Part FourPhysical & Social Erosion

GlobalizationThe Metropolitan AreaDeclining Birth Rates

[Agents of Transformation]

Agents of TransformationCrumbling Towns

The Underlying Forces of Rural Change – Emerging Behavior in Persistently Declining Communities

Transforming Experience

I once woke up and thought that I was dead, but then I realized that I was in NebraskaClint Eastwood

A Matter of PerspectiveDangerous Missouri Building – 87 years old

Vibrant Town Center of Haddington, Scotland – 570 years old

100 Years of Use, But 50 Years of Neglect

Our basic stock of commercial and industrial buildings create wealth in the form of tax transfers

on property and at the point of sale.

The highway still may wind through country towns, but these have been struck with "rural blight': shuttered Main Street businesses and crumbling buildings. Homemade cobbler or fresh peaches are nowhere to be found, though you might be able to pick up a bag of Oreos at a tiny gas pump/convenience store. The towns seem on the verge of disappearance. Few would regret leaving this landscape.

Ron “Doc” Postun

• The brick towns of the Great Plains are the agents of their own destruction

• The bricks were quick fired and lose their compression strength at the point of contract with the foundation

• The typical Great Plains town is now 120 years old• About 70% of CBD buildings are owned by

absentee landlords• About 20% are

abandoned• Marginal Restoration =

$275,000+ which is about $50 per sq. ft.

Restoration is still possible, but now almost totally relegated to the private market after withdrawal of block grants

• We expend, on the average, about 18 percent on our total tax take on infrastructure & repair

• Three general periods when our existing infrastructure was installed –– 1919 – 1929– 1947 – 1966– 1976 – 1984

• To replace our current infrastructure by 2040 for 454 million people will require at least 32 percent of our tax take

In Other Words

Agents of TransformationEmergent Globalization

Globalization Is An Emerging Globalization Is An Emerging Set of Goals, Policies, and Set of Goals, Policies, and Applications Designed To Applications Designed To Increase The Wealth Of Local, Increase The Wealth Of Local, Regional, And Sub-National Regional, And Sub-National AreasAreas

• Sovereignty, Globalization Outsourcing & Tax

– The “vanishing taxpayer” – harmonizing global taxes

– The terrible economic cost to the developing world compliments of the World Bank

– Cheap labor, cheaper goods and the race to the bottom are the flip side of globalization

– The bottom line is that wage earners, will be privatized to compete with the self-employed

• Please note that globalization may not increase your wealth, but like democracy itself – you can be assured that you will get what you deserve!

• The most noticeable immediate impact of globalization is The New Economy. This refers to the idea that the broad application of information technology throughout the globe has altered the rules previously thought to govern the business cycle, investment, knowledge transfer and economic development strategy

New Economy

800 – 950 teraflops per second @ 31 GHz

19701986199020052015

200 – 274 Mbps DSN4 @ 3.5 GHz

Arpanet/Internet/Internet II Backbone Speeds

56 Kbps @ 16 MHz

300 bps @ 1 MHz

15 Mbps @ 66 MHz

2.33 – 2.67 THz

Rigging the Market

For our rural communities to stay with the curve in thenew economy, they must “rig” the market by:

•Jobs creation Connecting to the backbone Public/private partnerships

Creating Image

We must create a new image of ourselves – no more Dorothy & TOTO

Born of New Ideas

New Synergies and Models for the 21st Century Globalism

•Changing economic forces at the global level will create a new layer of stress on the fight for local resources•The pressure to replace infra-structure will reach a critical cycle from 2016 – 2030 as the 1955 interstate highway disintegrates•Declining infrastructure means less tax revenue•We all sit at the same trough when it comes to tax revenue

Metropolitan Forces Implosion and Expansion

• Def – One or more counties with an urban area of 50,000 population or more; or, a place that comprises a component economic area of 50,000 persons or more

Percent of Total World Population Living Rural

Rural Now Rural 2020Rural 2050 Rural 3000

Tipping point came in 2005 when the world went 51% metropolitan 49 percent rural

Our Global Village 2050

Asians

Africans

LatinAmericans

EasternEurope.

NorthAmericans

Aus./N.Z.

RussianFederation

WestEurope

584

124

84

6755

52

6

28

The Metro Engine Since 1970

5 - 10 Million Persons 10 - 15 Million Persons 15 Million Or More0

5

10

15

20

25197019852000

World Metropolitan Agglomeration

NASA – Composite of 2,204 pictures from Hubble Telescope with light enhancement 102%

Growth % Land Use

Tokyo-Yokohama

31.7 million 2030 sq mi

New York Region

30.2 million 4445 sq mi

Buenos Aires 11.2 million 1070 sq miPhiladelphia 5.1 million 1799 sq milesCairo 12.2 million 1186 sq. milesJakarta 17 million 1000 sq. milesMexico City 17.2 million 570 sq. miles

Atlanta v. Mexico City

Mexico City Metro 17.2 million

570 sq. miles

10 year level annualized cost differential for service &

infrastructure708 billion

Atlanta Metro 3.9 million1963 sq, miles

Superermetro•In 2003, United Nations’ Census Estimates Would Indicate That 10 Supermetros Are 15 million persons or larger

What are the top five?

When will we see the first 50 million person metro?

