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PIIC Agenda
The 14th PIIC Beijing Seminaron International Security
October 19-22, 2014 / Hangzhou China 02
October 19 (Sunday)
October 20 (Monday)
Registration: Venue: 18:15-20:00 Venue:
9:00-12:00 and 14:00-18:00Lobby of Zhejiang Hotel
Reception Banquet: Hosted by Mr. Li Wuwei (Former vice chairman of the CPPCC)Lilac Café
9:00-9:50Venue: Invited Speech:
9:50-10:15
10:15-12:15
Venue: Du Xiangwan Ye Qizhen
Tatsujiro Suzuki Pan Ziqiang
Opening Session (Moderator: Li Hua)Guiyu HallLi Yang (Arms Control Department, Ministry of Foreign Affairs, CHINA)
Tea Break
Plenary Session 1: Nuclear Energy and Nuclear Security (Moderator: Yang Fujia)Guiyu HallThe Future of Nuclear Energy in ChinaPresent Situation and Prospect of the Development of Nuclear Power in PRC Nuclear Fuel Cycle Options for Japan after the Fukushima Nuclear AccidentNuclear Security and Safety in China
03
12:15-14:00 Venue:
14:00-15:45
Venue: Rajaraman Ramamurti Kang Jungmin Chaim Braun Fan Jishe
15:45-16:00
16:00-18:00
Venue: Henry Sokolski
Kelsey HartiganMirco Elena
Masafumi Matsunaga
14:00-15:45
Venue: Sue Clark
LunchLilac Café
Parallel Session (A1): Nuclear Security and Safety (Moderator: Deborah Rosenblum)Guiyu HallLessons from the Three Nuclear SummitsNuclear Power Plant Safety and SecurityCooperative Nuclear Energy Safety Regime in Northeast AsiaChina’s Nuclear Security Concept: A Balanced and Better Approach
Tea Break
Parallel Session (A2): Nuclear Power Development and Nonproliferation (Moderator: Zhu Xuhui)Guiyu HallSerious Rules for Nuclear Power without ProliferationNew Approaches to the Nuclear Fuel CycleSecurity Implications of Changing Energy StrategiesReprocessing in Japan and Japan’s Plutonium Stock
Parallel Session (B1): Nuclear Forensic and Technological Cooperation (Moderator: Joseph Pilat)Lianhua HallBuilding Confidence in Technical Nuclear Forensics Methods: Experiences Analyzing Standard Reference Materials for Actinide
October 19-22, 2014 / Hangzhou China
04
Zhao Yonggang Nathalie Wall Larry Brandt
Jason Reinhardt
15:45-16:00
16:00-18:00 Venue: Alexander Glaser Yan Jie
Zia Mian Zhu Jianyu
18:00-20:00 Venue:
Elemental and Isotopic CompositionNuclear Forensic Development in ChinaAspects of Technetium Chemistry in the EnvironmentChina-U.S. Technical Cooperation on Nuclear Risk Reduction: Past Accomplishments and Future OpportunitiesThe Role of Systems and Risk Analysis in Nuclear Matters?
