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© OECD/IEA 2013
Mapping the new global energy landscape
Paweł OLEJARNIK Senior Energy Analyst
Paris, 27 February 2013
© OECD/IEA 2013
The context
Foundations of global energy system shifting
Resurgence in oil & gas production in some countries
Retreat from nuclear in some others
Signs of increasing policy focus on energy efficiency
All-time high oil prices acting as brake on global economy
Divergence in natural gas prices affecting Europe (with prices 5-times US levels) and Asia (8-times)
Symptoms of an unsustainable energy system persist
Fossil fuel subsidies up almost 30% to $523 billion in 2011, led by MENA
CO2 emissions at record high, while renewables industry under strain
Despite new international efforts, 1.3 billion people still lack electricity
Water increasingly crucial for assessing the viability of energy projects
© OECD/IEA 2013
The rise & rise of light tight oil?
0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
United States light tight oil
2012 Iraq total oil
mb/d
2007-2012
2012-2017
US light tight oil resources may end up being larger than currently expected; Canada, China, Argentina, Mexico & even Russia may join the future LTO club
© OECD/IEA 2013
Different trends in oil & gas import dependency
While dependence on imported oil & gas rises in many countries,
Net oil & gas import dependency in selected countries
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Oil imports
Gas Imports
United States
China India
European Union
Japan
2010
2035
20% Gas Exports
the United States swims against the tide
© OECD/IEA 2013
Iraq oil poised for a major expansion
Iraq oil production
Iraq accounts for 45% of the growth in global production to 2035; by the 2030s it becomes the second-largest global oil exporter, overtaking Russia
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
2012 2020 2035
mb/d North
Centre
South
Iraq oil exports
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
2012 2020 2035
mb/d Other
Asia
© OECD/IEA 2013
3 000 4 000 5 000 6 000
TWh
2 000
A power shift to emerging economies
Need for electricity in emerging economies drives a 70% increase in global demand, with renewables accounting for half of new global capacity
Change in power generation, 2010-2035
-1 000 0 1 000
Japan
European Union
United States
China
TWh
Coal Gas Nuclear Renewables
India
© OECD/IEA 2013
Coal 63%
Oil 22%
Gas 15%
Potential emissions from fossil fuels reserves
2 860 Gt CO2
Staying within a 2°C world
CO2 equivalent of today’s fossil fuel reserves
In a 2°C world, more than two-thirds of current fossil fuel reserves cannot be consumed before 2050 unless CCS is widely deployed
2°C carbon budget
© OECD/IEA 2013
Foundations of energy system shifting
Policy makers face critical choices in reconciling energy, environmental & economic objectives
Changing outlook for energy production & use may redefine global economic & geopolitical balances
Iraq & Brazil together account for 75% of the growth in global oil production to 2035
Schemes to support low carbon technologies need to be carefully designed, while fossil fuel subsidies need to be removed
The gains promised by energy efficiency are within reach & are essential to underpin a more secure & sustainable energy system