PC - Metals Monthly - April 2019backoffice.phillipcapital.in/Backoffice/Researchfiles/PC_-_Metals... · jumped 2.2% mom to 2.59mn tonne. Net steel exports at 5.4mn tonnes were up

INSTITUTIONAL EQUITY RESEARCH

Page | 1 | PHILLIPCAPITAL INDIA RESEARCH Please see penultimate page for additional important disclosures. PhillipCapital (India) Private Limited. (“PHILLIPCAP”) is a foreign broker‐dealer unregistered in the USA. PHILLIPCAP researchis prepared by research analysts who are not registered in the USA. PHILLIPCAP research is distributed in the USA pursuant to Rule 15a‐6 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 solely byRosenblatt Securities Inc, an SEC registered and FINRA‐member broker‐dealer.

Metals Monthly wrap INDIA

2 May 2019

Key highlights • Global crude steel production continues to improve. March 2019 steel production

jumped 4.9% yoy to 155mn tonnes largely aided by higher production in China and US. Average daily production saw an improvement of 1.5% mom to 5.0mn tonnes. Chinese production accounted for 51.8% of global production, up 240/30bps yoy/mom.

• Steel prices mixed: Almost all major geographies except China reported mom fall in steel prices. European and US HRC prices fell by 3% and 5% respectively. China domestic HRC reported an increase of 2.9% on strong demand and cost push.

• Iron ore prices continue to remain elevated; coking coal softened: Iron‐ore fines (63.5 Fe China export) prices improved 11.6% mom following the supply side issue after accident in Vale mine in Brazil. Coking coal prices (Premium HCC FOB Australia) fell 1.7% mom at US$ 204/t,

Chinese steel production grew further, and so the exports • Chinese crude steel production grew 13% yoy to 80 mn tonnes on relaxed environment norms and improving domestic profitability off late. China’s average daily production also jumped 2.2% mom to 2.59mn tonne. Net steel exports at 5.4mn tonnes were up 23% yoy. The average daily exports grew 34% mom.

• Chinese steel inventories fell to c.14mn tonnes from c.17mn tonnes a month ago. • Chinese HRC prices increased 2.9% mom on strong domestic demand. • Overall steel‐mills profitability (CNY 588/t) improved mom on higher steel prices. • Iron ore imports at 86.4mn tonnes improved 1% yoy and 4% qoq as inventories witnessed some fall of late to 128 mn tonnes. Current inventory is at ~51 days of production at a March average daily production run rate.

Indian demand remained robust, but steel prices are under pressure • Indian crude steel production for March 2019 de‐grew 3.1% yoy to 9.2mn while consumption improved 8.8% yoy to 9.5mn tonnes.

• FY19 crude steel production and steel consumption grew 3.1% and 7.5% yoy, respectively. • Net imports stood at 110KT for March 2019. FY19 net steel imports were c.1.5mn tonnes. • Current domestic HRC at Rs 41,500/tonne fell 1% mom. Non‐ferrous: Prices falling • Global aluminium production remained flat yoy while Chinese production grew 1% yoy to 3.1mn tonnes. Aluminium inventories on major exchanges were down c.8% mom to ~1.7mn tonnes in April end.

• China aluminium exports (March) at 470KT grew 18% yoy. • Chinese captive power smelter profitability improved mom to CNY 3,194/t. Chinese non‐integrated smelters have also started making marginal profit at CNY 494/t from loss on mom basis.

• Aluminium CoP saw falling trend. Alumina, anode and caustic soda prices fell 4%, 4% and 3% mom, respectively.

• All base metal prices saw fall on mom basis. Aluminium, zinc, lead and copper prices have fallen 4.4%, 3.7%, 3.7% and 1.3%, to US$ 1,818/t, US$ 2807/t, US$ 1,961/t and US$ 6,435/t, respectively.

• Zinc inventory has increased a bit (mom) primary led by higher LME inventory. • Chinese imports of zinc also saw a sharp increase of 47% yoy to 51KT.

Indices (rebased)

Absolute Performance Change

1M 3M 6MChina HRC 2.9 7.1 ‐4.1Europe HRC ‐3.2 ‐2.5 ‐13.5US HRC ‐4.8 0.5 0.5Black SEA ‐4.4 3.5 ‐3.3India HRC ‐1.2 3.8 ‐7.8Iron ore 11.6 14.2 45.1Coking coal ‐1.7 1.7 14.1Aluminium ‐4.4 ‐2.0 ‐18.3Zinc ‐3.7 7.8 ‐8.9Copper ‐1.3 6.1 ‐5.4Lead ‐3.7 ‐6.2 ‐17.0Alumina ‐3.6 0.6 ‐32.0Thermal coal ‐6.7 ‐12.6 ‐13.0INR ‐0.9 1.9 4.6

Source: Company, PhillipCapital India Research

Vikash Singh, Research Analyst (+ 9122 6246 4128) [email protected]