Tea Break
Parallel Session (B2): Disarmament and Verification (Moderator: Chen Kai)Lianhua HallNew Verification Challenges and Opportunities for Nuclear Arms Control and DisarmamentThe Challenge of Nuclear Warhead Verification For Arms Control and Disarmament: A Review of Attribute and Template SystemsNext Steps in Increasing Transparency of Nuclear Warhead and Fissile Material Stocks for Nuclear Disarmament The Application of Truncated Count Imaging in Nuclear Reduction Verification
Dinner Lilac Café
October 19-22, 2014 / Hangzhou China
The 14th PIIC Beijing Seminaron International Security
October 21 (Tuesday)
05
9:00-10:30
Venue: Sig Hecker
Li Changhe Frank von HippelPaolo Cotta Ramusino
10:30-10:45
10:45-12:30
Venue: Victor Gilinsky Matthew Cottee
Joseph Pilat
Zhang Hui
Guo Xiaobing
12:30-14:00 Venue:
14:00-16:00
Venue:
Plenary Session 2: Enhancement of International Nuclear Nonproliferation Regime (Moderator: Qian Lihua )Guiyu HallNorth Korea Nuclear Program: A 10-Year RetrospectiveNuclear Problems on Korean PeninsulaIran and Multinational EnrichmentProblems of Nuclear Proliferation and Disarmament in the Middle East
Tea Break
Plenary Session 3: International SecurityCooperation and Reducing the Risks of Nuclear Terrorism (Moderator: Carlo Schaerf)Guiyu HallRethinking Nuclear Power RisksThe Nuclear Security Regime: Past, Present & FutureCascading Proliferation Fears and the Development of the Nonproliferation RegimeNext Steps for Strengthening China’s Nuclear SecurityNuclear Security in China: Perceptions and Practices
LunchLilac Café
Plenary Session 4: Verification Technologies for Arms Control (Moderator: Page Stoutland)Guiyu Hall
October 19-22, 2014 / Hangzhou China
06
Li GenxinGrenard Patrick
Kelsey HartiganBenjamin Rusek
16:00-16:30
16:30-18:00 Venue: David SantoroCaroline Milne
Xia Liping
16:30-18:00
Venue: Lora Saalman
James Mark Acton
Zhao Tong
18:00-20:00Venue:
Political and Technologic Challenge in CTBTOSustaining the Technology Base of the CTBT Verification RegimeMonitoring and Verification TechnologiesMonitoring and Verification for Confidence Building
Tea Break
Parallel Session (A3): Global Strategic Stability (Moderator: Alessandro Pascolini)Guiyu HallExtended Deterrence in Northeast AsiaPerceptions of Mutual Vulnerability between Advanced Nuclear StatesStrategic Stability between China and the US from the Perspectives of the New Model of Major Powers Relations
Parallel Session (B3): Conventional Strategic Weapons and Stability (Moderator: Hu Xiaodi)Lianhua HallImpact of Prompt Global Strike Technologies on Sino-U.S. Strategic StabilityConventional Prompt Global Strike: Progress, Prospects and Implications for Strategic StabilityAddressing the Challenge of Conventional Strategic Weapons on Strategic Balance and Nuclear Stability
Dinner Lilac Café
October 19-22, 2014 / Hangzhou China
The 14th PIIC Beijing Seminaron International Security
October 22 (Wednesday)
07
Plenary Session 5: Strategic Stability in the NewInternational Security Situation (Moderator: Cui Liru)Guiyu HallEnhancing U.S.-China Mutual Strategic PredictabilityArms Control and Strategic StabilityWhy the US Missile Defense Will Be Unreliable in Combat
Tea Break
Closing Session (Moderator: Li Hua)
Carlo Schaerf (ISODARCO)Deborah Rosenblum (NTI)Zhu Rui (CPAPD)Yang Mingjie (CICIR)
Lunch Lilac Café
Meeting Activity: Visit Qinshan Nuclear Station(14:00 Depart from Lobby Gate by Buses)
DinnerLilac Café
9:00-10:45
Venue: Lewis DunnSun XiangliTheodore Postol
10: 45-11: 00
11: 00-12:00 Closing Remarks by:
12:00-14:00 Venue:
14:00-18:00
18:00-20:00Venue:
October 19-22, 2014 / Hangzhou China
Note: Speakers are allotted 15 minutes each to address the main issues of their topics.
