PLANNINGPOLICYANDGUIDELINESFORMISSOURI

LOCALWORKFORCEDEVELOPMENTBOARDSProgramYears2016–2020

LWDA=LocalWorkforceDevelopmentArea IV. Economic,LaborMarket,andWorkforceAnalysis

IfusingMissouriEconomicResearchandInformationCenter(MERIC)data,pleaseindicatethesourceisMERIC.Ifusinganotherresource,pleasereferencethesource.MERICregionalrepresentativescanbefoundonlineat:https://www.missourieconomy.org/about_us/contactus.stm#RegionalContactsA. EconomicAnalysis

1. DescribetheLWDA’scurrenteconomiccondition,includingthefollowinginformationbycounty(ifyourLWDAincludesmorethanonecounty)andtheoverallregion:• Averagepersonalincomelevel;• Numberandpercentofworking-agepopulationlivingatorbelowpovertylevel;• Unemploymentratesforthelastfiveyears;• Majorlayoffeventsoverthepastthreeyearsandanyanticipatedlayoffs;and• Anyotherfactorsthatmayaffectlocal/regionaleconomicconditions.

B. LaborMarketAnalysis

1 ExistingDemandIndustrySectorsandOccupationsProvideananalysisoftheindustriesandoccupationsforwhichthereisexistingdemand.

Missouri’sWIOApartnershipincludesafunctionalbureauofstategovernmenthousedwithintheDepartmentofEconomicDevelopmentcalledtheMissouriEconomicResearchInformationCenter(MERIC).ThefollowingeconomicanalysishasbeenpreparedtoexplaintheSouthwestWorkforceDevelopmentArea’seconomicconditionsandtrends,aswellastoexplainpertinentindustrialandoccupationaldemand.Real-TimeLaborMarketAnalysisIn2012MERICbeganusinganewtooltoassesscurrent,orreal-time,demandforoccupationsthroughoutthestate.Thetool,providedbyBurningGlassTechnologies,capturesonlinejobadvertisementsandaggregatesthosejobsbyoccupationandindustrycodes.Whileon-lineadvertisementsdonotrepresentalljobopenings,asotherinformalnetworksarealsoused,itdoesprovideabroadpictureofhiringactivityandservesasonemeasureofcurrentlabordemand.

IndustryJob

PostingsGeneralMedicalandSurgicalHospitals 700RestaurantsandOtherEatingPlaces 562GeneralFreightTrucking 540ComputerSystemsDesignandRelatedServices 426BuildingMaterialandSuppliesDealers. 403DepartmentStores 400InsuranceCarriers 267AnimalSlaughteringandProcessing 205SpecializedFreightTrucking 193BusinessSupportServices 172Source:BurningGlassTechnologies(February1,2015-January31,2016)

TopTenReal-TimeLaborDemandIndustriesbyOnlineJobAds

IndustrialDemand

IndustrydemandanalysisfromFebruary2015throughJanuary2016showedthattheGeneralMedicalandSurgicalHospitalsindustrywasatopjobadvertisement.Restaurants,Trucking,andComputerSystemsDesignalsohadahighnumberofjobadvertisers.

OccupationalDemandJobanalysishighlightsthetoptenoccupationsSouthwestRegionemployersadvertisedforinthepastyear.TruckDriverswereinthegreatestdemand,followedbyRetailSalespersons,RegisteredNurses,andCustomerServiceRepresentatives.SalesRepresentatives,SupervisorsofRetailWorkersandLaborerswerealsoindemand.Real-TimeLaborMarketAnalysisprovidesasnapshotofcurrentlabordemandthatisparticularlyhelpfultocurrentjobseekersinterestedinwhoishiringandforwhatoccupations.MERIChasdevelopedproducts,liketheRealTimeLaborMarketSummary,usingthistool.TheLaborMarketSummaryprovidesbotharegionalandstatewidesnapshotofdatafoundinjobadsandispublishedeveryothermonth.MERICandDWDwillcontinuetoexplorehowthisdatacaninformworkforceandeconomicdevelopmenteffortstomeettheneedsofbusinessesaroundthestate.

OccupationJob

PostingsHeavyandTractor-TrailerTruckDrivers 1,548RetailSalespersons 739RegisteredNurses 559CustomerServiceRepresentatives 462SalesRepresentatives,WholesaleandManufacturing,ExceptTechnicalandScientificProducts 403First-LineSupervisorsofRetailSalesWorkers 387LaborersandFreight,Stock,andMaterialMovers,Hand 299MaintenanceandRepairWorkers,General 270CombinedFoodPreparationandServingWorkers,IncludingFastFood 230First-LineSupervisorsofFoodPreparationandServingWorkers 228Source:BurningGlassTechnologies(February1,2015-January31,2016)

TopTenReal-TimeLaborDemandOccupationsbyOnlineJobAds

2012 2022Title Estimated Projected Numeric PercentManufacturing 22,723 24,675 1,952 8.59%AdministrativeandSupportServices 4,964 6,631 1,667 33.58%AmbulatoryHealthCareServices 4,144 4,950 806 19.45%TruckTransportation 5,671 6,422 751 13.24%SpecialtyTradeContractors 2,368 3,032 664 28.04%FoodServicesandDrinkingPlaces 7,833 8,469 636 8.12%Professional,Scientific,andTechnicalServices 2,914 3,510 596 20.45%FabricatedMetalProductManufacturing 3,165 3,686 521 16.46%EducationalServices 9,205 9,706 501 5.44%Hospitals 6,151 6,646 495 8.05%Source:MERICEmploymentProjections

Employment Change2012-2022

SouthwestRegion2012-2022IndustryProjections

2. EmergingDemandIndustrySectorsandOccupations

Provideananalysisoftheindustriesandoccupationsforwhichdemandisemerging.

IndustryMERICdevelopslong-termemploymentprojectionsbasedonindustrytrendsandstaffingpatternsfortheSouthwestWorkforceDevelopmentregion.Thetablebelowdescribestheindustriesprojectedtohavethemostjobopeningsfrom2012to2022basedonbothgrowthandreplacementneeds.

