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Performance Evalua/on of RegCm4 in Simula/ng Tmax, Tmin over SEACLID/CORDEX SEA Domain
E. Aldrian, D. Gunawan, U. A. Linarka, R. Satyaningsih, D. E. Nuryanto, J. Rizal
PUSAT PENELITIAN DAN PENGEMBANGAN BADAN METOROLOGI KLIMATOLOGI DAN GEOFISIKA
Indonesia Task: Sensi/vity of Different Physics Op/ons in RegCM4 to Maximum and Minimum Temperature in Southeast Asian
Model Domain/Sub-‐Regions
From 20 sub region, 50% covering Indonesia regions
Current Status Report
ü 16 experiments were evaluated from total 18 experiments for 20 sub-‐regions
Ø 1 experiment (exp. 3) ignored due to bad simula/on
Ø 1 experiment (exp. 4) broken file on 199704
Ø 3 experiments (exp. 2, 5, 9) “inconsistent” file è s/ll included in analysis
ü Download date: 14 – 28 May 2014
ü Observa/on data: CRU 1980-‐2008 periods
ü Performance Evalua/on for TMAX & TMIN:
Ø Monthly means
Ø Distribu/on (PDF)
Ø Taylor Diagram
Problems
This is the sample of exp.3 simula/on, monthly means pagern from Jan – Nov looks fine but suddenly drop at Dec
Exp10 Thailand Grell Fritsch-‐Chappell BAT S1e Exp11 Thailand Grell Fritsch-‐Chappell Zeng
(iocnroug=1) Exp12 Thailand Grell Fritsch-‐Chappell Zeng
(iocnroug=2) Exp13 Vietnam Grell (land) +
Emanuel (ocean) Arakawa-‐Schubert BAT S1e
Exp14 Vietnam Grell (land) + Emanuel (ocean)
Arakawa-‐Schubert Zeng (iocnroug=1)
Exp15 Vietnam Grell (land) + Emanuel (ocean)
Arakawa-‐Schubert Zeng (iocnroug=2)
Exp16 Malaysia Kuo Arakawa-‐Schubert BAT S1e Exp17 Malaysia Kuo Arakawa-‐Schubert Zeng
(iocnroug=1) Exp18 Thailand Kuo Arakawa-‐Schubert Zeng
(iocnroug=2)
Experiments Summary
Yellow : inconsistent file Blue: ignored Red : broken file for 199704
Run # Country CPS (icup) Closure (igcc) Ocean flux (iocnflx)
Exp01 Indonesia Grell Arakawa-‐Schubert BAT S1e Exp02 Indonesia Grell Arakawa-‐Schubert Zeng
(iocnroug=1) Exp03 Indonesia Grell Arakawa-‐Schubert Zeng
(iocnroug=2) Exp04 Malaysia MIT Emanuel Arakawa-‐Schubert BAT S1e Exp05 Malaysia MIT Emanuel Arakawa-‐Schubert Zeng
(iocnroug=1) Exp06 Malaysia MIT Emanuel Arakawa-‐Schubert Zeng
(iocnroug=2) Exp07 Phillipines Emanuel (land) +
Grell (ocean) Arakawa-‐Schubert/ Fritsch-‐Chappell
BAT S1e
Exp08 Phillipines Emanuel (land) + Grell (ocean)
Arakawa-‐Schubert/ Fritsch-‐Chappell
Zeng (iocnroug=1)
