Lakeland
Auburndale
Haines City
Five Mile Radius (ten diameter)
TAZ (centroids) by Drive Time0-5
5-10
10-15
15-20
Passenger Rail Options For Polk Countyfo r t he Po l k Coun t y Tran spo r ta t i o n P lann i ng Organ i za t i o n
March 26, 2014Submitted by:
A t e c h n i ca l r epo r t fo r
TECHNICAL REPORT
PASSENGER RAIL OPTIONS FOR POLK COUNTY
Prepared for:
Prepared by:
MARCH 26, 2014
PASSENGER RAIL OPTIONS FOR POLK COUNTY
March 26, 2014 i
TABLE OF CONTENTS
INTRODUCTION AND BACKGROUND CONSIDERATIONS ....................................................... 1 PURPOSE ......................................................................................................................................................................................... 1
OVERVIEW ...................................................................................................................................................................................... 1
MATERIALS INVESTIGATED .......................................................................................................................................................... 2
APPROACH ..................................................................................................................................................................................... 2
THE VIABILITY FOR RAIL TRANSIT IN POLK COUNTY .............................................................. 3 TYPES OF RAIL TRANSIT ............................................................................................................................................................... 3
POLK COUNTY TRAVEL CHARACTERISTICS .............................................................................................................................. 4
CONFLICTS WITH FREIGHT OPERATIONS ................................................................................................................................ 5
FLORIDA DOT’S FUTURE CORRIDORS PROGRAM .................................................................................................................. 6
LINKAGES BETWEEN TRANSPORTATION AND LAND USE .................................................................................................... 6
PASSENGER RAIL STATION AREA DEMAND ANALYSIS ......................................................................................................... 7
ALTERNATIVE ALIGNMENTS AND OPERATIONAL CONCEPTS .............................................. 23 1. EXTENSION OF SUNRAIL INTO POLK COUNTY ............................................................................................................... 23
2. CONNECTING TO TBARTA/TAMPA BAY ........................................................................................................................... 25
3. REGIONAL TAMPA TO POLK COUNTY TO ORLANDO REGIONAL RAIL USING CSX RAIL LINES .......................... 28
4. I-4 CORRIDOR REGIONAL RAIL TO ORLANDO CBD ....................................................................................................... 29
5. I-4 CORRIDOR REGIONAL RAIL TO ORLANDO INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT ................................................................ 30
6. POSSIBLE EXTENSION OF ALL ABOARD FLORIDA ........................................................................................................... 31
7. HIGH SPEED RAIL .................................................................................................................................................................... 32
8. AMTRAK .................................................................................................................................................................................... 34
9. EXPRESS BUS CONNECTION TO SUNRAIL ........................................................................................................................ 34
10. I-4 BUS RAPID TRANSIT ALTERNATIVE .............................................................................................................................. 34
11. INTRA-POLK CONNECTION OPPORTUNITIES ................................................................................................................ 35
ACTIONS TO PRESERVE FUTURE OPTIONS FOR PASSENGER RAIL SERVICE ......................... 37 1. FURTHER STUDY OF EXTENSION OF SUNRAIL INTO POLK COUNTY .......................................................................... 37
2. PLAN FOR AN EXPRESS BUS FEEDER SYSTEM TO THE SUNRAIL POINCIANA STATION ........................................... 37
3. JOIN TBARTA ........................................................................................................................................................................... 38
4. PLAN FOR PREMIUM TRANSIT IN THE I-4 CORRIDOR ..................................................................................................... 38
5. CONTINUED APPLICATION OF REGULATIONS THAT PROMOTE TRANSIT SUPPORTIVE DEVELOPMENT ............. 38
6. REMAIN ENGAGED IN CSX FREIGHT RELOCATION STUDIES ........................................................................................ 38
7. REMAIN OPEN TO THE POSSIBILITY OF HIGH SPEED RAIL AT SOME FUTURE DATE ................................................. 38
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LIST OF FIGURES
FIGURE 1 – TEN MINUTE DRIVE-SHEDS FOR POLK COUNTY PASSENGER RAIL STATIONS .......................................................................... 8 FIGURE 2 - 2010 ACTIVITY UNIT (JOBS+POPULATION) PER ACRE BY TAZ........................................................................................... 10 FIGURE 3 - 2035 ACTIVITY UNIT (JOBS+POPULATION) DENSITY BY TAZ ............................................................................................. 11 FIGURE 4 - STATION DRIVESHED ACTIVITY UNIT DENSITY....................................................................................................................... 13 FIGURE 5 - SUMMARY OF THE PERCENTAGE OF THE WORKERS WHO RESIDE IN POLK STATION AREAS BY PLACE OF DESTINATION ....... 16 FIGURE 6 - PLACE OF WORK EMPLOYMENT DENSITY OF POLK COUNTY RESIDENTS OF ALL STATION AREAS ........................................ 17 FIGURE 7 - PLACE OF WORK EMPLOYMENT DENSITY OF POLK COUNTY RESIDENTS OF THE LAKELAND MARKET AREA ........................... 18 FIGURE 8 - PLACE OF WORK EMPLOYMENT DENSITY OF POLK COUNTY RESIDENTS OF THE AUBURNDALE MARKET AREA ...................... 19 FIGURE 9 - PLACE OF WORK EMPLOYMENT DENSITY OF POLK COUNTY RESIDENTS OF THE HAINES CITY MARKET AREA ....................... 20 FIGURE 10 - EXTENSION OF SUNRAIL INTO POLK COUNTY ................................................................................................................... 23 FIGURE 11 - A SUNRAIL ENGINE (SOURCE: HTTP://CORPORATE.SUNRAIL.COM/WELCOME/PAGE/BROCHURES) .................................. 24 FIGURE 12 - TBARTA TAMPA TO POLK COUNTY RAIL .......................................................................................................................... 27 FIGURE 13 - REGIONAL TAMPA TO POLK COUNTY TO ORLANDO REGIONAL RAIL USING CSX RAIL LINES ........................................... 28 FIGURE 14 - I-4 REGIONAL RAIL TO DOWNTOWN ORLANDO ............................................................................................................. 29 FIGURE 15 - I-4 REGIONAL RAIL TO ORLANDO INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT ............................................................................................. 30 FIGURE 16 – ALL ABOARD FLORIDA ROUTE MAP .................................................................................................................................. 31 FIGURE 17 - FLORIDA HIGH SPEED RAIL AUTHORITY VISION MAP ....................................................................................................... 33
LIST OF TABLES
TABLE 1- SUMMARY OF SOCIO-ECONOMIC TAZ DATA FOR STATION MARKET AREA DRIVE-SHEDS ....................................................... 13 TABLE 2 - ORIGIN DESTINATION SUMMARY OF PLACE OF WORK OF POLK COUNTY RESIDENTS PER STATION AREA............................. 15
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Lakeland
Auburndale
Haines City
Five Mile Radius (ten diameter)
TAZ (centroids) by Drive Time0-5
5-10
10-15
15-20
Introduction and Background Considerations
PASSENGER RAIL OPTIONS FOR POLK COUNTY
March 26, 2014 1
INTRODUCTION AND BACKGROUND CONSIDERATIONS
PURPOSE
The primary purposes of this technical memorandum are three-fold: (1) to contribute an
assessment of alternatives to on-going discussions and interest in possibilities to introduce
passenger rail to Polk County; (2) to recommend immediate and short-term actions to preserve
future options for passenger rail service; and (3) to provide guidance related to passenger rail
opportunities as part of the upcoming 2040 update to the 2035 Mobility Vision Plan. A wide
range of previous study efforts have been reviewed and opportunities and constraints related to
the implementation of passenger rail service have been summarized. The findings of this document
are the result of an independent assessment conducted by Renaissance Planning Group of these
past efforts, existing and future conditions in Polk County and the decision-making, logistics,
timing, scope and financial elements of pursuing the implementation of passenger rail.