90

110

130

150

170

Jan‐17

Apr‐17

Jul‐1

7

Oct‐17

Jan‐18

Apr‐18

Jul‐1

8

Oct‐18

Jan‐19

Apr‐19

BSE Sensex BSE Metal Index

Page | 2 | PHILLIPCAPITAL INDIA RESEARCH

METALS MONTHLY WRAP UP

Global crude steel production 000 tonnes March‐18 February‐19 March‐19 YOY% MOM% FY18 FY19 YOY% European Union (28) Austria 713 632 715 0.3 13.1 8,098 6,916 (14.6) France 1,353 1,248 1,383 2.2 10.8 15,576 15,283 (1.9) Germany 3,717 3,319 3,675 (1.1) 10.7 43,442 42,052 (3.2) Italy 2,286 2,036 2,277 (0.4) 11.8 24,311 24,337 0.1 Netherlands 611 572 612 0.2 7.0 6,865 6,861 (0.1) Poland 907 775 860 (5.2) 10.9 10,501 9,970 (5.1) Spain 1,293 1,135 1,371 6.0 20.8 14,331 14,471 1.0 United Kingdom 711 663 735 3.4 10.9 7,515 7,944 5.7 Other E.U. 3,591 3,002 3,366 (6.3) 12.1 38,618 39,500 2.3 European Union 15,182 13,382 14,994 (1.2) 12.0 169,257 167,334 (1.1) Contribution 10.3% 9.7% 9.7% 9.8% 9.3% CIS (6) Russia 6,217 5,230 5,790 (6.9) 10.7 71,253 70,736 (0.7) Ukraine 1,711 1,689 1,968 15.0 16.5 21,387 21,354 (0.2) Uzbekistan 53 55 60 13.2 9.1 664 701 5.6 C.I.S. 8,588 7,534 8,438 (1.7) 12.0 100,873 100,388 (0.5) Contribution '%' 5.8% 5.5% 5.4% 5.9% 5.6% North America Canada 1,112 1,040 1,150 3.4 10.6 13,598 13,048 (4.0) Mexico 1,850 1,609 1,780 (3.8) 10.6 20,173 19,885 (1.4) United States 7,334 6,956 7,752 5.7 11.4 82,164 88,107 7.2 North America 10,343 9,655 10,742 3.9 11.3 116,554 121,679 4.4 Contribution '%' 7.0% 7.0% 6.9% 6.8% 6.7% South America ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ Brazil 3,059 2,662 2,795 (8.6) 5.0 34,752 34,480 (0.8) Other South American 846 626 723 (14.6) 15.5 9,489 9,285 (2.2) South America 3,905 3,288 3,518 (9.9) 7.0 44,241 43,765 (1.1) Contribution '%' 2.6% 2.4% 2.3% 2.6% 2.4% Africa 1,226 1,263 1,296 5.7 2.6 13,861 14,665 5.8 Contribution '%' 0.8% 0.9% 0.8% 0.8% 0.8% Iran 1,866 2,017 2,234 19.7 10.7 22,469 25,048 11.5 Qatar 239 175 235 (1.7) 34.3 2,558 2,582 0.9 Saudi Arabia 385 448 495 28.6 10.5 4,624 5,461 18.1 Middle East 2,738 2,929 3,176 16.0 8.4 32,818 36,411 10.9 Contribution '%' 1.9% 2.1% 2.0% 1.9% 2.0% Asia China 73,047 70,988 80,326 10.0 13.2 874,167 946,635 8.3 India 9,506 8,738 9,412 (1.0) 7.7 103,298 106,388 3.0 Japan 9,085 7,745 9,084 (0.0) 17.3 104,836 102,893 (1.9) South Korea 6,096 5,463 6,266 2.8 14.7 71,584 72,757 1.6 Asia 101,546 96,469 109,054 7.4 13.0 1,196,253 1,276,016 6.7 Contribution '%' 68.7% 70.0% 70.4% 69.5% 70.7% Oceania 529 439 474 (10.5) 8.0 6,129 6,221 1.5 Total 147,712 137,879 155,009 4.9 12.4 1,721,535 1,805,964 4.9 Note: The 64 countries included in this table accounted for ~99% of total world crude steel production in 2018. Source: World Steel Association

Global crude steel production for March 2019 jumped 4.9% yoy to c.155mn tonnes largely because of higher production in China and US. Average daily production saw an improvement of 1.5% mom to 5.0mn tonnes. Chinese production accounted for 51.8% of global production, a 240bps and 30bps increase yoy and mom, respectively. FY19 global crude steel production grew by 4.9% to 1.8bn tonnes largely on account of higher production in China (8.3% higher yoy), India (3.0% higher yoy), and North America (4.4% higher yoy).



Ferrous: Global Markit Eurozone Manufacturing PMI

March PMI contacted 180 bps mom to 47.5 (lowest in last couple of years).

Europe steel production (mn tonne)

Eurozone steel production for March 2019 fell 1% yoy to ~15mn tonnes

Europe apparent steel consumption (mn tonnes)

EU apparent consumption were weaker on yoy basis.

Europe domestic HRC price ex‐works (USD/tonne)

Europe prices have fallen 3‐4% on mom basis.

Black Sea HRC Spot FoB (USD/tonne)

Black Sea HRC export prices have fallen sharply by 4.4% mom.

Turkey scrap prices – (USD/tonne)

Scrap prices improved 1% mom.

40

45

50

55

60

65

May‐16

Jul‐1

6

Sep‐16

Nov

‐16

Jan‐17

Mar‐17

May‐17

Jul‐1

7

Sep‐17

Nov

‐17

Jan‐18

Mar‐18

May‐18

Jul‐1

8

Sep‐18

Nov

‐18

Jan‐19

Mar‐19 ‐15%

‐10%

‐5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

Mar‐16

Jun‐16

Sep‐16

Dec‐16

Mar‐17

Jun‐17

Sep‐17

Dec‐17

Mar‐18

Jun‐18

Sep‐18

Dec‐18

Mar‐19

Mn tonn

es

Europe Steel Production YoY growth (RHS)

‐15%

‐10%

‐5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

‐

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

Mar‐16

Jun‐16

Sep‐16

Dec‐16

Mar‐17

Jun‐17

Sep‐17

Dec‐17

Mar‐18

Jun‐18

Sep‐18

Dec‐18

Mar‐19

Europe Apparent consumption YoY Growth

300

350

400

450

500

550

600

650

700

750

Aug‐16

Oct‐16

Dec‐16

Feb‐17

Apr‐17

Jun‐17

Aug‐17

Oct‐17

Dec‐17

Feb‐18

Apr‐18

Jun‐18

Aug‐18

Oct‐18

Dec‐18

Feb‐19

Apr‐19

US$/ton

ne

North Europe South Europe

300

350

400

450

500

550

600

650

Feb‐17

Apr‐17

Jun‐17

Aug‐17

Oct‐17

Dec‐17

Feb‐18

Apr‐18

Jun‐18

Aug‐18

Oct‐18

Dec‐18

Feb‐19

Apr‐19

US$/ton

ne

‐

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

Feb‐16

Apr‐16

Jun‐16

Aug‐16

Oct‐16

Dec‐16

Feb‐17

Apr‐17

Jun‐17

Aug‐17

Oct‐17

Dec‐17

Feb‐18

Apr‐18

Jun‐18

Aug‐18

Oct‐18

Dec‐18

Feb‐19

Apr‐19



Markit US Manufacturing PMI

US PMI fell 60/320bps mom/yoy to 52.4, indicating expansion but at slower rate.

US steel capacity utilisation (%)

March 2019, steel capacity utilizations improved 120/480 bps mom/yoy to 83.1%.

US HRC price (USD/tonne)

US domestic HRC prices fell 4.8% mom to US$ 658/t.