Forthe2012-2022timeperiod,industriesintheSouthwestRegionwiththelargestprojectednetchangeinemploymentareManufacturing(1,952);AdministrativeandSupportServices(1,667);AmbulatoryHealthCareServices(806);TruckTransportation(751);SpecialtyTradeContractors(664);andFoodServicesandDrinkingPlaces(636).

Industryemploymenttrendsofferinsightontheindustriesthataregrowingovertimeinagivenarea.Between2011and2015,Southwestregionindustrieswiththelargestincreaseinemploymentwere

0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000

EducationalServicesFoodManufacturing

FoodServicesandDrinkingPlacesHospitals

AdministrativeandSupportServicesTruckTransportation

AmbulatoryHealthCareServicesGeneralMerchandiseStores

FabricatedMetalProductManufacturingNursingandResidentialCareFacilities

Professional,Scientific,andTechnicalServicesSocialAssistance

SpecialtyTradeContractorsMerchantWholesalers,DurableGoods

MotorVehicleandPartsDealers

SouthwestRegionIndustryEmploymentTrends

2015Q1

2014Q1

2013Q1

2012Q1

2011Q1

Professional,Scientific,andTechnicalServices(1,559);Hospitals(1,000);SocialAssistance(811);FabricatedMetalProductManufacturing(494);FoodServicesandDrinkingPlaces(454).

Source:USCensusBureau,QWIExplorerApplication(qwiexplorer.ces.census.gov)OccupationsThelong-termoccupationalprojectionsfortheSouthwestRegionshowthatthetopjobopeningsareforTruckDrivers,RetailSalespersonsandCashiers.ThedefinitionofTotalOpeningsisprojectednewgrowthandreplacementneeds.TheTruckDriveroccupation,forexample,showsatotalprojectedemploymentof6,144for2022,only672morethanthe2012estimateof5,472jobs.Thismeansofthe1,547jobopeningsover10years,875arereplacementopeningsduetoturnoverwhileonly672arenew.Totalopeningsareimportanttojobseekerswhilenewjobsindicatewherenewtrainingneedsmaybefound.

2012 2022Estimated Projected Growth Replacement Total

Occupation Employment Employment Openings Openings OpeningsHeavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers 5,472 6,144 672 875 1,547Retail Salespersons 3,880 4,079 199 1,327 1,526Cashiers 3,357 3,401 44 1,451 1,495Combined Food Preparation and Serving Workers 2,692 3,060 368 1,028 1,396Laborers and Freight, Stock, and Material Movers 2,224 2,510 286 689 975Customer Service Representatives 2,013 2,379 366 548 914Waiters and Waitresses 1,650 1,713 63 794 857Registered Nurses 2,675 2,934 259 519 778Office Clerks, General 2,765 2,952 187 581 768Personal Care Aides 1,820 2,363 543 130 673Source: MERIC Employment Projections

Southwest Region Top Ten Long-Term Occupation Projections Sorted by Total Openings

Deleted:

5,392

23,020

52,713

3,715

15,198

5,023

12,376

47,400

33,418

5,901

24,835

57,110

4,082

16,400

5,553

13,532

50,709

36,269

0 250,000

Long-TermTraining

Moderate-TermTraining

Short-TermTraining

PostBachelor'sDegree

Bachelor'sDegree

Associate'sDegree

PostHSbutNoDegree

HighSchoolGraduate

LessThanHighSchool

SouthwestRegionEmployment2012-2022

2022Emp2012Emp

2022Emp2012 Emp

Occupationsexpectedtohave500ormoretotalopeningsovertenyearsincludeTruckDrivers,PersonalCareAides,RetailSalespersons,Cashiers,CombinedFoodPreparationandServingWorkers,ManualLaborersandCustomerServiceRepresentatives.ThePersonalCareAideoccupationisalsoprojectedtogrowfasterthantheoverallregion,nearly30percentintenyears.OtherfastgrowingoccupationsincludeIndustrialMachineryMechanics,MedicalSecretaries,andCustomerServiceRepresentatives.

3. Employers’EmploymentNeedsIdentifythejobskillsnecessarytoobtaincurrentandprojectedemploymentopportunities.Withregardtotheindustrysectorsandoccupations,provideananalysisoftheemploymentneedsofemployers.Describetheknowledge,skills,andabilitiesrequired,includingcredentialsandlicenses.

Long-TermProjections–JobsbyEducationLevelOccupationstypicallyrequiringshort-termOJTareexpectedtoaccountforthelargestportionof2022employmentchangeintheSouthwestRegion.Occupationsrequiringshort-termOJTareprojectedtoexperiencethehighestnumberofincreasedemploymentatover4,397,or8.3percentgrowth.Employmentinoccupationsrequiringmoderate-termOJTisalsoexpectedtogrowbyapproximately1,815or7.9percent.Increasedemploymentisalsoanticipatedforoccupationsrequiringahighschooldiploma.Employmentforthiseducationlevelisprojectedtoincreasebynearly3,309,or7.0percent.Occupationsrequiringpost-highschooltrainingwillincreaseby3,255workers.Asestimatedfortheyear2022,69percentofworkersintheSouthwestregionwillbeemployedinoccupationsthatrequirenoformalpostsecondaryeducation(includesshort-termOJTtoworkexperienceinarelatedoccupation).Workersinoccupationsthatrequirejustabachelor’sdegreewillaccountforover13percentoftotalemploymentin2022.