OVERVIEW
Polk County occupies a unique position along the I-4 corridor, with the major urbanized areas of
Orlando to the east and the Tampa Bay region to the west. In addition, Polk County has its own
medium-sized urban areas of Lakeland and Winter Haven and fifteen other municipalities, the
largest of which are Bartow, Haines City, and Auburndale. These all contribute to a countywide
population exceeding 620,000. While the majority of Polk County workers stay in the County for
their employment, there are significant movements of people to and from the east (Orange and
Osceola) and with Hillsborough to the west. Because of its prime location on the I-4 corridor, there
are also many long distance trips that cross Polk County
As Polk County has considered various transportation solutions, and as its neighbors to the east
and west have explored solutions of their own, various regional transit alternatives involving
passenger rail and bus service have become part of the discussion. This range of alternatives
includes technologies, service characteristics and stop locations that serve very different potential
markets.
Perhaps foremost and most immediate have been alternatives that link Polk County to central
Florida’s SunRail System being constructed to serve Volusia, Seminole, Orange and Osceola
Counties and the City of Orlando. Connecting to SunRail would provide travel alternatives for the
tens of thousands of people who move between Polk County and its neighbors to the north and
east. Commuter rail, of which SunRail is an example, can serve a regional and local market,
targeting work trip destinations and typically featuring stations two to three miles or more apart
from each other. The 2035 Polk Mobility Vision Plan envisions extending SunRail into Polk County.
Other systems that have been suggested include regional rail solutions linking Orlando, Polk
County, and the Tampa Bay region, with relatively few station locations. The 2035 Polk Mobility
Vision Plan includes a rail connection to Hillsborough County, as also included in the TBARTA
Master Plan. Some consideration also has been given to premium bus alternatives that might be
an initial building block toward ultimate implementation of passenger rail. Bus rapid transit
attempts to replicate many of the features of rail with rubber tired vehicles operating on
conventional asphalt or concrete lanes.
PASSENGER RAIL OPTIONS FOR POLK COUNTY
March 26, 2014 2
Still other alternatives that have been suggested include high speed rail and All Aboard Florida.
The Florida legislature created the Florida High Speed Rail Authority to plan and develop a
Florida high speed rail system. All Aboard Florida is a private sector initiative to provide intercity
passenger rail from Miami to Orlando, with intermediate stations in Fort Lauderdale and West
Palm Beach. More information on both of these efforts is provided in the Alternative Alignments
and Operational Concepts section of this memo below. These are designed primarily to serve
intercity markets and might offer transportation options for Polk County residents to travel to
Tampa, Orlando, Miami, and other more distant destinations. The 2035 Polk Mobility Vision Plan
includes a rail spur connection from the CSX A Line to the then-proposed high speed rail station in
the I-4 Corridor. Of course, Polk County currently has modest Amtrak service, which is oriented
primarily to long-distance intercity trips.
MATERIALS INVESTIGATED
A wide variety of sources were used to assemble information related to each of the alternatives.
This technical memorandum synthesizes and organizes information from these many sources to
identify possible actions for the Polk Transportation Planning Organization (TPO) as it moves
forward to plan for future transportation options. Among the sources reviewed were:
FDOT Rail Traffic Evaluation Study - Passenger Rail Options, Rail Relocation Options and
other relevant documents
Polk Rail Study
The transit elements of the current Polk 2035 Mobility Vision Plan
The Polk Transit My Ride Transit Development Plan
SunRail planning documents
Central Florida Commuter Rail Commission Interlocal Funding Agreement
Interlocal Governance Agreement for the Central Florida Commuter Rail Commission
Metroplan 2030 Long-Range Transportation Plan
The current service proposal for All Aboard Florida
Hillsborough County MPO 2035 Long Range Transportation Plan
Hillsborough Area Regional Transit (HART) plans
Tampa Bay Area Regional Transportation Authority (TBARTA) plans
A Framework for Transit Oriented Development in Florida
The US Census American Community Survey
The Longitudinal Employer-Household Dynamics Origin-Destination Employment Statistics
Florida High Speed Rail Authority Investment Grade Ridership Study
Florida DOT Future Corridors Tampa Bay to Central Florida Study Area Concept Report
APPROACH
In the sections that follow, each of the broad alternatives are described and evaluated in terms of
the associated opportunities and constraints. As appropriate to the individual alternative, specific
elements that are considered include: demand expectations; station location possibilities; transit
oriented development opportunities; conflicts with rail freight operations; and institutional
considerations.
Lakeland
Auburndale
Haines City
Five Mile Radius (ten diameter)
TAZ (centroids) by Drive Time0-5
5-10
10-15
15-20
The Viability For Rail Transit in Polk County
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March 26, 2014 3
THE VIABILITY FOR RAIL TRANSIT IN POLK COUNTY
This section breaks down the concept of passenger rail in Polk County into several areas of
consideration for the viability of initiating rail transit service. The section begins by defining
passenger rail transit types and introducing a number of topics that relate to opportunity, viability
and potential conflict. This information is followed by a demand assessment of the existing and
potential future market for passenger rail in Polk County. While not an exhaustive demand-side
analysis, the findings reveal a number of key points relating to the timing of initiating service and
the most fruitful potential areas to serve.
TYPES OF RAIL TRANSIT
There are a number of different types of rail and bus transit. Each type has its own purpose,
appropriate context and operational characteristics. The descriptions below provide some basic
context for the remainder of this report, including the demand analysis and the alternatives
presented in the next section. Commuter rail is the transit technology envisioned for Polk County
for the purposes of this demand analysis. Other transit modes and technologies are presented as
alternatives for providing regional transit service that connects Polk to other counties.
Commuter Rail
Commuter rail primarily serves rush hour trips connecting workers outside of the core of the urban
area with major job centers and central cities. SunRail in Orlando and TriRail in Miami are
examples of this technology. The service is cost effective relative to other types of rail transit as it
typically runs in existing rail rights-of-way. The trains are typically powered by a diesel
locomotive and include one or more passenger rail cars. The capacity of commuter rail service is
very flexible as numerous rail cars can be added. Considering that more than one train can run
per hour, capacity can vary based on need from several thousand passengers per hour to around
20,000 passengers per hour. Maximum speeds for this type of service depend on the rating of
the rail the trains operate on, but typically range between 45 and 65 miles per hour. Average
speeds depend on the number of stops on the route. Lengths of routes for existing services around
the country vary, but typically fall in the 20 to 80 mile range.
High Speed Rail
The primary purpose of high speed rail is intercity travel. The systems run on exclusive right-of-
way and must operate on tracks designed for the speeds the trains are capable of, which is up to
200 miles per hour. Capacity considerations are similar to commuter rail. High speed rail service
can span very long distances and is most successful around the world where it connects cities that
are high density, walkable and served by major urban transit systems.
Conventional Intercity Rail
This type of rail serves intercity travel and has a very small commuter component. Most of this
type of service in the U.S. is operated by Amtrak. The number of trains per day precludes this
service from being used for daily regional trips.
PASSENGER RAIL OPTIONS FOR POLK COUNTY
March 26, 2014 4
Light Rail and Heavy Rail
These technologies are not included in the presentation of alternatives in this report. Both serve
highly urbanized areas and are very expensive to implement. Light rail is powered by an
overhead electric catenary and can operate within street rights-of-way or on separate tracks.
Examples of this technology can be found in Dallas, Portland, Minneapolis, Charlotte among other
places. Heavy rail is powered by a third rail and thus has to operate in exclusive right-of-way
than does not allow for grade crossings. Examples of this technology can be found in New York,
Washington DC, Chicago and Atlanta.
Express Bus
This type of service is oriented toward longer commutes. The service typically has limited stops
and routes that are 10 to 25 miles long. Some express routes are longer, but they usually require
some level of coordination and cost sharing among a number of jurisdictions. Capacity of bus
service is limited to around 40 persons per vehicle. The reason this type of service is important to
the rail transit discussion is that bus service in a corridor typically precedes the development of
rail in a corridor. This is especially true where federal funds are sought for major rail investment
projects. Bus alternatives are presented in this report for this reason and because bus is a viable
alternative to some types of rail service.