World’LargestTokyo – Yokohama = 31.2 millionTokyo – Yokohama = 31.2 million

New York Urban Region = 30.286 millionNew York Urban Region = 30.286 millionMexico City Urban Region = 23.9 millionMexico City Urban Region = 23.9 million

Seoul Urban Agglomeration = 22.1 millionSeoul Urban Agglomeration = 22.1 millionSao Paulo Urban Region = 20.3 millionSao Paulo Urban Region = 20.3 million

Mumbia (Bombay) could be largerMumbia (Bombay) could be larger

In 1996 the first Supermetro passed 30 million. The first 50 million Megametro is expected to occur in 2029 -

Rural v Metro Growth 2060

1970

2000

2030

2060Urban Rural0

50100150200250300350400450

Bureau of Census, Middle Projection Series - 2060

Growth in the USA

U.S. Population in 1950

162. millionWorld Population

19502.550 billion

U.S. Population in 2050

419 millionWorld Population

20509.190 billion

Compared to China

Watch these age groups

The Non-Metro Side

Basic American Rural Demography

• A vital piece of American• Seventy-nine percent of our

land mass• Home to 24 million people• A striking combination of the

best and the worst America has to offer

� Over I million Over I million 10 10

�. 5 to 1 Million . 5 to 1 Million 14 14

�.25 to .499 Million .25 to .499 Million 42 42

�.1 to .249 Million .1 to .249 Million 153 153

� 50,000 to 99,999 50,000 to 99,999 347347

� 25,000 to 49,999 25,000 to 49,999 597 597

� 10,000 to 24,999 10,000 to 24,999 1,3661,366

� Under 10,000 Under 10,000 16,80816,808

� Under 5,000 Under 5,000 12,34512,345

� Under 1,000 Under 1,000 7,842 7,842

United States Of AmericaAll census counting places 2003 estimated: 19,335 places

There are 53 metropolitan areas in the U.S. larger than 1,000,000 persons

Non-Metropolitan and Metropolitan Counties

2004

County Typologies

Non-Metro in 1990 & 2000 (2007 counties)

Non-Metro to Metro 1990 – 2000 (298)

Metro to Non-Metro 1990 – 2000 (45)

Metro in 1990 & 2000 (791 counties)

Farm Dependent Counties

1950 2000

2020

Really, Really Rural

These two colors are not good

The Heartland

Shifting Population Core 1990 - 2000

Red = 8% increase of moreYellow = 1 – 7 percentWhite = little change or decline

Percent Change in K-12 Students 1990 - 2000

Percent Change in K-12 Students: 1989-99 to 1999-00Loss: 11% or moreLoss: 0% to 10.9%Gain: 0% to 8.9%Gain: 9% to 23.9%Gain: 24% or moreNot Applicable

Green is Bad

Kusler & Schwartbeck - 2004

Growth Patterns 1950 - 2000

Dark purple represents continuous decline

Quick Facts• There are 3141 County census counting areas

• 2398 gained population, but the gain in 400 of these counties is marginal

• 1743 lost population

• About 600 counties lost less than 2% of their population

• About 400 counties lost 10% or more• 60% of the entire loss came from the Great

Plains/West States

38%

52%

10%

GainedLost

Little Change

The Twilight Zones

Frontier Counties of the U.S. With Less Than 6 persons sq.

mile

Frontier County Demographics

Rural Counties of the U.S.

U.S. Rapid Growing Counties

• 20 counties increased population from 75 to 181 percent 1990 – 2000

• 8 are in Colorado; 2 in Nevada

• 4 are in Georgia; 1 in Virginia• 2 in Texas; 2 in Utah; 1 in

Idaho

Student Enrollment in Rural Counties

• The states with the highest percentages of rural schools with declining enrollments were Louisiana, Idaho, North Dakota, West Virginia, and Wyoming.

• The spiraling cost of health insurance is yet another factor in rural school closures One district planned on a 9% increase and was hit with a 26% increase

K-12 School Distribution

Nearly 60 percent of the nation's school districts are rural, but they teach only 20 percent of the total student population, according to the U.S. Department of Education

60%

40%

0%

Urban Rural

The Bottom LineForecast – If business as usual continues • 411 counties will

require consolidation • 339 counties will be in

severe stress• 86 counties will have

moderate stress• 1,469 counties will be

in fat city• 836 solid counties

metro

And What Are the Measures of Stress

• Median Age over 41 years• Median Age over 45 years• Ratio of 13 – 17 year olds to the # of

children aged 0 12 years• Raw birth rate approaching 1.8/1,000• Median family income more than -1.7 S

deviations from state mean• Population loss for 4 consecutive

decades• Population loss greater than 50 percent

1920 - 2000

Sounds Bad?The U.S. is actually in pretty good shape

41.1 percent less population

Europe is Rapidly Changing

EUROPE AS A WHOLE WILL PROBABLY LOSE ABOUT 20 MILLION PEOPLE OVER THE NEXT 40 YEARS

• Two counter forces combine to place stress on a global rural population– Population change

through growth which favors the metropolitan place

– Population change in demographics

In March, 2005 There Are 6.71 Billion People

It is a time for choices

The Population Clock

• 236,012 persons 236,012 persons were born todaywere born today

• 98,603 persons will 98,603 persons will die todaydie today

Projected World Population to 2050

Implosion

Italy is in Free Fall

Population Loss in Italy Approx. 28% by 2040

.9809 fertility rate to reduce to .8997 by 2040

Similar Situations

• Spain Severe Decline• Albania Severe Decline• Czech Rep. Decline• Austria Decline• Poland Severe Decline• Greece Decline• Romania Significant Decline

Conclusions

• Boom and bust according to the standard scenario

• Will occur from about 2000 – 2050

• European economies will be even more dependent on guest workers