Peerless Masterpicks January 2017 edition Masterpicks J… · Bata India is a retailer and producer of footwear in India and part of the Bata shoe organization. The company’s operating

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30

th December 2016

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PORTFOLIO PICKS

STOCK PICKS FOR JANUARY 2017

Stock price in INR

COMPANY SECTOR CMP RATING

POTENTIAL

TARGET

POTENTIAL

UPSIDE

LT INFRASTRUCTURE 1339.20 BUY 1550 15.74%

BATA INDIA CONSUMPTION 448.45 ACCUMULATE 485 8.15%

IOC OIL & GAS 322.95 ACCUMULATE 365 13.02%

COAL INDIA ENERGY 298.65 ACCUMULATE 325 8.82%

ICICI PRU INSURANCE 300.10 ACCUMULATE 330 9.96%

INDUSIND BANK BANK 1105.65 ACCUMULATE 1220 10.34% Time horizon of the recommended stock picks: 12 months unless specified

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UPDATE ON DECEMBER 2016 STOCK PICKS

STOCK

CALL INITATED

AT (INR) DATE

POTENTIAL

TARGET RATING

PRICE (29 Dec

2016)

POWERGRID 185.50 24-Nov-16 215 BUY 180.05

AMBUJA CEM 201.80 24-Nov-16 220 ACCUMULATE 203.55

SUN PHARMA 682.50 24-Nov-16 850 BUY 614.70

BRITANNIA 2945.00 24-Nov-16 3300 ACCUMULATE 2883.15

TECHM 459.50 24-Nov-16 520 ACCUMULATE 482.70 Performance reports of recommended stock return in this report are carried on cash closing price and the call deemed to be open (for 12 months) on F&O expiry date of respective month until target is revised downward/upward depending on companies’ future performance. We have now revised this stock return performance policy from 30 Sep 2016(Oct derivative series) onwards and STOPLOSS BASIS stock calls are not given.

How Benchmark Index- Nifty moved in December 2016

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Global Economy Update:

1) U.S. Fed raises rates, set target of three more hikes in 2017:

Federal Reserve officials amid signs that the U.S. economy soon could shed its long period of

stagnation, approved the first interest rate hike in a year and said it foresees three more increases next

year. The Federal Open Market Committee raised its target range from a range of 0.25 percent to 0.5

percent to 0.5 percent to 0.75 percent. The committee also approved a quarter-point increase in the

discount or primary credit rate from 1 percent to 1.25 percent. The decision was unanimous. The

closely watched dot-plot also indicated a somewhat more ambitious future for hikes.

2) ECB sees inflation surge, firming global recovery : Euro zone inflation will exceed 1 percent at the turn

of the year, hitting a level not seen since late 2013, and global growth is picking up speed, the

European Central Bank said in an economic bulletin on 22nd December. As per ECB, the medium-term

outlook for global activity remains one of strengthening growth, albeit below its pre-crisis pace. Overall

growth appears to be holding up in advanced economies and seems to have bottomed out in emerging

market economies.

3) Japan plans record $830 bn spending in FY2018 : Japan's cabinet approved on Thursday a

record $830 billion spending budget for fiscal 2017 that counts on low interest rates and a weak yen to

limit borrowing. The 97.5 trillion yen ($830 billion) general-account budget for the fiscal year starting on

April 1 marks an increase from this fiscal year's initial target to spend 96.7 trillion yen , as per Ministry of

Finance.

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Indian Economy Wrap: Key Statistics:

1) India's crackdown on cash pushes inflation to a 2-year low : India's retail inflation cooled to a two-year

low in November after Prime Minister Narendra Modi's shock currency replacement program dented

consumer spending. Consumer prices rose by an annual 3.63 percent last month, their slowest pace

since November 2014 compared with a 4.20 gain in October. Food inflation was 2.11 percent last

month, lower than October's 3.32 percent.

2) India's trade deficit widens to $13 billion in November : India's trade deficit widened to $13

billion in November from a provisional $10.16 billion last month, as per the government data.

Merchandise exports grew 2.29 percent year-on-year to $20.0 billion in November, while imports

expanded 10.44 percent year-on-year to $33.02 billion, the data showed.

