Passenger Rail Options for Polk County

Lakeland

Auburndale

Haines City

Five Mile Radius (ten diameter)

TAZ (centroids) by Drive Time0-5

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Passenger Rail Options For Polk Countyfo r t he Po l k Coun t y Tran spo r ta t i o n P lann i ng Organ i za t i o n

March 26, 2014Submitted by:

A t e c h n i ca l r epo r t fo r

TECHNICAL REPORT

PASSENGER RAIL OPTIONS FOR POLK COUNTY

Prepared for:

Prepared by:

MARCH 26, 2014


March 26, 2014 i

TABLE OF CONTENTS

INTRODUCTION AND BACKGROUND CONSIDERATIONS ....................................................... 1 PURPOSE ......................................................................................................................................................................................... 1

OVERVIEW ...................................................................................................................................................................................... 1

MATERIALS INVESTIGATED .......................................................................................................................................................... 2

APPROACH ..................................................................................................................................................................................... 2

THE VIABILITY FOR RAIL TRANSIT IN POLK COUNTY .............................................................. 3 TYPES OF RAIL TRANSIT ............................................................................................................................................................... 3

POLK COUNTY TRAVEL CHARACTERISTICS .............................................................................................................................. 4

CONFLICTS WITH FREIGHT OPERATIONS ................................................................................................................................ 5

FLORIDA DOT’S FUTURE CORRIDORS PROGRAM .................................................................................................................. 6

LINKAGES BETWEEN TRANSPORTATION AND LAND USE .................................................................................................... 6

PASSENGER RAIL STATION AREA DEMAND ANALYSIS ......................................................................................................... 7

ALTERNATIVE ALIGNMENTS AND OPERATIONAL CONCEPTS .............................................. 23 1. EXTENSION OF SUNRAIL INTO POLK COUNTY ............................................................................................................... 23

2. CONNECTING TO TBARTA/TAMPA BAY ........................................................................................................................... 25

3. REGIONAL TAMPA TO POLK COUNTY TO ORLANDO REGIONAL RAIL USING CSX RAIL LINES .......................... 28

4. I-4 CORRIDOR REGIONAL RAIL TO ORLANDO CBD ....................................................................................................... 29

5. I-4 CORRIDOR REGIONAL RAIL TO ORLANDO INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT ................................................................ 30

6. POSSIBLE EXTENSION OF ALL ABOARD FLORIDA ........................................................................................................... 31

7. HIGH SPEED RAIL .................................................................................................................................................................... 32

8. AMTRAK .................................................................................................................................................................................... 34

9. EXPRESS BUS CONNECTION TO SUNRAIL ........................................................................................................................ 34

10. I-4 BUS RAPID TRANSIT ALTERNATIVE .............................................................................................................................. 34

11. INTRA-POLK CONNECTION OPPORTUNITIES ................................................................................................................ 35

ACTIONS TO PRESERVE FUTURE OPTIONS FOR PASSENGER RAIL SERVICE ......................... 37 1. FURTHER STUDY OF EXTENSION OF SUNRAIL INTO POLK COUNTY .......................................................................... 37

2. PLAN FOR AN EXPRESS BUS FEEDER SYSTEM TO THE SUNRAIL POINCIANA STATION ........................................... 37

3. JOIN TBARTA ........................................................................................................................................................................... 38

4. PLAN FOR PREMIUM TRANSIT IN THE I-4 CORRIDOR ..................................................................................................... 38

5. CONTINUED APPLICATION OF REGULATIONS THAT PROMOTE TRANSIT SUPPORTIVE DEVELOPMENT ............. 38

6. REMAIN ENGAGED IN CSX FREIGHT RELOCATION STUDIES ........................................................................................ 38

7. REMAIN OPEN TO THE POSSIBILITY OF HIGH SPEED RAIL AT SOME FUTURE DATE ................................................. 38


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LIST OF FIGURES

FIGURE 1 – TEN MINUTE DRIVE-SHEDS FOR POLK COUNTY PASSENGER RAIL STATIONS .......................................................................... 8 FIGURE 2 - 2010 ACTIVITY UNIT (JOBS+POPULATION) PER ACRE BY TAZ........................................................................................... 10 FIGURE 3 - 2035 ACTIVITY UNIT (JOBS+POPULATION) DENSITY BY TAZ ............................................................................................. 11 FIGURE 4 - STATION DRIVESHED ACTIVITY UNIT DENSITY....................................................................................................................... 13 FIGURE 5 - SUMMARY OF THE PERCENTAGE OF THE WORKERS WHO RESIDE IN POLK STATION AREAS BY PLACE OF DESTINATION ....... 16 FIGURE 6 - PLACE OF WORK EMPLOYMENT DENSITY OF POLK COUNTY RESIDENTS OF ALL STATION AREAS ........................................ 17 FIGURE 7 - PLACE OF WORK EMPLOYMENT DENSITY OF POLK COUNTY RESIDENTS OF THE LAKELAND MARKET AREA ........................... 18 FIGURE 8 - PLACE OF WORK EMPLOYMENT DENSITY OF POLK COUNTY RESIDENTS OF THE AUBURNDALE MARKET AREA ...................... 19 FIGURE 9 - PLACE OF WORK EMPLOYMENT DENSITY OF POLK COUNTY RESIDENTS OF THE HAINES CITY MARKET AREA ....................... 20 FIGURE 10 - EXTENSION OF SUNRAIL INTO POLK COUNTY ................................................................................................................... 23 FIGURE 11 - A SUNRAIL ENGINE (SOURCE: HTTP://CORPORATE.SUNRAIL.COM/WELCOME/PAGE/BROCHURES) .................................. 24 FIGURE 12 - TBARTA TAMPA TO POLK COUNTY RAIL .......................................................................................................................... 27 FIGURE 13 - REGIONAL TAMPA TO POLK COUNTY TO ORLANDO REGIONAL RAIL USING CSX RAIL LINES ........................................... 28 FIGURE 14 - I-4 REGIONAL RAIL TO DOWNTOWN ORLANDO ............................................................................................................. 29 FIGURE 15 - I-4 REGIONAL RAIL TO ORLANDO INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT ............................................................................................. 30 FIGURE 16 – ALL ABOARD FLORIDA ROUTE MAP .................................................................................................................................. 31 FIGURE 17 - FLORIDA HIGH SPEED RAIL AUTHORITY VISION MAP ....................................................................................................... 33

LIST OF TABLES

TABLE 1- SUMMARY OF SOCIO-ECONOMIC TAZ DATA FOR STATION MARKET AREA DRIVE-SHEDS ....................................................... 13 TABLE 2 - ORIGIN DESTINATION SUMMARY OF PLACE OF WORK OF POLK COUNTY RESIDENTS PER STATION AREA............................. 15


March 26, 2014 iv


Lakeland

Auburndale

Haines City



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Introduction and Background Considerations


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INTRODUCTION AND BACKGROUND CONSIDERATIONS

PURPOSE

The primary purposes of this technical memorandum are three-fold: (1) to contribute an

assessment of alternatives to on-going discussions and interest in possibilities to introduce

passenger rail to Polk County; (2) to recommend immediate and short-term actions to preserve

future options for passenger rail service; and (3) to provide guidance related to passenger rail

opportunities as part of the upcoming 2040 update to the 2035 Mobility Vision Plan. A wide

range of previous study efforts have been reviewed and opportunities and constraints related to

the implementation of passenger rail service have been summarized. The findings of this document

are the result of an independent assessment conducted by Renaissance Planning Group of these

past efforts, existing and future conditions in Polk County and the decision-making, logistics,

timing, scope and financial elements of pursuing the implementation of passenger rail.

