Path creation, societal embedding and socio-technical transitions:

The emergence and diffusion of automobiles in

the Netherlands (1898-1970)

Johan Schot, Gijs Mom, Frank Geels (TU/e)

Workshop 16-17 April 2007 (Zurich)

(Innovation, institutions and path dependency)

Workshop questions

1. "How are path dependency and path creation interlinked? Are they referring to different phases or to a more continuous dynamic relationship? How can we better understand processes of locking-in and locking-out?"

2. "How does a better understanding of path dependency, diversity and corresponding institutional arrangements influence our analysis of transition processes?"

Path dependence perspective

• David (1985) QWERTY versus Dvorak: historical accidents (jamming of keys) determine later development (lock-in). "History matters."

• Arthur (1988): IRA. Technology may gain head-start because of small random events

• Other examples: Beta versus VHS; Netscape versus windows Explorer; electric, steam and gasoline cars, nuclear power

Nuclear power designs (Cowan)

Remarks/criticisms

1. Two meanings of path:

a) market share over time (economic paths)

b) direction of engineering activities (socio-cognitive view on technological paths/trajectories (Nelson/Winter, Dosi, Bijker)); content of technology (opening black box)

2. Explanatory mechanisms (answer to first question)

a) Path dependence: impersonal mechanisms (IRA) + accident, chance event. Self-reinforcing mechanisms (Mahoney). Suggestion of determinism.

b) Path creation: Agency, perception and enactment (Garud and Karnoe, 2001). Reactive sequences: actors react to each other, do things, make committments etc., which leads to path (emerging irreversibilities). Initial events do not determine path. Path is continuously recreated and adjusted.

3. Time frame: Emergence versus diffusion

a) path dependence: early phase. Path dependence additional explanation to general phenomenon: emergence of dominant design from variety of options.

b) To understand complete transisions, one also needs to analyze diffusion/breakthrough.

Path dependence view is incorrect that later diffusion is (fully) determined by early events.

Yes, "history matters", but also in later phases. Socio-cognitive path creation is better there.

Early and late path creation

Market share

Time

Selection ofdominant design

Breakthrough, wide diffusiom,societal embedding

Diffusion and societal embedding

• Upswing/breakthrough depends on previous processes (= path dependence), e.g. stabilization, ideas about use, social support network

• But diffusion and societal embedding are also enacted; actors make choices that influence trajectory (= path creation)

4. Supply and demand side

* socio-technical paths arise through alignment of supply and demand side

* users not onlyadopters/markets* user environment isdynamic (actors, tensions, perceptions)* diffusion is societal embedding, i.a.adjustinguser environment

Aims of case study

• illustrate path creation perspective (socio-cognitive enactment)

• (emergence +) diffusion

• emphasis on user side; societal embedding; role of users + user organizations (ANWB)

Number of cars in Netherlands (in thousands)

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

1935

1940

1945

1950

1955

1960

1965

1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

Functional applications

• The adventure machine (1898-1910): touring, racing

• The utilitarian automobile (1910-1920): commuting, physician, farmers (van)

• Breakthrough of the multifunctional automobile (1920-1940): system building: space parts, garage, road pavements, traffic lights, traffic regulations, new user routines (educating the driver), driver's licence + schools.

• A family car for the masses (1945-1970). Vision already developed in late 1930s.

Conclusions case study

• Breakthrough in 1950s and 1960s, because of external change (economic growth) + creation of ST-system in 1920s/1930s.

• User environment was reshaped and ready (crystalized) when car expansion began.

• Societal/user enthusiasm + active user organization (ANWB) important

Two general hypotheses

• Diffusion/breakthrough does not take place until preceding articulation processes have stabilized. May take decades (1920s-1930s)

• Societal/user enthusiasm + active user organization very important for socio-technical transitions. Otherwise, only technical substitution (T-revolution).