PERSPECTIVESOF THE

CFE TREATY

Presentation by: Mr. Michael D. MigginsHead, Arms Control Coordination SectionPolitical Affairs and Security Policy DivisionInternational Staff, HQ NATO

PRESENTATION OUTLINE

• HISTORICAL CONTEXT

• CFE TREATY OVERVIEW

• OPERATIONAL IMPACTS OF CFE TREATY

• CFE TREATY ACCOMPLISHMENTS

• THE ADAPTED TREATY

• CURRENT SITUATION

NATO –WARSAW Pact Force Comparison

MUTUAL AND BALANCED FORCE REDUCTIONS (MBFR)

• HARMEL REPORT OF 1967 - FUTURE TASKS OF THE ALLIANCE•IMPROVED CAPABILITIES AND CONSULTATIONS

• IN 1968 MILITARILY INTEGRATED ALLIES INVITED THE USSR TO PARTICIPATE IN MBFR

• ROME MINISTERIAL 1970 - TWO TRACKS• CONFERENCE ON EUROPEAN SECURITY AND MBFR

• 1973 - 1989 MBFR NEGOTIATIONS • BLOCK TO BLOCK • FOCUS ON CENTRAL EUROPE • GROUND FORCE PERSONNEL CEILING

EVOLUTION OF THE CFE TREATY

HELSINKI PROCESS

MUTUAL ANDBALANCEDFORCEREDUCTIONS

HELSINKIFINAL ACT

STOCKHOLMFINAL ACT

1973

1975

1986

VIENNA DOCUMENT

1973 - 1989

CONVENTIONALSTABILITYTALKS

1987 - 1989

CFENEGOTIATIONS

1989 - 1990

CFE TREATY 1992 - IN PERPETUITYREVIEWCONF1996

ADAPTATIONAGREEMENT1999

199019921994 1999

1970 ROMEMINISTERIAL

DECISION

FUTURE ENTRY IN FORCE OF ADAPTED CFE TREATY

CFE 1 A

REVIEWCONF

REVIEWCONF

222

2001

2006

OPEN SKIESTREATYEIF 02

CONVENTIONAL STABILITY TALKS (CST)

• EAST - WEST EXCHANGES ON ESTABLISHING A STABLE BALANCE OF FORCES AT LOWER LEVELS (1986 - 1987)

• 1987 CST INITIATED IN VIENNA• DEVELOP A MANDATE FOR NEW NEGOTIATIONS

• 1989 AGREEMENT ON THE MANDATE- AREA OF APPLICATION- CONVENTIONAL ARMED FORCES BASED ON LAND- MULTI-CAPABLE ARMAMENTS INCLUDED- NUCLEAR AND CHEMICAL WEAPONS EXCLUDED- NAVAL FORCES EXCLUDED- INFORMATION EXCHANGE AND VERIFICATION- WITHIN THE FRAMWORK OF THE CSCE PROCESS

NEGOTIATION ON CONVENTIONAL ARMED FORCES IN EUROPE

• MARCH 1989 NEGOTIATION INITIATED

• NATO TABLES INITIAL PROPOSALPROPOSED REDUCTION OF 5-10% BELOW NATO LEVELS OF TANKS, ARTILLERY AND ARMORED COMBAT VEHICLES

• FOLOW-ON PROPOSAL INCREASES PROPOSED REDUCTION TO 15% AND ADDS HELICOPTERS AND LAND BASED COMBATAIRCRAFT

• NOVEMBER 1990 CFE TREATY SIGNED

MAIN ELEMENTS OF THE CFE REGIME

• LEGAL IN CHARACTER AND THUS LEGALLY BINDING OBLIGATIONS IN PERPETUITY WITH WITHDRAWAL CLAUSE

• LIMITS FORCE STRUCTURE OF THE 30 STATES PARTIES• IN SIZE AND LOCATION WITHIN THE AREA OF APPLICATION

• LAND TERRITORY OF THE STATES PARTIES WITHIN THE • ATLANTIC TO URALS AREA OF APPLICATION

• PARITY OF CEILINGS IN A BLOCK TO BLOCK FORMAT

• REQUIREMENT FOR HOST NATION CONSENT FOR THE• STATIONING OF FOREIGN FORCES

• SIGNED: 19 NOV 90; MODIFIED: 31 MAY 96; ADAPTED 19 NOV 99

• STATES PARTIES: 30 (22 ALLIES + 8 PARTNERS)