Exp09 Phillipines Emanuel (land) + Grell (ocean)
Arakawa-‐Schubert/ Fritsch-‐Chappell
Zeng (iocnroug=2)
1
2
3
4
5
0
1
0
2
0
3
0
4
0
5
1
0.99
0.95
0.9
0.8
0.7
0.60.5
0.40.30.20.10
Stan
dard
dev
iatio
n
Cor r el a t i on Coe f f i c ie n t
R M S E
TMIN Region 1
01 2
3
456 7891011
121314151617
2
4
6
0
2
0
4
0
6
1
0.99
0.95
0.9
0.8
0.7
0.60.5
0.40.30.20.10
Stan
dard
dev
iatio
n
Cor r el a t i on Coe f f i c ien tR M S E
TMAX Region 1
0
12
3
45
6 7891011
12 1314
1516
17
Best exp.5
Best exp.1
1
2
3
4
5
0
1
0
2
0
3
0
4
0
5
1
0.99
0.95
0.9
0.8
0.7
0.60.5
0.40.30.20.10
Stan
dard
dev
iatio
n
Cor r el a t i on Coe f f i c ie n t
R M S E
TMIN Region 2
012
3
456 7891011
121314151617
1
2
3
4
5
0
1
0
2
0
3
0
4
0
5
1
0.99
0.95
0.9
0.8
0.7
0.60.5
0.40.30.20.10
Stan
dard
dev
iatio
n
Cor r el a t i on Coe f f i c ie n t
R M S E
TMAX Region 2
0
1
2
3
4567
891011
121314
15
16
17
Best exp.15
Best exp.2
1
2
3
4
5
0 10 20 30 40 51
0.99
0.95
0.9
0.80.7
0.60.5
0.40.30.20.10-0.1-0.2-0.3-0.4-0.5
-0.6-0.7
-0.8
-0.9
-0.95
-0.99
-1
Standard deviation
Correlation Coef ficient
RMSE
TMIN Region 3
012
3
4567891011121314151617
1
2
3
4
5
0 10 20 30 40 51
0.99
0.95
0.9
0.80.7
0.60.5
0.40.30.20.10-0.1-0.2-0.3-0.4-0.5
-0.6-0.7
-0.8
-0.9
-0.95
-0.99
-1
Standard deviation
Correlation Coef ficient
RMSE
TMAX Region 3
0
1 2
3
45
6
78 9101112 131415 1617
Best exp.7
Best exp.2
1
2
3
4
5
0
1
0
2
0
3
0
4
0
5
1
0.99
0.95
0.9
0.8
0.7
0.60.5
0.40.30.20.10
Stan
dard
dev
iatio
n
Cor r el a t i on Coe f f i c ie n t
R M S E
TMIN Region 4
012
3
456 78 91011121314
151617
1
2
3
4
5
0 10 20 30 40 51
0.99
0.95
0.9
0.80.7
0.60.5
0.40.30.20.10-0.1-0.2-0.3-0.4-0.5
-0.6-0.7
-0.8
-0.9
-0.95
-0.99
-1
Standard deviation
Correlation Coef ficient
RMSE
TMAX Region 4
0
12
3
456
78
9101112
1314151617
Best exp.1
Best exp.1
1
2
3
4
5
0
1
0
2
0
3
0
4
0
5
1
0.99
0.95
0.9
0.8
0.7
0.60.5
0.40.30.20.10
Stan
dard
dev
iatio
n
Cor r el a t i on Coe f f i c ie n t
R M S E
TMIN Region 5
012
3
456 7891011121314151617
1
2
3
4
5
0 10 20 30 40 51
0.99
0.95
0.9
0.80.7
0.60.5
0.40.30.20.10-0.1-0.2-0.3-0.4-0.5
-0.6-0.7
-0.8
-0.9
-0.95
-0.99
-1
Standard deviation
Correlation Coef ficient
RMSE
TMAX Region 5
0
1 2
3
456 78
9101112131415 1617
Best exp.8
Best exp.1
1
2
3
4
5
0 10 20 30 40 51
0.99
0.95
0.9
0.80.7
0.60.5
0.40.30.20.10-0.1-0.2-0.3-0.4-0.5