OVERVIEW

Polk County occupies a unique position along the I-4 corridor, with the major urbanized areas of

Orlando to the east and the Tampa Bay region to the west. In addition, Polk County has its own

medium-sized urban areas of Lakeland and Winter Haven and fifteen other municipalities, the

largest of which are Bartow, Haines City, and Auburndale. These all contribute to a countywide

population exceeding 620,000. While the majority of Polk County workers stay in the County for

their employment, there are significant movements of people to and from the east (Orange and

Osceola) and with Hillsborough to the west. Because of its prime location on the I-4 corridor, there

are also many long distance trips that cross Polk County

As Polk County has considered various transportation solutions, and as its neighbors to the east

and west have explored solutions of their own, various regional transit alternatives involving

passenger rail and bus service have become part of the discussion. This range of alternatives

includes technologies, service characteristics and stop locations that serve very different potential

markets.

Perhaps foremost and most immediate have been alternatives that link Polk County to central

Florida’s SunRail System being constructed to serve Volusia, Seminole, Orange and Osceola

Counties and the City of Orlando. Connecting to SunRail would provide travel alternatives for the

tens of thousands of people who move between Polk County and its neighbors to the north and

east. Commuter rail, of which SunRail is an example, can serve a regional and local market,

targeting work trip destinations and typically featuring stations two to three miles or more apart

from each other. The 2035 Polk Mobility Vision Plan envisions extending SunRail into Polk County.

Other systems that have been suggested include regional rail solutions linking Orlando, Polk

County, and the Tampa Bay region, with relatively few station locations. The 2035 Polk Mobility

Vision Plan includes a rail connection to Hillsborough County, as also included in the TBARTA

Master Plan. Some consideration also has been given to premium bus alternatives that might be

an initial building block toward ultimate implementation of passenger rail. Bus rapid transit

attempts to replicate many of the features of rail with rubber tired vehicles operating on

conventional asphalt or concrete lanes.


March 26, 2014 2

Still other alternatives that have been suggested include high speed rail and All Aboard Florida.

The Florida legislature created the Florida High Speed Rail Authority to plan and develop a

Florida high speed rail system. All Aboard Florida is a private sector initiative to provide intercity

passenger rail from Miami to Orlando, with intermediate stations in Fort Lauderdale and West

Palm Beach. More information on both of these efforts is provided in the Alternative Alignments

and Operational Concepts section of this memo below. These are designed primarily to serve

intercity markets and might offer transportation options for Polk County residents to travel to

Tampa, Orlando, Miami, and other more distant destinations. The 2035 Polk Mobility Vision Plan

includes a rail spur connection from the CSX A Line to the then-proposed high speed rail station in

the I-4 Corridor. Of course, Polk County currently has modest Amtrak service, which is oriented

primarily to long-distance intercity trips.

MATERIALS INVESTIGATED

A wide variety of sources were used to assemble information related to each of the alternatives.

This technical memorandum synthesizes and organizes information from these many sources to

identify possible actions for the Polk Transportation Planning Organization (TPO) as it moves

forward to plan for future transportation options. Among the sources reviewed were:

FDOT Rail Traffic Evaluation Study - Passenger Rail Options, Rail Relocation Options and

other relevant documents

Polk Rail Study

The transit elements of the current Polk 2035 Mobility Vision Plan

The Polk Transit My Ride Transit Development Plan

SunRail planning documents

Central Florida Commuter Rail Commission Interlocal Funding Agreement

Interlocal Governance Agreement for the Central Florida Commuter Rail Commission

Metroplan 2030 Long-Range Transportation Plan

The current service proposal for All Aboard Florida

Hillsborough County MPO 2035 Long Range Transportation Plan

Hillsborough Area Regional Transit (HART) plans

Tampa Bay Area Regional Transportation Authority (TBARTA) plans

A Framework for Transit Oriented Development in Florida

The US Census American Community Survey

The Longitudinal Employer-Household Dynamics Origin-Destination Employment Statistics

Florida High Speed Rail Authority Investment Grade Ridership Study

Florida DOT Future Corridors Tampa Bay to Central Florida Study Area Concept Report

APPROACH

In the sections that follow, each of the broad alternatives are described and evaluated in terms of

the associated opportunities and constraints. As appropriate to the individual alternative, specific

elements that are considered include: demand expectations; station location possibilities; transit

oriented development opportunities; conflicts with rail freight operations; and institutional

considerations.

Lakeland

Auburndale

Haines City



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The Viability For Rail Transit in Polk County


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THE VIABILITY FOR RAIL TRANSIT IN POLK COUNTY

This section breaks down the concept of passenger rail in Polk County into several areas of

consideration for the viability of initiating rail transit service. The section begins by defining

passenger rail transit types and introducing a number of topics that relate to opportunity, viability

and potential conflict. This information is followed by a demand assessment of the existing and

potential future market for passenger rail in Polk County. While not an exhaustive demand-side

analysis, the findings reveal a number of key points relating to the timing of initiating service and

the most fruitful potential areas to serve.

TYPES OF RAIL TRANSIT

There are a number of different types of rail and bus transit. Each type has its own purpose,

appropriate context and operational characteristics. The descriptions below provide some basic

context for the remainder of this report, including the demand analysis and the alternatives

presented in the next section. Commuter rail is the transit technology envisioned for Polk County

for the purposes of this demand analysis. Other transit modes and technologies are presented as

alternatives for providing regional transit service that connects Polk to other counties.

Commuter Rail

Commuter rail primarily serves rush hour trips connecting workers outside of the core of the urban

area with major job centers and central cities. SunRail in Orlando and TriRail in Miami are

examples of this technology. The service is cost effective relative to other types of rail transit as it

typically runs in existing rail rights-of-way. The trains are typically powered by a diesel

locomotive and include one or more passenger rail cars. The capacity of commuter rail service is

very flexible as numerous rail cars can be added. Considering that more than one train can run

per hour, capacity can vary based on need from several thousand passengers per hour to around

20,000 passengers per hour. Maximum speeds for this type of service depend on the rating of

the rail the trains operate on, but typically range between 45 and 65 miles per hour. Average

speeds depend on the number of stops on the route. Lengths of routes for existing services around

the country vary, but typically fall in the 20 to 80 mile range.

High Speed Rail

The primary purpose of high speed rail is intercity travel. The systems run on exclusive right-of-

way and must operate on tracks designed for the speeds the trains are capable of, which is up to

200 miles per hour. Capacity considerations are similar to commuter rail. High speed rail service

can span very long distances and is most successful around the world where it connects cities that

are high density, walkable and served by major urban transit systems.

Conventional Intercity Rail

This type of rail serves intercity travel and has a very small commuter component. Most of this

type of service in the U.S. is operated by Amtrak. The number of trains per day precludes this

service from being used for daily regional trips.


March 26, 2014 4

Light Rail and Heavy Rail

These technologies are not included in the presentation of alternatives in this report. Both serve

highly urbanized areas and are very expensive to implement. Light rail is powered by an

overhead electric catenary and can operate within street rights-of-way or on separate tracks.

Examples of this technology can be found in Dallas, Portland, Minneapolis, Charlotte among other

places. Heavy rail is powered by a third rail and thus has to operate in exclusive right-of-way

than does not allow for grade crossings. Examples of this technology can be found in New York,

Washington DC, Chicago and Atlanta.

Express Bus

This type of service is oriented toward longer commutes. The service typically has limited stops

and routes that are 10 to 25 miles long. Some express routes are longer, but they usually require

some level of coordination and cost sharing among a number of jurisdictions. Capacity of bus

service is limited to around 40 persons per vehicle. The reason this type of service is important to

the rail transit discussion is that bus service in a corridor typically precedes the development of

rail in a corridor. This is especially true where federal funds are sought for major rail investment

projects. Bus alternatives are presented in this report for this reason and because bus is a viable

alternative to some types of rail service.

