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Part Ⅱ 证券投资 估值. Unit 4 证券估值原理 Unit 5 证券的行业估值 Unit 6 证券的企业营运估值. 项目 1. 股票估值训练. 任务 1 - 1 (任课教师指导学生自主选股) 绩优股票估值(案例) 贵州茅台( 600519 )的相关资料如下(参考): 1 . 股本规模: 94380 万股,流通股 94380 万股。 2. 2009 年年报基本数据: 1 )每股收益: 4.57 元,每股派息 1.185 元; 2 )每股净资产: 15.33 元; 3 )每股资本公积金: 1.457 元; - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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PartUnit 4 Unit 5 Unit 6
1. 116005191 .94380943802. 200914.571.185215.3331.457411.193. 4. 5. 6. 2009169
12 ST6007111 .794639712. 200810.1720.3830.03840.673. 4. 5. 6. 20095
2. 21 081260181. 6800682. 1003. 14. 2008.9.2285. 2008.10.10
221259601. 650650002. 1003. t12.61t22.91t33.21t43.51t53.814. 2007.5.1455. 2008.5.296. 2007.11.142012.5.137. 29.308. 24.33
Unit 4 1 2k 3 1 2 3
1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6.
Unit 4.1 1.
tptP0r4.1
Ptr15r10r5r3t41
2. Pt
pv--- Pt--- k--- n--- 124.2
k3k5k10k15Pvt42
3. 14.3A
24.4
34.5tAPv0PvPv00rkrkrk
4. kkk
4.6 rs rl rg rb rc W1...50.20.350.250.10.1
412.255.43.832.21.64k 4.9
k3.68k
Unit 4.2 1. 12344.74.84.94.10PbtPb0rTt
2. Pbv1
n=(T-t)2
4.114.12
3
4
4.134.14
3. 1
24.154.16
3
44.174.18PbmRyb
4. 1
24.194.20
42 200892208126018100189222008102865.18k3.91 Pbm65.18r1Pb0100T8nTt80.17.91360k3.91 14.9
24.13
4.19
34.20
4.17NPbvPbvPbm
41
6765.1867
65.1810879.7780.626.218.333.91
5. 1 2
3 k 4
Unit 4.3 1. PPne
PPn+e
2.
D--- P--- k--- t---
1DDMS DDMS4.214.22
2CAPM 4.24 4.23
3. 1 2
Ps--- Ee--- ---- 4.25 4.26
3
4. 1234
5. 1 Net Present Value 4.27 NPsvPsvPsm
2 Internal Rate of ReturnNPsv0PsvPsm Rsirrk 4.28 Rsirr
43 60000420090.4711.44/2009k3.91BO00.47k3.91Psm11.44 4.24
4.27
NPsv>0 4.28
Rsirr>k
Unit 4.4 1.
Pz--- C--- L--- Q--- P--- 4.29
2. 123
Unit 4.5 1. 1 1 PPFmwPmw 4.30 PPFmwPmw 2
2 1 2
2. 1 1 Pcw---Pt---Px--- Pcw=PtPx 4.31 2 Ppw---Px--- Ppw=PxPt 4.32
2 1 2
3 1 2 3
3. 1 1 Pz---P0--- E--- Pz=P0+E 4.33 PsPx Pk=Pz1kn 4.34 Pk--- n--- k---
2 Pg=rPs 4.35 r=P0Px 4.36 Pg--- Px--- Ps--- r--- 3 Pq=rPsPx 4.37
3 1
2
3 4 5
Unit 4.6 1. 2. 3. 4. 5.