US apparent consumption (mn tonne)

US steel February 2019 consumption grew 6% yoy to 9 mn tonne.

North America BoF steel profitability (USD/tonne)

Blast‐furnace‐mill profitability has fallen on mom basis.

North America EAF steel profitability – (USD / tonne)

Profitability of EAF mills have also marginally fallen of late.

40

42

44

46

48

50

52

54

56

58

May‐16

Jul‐1

6

Sep‐16

Nov

‐16

Jan‐17

Mar‐17

May‐17

Jul‐1

7

Sep‐17

Nov

‐17

Jan‐18

Mar‐18

May‐18

Jul‐1

8

Sep‐18

Nov

‐18

Jan‐19

Mar‐19 60

65

70

75

80

85

Mar‐16

Jun‐16

Sep‐16

Dec‐16

Mar‐17

Jun‐17

Sep‐17

Dec‐17

Mar‐18

Jun‐18

Sep‐18

Dec‐18

Mar‐19

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1,000

Jul‐1

6

Oct‐16

Jan‐17

Apr‐17

Jul‐1

7

Oct‐17

Jan‐18

Apr‐18

Jul‐1

8

Oct‐18

Jan‐19

Apr‐19

‐30%

‐25%

‐20%

‐15%

‐10%

‐5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

‐

2

4

6

8

10

12 Mar‐14

Jul‐1

4

Nov

‐14

Mar‐15

Jul‐1

5

Nov

‐15

Mar‐16

Jul‐1

6

Nov

‐16

Mar‐17

Jul‐1

7

Nov

‐17

Mar‐18

Jul‐1

8

Nov

‐18

Mar‐19

Mn tonn

es

Consumption Growth yoy

‐

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

Apr‐16

Jul‐1

6

Oct‐16

Jan‐17

Apr‐17

Jul‐1

7

Oct‐17

Jan‐18

Apr‐18

Jul‐1

8

Oct‐18

Jan‐19

Apr‐19

‐

100

200

300

400

500

600

Apr‐16

Jul‐1

6

Oct‐16

Jan‐17

Apr‐17

Jul‐1

7

Oct‐17

Jan‐18

Apr‐18

Jul‐1

8

Oct‐18

Jan‐19

Apr‐19



Ferrous: China

China crude steel production (mn tonnes)

China saw 10% improvement in yoy crude steel production at 80.3mn tonnes. Avg. daily production at 2.59mn tonnes jumped 1.5% mom

China net steel exports (mn tonnes)

Net steel exports at 5.4mn tonnes improved 23% yoy and 33% (on avg. daily basis) qoq.

China Steel demand – (mn tonne)

China’s apparent steel demand continues to report robust growth

Chine HRC prices – (US$/tonne)

Chinese HRC prices have improved ~3% mom

Tangshan BF utilisation rate – (%)

Blast furnace utilization witnessed sharp improvement of late.

China BoF Steel profitability (CNY/tonne)

Steel profitability has also improved following increase in steel prices.

50

55

60

65

70

75

80

85

Mar‐16

Jun‐16

Sep‐16

Dec‐16

Mar‐17

Jun‐17

Sep‐17

Dec‐17

Mar‐18

Jun‐18

Sep‐18

Dec‐18

Mar‐19

Mn tonn

es

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Mar‐16

Jun‐16

Sep‐16

Dec‐16

Mar‐17

Jun‐17

Sep‐17

Dec‐17

Mar‐18

Jun‐18

Sep‐18

Dec‐18

Mar‐19

Import Export Net of Export/(Import)

‐

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0

80.0

90.0

Mar‐16

Jun‐16

Sep‐16

Dec‐16

Mar‐17

Jun‐17

Sep‐17

Dec‐17

Mar‐18

Jun‐18

Sep‐18

Dec‐18

Mar‐19

200

300

400

500

600

700

Apr‐16

Jul‐1

6

Oct‐16

Jan‐17

Apr‐17

Jul‐1

7

Oct‐17

Jan‐18

Apr‐18

Jul‐1

8

Oct‐18

Jan‐19

Apr‐19

Domestic Export

50

55

60

65

70

75

80

85

90

95

Apr‐16

Jun‐16

Aug‐16

Oct‐16

Dec‐16

Feb‐17

Apr‐17

Jun‐17

Aug‐17

Oct‐17

Dec‐17

Feb‐18

Apr‐18

Jun‐18

Aug‐18

Oct‐18

Dec‐18

Feb‐19

Apr‐19

‐400

‐200

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

Apr‐16

Jun‐16

Aug‐16

Oct‐16

Dec‐16

Feb‐17

Apr‐17

Jun‐17

Aug‐17

Oct‐17

Dec‐17

Feb‐18

Apr‐18

Jun‐18

Aug‐18

Oct‐18

Dec‐18

Feb‐19

Apr‐19

CNY/tonn

e



China iron ore imports (mn tonne)

Iron‐ore imports at 86.41mn tonnes improved by 1% yoy and 4% qoq.

Share of iron‐ore exporters in Chinese ore imports (%)

Share of Australian iron‐ore imports have increased in March.

China iron‐ore weekly inventory (mn tonnes)

Iron ore inventories at 128mn tonnes are marginally lower mom.

Iron‐ore inventory to consumption days

China has 51 days worth of iron‐ore inventory at present.

China import – 63.5% Fe Iron ore, CIF (USD/tonne)

Price at US$ 96/t saw an improvement of 12% mom and 44% yoy.

China import 65% Fe pellet, CFR – (USD/tonne)

Pellet prices at US$ 140 /t were up by 6% yoy and 2% mom.