POLK COUNTY TRAVEL CHARACTERISTICS

To consider the desirability of any options, it is necessary to first understand the travel origins and

destinations of trips in and out of Polk County. While different rail alternatives may differ in their

ability to attract riders, it is first appropriate to examine the total movement of people through

Polk County. There are a number of sources that can be used to understand the movement of

people in and through Polk County. Two sources, the American Community Survey and the

Longitudinal Employer-Household Origin-Destination Employment Statistics (LODES) contain useful

information about trips between home and work. Although these typically account for only about

a third of all trips, they constitute the majority of peak period travel.

American Community Survey Data

The American Community Survey is an annual survey of approximately 2.5 percent of U.S.

households. For meaningful statistical reliability, a three-year aggregation is necessary for county

level data, and a five-year aggregation for census tract data. The ACS, taken averaged over the

period 2006 to 2010, shows 18,550 Polk County residents working in Orange County; 12,200 in

Hillsborough County; 8,000 in Osceola County; and 1,330 in Lake County. The reverse flow

directions are also interesting, with 1,665 Orange County residents; 10,265 Hillsborough County

residents; 2,060 Osceola County residents; and 1,345 Lake County residents working in Polk

County. So while the work flows between Polk County and Hillsborough and Lake Counties are

relatively balanced, the work flows to Orange and Osceola Counties are quite pronounced with

many more people leaving Polk County for work. The ACS estimates that 191,985 Polk County

residents work within Polk County.

The American Community Survey also reports travel mode to work by county. For 2006 to 2010,

data for Polk County indicated work trip modes as:


March 26, 2014 5

80.7 percent drove alone

11.7 percent carpool

0.5 percent used public transportation

1.2 percent walked

2. 6 percent used taxi, motorcycle or other means, and

3.1 percent worked at home.

As indicated, work trip transit use in Polk County is very small, at 0.5 percent, or 1,250 persons.

For the most recent year, 2012, the percent is slightly higher, at a little over 0.6 percent. Fixed

route transit ridership in Polk County for all purposes totaled 1,670,000 trips in 2011. With

service provided Mondays through Saturdays, this would translate to approximately 5,600 trips

per day, with over half being for non-work purposes. This ridership is somewhat reflective of the

modest current availability of transit in Polk County. Plans to substantially upgrade the level of

transit service can definitely be expected to increase the amount of transit usage.

Longitudinal Employer-Household Origin-Destination Statistics (LODES) Data

The LODES data is not a survey, but rather is a compilation from federal administrative records. It

links residence location to work location by matching social security numbers of payroll records. It

includes all employment subject to state unemployment insurance laws. So it does not include self

employed and sole proprietors; federal, military, and railroad workers; and other employees

who are exempt from unemployment insurance laws. In general it is reported that the LODES data

includes about 90 percent of U.S. workers, though in certain locations it could be a much smaller

percentage. Another limitation of the LODES data is that employers with multiple job locations

sometimes report all employees at the central office. This can be particularly problematic with

organizations like school board employees or in some cases employers with multiple locations but

one administrative center. With these limitations understood, the LODES data can still be useful for

depicting general proportions of trip movements.

As might be expected, compared to the American Community Survey, the LODES data shows

significantly higher proportions of Polk residents working outside the County, with 27,371 in

Orange County; 19,837 in Hillsborough County; 6,205 in Osceola County; and 2,328 in Lake

County. In the reverse direction, it shows 6,291 Orange County residents; 15,133 Hillsborough

County residents; 4,182 Osceola County residents; and 2,466 Lake County residents working in

Polk County.

CONFLICTS WITH FREIGHT OPERATIONS

The negotiations with CSX that enabled the SunRail project to move forward relocated significant

CSX train movements from the A Line to the S Line. This served a positive purpose of allowing

SunRail to operate over sections that were previously heavily used by CSX freight movements. In

addition to the currently-planned SunRail alignment, it also resulted in reduction in train

movements as far west as Auburndale. In so doing, it created additional train movements between

Auburndale and Lakeland.

To address concerns of increased train movements through downtown Lakeland, FDOT District One

undertook their 2009 Florida DOT Rail Traffic Evaluation Study to explore options for relocating


March 26, 2014 6

freight movements in central Florida and also to examine future passenger rail alternatives. The

study included eight freight relocation alternatives, seven of which would reduce freight

movements on the A-Line as far west as Lakeland. The report indicated that the capital costs

associated with the relocation alternatives are very high, ranging from $639 million to $1.3

billion. It also reported that for all the alternatives the environmental impacts are high, with

impacts to the Green Swamp, taking of recreational trails, likely involvement of 4(f) lands, and

community impacts. While some of the alternatives reduce train activity through downtown

Lakeland, they generally do it at the expense of increased train activity through other

municipalities, which have voiced their own concerns.

Following this study, the FDOT identified two additional alternatives and evaluated the potential

effects to natural, cultural and community resources of each alternative using Florida’s Efficient

Transportation Decision Making (ETDM) process, in coordination with State and Federal

environmental resource agencies.

In 2012, the Polk Rail Study was initiated to further examine the ten freight rail alternatives

though a detailed planning, engineering and funding analysis. Of the ten alternatives, three

were considered most viable to maintain regional freight movement while minimizing impacts to

the community and the environment. These three long-term alternatives were identified for a

future Project Development and Environment (PD&E) Study. The study also identified short-term

solutions to be advanced for funding prioritization and implementation.

FLORIDA DOT’S FUTURE CORRIDORS PROGRAM

For several years the Florida DOT has been engaged in the Future Corridors Initiative, which is a

statewide effort to plan for new corridors and improvements to existing corridors to be able to

meet the transportation needs 50 years into the future. The I-4 Corridor is a major piece of the

Tampa Bay-Central Florida Super-Regional Corridor, which extends from the Tampa Bay Region,

through Polk County, to Orlando, and on to the Space Coast of Florida.

FDOT’s five point plan for moving forward includes developing an integrated strategy for

transforming I-4 to include consideration of a variety of managed lane alternatives, which could

include toll lanes, truck lanes, bus rapid transit and reversible lanes. It also includes developing

long term strategies to enhance passenger and freight rail service in the corridor. FDOT

specifically cites a passenger rail connection between Tampa and Orlando as something that

should remain part of the long term vision for the corridor. The planning efforts that have

occurred in Polk County are totally supportive of FDOT’s Future Corridors Program.

LINKAGES BETWEEN TRANSPORTATION AND LAND USE

Integrating transportation and land use is a critical consideration to the development of long-

range transportation plans. Low density sprawling suburban subdivisions necessitate a hierarchy

of roads and highways to serve land uses that are not economical to serve by public

transportation. As land uses become denser and feature mixes of land uses, the provision of

public transportation services becomes more feasible.

The Polk County Comprehensive Plan clearly recognizes the importance of transportation and

land use integration as it includes some very creative elements of transit supportive development


March 26, 2014 7

areas (TSDA). The Plan provides for density incentives for development in proximity to transit

service. The increases in density allowance are tied to location near or in a designated transit

center. To earn a TSDA designation, a development must: provide access to transit facilities;

incorporate design features that promote healthy communities; implement “complete street”

features; integrate pedestrian-oriented features, including sidewalks, trails or walkways; provide

high connectivity; and include a variety of housing choices including high density choices.