-0.6-0.7
-0.8
-0.9
-0.95
-0.99
-1
Standard deviation
Correlation Coef ficient
RMSE
TMIN Region 6
012
3
456 7891011121314151617
1
2
3
4
5
0
1
0
2
0
3
0
4
0
5
1
0.99
0.95
0.9
0.8
0.7
0.60.5
0.40.30.20.10
Stan
dard
dev
iatio
n
Cor r el a t i on Coe f f i c ie n t
R M S E
TMAX Region 6
0
1 2
3
456 78910111213
14151617
Best exp.18
Best exp.5
1
2
3
4
5
0 10 20 30 40 51
0.99
0.95
0.9
0.80.7
0.60.5
0.40.30.20.10-0.1-0.2-0.3-0.4-0.5
-0.6-0.7
-0.8
-0.9
-0.95
-0.99
-1
Standard deviation
Correlation Coef ficient
RMSE
TMIN Region 7
012
3
4567891011121314151617
1
2
3
4
5
0 10 20 30 40 51
0.99
0.95
0.9
0.80.7
0.60.5
0.40.30.20.10-0.1-0.2-0.3-0.4-0.5
-0.6-0.7
-0.8
-0.9
-0.95
-0.99
-1
Standard deviation
Correlation Coef ficient
RMSE
TMAX Region 7
0
12
3
456 7891011121314151617
Best exp.8
Best exp.12
1
2
3
4
5
0 10 20 30 40 51
0.99
0.95
0.9
0.80.7
0.60.5
0.40.30.20.10-0.1-0.2-0.3-0.4-0.5
-0.6-0.7
-0.8
-0.9
-0.95
-0.99
-1
Standard deviation
Correlation Coef ficient
RMSE
TMAX Region 8
0
12
3
45678
91011
121314151617
1
2
3
4
5
0 10 20 30 40 51
0.99
0.95
0.9
0.80.7
0.60.5
0.40.30.20.10-0.1-0.2-0.3-0.4-0.5
-0.6-0.7
-0.8
-0.9
-0.95
-0.99
-1
Standard deviation
Correlation Coef ficient
RMSE
TMIN Region 8
012
3
4567891011121314151617
Best exp.17
Best exp.5/6
1
2
3
4
5
0 10 20 30 40 51
0.99
0.95
0.9
0.80.7
0.60.5
0.40.30.20.10-0.1-0.2-0.3-0.4-0.5
-0.6-0.7
-0.8
-0.9
-0.95
-0.99
-1
Standard deviation
Correlation Coef ficient
RMSE
TMIN Region 9
012
3
456 7891011 121314151617
1
2
3
4
5
0 10 20 30 40 51
0.99
0.95
0.9
0.80.7
0.60.5
0.40.30.20.10-0.1-0.2-0.3-0.4-0.5
-0.6-0.7
-0.8
-0.9
-0.95
-0.99
-1
Standard deviation
Correlation Coef ficient
RMSE
TMAX Region 9
0
12
3
45
678 91011 121314
151617
Best exp.15
Best exp.12
1
2
3
4
5
0 10 20 30 40 51
0.99
0.95
0.9
0.80.7
0.60.5
0.40.30.20.10-0.1-0.2-0.3-0.4-0.5
-0.6-0.7
-0.8
-0.9
-0.95
-0.99
-1
Standard deviation
Correlation Coef ficient
RMSE
TMIN Region 10
012
3
456 7891011121314151617
1
2
3
4
5
0
1
0
2
0
3
0
4
0
5
1
0.99
0.95
0.9
0.8
0.7
0.60.5
0.40.30.20.10
Stan
dard
dev
iatio
n
Cor r el a t i on Coe f f i c ie n t
R M S E
TMAX Region 10
0
12
3
45
6 789 10 11
12 1314151617
Best exp.16
Best exp.2
1
2
3
4
5
0 10 20 30 40 51
0.99
0.95
0.9
0.80.7
0.60.5
0.40.30.20.10-0.1-0.2-0.3-0.4-0.5
-0.6-0.7
-0.8
-0.9
-0.95
-0.99
-1
Standard deviation