TREATY OBJECTIVES

• ESTABLISH A SECURE AND STABLE BALANCE OF CONVENTIONAL ARMED FORCES AT LOWER LEVELS

• ELIMINATE THE CAPABILITY FOR SURPRISE ATTACK AND LARGE SCALE OFFENSIVE ACTION

• ESTABLISH A NEW PATTERN OF SECURITY RELATIONS

CFE TREATY MEASURES

• NATIONAL AND GROUP LIMITS ON 5 CATEGORIES OF EQUIPMENT (BATTLE TANKS, ARMORED COMBAT VEHICLES, ARTILLERY, ATTACK HELICOPTERS, COMBAT AIRCRAFT)

• REGIONALLY DIFFERENTIATED SUB-LIMITS

• REDUCTIONS

• COMPREHENSIVE EXCHANGE OF INFORMATION AND REQUIRED NOTIFICATIONS

• LEGALLY BINDING INTRUSIVE ON-SITE INSPECTION REGIME

• PROPRIETY OF INFORMATION

CURRENT STRUCTURE OF CFE LIMITATIONS (CEILINGS)

BelgiumCanadaDenmarkFranceGermanyGreeceIcelandItalyLuxembourgNetherlandsNorwayPortugalSpainTurkeyUnited KingdomUnited States

ArmeniaAzerbaijanBelarusBulgariaCzech RepGeorgia HungaryKazakhstanMoldovaPolandRomaniaRussian FederationSlovakiaUkraine

Group Ceilings

BT: 20,000

ACVs: 30,000

Art: 20,000

CAIR 6,800

AHs: 2,000

Group Ceilings

BT: 20,000

ACVs: 30,000

Art: 20,000

CAIR 6,800

AHs: 2,000

CHANGING GROUPS OF STATES PARTIES

• CFE Treaty reaffirms the sovereign right of nations “to be or not to be a party to treaties of alliance.”

• Article II defines the membership of each Group of States Parties

• Article XXI provides a methodology for a States Party to leave its Group of States Parties or join the other Group of States Parties

• No automaticity in the Treaty requiring a States Party in one Group of States Parties, which changes its security alliance, to join the other Group of States Parties – National decision

OPERATIONAL IMPACTS

• STATES PARTIES MAY ONLY MAINTAIN, STATION OR DEPLOY AIR AND GROUND TREATY LIMITED EQUIPMENT IN SUB-REGIONS WHERE THEY HAVE A CFE “ENTITLEMENT”

• “SUFFICIENCY” ARTICLE

• FLANK “REGIME” IMPOSES TIGHTER LIMITS BUT DOES PROVIDE FOR LIMITED TEMPORARY DEPLOYMENTS

• PROVISIONS FOR TRANSITS

• SIZE AND COMPOSTION OF FORCES LIMITED BY ENTITLEMENTS TO TREATY LIMITED EQUIPMENT (TLE)

• LIMITS ON STORED TREATY LIMITED EQUIPMENT

• TRANSPARENCY REQUIREMENTS

TREATY ON CONVENTIONAL ARMED FORCES IN EUROPE (CFE) cont.

ACCOMPLISHMENTS:

• 60,000 TLE REDUCED

• 4,500+ ON-SITE INSPECTIONS

• CFE DEMONSTRATED ITS VIABILITY IN PEACE TIME AND DURING CRISES

• A NEW PATTERN OF EUROPEAN SECURITY RELATIONS HAS BEEN ESTABLISHED

THE ADAPTED CFE TREATY - MAIN FEATURES

• NEW STRUCTURE OF LIMITATIONS

• TEMPORARY DEPLOYMENTS

• ENHANCED VERIFICATION REGIME

• A MORE TRANSPARENT SYSTEM OF NOTIFICATIONS

• STRENGTHENING OF HOST NATION CONSENT REQUIREMENTS

• ACCESSION CLAUSE

THE NEW SYSTEM OF LIMITATIONS NATIONAL AND TERRITORIAL CEILINGS (NCs/TCs)

• BLOC-TO -BLOC STRUCTURE REPLACED BY A NEW SYSTEM OFLIMITATIONS BASED ON NATIONAL AND TERRITORIAL CEILINGS (NCS/TCS) FOR TLE

• EACH STATE PARTY WILL HAVE AN “NC” LIMITING ITS HOLDINGS OF THE FIVE CATEGORIES OF TLE TO NO MORE THAN ITS CURRENT NMLH WITHIN THE AREA OF APPLICATION (AOA)

• EACH STATE PARTY WITH TERRITORY IN THE AOA WILL HAVE A “TC”FOR EACH OF THE THREE CATEGORIES OF GROUND TLE

• NCs/TCs CAN BE REVISED BASED ON THE PRINCIPLE OF “ONE UP-ONE DOWN” IN ACCORDANCE WITH SPECIFIEDLIMITATIONS

• LEVELS OF NCs/TCs ARE NOW ESTABLISHED

NATIONAL CEILINGS SPECIFIED IN THE ADAPTED CFE TREATY

TERRITORIAL CEILINGS SPECIFIED IN THE ADAPTED CFE TREATY

TEMPORARILY EXCEEDING TERRITORIAL CEILINGS

• TCs MAY BE EXCEEDED FOR THE FOLLOWING REASONS:

• MILITARY OPERATIONS IN SUPPORT OF PEACE UNDER A UNOR OSCE MANDATE

• MILITARY EXERCISES

• TEMPORARY DEPLOYMENTS

•• BASIC TEMPORARY DEPLOYMENT (BTD)(153 BTs/241 ACVs/140 ARTILLERY PIECES)

•• EXCEPTIONAL TEMPORARY DEPLOYMENT (ETD)(459 BTs/723 ACVs/420 ARTILLERY PIECES)

• THERE ARE SPECIFIC TRANSPARENCY AND INSPECTION MEASURES ASSOCIATED WITH BTDs/ETDs

ENHANCED VERIFICATION REGIME

• Enhanced monitoring and verification regime to better track TLE and units

• Increase in inspections (15% to 20% of PQ)

• Preservation of the 11 supplementary inspections to the Russian and Ukraine Flanks

• Two new types of inspections:• Designated area inspections • Notification and observation of disposal events

• HOST NATION CONSENT

No State Party has the right to station, transfer, or temporarily deploy TLE on or across the territory of another State Party without the freely expressed consent of the host State Party.

• ACCESSION CLAUSE

Opened Treaty to Accession by OSCE States with territory within the ATTU area. Requests for accession will be considered an individual basis with the decision on accession being reached byconsensus the 30 current States Parties

THE ADAPTED CFE TREATY - MAIN FEATURES

A MORE TRANSPARENT SYSTEM OF NOTIFICATIONS:

• ANNUAL NOTIFICATION OF ACTUAL LOCATION OF TLE (AS OPPOSED TO ASSIGNED)

• SEMI-ANNUAL RUSSIAN FLANK INFORMATION• ADDITIONAL INFORMATION IN NOTIFICATIONS OF 10%

CHANGES IN UNIT TLE HOLDINGS• ADDITIONAL INFORMATION IN ANNUAL NOTIFICATIONS OF TLE

THAT ENTERED INTO FORCE/WERE REMOVED FROM SERVICE• NOTIFICATION OF AUTHORISATION FOR USE OF HEADROOM• NOTIFICATION OF TRANSITS• QUARTERLY INFORMATION ON NUMBERS OF TLE PRESENT IN

EACH TERRITORIAL UNIT

THE ADAPTED CFE TREATY - MAIN FEATURES

A MORE TRANSPARENT SYSTEM OF NOTIFICATIONS: (cont.)

• NOTIFICATION OF RELOCATION OF TLE ABOVE THRESHOLDS INTO ANOTHER TERRITORY

• NOTIFICATIONS OF EVENTS WHEN THRESHOLDS FOR GROUND TLE ENTERING OR EXITING THE AREA ARE EXCEEDED.

• INFORMATION RELATING TO CERTAIN EVENTS INVOLVING ATTACK HELICOPTERS AND COMBAT AIRCRAFT

• NOTIFICATION AND INFORMATION ON TEMPORARY DEPLOYMENTS THAT EXCEED A TERRITORIAL CEILING

• ANNUAL DATA ON APC AMBULANCES DISAGGREGATED BY LOCATION.

• NOTIFICATION TO PROVIDE TRANSPARENCY ON PEACEKEEPING OPERATIONS

THE ADAPTED CFE TREATY - MAIN FEATURES

CURRENT SITUATION

• Russia “suspended” its implementation of the CFE Treaty on 12 December 2007

• Indications of this go back to the 2006 CFE Review Conference

• President Putin’s Statements in April

• Extraordinary Conference Russia’s 6 Exception Circumstances for Suspension

• DUMA action

• Gen. Baluyevsky has stated that the CFE regime is no longer in the national security interests of the Russian Federation

CURRENT SITUATION – ALLIANCE POSITION

• Alliance Communiqué of 7 December 2007 and its response on 12 December 2007 to Russian “suspension” of its implementation of the Treaty contain the Alliance’s position on the CFE issue (www.NATO.INT/A-Z/Arms Control)

• Alliance remains firmly committed to the CFE Treaty as a cornerstone of Euro-Atlantic security and to the entry into force of the Adapted CFETreaty

• CFE is one of the most successful arms control treaties in history

• Treaty provides verifiable and legally binding limits on the force structure of the major players in Euro-Atlantic security which highly benefits the entire Euro-Atlantic area

• Alliance is pursuing a multifaceted approach based on a “Parallel Action Package” which addresses Russia’s stated concerns and if accepted as the basis of resolution would result in entry into force of the Adapted Treaty to which all States Parties remain committed