PASSENGER RAIL STATION AREA DEMAND ANALYSIS

Approach

A demand analysis was conducted to assess the potential demand for ridership from potential

Polk County passenger rail station areas. The approach first defined a realistic travel-shed,

larger than a pedestrian realm that would be representative of the market area for a given

station. Second, an assessment of the 2010 and 2035 socio-economic makeup of each of these

station area market areas and how they compare with the FDOT TOD Framework was conducted.

The last step of the demand analysis evaluated station area travel characteristics in terms of

origins and destinations of Polk County residents to their place of employment, and specifically to

target rail destination areas in downtown Tampa and Orlando. These demand analysis steps are

described below along with some key observations.

Defining Station Market Areas

Three station areas were identified for Lakeland, Auburndale and Haines City, representing three

population and employment centers, approximately ten miles apart along the rail alignment in

Polk County. Automobile drive-times along the road network were calculated in GIS using

network analyst, and the Traffic Analysis Zones (TAZs) were intersected with these drive-sheds to

associate relative five and ten minute drive times with certain TAZs. Figure 1 – Ten Minute Drive-

sheds for Polk County Passenger Rail Stations is a map of the TAZs for each station area that fell

within either the five and ten minute drive-shed of one of the stations. A ten minute drive roughly

equates to a five mile diameter radius, and represents a reasonable short-drive market demand

area serving each station. Using a drive-shed larger than ten minutes results in more overlap

between stations. The market for a commuter rail station is larger than a typical TOD walk/bike

shed, and represents a short drive time. Drive times longer than ten minutes, though possible,

begin to erode the efficiencies of a combined auto-rail commute trip.


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Figure 1 – Ten Minute Drive-sheds for Polk County Passenger Rail Stations


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Socio-Economic Makeup of Station Areas: 2010 and 2035

The activity unit densities of Polk County TAZs were evaluated for 2010 and 2035 model socio-

economic data to determine where there might be densities that meet the density thresholds for

premium transit as outlined in “A Framework for Transit Oriented Development in Florida” (FDOT,

March 2011). Activity units are a combination of jobs and population, sometimes referred to as

the 24-hour population. The target density thresholds for Neighborhood Center commuter rail

per the FDOT TOD Framework are between 9-12 units/acre of either housing or employment for

commuter rail transit type and 12-15 for the heavy rail. Figure 2 and Figure 3 show activity unit

per acre densities for TAZs in Polk County. The bright red colors on these maps indicates at least

a unit density of between 9 and 15, which is appropriate for commuter rail for a Neighborhood

Center place type, which is the place type that correlates most with the population centers

currently in Polk County. The black and brightest reds represents densities that could possibly

support commuter rail transit. These activity unit density maps include, in red, the boundaries of

the ten minute drive-shed of the potential passenger rail station areas in Polk County.


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Figure 2 - 2010 Activity Unit (Jobs+Population) Per Acre by TAZ


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Figure 3 - 2035 Activity Unit (Jobs+Population) Density by TAZ


March 26, 2014 12

The analysis indicates that there are areas in the station market sheds that approach densities to

support commuter rail, as indicated by the black and brightest reds in Figure 2 and Figure 3. This

prevalence of higher density TAZs is especially true in the Lakeland station area, somewhat true in

the Auburndale station area, which includes downtown and other parts of Winter Haven, and less

true in the Haines City station area. The socio-economic summary of each station area is

presented in Table 1. A comparison of the activity unit densities in those station areas to the

FDOT TOD Framework threshold of 9 units/acre is shown in Figure 4. The Figure shows the

densities in the rightmost column of the Table above. There are many individual TAZs in the station

drive-sheds that exceed densities supportive of commuter rail. However, the average gross

activity unit densities are below the 9-12 unit/acre range for commuter rail in a neighborhood

center place type in the FDOT Framework for TOD. Lakeland has the highest average gross

density at 5.8 activity units per acre in 2035. It should be noted that station areas in the FDOT

TOD Framework were based on a half-mile radius area, while the 10 minute drive-shed for the

commuter rail stations is considerably larger, approaching a five mile radius. Therefore, densities

can be expected to be on order of magnitude less. It is therefore important to view the potential

total activity units (sum of population and employment) served under each station’s market area,

which range between 119,997-305,838 per station area drive-shed in year 2035. The total

potential activity units for the entire Polk County station market areas are over half a million in

2035. These numbers represent a high latent ridership demand of people and jobs that may

utilize passenger rail in the future.


March 26, 2014 13

Table 1- Summary of Socio-economic TAZ Data for Station Market Area Drive-sheds

Figure 4 - Station Driveshed Activity Unit Density

0.00

1.00

2.00

3.00

4.00

5.00

6.00

7.00

8.00

9.00

Lakeland Auburndale Haines City All Stations Threshold for Rail

Act

ivit

y U

nit

Den

sity

/Acr

e

Station Driveshed Activity Unit Density

2010 2035

10 Min Driveshed 52,300 Acres

Population and Employment Totals Gross Density (Jobs or Pop/Acre)

Year Employment Population

Activity

Units Employment Popluation

Activity Unit

Density

2010 89,574 116,119 205,693 1.7127 2.2202 3.9329

2035 122,269 183,569 305,838 2.3378 3.5099 5.8477




Activity


Activity Unit

Density

2010 44,167 69,998 114,165 0.8445 1.6446 2.6824

2035 55,152 88,800 143,952 1.0545 2.0864 3.3822




Activity


Activity Unit

Density

2010 20,170 52,589 72,759 0.3857 1.0564 1.4616

2035 32,265 87,732 119,997 0.6169 1.7623 2.4105

10 MinDriveshed 142,825 Acres



Activity

Units Employment Population

Activity Unit

Density

2010 152,197 236,847 389,044 1.0656 1.6583 2.7239

2035 206,993 357,992 564,985 1.4493 2.5065 3.9558 All

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March 26, 2014 14

Origin-Destination Summary of Polk Resident’s Place of Work

The American Community Survey data presented in the previous travel characteristics section

observed that a majority of Polk County residents have their place of employment within the

county. To better understand where the residents of the specific station market area were

commuting to work, the US Census LODES employment database was queried for place of work

for selection areas for each of the station drive-sheds and one for all Polk station area sheds

combined. Five station area polygons were then drawn to represent potential rail destinations in

downtown Tampa and Orlando to identify the draw of specific destinations for Polk County

commuters, and distinguish them from Orange or Hillsborough County as general destinations. All

these data queries, as well as destination rail polygon are illustrated in the place of work

employment density maps below (Figure 6 through Figure 9), and are summarized in Table 2.

The conclusions that can be drawn from the numbers in Table 2 do not make a compelling present

day argument for a strong commuter linkage between Polk County residents and the five rail

destination areas identified for downtown Tampa and Orlando based on commuter travel alone.

The column to the left identifies workplace destinations of Polk County residents living within the

indicated station areas. The cells that are outlined in the far right column of Table 2 show the

percent of total for all station areas. Only 0.6% of all Polk County station area residents

commute to downtown Tampa rail destinations; and only 0.8% of Polk County station area

residents commute to downtown Orlando rail destinations. Hillsborough and Orange County are

popular places of work for Polk County station area residents at 10.6% and 9.4% of total, but

these are large counties, and these places of work are not within an easy walk of a destination

rail station making them more likely to be auto-dependent trips. The majority of station area

residents (55.7%) have their place of work in Polk County.