60

65

70

75

80

85

90

95

100

105

Jun‐16

Sep‐16

Dec‐16

Mar‐17

Jun‐17

Sep‐17

Dec‐17

Mar‐18

Jun‐18

Sep‐18

Dec‐18

Mar‐19

Mn tonn

es

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Mar‐17

Jun‐17

Sep‐17

Dec‐17

Mar‐18

Jun‐18

Sep‐18

Dec‐18

Mar‐19

%

India Australia Brazil Other countries

50

70

90

110

130

150

170

Apr‐16

Jul‐1

6

Oct‐16

Jan‐17

Apr‐17

Jul‐1

7

Oct‐17

Jan‐18

Apr‐18

Jul‐1

8

Oct‐18

Jan‐19

Apr‐19

Mn tonn

e

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

Dec‐17

Jan‐18

Feb‐18

Mar‐18

Apr‐18

May‐18

Jun‐18

Jul‐1

8

Aug‐18

Sep‐18

Oct‐18

Nov

‐18

Dec‐18

Jan‐19

Feb‐19

Mar‐19

35

45

55

65

75

85

95

105

Apr‐16

Jul‐1

6

Oct‐16

Jan‐17

Apr‐17

Jul‐1

7

Oct‐17

Jan‐18

Apr‐18

Jul‐1

8

Oct‐18

Jan‐19

Apr‐19

35

55

75

95

115

135

155

175

Apr‐16

Jul‐1

6

Oct‐16

Jan‐17

Apr‐17

Jul‐1

7

Oct‐17

Jan‐18

Apr‐18

Jul‐1

8

Oct‐18

Jan‐19

Apr‐19



Spread between 63.5% and 58% Fe imported iron ore (USD/tonne)

Gap between high vs. low‐grade iron ore at US$ 20/t remained range bound in the last one month.

China coke production (mn tonne)

China coke production has been flat mom in February.

Australia premium hard coking coal price – (USD / tonne)

Coking coal prices at US$ 204/t were down by 2% mom. However, yoy they were up 14%.

China domestic coke spot price (USD / tonne)

Coke prices at US$ 318/t fell 4% and 5% mom and yoy, respectively.

Steelhome China inventory – (mn tonne)

Inventories have gone down sharply to 14mn tonnes from c.17mn tonnes mom.

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

Jun‐16

Aug‐16

Oct‐16

Dec‐16

Feb‐17

Apr‐17

Jun‐17

Aug‐17

Oct‐17

Dec‐17

Feb‐18

Apr‐18

Jun‐18

Aug‐18

Oct‐18

Dec‐18

Feb‐19

Apr‐19

25

27

29

31

33

35

37

39

Apr‐17

Jun‐17

Aug‐17

Oct‐17

Dec‐17

Feb‐18

Apr‐18

Jun‐18

Aug‐18

Oct‐18

Dec‐18

Feb‐19

Mn tonn

es

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

Mar‐16

Jun‐16

Sep‐16

Dec‐16

Mar‐17

Jun‐17

Sep‐17

Dec‐17

Mar‐18

Jun‐18

Sep‐18

Dec‐18

Mar‐19

‐

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

Apr‐16

Jul‐1

6

Oct‐16

Jan‐17

Apr‐17

Jul‐1

7

Oct‐17

Jan‐18

Apr‐18

Jul‐1

8

Oct‐18

Jan‐19

Apr‐19

0

5

10

15

20

25

Mar‐16

Jun‐16

Sep‐16

Dec‐16

Mar‐17

Jun‐17

Sep‐17

Dec‐17

Mar‐18

Jun‐18

Sep‐18

Dec‐18

Mar‐19

Long Flat



Ferrous: India Crude steel production (mn tonnes)

Indian crude steel production for March de‐grew 3.1% yoy to 9.2mn tonnes.

India steel consumption (mn tonne)

March consumption continues to grow at robust pace of 8.8% yoy to 9.5‐mn tonnes

Net steel import/ (export) – mn tonnes

March net steel imports stood at 110KT. FY19 net steel imports were at 1.5mn tonnes.

Domestic HRC price – Mumbai (Rs/tonne)

Current domestic HRC prices at Rs 41,500/t softened marginally (1%) on mom basis.

Sponge iron price, Raipur – (Rs / tonne)

Sponge iron prices fell marginally mom to Rs 20,700/t.

Pig iron price, Raipur – (Rs / tonne)

Pig iron prices have increased c.3% mom to Rs 28,400/t.

5.0

5.5

6.0

6.5

7.0

7.5

8.0

8.5

9.0

9.5

10.0

Mar‐16

Jun‐16

Sep‐16

Dec‐16

Mar‐17

Jun‐17

Sep‐17

Dec‐17

Mar‐18

Jun‐18

Sep‐18

Dec‐18

Mar‐19

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

Mar‐16

May‐16

Jul‐1

6Sep‐16

Nov

‐16

Jan‐17

Mar‐17

May‐17

Jul‐1

7Sep‐17

Nov

‐17

Jan‐18

Mar‐18

May‐18

Jul‐1

8Sep‐18

Nov

‐18

Jan‐19

Mar‐19

‐1.00

‐0.80

‐0.60

‐0.40

‐0.20

‐

0.20

0.40

0.60

0.80

Mar‐16

Jun‐16

Sep‐16

Dec‐16

Mar‐17

Jun‐17

Sep‐17

Dec‐17

Mar‐18

Jun‐18

Sep‐18

Dec‐18

Mar‐19

Mn tonn

es

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

50,000

Apr‐16

Jul‐1

6

Oct‐16

Jan‐17

Apr‐17

Jul‐1

7

Oct‐17

Jan‐18

Apr‐18

Jul‐1

8

Oct‐18

Jan‐19

Apr‐19

15000

17000

19000

21000

23000

25000

27000

29000

Aug‐17

Oct‐17

Dec‐17

Feb‐18

Apr‐18

Jun‐18

Aug‐18

Oct‐18

Dec‐18

Feb‐19

Apr‐19

15000

17000

19000

21000

23000

25000

27000

29000

31000

33000

35000

Apr‐16

Jul‐1

6

Oct‐16

Jan‐17

Apr‐17

Jul‐1

7

Oct‐17

Jan‐18

Apr‐18

Jul‐1

8

Oct‐18

Jan‐19

Apr‐19



Billet price, Raigarh (Rs / tonne)

Billet prices at Rs 31,200/t remained range bound of late.

Wire Rod and HB wire price, Raipur (Rs / tonne)

Both HB wires and wire‐rod prices have increased 1% mom

NMDC Chattisgarh price (Rs/tonne)

NMDC has maintained the iron ore lump and fine prices flat.

NMDC Karnataka price (Rs/tonne)

In March, Karnataka auction prices have increased by Rs 270/t.

Imported iron ore vs. NMDC parity (Rs/tonne)

NMDC iron ore is trading at c.35% discount to imported iron ore currently.

Domestic HRC premium/(discount) ‐ Rs/tonne

Domestic HRC prices are trading at a discount of c.Rs 2,100/t vs. Imported Chinese steel.