3) RBI unexpectedly keeps rates unchanged as cash crunch roils economy: The Reserve Bank of India

(RBI) unexpectedly kept its key policy rate unchanged at 6.25 percent on Wednesday, despite calls for

action in the face of an intense cash shortage that threatens to slam the brakes on the world's fastest-

growing large economy. The RBI's monetary policy committee voted 6-0 to leave the repo rate

unchanged, saying it needed more time to assess if the recent cash squeeze would cause more lasting

damage to the economy.In keeping its policy setting steady, the central bank also expressed concerned

about the risk of a flare-up in inflation.

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4) Industrial production shrinks 1.9% in October: Industrial production contracted in October,

resuming its decline after marginal growth in September, suggesting more pain ahead as the impact of

note withdrawal begins to show up. The Index of Industrial Production (IIP) fell 1.9 per cent in October

compared with a 0.7 per cent rise in September and 9.8 per cent growth in the year-ago month, data

released by the Central Statistics Office.

Market Outlook :

Demonetization would weigh negatively on the third quarter numbers as is clearly seen by the sharp dip

( short term ) in demand of Auto, Consumer durables, Real Estate, Travel, Jewellery, Cement etc. In

the near term strengthening USD, weakness in strong consumer demand post demonetization and

uncertainty over implementation of GST, economic policies to be taken by Donald Trump once he takes

over as US President will result in headwinds for equity markets round the world. Moreover, General

elections to be held in Germany, France, Netherlands in 2017 present political risk as if parties

opposing EU membership gain popularity it may result in risk off moves in major asset markets.

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STOCK PICKS

Company Data

Market Cap (cr) 124754.87 cr

52 week high (Rs) 1615

52 week low (Rs) 1016

3m average

volume NSE 1479004

Beta 1.89

Face value ( RS ) 2

Shareholding (%) Q3 FY 2016

Promoters 0.00%

Institutions 56.79%

Non-Institutions 43.08%

Key Financials

FY16 FY15 FY14

Net Sales (Cr) 102226.6 90346.8 85189.9

EBITDA (Cr) 12342.7 2622.5 11094.6

PAT (Cr) 5090.5 4764.8 4902.0

Net Profit Margin% 5.4% 5.4% 5.7%

EPS (Rs.) 54.7 51.3 52.9

Book Value (Cr) 472.3 440.1 406.9

(FY 16-Adjusted)

P/E 54.7 51.3 52.9

P/BV 2.6 3.9 3.1

RONW(%) 11.6% 11.6% 13.0%

ROCE(%) 3.7% 4.1% 4.8%

Larsen & Toubro Ltd.Larsen & Toubro Ltd.Larsen & Toubro Ltd.Larsen & Toubro Ltd. Sector:Sector:Sector:Sector: Construction & EngineeringConstruction & EngineeringConstruction & EngineeringConstruction & Engineering NSE CODE: LT

BUY | PERIOD: 12 Months | CMP: Rs 1339.20| Target: Rs 1550

TECHNICAL VIEW:

• The stock is moving in a downward moving

channel pattern and has completed it gap filling

zone of 1300-1320 making a strong support at

that zone.

• The stock has made a triple bottom support zone

around this area.

• It is likely to move around 1420 in the near term

and long term target will be 1550 which is 71.8%

upward Fibonacci retracement level.

L&T Ltd is a diversified private sector company dealing.

Its operates divisions include Engineering and

Construction Projects, Heavy Engineering, Construction,

Power, Electrical and Electronics, Machinery and

Industrial products, IT & Engineering services, Financial

services, Railway Projects and Ship Building.

Total Consolidated income from operation was up 9% to

Rs 46885 crore during the H1FY17 under review as

against Rs 43172 crore a year ago. Whereas it’s

International revenue grew by 19% in the same period.

Revenue growth mainly driven by Hydrocarbon, Power,

Heavy Engineering and Services businesses.

During H1FY17 EBITDA grew by 11% compare with the

last year same period. Whereas it’s EBITDA margin

improved by 20bps to 9% during the same period.

Margin improvement mainly driven by Heavy

Engineering, Hydrocarbon and Services Businesses.

International business has seen a robust growth with

almost 35% of L&T’s orders are from overseas. Company

bagged orders worth Rs 60,000 crore in Middle East that

kept going for the last two-three years, although the

profitability of the hydrocarbon business.