Occupation

2012Estimated

Employment

2022Projected

EmploymentGrowthOpenings

ReplacementOpenings Total

Now-Typicallyrequiresshort-termon-the-jobtrainingRetail Salespersons 3,880 4,079 199 1,327 1,526Cashiers 3,357 3,401 44 1,451 1,495CombinedFoodPreparationandServingWorkers,IncludingFastFood 2,692 3,060 368 1,028 1,396LaborersandFreight,Stock,andMaterialMovers,Hand 2,224 2,510 286 689 975CustomerServiceRepresentatives 2,013 2,379 366 548 914WaitersandWaitresses 1,650 1,713 63 794 857OfficeClerks,General 2,765 2,952 187 581 768PersonalCareAides 1,820 2,363 543 130 673JanitorsandCleaners,ExceptMaidsandHousekeepingCleaners 1,983 2,275 292 373 665SecretariesandAdministrativeAssistants,ExceptLegal,Medical,andExecutive 2,009 2,225 216 242 458Next-Typicallyrequiresanassociate'sdegreeorlong-termtrainingHeavyandTractor-TrailerTruckDrivers 5,472 6,144 672 875 1,547RegisteredNurses 2,675 2,934 259 519 778NursingAssistants 1,481 1,590 109 282 391First-LineSupervisorsofRetail SalesWorkers 1,637 1,669 32 356 388TeacherAssistants 1,136 1,178 42 258 300MaintenanceandRepairWorkers,General 1,188 1,256 68 228 296First-LineSupervisorsofOfficeandAdministrativeSupportWorkers 821 913 92 195 287First-LineSupervisorsofFoodPreparationandServingWorkers 681 764 83 192 275IndustrialMachineryMechanics 532 646 114 154 268AutomotiveServiceTechniciansandMechanics 786 839 53 199 252Later-Typicallyrequiresbachelor'sdegreeorbeyondGeneralandOperationsManagers 1,835 2,004 169 343 512ElementarySchoolTeachers,ExceptSpecialEducation 1,454 1,586 132 320 452SubstituteTeachers 1,195 1,240 45 204 249AccountantsandAuditors 556 624 68 165 233SecondarySchoolTeachers,ExceptSpecialandCareer/TechnicalEducation 712 730 18 193 211Farmers,Ranchers,andOtherAgriculturalManagers 1,206 1,028 0 195 195MiddleSchoolTeachers,ExceptSpecialandCareer/TechnicalEducation 550 599 49 121 170PhysicalTherapists 296 360 64 73 137Child,Family,andSchoolSocialWorkers 402 432 30 85 115CostEstimators 210 258 48 67 115Source:MERICEmploymentProjections

SouthwestRegionTopTenLong-TermOccupationProjectionsSortedbyTotalOpenings

OccupationsbyEducationLevel

The2012-2022long-termoccupationsprojectionswereusedtoidentifythetoptenoccupationsbasedontotalopeningsandlevelofeducationortrainingneeded.Topoccupationsrequiringshorttomoderate-termtrainingincludeservicesandsupportsectoroccupations.Topnewopeningsrequiringatleastlong-termtrainingorasmuchasanAssociate’sdegreeincludetruckdrivers,nurses,maintenanceworkers,andmechanics.Thetopoccupationsrequiringabachelor’sdegreeorhigherincludeManagement,Education,andSocialWorkoccupations.

C. WorkforceAnalysisDescribethecurrentworkforce,includingindividualswithbarrierstoemployment,asdefinedinsection3ofWIOA1.Thispopulationmustincludeindividualswithdisabilitiesamongothergroups2intheeconomicregionandacrosstheLWDA.

1Individualswithbarrierstoemploymentincludedisplacedhomemakers;low-incomeindividuals;Indians,AlaskaNatives,andNativeHawaiians;individualswithdisabilities,includingyouthwhoareindividualswithdisabilities;olderindividuals;ex-offenders;homelessindividuals,orhomelesschildrenandyouths;youthwhoareinorhaveagedoutofthefostercaresystem;individualswhoareEnglish-languagelearners,individualswhohavelowlevelsofliteracy,andindividualsfacingsubstantialculturalbarriers;farmworkers(asdefinedatsection167(i)ofWIOA

GeographicChangeWhileSt.LouisandKansasCityremainthelargestpopulationcentersinMissouri,themostrecentdecennialcensusshowssomepopulationshiftsawayfromtheurbancore.TheoverallpopulationfortheSouthwestWorkforceDevelopmentAreahasincreasedby24,436persons.DetailsforallcountiesareinTable1.

MinorityPopulationGrowthMissouriexperiencedpopulationincreasesintheBlackandHispanicorLatinominoritygroupsduringthe2000’s.TheSouthwestRegion’sblackpopulationincreasedby1,000persons,accountingfor1.1percentofSouthwestregion’stotalpopulation.Missouri’sBlackpopulationaccountsfor11.6percentoftotalstatepopulation,andnationally,theBlackpopulationaccountsfor12.6percentoftotalU.S.population.TheHispanicorLatinopopulationintheSouthwestWorkforceDevelopmentAreahasalsoincreased.Thisminoritygroupnumbersabout18,700,anincreaseof8,800personssince2000.TheHispanicorLatinopopulationrepresents6.4percentoftheSouthwest’stotalpopulation.Missouri’s2010HispanicorLatinopopulation,incontrast,accountsfor3.5percentofthestate’stotalpopulation;

andTrainingandEmploymentGuidanceLetterNo.35-14);individualswithintwoyearsofexhaustinglifetimeeligibilityundertheTemporaryAssistanceforNeedyFamilies(TANF)program;singleparents(includingsinglepregnantwomen);andlong-termunemployedindividuals.2Veterans,unemployedworkers,andyouth,andothersthattheStatemayidentify.

0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0%

Spanish

AsianandPacificIslandLanguages

OtherIndo-European Languages

OtherLanguages

SouthwestRegionPopulationSpeakingNon-English Languages atHome

nationally,16.3percentoftheU.S.populationisHispanicorLatino.ThefulldatasetsareavailableinTable2:BlackPopulationRatesandTable3:HispanicorLatinoPopulationRatesintheAppendix.