March 26, 2014 15

Destination Summary

Origin of Workers by Place of Residence

Origin of Workers by Place of Residence - Percent Total

Destination - Place of Work

Auburn-dale

Haines City

Lake-land

All Stations

Auburn-dale

Haines City

Lake-land

All Stations

Hardee County 58 70 84 211 0.2% 0.5% 0.2% 0.2%

Highlands County 172 159 198 518 0.7% 1.1% 0.4% 0.6%

Lake County 368 186 475 1,014 1.4% 1.3% 1.0% 1.2%

Manatee County 125 146 406 672 0.5% 1.0% 0.9% 0.8%

Okeechobee County 10 21 42 72 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%

Osceola County 731 799 462 1,953 2.9% 5.6% 1.0% 2.3%

Pasco County 190 106 717 1,002 0.7% 0.7% 1.5% 1.2%

Pinellas County 417 329 1,371 2,102 1.6% 2.3% 2.9% 2.4%

Sumter County 48 25 59 131 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.2%

Hillsborough County 1,872 806 5,584 8,165 7.3% 5.7% 11.7% 9.4%

Orange County 3,295 2,987 3,021 9,136 12.9% 21.1% 6.3% 10.6%

Downtown Tampa 100 41 310 443 0.4% 0.3% 0.6% 0.5%

Ybor City 12 3 36 51 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1%

Total Tampa Dest 112 44 346 494 0.4% 0.3% 0.7% 0.6%

Downtown Orlando 260 124 182 551 1.0% 0.9% 0.4% 0.6%

Florida Hospital 45 21 13 75 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1%

Sand Lake 18 8 15 40 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%

Total Orlando Dest 323 153 210 666 1.3% 1.1% 0.4% 0.8%

Polk County 15,953 5,734 27,028 48,228 62.2% 40.4% 56.6% 55.7%

Remaining Counties 1,119 2,202 7,415 11,063 5.9% 17.1% 15.1% 12.8%

Total Workers Living in Polk

25,628 14,182 47,754 86,587 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%

Table 2 - Origin Destination Summary of Place of Work of Polk County Residents Per Station Area

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, OnTheMap Application and Longitudinal Employer-Household Dynamics (LEHN) Origin-

Destination Employment Statistics (LODES) (Beginning of Quarter Employment, 2nd Quarter of 2002-2011).

Distance/Direction report for Counts and Density of Work Locations for Primary Jobs in Home Selection Area (2011

employment). Geography exports were census block points containing location of work by residence of a given Polk

County 10 minute station area drive-shed.

The following notes further explain some of the sources and assumptions behind the origins and

destinations summary reflected in Table 2.

Hillsborough County and Orange County numbers in the listing of all counties don’t include

jobs in the rail station areas;

Station areas are defined by a drive-shed of 10 minutes to each station area. There is some

minor overlap between adjacent station area drive-sheds;

The "All Stations" drive-shed eliminates overlap in drive-sheds between stations and treats

the study area as one large station area; and

The LODES query results were summarized by Florida County, with five station area

designation polygons created to target destination areas near passenger rail stations.


March 26, 2014 16

Figure 5 - Summary of the Percentage of the Workers who Reside in Polk Station Areas by Place of Destination

Figure 6 through 8 below are employment density maps generated by the LODES queries for

station area drive-sheds in Polk County. The red heat maps show the employment density of

residents in a Polk County station area drive-shed. There are four maps in all, one for all stations

combined and one for each of the three individual stations. The red labeled numbers on the maps

represent the actual number of workers in an area that reside in the respective Polk County

station area. The employment density maps are a visual representation of the figures summarized

in Table 2, but they give a more nuanced and detailed indication of where people in Polk are

travelling to for work, based on their closest passenger rail station. Again, it is evident from these

maps that many who live in Polk County also work in the county, while there are clearly draws to

employment areas east and west along the I-4 corridor for the more active areas of Orange and

Hillsborough Counties.

Hillsborough County , 9.4% Orange County ,

10.6%

Tampa Rail Destinations,

0.6%

Orlando Rail Destinations,

0.8%

Polk County, 55.7%

Other , 23.0%


March 26, 2014 17

Figure 6 - Place of Work Employment Density of Polk County Residents of All Station Areas


March 26, 2014 18

Figure 7 - Place of Work Employment Density of Polk County Residents of the Lakeland Market Area


March 26, 2014 19

Figure 8 - Place of Work Employment Density of Polk County Residents of the Auburndale Market Area


March 26, 2014 20

Figure 9 - Place of Work Employment Density of Polk County Residents of the Haines City Market Area


March 26, 2014 21

Key Observations

The case for present day (2011 data) ridership potential from Polk station areas to rail

destination areas in Tampa or Orlando is not strong based on the commuting patterns that

don’t present high correlations. There are not that many people living in Polk County who

currently drive to destinations within the rail station areas in Tampa (downtown Tampa and

Ybor City) and Orlando (downtown Orlando, Florida Hospital, and Sand Lake), as

summarized in Figure 4 above.

The future potential for latent ridership demand for Polk stations makes a more optimistic

case for passenger rail in Polk County if one views the total activity units (jobs and people)

who live or work within the market areas of a Polk County rail destination. By 2035, the

projections estimate over half a million (564,985) jobs and people living and working within

a short ten minute drive of the three Polk station areas. This represents a substantial body of

potential ridership demand to and from rail destinations in the Orlando and Tampa areas, as

well as between Polk County stations understanding that a majority of Polk County residents

also work in the county.


March 26, 2014 22


Lakeland

Auburndale

Haines City



5-10

10-15

15-20

Alternative Alignments and Operational Concepts


March 26, 2014 23

ALTERNATIVE ALIGNMENTS AND OPERATIONAL CONCEPTS

1. EXTENSION OF SUNRAIL INTO POLK COUNTY

The creation of the SunRail commuter rail system in central Florida has gained a great deal of

interest across the State. The completed system will span 61.5 miles from DeLand in Volusia

County to Poinciana in Osceola County. The first segment set to open in 2014 will operate

between DeBary to Sand Lake Road. A second phase, planned to open in 2016 will extend from

DeBary to DeLand in the north and from Sand Lake Road to Poinciana in the south. It will operate

double-decker passenger cars on 30 minute headways during morning and evening peak periods

and on two hour headways during the middle of the day.

SunRail is investing heavily in high quality on-board passenger amenities, including

accommodations for luggage, bicycles, wireless internet, and restrooms. Stations, which are

owned by Florida DOT and operated and maintained by local governments, are designed to be

comfortable and secure, but otherwise modest in construction cost. They will include platform

canopies to provide shade from the sun, ticket vending machines to facilitate fare payment, water

fountains, emergency phones and closed circuit cameras, and system announcement signs and

speakers.

Figure 10 - Extension of SunRail into Polk County


March 26, 2014 24

SunRail will operate with state of

the art technology, including

smart fare cards that use tap

on/tap off technology. The base

fare will be $2.00, with an

addition $1.00 charge each time

a county boundary is crossed.

The system will provide discounts

for frequent riders, seniors,

children and people with

disabilities. Because the system is

using smart fare cards, it would

be feasible at some time in the

future to implement more

complex fare structures.

The cost of the system includes $432 million to purchase the tracks from CSX and $615 million in

Phase I capital costs, with a federal share of 50 percent and the remainder shared equally

between the State of Florida and local governments. For the first seven years, the state will pay

all operations and maintenance costs, with the local governments taking over 100 percent of the

responsibilities in year eight.

When considering extension of SunRail into Polk County, there are two reasonable possibilities.

One would be an extension to a new station at Haines City. Depending on the station location,

this would amount to an approximate 15 mile extension to the currently-planned 61.5 mile

SunRail system. A practical advantage of this alternative is that there are only five freight trains

per day, both presently and well into the future, on this segment of the CSX A Line. In support of

commuter rail, the City Commission of Haines City recently passed a resolution requesting that

SunRail consider future expansion to the City of Haines City and requesting Florida DOT to

undertake necessary planning and environmental studies.