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Company Data

Market Cap (cr) 5407.1



3m average

volume NSE 461560

Beta 1.16

Face value ( RS ) 5

Shareholding (%) Q3 FY2016

Promoters 52.96%

Institutions 27.60%


Key Financials

FY16 FY15 FY14

Net Sales (Cr) 2457.6 2735.7 2097.2

EBITDA (Cr) 270.6 335.0 322.0

PAT (Cr) 218.5 231.3 190.9


EPS (RS) 17.0 36.0 29.7

Book Value (Cr) 91.9 158.9 130.7

P/E 29.5 30.4 37.0

P/BV 5.6 7.0 8.4

RoNW(%) 18.9% 23.3% 23.5%

RoCE(%) 17.0% 20.7% 20.8%

Bata IndiaBata IndiaBata IndiaBata India Ltd.Ltd.Ltd.Ltd. Sector:Sector:Sector:Sector: Leather/Synthetic ProductsLeather/Synthetic ProductsLeather/Synthetic ProductsLeather/Synthetic Products NSE CODE: BATAINDIA

ACCUMULATE | PERIOD: 12 Months | CMP: Rs 448 | Target: Rs 485

TECHNICAL VIEW:

• The stock has taken breakout from the ascending

triangle pattern on daily charts and is trying to move up.

• The pattern is formed at the bottom of the chart

indicating a strong reversal pattern.

• Target of the stock is around 485 which is ascending

triangle breakout target.

Bata India is a retailer and producer of footwear in India and

part of the Bata shoe organization. The company’s operating

segment includes footwear & accessories and Investment in

joint venture for surplus property development. It sells over 50

million pairs of footwear every year and serves to over 120,000

customers almost every day.

In Q2FY17 standalone revenue stands at Rs 583.75 crore, which

is more or less in concurrence with the same quarter of last year

i.e. Rs. 574.53 crore. During the quarter company launched Bata

European collection and entered into women’s festive segment.

Bata's EBITDA has surged by 11.4% y-o-y to Rs 53.52 crore and

EBITDA margins have improved by 81 bps to 9.2%, triggered by

20% y-o-y drop in raw material costs. However Company's PAT

eroded by 23.2% y-o-y to Rs 34.59 crore, partially driven by

increase in company’s finance costs by 125% y-o-y.

Company plans to add around 30 new retail stores every year to

increase its presence in the Malls and High Street Markets and

30 new Franchisee stores also in the Tier-2 and Tier-3 cities

across India. Bata also plans to open 5 destination stores each

year to provide a unique shopping experience with wide

collection to the consumers.

On e-commerce platform BATA mainly focused on increasing

customer database by reaching out to new set of target

audience and also establishing successful association with many

reputed companies and banks, e.g., HDFC Bank, Standard

Chartered Bank, State Bank of India, Deutsche Bank.

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Company Data




3m average

volume NSE 4383217

Beta 0.85

Face value ( RS ) 10


Promoters 58.3%

Institutions 16.5%


Key Financials

FY16 FY15 FY14

Net Sales (Cr) 355926.6 449508.7 488344.9

EBITDA (Cr) 23181.6 10550.3 17140.5

PAT (Cr) 11219.2 4912.0 7085.6


EPS (RS) 46.2 20.2 29.2

Book Value (Cr) 313.0 283.5 279.7

P/E 4.3 9.2 4.7

P/BV 1.3 1.3 1.0

RoNW(%) 14.8% 7.1% 10.4%

RoCE(%) 8.1% 3.8% 5.6%

Indian Oil Indian Oil Indian Oil Indian Oil Corporation Ltd.Corporation Ltd.Corporation Ltd.Corporation Ltd. Sector:Sector:Sector:Sector: RefineriesRefineriesRefineriesRefineries NSE CODE: IOC

ACCUMULATE | PERIOD: 12 Months | CMP: Rs 323 | Target: RS 365

TECHNICAL VIEW:

• The stock has taken breakout of the symmetrical

triangle pattern as well as asending triangle pattern

• The stock has support around 310 which is the upper

trend line of the symmetrical triangle pattern.

• The medium term target of the stock is 365 which is

pattern target.

Indian Oil Corporation connects business with hydrocarbon

value chain- from refining, pipeline transportation and

marketing of natural gas and petrochemicals. Products include

Indane gas, natural gas, auto gas, petrol/ gasoline, ATF, diesel,

lubricants and greases, marine fuels, industrial fuels, kerosene,

bitumen, petrochemicals, crude oil and special products.

