Park City Q3 Stats.pdf

8/10/2019 Park City Q3 Stats.pdf

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Good Morning First To KnowersTodays topics:

Demand: Nationally sales have slowed, true for GPC?Supply, absorption rates and areas

Cash Sales: nationally cash sales down, true for GPC?Distressed and Foreclosure Sales, how do we compare?Pricing Trends: Deceleration nationally, GPC?Market Segmentation and sample neighborhoodsSummary and dialogue

Question: Demand remains steady and inventory isdiminished, what explains our median prices?

A few ground rules and requests.

Park City Real Estate Statistics


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,-. /,0 12..

NAR announced (9/29/14) the pended home sales index fell1.0% in August from July to 104.7 and it is 2.2% belowAugust 2013. However, it remains at the second-highestlevel since last August.

Dr. Yun sees a 5% increase in sales for the 4th

quarter oflast year given increased job creation, increased inventorygiving buyers more choices, and low interest rates.

GPC PHSI for September increased 1.3% from a August to107.7. Pended sales for the first three quarters are down5% from 2013.

Demand: Pending Sales


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!"#$ &' ()*"+

,-. /,0 12..

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

Jan-01

Jan-02

Jan-03

Jan-04

Jan-05

Jan-06

Jan-07

Jan-08

Jan-09

Jan-10

Jan-11

Jan-12

Jan-13

Jan-14

NAR and GPC Pending Home Sales Index

Thru 9/2014Source: NAR, PCMLS/Compiled by Rick Klein

National PHSI Park City PHSI

Demand: Pending Sales

!"#$""% '(% )*++ (%, -".# )*+/0

#1" 234 35-6 1(7 8%9:"(7", ;< (%%=(>>?@


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0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

Jan-07

Apr

-07

Jul-0

7

Oct

-07

Jan-08

Apr

-08

Jul-0

8

Oct

-08

Jan-09

Apr

-09

Jul-0

9

Oct

-09

Jan-10

Apr

-10

Jul-1

0

Oct

-10

Jan-11

Apr

-11

Jul-1

1

Oct

-11

Jan-12

Apr

-12

Jul-1

2

Oct

-12

Jan-13

Apr

-13

Jul-1

3

Oct

-13

Jan-14

Apr

-14

Jul-1

4

#

oftransactio

ns

Pended Sales: Greater Park City

As of 9/2014Source: PCMLS/Compiled by Rick Klein

Land SFR Condos


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3"%,", 7(>"7 FE: IJ )*+/ (:"

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!=# =. )K< F:EA IJ )*+)@

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

Q3

2006

Q3

2007

Q

32008

Q3

2009

Q3

2010

Q3

2011

Q3

2012

Q3

2013

Q3

2014

#

ofTransact

ions

Pended Sales: Greater Park City3rd Quarter Comparison

(as of 9/2014)Source: PCMLS/Compiled by Rick Klein

VL SF CO


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3"%,", 7(>"7 #1:E=C1 IJ +/ (:"

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0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

#

ofTransactions

Pended Sales: Greater Park City

1st 9 Months Comparison(as of 9/2014)

Source: PCMLS/Rick J. Klein

VL SF CO

" $ ) "


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,-. /,0 12..

NAR announced (9/22/14)existing sales fell 1.8% in August to aSAAR of 5.05M; this is 5.3% below the level in August 2013.

Dr Yun said that sales activity remains stronger than earlierin the year, but fell last month as investors stepped way.

There was a marked decline in all-cash sales frominvestors.

GPC had a more mixed result: the three month rollingaverage increased 3.4% in August over July and increasedanother 4.3% in September to 138 transactions. However,the September 2014 three month rolling average is down12% from September 2013.

!"#$%&' /0*.1%+ ,$-".

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!"#$ &' ()*"+

,-. /,0 12..Demand: Existing Sales

0.0

50.0

100.0

150.0

200.0

250.0

300.0

350.0

4,000,000

4,500,000

5,000,000

5,500,000

6,000,000

6,500,000

7,000,000

7,500,000

Jan-00

Jul-0

0

Jan-01

Jul-0

1

Jan-02

Jul-0

2

Jan-03

Jul-0

3

Jan-04

Jul-0

4

Jan-05

Jul-0

5

Jan-06

Jul-0

6

Jan-07

Jul-0

7

Jan-08

Jul-0

8

Jan-09

Jul-0

9

Jan-10

Jul-1

0

Jan-11

Jul-11

Jan-12

Jul-1

2

Jan-13

Jul-1

3

Jan-14

Jul-1

4

NAR and PC # of TransactionsAs of 9/2014

Source NAR, PCMLS/Compiled by Rick Klein

NAR SAAR Left Axis PC 3 Mo Rolling Avg Right Axis

6%#":"7M%C #E %E#"N

234 87 O=7# 7>8C1#>? (BEP" '(%=(:? )***

Q18>" RST 87 O=7# 7>8C1#>? >E$":@


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0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