LimitedEnglishProficiency

Accordingtothe2010-2014AmericanCommunitySurvey5-YearEstimates,7.7percent(13,256)oftheSouthwestregion’s18to64populationagecohortspokealanguageotherthanEnglishathome.Themostcommonnon-EnglishlanguagesspokeninSouthwestareahomeswasSpanish(5.2percent);OtherIndo-Europeanlanguages(1.1percent);AsianandPacificIslandlanguages(1.2percent)andOtherLanguages(0.2percent).ThetotalpercentageofthepopulationspeakinglanguagesotherthanEnglishathomeishigherintheSouthwestRegionthaninMissouri.Statewide,however,6.6percentofthepopulation(244,947)spokeanon-Englishlanguageathome.InMissouri,themostcommonnon-EnglishlanguageisSpanish(2.7percent),followedbyOtherIndo-Europeanlanguages(1.9percent),AsianandPacificIslandLanguages(1.4percent)andOtherLanguages(0.5percent).ThepercentageofindividualsspeakinglanguagesotherthanEnglishathomeacrossthenationismuchhigherthanthestateaverage.IntheU.S.,13.6percentofthepopulationspeaksSpanishathome.ResidentsspeakingOtherIndo-EuropeanlanguagesandAsianandPacificIslandlanguagestotal3.7percenteachwhilethosespeakingOtherLanguagesis1percent.

0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0%

Disability

AmbulatoryDifficulty

CognitiveDifficulty

IndependentLivingDifficulty

HearingDifficulty

VisionDifficulty

Self-CareDifficulty

SouthwestRegionPopulationwithaDisability

IndividualswithDisabilities

AccordingtotheAmericanCommunitySurvey2010-2014estimates,14.4percent,or24,738SouthwestArearesidentsage18-64hadadisability.Ambulatorydifficultywasthemostprevalentdisabilitytypeat8.5percentofthepopulation.About5.6percentofthepopulationhadacognitivedifficulty,followedby4.9percentwithindependentlivingdifficulty.Thepercentageofindividualswithdisabilitieswasconsistentwithstatetrends.Statewide,12.4percentofresidentsofthesameagegrouphadadisability.Missourianswithanambulatorydifficultywasthehighestat6.6percent,followedbycognitivedifficulty(5.4percent)andindependentlivingdifficulty(4.4percent).Nationally,10.2percentofthepopulationhadadisability.Individualswithambulatorydifficultytotal5.2percent,while4.3percenthavecognitivedifficultyand3.6percenthaveindependentlivingdifficulty.

Thisincludes:1. EmploymentandUnemployment

ProvideananalysisofcurrentemploymentandunemploymentdataandtrendsintheLWDA.

Duringtherecession,thenumberofMissouriansemployedintheSouthwestregiondecreased,whilethenumberofunemployedincreasedtoahighof9.6percent.Overtime,employershavebecomemoreconfidentinhiringworkers,increasingtotalemploymenttojustover136,859attheendof2015.Theunemploymentratehasdecreasedtoalowof3.5percentinDecember2015,belowtheMissouriunemploymentrateof3.9percentandtheUSat4.8percent.Thesenumbers,queriedfromLocalAreaUnemploymentStatistics(LAUS),includesincludeallemployment,includingself-employedworkers.

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

Jan-09

May-09

Sep-09

Jan-10

May-10

Sep-10

Jan-11

May-11

Sep-11

Jan-12

May-12

Sep-12

Jan-13

May-13

Sep-13

Jan-14

May-14

Sep-14

Jan-15

May-15

Sep-15

UnemploymentRate

SouthwestRegionMOUS

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

160,000

Feb-09

May-09

Aug-09

Nov-09

Feb-10

May-10

Aug-10

Nov-10

Feb-11

May-11

Aug-11

Nov-11

Feb-12

May-12

Aug-12

Nov-12

Feb-13

May-13

Aug-13

Nov-13

Feb-14

May-14

Aug-14

Nov-14

Feb-15

May-15

Aug-15

EmploymentandUnemploymentinSouthwestRegion

Unemployment

Employment

Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics

Evenwiththelowunemploymentratestatewide,Missouristillhaspocketswheretheunemploymentrateishigh.Thebrighternewsisthatunemploymenthasdecreasedineverycountyduringthepastyear.Intheseven-countySouthwestregion,theunemploymentratedecreasedfrom5.01percentinSeptember2014to3.53percentinSeptember2015.NumbersforeachcountyareavailableinTable4oftheAppendix.

2. LaborMarketTrendsProvideananalysisofkeylabor-markettrends,includingacrossexistingindustriesandoccupations.

IndustryEmploymentTrends

Theseven-countySouthwestWorkforceDevelopmentAreagained715workersfrom2009to2014,a0.6percentincrease.TheSouthwest,however,lagsbehindthestatewhichexperienceda2.2percentincrease.RegionalindustrieswiththelargestemploymentgrowthwereProfessional,Scientific,andTechnicalServices(51.6percent),AdministrativeandSupportServices(29.6percent),andFoodManufacturing(19.1percent).Fourindustrieslostemployment:TruckTransportation(-27.7percent),Hospitals(-14percent),NursingandResidentialCareFacilities(-5.6percent),andGeneralMerchandiseStores(-1.3percent).

IndustryWageTrendsTheregionsawoverallwagesincreaseby4.5percent,orover$1,300,lowerthanthestatewidewagegrowthof9.4percent.Wagegrowthwashighestinmanufacturingandsalesindustries.IndustrieswiththehighestwagegrowthduringtheperiodwereProfessional,Scientific,andTechnicalServices(39.5percent),ElectricalEquipment,Appliance,andComponentManufacturing(20.7percent),andMerchantWholesalers,DurableGoods(16.8percent).Threeindustrieshadwagesdecreasebetween2009and2014:TruckTransportation(-6.6percent),EducationalServices(-1.9percent),andHospitals(-0.7percent).

