claim the value was down 6% in USD. A
stronger USD vs NOK resulted in NAV ending up at
NOK 93 per share at the end of Q2’15, basically flat
for the year.
PWWO makes semi-annual NAV calculations.
Accordingly, the next NAV will be published as of
31.12.2015 and will be reported to investors in the
report for the fourth quarter 2015.
NAV is down 21% since inception in 2007. This poor
return reflects the cyclical timing of PWWO’s
inception, which started investing at the peak of the
previous cycle, just as we headed straight into the
2008 financial crisis. This is reflected in the fact that
oil service stocks on the Oslo Stock Exchange are
down 43% in the same period. That being said, the
performance since the bottom has been reasonably
good with NAV rising 65% since the end of 2009.
This reflects the intense work to turn around
troublesome projects with exit and contract
opportunities having improved along with better
markets, as well as a series of good project exits in
the past year. The performance of the past two
years is significantly better than relevant sector
comparisons.
Direct yield
A total of NOK 66 per share (33% of par value) has
been paid out during the past two and a half years,
of which NOK 17.50 came during 2014. All
distributions have been repayments of paid in
capital. Further distributions of capital cannot be
expected until further project realizations.
Net asset value was flat during H1’15. The stronger USD vs NOK has had positive impact of 4%, while
the conclusion of the Songa Eclipse claim has added another 2%. Adjusted for this, the NAV was down
roughly 6% during H1’15 as all projects have experienced a mark-down in value in line with the
deteriorating market conditions and lower contract coverage.
Last 6 mths Last 12 mths Last 24 mths Since inception
PWWO 0.3% 3.9% 8.1% -20.8 %
Oslo Stock Exchange 9.2% 1.8% 34.2% 30.4%
Offshore Index * -4.0% -45.4% -40.1% -42.6%
* Based on OSE101010 Energy Equipment & Service
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120 POK - NAV developmentNAV per share NAV per share (dividend adjusted)
Net Asset Value Development (POK)
NAV development
NAV as of 30.06.2015 was NOK 42.6, down 0.8% on
the previous NAV as of 31.12.2014 and up 1.2% for
the past year, both adjusted for the repayments of
capital made to shareholders.
Direct yield
NOK 33.20 per share has been paid out to POK
shareholders during the past two and a half years. All
distributions have been repayments of paid in capital.
Further distributions of capital cannot be expected until
further project realizations.
NAV in the feeder company Pareto Offshorekapital ASA («POK») declined by 0.8% during H1’15, but is
up by 1.2% in the past 12 months. POK currently has more than 1,600 shareholders and the company
acts as the main marketplace for second hand transactions for small, non-institutional investors.
Last 6 mths Last 12 mths Last 24 mths Since inception
POK -0.8% 1.2% 5.4% -24.2 %
Oslo Stock Exchange 9.2% 1.8% 34.2% 30.4%
Offshore Index * -4.0% -45.4% -40.1% -42.6%
* Based on OSE101010 Energy Equipment & Service
Second Hand Market and Share Liquidity
POK
As of 30 June 2015 POK had 5.3m shares outstanding.
The last trading price in POK was NOK 175 per share
(11 August 2015) and the previous five trades are
displayed in the table below. Second hand prices have
been dropping in line with a weaker market outlook for
oil services, with the discount to NAV widening to 58%,
as illustrated below (red dots). Investors who wish to
buy or sell shares should contact their advisors.
As of 30 June 2015 PWWO had 4.37m shares outstanding. Pareto Securities AS (”PSec”) strives to
facilitate an active second hand market for shares. The last trading price in PWWO was NOK 62 per
share (29 October 2014). Investors who wish to buy or sell shares should contact their advisors or
alternatively PSec directly.
Date Share price No. of shares Volume (NOK)
19/06/15 15.0 2,941 44,115
19/06/15 15.0 2,000 30,000
01/07/15 15.0 1,000 15,000
11/08/15 17.5 980 17,150
11/08/15 17.5 6,862 120,085
Number of trades since startup: 599
Volume traded since startup (NOK): 93,648,643
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
5,000
0
25
50
75
100
125
150
Volu
me (
Thousand N
OK)
Price p
er
share
Pareto Offshorekapital AS - Second Hand Trades
Volume traded
Nav per share
NAV per share (dividend adjusted)
Second hand price per share
The offshore oil services market
The US re-balancing act
The sharp drop in the oil price has driven through an
unprecedented decline in US onshore drilling activity
and it seems to continue at a level roughly half of the
levels seen prior to the oil price collapse. We have
finally starting to see US onshore production starting
to fall, with decline rates slowly increasing.
At the same time, US oil demand is booming in
response to the lower prices. The latest reports from
the IEA indicating that US oil demand is up by 0.6-
0.7mb/d from a year ago. This means that the US
markets are heading into an inventory correction
phase that will continue to strengthen and provide a
positive driver for oil prices.
The bearish news are found outside of the US
OPEC production has increased by nearly 1.0mb/d in
the past 18 months, due to higher Iraqi volumes and
maximum output from Saudi Arabia. It seems the
Saudis continue to be focused on market share instead
of higher prices, as indicated by the significant ramp
up in production during Q2’15. As a result, it now
seems that we will not see any meaningful global
inventory correction until the turn of the year.
The prospects for a nuclear deal with Iran has hit the
optimism that existed for 2016 oil prices. If the deal is
approved by the US congress, the sanctions on Iranian
exports are to be lifted. This may add significant crude
export volumes to the global markets. Estimates vary
from 0.5-1.0 mb/d of increased supply during the next
12-24 months, on top of what is already added by
Saudi/Iraq/Libya.