In Q1FY17 the standalone revenue of the company grew by 3%

to Rs 1,00,274 crore Y-o-Y due to improvement of refineries

throughput by 14% Y-o-Y to 15.63 MMT vs.13.68 MMT in the

resultant quarter previous year. Whereas, pickup in pipeline

throughput to 20.97 MMT vs.19.9 MMT in Q2 FY16, also

supported revenue growth.

Meanwhile EBITDA improved 730% Y-o-Y to Rs 5,772 crore in

Q2FY17. Further, drop in other expenses by 20% Y-o-Y also

supported EBITDA growth. The EBITDA margin stood at 5.8%

vs. 0.7% in the same period of last year.

Ongoing India’s rural development recent investment by IOC

is planning to lay a 2,000-km pipeline to carry liquefied

petroleum gas (LPG) from its Kandla import terminal on the

west coast to Gorakhpur in the deep east to cater to growing

demand for cooking gas in the country. The pipeline could cost

Rs 5,000-6,000 crore to build.

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Company Data

Market Cap (cr) 180774.4 cr



3m average

volume NSE 3224867

Beta 0.97



Promoters 79.7%

Institutions 18.0%


Key Financials

FY16 FY15 FY14

Net Sales (Cr) 108150.0 95434.8 89374.5

EBITDA (Cr) 20009.6 18329.2 17117.7

PAT (Cr) 14274.3 13726.6 15111.6


EPS (RS) 22.6 21.7 23.9

Book Value (Cr) 53.7 63.9 67.1

P/E 12.3 16.7 11.8

P/BV 5.4 5.7 4.3

RoNW(%) 42.1 34.0 35.6

RoCE(%) 18.1 16.7 18.9

CoalCoalCoalCoal India Ltd.India Ltd.India Ltd.India Ltd. Sector:Sector:Sector:Sector: Mining/MineralsMining/MineralsMining/MineralsMining/Minerals NSE CODE: COALINDIA

ACCUMULATE | PERIOD: 12 Months | CMP: Rs 298.65 |Target: Rs 325

TECHNICAL VIEW:

• The stock has found support around its long trend

line at 280 levels.

• It has strong support zone in the range of 270-290

and is likely to hold onto these levels as higher

bottom is held and fall is with low volume with

higher volumes on move witnessed.

• It will move towards important target of 325

which is 61.8% of current from from recent high.

CIL engaging business of non-coking coal and coking coal

of various grades for diverse applications. Products include

coking coal, semi coking coal, NLW coking coal, non

coking coal, washed and beneficiated coal, middling,

rejects, CIL / LTC coke, coke fines and tar/ heavy oil/ light

oil/ soft pitch. The company operated 471 mines in 21

coalfields across India.

In Q2FY17 coal India reported a sharp 77% Y-o-Y decline

in its consolidated net profit at Rs 600 crore, mainly due to

lower sales realization and higher provisioning on

employee benefits. During the quarter net sales declined by

7.7% to Rs 15,645 crore from Rs 16,958 crore in the

resultant quarter of last year. Whereas EBITDA fell by

78.2% y-o-y to Rs 743 cr while EBITDA margins declined

to 4.6% Y-o-Y.

On an average, coal prices were raised by 6.29 per cent per

tonne and management believe it would earn additional

revenue of Rs 3,234 crore during May-March this financial

year. Also CIL increased the prices of the lower-grade coal

(G8-G13) by 13.60%-18.03% while reducing the prices of

the higher-grade ones.

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Company Data




3m average

volume NSE 2973330

Beta



Promoters 80.7%

Institutions 4.9%


Key Financials

FY16 FY15 FY14

Net Sales (Cr) 1809.9 1674.2 1648.3

EBITDA (Cr)

PAT (Cr) 1653.0 1640.2 1562.4


EPS (RS) 11.5 11.5 10.9

Book Value (Cr)

(Cons) 41.8 40.4 34.2

P/E(Current) 25.6 NA NA

RoNW(%) 27.6% 28.3% 32.0%

RoCE(%) 1.6% 1.7% 1.9%

ICICI Prudential Life InsuranceICICI Prudential Life InsuranceICICI Prudential Life InsuranceICICI Prudential Life Insurance Sector:Sector:Sector:Sector: FinanceFinanceFinanceFinance---- InsurenceInsurenceInsurenceInsurence NSE CODE: ICICIPRULI

ACCUMULATE | PERIOD: 12 Months | CMP: Rs 300.10| Target: Rs 330

TECHNICAL VIEW:

• The stock is trading in a range of 280-320 for the last one

month.