POLK COUNTY TRAVEL CHARACTERISTICS
To consider the desirability of any options, it is necessary to first understand the travel origins and
destinations of trips in and out of Polk County. While different rail alternatives may differ in their
ability to attract riders, it is first appropriate to examine the total movement of people through
Polk County. There are a number of sources that can be used to understand the movement of
people in and through Polk County. Two sources, the American Community Survey and the
Longitudinal Employer-Household Origin-Destination Employment Statistics (LODES) contain useful
information about trips between home and work. Although these typically account for only about
a third of all trips, they constitute the majority of peak period travel.
American Community Survey Data
The American Community Survey is an annual survey of approximately 2.5 percent of U.S.
households. For meaningful statistical reliability, a three-year aggregation is necessary for county
level data, and a five-year aggregation for census tract data. The ACS, taken averaged over the
period 2006 to 2010, shows 18,550 Polk County residents working in Orange County; 12,200 in
Hillsborough County; 8,000 in Osceola County; and 1,330 in Lake County. The reverse flow
directions are also interesting, with 1,665 Orange County residents; 10,265 Hillsborough County
residents; 2,060 Osceola County residents; and 1,345 Lake County residents working in Polk
County. So while the work flows between Polk County and Hillsborough and Lake Counties are
relatively balanced, the work flows to Orange and Osceola Counties are quite pronounced with
many more people leaving Polk County for work. The ACS estimates that 191,985 Polk County
residents work within Polk County.
The American Community Survey also reports travel mode to work by county. For 2006 to 2010,
data for Polk County indicated work trip modes as:
PASSENGER RAIL OPTIONS FOR POLK COUNTY
March 26, 2014 5
80.7 percent drove alone
11.7 percent carpool
0.5 percent used public transportation
1.2 percent walked
2. 6 percent used taxi, motorcycle or other means, and
3.1 percent worked at home.
As indicated, work trip transit use in Polk County is very small, at 0.5 percent, or 1,250 persons.
For the most recent year, 2012, the percent is slightly higher, at a little over 0.6 percent. Fixed
route transit ridership in Polk County for all purposes totaled 1,670,000 trips in 2011. With
service provided Mondays through Saturdays, this would translate to approximately 5,600 trips
per day, with over half being for non-work purposes. This ridership is somewhat reflective of the
modest current availability of transit in Polk County. Plans to substantially upgrade the level of
transit service can definitely be expected to increase the amount of transit usage.
Longitudinal Employer-Household Origin-Destination Statistics (LODES) Data
The LODES data is not a survey, but rather is a compilation from federal administrative records. It
links residence location to work location by matching social security numbers of payroll records. It
includes all employment subject to state unemployment insurance laws. So it does not include self
employed and sole proprietors; federal, military, and railroad workers; and other employees
who are exempt from unemployment insurance laws. In general it is reported that the LODES data
includes about 90 percent of U.S. workers, though in certain locations it could be a much smaller
percentage. Another limitation of the LODES data is that employers with multiple job locations
sometimes report all employees at the central office. This can be particularly problematic with
organizations like school board employees or in some cases employers with multiple locations but
one administrative center. With these limitations understood, the LODES data can still be useful for
depicting general proportions of trip movements.
As might be expected, compared to the American Community Survey, the LODES data shows
significantly higher proportions of Polk residents working outside the County, with 27,371 in
Orange County; 19,837 in Hillsborough County; 6,205 in Osceola County; and 2,328 in Lake
County. In the reverse direction, it shows 6,291 Orange County residents; 15,133 Hillsborough
County residents; 4,182 Osceola County residents; and 2,466 Lake County residents working in
Polk County.
CONFLICTS WITH FREIGHT OPERATIONS
The negotiations with CSX that enabled the SunRail project to move forward relocated significant
CSX train movements from the A Line to the S Line. This served a positive purpose of allowing
SunRail to operate over sections that were previously heavily used by CSX freight movements. In
addition to the currently-planned SunRail alignment, it also resulted in reduction in train
movements as far west as Auburndale. In so doing, it created additional train movements between
Auburndale and Lakeland.
To address concerns of increased train movements through downtown Lakeland, FDOT District One
undertook their 2009 Florida DOT Rail Traffic Evaluation Study to explore options for relocating
PASSENGER RAIL OPTIONS FOR POLK COUNTY
March 26, 2014 6
freight movements in central Florida and also to examine future passenger rail alternatives. The
study included eight freight relocation alternatives, seven of which would reduce freight
movements on the A-Line as far west as Lakeland. The report indicated that the capital costs
associated with the relocation alternatives are very high, ranging from $639 million to $1.3
billion. It also reported that for all the alternatives the environmental impacts are high, with
impacts to the Green Swamp, taking of recreational trails, likely involvement of 4(f) lands, and
community impacts. While some of the alternatives reduce train activity through downtown
Lakeland, they generally do it at the expense of increased train activity through other
municipalities, which have voiced their own concerns.
Following this study, the FDOT identified two additional alternatives and evaluated the potential
effects to natural, cultural and community resources of each alternative using Florida’s Efficient
Transportation Decision Making (ETDM) process, in coordination with State and Federal
environmental resource agencies.
In 2012, the Polk Rail Study was initiated to further examine the ten freight rail alternatives
though a detailed planning, engineering and funding analysis. Of the ten alternatives, three
were considered most viable to maintain regional freight movement while minimizing impacts to
the community and the environment. These three long-term alternatives were identified for a
future Project Development and Environment (PD&E) Study. The study also identified short-term
solutions to be advanced for funding prioritization and implementation.
FLORIDA DOT’S FUTURE CORRIDORS PROGRAM
For several years the Florida DOT has been engaged in the Future Corridors Initiative, which is a
statewide effort to plan for new corridors and improvements to existing corridors to be able to
meet the transportation needs 50 years into the future. The I-4 Corridor is a major piece of the
Tampa Bay-Central Florida Super-Regional Corridor, which extends from the Tampa Bay Region,
through Polk County, to Orlando, and on to the Space Coast of Florida.
FDOT’s five point plan for moving forward includes developing an integrated strategy for
transforming I-4 to include consideration of a variety of managed lane alternatives, which could
include toll lanes, truck lanes, bus rapid transit and reversible lanes. It also includes developing
long term strategies to enhance passenger and freight rail service in the corridor. FDOT
specifically cites a passenger rail connection between Tampa and Orlando as something that
should remain part of the long term vision for the corridor. The planning efforts that have
occurred in Polk County are totally supportive of FDOT’s Future Corridors Program.
LINKAGES BETWEEN TRANSPORTATION AND LAND USE
Integrating transportation and land use is a critical consideration to the development of long-
range transportation plans. Low density sprawling suburban subdivisions necessitate a hierarchy
of roads and highways to serve land uses that are not economical to serve by public
transportation. As land uses become denser and feature mixes of land uses, the provision of
public transportation services becomes more feasible.
The Polk County Comprehensive Plan clearly recognizes the importance of transportation and
land use integration as it includes some very creative elements of transit supportive development
PASSENGER RAIL OPTIONS FOR POLK COUNTY
March 26, 2014 7
areas (TSDA). The Plan provides for density incentives for development in proximity to transit
service. The increases in density allowance are tied to location near or in a designated transit
center. To earn a TSDA designation, a development must: provide access to transit facilities;
incorporate design features that promote healthy communities; implement “complete street”
features; integrate pedestrian-oriented features, including sidewalks, trails or walkways; provide
high connectivity; and include a variety of housing choices including high density choices.
PASSENGER RAIL STATION AREA DEMAND ANALYSIS
Approach
A demand analysis was conducted to assess the potential demand for ridership from potential
Polk County passenger rail station areas. The approach first defined a realistic travel-shed,
larger than a pedestrian realm that would be representative of the market area for a given
station. Second, an assessment of the 2010 and 2035 socio-economic makeup of each of these
station area market areas and how they compare with the FDOT TOD Framework was conducted.