NAICSSector 2009Employment

2014Employment Change Percent

ChangeTotalRegionEmployment 111,054 111,769 715 0.6percent

EducationalServices 10,757 11,277 520 4.8percentFoodManufacturing 8,258 9,837 1,579 19.1percentFoodServicesandDrinkingPlaces 7,388 8,289 901 12.2percentHospitals 7,342 6,313 -1,029 -14percent

TruckTransportation 7,347 5,315 -2,032 -27.7percent

AdministrativeandSupportServices 3,630 4,705 1,075 29.6percentAmbulatoryHealthCareServices 4,041 4,465 424 10.5percentGeneralMerchandiseStores 3,758 3,709 -49 -1.3percentNursingandResidentialCareFacilities 3,579 3,379 -200 -5.6percentProfessional,Scientific,andTechnicalServices 2,199 3,333 1,134 51.6percent

NAICSSector 2009Wages

2014Wages Change Percent

ChangeOverallRegionalAverageWage $31,224 $32,616 $1,392 4.5percent

Hospitals $50,124 $49,788 -$336 -0.7percentProfessional,Scientific,andTechnicalServices $33,096 $46,176 $13,080 39.5percentElectricalEquipment,Appliance,andComponentManufacturing $35,208 $42,480 -$3,792 20.7percent

AmbulatoryHealthCareServices $40,716 $40,920 $204 0.5percentEducationalServices $41,052 $40,284 -$768 -1.9percentFabricatedMetalProductManufacturing $35,052 $39,828 $4,776 13.6percentTruckTransportation $42,288 $39,492 $3,816 -6.6percentTransportationEquipmentManufacturing $33,996 $38,928 $4,932 14.5percentMerchantWholesalers,DurableGoods $32,748 $38,256 $5,508 16.8percent

IndustryClustersAccording to the location quotient indicator,manufacturing is the Southwest Region’smost highlyconcentrated industry group. The location quotient (LQ) indicator describes how concentrated anindustry is in a region in relation to the nation,with 1.00 being the national average. The region’smost concentrated industry is Food Manufacturing (7.08) followed by Electrical EquipmentManufacturing(5.46),AnimalProduction(4.94),andTruckTransportation(4.90).

IndustrydemandisconsistentwithoccupationaljobpostingsseenintheTopTenReal-TimeLaborDemandOccupationsbyJobAdsdatafoundinSectionIV.B.1.Inthistable,thehighestnumberofjobadsisforTruckDrivers.Withaconcentrationofmanufacturers,additionaloccupationssuchasSalesRepresentatives;CustomerService;Laborers;andMaintenanceandRepairareheavilyadvertised.

3. EducationandSkillLevelsoftheWorkforce

Provideananalysisoftheeducationalandskilllevelsoftheworkforce.

Missourihasaworkforceof2,594,137menandwomenwhoarecurrentlyworking.TheSouthwestregionrepresents4.2percentofthatworkforceor108,725workers.Workforceisdefinedaspersons14yearsofageorolderwhoaregainfullyemployed.Thestate’sworkforceisaging.InMissouri,22percentoftheworkforceisage55orolder;similarly,intheSouthwestregion,22percentofitsworkforce(boththemaleandfemalepopulations)is55andolder.TheaverageeducationalattainmentratefortheMissouriworkforce,withahighschooldiplomaorhigher,is88percent;intheSouthwestregion,itis86percent.Statewide,12percentofworkershavenotgraduatedhighschoolwhile14percentoftheSouthwestregion’sworkforcehaslessthanahighschooleducation.

MotorVehicleandPartsDealers $32,544 $37,920 $5,376 16.5percent

NAICSSector 2009LocationQuotient

2013LocationQuotient

FoodManufacturing 6.83 7.08ElectricalEquipment,Appliance,andComponentManufacturing 4.89 5.46

AnimalProduction 5.23 4.94TruckTransportation 5.83 4.90FurnitureandRelatedProductManufacturing 8.28 4.48FabricatedMetalProductManufacturing 2.76 2.47GeneralMerchandiseStores 1.71 1.60BuildingMaterialandGardenEquipmentandSuppliesDealer 1.27 1.39

MotorVehicleandPartsDealers 1.35 1.38Hospitals 1.32 1.26

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

14-21 22-34 35-54 55+

SouthwestRegionWorkforceAgeGroups

Female

Male

14%

37%32%

17%

SouthwestRegionEducationalAttainment

Lessthanhighschool

Highschoolorequivalent,nocollege

SomecollegeorAssociatedegree

Bachelor'sdegreeoradvanceddegree

TopBaselineSkillsNeeded RankCommunicationSkills 1OrganizationalSkills 2CustomerService 3Writing 4ProblemSolving 5

HEALTHCARETopSpecificSkillsNeeded RankPatientCare 1TreatmentPlanning 2Patient/FamilyEducationandInstruction 3NeonatalIntensiveCareUnit(NICU) 4PostAnesthesiaCareUnit(PACU) 5

INFORMATIONTECHNOLGYTopSpecificSkillsNeeded RankSQL 1TechnicalSupport 2SoftwareInstillation 3Repair 4SystemImplementation 5

FINANCETopSpecificSkillsNeeded RankAccounting 1Recruiting 2BusinessDevelopment 3FinancialStatements 4Onboarding 5

ENGINEERINGTopSpecificSkillsNeeded RankComputerAidedDrafting/Design(CAD) 1MechanicalEngineering 2ProcessImprovement 3Robotics 4AutoCAD 5

MANUFACTURING/PRODUCTIONTopSpecificSkillsNeeded RankInspection 1Machinery 2RecordKeeping 3Repair 4Packaging 5Source:BurningGlassTechnologies(February1,2015-January31,2016)