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

Apr‐16

Jul‐1

6

Oct‐16

Jan‐17

Apr‐17

Jul‐1

7

Oct‐17

Jan‐18

Apr‐18

Jul‐1

8

Oct‐18

Jan‐19

Apr‐19

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

50,000

Apr‐16

Jul‐1

6

Oct‐16

Jan‐17

Apr‐17

Jul‐1

7

Oct‐17

Jan‐18

Apr‐18

Jul‐1

8

Oct‐18

Jan‐19

Apr‐19

Series1 Series2

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

Apr‐16

Jul‐1

6

Oct‐16

Jan‐17

Apr‐17

Jul‐1

7

Oct‐17

Jan‐18

Apr‐18

Jul‐1

8

Oct‐18

Jan‐19

Apr‐19

Fines Lump

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000Ap

r‐16

Jun‐16

Aug‐16

Oct‐16

Dec‐16

Feb‐17

Apr‐17

Jun‐17

Aug‐17

Oct‐17

Dec‐17

Feb‐18

Apr‐18

Jun‐18

Aug‐18

Oct‐18

Dec‐18

Feb‐19

Fines 60% Fe Lumps 63% Fe

‐1,500

‐1,000

‐500

‐

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

Apr‐16

Jun‐16

Aug‐16

Oct‐16

Dec‐16

Feb‐17

Apr‐17

Jun‐17

Aug‐17

Oct‐17

Dec‐17

Feb‐18

Apr‐18

Jun‐18

Aug‐18

Oct‐18

Dec‐18

Feb‐19

Apr‐19

Lump Fines

‐5,000 ‐4,000 ‐3,000 ‐2,000 ‐1,000

‐1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000

Sep‐17

Oct‐17

Nov

‐17

Dec‐17

Jan‐18

Feb‐18

Mar‐18

Apr‐18

May‐18

Jun‐18

Jul‐1

8Au

g‐18

Sep‐18

Oct‐18

Nov

‐18

Dec‐18

Jan‐19

Feb‐19

Mar‐19

Apr‐19



Ferro Alloys Chrome ore – Barbil, Orissa (Rs/tonnes)

Chrome prices prices remain flat mom.

Ferro chrome – Jajpur, Orissa (Rs/tonnes)

Ferro chrome prices fell by 1.5% mom to Rs 72,750/t.

Manganese ore – Balaghat, MP (Rs/tonnes)

Manganese ore prices improved 5% mom.

Ferro manganese ‐ Raipur (Rs/tonnes)

Ferro manganese prices fell 4% mom to 72,000/t.

Ferro silicon ‐ Bhutan (Rs/tonnes)

Ferro silicon prices fell 2.5% mom to Rs 73,000/t.

Silico manganese ‐ Raipur (Rs/tonnes)

Silico manganese prices were stable at Rs 66,500/t.

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

Apr‐16

Jun‐16

Aug‐16

Oct‐16

Dec‐16

Feb‐17

Apr‐17

Jun‐17

Aug‐17

Oct‐17

Dec‐17

Feb‐18

Apr‐18

Jun‐18

Aug‐18

Oct‐18

Dec‐18

Feb‐19

Apr‐19

Friable 48‐50% Friable 54%+

15000

35000

55000

75000

95000

115000

Apr‐16

Jul‐1

6

Oct‐16

Jan‐17

Apr‐17

Jul‐1

7

Oct‐17

Jan‐18

Apr‐18

Jul‐1

8

Oct‐18

Jan‐19

Apr‐19

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

18000

20000

Apr‐16

Jun‐16

Aug‐16

Oct‐16

Dec‐16

Feb‐17

Apr‐17

Jun‐17

Aug‐17

Oct‐17

Dec‐17

Feb‐18

Apr‐18

Jun‐18

Aug‐18

Oct‐18

Dec‐18

Feb‐19

Apr‐19

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

90000

100000

Apr‐16

Jun‐16

Aug‐16

Oct‐16

Dec‐16

Feb‐17

Apr‐17

Jun‐17

Aug‐17

Oct‐17

Dec‐17

Feb‐18

Apr‐18

Jun‐18

Aug‐18

Oct‐18

Dec‐18

Feb‐19

Apr‐19

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

Apr‐16

Jul‐1

6

Oct‐16

Jan‐17

Apr‐17

Jul‐1

7

Oct‐17

Jan‐18

Apr‐18

Jul‐1

8

Oct‐18

Jan‐19

Apr‐19

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

Apr‐16

Jul‐1

6

Oct‐16

Jan‐17

Apr‐17

Jul‐1

7

Oct‐17

Jan‐18

Apr‐18

Jul‐1

8

Oct‐18

Jan‐19

Apr‐19



Non‐ferrous: Aluminium Global primary aluminium production (mn tonnes)

Global aluminum production remained flat yoy. Average daily production at 175KT were also flat mom.

Aluminium inventory on major exchanges (‘000 tonnes)

Aluminium inventories were down 8% mom to c.1.7 mn tonnes in April end.

China: Primary aluminium production (mn tonnes)

Chinese production grew 1% yoy to 3.1mn tonnes. Average daily production at 99KT remained flat mom.

China aluminium exports (‘000 tonne)

China’s aluminium exports at 470Kt grew 18% yoy.

Aluminium spot prices ‐ (USD / tonne)

LME prices fell 4% while Shanghai price improved 3% mom. The mom gap between LME and China prices stands at US$ 284/t vs US$ 141/t.

Regional premiums (USD / tonne)

US premiums fell 1% mom to US$ 366 while Japan premium improved by 6%. EU remained flat.

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

6.0

Mar‐16

Jun‐16

Sep‐16

Dec‐16

Mar‐17

Jun‐17

Sep‐17

Dec‐17

Mar‐18

Jun‐18

Sep‐18

Dec‐18

Mar‐19

‐

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

May‐16

Jun‐16

Aug‐16

Sep‐16

Nov

‐16

Dec‐16

Feb‐17

Mar‐17

May‐17

Jun‐17

Aug‐17

Sep‐17

Nov

‐17

Dec‐17

Jan‐18

Mar‐18

Apr‐18

Jun‐18

Jul‐1

8Sep‐18

Oct‐18

Dec‐18

Jan‐19

Mar‐19

Apr‐19

LME SHFE Other

1.5

1.7

1.9

2.1

2.3

2.5

2.7

2.9

3.1

3.3

3.5

Mar‐16

Jun‐16

Sep‐16

Dec‐16

Mar‐17

Jun‐17

Sep‐17

Dec‐17

Mar‐18

Jun‐18

Sep‐18

Dec‐18

Mar‐19 ‐

100

200

300

400

500

600

Mar‐16

Jun‐16

Sep‐16

Dec‐16

Mar‐17

Jun‐17

Sep‐17

Dec‐17

Mar‐18

Jun‐18

Sep‐18

Dec‐18

Mar‐19

`000

tonn

es

Net exports 5 year avg.