• Currently the stock is trading around the lower end of

the trading range and is likely to move up.

• The target of the stock is 330 in medium term.

ICICI Prudential is a joint venture between ICICI and Prudential

plc. Total capital infusion stands at Rs. 47.80 billion, with ICICI

Bank holding a stake of 74% and Prudential plc holding 26%. The

company's nation-wide team comprises of over 2000 branches,

over 290,000 advisors; and 24 banc assurance partners.

In Q1FY17 Profit rose to Rs 419 crore in the quarter compared

to Rs 415 crore in the resultant period last year. Expense ratio,

i.e. profitability dividing the expenses with net premium earned,

rose to 13.3% from 12.4%. Income from selling new policies rose

20% to Rs 1,528 crore in Q2. The company report increase in

renewal premium of 15.44% to Rs 3521 crore.

Multi Channel Distribution backed by advanced digital processes

i.e. Access to network of ICICI bank and Standard Chartered

Bank. Continue to invest in agency channel, adding quality

agents and improving productivity. Strong focus on technology

and digitization to reduce dependence on physical presence will

help for farther growth.

Robust & Sustainable Business Model Very low regulatory or

interest rate risk with over 80% of APE5 contribution from ULIP

products; Over 90% of debt investments in AAA rated and

government bonds. Strong focus on renewals (high persistency

ratios)

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Company Data




3m average volume

NSE

Beta 1.77



Promoters 16.7%

Institutions 62.1%


Key Financials

Total Interest Income ( Cr ) 11580.7

Net Interest Income ( Cr ) 7813.5

Operating Income (cr ) 11205.5

PAT ( Cr ) 5951.7

EPS (RS) 39.7

Book Value (Cr) 297.4

Net Interest Margin (X) 3.22

Cost to Income (%) 37.15%

P/BV 3.32

INDUSINDINDUSINDINDUSINDINDUSIND BankBankBankBank Sector:Sector:Sector:Sector: BanksBanksBanksBanks NSE CODE: INDUSINDBK

ACCUMULATE | PERIOD: 12 MONTHS | CMP: 1105.65 | TARGET: Rs. 1220

IndusInd Bank operates in 4 segments i.e. Treasury, Corporate /

Wholesale Banking, Retail Banking and Investment Banking

Operations.

In Q2FY17 the bank posted 25.75% increase in net profit to Rs

704 crore and net profit of Rs 560 crore in the Q2. The total

income also increased to Rs 4,439.72 crore during the quarter,

as against Rs 3,581.31 crore in Q2FY16.

The gross non-performing assets (NPAs) of the bank increased

to 0.90% of the total advances, from 0.77% at the end of

Q2FY16. Also the net NPAs rose to 0.37% from 0.31% of the

total assets.

With the Govt. initiative for digitization the Bank also has taken

up Digitalizing of its businesses as a key thrust area and has

enabled most offerings across Payments, Lending, Deposits and

Third-Party Distribution products for online sales and service.

The Bank has tied up with most of the leading financial

aggregators' portals for online acquisition of new-to-bank

clients.

Distinction rating will help to easy excess of funds i.e. ICRA AA

for Upper Tier II bond A. CRISIL A1+ for certificate of deposit.

IND A1+ for Short Term Debt Instruments. IND AA for Upper

Tier II bond. IND AA+ for Senior bonds.

TECHNICAL VIEW:

• The stock has taken support around 1040 which is a

multiple support zone and has bounced back from this

level.

• It has been making upward ladder type formation with

higher top higher bottom formation on 3 year chart

formation.

• The target of the stock is 1200-1220.

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Research Disclaimer

RATING PARAMETER

BUY We expect the stock to deliver more than 15% returns over the next 12 months

ACCUMULATE We expect the stock to deliver 6% - 15% returns over the next 12 months

REDUCE We expect the stock to deliver 0% - 5% returns over the next 12 months

SELL We expect the stock to deliver negative returns over the next 12 months NOTE Target prices are for a period of 12-month perspective. Returns stated in the rating parameter are for our internal

benchmark.

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Documents

Peerless Masterpicks January 2017 edition Masterpicks J… · Bata India is a retailer and producer of footwear in India and part of the Bata shoe organization. The company’s operating