The last step of the demand analysis evaluated station area travel characteristics in terms of
origins and destinations of Polk County residents to their place of employment, and specifically to
target rail destination areas in downtown Tampa and Orlando. These demand analysis steps are
described below along with some key observations.
Defining Station Market Areas
Three station areas were identified for Lakeland, Auburndale and Haines City, representing three
population and employment centers, approximately ten miles apart along the rail alignment in
Polk County. Automobile drive-times along the road network were calculated in GIS using
network analyst, and the Traffic Analysis Zones (TAZs) were intersected with these drive-sheds to
associate relative five and ten minute drive times with certain TAZs. Figure 1 – Ten Minute Drive-
sheds for Polk County Passenger Rail Stations is a map of the TAZs for each station area that fell
within either the five and ten minute drive-shed of one of the stations. A ten minute drive roughly
equates to a five mile diameter radius, and represents a reasonable short-drive market demand
area serving each station. Using a drive-shed larger than ten minutes results in more overlap
between stations. The market for a commuter rail station is larger than a typical TOD walk/bike
shed, and represents a short drive time. Drive times longer than ten minutes, though possible,
begin to erode the efficiencies of a combined auto-rail commute trip.
PASSENGER RAIL OPTIONS FOR POLK COUNTY
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Figure 1 – Ten Minute Drive-sheds for Polk County Passenger Rail Stations
PASSENGER RAIL OPTIONS FOR POLK COUNTY
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Socio-Economic Makeup of Station Areas: 2010 and 2035
The activity unit densities of Polk County TAZs were evaluated for 2010 and 2035 model socio-
economic data to determine where there might be densities that meet the density thresholds for
premium transit as outlined in “A Framework for Transit Oriented Development in Florida” (FDOT,
March 2011). Activity units are a combination of jobs and population, sometimes referred to as
the 24-hour population. The target density thresholds for Neighborhood Center commuter rail
per the FDOT TOD Framework are between 9-12 units/acre of either housing or employment for
commuter rail transit type and 12-15 for the heavy rail. Figure 2 and Figure 3 show activity unit
per acre densities for TAZs in Polk County. The bright red colors on these maps indicates at least
a unit density of between 9 and 15, which is appropriate for commuter rail for a Neighborhood
Center place type, which is the place type that correlates most with the population centers
currently in Polk County. The black and brightest reds represents densities that could possibly
support commuter rail transit. These activity unit density maps include, in red, the boundaries of
the ten minute drive-shed of the potential passenger rail station areas in Polk County.
PASSENGER RAIL OPTIONS FOR POLK COUNTY
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Figure 2 - 2010 Activity Unit (Jobs+Population) Per Acre by TAZ
PASSENGER RAIL OPTIONS FOR POLK COUNTY
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Figure 3 - 2035 Activity Unit (Jobs+Population) Density by TAZ
PASSENGER RAIL OPTIONS FOR POLK COUNTY
March 26, 2014 12
The analysis indicates that there are areas in the station market sheds that approach densities to
support commuter rail, as indicated by the black and brightest reds in Figure 2 and Figure 3. This
prevalence of higher density TAZs is especially true in the Lakeland station area, somewhat true in
the Auburndale station area, which includes downtown and other parts of Winter Haven, and less
true in the Haines City station area. The socio-economic summary of each station area is
presented in Table 1. A comparison of the activity unit densities in those station areas to the
FDOT TOD Framework threshold of 9 units/acre is shown in Figure 4. The Figure shows the
densities in the rightmost column of the Table above. There are many individual TAZs in the station
drive-sheds that exceed densities supportive of commuter rail. However, the average gross
activity unit densities are below the 9-12 unit/acre range for commuter rail in a neighborhood
center place type in the FDOT Framework for TOD. Lakeland has the highest average gross
density at 5.8 activity units per acre in 2035. It should be noted that station areas in the FDOT
TOD Framework were based on a half-mile radius area, while the 10 minute drive-shed for the
commuter rail stations is considerably larger, approaching a five mile radius. Therefore, densities
can be expected to be on order of magnitude less. It is therefore important to view the potential
total activity units (sum of population and employment) served under each station’s market area,
which range between 119,997-305,838 per station area drive-shed in year 2035. The total
potential activity units for the entire Polk County station market areas are over half a million in
2035. These numbers represent a high latent ridership demand of people and jobs that may
utilize passenger rail in the future.
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Table 1- Summary of Socio-economic TAZ Data for Station Market Area Drive-sheds
Figure 4 - Station Driveshed Activity Unit Density
0.00
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
5.00
6.00
7.00
8.00
9.00
Lakeland Auburndale Haines City All Stations Threshold for Rail
Act
ivit
y U
nit
Den
sity
/Acr
e
Station Driveshed Activity Unit Density
2010 2035
10 Min Driveshed 52,300 Acres
Population and Employment Totals Gross Density (Jobs or Pop/Acre)
Year Employment Population
Activity
Units Employment Popluation
Activity Unit
Density
2010 89,574 116,119 205,693 1.7127 2.2202 3.9329
2035 122,269 183,569 305,838 2.3378 3.5099 5.8477
10 Min Driveshed 42,561 Acres
Population and Employment Totals Gross Density (Jobs or Pop/Acre)
Year Employment Population
Activity
Units Employment Popluation
Activity Unit
Density
2010 44,167 69,998 114,165 0.8445 1.6446 2.6824
2035 55,152 88,800 143,952 1.0545 2.0864 3.3822
10 Min Driveshed 49,782 Acres
Population and Employment Totals Gross Density (Jobs or Pop/Acre)
Year Employment Population
Activity
Units Employment Popluation
Activity Unit
Density
2010 20,170 52,589 72,759 0.3857 1.0564 1.4616
2035 32,265 87,732 119,997 0.6169 1.7623 2.4105
10 MinDriveshed 142,825 Acres
Population and Employment Totals Gross Density (Jobs or Pop/Acre)
Year Employment Population
Activity
Units Employment Population
Activity Unit
Density
2010 152,197 236,847 389,044 1.0656 1.6583 2.7239
2035 206,993 357,992 564,985 1.4493 2.5065 3.9558 All
Sta
tio
ns
in
Po
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kela
nd
Au
bu
rnd
ale
Hai
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s C
ity
PASSENGER RAIL OPTIONS FOR POLK COUNTY
March 26, 2014 14
Origin-Destination Summary of Polk Resident’s Place of Work
The American Community Survey data presented in the previous travel characteristics section
observed that a majority of Polk County residents have their place of employment within the
county. To better understand where the residents of the specific station market area were
commuting to work, the US Census LODES employment database was queried for place of work
for selection areas for each of the station drive-sheds and one for all Polk station area sheds
combined. Five station area polygons were then drawn to represent potential rail destinations in
downtown Tampa and Orlando to identify the draw of specific destinations for Polk County
commuters, and distinguish them from Orange or Hillsborough County as general destinations. All
these data queries, as well as destination rail polygon are illustrated in the place of work
employment density maps below (Figure 6 through Figure 9), and are summarized in Table 2.
The conclusions that can be drawn from the numbers in Table 2 do not make a compelling present
day argument for a strong commuter linkage between Polk County residents and the five rail
destination areas identified for downtown Tampa and Orlando based on commuter travel alone.
The column to the left identifies workplace destinations of Polk County residents living within the
indicated station areas. The cells that are outlined in the far right column of Table 2 show the
percent of total for all station areas. Only 0.6% of all Polk County station area residents
commute to downtown Tampa rail destinations; and only 0.8% of Polk County station area
residents commute to downtown Orlando rail destinations. Hillsborough and Orange County are
popular places of work for Polk County station area residents at 10.6% and 9.4% of total, but
these are large counties, and these places of work are not within an easy walk of a destination
rail station making them more likely to be auto-dependent trips. The majority of station area
residents (55.7%) have their place of work in Polk County.
