02.11.2018

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Jörg Priess, C. Schweitzer, J. Alcamo, J. Schaldach, J Hauck, R Haines-Young, R Alkemade, M Mandryk,

B Gyorgyi, R Dunford, P Berry, P Harrison, J Dick, H Keune, M Kok, L Kopperoinen, D. Lapola,

T Lazarova, J Maes, G P, E Preda, C Schleyer, C Görg, A Vadineanu, G Zulian, C Veerkamp …

GLP co-production webinar #3, Nov 1st, 2018

Participatory modelling, scenario building

and forecasting techniques in

land system science -

topic 1: participatory scenario development

at different scales

Participatory Scenario Development

• Why scenarios?

• Why participatory co-design approaches ?

Short definition:A scenario is a plausible description of how the future may

unfold

Typical scenario components:Storylines, set of drivers of change; spatio-temporal coverage;

starting year; visualization …

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Participatory Scenario Development

• Why scenarios?

… Scenario-based approaches are particularly useful

when addressing the

considerable uncertainty

about future trajectories

in complex systems …Source: Zurek & Henrichs (2007)

And not visions , forecasts and / or(technical) solutions

Participatory Scenario Development

• Why scenarios?

Scenarios are considered suitable

to assess land systems,which are complex

socio-environmental systems,

changes usually driven by

multiple factors (high uncertainty)

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Participatory Scenario Development

• Why participatory co-design approaches ?

• Credibility

• consistency, coherence, clarity and unambiguity of method & assumptions

• Legitimacy

• traceability, transparency, diversity

• Relevance (saliency)

• achieves objectives, novelty, creativity, unconventional thhinking …

• Impact

• learning, communicating, supporting governance & policy …

Like other co-design / co-development approaches contributions

of stakeholders are expected to increase:

Source: own compilation motivated by Alcamo et al. 2008; Jakeman et al. 2014

Scenario development at different scales

Study ScaleCo-design

level (0 – 3)Thematic focus Source

LUCC Sulawesi Regional 1Agric. Expansion, coffee

production, deforestationPriess et al. 2007

LUCC North

MongoliaRegional 2

CC, LUCC & water demands

of main economic sectorsPriess et al. 2010; 2015

Biofuels, Brazil Continental 0(In)direct effects of biofuel

production in BrazilLapola et al. 2010

LUCC Africa Continental 0 CC & LUCC in Africa Alcamo et al. 2011

Biofuels, India National 0Impacts of biofuel production

on land demandsSchaldach et al. 2011

Central Germany

scenariosRegional 2

CC & LUCC ((organic)

agriculture, bioenergy,

urbanisation)

Hauck & Priess 2013;

Priess and Hauck 2014;

Priess et al. 2018

LUCC, Blue Nile Regional 0Impacts of CC on agric &

livestock productionYalew et al. 2016

LUCC, Central

GermanyRegional 0

Impacts of biofuel (short

rotation coppice) on LUCCSchulze et al. 2016

LUCC Europe Cont � reg 1-2 LUCC & ecosystem servicesPriess et al. 2017; Dick et

al. 2018; Priess et al. 2018

LUCC Europe Glob � reg 1Increasing cross-scale

consistency of SSPs & RCPs(Ongoing; lead BOKU)

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Putting Scenario co-design into practise

Stakeholder selection

Representatives of land users organized

in e.g. unions, associations, NGOs or

authorities at national/state/regional level, who:

a) are engaged in sustainable land use

b) influence federal, state or regional land use decisions;

c) depend on the resource land / are affected by land use (change)

balanced across economic sectors, societal groups, regions/countries …

Scenario components to be co-designed:

a) drivers of change (identification, quantification)

b) storylines (narrative describing plausible pathways into the future)

c) scenario analysis (qualitative or quantitative e.g. simulation models)

Participatory methods (considering availability of resources and time)

Development process (ex ante surveys, workshop(s), delphi…)

Quality assurance (achieves objective; iterative procedure, expert consultation…)

Evaluation (ex-post survey, peer review …)

Example of ex ante survey to identify drivers

Major drivers of change considered relevant by regional

stakeholders (here: 24 or 27 OpenNESS cases who wanted to use scenarios)

European scale drivers

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Participatory Scenarios

enable us to …

Integrate across topics, knowledge domains and scales

1) Mongolia: farmers, herders, mining companies, ministries (agric, environ, industry); (Challenges: knowledge of local practitioners vs. planning strategies of national ministries)

2) Central Germany: regional practitioners ranked regional drivers highest, while scientists favoured national / global factors as drivers(Challenges: Knowledge & perception integration – of mostly moderate assumptions of scientists and more creative / exploartiveassumptions of some practitioners � identify critical uncertaintiesto develop plausible scenarios

Survey of farmers and herders

Stakeholder excursion during WS: water quantity & quality

Meetings with Officials

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Participatory Scenarios

enable us to …

Assess potentially conflicting perspectives & tradeoffs in objectivesChallenges in the Mongolian process:

(1) limited land and water resources, but all sectors should expand activities (political objectives: representatives had to make these statements);

(2) strongly contrasting information about water availability and (rainfall & runoff)Quantifications of water / land demands varied up to 10 fold (OK for scenarios, problem

(3) water & land demands of key sectors agriculture, mining, livestock, urbanisation …

Scenario WS with ministries & planners

Knowledge domains /

perspectives difficult to

integrate, especially with

high level participants or

when including illegal

activities

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Participatory Scenarios

enable us to …

To bridge scales and develop scenarios for different purposes

a) scientific tool at EU scale

� comparative simulation studies

b) Eu level scenarios for application in European case studies (14)

Early involvement of drafts developed later involvement of high level

Regional stakeholders by scenario team EU stakeholders

Scenario WS with EU level stakeholders

Develop drafts of scenario

drivers & scenario storylines

Participatory Scenario Development

Successfully applied structure of multi-stakeholder workshops EU / national / regional levels

Briefing & input(Harmonising knowledge

levels of participants)

Group discussions (assumptions, drivers, key-

uncertainties, storylines)

Scenario adaptation

or development (storylines, set of drivers, maps, artwork)

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• Storylines

• Quantified scenario

assumptions

• Brochure (process & results)

• Scenario visualisation

• Homepage

• Data bases

• Framework for multi-scale

integrative scenario

development

• Scientific papers

Products of Participatory Scenario Development

Some take home messages

Stakeholders

mostly value the scenario process (learning, communication) just as much

as the products (scenario information & data in leaflets, presentations,

policy briefs, webpages ...)

agree that scenarios are an appropriate method to assess potential (land-

related) changes and their impacts

sometimes complain (1) about the complexity of the approach (especially

when models are involved) and (2) partly the lack of data e.g. to initiate a

regional scenario process and (3) limited possibility to put new knowledge

or desired pathways into practice (no capacity; not in the position to…)

In participatory scenario processes

it is sometimes difficult (1) to handle strong or dominant personalities and

strong opinions or (2) integrate conflicting perspectives / objectives

there are limited possibilities to address illegal activities (agricultural

expansion; water extraction; (gold) mining)