08
ParticipantsJames Mark ACTON Carnegie Endowment forInternational Peace, [email protected]
Kazim BATMAZOğLU Leeds Metropolitan University / Leeds / UK, [email protected]
Emma BELCHER John D. and Catherine T. MacArthur Foundation, [email protected]
George BOGDENUniversity of Oxford, [email protected]
Larry BRANDT Center for International Security and Cooperation, Stanford University, [email protected]
Chaim BRAUNStanford University, [email protected]
Chen JingmeiInstitute of Applied Physics and Computational Mathematics, CHINA
Chen KaiChina Arms Control andDisarmament, [email protected]
Chen RuiChina Academy of EngineeringPhysics, CHINA
Chen XuzhouChina Arms Control andDisarmament, [email protected]
Sue CLARK Washington State University, [email protected]
October 19-22, 2014 / Hangzhou China
Paolo Cotta-RamusinoPugwash, [email protected]
The 14th PIIC Beijing Seminaron International Security
09 October 19-22, 2014 / Hangzhou China
Cui LiruChina Institutes of Contemporary International Relations, [email protected]
Myagmar DOVCHINThe Mongolian Institute for Geopolitical Studies, [email protected]
Du Jiexin China Academy of Engineering Physics, CHINA
Du Xiangwan China Academy of Engineering Physics, CHINA
Du ShengMinistry of Foreign Affair, CHINA
Du Yanjun China Institutes of ContemporaryInternational Relations, [email protected]
Duan Zhanyuan China Arms Control and Disarmament, [email protected]
Lewis DUNNScience Applications International Corporation, [email protected] or [email protected]
Mirco ELENAProvincia Autonoma di Trento, [email protected]
Feng WenChina Academy of Engineering Physics, CHINA
Fan Jishe Institute of American Studies, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, [email protected]
Matthew COTTEEInternational Institude of Strategic Studies (IISS), [email protected]
10October 19-22, 2014 / Hangzhou China
Fei XiaojunChina International Institute for strategic Society, [email protected]
Geng QingyunChinese Nuclear Society, [email protected]
Victor GILINSKY Consultant, [email protected]
Alexander GLASER Princeton University, [email protected]
Patrick GRENARD CTBTO, Viena, [email protected]
Gu Guoliang Institute of American Studies, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, [email protected]
Guo XiaobingChina Institutes of Contemporary International Relations, [email protected]
Hang YihongChina Academy of Engineering Physics, CHINA
Hao FanhuaChina Academy of Engineering Physics, [email protected]
Kelsey HARTIGANNuclear Threat Initiative, [email protected]
Siegfried HECKERStanford University, [email protected] (Cc: [email protected])
John FEIMacArthur Foundation, [email protected]
The 14th PIIC Beijing Seminaron International Security
11 October 19-22, 2014 / Hangzhou China
Li HuaInstitute of Applied Physics and Computational Mathematics, [email protected]
Li JiaChina Academy of Engineering Physics, [email protected]
Jiang KangCentre for Science and Security Studies, Department of War Studies, King's College London, [email protected]
Jiang YiminChina Academy of Engineering Physics, [email protected]
Jin XikangNorthwest Institute of Nuclear Technology, CHINA [email protected]
Jungmin KANG Korea Advanced Institute of Science and Technology, [email protected]
Kang ChunmeiChina Academy of EngineeringPhysics, [email protected]
Gregory KULACKI Union of Concerned Scientists, [email protected]
Li ChangheChina Arms Control andDisarmament, [email protected]
Li GenxinCTBTO, UN, [email protected]
Hu SideChina Academy of Engineering Physics, [email protected]
Hu XiaodiMinistry of Foreign Affairs, [email protected]
April HUMBLE Climate Service Center, BRITISH (Scottish)[email protected]
Hou HongyuChinese People's Association for Peace and Disarmament, [email protected]
12October 19-22, 2014 / Hangzhou China
Li PengChina Defence Science and Technology Information Center, CHINA
Li WuweiChinese People's Association for Peace and Disarmament, CHINA
Li YangMinistry of Foreign Affairs, CHINA
Liao KeChina Academy of Engineering Physics, CHINA
Liu BoChina Institutes of Contemporary International Relations, [email protected]
Liu GongliangInstitute of Applied Physics andComputational Mathematics, CHINA
Liu XiaomingChina Arms Control andDisarmament, [email protected]
Lu YinNational Defense University, [email protected]
Luo FeiChina Academy of Engineering Physics, [email protected]
Luo WenhuaChina Academy of Engineering Physics, [email protected]
Ma ChunyanChina Defence Science and Technology Information Center,CHINA
Masafumi MATSUNAGAIPFM(Japan Member), [email protected]
Miao YongChinese People's Association for Peace and Disarmament, CHINA
The 14th PIIC Beijing Seminaron International Security
Zia MIANProgram on Science & GlobalSecurity, Princeton University, [email protected]