The other possibility would extend SunRail much further into Polk County and would include a new

station in Auburndale and the existing downtown Lakeland Amtrak Station. Since there are

currently 20 freight train movements per day west of Auburndale and an estimated 27 daily

freight trains in 2030, operating passenger rail over these tracks would be significantly more

difficult.

The FDOT Rail Evaluation Study notes that significant capital investments would be required,

including new track with passing sidings from Lakeland to Auburndale, track improvements to

Poinciana, stations with platforms and parking, and additional rail vehicles. It also notes resistance

from CSX in allowing passenger rail on the rail section west of Auburndale.

Compared to year 2030 SunRail ridership estimates of 2,350 for the Poinciana Station, the 2009

FDOT Study estimated year 2030 boardings of 2,130 for a SunRail extension from Poinciana to

Lakeland, with 673 in Haines City, 500 in Auburndale, and 273 in Lakeland. It also estimated

684 boardings from the SunRail Phases I and II stations traveling west and alighting at a Polk

Figure 11 - A SunRail Engine (Source:

http://corporate.sunrail.com/welcome/page/brochures)


March 26, 2014 25

County station. Finally, it estimated that 760 of the 2130 daily trips would be internal to Polk

County.

Opportunities and Advantages

Provides travel alternative from Polk County to Osceola, Orlando and other locations.

Creates opportunities for transit oriented development at station areas.

Depending on length of extension, links several cities and towns within Polk County.

Makes use of existing right-of-way.

Constraints and Disadvantages

Requires an agreement with CSX to operate passenger rail on existing freight tracks.

Freight trains serving the CSX Winter Haven Intermodal Logistics Center will use portions of

the A-line tracks from Auburndale to the west creating greater conflicts with potential

passenger rail. It is estimated that west of Auburndale there will be 20 daily freight trains,

growing to 27 by 2030, while east of Auburndale there would be five now and into the

future.

Requires new track with passing sidings for passenger rail from Lakeland to Auburndale.

There are 31 grade crossings of the CSX A-Line in Polk County. While the addition of

passenger rail would increase roadway delays at these locations, passenger trains would be

short in contrast, so individual location delays would be relatively small.

Requires substantially modifying the existing Central Florida Commuter Rail Commission

Interlocal Funding Agreement. This agreement requires the Orange County, Osceola County,

Seminole County Volusia County, and the City of Orlando to assume all obligations of

management, operations, maintenance beginning in year eight. In addition, each of the local

government partners contributed significantly to the initial capital funding, in amounts ranging

from $13.7 million from the City of Orlando to $46.2 million from Seminole County.

Presumably if SunRail was extended into Polk County, similar contributions and obligations

by Polk County would be anticipated.

Requires substantially modifying the existing Interlocal Governance Agreement for Creation

of the Central Florida Commuter Rail Commission, which establishes a governing board, a

technical advisory committee, and a customer advisory committee. The Interlocal Governance

Agreement also defines formulas for sharing of annual operating deficits by local

governments based on the average respective shares of passengers embarking and

disembarking at stations in each jurisdiction on a daily basis and during peak hours.

As a nuance of the agreement for sharing operating deficits, since they are prorated based

on boarding and alighting passengers, member jurisdictions may find themselves subsidizing

riders from adjacent jurisdictions, particularly since free parking is planned at park and ride

stations. This effect could be especially noticeable near county boundaries, since there is a

one dollar surcharge when a boundary is crossed.

2. CONNECTING TO TBARTA/TAMPA BAY

The Tampa Bay Area Regional Transportation Authority (TBARTA) was created by the Florida

Legislature in 2007 to develop and implement a Regional Transportation Master Plan for the

seven-county West Central Florida region consisting of Citrus, Hernando, Hillsborough, Manatee,

Pasco, Pinellas and Sarasota Counties. At the time, Polk County had opted out of joining TBARTA,


March 26, 2014 26

as the financial obligations at the time were unclear. The Polk County TPO recently moved to seek

to become a member of TBARTA. This will require changes to state statutes that created TBARTA.

Presumably legislation will be introduced in 2014 to add Polk County to TBARTA. The existing

statute that created TBARTA specifies membership on the TBARTA Board, which includes:

The Florida DOT District Secretary of either District One or District Seven, appointed by the

Florida DOT Secretary;

An elected official appointed by each of the member county commissions—Polk County would

want to have this same representation;

A representative of the West Central Florida MPO Chairs Coordinating Committee—of which

Polk County is a member;

The mayor or mayor designee of the largest cities within the service areas of Pinellas

Suncoast Transit Authority and the Hillsborough Area Regional Transit Authority;

A two-year rotating membership shared by Manatee and Sarasota Counties and served by

a mayor or designee of the largest cities in those counties—Polk County would want to have

some form of representation from either the newly integrated Polk Transit System or one or

more of the largest cities, presumably Lakeland and Winter Haven; and

Four business representatives appointed by the Governor.

TBARTA has broad powers authorized under state statute. These powers include eminent domain,

the ability to issue bonds, collect fares and tolls, accept grants, and to own and operate

transportation infrastructure. When TBARTA was created it was appropriated an initial budget

by the legislature. Subsequently, Governor Scott vetoed the continuation of TBARTA’s ability to

rollover unexpended funds. As a result, TBARTA has been reliant on grants from FDOT and other

agencies to undertake studies and to fund its operation. There have not been requirements for

member governments to help to fund TBARTA. The statutes that created TBARTA do not address

the prospect of assessing membership or per capita fees of its members.

The TBARTA Master Plan includes a long-distance commuter oriented rail connection to the east

from Hillsborough County. The current alignment mapped onto the TBARTA Master Plan shows the

rail operating along CSX tracks, separated from I-4, and entering Polk County in the Lakeland

Area. It also shows express bus service operating in managed lanes on I-4. Given the interest in

long term rail opportunities by TBARTA, it is prudent that Polk County become a full participant.


March 26, 2014 27

Figure 12 - TBARTA Tampa to Polk County Rail

The 2009 FDOT Study estimated Year 2030 total ridership of 3,732 based on stations at Tampa

Union Station, Mango/I-75, Plant City, County Line Road, and Lakeland. Of these, 341were

estimated to originate in Lakeland or at County Line Road.


Provides connections for travel between Polk County and Hillsborough County.

Strengthens economic linkages between the two counties.

Uses existing rights-of-way.

Creates potential opportunity for transit oriented development at station areas.


Requires legislature to change state statute to add Polk County to membership of TBARTA.

County would need to appoint representatives to the Authority and to its advisory

committees.

Requires negotiation with CSX for use of tracks, or adjacent operation in CSX right-of-way

on separate track.

Necessitates the creation of governance and financial agreements for operation of commuter

rail between Hillsborough and Polk Counties.

May be infeasible due to increased freight traffic on CSX lines.

Currently 18 daily freight train movements west of Lakeland and 20 daily movements to the

east of Lakeland.

The forecast for 2030 are 25 trains west of Lakeland and 27 east of Lakeland.

Large number of at grade crossings.

Need to construct adequate stations, platforms, parking.


March 26, 2014 28

3. REGIONAL TAMPA TO POLK COUNTY TO ORLANDO REGIONAL RAIL USING

CSX RAIL LINES

The 2009 FDOT Rail Study also considered regional intercity rail service using the CSX A Line and

existing Amtrak rail stations in Tampa, Lakeland, Kissimmee, and downtown Orlando. This

alternative was not envisioned as specifically a commuter oriented service, rather as a

multipurpose service that would operate on a consistent schedule across the time of day, with

headways ranging from 90 to 150 minutes and a travel times from Lakeland to Tampa at 30

minutes and from Lakeland to Orlando at 60 minutes. Ridership for the year 2030 was estimated

at 3,106 daily, including 1,231 daily boardings in Tampa, 734 in Lakeland, 456 in Kissimmee,

and 685 in Orlando.