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

2,000

2,200

2,400

2,600

2,800

Mar‐16

May‐16

Aug‐16

Oct‐16

Dec‐16

Mar‐17

May‐17

Aug‐17

Oct‐17

Jan‐18

Mar‐18

Jun‐18

Aug‐18

Nov

‐18

Jan‐19

Apr‐19

LME Aluminium Spot Shinghai Spot

‐

100

200

300

400

500

Apr‐16

Jul‐1

6

Oct‐16

Jan‐17

Apr‐17

Jul‐1

7

Oct‐17

Jan‐18

Apr‐18

Jul‐1

8

Oct‐18

Jan‐19

Apr‐19

US Midwest EU Rotterdam Japan



China smelter profitability (captive power) ‐ CNY/tonne

Chinese captive power smelter profitability improved mom to CNY 3,194/t.

China smelter profitability (grid power) ‐ CNY/tonne

Chinese non‐integrated smelters profitability also improved and now making marginal profit at CNY 494/t.

Australia alumina FoB ‐ (USD / tonne)

Alumina prices at US$ 384/t fell c.4% mom.

China prebaked anodes (USD / tonne)

Anode prices at US$ 452/t fell c.4% mom.

Caustic soda ‐ (USD / tonne)

Caustic soda prices have improved by c.1% mom.

Indonesia coal 6,322 Kcal ‐ (USD / tonne)

Coal prices have softened a bit on mom basis.

‐

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

Apr‐16

Jul‐1

6

Oct‐16

Jan‐17

Apr‐17

Jul‐1

7

Oct‐17

Jan‐18

Apr‐18

Jul‐1

8

Oct‐18

Jan‐19

Apr‐19

CNY/tonn

e

Profitability ‐ Captive power Average

(3,000)

(2,000)

(1,000)

‐

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

Apr‐15

Jul‐1

5Oct‐15

Jan‐16

Apr‐16

Jul‐1

6Oct‐16

Jan‐17

Apr‐17

Jul‐1

7Oct‐17

Jan‐18

Apr‐18

Jul‐1

8Oct‐18

Jan‐19

Apr‐19

CNY/tonn

e

Profitability ‐ GRID power 8 year average

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

Oct‐16

Dec‐16

Feb‐17

Apr‐17

Jun‐17

Aug‐17

Oct‐17

Dec‐17

Feb‐18

Apr‐18

Jun‐18

Aug‐18

Oct‐18

Dec‐18

Feb‐19

Apr‐19

200

300

400

500

600

700

800Ap

r‐16

Jul‐1

6

Oct‐16

Jan‐17

Apr‐17

Jul‐1

7

Oct‐17

Jan‐18

Apr‐18

Jul‐1

8

Oct‐18

Jan‐19

Apr‐19

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

Apr‐16

Jul‐1

6

Oct‐16

Jan‐17

Apr‐17

Jul‐1

7

Oct‐17

Jan‐18

Apr‐18

Jul‐1

8

Oct‐18

Jan‐19

Apr‐19

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

Apr‐16

Jul‐1

6

Oct‐16

Jan‐17

Apr‐17

Jul‐1

7

Oct‐17

Jan‐18

Apr‐18

Jul‐1

8

Oct‐18

Jan‐19

Apr‐19



Non‐ferrous: Zinc and lead

Zinc LME price – USD/tonne

Zinc prices fell 3.7% mom to US$ 2,807/t.

Major exchange zinc inventory (‘000 tonnes)

Inventories have increased mom primarily led by increase in LME.

China zinc imports (tonnes)

Chinese zinc imports saw a sharp increase of 47% yoy to 51KT.

China zinc concentrate TC 50% CIF – USD/tonne

Treatment charges continues its sharp upmove.

Lead LME prices – USD/tonne

Lead prices at US$ 1,964/t fell 3.4% mom.

Major exchange lead inventory (‘000 tonnes)

Inventories have increased 2.3% on a mom basis.

‐

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

Apr‐16

Jul‐1

6

Oct‐16

Jan‐17

Apr‐17

Jul‐1

7

Oct‐17

Jan‐18

Apr‐18

Jul‐1

8

Oct‐18

Jan‐19

Apr‐19

‐

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

Aug‐18

Sep‐18

Sep‐18

Oct‐18

Nov

‐18

Nov

‐18

Dec‐18

Jan‐19

Feb‐19

Feb‐19

Mar‐19

Apr‐19

Apr‐19

LME SHFE

‐

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

Apr‐16

Jun‐16

Aug‐16

Oct‐16

Dec‐16

Feb‐17

Apr‐17

Jun‐17

Aug‐17

Oct‐17

Dec‐17

Feb‐18

Apr‐18

Jun‐18

Aug‐18

Oct‐18

Dec‐18

Feb‐19

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

Apr‐16

Jul‐1

6

Oct‐16

Jan‐17

Apr‐17

Jul‐1

7

Oct‐17

Jan‐18

Apr‐18

Jul‐1

8

Oct‐18

Jan‐19

Apr‐19

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

2,000

2,200

2,400

2,600

2,800

Apr‐16

Jul‐1

6

Oct‐16

Jan‐17

Apr‐17

Jul‐1

7

Oct‐17

Jan‐18

Apr‐18

Jul‐1

8

Oct‐18

Jan‐19

Apr‐19

‐

50

100

150

200

250

300

Apr‐16

Jul‐1

6

Oct‐16

Jan‐17

Apr‐17

Jul‐1

7

Oct‐17

Jan‐18

Apr‐18

Jul‐1

8

Oct‐18

Jan‐19

Apr‐19

LME SHFE



Rating Methodology We rate stock on absolute return basis. Our target price for the stocks has an investment horizon of one year. Rating Criteria Definition

BUY >= +15% Target price is equal to or more than 15% of current market price

NEUTRAL ‐15% > to < +15% Target price is less than +15% but more than ‐15%

SELL <= ‐15% Target price is less than or equal to ‐15%.