Jan-07

Apr-07

Jul-07

Oct-07

Jan-08

Apr-08

Jul-08

Oct-08

Jan-09

Apr-09

Jul-09

Oct-09

Jan-10

Apr-10

Jul-10

Oct-10

Jan-11

Apr-11

Jul-11

Oct-11

Jan-12

Apr-12

Jul-12

Oct-12

Jan-13

Apr-13

Jul-13

Oct-13

Jan-14

Apr-14

Jul-14

#

ofTransactio

ns

Closed Sales: Greater Park CityNumber of Transactions


CO SF VL


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Closed sales for Q3 2014 are12% below Q3 2013 and20% above Q3 2012Sales of Single Family down 16.8%

!"#$%&' /0*.1%+ ,$-".

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

Q2

06

Q3

07

Q3

08

Q3

09

Q3

10

Q3

11

Q3

12

Q3

13

Q3

14

#

ofTransact

ions

Closed Sales: Greater Park City3rd Quarter Comparison


Condo Sf VL


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Recall as of Q2 number of sales weredown about 3%.Closed sales through Q3 of 2014 aredown 6% from Q3 2013up 14.5% from Q3 2012

Single Family down 16.5% from 2013

!"#$%&' /0*.1%+ ,$-".

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

Q

30

6

Q

30

7

Q

30

8

Q

30

9

Q

31

0

Q

31

1

Q

31

2

Q

31

3

Q

31

4

NumberofTransactions

Closed Sales: Greater Park City1st 9 Months Comparison

(as of 9/2014)Source: PCMLS/Rick J. Klein

Condo Sf VL


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Volume for Q3 2014 is2.4% above Q3 201332.6% above Q3 2012

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0

200,000,000

400,000,000

600,000,000

800,000,000

1,000,000,000

1,200,000,000

1,400,000,000

Q

32

006

Q

32

007

Q

32

008

Q

32

009

Q

32

010

Q3

2011

Q

32

012

Q

32

103

Q

32

014

VoumeSold

Greater Park City Year to Date Volume1st 9 Months Comparison

(as of 9/2014)

Source: PCMLS/Compiled by Rick Klein

Condo SF VL

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B ./016C & D0 ?;4 >/6E ?F21A G0/HD6 & D0 ?;4 >724IJ ?F21A

Number of sales back to 9/2002Volume back to 12/2004

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,-. /,0 12..

NAR: Total housing inventory at the end of August declined1.7% to 2.3M existing home, which represents a 5.5 monthsupply at the current sales pace. Unsold inventory is 4.5%above a year ago, when there 2.21M existing homes forsale.

GPC total listings October 1st was 1,198; this is down7.5% from September and is a 3% increase over October2013. The absorption rate is 8.6 months for all properties

and 7.1 months for condos and single family.

Supply: Inventory


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0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

Jan-07

May-07

Sep-07

Jan-08

May-08

Sep-08

Jan-09

May-09

Sep-09

Jan-10

May-10

Sep-10

Jan-11

May-11

Sep-11

Jan-12

May-12

Sep-12

Jan-13

May-13

Sep-13

Jan-14

May-14

Sep-14

#

oflistings

Active Listings - Greater Park City

(Inventory as of first of the month)October 1, 2014Source: PCMLS/Compiled by Rick Klein

VL SF CO


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!"#$ &' ()*"+

,-. /,0 12..Supply

SB7E:.ME% :(#" (# K@+ AE%#17

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0

5

10

1520

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

Jan-0

7

Apr-0

7

Jul-0

7

Oct-0

7

Jan-0

8

Apr-0

8

Jul-0

8

Oct-0

8

Jan-0

9

Apr-0

9

Jul-0

9

Oct-0

9

Jan-1

0

Apr-1

0

Jul-1

0

Oct-1

0

Jan-1

1

Apr-1

1

Jul-1

1

Oct-1

1

Jan-1

2

Apr-1

2

Jul-1

2

Oct-1

2

Jan-1

3

Apr-1

3

Jul-1

3

Oct-1

3

Jan-1

4

Apr-1

4

Jul-1

4

#ofMonths

Absorption Rate (ex lots): Greater Park City

October 2014(Sales: 3 mo rolling avg.)