13 October 19-22, 2014 / Hangzhou China
Ramamurti RAJARAMANJawaharlal Nehru University, [email protected], [email protected]
Jason REINHARDTCenter for International Security and Cooperation (CISAC), Stanford University, [email protected]
Deborah ROSENBLUMNuclear Threat Initiative, USA
Benjamin RUSEKCommittee on International Securityand Arms Control (CISAC), U.S. National Academy of Sciences, [email protected]
Joseph PILATLos Alamos National Laboratory, [email protected]
Theodore POSTOLMassachusetts Instituteof Technology, [email protected]
Qiu YongChina Academy of EngineeringPhysics, [email protected]
Qian LihuaChina Arms Control and Disarmament, CHINA
Caroline MILNEWoodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs, PrincetonUniversity, [email protected]
Ouyang LipingChina Institutes of Contemporary International Relations, CHINA
Pan ZiqiangChina Nuclear Industry Corporation,CHINA
Alessandro PASCOLINIDepartment of physics andastronomy, [email protected]
14October 19-22, 2014 / Hangzhou China
Lora SAALMANAsia-Pacific Center for Security Studies, [email protected]
David SANTOROPacific Forum CSIS, [email protected]
Carlo SCHAERF University of Rome "Tor Vergata", Isodarco, [email protected]
Oleg SEROVEmbassy of the RussianFederation, [email protected]
Najmuddin SHAIKHFormer ForeignSecretary. PAKISTAN, [email protected]
Sha ZhipingChina Instituty of NuclearInformatian & Economics, [email protected]
Shen LixinChinese Nuclear Society, CHINA
Shen YanpingChina Academy of Engineering Physics, [email protected]
Shi LeleiChina Instituty of Nuclear Informatian & Economics, [email protected]
Shi ShaozhuNorthwest Institute of Nuclear Technology, [email protected]
Shi Jianbin China Academy of Engineering Physics, [email protected]
The 14th PIIC Beijing Seminaron International Security
Henry SOKOLSKINonproliferation Policy Education Center (NPEC), [email protected]
15 October 19-22, 2014 / Hangzhou China
Sun HaiyangSecond artillery commandcollege, [email protected]
Sun XiangliChina Academy of EngineeringPhysics, [email protected]
Tatsujiro SUZUKIResearch Center for NuclearWeapons Abolition(RECNA),Nagasaki University, [email protected]
Tian JingmeiChina Academy of Engineering Physics, [email protected]
Tian Dongfeng China Academy of Engineering Physics, [email protected]
Frank VON HIPPELPrinceton University, [email protected]
Nathalie WALLWashington State University, [email protected]
Mark B.M. SUHKorean Pugwash Group, [email protected]
Song XiangyuChina Instituty of NuclearInformatian & Economics, [email protected]
Page STOUTLANDNuclear Threat Initiative, [email protected]
Su JiahangChina Academy of Engineering Physics, [email protected]
Shuai maobingChina Academy of Engineering Physics, [email protected]
16October 19-22, 2014 / Hangzhou China
Wang DeliInstitute of Applied Physics and Computational Mathematics, CHINA
Wang ZhengChina Defence Science and Technology Information Center, [email protected]
Wei FayuanChina Academy of Engineering Physics, [email protected]
Wei MengfuChina Academy of Engineering Physics, [email protected]
Wu JunInstitute of Applied Physicsand Computational Mathematics, [email protected]
Wu xingchunChina Academy ofEngineering Physics, CHINA
Xia LipingTongji University, [email protected]
Xia RuijiaChina Arms Control andDisarmament, CHINA
Xiang QingpeiChina Academy of Engineering Physics, [email protected]
Xiang XunChina Academy ofEngineering Physics, CHINA
Xiang YongchunChina Academy of Engineering Physics, [email protected]
The 14th PIIC Beijing Seminaron International Security
Xie DongInstitute of Applied Physics and Computational Mathematics, CHINA [email protected]
17 October 19-22, 2014 / Hangzhou China
Ye QizhenChina Nuclear Industry Corporation, CHINA
Ye YuguanChina Academy of EngineeringPhysics, [email protected]
Ying YangjunInstitute of Applied Physics andComputational Mathematics , CHINA
Yu XiaolingChina Defence Science and TechnologyInformation Center, [email protected]
Yang FujiaFudan University, [email protected]
Yang MingjieChina Institutes of ContemporaryInternational Relations, [email protected]
Yan JiePrinceton University, [email protected]
Xu XuefengChina Academy of Engineering Physics, [email protected]
Xie WenxiongChina Academy of Engineering Physics, [email protected]
Xu RongChina Arms Control and Disarmament, [email protected]
Xu WeidiNational Defense University, [email protected]
Xu WenliChina Academy of Engineering Physics, CHINA
18October 19-22, 2014 / Hangzhou China
Yuan EnlunChina Academy of Engineering Physics, [email protected]
Yue JiangfengChina Defence Science and Technology Information Center, [email protected]
ZHANG Hui Harvard University, [email protected]
Zhang Chuanfei China Academy of Engineering Physics, CHINA
Zhang HongInstitute of Applied Physics and Computational Mathematics, CHINA