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Destination Summary
Origin of Workers by Place of Residence
Origin of Workers by Place of Residence - Percent Total
Destination - Place of Work
Auburn-dale
Haines City
Lake-land
All Stations
Auburn-dale
Haines City
Lake-land
All Stations
Hardee County 58 70 84 211 0.2% 0.5% 0.2% 0.2%
Highlands County 172 159 198 518 0.7% 1.1% 0.4% 0.6%
Lake County 368 186 475 1,014 1.4% 1.3% 1.0% 1.2%
Manatee County 125 146 406 672 0.5% 1.0% 0.9% 0.8%
Okeechobee County 10 21 42 72 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Osceola County 731 799 462 1,953 2.9% 5.6% 1.0% 2.3%
Pasco County 190 106 717 1,002 0.7% 0.7% 1.5% 1.2%
Pinellas County 417 329 1,371 2,102 1.6% 2.3% 2.9% 2.4%
Sumter County 48 25 59 131 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.2%
Hillsborough County 1,872 806 5,584 8,165 7.3% 5.7% 11.7% 9.4%
Orange County 3,295 2,987 3,021 9,136 12.9% 21.1% 6.3% 10.6%
Downtown Tampa 100 41 310 443 0.4% 0.3% 0.6% 0.5%
Ybor City 12 3 36 51 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1%
Total Tampa Dest 112 44 346 494 0.4% 0.3% 0.7% 0.6%
Downtown Orlando 260 124 182 551 1.0% 0.9% 0.4% 0.6%
Florida Hospital 45 21 13 75 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
Sand Lake 18 8 15 40 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Total Orlando Dest 323 153 210 666 1.3% 1.1% 0.4% 0.8%
Polk County 15,953 5,734 27,028 48,228 62.2% 40.4% 56.6% 55.7%
Remaining Counties 1,119 2,202 7,415 11,063 5.9% 17.1% 15.1% 12.8%
Total Workers Living in Polk
25,628 14,182 47,754 86,587 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Table 2 - Origin Destination Summary of Place of Work of Polk County Residents Per Station Area
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, OnTheMap Application and Longitudinal Employer-Household Dynamics (LEHN) Origin-
Destination Employment Statistics (LODES) (Beginning of Quarter Employment, 2nd Quarter of 2002-2011).
Distance/Direction report for Counts and Density of Work Locations for Primary Jobs in Home Selection Area (2011
employment). Geography exports were census block points containing location of work by residence of a given Polk
County 10 minute station area drive-shed.
The following notes further explain some of the sources and assumptions behind the origins and
destinations summary reflected in Table 2.
Hillsborough County and Orange County numbers in the listing of all counties don’t include
jobs in the rail station areas;
Station areas are defined by a drive-shed of 10 minutes to each station area. There is some
minor overlap between adjacent station area drive-sheds;
The "All Stations" drive-shed eliminates overlap in drive-sheds between stations and treats
the study area as one large station area; and
The LODES query results were summarized by Florida County, with five station area
designation polygons created to target destination areas near passenger rail stations.
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March 26, 2014 16
Figure 5 - Summary of the Percentage of the Workers who Reside in Polk Station Areas by Place of Destination
Figure 6 through 8 below are employment density maps generated by the LODES queries for
station area drive-sheds in Polk County. The red heat maps show the employment density of
residents in a Polk County station area drive-shed. There are four maps in all, one for all stations
combined and one for each of the three individual stations. The red labeled numbers on the maps
represent the actual number of workers in an area that reside in the respective Polk County
station area. The employment density maps are a visual representation of the figures summarized
in Table 2, but they give a more nuanced and detailed indication of where people in Polk are
travelling to for work, based on their closest passenger rail station. Again, it is evident from these
maps that many who live in Polk County also work in the county, while there are clearly draws to
employment areas east and west along the I-4 corridor for the more active areas of Orange and
Hillsborough Counties.
Hillsborough County , 9.4% Orange County ,
10.6%
Tampa Rail Destinations,
0.6%
Orlando Rail Destinations,
0.8%
Polk County, 55.7%
Other , 23.0%
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Figure 6 - Place of Work Employment Density of Polk County Residents of All Station Areas
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Figure 7 - Place of Work Employment Density of Polk County Residents of the Lakeland Market Area
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Figure 8 - Place of Work Employment Density of Polk County Residents of the Auburndale Market Area
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Figure 9 - Place of Work Employment Density of Polk County Residents of the Haines City Market Area
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March 26, 2014 21
Key Observations
The case for present day (2011 data) ridership potential from Polk station areas to rail
destination areas in Tampa or Orlando is not strong based on the commuting patterns that
don’t present high correlations. There are not that many people living in Polk County who
currently drive to destinations within the rail station areas in Tampa (downtown Tampa and
Ybor City) and Orlando (downtown Orlando, Florida Hospital, and Sand Lake), as
summarized in Figure 4 above.
The future potential for latent ridership demand for Polk stations makes a more optimistic
case for passenger rail in Polk County if one views the total activity units (jobs and people)
who live or work within the market areas of a Polk County rail destination. By 2035, the
projections estimate over half a million (564,985) jobs and people living and working within
a short ten minute drive of the three Polk station areas. This represents a substantial body of
potential ridership demand to and from rail destinations in the Orlando and Tampa areas, as
well as between Polk County stations understanding that a majority of Polk County residents
also work in the county.
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Lakeland
Auburndale
Haines City
Five Mile Radius (ten diameter)
TAZ (centroids) by Drive Time0-5
5-10
10-15
15-20
Alternative Alignments and Operational Concepts
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March 26, 2014 23
ALTERNATIVE ALIGNMENTS AND OPERATIONAL CONCEPTS
1. EXTENSION OF SUNRAIL INTO POLK COUNTY
The creation of the SunRail commuter rail system in central Florida has gained a great deal of
interest across the State. The completed system will span 61.5 miles from DeLand in Volusia
County to Poinciana in Osceola County. The first segment set to open in 2014 will operate
between DeBary to Sand Lake Road. A second phase, planned to open in 2016 will extend from
DeBary to DeLand in the north and from Sand Lake Road to Poinciana in the south. It will operate
double-decker passenger cars on 30 minute headways during morning and evening peak periods
and on two hour headways during the middle of the day.
SunRail is investing heavily in high quality on-board passenger amenities, including
accommodations for luggage, bicycles, wireless internet, and restrooms. Stations, which are
owned by Florida DOT and operated and maintained by local governments, are designed to be
comfortable and secure, but otherwise modest in construction cost. They will include platform
canopies to provide shade from the sun, ticket vending machines to facilitate fare payment, water
fountains, emergency phones and closed circuit cameras, and system announcement signs and
speakers.
Figure 10 - Extension of SunRail into Polk County
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March 26, 2014 24
SunRail will operate with state of
the art technology, including
smart fare cards that use tap
on/tap off technology. The base
fare will be $2.00, with an
addition $1.00 charge each time
a county boundary is crossed.
The system will provide discounts
for frequent riders, seniors,
children and people with
disabilities. Because the system is
using smart fare cards, it would
be feasible at some time in the
future to implement more
complex fare structures.
The cost of the system includes $432 million to purchase the tracks from CSX and $615 million in
Phase I capital costs, with a federal share of 50 percent and the remainder shared equally
between the State of Florida and local governments. For the first seven years, the state will pay
all operations and maintenance costs, with the local governments taking over 100 percent of the
responsibilities in year eight.
When considering extension of SunRail into Polk County, there are two reasonable possibilities.
One would be an extension to a new station at Haines City. Depending on the station location,
this would amount to an approximate 15 mile extension to the currently-planned 61.5 mile
SunRail system. A practical advantage of this alternative is that there are only five freight trains
per day, both presently and well into the future, on this segment of the CSX A Line. In support of
commuter rail, the City Commission of Haines City recently passed a resolution requesting that
SunRail consider future expansion to the City of Haines City and requesting Florida DOT to
undertake necessary planning and environmental studies.
The other possibility would extend SunRail much further into Polk County and would include a new
station in Auburndale and the existing downtown Lakeland Amtrak Station. Since there are
currently 20 freight train movements per day west of Auburndale and an estimated 27 daily
freight trains in 2030, operating passenger rail over these tracks would be significantly more
difficult.
