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PDS Watches: How Dangerous are these “Particularly Dangerous Situations?”. Joseph T. Schaefer NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center and Andrew R. Dean CIMMS/University of Oklahoma NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center. “ Particularly Dangerous Situation ” Watches. Tornado Watches: - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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PDS Watches:How Dangerous are these “Particularly Dangerous
Situations?”Joseph T. SchaeferNOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center
and Andrew R. Dean
CIMMS/University of Oklahoma NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center
“Particularly Dangerous Situation” Watches
Tornado Watches:Multiple strong or violent
(F2 – F5 damage) events
Severe Thunderstorm Watches: Long lived wind events (derechoes)
SEL6
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 776 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 510 PM CDT SAT
SEP 16 2006 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHWEST IOWA CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA
EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY MORNING FROM 510 PM UNTIL 100 AM CDT.
...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION...
DESTRUCTIVE TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER... THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
…
PDS WATCH
Fraction of Tor Reports and Harm by F-Scale 1996-2005
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F1+ F2+ F3+ F4+
F-Scale
Fra
cti
on
TorFracDeaths
InjuriesDamage
Frequency 1996-2005 total PDSSevere Thunderstorm Watches 5827 22 0.4%Tornado Watches 3058 216 7.1%
Strong and Violent Tornadoes: Axis from Central Arkansas to Central Kentucky
PDS Tornado Watches: Axis from Southern Arkansas to Northern Alabama
TYPE PDS? # RepCov TorCov F2+Cov F4+Cov WndCov Gust>64 kts Cov
SEV N 5805 34.3 2.0 0.2 0.01 22.4 2.6
SEV Y 22 60.5 3.2 0 0 54.8 9.1
SEV ALL 5827 34.4 2.0 0.2 0.01 22.6 2.6
TOR N 2842 36.6 8.4 1.6 0.12 21.6 3.0
TOR Y 216 52.0 17.0 5.9 0.56 31.2 5.4
TOR ALL 3058 38.0 9.2 2.0 0.16 22.5 3.2
Coverage of Watches by Reports (%)
The decision to issue a watch is made before the decision to go PDS is made
Portion of Watch impacted by Severe Weather is Greater when a Watch is PDS
PODs by F-Scale and Watch Type (1996-2005)
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F0 F1 F2-F3 F4-F5
F-Scale
PO
D
InWatch
InTor
nonPDSTOR
PDSTOR
The Probability of a Tornado being in a Watch increases with its intensity
Since only 7% of Tornado Watches are PDS Watches, more Strong Tornadoes occur in non-PDS Tornado Watches
Report Occurrence in Watches 1996-2005
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>=1 tor >= 2 tor >= 3 tor >= 1 F2+ >= 2 F2+
# of reports in watch
Fra
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n o
f w
atch
es
all SEV
reg TOR
PDS TOR
The percent of watches containing tornadoes, clustered tornadoes, strong tornadoes and clustered strong tornadoes increases from Severe thunderstorm Watches, to Tornado Watches, to PDS Tornado Watches.
“Particularly Dangerous Situation” tornado watches portray an increased risk to life and property from strong and violent tornadoes
All though tornado watches are classified as SEV, PDS SEV, TOR, and PDS TOR, there is a continuum of risk associated with watches … the tornado risk in a SEV watch is not zero, and the threat for non-tornadic severe events in TOR watches can be high.
INFERENCES
02/02/04
“Where America’s Weather and Climate Services Begin”
Storm Prediction Center