Disclosures and Disclaimers PhillipCapital (India) Pvt. Ltd. has three independent equity research groups: Institutional Equities, Institutional Equity Derivatives, and Private Client Group. This report has been prepared by Institutional Equities Group. The views and opinions expressed in this document may, may not match, or may be contrary at times with the views, estimates, rating, and target price of the other equity research groups of PhillipCapital (India) Pvt. Ltd.

This report is issued by PhillipCapital (India) Pvt. Ltd., which is regulated by the SEBI. PhillipCapital (India) Pvt. Ltd. is a subsidiary of Phillip (Mauritius) Pvt. Ltd. References to "PCIPL" in this report shall mean PhillipCapital (India) Pvt. Ltd unless otherwise stated. This report is prepared and distributed by PCIPL for information purposes only, and neither the information contained herein, nor any opinion expressed should be construed or deemed to be construed as solicitation or as offering advice for the purposes of the purchase or sale of any security, investment, or derivatives. The information and opinions contained in the report were considered by PCIPL to be valid when published. The report also contains information provided to PCIPL by third parties. The source of such information will usually be disclosed in the report. Whilst PCIPL has taken all reasonable steps to ensure that this information is correct, PCIPL does not offer any warranty as to the accuracy or completeness of such information. Any person placing reliance on the report to undertake trading does so entirely at his or her own risk and PCIPL does not accept any liability as a result. Securities and Derivatives markets may be subject to rapid and unexpected price movements and past performance is not necessarily an indication of future performance.

This report does not regard the specific investment objectives, financial situation, and the particular needs of any specific person who may receive this report. Investors must undertake independent analysis with their own legal, tax, and financial advisors and reach their own conclusions regarding the appropriateness of investing in any securities or investment strategies discussed or recommended in this report and should understand that statements regarding future prospects may not be realised. Under no circumstances can it be used or considered as an offer to sell or as a solicitation of any offer to buy or sell the securities mentioned within it. The information contained in the research reports may have been taken from trade and statistical services and other sources, which PCIL believe is reliable. PhillipCapital (India) Pvt. Ltd. or any of its group/associate/affiliate companies do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Any opinions expressed reflect judgments at this date and are subject to change without notice.

Important: These disclosures and disclaimers must be read in conjunction with the research report of which it forms part. Receipt and use of the research report is subject to all aspects of these disclosures and disclaimers. Additional information about the issuers and securities discussed in this research report is available on request.

Certifications: The research analyst(s) who prepared this research report hereby certifies that the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect the research analyst’s personal views about all of the subject issuers and/or securities, that the analyst(s) have no known conflict of interest and no part of the research analyst’s compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific views or recommendations contained in this research report.

Additional Disclosures of Interest: Unless specifically mentioned in Point No. 9 below: 1. The Research Analyst(s), PCIL, or its associates or relatives of the Research Analyst does not have any financial interest in the company(ies) covered in

this report. 2. The Research Analyst, PCIL or its associates or relatives of the Research Analyst affiliates collectively do not hold more than 1% of the securities of the

company (ies)covered in this report as of the end of the month immediately preceding the distribution of the research report. 3. The Research Analyst, his/her associate, his/her relative, and PCIL, do not have any other material conflict of interest at the time of publication of this

research report. 4. The Research Analyst, PCIL, and its associates have not received compensation for investment banking or merchant banking or brokerage services or for

any other products or services from the company(ies) covered in this report, in the past twelve months. 5. The Research Analyst, PCIL or its associates have not managed or co‐managed in the previous twelve months, a private or public offering of securities for

the company (ies) covered in this report. 6. PCIL or its associates have not received compensation or other benefits from the company(ies) covered in this report or from any third party, in

connection with the research report. 7. The Research Analyst has not served as an Officer, Director, or employee of the company (ies) covered in the Research report. 8. The Research Analyst and PCIL has not been engaged in market making activity for the company(ies) covered in the Research report. 9. Details of PCIL, Research Analyst and its associates pertaining to the companies covered in the Research report: Sr. no. Particulars Yes/No

1 Whether compensation has been received from the company(ies) covered in the Research report in the past 12 months for investment banking transaction by PCIL

No

2 Whether Research Analyst, PCIL or its associates or relatives of the Research Analyst affiliates collectively hold more than 1% of the company(ies) covered in the Research report

No

3 Whether compensation has been received by PCIL or its associates from the company(ies) covered in the Research report No4 PCIL or its affiliates have managed or co‐managed in the previous twelve months a private or public offering of securities for the

company(ies) covered in the Research report No

5 Research Analyst, his associate, PCIL or its associates have received compensation for investment banking or merchant banking or brokerage services or for any other products or services from the company(ies) covered in the Research report, in the last twelve months

No



Independence: PhillipCapital (India) Pvt. Ltd. has not had an investment banking relationship with, and has not received any compensation for investment banking services from, the subject issuers in the past twelve (12) months, and PhillipCapital (India) Pvt. Ltd does not anticipate receiving or intend to seek compensation for investment banking services from the subject issuers in the next three (3) months. PhillipCapital (India) Pvt. Ltd is not a market maker in the securities mentioned in this research report, although it, or its affiliates/employees, may have positions in, purchase or sell, or be materially interested in any of the securities covered in the report.

Suitability and Risks: This research report is for informational purposes only and is not tailored to the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular requirements of any individual recipient hereof. Certain securities may give rise to substantial risks and may not be suitable for certain investors. Each investor must make its own determination as to the appropriateness of any securities referred to in this research report based upon the legal, tax and accounting considerations applicable to such investor and its own investment objectives or strategy, its financial situation and its investing experience. The value of any security may be positively or adversely affected by changes in foreign exchange or interest rates, as well as by other financial, economic, or political factors. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future performance or results.

Sources, Completeness and Accuracy: The material herein is based upon information obtained from sources that PCIPL and the research analyst believe to be reliable, but neither PCIPL nor the research analyst represents or guarantees that the information contained herein is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Opinions expressed herein are current opinions as of the date appearing on this material, and are subject to change without notice. Furthermore, PCIPL is under no obligation to update or keep the information current. Without limiting any of the foregoing, in no event shall PCIL, any of its affiliates/employees or any third party involved in, or related to computing or compiling the information have any liability for any damages of any kind including but not limited to any direct or consequential loss or damage, however arising, from the use of this document.