Figure 13 - Regional Tampa to Polk County to Orlando Regional Rail Using CSX Rail Lines


Provides connections linking the four counties.

Strengthens economic linkages between the four counties.

Uses existing rights-of-way and stations.

Creates some opportunity for transit oriented development at station areas.

Provides connectivity similar to high speed rail at a fraction of the cost (albeit a lower quality

of service).


March 26, 2014 29


Limited stops within Polk County.

Limited in providing peak hour service for commuters.

Requires careful coordination with SunRail operations.

Creates potentially problematic joint use of high volume freight lines west of Auburndale.

4. I-4 CORRIDOR REGIONAL RAIL TO ORLANDO CBD

As defined in the 2009 FDOT Rail Study, this option would operate similar to the previous one,

but would make use of the I-4 median from Tampa to central Polk County, where a new connector

would be built to tie into the CSX A Line near Auburndale. From there it would continue to

Orlando. It would include new stations in downtown Tampa and along I-4 in Lakeland, but could

use existing stations in Kissimmee and downtown Orlando. Estimated Year 2030 ridership would

amount to 3,204, with 725 boardings in Polk County.

Figure 14 - I-4 Regional Rail to Downtown Orlando


Avoids use of heavily travelled CSX A Line west of Auburndale.

Takes advantage of I-4 right-of-way.





March 26, 2014 30

Requires careful coordination with SunRail operating schedules.

Comparatively unattractive for future transit oriented development with stations within limited

access right-of-way.

FDOT is moving forward with implementation of plans for managed lanes on large sections

of the I-4 medians. Once managed lanes are implemented it may be difficult to reclaim them

for use by passenger rail.

5. I-4 CORRIDOR REGIONAL RAIL TO ORLANDO INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT

This alternative from the 2009 FDOT Study has similar operating characteristics as the two

preceding alternatives, but makes use of the I-4 median and the Orlando – Orange County

Expressway Authority’s (OOCEA) Greeneway for the majority of its route. It would therefore

require new stations in Lakeland, Orlando Airport, the Orange County Line, and downtown

Tampa. Year 2030 daily ridership was estimated at 3,086, with 754 boardings in Polk County.

Figure 15 - I-4 Regional Rail to Orlando International Airport


Uses I-4 and OOCEA Greenway, minimizing (but not eliminating) the need for additional

right-of-way.

Provides good access for Polk County residents to Orlando International Airport.




March 26, 2014 31


Comparatively unattractive for future transit oriented development with stations within limited

access right-of-way.

If this alternative was to allow riders to transfer to SunRail and access Downtown Orlando,

an expensive transfer station would be necessary.

FDOT is moving forward with implementation of plans for managed lanes on large sections

of the I-4 medians. Once managed lanes are implemented, it may be difficult to reclaim

them for use by passenger rail.

6. POSSIBLE EXTENSION OF ALL ABOARD FLORIDA

All Aboard Florida is a private sector project

being developed by Florida East Coast

Industries to provide intercity passenger rail

from Miami to Orlando, with intermediate

stations in Fort Lauderdale and West Palm

Beach. The system will use existing FEC tracks

between Miami and Brevard County and new

tracks from there to Orlando International

Airport. They expect to operate hourly service

from early morning to late evening, with a

three hour travel time between Miami and

Orlando.

All Aboard Florida will be a privately

operated system that expects to operate at a

profit, including both passenger rail service and

associated station area development

opportunities. The organization has been non-committal in the face of expressed desires to extend

their service from Orlando to Tampa as it is a potential second phase of development.

Preliminary maps from All Aboard Florida do indicate potential future expansion to Jacksonville

and Tampa. Should they ultimately extend to Tampa, Polk County should be in a position to

advocate for a station of its own. Of course extension from Orlando to Tampa would need to

find suitable rights-of-way in which to operate. It would seem that the most logical corridor would

be in the I-4 right-of-way, which has already been preserved for future multimodal alternatives

and would permit relatively high operating speeds.


Provides high speed travel to Tampa, Orlando, Miami, Fort Lauderdale, and West Palm

Beach.

Provides opportunities for station-area development associated with intercity travel, or

possibly a major attraction in Polk County.



Figure 16 – All Aboard Florida Route Map

Image source: www.allaboardflorida.com


March 26, 2014 32


If station was located in I-4 right-of-way, opportunities for transit oriented development

would be somewhat limited, though the limitations might be overcome.

Since All Aboard Florida is a private enterprise, Polk County, working jointly with

Hillsborough County, would need to provide a strong case that there would be sufficient

ridership and development opportunities for Florida East Coast Industries to warrant their

investment.

7. HIGH SPEED RAIL

The possibilities for high speed rail in Central Florida have a long history. High speed rail plans

go back to the mid-1980s, and have experienced repeated stop-starts, including the passage

and subsequent repeal of a state constitutional amendment to construct a high speed rail system.

When the State of Florida refused to accept federal funds for an initial Tampa to Orlando

segment, it placed high speed rail in the I-4 corridor on the back burner for many years to come.

Previously, efforts had been underway to protect the median of the I-4 corridor as a route for

high speed rail. However, depending on the desire of future Florida leadership, it could be

quickly resurrected. If there is ever a high speed rail line between Tampa and Orlando, Polk

County should be able to successfully receive a commitment for one (and only one) station.

Historically, there had been much discussion about the best location for a Polk County station. It is

reasonable to assume that any future high speed rail station would be located in the I-4 corridor.


March 26, 2014 33

Figure 17 - Florida High Speed Rail Authority Vision Map

Source: http://www.floridabullettrain.com/fhsra/2_projectstatus.html

As part of the planning for high speed rail, the legislature had created a Florida High Speed Rail

Authority to plan and develop a Florida high speed rail system. As proposed, the initial system

would have had stations in Tampa, Lakeland, and several in the Orlando area, including Orlando

International Airport. Two independent ridership forecasts were performed corroborating results.

Ridership forecasts for the Year 2025 showed total intercity ridership in range of 44,650

passengers per day. Of these, 14,250 would travel between Lakeland and Tampa and 12,300

between Lakeland and Orlando.


Provides greater accessibility to Tampa and Orlando.

As most recently proposed, provides easy access to Orlando International Airport.

If developed as part of a larger system, provides greater accessibility to additional high

speed rail cities.

Provides opportunities for station-area development associated with intercity travel, or

possibly a major attraction in Polk County.

With adequate circulator systems, enhances accessibility to Polk County attractions.

Anticipates much higher ridership, likely due to shorter travel times.


March 26, 2014 34




Would need to overcome current political opposition.

Need to develop station area facilities, parking, and bus feeder service.

8. AMTRAK

Amtrak operates intercity passenger transportation to many cities across the United States. Polk

County is currently served by Amtrak stations in Lakeland and in Winter Haven. Lakeland is

served by one train in each direction daily, with westbound service to Tampa at 11:38 a.m. and

eastbound service departing at 5:35 p.m. Winter Haven is served by two trains in each direction

daily. Southbound trains depart Winter Haven at 1:43 pm and 2:24 p.m. Northbound service

departs Winter Haven at 12:10 p.m. and at 3:44 p.m. With this highly limited service, Amtrak

provides a useful intercity service, but is impractical for normal every day trips. During FY 2013,

there were 22,829 boardings and alightings in Lakeland and 22,025 in Winter Haven,

translating to a daily total for Polk County slightly more than 120.

9. EXPRESS BUS CONNECTION TO SUNRAIL

Polk Transit has recently added limited fixed route service between Poinciana and Haines City.