Correlation Coef ficient
RMSE
TMIN Region 11
012
3
4567891011121314151617
1
2
3
4
5
0
1
0
2
0
3
0
4
0
5
1
0.99
0.95
0.9
0.8
0.7
0.60.5
0.40.30.20.10
Stan
dard
dev
iatio
n
Cor r el a t i on Coe f f i c ie n t
R M S E
TMAX Region 11
0
1 2
3
456 789
101112
1314
151617
Best exp.11
Best exp.11
1
2
3
4
5
0
1
0
2
0
3
0
4
0
5
1
0.99
0.95
0.9
0.8
0.7
0.60.5
0.40.30.20.10
Stan
dard
dev
iatio
n
Cor r el a t i on Coe f f i c ie n t
R M S E
TMIN Region 12
012
3
456 7891011
121314151617
1
2
3
4
5
0
1
0
2
0
3
0
4
0
5
1
0.99
0.95
0.9
0.8
0.7
0.60.5
0.40.30.20.10
Stan
dard
dev
iatio
n
Cor r el a t i on Coe f f i c ie n t
R M S E
TMAX Region 12
0
1 2
3
45
6 78
91011
12 131415
1617
Best exp.9
Best exp.8
1
2
3
4
5
0
1
0
2
0
3
0
4
0
5
1
0.99
0.95
0.9
0.8
0.7
0.60.5
0.40.30.20.10
Stan
dard
dev
iatio
n
Cor r el a t i on Coe f f i c ie n t
R M S E
TMIN Region 13
012
3
456
7891011121314 151617
1
2
3
4
5
0
1
0
2
0
3
0
4
0
5
1
0.99
0.95
0.9
0.8
0.7
0.60.5
0.40.30.20.10
Stan
dard
dev
iatio
n
Cor r el a t i on Coe f f i c ie n t
R M S E
TMAX Region 13
0
1 2
3
45 6 78910
1112 131415
1617
Best exp.2
Best exp.2
1
2
3
4
5
0
1
0
2
0
3
0
4
0
5
1
0.99
0.95
0.9
0.8
0.7
0.60.5
0.40.30.20.10
Stan
dard
dev
iatio
n
Cor r el a t i on Coe f f i c ie n t
R M S E
TMIN Region 14
0
12
3
456 7891011
121314151617
1
2
3
4
5
0
1
0
2
0
3
0
4
0
5
1
0.99
0.95
0.9
0.8
0.7
0.60.5
0.40.30.20.10
Stan
dard
dev
iatio
n
Cor r el a t i on Coe f f i c ie n t
R M S E
TMAX Region 14
0
12
3
456 78
91011
12131415
1617
Best exp.9
Best exp.8
2
4
6
0
2
0
4
0
6
1
0.99
0.95
0.9
0.8
0.7
0.60.5
0.40.30.20.10
Stan
dard
dev
iatio
n
Cor r el a t i on Coe f f i c ien tR M S E
TMIN Region 15
012
3
456
7891011121314151617
2
4
6
0
2
0
4
0
6
1
0.99
0.95
0.9
0.8
0.7
0.60.5
0.40.30.20.10
Stan
dard
dev
iatio
n
Cor r el a t i on Coe f f i c ien tR M S E
TMAX Region 15
0
1
2
3
45
67
8
9 1011
12
13
14
15
16
17
Best exp.6
Best exp.2
2
4
6
0
2
0
4
0
6
1
0.99
0.95
0.9
0.8
0.7
0.60.5
0.40.30.20.10
Stan
dard
dev
iatio
n
Cor r el a t i on Coe f f i c ien tR M S E
TMIN Region 16
0
12
3
45678
91011 121314151617
2
4
6
0
2
0
4
0
6
1
0.99
0.95
0.9
0.8
0.7
0.60.5
0.40.30.20.10
Stan
dard
dev
iatio
n
Cor r el a t i on Coe f f i c ien tR M S E
TMAX Region 16
0
1
2
3
45
678
9 101112
13
14
151617
Best exp.15
Best exp.2
2
4
6
0
2
0
4
0
6
1
0.99
0.95
0.9