Zhang LixingNorthwest Institute of Nuclear Technology, CHINA [email protected]
Zhang MengChina Defence Science and Technology Information Center, [email protected]
Zhang PingNorthwest Institute of Nuclear Technology, CHINA
Zhang SongbaiInstitute of Applied Physics and Computational Mathematics, [email protected]
Zhao TongCarnegie Endowment for International Peace, CHINA [email protected]
Zhang YuChina Foundation forInternational Strategic Studies, [email protected]
Zhao WuwenChina Academy of Engineering Physics, [email protected]
The 14th PIIC Beijing Seminaron International Security
Zhao YonggangChina Institute of Atomic Energy, [email protected]
Zheng YanChina Academy of Engineering Physics, [email protected]
Zhou LinChina Academy of EngineeringPhysics, [email protected]
Zhu JianyuChina Academy of Engineering Physics, [email protected]
Zhu MingChina Academy ofEngineering Physics, CHINA
Zhu RuiChinese People's Association for Peace and Disarmament, [email protected]
Zou YunhuaChina Defence Science and Technology Information Center, [email protected]
Zhu XuhuiChina Nuclear IndustryCorporation, [email protected]
19 October 19-22, 2014 / Hangzhou China
About the Sponsors
Institute of Applied Physics and Computational MathematicsThe Beijing Institute of Applied Physics and Computational Mathematics
was founded in 1958. Its areas of study include theoretical physics, nuclear
and particle physics, plasma physics, laser physics, fluid dynamics, applied
mathematics, computational mathematics, computer applications, and arms
control science and technology.
International School of Disarmament and Research on ConflictsThe International School of Disarmament and Research on Conflicts
(ISODARCO) is a non-government organization founded in 1966 by two Italian
physics professors, Edoardo Amaldi and Carlo Schaerf, which offers a unique
international forum on security problems throughout the world. ISODARCO’s
purpose is to bring together those with a great variety of experiences and
approaches relating to security problems with discussions focused on
commissioned expert papers.
China Institutes of Contemporary International RelationsChina Institutes of Contemporary International Relations (CICIR) is a
comprehensive research institution for international studies. In compliance
with the directive of the State Council to set up a series of new institutions
for international studies, the predecessor organization, China Institute of
Contemporary International Relations, announced its official establishment
in 1980. In 2003, the Institute was renamed and upgraded to China Institutes
of Contemporary International Relations. CICIR consists of 11 institutes, two
research divisions under direct supervision of CICIR leaders, eight research
centers and several administrative departments. CICIR has now a staff of 380,
including researchers, administrative and logistic personnel, among whom 150
are research professors or associate research professors.
20October 19-22, 2014 / Hangzhou China
The 14th PIIC Beijing Seminaron International Security
21 October 19-22, 2014 / Hangzhou China
Chinese People’s Association for Peace and DisarmamentFounded in June 1985, the Chinese People’s Association for Peace and
Disarmament (CPAPD) is the largest Chinese non-governmental peace
association with a total of 24 influential member organizations. The
objectives of the CPAPD are to promote mutual understanding, friendship
and cooperation between the peoples of China and the rest of the world in
joint efforts to maintain world peace, oppose an arms race and war, achieve
arms control and disarmament, strive for complete prohibition and thorough
destruction of nuclear weapons and other weapons of mass destruction,
protect ecological environment, and promote social harmony and sustainable
development.
Nuclear Threat InitiativeThe Nuclear Threat Initiative (NTI) is a nonprofit, nonpartisan organization
with a mission to strengthen global security by reducing the risk of use and
preventing the spread of nuclear, biological and chemical weapons and to
work to build the trust, transparency and security that are preconditions to
the ultimate fulfillment of the Non-Proliferation Treaty’s goals and ambitions.
Recognizing that governments have most of the resources and authority in the
large-scale work of threat reduction, NTI emphasizes leverage—using its voice
to raise awareness and advocate solutions; undertaking direct action projects
that demonstrate new ways to reduce threats; and foster new thinking about
these problems. Founders Ted Turner and former U.S. Senator Sam Nunn
serve as co-chairmen of the board of directors, which includes members from
China, India, Japan, Jordan, Pakistan, Russia, Sweden, the United Kingdom and
the United States.