When SunRail Phase II opens to the Poinciana station, express bus service connections could be

implemented from several park and ride locations in Polk County to the SunRail Poinciana station.

As envisioned, the express bus schedules would be time-coordinated with trains arriving and

departing from Poinciana to minimize transfer time. When compared to a commuter rail

extension, there are some opportunities and advantages and some constraints and

disadvantages.


Ability to test demand for access to SunRail and as demand is demonstrated could build

confidence in extending SunRail.

Development of park and ride locations in Lakeland, Auburndale and Haines City.

Over time, could develop feeder routes to park and ride stations.

Avoidance of potentially challenging negotiations with CSX.

Limited additional infrastructure needed.


Lower opportunity for transit oriented development.

Lower perceived vehicle amenity than passenger rail.

May require agreement with Osceola County to assist with SunRail operating subsidy and to

allow shuttle bus operation at Poinciana station.

10. I-4 BUS RAPID TRANSIT ALTERNATIVE

The County could pursue the implementation of premium bus transit in the I-4 corridor connecting

to Orlando and Tampa. This alternative would likely require the creation of park and ride


March 26, 2014 35

facilities in proximity to I-4. To maintain the highest performance, I-4 park and ride locations

should be limited in number so that trip travel time can be minimized.


Can be phased in as an express bus system using existing traffic lanes, albeit subject to the

same delays as auto traffic.

As managed lanes are implemented in the I-4 corridor, premium bus rapid transit could be

included.

Provide a demand benchmark for premium transit. If warranted by high utilization, transition

to passenger rail could be considered at some time in the future.

Potential for connections to amusement park and tourism-related employment that is not well

served by SunRail alignment.


Would not be expected to create the same level of transit oriented development

opportunities as a passenger rail system might.

Operation in I-4 corridor further dampens potential for transit oriented development.

11. INTRA-POLK CONNECTION OPPORTUNITIES

Several of these rail alternatives can add opportunities for travel between Lakeland, Auburndale

and Haines City. These could supplement the service provided by the Polk Transit bus system

service The My Ride Consolidated Transit Development Plan recommends significant upgrades to

intra-county service, including premium BRT in selected locations. Polk County would be well

served by the improved bus system as the backbone for intra-county services, which in the long

run could be supplemented by passenger rail.


March 26, 2014 36


Lakeland

Auburndale

Haines City



5-10

10-15

15-20

Actions to Preserve Future Options For Passenger Rail Service


March 26, 2014 37

ACTIONS TO PRESERVE FUTURE OPTIONS FOR PASSENGER RAIL SERVICE

There are a number of actions that could be taken to facilitate future implementation of

passenger rail in Polk County. While current travel desires between Polk County and Orlando or

Polk County and the Tampa Bay Region may not be sufficient to justify major investments in new

rail infrastructure in the immediate timeframe, there are actions the County could take to

incrementally develop long term passenger rail as part of the mix of transportation solutions.

1. FURTHER STUDY OF EXTENSION OF SUNRAIL INTO POLK COUNTY

The interest expressed in extending SunRail to Haines City merits further investigation. Existing

and projected freight movements on this section are modest. In addition, demand estimates

included in the 2009 FDOT Study show the highest potential demand from Haines City and

eastern Polk County.

The County might consider undertaking a two-phase study effort first focusing on the extension of

SunRail to Haines City and subsequently extending beyond Haines City to Auburndale and

Lakeland. As noted earlier, west of Auburndale the conflicts with freight rail traffic are much

more severe.

The study would identify physical infrastructure needed to accomplish an extension, including

station facilities, park and ride facilities, and track improvements. It would also explore operating

agreements with CSX and would forecast ridership demand for possible SunRail extensions.

Implementation of a feeder bus system to the Poinciana SunRail station, as described earlier,

would provide an early benchmark of the ridership potential.

2. PLAN FOR AN EXPRESS BUS FEEDER SYSTEM TO THE SUNRAIL POINCIANA

STATION

An action that could be taken in the near future would be to implement an express bus feeder

system to connect selected locations in Polk County to the planned Poinciana SunRail station. The

feeder buses would operate in an express mode between park and ride lots in Lakeland,

Auburndale, Haines City, and possibly other locations, connecting to SunRail in Poinciana. To

maximize customer convenience, the feeder bus schedule would be tied directly to the SunRail

timetable so that time lost transferring to and from SunRail would be minimized. The County would

need to create new park and ride facilities or make use of existing parking supply. Conceivably

these could be created by negotiating joint use at major retail or big box store locations. The

feeder bus connection could be included in the program of projects to support the upcoming

transit referendum.

The County also should initiate discussions with SunRail and with Osceola County to deal with

institutional issues that may arise from operating feeder bus service to Poinciana station.

Arrangements may need to be made to accommodate a feeder bus drop-off location at the

station. After the first seven years of operation, when responsibilities turn over to the local

governments, Polk County might be expected to participate in cost sharing. Timing for this effort is

perfect. Polk County’s planning for implementation of a feeder bus operation could be ready for

the projected opening of the Poinciana station in 2016. This operation would provide a means to

demonstrate rider demand for a SunRail extension into Polk County.


March 26, 2014 38

3. JOIN TBARTA

As noted in the introduction, Polk County has a unique position on the I-4 Corridor, with major

urbanized areas to the east and to the west. For Polk County to take maximum advantage of

regional collaboration to the west, it would be advantageous for Polk County to be included in

the planning activities of TBARTA. Changes to the legislation that created TBARTA to add Polk

County as a member are currently being pursued with members of the Polk County legislative

delegation. As noted in an earlier section, Polk County will want to be fully engaged to assure

equitable representation as the TBARTA statute is amended to add Polk County.

4. PLAN FOR PREMIUM TRANSIT IN THE I-4 CORRIDOR

The median of I-4 is a valuable resource for future implementation of intercity transit alternatives.

Florida DOT is currently developing plans for the application of managed lanes in portions of the

I-4 corridor. As that is being developed, opportunities to integrate BRT into managed lanes should

be explored. This might start out as BRT and evolve into a commuter rail system and even to an

ultimate intercity high speed rail system. Use of the I-4 corridor is attractive for its right-of-way

availability and for its functionality for transportation purposes.

5. CONTINUED APPLICATION OF COMPREHENSIVE PLAN REGULATIONS THAT

PROMOTE TRANSIT SUPPORTIVE DEVELOPMENT

As noted earlier, the Polk County Comprehensive Plan includes policies that recognize the

importance of integrating land use and transportation development and promoting attractive

density that can support future development of public transportation choices. The future viability

of public transportation in Polk County will be heavily reliant on the ability to promote these types

of development. The continued promotion of the County’s transit supportive development areas

(TSDA), which provide for density incentives for development in proximity to transit service, can do

much to enhance the future viability of all transit alternatives, including passenger rail.

6. REMAIN ENGAGED IN CSX FREIGHT RELOCATION STUDIES

Polk County should maintain participation in on-going studies of freight line relocations. If

additional freight movements are relocated, particularly through Lakeland, they may open

additional opportunities for further passenger rail. In the process of assessing freight rail

relocations, passenger rail service should be an important consideration in the evaluation.

7. REMAIN OPEN TO THE POSSIBILITY OF HIGH SPEED RAIL AT SOME FUTURE

DATE

As noted earlier, a high speed rail line operating in the I-4 corridor and serving destinations in

Tampa, Lakeland, and Orlando has been withdrawn from consideration by the State of Florida

based on concerns of economic viability. Given the political nature of issues related to high speed

rail in Florida, reinvigorating high speed rail planning is a possibility in the future. If that happens,

Polk County will need to be prepared to identify a station location, complete with parking, transit,

and development oriented to intercity rail.

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Documents

Passenger Rail Options for Polk County