Source: PC MLS/ Compiled by Rick Klein

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!"#$ &' ()*"+

,-. /,0 12..Supply: Q3 14 Absorption Rate Per Area

* # of Sales based upon past 12 months

!"#$" %& '(

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="+#* 8*#*JO*@ A221 PAABQ' 7+N*=EC@=I ?>C


19/45

!"#$ &' ()*"+

,-. /,0 12..Cash Sales

26%

35%

45%

50%48%

50%48% 47% 46% 47%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Q114 Q2 14 Q3 14

%o

fCashSales

Cash Sales HistorySource: PCMLS/Rick J. Klein

Cash Sales

!"#$ & ()*"+


20/45

!"#$ &' ()*"+

,-. /,0 12..Cash Sales

29%

42%

59%57%

55%

20%

31%

44%46%

42%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

2006 2008 2010 2012 YTD 14

%o

fCashSales

Cash Financing History for GPCby Areas

Source: PCMLS/Rick J. Klein

Areas 1-9 Areas 10-23

!"#$ & ()*"+


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!"#$ &' ()*"+

,-. /,0 12..Mortgage Rates

30 Year Fixed 7/1 ARM

Conforming 4.125%4.209% APR 3.125%3.002% APR

High Balance($600,300)

4.125%4.167% APR

3.500%3.135% APR

Non-Conforming 4.000%4.028% APR

3.000%2.890% APR

!


22/45

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23/45

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,-. /,0 12..

3456! 78 ,9-/29!*.79".."& ,$-".

Distressed sales are up 0.5% fromQ2 2014 but otherwise lowest levelsince we began tracking in 2011

2.05%

0.65%

1.23%

0.33%

0.00%

0.50%

1.00%

1.50%

2.00%

2.50%

3.00%

3.50%

% Sold % Listed

%o

ftransactions

Summit County Distressed Sales and Listings Q3 2014All Property types excluding fractionals

!"#$%&' )*+,!-*"./01&2 34 50%6 71&08

Short Sale Bank Owned

!"#$ & ()*"+


24/45

!"#$ &' ()*"+

,-. /,0 12..Distressed Sales

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%

35.0%

40.0%

45.0%

Q3

10

Q4

10

Q1

11

Q2

11

Q3

11

Q4

11

Q1

12

Q2

12

Q3

12

Q4

12

Q1

13

Q2

13

Q3

13

Q4

13

Q1

14

Q2

14

Q3

14

Percent of Distressed Sales Summit CountyAll Property types excluding fractionals

Source: Summit County Recorder, PCMLS/Compiled by Rick Klein

Short Sale REO

!"#$ & ()*"+


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!"#$ &' ()*"+

,-. /,0 12..Distressed Sales

0.00%

5.00%

10.00%

15.00%

20.00%

25.00%

30.00%

35.00%

$350,000

$400,000

$450,000

$500,000

$550,000

$600,000

$650,000

Sep-10

Nov-10

Jan-11

Mar

-11

May

-11

Jul-1

1

Sep-11

Nov-11

Jan-12

Mar

-12

May

-12

Jul-1

2

Sep-12

Nov-12

Jan-13

Mar

-13

May

-13

Jul-1

3

Sep-13

Nov-13

Jan-14

Mar

-14

May

-14

Jul-1

4

Sep-14

All Ex Distressed % Distressed (3 mo. avg.)

Greater Park City Prices6 month rolling average

(as of 9/2014)

Source: PCMLS/Coompiled by Rick Klein

!"#$ &' ()*"+


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!"#$ &' ()*"+

,-. /,0 12..Shadow Inventory/Foreclosures

Core Logic announced (10/1/2014)49,000 foreclosures inAugust down 22% from one year ago. There areapproximately 629K homes in some stages of foreclosurecompare to 936K in August of 2913. Foreclosure inventoryis currently 1.6% of homes with a mortgage compared to2.4% in August 2013. Utahs foreclosure inventory is 0.6%.

Yet, five years into the recovery, the foreclosure inventoryis still three times normal levels. Since the great recession,seven million homes have been foreclosed which accounts

for 15% of all mortgages.

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27/45

!"#$ &' ()*"+

,-. /,0 12..!*.79".."& ,$-".

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

Q107

Q207

Q307

Q407

Q108

Q208

Q308

Q408

Q109

Q209

Q309

Q409

Q110

Q2

10

Q3

10

Q410

Q111

Q2

11

Q3

11

Q411

Q112

Q2

12

Q3

12

Q412

Q113

Q2

13

Q3

13

Q413

Q114

Q2

14

Q3

14

Foreclosure Report - Wasatch CountySource: Wasatch County Recorder/Rick J. Klein

Notice of Default Trustee's Deed

RZ[7 :"A(8% \7#=9]^ (#

(:E=%, )* =%8#7 .": U=(:#":

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28/45

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,-. /,0 12..!*.79".."& ,$-".