TopSouthwestRegionReal-TimeLaborDemandSkills

4. SkillGapsDescribeapparent“skillgaps.”

Analysisoftheskillsandeducationgapsthatemployershaveidentifiedisanimportantstepindeterminingwhattrainingissuesneedtobeaddressed.Nationalbusinesssurveyspointtoskillsgapsthathavenegativelyimpactedtheeconomy,suchasa2015manufacturingsurveythatindicated6outof10positionsremainunfilledduetotalentshortage,evenwithalargenumberofunemployedmanufacturingworkersavailableforhire3.MERIChasdevelopedtargetindustrycompetencymodels,conductedbusinesssurveys,andrecentlyacquiredareal-timelabormarketskillsdemandtoolthatprovidesvaluableinsightintotheneedsofMissouriemployers.MERICconductedIndustryCompetencyModelanalysisformanyofthestate’stargetedindustrysectors,suchasEnergy,InformationTechnology,Transportation,andLifeSciences.Indoingso,thereportsrevealedthatworkerswillneedtoenhancetheirexistingskillssetstomeetthedemandsofnewandevolvingtechnologiesusedinthesegrowingindustrysectors,andemployersseekagoodskillmixofbothtechnicalandsoftskillsintheirworkers.Interdisciplinaryknowledgeisakeyingredienttosuccess,especiallyinhigh-techsectors.Proficiencyinrulesandregulationswasalsoratedashighlyimportantandnecessaryforworkintoday’scomplexbusinessenvironment.TheIndustryCompetencyModelreportsalsohighlightedissuesrelatedtotheoverallagingoftheworkforce.Theimminentretirementofalargesegmentofworkersacrossthetargetedsectorscouldresultinashortageofthisspecializedlaborpool.Theabilitytoproduceasustainablepipelineofskilledworkerswillbeimportantforthesuccessofthesesectorsandtheeconomyasawhole.EachyearMERICstaffassisttheSt.LouisCommunityCollegetosurveyhundredsofcompaniesintheSt.LouisMSAregardingworkforceissues4.In2015thesurveyfoundthat57percentofbusinessesidentifieda“shortageofworkerswithknowledgeorskills”asthemainbarriertoexpandingemployment,followedby“economicconditions”atadistancesecondof35percent.Thetopshortcomingsofjobapplicantsweremostlysoftskillssuchaspoor

3TheskillsgapinU.S.manufacturing2015andbeyond.DeloitteConsultingandtheManufacturingInstitute,2015.Completereportatwww.themanufacturinginstitute.org4StateoftheSt.LouisWorkforce2015.St.LouisCommunityCollegeWorkforceSolutions,August2015.Availableat:http://www.stlcc.edu/Workforce-Solutions/St-Louis-Workforce/

workethic(#1),lackofcriticalthinking(#2),andlackofcommunicationorinterpersonalskills(#3).Lackofgeneralbusinessorindustryknowledgeroundedoutthetopfour.Theseshortcomingsareconsistentlythetopissuesbusinessidentifyinthissurveyandmirrorthe“softskills”challengethatcanbeseenacrossthecountryinvariousbusinesssurveys.Thisverylargebusinesssurvey,whilelimitedtotheSt.LouisMSA,isagoodproxyfortheissuesotherbusinessesfacethroughoutthestate.Furthermore,theimportanceofsoftskillsrevealedinthesesurveyscanbeseeninonlinejobadsthatconsistentlyranktheseskillsasatopdesireforapplicants.MERICanalyzesthereal-timejobadsforworkforceregions,whichareonerepresentationofjobdemand,versusthesupplyofjobseekersinthestate’sworkforcedevelopmentsystemanddevelopsareporteachyearhighlightingresults5.AnanalysisoflabordemandandsupplyintheSouthwestRegionshowslargegapsinHealthcareandBusinessandSalesoccupations.Forexample,HealthcareandRelatedOccupationjobadsaccountedfor18.3percentofallpostingsbutjust7.3percentofjobseekerswerelookingforemploymentintheseoccupations.Thesegapsrepresentopportunitiesforjobseekers,whocangettraining,toapplyforoccupationsthatareinhigherdemand.Employersindicatethroughjobadvertisementsthebasicandspecializedskillsneededtobesuccessfulintheirbusiness.Whiletheseneededskillsdonotnecessarilypointtogaps,itdoesprovideasnapshotofskilldemandandreinforcessomeofthefindingsfromearliersurveysandcompetencymodelanalysis.MERICresearchersanalyzedover13,636onlinejobadvertisementsfromFebruary1,2015toJanuary31,2016usingatoolfromBurningGlassTechnologies,todeterminewhatskillswereingreatestdemandovertheyear.Whenconsideringalloccupations,commonskillsarelistedthemostinjobadvertisementsandshowthatbasicbusinessfundamentals,communication,organizationandcustomerserviceskillsarethemostcited.Writingskillsandproblemsolvingcompletethelistoftopfivecommonskills.Analysisofspecificoccupationalclustersshowsmoretargetedskillneedsinjobsrelatedtohealthcare,informationtechnology,finance,engineeringandmanufacturing.ManyoftheseoccupationalclustersrelatetotheindustriesMissourihastargetedforeconomicgrowth.Basicskillscoverabroadrangeoftopics,suchasreadingandwriting,appliedmath,logicflows,informationgathering,ethics,etc.,andmainlyrelatetotheeducationaleffortsofprimaryandsecondaryschools,institutionsofhigherlearning,andworkforcetrainingprograms.Fromtheworkers’standpoint,manyoftheseskillsarehopefullygainedthrougheducationandearlyworkopportunitiesasayoungerpersonhoweverevidencefromskillsgapanalysissuggestthisisstillachallenge.Partnershipsbyeducators,businesses,workforceandeconomicdevelopersshouldcontinuetofocuseffortsonthisissueasthesebasicskillsformthefoundationforsuccessful,occupation-specifictrainingtofollow.Specificoccupationalskillsarelearnedthroughlonger-termemploymentinanindustrywhichprovidestrainingorthroughthemoreformaleducationofapprenticeships,communitycolleges,orfour-yearuniversities.Attainingtheseskills,outsideofbusinessexperienceandtraining,presentssomechallengestojobseekers,particularlythosewhohavebeenunemployedforalongtimeperiod,andtoeducationalinstitutions.Jobseekersneedaffordable,flexibletrainingalternatives,especiallyif

5MissouriLaborSupply&DemandAnalysis.MissouriEconomicResearchandInformationCenter,February2015.Availableat:https://www.missourieconomy.org/pdfs/statewide_labor_supply_n_demand_analysis.pdf

thepersonneedstoworkwhilegainingnewskills.Educationprovidersworktokeepupwithindustrytrendsandtechnologywhilealsoneedingtoadapttonew,cost-effectivelearningmethods.Aswithbasicskilldevelopment,stakeholdersinahealthy,growingeconomymustalsopartnertomeettheneedsofbothworkersandbusiness.Missouri’sopportunitiesforlong-termeconomicgrowthwillincreasinglydependonawelleducated,flexibleworkforcethatrespondsquicklytochangingbusinessneeds.Targetedeffortstoprepareworkersstartatayoungage,arehonedthroughhighereducationandworkexperience,andaresustainedbyacultureandabilitytoembracelife-longlearning.Takingbold,andsometimesdifficult,stepstoequipMissouri’sworkforceforsuccesswillbeoneofthestrongesteconomicdevelopmenttoolsastatecanhaveinretainingandattractingtheindustriesofthefuture.