The FDOT Rail Evaluation Study notes that significant capital investments would be required,
including new track with passing sidings from Lakeland to Auburndale, track improvements to
Poinciana, stations with platforms and parking, and additional rail vehicles. It also notes resistance
from CSX in allowing passenger rail on the rail section west of Auburndale.
Compared to year 2030 SunRail ridership estimates of 2,350 for the Poinciana Station, the 2009
FDOT Study estimated year 2030 boardings of 2,130 for a SunRail extension from Poinciana to
Lakeland, with 673 in Haines City, 500 in Auburndale, and 273 in Lakeland. It also estimated
684 boardings from the SunRail Phases I and II stations traveling west and alighting at a Polk
Figure 11 - A SunRail Engine (Source:
http://corporate.sunrail.com/welcome/page/brochures)
PASSENGER RAIL OPTIONS FOR POLK COUNTY
March 26, 2014 25
County station. Finally, it estimated that 760 of the 2130 daily trips would be internal to Polk
County.
Opportunities and Advantages
Provides travel alternative from Polk County to Osceola, Orlando and other locations.
Creates opportunities for transit oriented development at station areas.
Depending on length of extension, links several cities and towns within Polk County.
Makes use of existing right-of-way.
Constraints and Disadvantages
Requires an agreement with CSX to operate passenger rail on existing freight tracks.
Freight trains serving the CSX Winter Haven Intermodal Logistics Center will use portions of
the A-line tracks from Auburndale to the west creating greater conflicts with potential
passenger rail. It is estimated that west of Auburndale there will be 20 daily freight trains,
growing to 27 by 2030, while east of Auburndale there would be five now and into the
future.
Requires new track with passing sidings for passenger rail from Lakeland to Auburndale.
There are 31 grade crossings of the CSX A-Line in Polk County. While the addition of
passenger rail would increase roadway delays at these locations, passenger trains would be
short in contrast, so individual location delays would be relatively small.
Requires substantially modifying the existing Central Florida Commuter Rail Commission
Interlocal Funding Agreement. This agreement requires the Orange County, Osceola County,
Seminole County Volusia County, and the City of Orlando to assume all obligations of
management, operations, maintenance beginning in year eight. In addition, each of the local
government partners contributed significantly to the initial capital funding, in amounts ranging
from $13.7 million from the City of Orlando to $46.2 million from Seminole County.
Presumably if SunRail was extended into Polk County, similar contributions and obligations
by Polk County would be anticipated.
Requires substantially modifying the existing Interlocal Governance Agreement for Creation
of the Central Florida Commuter Rail Commission, which establishes a governing board, a
technical advisory committee, and a customer advisory committee. The Interlocal Governance
Agreement also defines formulas for sharing of annual operating deficits by local
governments based on the average respective shares of passengers embarking and
disembarking at stations in each jurisdiction on a daily basis and during peak hours.
As a nuance of the agreement for sharing operating deficits, since they are prorated based
on boarding and alighting passengers, member jurisdictions may find themselves subsidizing
riders from adjacent jurisdictions, particularly since free parking is planned at park and ride
stations. This effect could be especially noticeable near county boundaries, since there is a
one dollar surcharge when a boundary is crossed.
2. CONNECTING TO TBARTA/TAMPA BAY
The Tampa Bay Area Regional Transportation Authority (TBARTA) was created by the Florida
Legislature in 2007 to develop and implement a Regional Transportation Master Plan for the
seven-county West Central Florida region consisting of Citrus, Hernando, Hillsborough, Manatee,
Pasco, Pinellas and Sarasota Counties. At the time, Polk County had opted out of joining TBARTA,
PASSENGER RAIL OPTIONS FOR POLK COUNTY
March 26, 2014 26
as the financial obligations at the time were unclear. The Polk County TPO recently moved to seek
to become a member of TBARTA. This will require changes to state statutes that created TBARTA.
Presumably legislation will be introduced in 2014 to add Polk County to TBARTA. The existing
statute that created TBARTA specifies membership on the TBARTA Board, which includes:
The Florida DOT District Secretary of either District One or District Seven, appointed by the
Florida DOT Secretary;
An elected official appointed by each of the member county commissions—Polk County would
want to have this same representation;
A representative of the West Central Florida MPO Chairs Coordinating Committee—of which
Polk County is a member;
The mayor or mayor designee of the largest cities within the service areas of Pinellas
Suncoast Transit Authority and the Hillsborough Area Regional Transit Authority;
A two-year rotating membership shared by Manatee and Sarasota Counties and served by
a mayor or designee of the largest cities in those counties—Polk County would want to have
some form of representation from either the newly integrated Polk Transit System or one or
more of the largest cities, presumably Lakeland and Winter Haven; and
Four business representatives appointed by the Governor.
TBARTA has broad powers authorized under state statute. These powers include eminent domain,
the ability to issue bonds, collect fares and tolls, accept grants, and to own and operate
transportation infrastructure. When TBARTA was created it was appropriated an initial budget
by the legislature. Subsequently, Governor Scott vetoed the continuation of TBARTA’s ability to
rollover unexpended funds. As a result, TBARTA has been reliant on grants from FDOT and other
agencies to undertake studies and to fund its operation. There have not been requirements for
member governments to help to fund TBARTA. The statutes that created TBARTA do not address
the prospect of assessing membership or per capita fees of its members.
The TBARTA Master Plan includes a long-distance commuter oriented rail connection to the east
from Hillsborough County. The current alignment mapped onto the TBARTA Master Plan shows the
rail operating along CSX tracks, separated from I-4, and entering Polk County in the Lakeland
Area. It also shows express bus service operating in managed lanes on I-4. Given the interest in
long term rail opportunities by TBARTA, it is prudent that Polk County become a full participant.
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Figure 12 - TBARTA Tampa to Polk County Rail
The 2009 FDOT Study estimated Year 2030 total ridership of 3,732 based on stations at Tampa
Union Station, Mango/I-75, Plant City, County Line Road, and Lakeland. Of these, 341were
estimated to originate in Lakeland or at County Line Road.
Opportunities and Advantages
Provides connections for travel between Polk County and Hillsborough County.
Strengthens economic linkages between the two counties.
Uses existing rights-of-way.
Creates potential opportunity for transit oriented development at station areas.
Constraints and Disadvantages
Requires legislature to change state statute to add Polk County to membership of TBARTA.
County would need to appoint representatives to the Authority and to its advisory
committees.
Requires negotiation with CSX for use of tracks, or adjacent operation in CSX right-of-way
on separate track.
Necessitates the creation of governance and financial agreements for operation of commuter
rail between Hillsborough and Polk Counties.
May be infeasible due to increased freight traffic on CSX lines.
Currently 18 daily freight train movements west of Lakeland and 20 daily movements to the
east of Lakeland.
The forecast for 2030 are 25 trains west of Lakeland and 27 east of Lakeland.
Large number of at grade crossings.
Need to construct adequate stations, platforms, parking.
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March 26, 2014 28
3. REGIONAL TAMPA TO POLK COUNTY TO ORLANDO REGIONAL RAIL USING
CSX RAIL LINES
The 2009 FDOT Rail Study also considered regional intercity rail service using the CSX A Line and
existing Amtrak rail stations in Tampa, Lakeland, Kissimmee, and downtown Orlando. This
alternative was not envisioned as specifically a commuter oriented service, rather as a
multipurpose service that would operate on a consistent schedule across the time of day, with
headways ranging from 90 to 150 minutes and a travel times from Lakeland to Tampa at 30
minutes and from Lakeland to Orlando at 60 minutes. Ridership for the year 2030 was estimated
at 3,106 daily, including 1,231 daily boardings in Tampa, 734 in Lakeland, 456 in Kissimmee,
and 685 in Orlando.
Figure 13 - Regional Tampa to Polk County to Orlando Regional Rail Using CSX Rail Lines
Opportunities and Advantages
Provides connections linking the four counties.