RZ[7 8%9:"(7", B? +* =%8#7

F:EA I) )*+/@

0

50

100

150

200

250

Q107

Q207

Q307

Q407

Q108

Q209

Q308

Q408

Q109

Q209

Q309

Q409

Q110

Q210

Q310

Q410

Q111

Q211

Q311

Q411

Q112

Q212

Q312

Q412

Q113

Q213

Q313

Q413

Q114

Q214

Q314

Foreclosure Report - Summit CountyIncludes all property types except fractioinals

Source: Summi County Recorder/Compiled by Rick Klein

Notice of Default Trustee's Deed

!"#$ &' ()*"+


29/45

!"#$ &' ()*"+,-. /,0 12..Home Prices

NAR (9/22)stated median existing home prices rose 4.8% to

$219,800 from one year ago.

Case Shiller announced (7/29) home prices increases slowed to

6.7% for the 12 months ending in July; 19 of the 20 cities sawlower gains in July than in June.

FHFA stated (9/23) home prices increased 4.4% for the 12 monthsending July 2014 and were up 0.1% from June.

CoreLogic reported (August) home prices increased 6.4%year over year in July; this is down 2% from last quarter.Appreciation peaked at 12% in Oct 2013. Utah is up 6.2%YOY.

GPC 12 month median price for September is $520K andthe mean price is $856,270. This represents a 2.1% and

2.5% increase over September 2013.

!"#$ &' ()*"+


30/45

!"#$ &' ()*"+,-. /,0 12..Home Prices

!"#$ &' ()*"+


31/45

,-. /,0 12..Home Prices

!"#$ &' ()*"+


32/45


Federal Housing Finance Agency

!"#$ &' ()*"+


33/45


!"#$ &' ()*"+


34/45


$100,000

$200,000

$300,000

$400,000

$500,000

$600,000

$700,000

$800,000

$100,000

$120,000

$140,000

$160,000

$180,000

$200,000

$220,000

$240,000

1/1/00

1/1/01

1/1/02

1/1/03

1/1/04

1/1/05

1/1/06

1/1/07

1/1/08

1/1/09

1/1/10

1/1/11

1/1/12

1/1/13

1/1/14

PC

6MoRollingAvg

NAR

Med

ian

NAR and PC Median Price TrendsAs of 9/2014

Source: NAR, PCMLS/Rick J. Klein

US Median left axis PC Median right axis

!"#$ &' ()*"+


35/45

,-. /,0 12..Homes Prices

3:89"7 9E%M%=" #E :87"0

(>B"8#0 (# ( 7>=CC871 .(9"@

$100,000

$200,000

$300,000

$400,000

$500,000

$600,000

$700,000

$800,000

Jan-01

Jul-0

1

Jan-02

Jul-0

2

Jan-03

Jul-0

3

Jan-04

Jul-0

4

Jan-05

Jul-0

5

Jan-06

Jul-0

6

Jan-07

Jul-0

7

Jan-08

Jul-0

8

Jan-09

Jul-0

9

Jan-10

Jul-1

0

Jan-11

Jul-1

1

Jan-12

Jul-1

2

Jan-13

Jul-1

3

Jan-14

Jul-1

4

MedianPrice

Greater Park City Median Prices12 month rolling average

(As of 6/2013)

Source PCMLS & Rick J. Klein

12 Mo avg Med Price`

!"#$ &' ()*"+


36/45

,-. /,0 12..

IJ )*+/N +) AE%#1 A",8(%

.:89" =. )@+< (BEP" IJ )*+J

_. ++@K< (BEP" I) )*+)

Home Prices

0

100000

200000

300000

400000

500000

600000

700000

800000

Q

32000

Q

32001

Q

32002

Q

32003

Q

320

04

Q

320

05

Q

320

06

Q

32007

Q

32008

Q

32009

Q

32010

Q

32011

Q

320

12

Q

320

13

Q

32014

MedianPr

ice

GPC 12 Month Median Prices

As of 9/2014


Median Price

!"#$ &' ()*"+


37/45

,-. /,0 12..

IJ )*+/N +) AE%#1 (P":(C"

.:89" =. )@L< (BEP" IJ )*+J

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Home Prices

0

200000

400000

600000

800000

1000000

1200000

Q32000

Q32001

Q32002

Q32003

Q320

04

Q320

05

Q320

06

Q32007

Q32008

Q32009

Q32010

Q32011

Q320

12

Q320

13

Q32014

Avg

pric

e

GPC 12 Month Average PricesAs of 9/2014


Average Price

!"#$ &' ()*"+


38/45

,-. /,0 12..

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

0

200000

400000

600000

800000

1000000

1200000

!"$%

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transactions

Value

12 mo Median/Average Values & Transactionsas of 9/2014


Median Price Average Price # of transactions (right axis)

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39/45

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Documents

Park City Q3 Stats.pdf