MERIC,theWIOAagencyleadershipandtheSectorStrategyresearchwillstrivetoincorporatereal-timefeedbackfromemployersaboutthecurrentstatusoflabormarketinformationineachregionandforthestate.

Appendix

LaborMarketData

CountyPopulationChange County

PopulationChange County

PopulationChange

Adair 630 Grundy -171 Perry 839Andrew 799 Harrison 107 Pettis 2,798Atchison -745 Henry 275 Phelps 5,331Audrain -324 Hickory 687 Pike 165Barry 1,587 Holt -439 Platte 15,541Barton -139 Howard -68 Polk 4,145Bates 396 Howell 3,162 Pulaski 11,109Benton 1,876 Iron -67 Putnam -244Bollinger 334 Jackson 19,278 Ralls 541Boone 27,188 Jasper 12,718 Randolph 751Buchanan 3,203 Jefferson 20,634 Ray 140Butler 1,927 Johnson 4,337 Reynolds 7Caldwell 455 Knox -230 Ripley 591Callaway 3,566 Laclede 3,058 Saline -386Camden 6,951 Lafayette 421 Schuyler 261CapeGirardeau 6,981 Lawrence 3,430 Scotland -140Carroll -990 Lewis -283 Scott -1,231Carter 324 Lincoln 13,622 Shannon 117Cass 17,386 Linn -993 Shelby -426Cedar 249 Livingston 637 St.Charles 76,602Chariton -607 Macon -196 St.Clair 153Christian 23,137 Madison 426 St.Francois 9,718Clark -277 Maries 273 St.LouisCounty -17,361Clay 37,933 Marion 492 St.LouisCity -28,895Clinton 1,764 McDonald 1,402 Ste.Genevieve 303Cole 4,593 Mercer 28 Stoddard 263Cooper 931 Miller 1,184 Stone 3,544Crawford 1,892 Mississippi 931 Sullivan -505Dade -40 Moniteau 780 Taney 11,972Dallas 1,116 Monroe -471 Texas 3,005Daviess 417 Montgomery 100 Vernon 705DeKalb 1,295 Morgan 1,256 Warren 7,988Dent 730 NewMadrid -804 Washington 1,851Douglas 600 Newton 5,478 Wayne 262Dunklin -1,202 Nodaway 1,458 Webster 5,157Franklin 7,685 Oregon 537 Worth -211Gasconade -120 Osage 816 Wright 860Gentry -123 Ozark 181Greene 34,783 Pemiscot -1,751

TABLE1:MissouriPopulationChange,2000-2010

CountyPercentChange County

PercentChange County

PercentChange

Adair 36 Grundy 40 Perry 127Andrew 4 Harrison 150 Pettis 6Atchison -87 Henry 0 Phelps 69Audrain -11 Hickory 257 Pike -21Barry 174 Holt 33 Platte 105Barton 31 Howard -24 Polk 93Bates 49 Howell 37 Pulaski 21Benton 132 Iron -17 Putnam 200Bollinger 28 Jackson 6 Ralls 1Boone 31 Jasper 46 Randolph -14Buchanan 24 Jefferson 33 Ray -18Butler 6 Johnson 9 Reynolds 29Caldwell 233 Knox 250 Ripley 717Callaway -12 Laclede 75 St.Charles 96Camden 88 Lafayette -1 St.Clair 141CapeGirardeau 47 Lawrence 7 Ste.Genevieve -8Carroll -13 Lewis 22 St.Francois 146Carter 40 Lincoln 45 St.LouisCounty 21Cass 202 Linn 5 St.LouisCity -12Cedar -68 Livingston 8 Saline -4Chariton -42 McDonald 250 Schuyler -50Christian 210 Macon 1 Scotland -70Clark 280 Madison 127 Scott 5Clay 135 Maries -17 Shannon 21Clinton 1 Marion 8 Shelby -52Cole 20 Mercer -14 Stoddard 2Cooper -19 Miller 52 Stone 152Crawford 103 Mississippi 25 Sullivan 240Dade 43 Moniteau 4 Taney 225Dallas 84 Monroe -26 Texas 1,688Daviess 475 Montgomery -19 Vernon -18DeKalb 42 Morgan 34 Warren 30Dent -7 NewMadrid -1 Washington -4Douglas 114 Newton 40 Wayne 73Dunklin 8 Nodaway 92 Webster -9Franklin -3 Oregon 50 Worth 200Gasconade 50 Osage 33 Wright 76Gentry 163 Ozark -21Greene 45 Pemiscot -7