Strengthens economic linkages between the four counties.
Uses existing rights-of-way and stations.
Creates some opportunity for transit oriented development at station areas.
Provides connectivity similar to high speed rail at a fraction of the cost (albeit a lower quality
of service).
PASSENGER RAIL OPTIONS FOR POLK COUNTY
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Constraints and Disadvantages
Limited stops within Polk County.
Limited in providing peak hour service for commuters.
Requires careful coordination with SunRail operations.
Creates potentially problematic joint use of high volume freight lines west of Auburndale.
4. I-4 CORRIDOR REGIONAL RAIL TO ORLANDO CBD
As defined in the 2009 FDOT Rail Study, this option would operate similar to the previous one,
but would make use of the I-4 median from Tampa to central Polk County, where a new connector
would be built to tie into the CSX A Line near Auburndale. From there it would continue to
Orlando. It would include new stations in downtown Tampa and along I-4 in Lakeland, but could
use existing stations in Kissimmee and downtown Orlando. Estimated Year 2030 ridership would
amount to 3,204, with 725 boardings in Polk County.
Figure 14 - I-4 Regional Rail to Downtown Orlando
Opportunities and Advantages
Avoids use of heavily travelled CSX A Line west of Auburndale.
Takes advantage of I-4 right-of-way.
Constraints and Disadvantages
Limited stops within Polk County.
Limited in providing peak hour service for commuters.
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March 26, 2014 30
Requires careful coordination with SunRail operating schedules.
Comparatively unattractive for future transit oriented development with stations within limited
access right-of-way.
FDOT is moving forward with implementation of plans for managed lanes on large sections
of the I-4 medians. Once managed lanes are implemented it may be difficult to reclaim them
for use by passenger rail.
5. I-4 CORRIDOR REGIONAL RAIL TO ORLANDO INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT
This alternative from the 2009 FDOT Study has similar operating characteristics as the two
preceding alternatives, but makes use of the I-4 median and the Orlando – Orange County
Expressway Authority’s (OOCEA) Greeneway for the majority of its route. It would therefore
require new stations in Lakeland, Orlando Airport, the Orange County Line, and downtown
Tampa. Year 2030 daily ridership was estimated at 3,086, with 754 boardings in Polk County.
Figure 15 - I-4 Regional Rail to Orlando International Airport
Opportunities and Advantages
Uses I-4 and OOCEA Greenway, minimizing (but not eliminating) the need for additional
right-of-way.
Provides good access for Polk County residents to Orlando International Airport.
Constraints and Disadvantages
Limited stops within Polk County.
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March 26, 2014 31
Limited in providing peak hour service for commuters.
Comparatively unattractive for future transit oriented development with stations within limited
access right-of-way.
If this alternative was to allow riders to transfer to SunRail and access Downtown Orlando,
an expensive transfer station would be necessary.
FDOT is moving forward with implementation of plans for managed lanes on large sections
of the I-4 medians. Once managed lanes are implemented, it may be difficult to reclaim
them for use by passenger rail.
6. POSSIBLE EXTENSION OF ALL ABOARD FLORIDA
All Aboard Florida is a private sector project
being developed by Florida East Coast
Industries to provide intercity passenger rail
from Miami to Orlando, with intermediate
stations in Fort Lauderdale and West Palm
Beach. The system will use existing FEC tracks
between Miami and Brevard County and new
tracks from there to Orlando International
Airport. They expect to operate hourly service
from early morning to late evening, with a
three hour travel time between Miami and
Orlando.
All Aboard Florida will be a privately
operated system that expects to operate at a
profit, including both passenger rail service and
associated station area development
opportunities. The organization has been non-committal in the face of expressed desires to extend
their service from Orlando to Tampa as it is a potential second phase of development.
Preliminary maps from All Aboard Florida do indicate potential future expansion to Jacksonville
and Tampa. Should they ultimately extend to Tampa, Polk County should be in a position to
advocate for a station of its own. Of course extension from Orlando to Tampa would need to
find suitable rights-of-way in which to operate. It would seem that the most logical corridor would
be in the I-4 right-of-way, which has already been preserved for future multimodal alternatives
and would permit relatively high operating speeds.
Opportunities and Advantages
Provides high speed travel to Tampa, Orlando, Miami, Fort Lauderdale, and West Palm
Beach.
Provides opportunities for station-area development associated with intercity travel, or
possibly a major attraction in Polk County.
Constraints and Disadvantages
Limited stops within Polk County.
Figure 16 – All Aboard Florida Route Map
Image source: www.allaboardflorida.com
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Limited in providing peak hour service for commuters.
If station was located in I-4 right-of-way, opportunities for transit oriented development
would be somewhat limited, though the limitations might be overcome.
Since All Aboard Florida is a private enterprise, Polk County, working jointly with
Hillsborough County, would need to provide a strong case that there would be sufficient
ridership and development opportunities for Florida East Coast Industries to warrant their
investment.
7. HIGH SPEED RAIL
The possibilities for high speed rail in Central Florida have a long history. High speed rail plans
go back to the mid-1980s, and have experienced repeated stop-starts, including the passage
and subsequent repeal of a state constitutional amendment to construct a high speed rail system.
When the State of Florida refused to accept federal funds for an initial Tampa to Orlando
segment, it placed high speed rail in the I-4 corridor on the back burner for many years to come.
Previously, efforts had been underway to protect the median of the I-4 corridor as a route for
high speed rail. However, depending on the desire of future Florida leadership, it could be
quickly resurrected. If there is ever a high speed rail line between Tampa and Orlando, Polk
County should be able to successfully receive a commitment for one (and only one) station.
Historically, there had been much discussion about the best location for a Polk County station. It is
reasonable to assume that any future high speed rail station would be located in the I-4 corridor.
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Figure 17 - Florida High Speed Rail Authority Vision Map
Source: http://www.floridabullettrain.com/fhsra/2_projectstatus.html
As part of the planning for high speed rail, the legislature had created a Florida High Speed Rail
Authority to plan and develop a Florida high speed rail system. As proposed, the initial system
would have had stations in Tampa, Lakeland, and several in the Orlando area, including Orlando
International Airport. Two independent ridership forecasts were performed corroborating results.
Ridership forecasts for the Year 2025 showed total intercity ridership in range of 44,650
passengers per day. Of these, 14,250 would travel between Lakeland and Tampa and 12,300
between Lakeland and Orlando.
Opportunities and Advantages
Provides greater accessibility to Tampa and Orlando.
As most recently proposed, provides easy access to Orlando International Airport.
If developed as part of a larger system, provides greater accessibility to additional high
speed rail cities.
Provides opportunities for station-area development associated with intercity travel, or
possibly a major attraction in Polk County.
With adequate circulator systems, enhances accessibility to Polk County attractions.
Anticipates much higher ridership, likely due to shorter travel times.
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Constraints and Disadvantages
Limited stops within Polk County.
Limited in providing peak hour service for commuters.
Would need to overcome current political opposition.
Need to develop station area facilities, parking, and bus feeder service.
8. AMTRAK
Amtrak operates intercity passenger transportation to many cities across the United States. Polk
County is currently served by Amtrak stations in Lakeland and in Winter Haven. Lakeland is
served by one train in each direction daily, with westbound service to Tampa at 11:38 a.m. and
eastbound service departing at 5:35 p.m. Winter Haven is served by two trains in each direction
daily. Southbound trains depart Winter Haven at 1:43 pm and 2:24 p.m. Northbound service
departs Winter Haven at 12:10 p.m. and at 3:44 p.m. With this highly limited service, Amtrak
provides a useful intercity service, but is impractical for normal every day trips. During FY 2013,
there were 22,829 boardings and alightings in Lakeland and 22,025 in Winter Haven,
translating to a daily total for Polk County slightly more than 120.
9. EXPRESS BUS CONNECTION TO SUNRAIL
Polk Transit has recently added limited fixed route service between Poinciana and Haines City.
When SunRail Phase II opens to the Poinciana station, express bus service connections could be
implemented from several park and ride locations in Polk County to the SunRail Poinciana station.
