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Peak Oil & Global Sustainability Strategies
David Bell
Sydney Convenor ASPO Australia
Business as Usual is Over• Every week there is a crisis• Energy crisis is under the radar but it is there• Financial crises can be fixed with dollars unlike an
energy crisis• Google energy shortages or fuel shortages in news
around the world• Car & Airline Industry fighting for their survival• US$70 oil is still high & markets are still tight• Economists cannot predict what the ASX will be
at end of the year. In July 08 one predicts 6500
Energy is the New Currency• USD is a currency backed by oil• OPEC producers are tied to USD• US imports 15 million barrels of oil a day• Rising prices make petrodollar recycling
and trade balances worse• Oil producers cannot invest cash in US
banking and financial system except T Bills• Russia’s Georgian conquest was about
asserting control over energy flows• Food prices have also risen-food is energy
Nigeria’s Offshore Platform Bonga attacked in June 2008
120 kms off Nigerian Coast MEND now can go offshore
Daily Prices in USD- Year to Year
Daily Prices in USD
WTI 2004-2008 in USD
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
5/01
/200
4
5/04
/200
4
5/07
/200
4
5/10
/200
4
5/01
/200
5
5/04
/200
5
5/07
/200
5
5/10
/200
5
5/01
/200
6
5/04
/200
6
5/07
/200
6
5/10
/200
6
5/01
/200
7
5/04
/200
7
5/07
/200
7
5/10
/200
7
5/01
/200
8
5/04
/200
8
5/07
/200
8
5/10
/200
8
Average Prices in USD 2004-2008
Source: EIA Data & CIBC World Markets
Are we at Peak Yet?
World Net Exports Top 20 Oil exporters –93% of all exporters
2012- Mexico No Longer Exports to US
Future World Net Exports
CIBC World Markets Forecast
What is this telling us?
• Oil demand will occur in Brazil, Russia, India & China (BRIC’s) at expense of OECD
• China - 4 million new vehicles a year
• US - 3 million vehicles off the road by 2010
Australia is running a Petroleum Deficit- adds to Foreign Debt
Australian Oil and Refined Products Imports
-3500
-3000
-2500
-2000
-1500
-1000
-500
0
Jul-07 Aug-07
Sep-07
Oct-07
Nov-07
Dec-07
Jan-08
Feb-08
Mar-08
Apr-08
May-08
Jun-08
Competition for remaining oil could get nasty
One way to Avoid Previous Slide
• Fair allocations for remaining supplies
• Countries work together to solve problem
• Collapse of systems is averted
• Everyone agrees to consume less
This involves a paradigm shift• Current situation is unsustainable
• Financial Markets crashing is proof we have problems
• Current OECD World cannot handle US$140 oil
• Consumers to conservers and producers
• Passenger numbers on Public transport up!
• Change is already happening
No Silver Bullets only Silver Buckshot
• ELP- Economise, Localise & Produce• Grow food locally• Rail not roads• Ship goods by water• Pay people for productivity not hours• Small is the new big• Smart urban design is essential• Technology will not save us we need
strategies
The World is not Flat!High Oil changes long supply lines
Source: CIBC World Markets
Small is the new big• Horizons shrink
• The best energy to find is conservation
• Conservation starts with shortening supply lines
• Energy and food production comes home
• We rebuild local communities
• Co-operation and pooling of resources
A new currency for a new era?
“We have it in our power to build the world anew”. Thomas Paine
Why a Local Currency?
• To build resilience in the local economy by keeping money circulating in the community and building new relationships
• To get people thinking and talking about how they spend their money
• To encourage more local trade and thus reduce food and trade miles
• To encourage tourists to use local businesses(source: Totnes Pound Project)
Role of Engineers in PO Economy• Develop low energy solutions – Peak Oil &
Global Warming• Teaching and retraining of service industry
workforce• Creative reuse of resources• Engineers understand energy and numbers• EROEI is key to the future• Bringing back rail• Measure energy used in communities• Building new energy infrastructure
This is no longer acceptable
PO Engineers at Work
Is this safe?
Answer:
Consult an Engineer
US Crude Oil
US Gasoline