Table2:BlackPopulationGrowthRate,2000-2010

CountyPercentChange County

PercentChange County

PercentChange

Adair 66 Grundy 8 Perry 242Andrew 110 Harrison 58 Pettis 99Atchison 28 Henry 84 Phelps 90Audrain 252 Hickory 34 Pike 12Barry 60 Holt 86 Platte 100Barton 94 Howard 39 Polk 76Bates 54 Howell 55 Pulaski 96Benton 90 Iron 115 Putnam 13Bollinger 44 Jackson 61 Ralls 133Boone 103 Jasper 122 Randolph 46Buchanan 124 Jefferson 70 Ray 64Butler 62 Johnson 14 Reynolds 16Caldwell 113 Knox 31 Ripley 8Callaway 88 Laclede 79 St.Charles 139Camden 193 Lafayette 92 St.Clair 79CapeGirardeau 137 Lawrence 105 Ste.Genevieve 13Carroll 62 Lewis 106 St.Francois 74Carter 44 Lincoln 132 St.LouisCounty 72Cass 120 Linn 86 St.Louiscity 59Cedar 33 Livingston 93 Saline 83Chariton -15 McDonald 27 Schuyler 7Christian 166 Macon 24 Scotland -21Clark -19 Madison 270 Scott 57Clay 99 Maries -27 Shannon 81Clinton 57 Marion 55 Shelby 65Cole 96 Mercer 155 Stoddard 54Cooper 62 Miller 48 Stone 86Crawford 107 Mississippi 79 Sullivan 97Dade 81 Moniteau 35 Taney 159Dallas 77 Monroe 63 Texas 92Daviess 58 Montgomery 83 Vernon 95DeKalb 75 Morgan 127 Warren 205Dent 32 NewMadrid 17 Washington 50Douglas 0 Newton 121 Wayne 115Dunklin 110 Nodaway 95 Webster 53Franklin 106 Oregon 16 Worth 229Gasconade 138 Osage 9 Wright 71Gentry -18 Ozark 42Greene 85 Pemiscot 8

Table3:HispanicorLatinoPopulationGrowthRate,2000-2010

COUNTY

UnemploymentRate

Sept2015

ChangeinUnemploymentRateSept2014-

Sept2015

UnemploymentRate

Sept2015

ChangeinUnemploymentRateSept2014-

Sept2015

UnemploymentRate

Sept2015

ChangeinUnemploymentRateSept2014-

Sept2015ADAIR 4.4 -1.0 GRUNDY 3.8 -0.9 PERRY 3.8 -0.9ANDREW 3.7 -0.8 HARRISON 4.3 -1.0 PETTIS 4.6 -0.7ATCHISON 4.3 -0.1 HENRY 5.1 -0.6 PHELPS 4.4 -1.1AUDRAIN 4.1 -0.9 HICKORY 6.2 -1.0 PIKE 4.0 -1.0BARRY 4.4 -1.2 HOLT 2.8 -1.6 PLATTE 3.8 -1.0BARTON 5.2 -0.4 HOWARD 4.1 -0.7 POLK 5.0 -0.7BATES 5.6 -0.5 HOWELL 6.0 -0.1 PULASKI 5.4 -1.3BENTON 5.9 -0.8 IRON 6.9 -1.3 PUTNAM 3.4 -1.3BOLLINGER 5.0 -0.7 JACKSON 5.5 -1.4 RALLS 3.6 -0.9BOONE 3.1 -0.6 JASPER 3.9 -0.9 RANDOLPH 5.1 -0.9BUCHANAN 4.3 -0.9 JEFFERSON 4.3 -1.1 RAY 4.4 -2.9BUTLER 5.6 -0.5 JOHNSON 4.6 -1.1 REYNOLDS 6.1 -0.9CALDWELL 3.6 -1.4 KNOX 3.3 -0.3 RIPLEY 7.2 0.4CALLAWAY 4.2 -0.8 LACLEDE 6.1 -0.9 ST.CHARLES 3.5 -0.9CAMDEN 5.0 -1.2 LAFAYETTE 4.0 -1.3 ST.CLAIR 6.2 -0.4CAPEGIRARDEAU 4.1 -0.8 LAWRENCE 4.3 -0.7 STE.GENEVIEVE 4.6 -1.2CARROLL 5.1 -1.4 LEWIS 4.4 -0.2 ST.FRANCOIS 5.5 -1.0CARTER 6.3 -0.7 LINCOLN 4.4 -1.1 ST.LOUISCOUNTY 4.3 -1.1CASS 4.3 -1.1 LINN 6.5 -0.9 ST.LOUISCITY 5.7 -1.4CEDAR 4.9 -0.5 LIVINGSTON 3.9 -0.8 SALINE 4.0 -1.0CHARITON 4.3 -0.7 MCDONALD 4.0 -1.0 SCHUYLER 4.4 -1.7CHRISTIAN 3.8 -0.6 MACON 4.5 -0.8 SCOTLAND 3.8 -0.6CLARK 6.6 0.7 MADISON 5.4 -0.2 SCOTT 4.9 -1.2CLAY 4.0 -1.5 MARIES 4.7 -0.8 SHANNON 6.8 -1.0CLINTON 3.9 -1.4 MARION 4.0 -0.7 SHELBY 4.2 -1.1COLE 3.6 -0.9 MERCER 3.8 -0.7 STODDARD 5.6 -1.0COOPER 5.2 -0.1 MILLER 4.8 -0.9 STONE 5.6 -1.0CRAWFORD 5.0 -1.6 MISSISSIPPI 5.2 -1.3 SULLIVAN 5.4 -0.6DADE 4.7 -0.6 MONITEAU 4.4 -0.7 TANEY 5.4 -1.0DALLAS 5.6 -0.8 MONROE 4.5 -1.1 TEXAS 6.0 -0.9DAVIESS 4.0 -1.3 MONTGOMERY 4.5 -1.0 VERNON 4.9 -0.1DEKALB 3.9 -0.7 MORGAN 5.6 -1.4 WARREN 4.2 -1.4DENT 5.2 -0.9 NEWMADRID 5.8 -0.7 WASHINGTON 5.7 -1.5DOUGLAS 7.8 0.7 NEWTON 4.0 -0.8 WAYNE 4.9 -1.2DUNKLIN 6.9 -0.7 NODAWAY 3.8 -1.5 WEBSTER 4.6 -0.7FRANKLIN 4.4 -1.0 OREGON 5.8 -0.6 WORTH 2.5 -1.2GASCONADE 3.7 -0.8 OSAGE 3.5 -0.5 WRIGHT 5.9 -0.3GENTRY 3.9 -0.8 OZARK 6.9 -0.9GREENE 3.9 -0.6 PEMISCOT 8.4 0.2

Table4:UnemploymentRates,September2015andChangeinUnemploymentfromSeptember2014