Hence, what a few months ago looked like a 2016 with
marginal production growth, significant demand
growth and a sharp downward inventory correction,
now looks more like a slow and gradual inventory
correction cycle.
All in all, this bodes for a more gradual recovery in
prices with the marginal cost of the US tight oil
producers (USD 60-65/b) probably representing a cap
until global inventories have come down significantly.
The longer term outlook for prices in the range of USD
75-90/b is the same, but looks certain to be pushed
out. This, plus the significant volatility, is obvously not
good news for oil services.
The oil price has exhibited significant volatility from the bottom in February this year. The sharp decline in US
onshore drilling activity and rising demand drove the prices upwards. Rising OPEC production, the imminent
introduction of potentially large Iranian export volumes and worries about Chinese demand have re-introduced a
bearish sentiment. Until global inventories have been meaningfully reduced, the marginal cost of US tight oil
production (USD 60-65/b) may represent a cap on the oil price.
Source: EIA, Pareto Securities
Source: EIA, Pareto Securities, Nordea Markets
Source: Pareto Securities
Source: IEA, Bloomberg, Pareto Securities
Source: EIA, Pareto Securities
Oil services, continued
The investment parameters are being reset
Global E&P spending is expected to be down around
25% this year, the biggest decline in three decades.
This masks some important regional differences,
namely that with North American spending expected
down 40-45%, it means that the RoW spending is
down around 18%. Still a big number, but not quite as
dramatic as the headline numbers would indicate.
An interesting exercise is to look at how low activity
levels have actually dropped. One may get the
impression that with a 25% decline in E&P spending,
the oil industry’s demand for assets and services are
dropping by the same magnitude. That is not the case,
most of the decline is driven by decline in pricing.
As shown in the chart to the left, the day rates for
various types of offshore oil service assets is down an
average of around 30% from the start of 2014. In
comparison, the decline in demand (i.e. activity levels)
is only down roughly 5% during the period. This
means that the oil industry is actually maintaining
their business levels at quite healthy levels.
Lower pricing means lower costs for the oil industry. In
an offshore development, the cost of seismic, drilling,
support and construction units make up about half of
the totalcost. While somewhat more sticky, the rest of
the cost base will also shrink in a low oil price
environment.
All this implies that more projects will gradually meet
the economic hurdles even with a low oil price. As a
result, activity levels will slowly start to ramp up
again. The graphs on the left illustrate a few concrete
examples of this. Of course, the reduced costs are not
solely due to pricing, but also through optimizing the
development solutions. Nevertheless, a roughly 35%
decline in costs means a lot to the profitability of a
project with an oil price in the 50s to 60s.
All in all, we expect a re-setting of the oil industry’s
cost base, coupled with a gradually increasing oil price
to start turning the markets around in the next 1-2
years. The process will be slow, but there will
definitely be light at the end of the tunell.
Source: Barclays Capital. Pareto Securities, EIA
Source: PPIM, Pareto Securities, Clarksons Platou
Source: Pareto Securities
E&P spending 1991-16e
Development costs USDm, Maria field - Norway
Development costs USDm, Kaombo field - Angola
Fund Management Team Richard Jansen Head of Maritime Investments Phone: + 47 22 01 58 96 E-email: [email protected] Dronning Mauds Gate 3, P.O. Box 1396 Vika, NO-0114 Oslo, Norway, Tlf: 22 87 87 00, www.paretosec.com/ppim.php
Patrick Kartevoll Fund Manager Phone: + 47 22 01 58 79 E-mail: [email protected]
Disclaimer
This Quarterly Report has been prepared in order to
provide information about Pareto World Wide Offshore
AS (“PWWO” or the “Company”) and must not be
considered an offer to trade in the shares of the
Company.
Information contained in this Quarterly Report is
obtained by Pareto Project Investment Management AS
(“Pareto Project Investment Management”, “Pareto”, or
“PPIM”). Information is presented to the best of our
efforts and knowledge, but Pareto cannot guarantee
that the information is correct or all inclusive. Pareto
takes no responsibility for any loss caused by
information given being misleading, wrongful or
incomplete nor for any other loss suffered as a
consequence of investments made in the Company.
This Quarterly Report includes and is based on, among
other things, forward-looking information and
statements. Such forward-looking information and
statements are based on the current expectations,
estimates and projection of the company or
assumptions based on information available to the
company and Pareto. Such forward-looking information
and statements reflect current views with respect to
future events and are subject to risks, uncertainties
and assumptions that may cause actual events to differ
materially from any anticipated development. All
investors must verify these assumptions themselves.
The company cannot give any assurance as to the
correctness of such information and statements.
Historic returns and return forecasts do not constitute
any guarantee for future returns. Returns may vary as
a consequence of fluctuations in currency exchange
rates. Investors should be aware that there is
significant uncertainty related to valuations in the
current volatile market. The valuation process is
described in Pareto Securities’ market report as per
May 2015. Risks and costs are further described in the
prospectus (information memorandum) produced in
relation to share issues in the Company.
The contents of this presentation are not to be
construed as legal, business, investment or tax advice.
Each recipient should consult with its legal-, business-,
investment-, and tax advisors as to legal, business,
investment and tax advice. Specifically, Pareto has
been engaged as the company’s financial advisor and
does not render – and shall not be deemed to render –
any advice or recommendations as to a transaction.