Unit 4.6.1 1. 1Pt
24.37
PT3
2. 1 1 2 3
2 1 2 3 4 5
3 Pm=Pn+Pe+PwPs 4.39
Pm Pn Pe Pw Ps
4PPabW2W1cW3WP---W--S---PaacBcC---
3. 1 1 24.40
2 1 PP2P0P1OBAFDECSWd2Ws1W0Ws2Wd1W
2
3
4. 1 35
2 1
2
Unit 4.6.2 1. 1 2 3 Pm=Pn+PePs 4.41
3. 1 Pm>P Pm=P Pmyl(n) ym=yl(n) ymk k
Unit 4.6.3 1. 1 2 3 4 Pm=Pn+Pe+PwPs
2. 1
2
3
4
3. 1NPV NPV=P-Pm 4.42
NPV>0 NPV=0 NPV
2IRR Pm=D0/k* 4.43 k*=D0/Pm 4.44
k*>k k*
3 0=1/k 4.45 > 0 < 0 --- 0 ---
4 1 Pa=PT/CT 4.46 PT--- CT--- Pa---/
2 PTM2 4.48 PT M2 0.1 0.7
200620072008
20052006200720080970.150.110.710.260.485.424.7418.935.6811.14
Unit 4.6.4 1. 12
Pm=Pn 4.49 Pm=Pn+Ps 4.50
4. 1 2 3
5. 1 2 3 4 5
Unit 4.6.5 1. 1 PmPcPrPs 4.51 PcPr Ps2 PmPTPs 4.52 PT Ps
Introduction to Futures and Options Markets3thEition3 FSerT 4.53 F S R T
4 1 2 3 4
TP
2. 1 PmPcwPtvPs 4.54
Pcw Ptv 2 PmPpwPtvPs 4.55
Ppw
Introduction to Futures and Options Markets3thEition 3Black-Scholes
c T P X Nx--S r 4.564.574.584.59
4 12
PxP0+P0P
PPx0+P0P
3. 1PsPx Pk=Pz1kn 4.60 Pk--- n--- k--- 2 Ps>Px Pk=Pg+Pq+PtvPs 4.61
3
Px100
41 2112345678910
2. 212345678
3120030.21366.31.98%20210810051.5%1088/1096/ k2
41 2
3 20070.240018.33.87%5 2007103010061.%103013.85/2007112610.07/ k5
Unit 5 1 2 3 1 2 3
1. 2. 3. 4.
Unit 5.1 1.
1
2
2.
1 2
3 1 2 3. 123
Unit 5.2 1.
1
2
2. 12 3
3. 12 3 4
4. 1 2 3 4
Unit 5.3 1
2.
1
2
3. 1 2
Unit 5.4 1.
1 2
3
4
2. 12 3 1 2 3
3. 1 2 3
4. 1 2 3
5. 1 2 3
51 21234567
Unit 6 1 2 3 1 2 3
1. 2. 3. 4. 5.
Unit 6.1 1. 12 1 2 3
3
1 2 3 4
2. 1 1 22 1 2 3
3 1 2 3 44 1 2 35
3. 1122
3 1 2 3
4. 1 1 2 32 1 2
5. 1 1 22 1 2 3 4 5
Unit 6.2 1. 1232. 1234
3. 1 1 2 32 1 2
3 1 2 34 1 2 3 4
4. 1234
5. 1236. 12347.
8. 12 1 234 1 2567
Unit 6.3 1. 1232. 123
3. 1 1 A=L+OE 6.1 A(Assets) B(Liabilities) OE(Owner,s Equity)
2 a b c
3 a b c
2 1 2
3
3 1 2 3 4 5
4. =+ 6.2
=++6.3
=++ 6.4
=+ 6.5
5. 1
1 2 3
2 1 2 33 1 2 3 4
6. 1
1 2 3 4
2 1 2 3 4 5
3 1 2 3 4 5 6
4 1 2 3 4 5
Unit 6.4 1. 1 2 3
2. 1 1 2 = 6.6 3 2
2 1 2 = 6.7 3 1
3 1 2 = 6.8 3
4 1 2 = 6.9 =360 6.10 3
3. 1 1 2 = 6.11 3
2 1 2 = 6.12 3
3 1 = 7.13 2 = 7.14 3
4 1 2 = 7.15 3 11.51
4. 1 1 = 7.16 =360 7.17 3
2 1 = 7.18 2
3 1 = 7.19 2
4 1 =[] 100% 7.20 2
5. 1 1 =/100% 7.21 = 7.22 2
2 1 =/100% 7.23 2
3 1 =100% 7.24 =2 7.25 2
4 1 =/100% 7.26 2
6. 1P2012 1 / 100 7.27 2
3
1 /100 7.28 2
4 1 /100 7.29 2
Unit 6.5 1. 1 7.30 7.312 7.323 7.33
2. 1 7.342Unit 5 7.35
3 7.364 7.375 /100 7.38 2 7.39
3. 1 100 7.40 2 100 7.413 7.42
61123456
212345678
Introduction to Futures and Options Markets3thEition