7/29/2019 Past Coalition Precedents Following Pakistani Elections

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Past Coalition Precedents Following Pakistani Elections

Pdraig Belton

Pakistan has held nine general elections, including 1985 elections held on a non-party basis, and the 1970

elections which returned a majority of seats to the Awami League (which did not form a government,

precipitating the seccession of present-day Bangladesh). All of these elections have taken place since 1970.

Four have resulted in coalitions, and two in outright majority governments.

2008

Aftertwenty days of negotiations following the general election of 18th February 2008 (postponed from 8th

January due to Mrs Bhutto's assasination), a coalition between the PPP and PML-N was announced in the

Bhurban Accord on 8th March 2008. A coalition has been discussed before elections between Benazir Bhutto

and Nawaz Sharif.

This coalition faltered on 12th May, over the PML-N's dissatisfaction with progress towards reinstating

judges dismissed by Musharraf, agreed in a 9th March 2008 coalition agreement known as the Murree

Declaration.

2002

Taking place during Musharraf's military presidency, the 10th October, 2002 elections gave the PPP a slight

edge in vote share (with 25.8% over the PML-Q's 25.7%), but a substantial plurality though short of a

majority of seats to the PML-Q (126 of 342, compared with the PPP's 81). Afterone month and twelve

days (or 43 days) of coalition wrangling, a coalition including the MQM and the religious-party alliance

MMA installed Zafarullah Khan Jamali as PM on 21st November 2002.

(In 1997, the PML-N held an outright majority of seats, with 137 out of 207, or 66%.)

1993

A general election very closely pitched on the 6th October between Nawaz Sharif's PML-N (73 seats, with

37.4% of the vote) and Benazir Bhutto's PPP (89 seats, with 36.8%), denied either party a majority, with the

PML-N attracting a larger vote share but the PPP more assembly seats. Afterfifteen days of negotiations, a

Bhutto government was formed on the 20th October, with the PPP attracting support both from smaller parties

(including Ghulam Mustafa Jatoi's breakaway National People's Party) and independents.

(In 1990, a PPP boycottthough Benazir Bhutto lent her support to the People's Democratic Allianceled

to Nawaz Sharif's nine-party Islamic Democratic Alliance (Islami Jamhoori Ittehad) holding a

straightforward majority of 106 of 207 seats.)

1988

In general elections held 16th November, Benazir Bhutto's PPP led with 94 of 207 seats. Cobbling together

alliances with smaller parties and independents, Benazir was able to form a government on 4th December,

after19 days of negotiations.

(The 1985 elections were held on a non-party basis.)

(The 1977 elections returned a straightforward PPP majority of 155 out of 216 seats.

(The 1970 elections gave a straightforward majority to the Awami League, of 160 out of 300; by not calling

upon the Awami League to form a government, President and Chief Martial Law Administrator General

Yahya Khan precipitate the seccession of East Pakistan.)

Of the four post-election exercises in coalition formation, the average time needed to negotiate formation of

a new government is 24.25 days. Three of the four exercises have taken between 15 to 20 days.