Copyright: The copyright in this research report belongs exclusively to PCIPL. All rights are reserved. Any unauthorised use or disclosure is prohibited. No reprinting or reproduction, in whole or in part, is permitted without the PCIPL’s prior consent, except that a recipient may reprint it for internal circulation only and only if it is reprinted in its entirety.

Caution: Risk of loss in trading/investment can be substantial and even more than the amount / margin given by you. Investment in securities market are subject to market risks, you are requested to read all the related documents carefully before investing. You should carefully consider whether trading/investment is appropriate for you in light of your experience, objectives, financial resources and other relevant circumstances. PhillipCapital and any of its employees, directors, associates, group entities, or affiliates shall not be liable for losses, if any, incurred by you. You are further cautioned that trading/investments in financial markets are subject to market risks and are advised to seek independent third party trading/investment advice outside PhillipCapital/group/associates/affiliates/directors/employees before and during your trading/investment. There is no guarantee/assurance as to returns or profits or capital protection or appreciation. PhillipCapital and any of its employees, directors, associates, and/or employees, directors, associates of PhillipCapital’s group entities or affiliates is not inducing you for trading/investing in the financial market(s). Trading/Investment decision is your sole responsibility. You must also read the Risk Disclosure Document and Do’s and Don’ts before investing.

Kindly note that past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance.

For Detailed Disclaimer: Please visit our website www.phillipcapital.in IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES FOR U.S. PERSONS This research report is a product of PhillipCapital (India) Pvt. Ltd. which is the employer of the research analyst(s) who has prepared the research report. PhillipCapital (India) Pvt Ltd. is authorized to engage in securities activities in India. PHILLIPCAP is not a registered broker‐dealer in the United States and, therefore, is not subject to U.S. rules regarding the preparation of research reports and the independence of research analysts. This research report is provided for distribution to “major U.S. institutional investors” in reliance on the exemption from registration provided by Rule 15a‐6 of the U.S. Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”). If the recipient of this report is not a Major Institutional Investor as specified above, then it should not act upon this report and return the same to the sender. Further, this report may not be copied, duplicated and/or transmitted onward to any U.S. person, which is not a Major Institutional Investor.

Any U.S. recipient of this research report wishing to effect any transaction to buy or sell securities or related financial instruments based on the information provided in this research report should do so only through Rosenblatt Securities Inc, 40 Wall Street 59th Floor, New York NY 10005, a registered broker dealer in the United States. Under no circumstances should any recipient of this research report effect any transaction to buy or sell securities or related financial instruments through PHILLIPCAP. Rosenblatt Securities Inc. accepts responsibility for the contents of this research report, subject to the terms set out below, to the extent that it is delivered to a U.S. person other than a major U.S. institutional investor.

The analyst whose name appears in this research report is not registered or qualified as a research analyst with the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority (“FINRA”) and may not be an associated person of Rosenblatt Securities Inc. and, therefore, may not be subject to applicable restrictions under FINRA Rules on communications with a subject company, public appearances and trading securities held by a research analyst account. Ownership and Material Conflicts of Interest Rosenblatt Securities Inc. or its affiliates does not ‘beneficially own,’ as determined in accordance with Section 13(d) of the Exchange Act, 1% or more of any of the equity securities mentioned in the report. Rosenblatt Securities Inc, its affiliates and/or their respective officers, directors or employees may have interests, or long or short positions, and may at any time make purchases or sales as a principal or agent of the securities referred to herein. Rosenblatt Securities Inc. is not aware of any material conflict of interest as of the date of this publication Compensation and Investment Banking Activities Rosenblatt Securities Inc. or any affiliate has not managed or co‐managed a public offering of securities for the subject company in the past 12 months, nor received compensation for investment banking services from the subject company in the past 12 months, neither does it or any affiliate expect to receive, or intends to seek compensation for investment banking services from the subject company in the next 3 months. Additional Disclosures This research report is for distribution only under such circumstances as may be permitted by applicable law. This research report has no regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any specific recipient, even if sent only to a single recipient. This research report is not guaranteed to be a complete statement or summary of any securities, markets, reports or developments referred to in this research report. Neither PHILLIPCAP nor any of its directors, officers, employees or agents shall have any liability, however arising, for any error, inaccuracy or incompleteness of fact or opinion in this research report or lack of care in this research report’s preparation or publication, or any losses or damages which may arise from the use of this research report.



PHILLIPCAP may rely on information barriers, such as “Chinese Walls” to control the flow of information within the areas, units, divisions, groups, or affiliates of PHILLIPCAP.

Investing in any non‐U.S. securities or related financial instruments (including ADRs) discussed in this research report may present certain risks. The securities of non‐U.S. issuers may not be registered with, or be subject to the regulations of, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. Information on such non‐U.S. securities or related financial instruments may be limited. Foreign companies may not be subject to audit and reporting standards and regulatory requirements comparable to those in effect within the United States.

The value of any investment or income from any securities or related financial instruments discussed in this research report denominated in a currency other than U.S. dollars is subject to exchange rate fluctuations that may have a positive or adverse effect on the value of or income from such securities or related financial instruments.

Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance and no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made by PHILLIPCAP with respect to future performance. Income from investments may fluctuate. The price or value of the investments to which this research report relates, either directly or indirectly, may fall or rise against the interest of investors. Any recommendation or opinion contained in this research report may become outdated as a consequence of changes in the environment in which the issuer of the securities under analysis operates, in addition to changes in the estimates and forecasts, assumptions and valuation methodology used herein.

No part of the content of this research report may be copied, forwarded or duplicated in any form or by any means without the prior written consent of PHILLIPCAP and PHILLIPCAP accepts no liability whatsoever for the actions of third parties in this respect.

PhillipCapital (India) Pvt. Ltd. Registered office: 18th floor, Urmi Estate, Ganpatrao Kadam Marg, Lower Parel (West), Mumbai – 400013, India.

Documents

PC - Metals Monthly - April 2019backoffice.phillipcapital.in/Backoffice/Researchfiles/PC_-_Metals... · jumped 2.2% mom to 2.59mn tonne. Net steel exports at 5.4mn tonnes were up