As envisioned, the express bus schedules would be time-coordinated with trains arriving and
departing from Poinciana to minimize transfer time. When compared to a commuter rail
extension, there are some opportunities and advantages and some constraints and
disadvantages.
Opportunities and Advantages
Ability to test demand for access to SunRail and as demand is demonstrated could build
confidence in extending SunRail.
Development of park and ride locations in Lakeland, Auburndale and Haines City.
Over time, could develop feeder routes to park and ride stations.
Avoidance of potentially challenging negotiations with CSX.
Limited additional infrastructure needed.
Constraints and Disadvantages
Lower opportunity for transit oriented development.
Lower perceived vehicle amenity than passenger rail.
May require agreement with Osceola County to assist with SunRail operating subsidy and to
allow shuttle bus operation at Poinciana station.
10. I-4 BUS RAPID TRANSIT ALTERNATIVE
The County could pursue the implementation of premium bus transit in the I-4 corridor connecting
to Orlando and Tampa. This alternative would likely require the creation of park and ride
PASSENGER RAIL OPTIONS FOR POLK COUNTY
March 26, 2014 35
facilities in proximity to I-4. To maintain the highest performance, I-4 park and ride locations
should be limited in number so that trip travel time can be minimized.
Opportunities and Advantages
Can be phased in as an express bus system using existing traffic lanes, albeit subject to the
same delays as auto traffic.
As managed lanes are implemented in the I-4 corridor, premium bus rapid transit could be
included.
Provide a demand benchmark for premium transit. If warranted by high utilization, transition
to passenger rail could be considered at some time in the future.
Potential for connections to amusement park and tourism-related employment that is not well
served by SunRail alignment.
Constraints and Disadvantages
Would not be expected to create the same level of transit oriented development
opportunities as a passenger rail system might.
Operation in I-4 corridor further dampens potential for transit oriented development.
11. INTRA-POLK CONNECTION OPPORTUNITIES
Several of these rail alternatives can add opportunities for travel between Lakeland, Auburndale
and Haines City. These could supplement the service provided by the Polk Transit bus system
service The My Ride Consolidated Transit Development Plan recommends significant upgrades to
intra-county service, including premium BRT in selected locations. Polk County would be well
served by the improved bus system as the backbone for intra-county services, which in the long
run could be supplemented by passenger rail.
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March 26, 2014 36
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Lakeland
Auburndale
Haines City
Five Mile Radius (ten diameter)
TAZ (centroids) by Drive Time0-5
5-10
10-15
15-20
Actions to Preserve Future Options For Passenger Rail Service
PASSENGER RAIL OPTIONS FOR POLK COUNTY
March 26, 2014 37
ACTIONS TO PRESERVE FUTURE OPTIONS FOR PASSENGER RAIL SERVICE
There are a number of actions that could be taken to facilitate future implementation of
passenger rail in Polk County. While current travel desires between Polk County and Orlando or
Polk County and the Tampa Bay Region may not be sufficient to justify major investments in new
rail infrastructure in the immediate timeframe, there are actions the County could take to
incrementally develop long term passenger rail as part of the mix of transportation solutions.
1. FURTHER STUDY OF EXTENSION OF SUNRAIL INTO POLK COUNTY
The interest expressed in extending SunRail to Haines City merits further investigation. Existing
and projected freight movements on this section are modest. In addition, demand estimates
included in the 2009 FDOT Study show the highest potential demand from Haines City and
eastern Polk County.
The County might consider undertaking a two-phase study effort first focusing on the extension of
SunRail to Haines City and subsequently extending beyond Haines City to Auburndale and
Lakeland. As noted earlier, west of Auburndale the conflicts with freight rail traffic are much
more severe.
The study would identify physical infrastructure needed to accomplish an extension, including
station facilities, park and ride facilities, and track improvements. It would also explore operating
agreements with CSX and would forecast ridership demand for possible SunRail extensions.
Implementation of a feeder bus system to the Poinciana SunRail station, as described earlier,
would provide an early benchmark of the ridership potential.
2. PLAN FOR AN EXPRESS BUS FEEDER SYSTEM TO THE SUNRAIL POINCIANA
STATION
An action that could be taken in the near future would be to implement an express bus feeder
system to connect selected locations in Polk County to the planned Poinciana SunRail station. The
feeder buses would operate in an express mode between park and ride lots in Lakeland,
Auburndale, Haines City, and possibly other locations, connecting to SunRail in Poinciana. To
maximize customer convenience, the feeder bus schedule would be tied directly to the SunRail
timetable so that time lost transferring to and from SunRail would be minimized. The County would
need to create new park and ride facilities or make use of existing parking supply. Conceivably
these could be created by negotiating joint use at major retail or big box store locations. The
feeder bus connection could be included in the program of projects to support the upcoming
transit referendum.
The County also should initiate discussions with SunRail and with Osceola County to deal with
institutional issues that may arise from operating feeder bus service to Poinciana station.
Arrangements may need to be made to accommodate a feeder bus drop-off location at the
station. After the first seven years of operation, when responsibilities turn over to the local
governments, Polk County might be expected to participate in cost sharing. Timing for this effort is
perfect. Polk County’s planning for implementation of a feeder bus operation could be ready for
the projected opening of the Poinciana station in 2016. This operation would provide a means to
demonstrate rider demand for a SunRail extension into Polk County.
PASSENGER RAIL OPTIONS FOR POLK COUNTY
March 26, 2014 38
3. JOIN TBARTA
As noted in the introduction, Polk County has a unique position on the I-4 Corridor, with major
urbanized areas to the east and to the west. For Polk County to take maximum advantage of
regional collaboration to the west, it would be advantageous for Polk County to be included in
the planning activities of TBARTA. Changes to the legislation that created TBARTA to add Polk
County as a member are currently being pursued with members of the Polk County legislative
delegation. As noted in an earlier section, Polk County will want to be fully engaged to assure
equitable representation as the TBARTA statute is amended to add Polk County.
4. PLAN FOR PREMIUM TRANSIT IN THE I-4 CORRIDOR
The median of I-4 is a valuable resource for future implementation of intercity transit alternatives.
Florida DOT is currently developing plans for the application of managed lanes in portions of the
I-4 corridor. As that is being developed, opportunities to integrate BRT into managed lanes should
be explored. This might start out as BRT and evolve into a commuter rail system and even to an
ultimate intercity high speed rail system. Use of the I-4 corridor is attractive for its right-of-way
availability and for its functionality for transportation purposes.
5. CONTINUED APPLICATION OF COMPREHENSIVE PLAN REGULATIONS THAT
PROMOTE TRANSIT SUPPORTIVE DEVELOPMENT
As noted earlier, the Polk County Comprehensive Plan includes policies that recognize the
importance of integrating land use and transportation development and promoting attractive
density that can support future development of public transportation choices. The future viability
of public transportation in Polk County will be heavily reliant on the ability to promote these types
of development. The continued promotion of the County’s transit supportive development areas
(TSDA), which provide for density incentives for development in proximity to transit service, can do
much to enhance the future viability of all transit alternatives, including passenger rail.
6. REMAIN ENGAGED IN CSX FREIGHT RELOCATION STUDIES
Polk County should maintain participation in on-going studies of freight line relocations. If
additional freight movements are relocated, particularly through Lakeland, they may open
additional opportunities for further passenger rail. In the process of assessing freight rail
relocations, passenger rail service should be an important consideration in the evaluation.
7. REMAIN OPEN TO THE POSSIBILITY OF HIGH SPEED RAIL AT SOME FUTURE
DATE
As noted earlier, a high speed rail line operating in the I-4 corridor and serving destinations in
Tampa, Lakeland, and Orlando has been withdrawn from consideration by the State of Florida
based on concerns of economic viability. Given the political nature of issues related to high speed
rail in Florida, reinvigorating high speed rail planning is a possibility in the future. If that happens,
Polk County will need to be prepared to identify a station location, complete with parking, transit,
and development oriented to intercity rail.
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