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Paudel, K. P. 04 Oct 2011 6th NRF Open Assembly
Local effects of cryospheric change on agriculture and pasture in Trans Himalaya
Keshav Prasad Paudel [email protected]
Department of GeographyUniversity of Bergen, Norway
Paudel, K. P. 04 Oct 2011 6th NRF Open Assembly
• Climate change impact - Deglaciation, snow cover & permafrost decline - GLOF, change in hydrological regime & wetland
• Three levels of impact – Global feedback, downstream & local effects
The Himalayan cryosphere
Paudel, K. P. 04 Oct 2011 6th NRF Open Assembly
Trans Himalaya region• Rain shadow of the great Himalaya
•High rate of warming
Paudel, K. P. 04 Oct 2011 6th NRF Open Assembly
Trans Himalayan agroopastoralism
• Agropastoral production
Paudel, K. P. 04 Oct 2011 6th NRF Open Assembly
Cryosphere: main source of water•Snow/ice melt water
• In situ snowmelt and runoff from the local catchment
Paudel, K. P. 04 Oct 2011 6th NRF Open Assembly
Study area
Paudel, K. P. 04 Oct 2011 6th NRF Open Assembly
Study area
Paudel, K. P. 04 Oct 2011 6th NRF Open Assembly
Changes in cryosphereDecline in perennial snow and ice covered area (-2.69±0.87%) during 2000-2010.
Slightly declining annual maximum extent of seasonal snow cover area (-0.53% yr-1)Very high variability of snow cover duration (COV > 50% in agropastoral area)
Significant decline in snow cover duration in agriculture and rangelands (<4000 m.)
The peak snow cover period delayed by 6.7 days yr -1
Paudel, K. P. 04 Oct 2011 6th NRF Open Assembly
Local perceptionsReduction in snowfall over time
- decline in intensity- changes in timing of snow- increased rainfall instead of snow (in Manang
and southern belt) Decline in snow accumulation and duration (drying spring)
- shorten seasonal snow cover- thaw out in advance of spring season
Experienced less water - Less water in creek- Observed retreat of glacier
Paudel, K. P. 04 Oct 2011 6th NRF Open Assembly
Source: Aase, et. al., 2009, Area, DOI: 10.1111/j.1475-4762.2009.00911.x, pages 228-238,
Reconstruction on the basis of terminal glacier
Reconstruction after photo by Toni Hagen
Gangapurna glacier
Paudel, K. P. 04 Oct 2011 6th NRF Open Assembly
Impact on agriculture Land abandonment (40 % in Upper Mustang)
Increased crop failure
Increased conflict over water
Paudel, K. P. 04 Oct 2011 6th NRF Open Assembly
Impact on rangeland Water points dried up
Degraded patches in south facing slope - intensification of periglacial processes
Declining rangeland production
Paudel, K. P. 04 Oct 2011 6th NRF Open Assembly
Changes in phenologyStart of growing season Length of growing season
Paudel, K. P. 04 Oct 2011 6th NRF Open Assembly
Vegetation-snow cover relation Relation between pre-monsoon vegetation and snow cover duration
Mustang Manang
c)
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2.0
2.2
2.4
2.6
b)
Snow cover days
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2.0
2.2
2.4
2.6
a)
0 10 20 30 40
Tim
e in
tegr
ated
ND
VI (
Apr
il-Ju
ne)
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1.0
1.1
d)
0 20 40 60 80 100 120
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
y = 0.003x + 0.8751
R2
= 0.77, p=0.002
y = 0.0056x + 0.5296
R2
= 0.65, p=0.009
y = 0.0073x + 0.429
R2
= 0.42, p=0.063
y = 0.0065x + 2.2599
R2
= 0.22, p=0.205
y = 0.0055x + 1.82
R2
= 0.42, p=0.003
y = -0.0001x2
+ 0.0112x + 1.658
R2
= 0.6, p=0.046
y = -4×10-5
x2
+ 0.003x + 1.1609
R2
= 0.7, p=0.02
y = -7×10-5
x2
+ 0.0052x + 1.343
R2
= 0.84, p=0.004
y = 0.0078x + 1.3996
R2
= 0.4, p=0.004
y = 0.0075x + 1.86
R2
= 0.6, p<0.0001
y = -0.0134x + 4.1302
R2
= 0.26, p=0.03
y = -0.0197x + 3.9098
R2
= 0.6, p<0.0001
y = -0.0065x + 2.32
R2
= 0.43, p=0.055
y = -0.0049x + 1.6942
R2
= 0.45, p=0.049
Below 3000 m 3000 - 4000 m 4000 - 4500 m Above 4500 m
Snow covered days
Tim
e i
nte
gra
ted
(A
pr-
Ju
n)
ND
VI
c)
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2.0
2.2
2.4
2.6
b)
Snow cover days
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2.0
2.2
2.4
2.6
a)
0 10 20 30 40
Tim
e in
tegr
ated
ND
VI (
Apr
il-Ju
ne)
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1.0
1.1
d)
0 20 40 60 80 100 120
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
y = 0.003x + 0.8751
R2
= 0.77, p=0.002
y = 0.0056x + 0.5296
R2
= 0.65, p=0.009
y = 0.0073x + 0.429
R2
= 0.42, p=0.063
y = 0.0065x + 2.2599
R2
= 0.22, p=0.205
y = 0.0055x + 1.82
R2
= 0.42, p=0.003
y = -0.0001x2
+ 0.0112x + 1.658
R2
= 0.6, p=0.046
y = -4×10-5
x2
+ 0.003x + 1.1609
R2
= 0.7, p=0.02
y = -7×10-5
x2
+ 0.0052x + 1.343
R2
= 0.84, p=0.004
y = 0.0078x + 1.3996
R2
= 0.4, p=0.004
y = 0.0075x + 1.86
R2
= 0.6, p<0.0001
y = -0.0134x + 4.1302
R2
= 0.26, p=0.03
y = -0.0197x + 3.9098
R2
= 0.6, p<0.0001
y = -0.0065x + 2.32
R2
= 0.43, p=0.055
y = -0.0049x + 1.6942
R2
= 0.45, p=0.049
Below 3000 m 3000 - 4000 m 4000 - 4500 m Above 4500 m
Paudel, K. P. 04 Oct 2011 6th NRF Open Assembly
Concluding remarksSnow cover dynamics – livelihood of local people
Land abandonment, decline production and rangeland degradation
The size of effects of cryospheric change also depend on the social factors (human choice of action, technology development and social resilience)
Paudel, K. P. 04 Oct 2011 6th NRF Open Assembly
Thank you