0.8
0.7
0.60.5
0.40.30.20.10
Stan
dard
dev
iatio
n
Cor r el a t i on Coe f f i c ien tR M S E
TMIN Region 17
0
12
3
456 7891011 121314151617
2
4
6
0
2
0
4
0
6
1
0.99
0.95
0.9
0.8
0.7
0.60.5
0.40.30.20.10
Stan
dard
dev
iatio
n
Cor r el a t i on Coe f f i c ien tR M S E
TMAX Region 17
0
12
3
45678
910
111213
14
1516
17
Best exp.16
Best exp.12
2
4
6
8
0
2
0
4
0
6
0
8
1
0.99
0.95
0.9
0.8
0.7
0.60.5
0.40.30.20.10
Stan
dard
dev
iatio
n
Cor r el a t i on Coe f f i c ie n t
R M S E
TMIN Region 18
0
12
3
45
6
7891011121314151617
2
4
6
8
0
2
0
4
0
6
0
8
1
0.99
0.95
0.9
0.8
0.7
0.60.5
0.40.30.20.10
Stan
dard
dev
iatio
n
Cor r el a t i on Coe f f i c ie n t
R M S E
TMAX Region 18
0
1 2
3
45
6
7891011
121314 15 1617
Best exp.5
Best exp.2
2
4
6
8
0
2
0
4
0
6
0
8
1
0.99
0.95
0.9
0.8
0.7
0.60.5
0.40.30.20.10
Stan
dard
dev
iatio
n
Cor r el a t i on Coe f f i c ie n t
R M S E
TMIN Region 19
0
12
3
45
6
7891011121314151617
2
4
6
8
0
2
0
4
0
6
0
8
1
0.99
0.95
0.9
0.8
0.7
0.60.5
0.40.30.20.10
Stan
dard
dev
iatio
n
Cor r el a t i on Coe f f i c ie n t
R M S E
TMAX Region 19
0
12
3
45
6
78
910
11121314
15 1617
Best exp.5
Best exp.5
2
4
6
8
0
2
0
4
0
6
0
8
1
0.99
0.95
0.9
0.8
0.7
0.60.5
0.40.30.20.10
Stan
dard
dev
iatio
n
Cor r el a t i on Coe f f i c ie n t
R M S E
TMIN Region 20
0
12
3
456
7891011121314151617
2
4
6
0
2
0
4
0
6
1
0.99
0.95
0.9
0.8
0.7
0.60.5
0.40.30.20.10
Stan
dard
dev
iatio
n
Cor r el a t i on Coe f f i c ien tR M S E
TMAX Region 20
0
12
3
45
6
78
9
1011 12131415
1617
Best exp.6
Best exp.5
Evalua/on Summary
Sub Region
Best Exp. No. for Tmax
Best Exp. No. for Tmin
11 11 1112 9 813 2 214 9 815 6 216 15 217 16 1218 5 219 5 520 6 5
Sub Region
Best Exp. No. for Tmax
Best Exp. No. for Tmin
1 5 12 15 23 7 24 1 15 8 16 18 57 8 128 17 5/69 15 1210 16 2
Based on Tmax and Tmin analysis on 16 experiments over 20 sub-‐regions: Exp.5 (MIT Emanuel, Arakawa-‐Schubert, Zeng) tend to be the best for simula/ng Tmax while Exp. 2 (Grell, Arakawa-‐Schubert, BAT S1e) good for Tmin. Exp. 16 (Kuo, Arakawa-‐Schubert, BAT S1e) tend to be the best for Tmax and Exp. 2 for Tmin simula/ons only for Indonesia region. Overall, exp.5 tend to be the best experiments overall.
Tmax TminOverestimate (all exp.)
81,2,6,7,9,10,11,12,13,14
Underestimate (all exp.) 1,16 -‐
Sub Region No.Status
Thank You
