13
February 05, 2014 Regional SECTOR RESEARCH | SEE PAGE 11 FOR IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS Co. Reg No: 198700034E MICA (P): 099/03/2012 Plantations NEUTRAL (unchanged) Light exposure to the sector Most funds we met in Singapore have little exposure to the sector and most are taking a trading approach to the sector. Interest centered on growth stocks, companies with property development potential, and Indonesia’s weakened Rupiah. Maintain NEUTRAL. BUY Wilmar, First Resources, Bumitama, Astra Agro Lestari, TSH Resources and Ta Ann. SELL IOI Corp, KL Kepong and TH Plantations on lofty valuations. What’s New We met 15 funds over a 2-day marketing trip in Singapore. We gather that most have little exposure to the plantation sector, and largely NEUTRAL to UNDERWEIGHT the sector. Most take a trading oriented approach to the sector unlike the Malaysian funds. Fund managers were surprised to learn that valuations of plantation stocks in Malaysia are relatively higher than regional peers in part due to the growing pool of Shariah funds in Malaysia which is structural in nature. Unlike Indonesian planters, selected Malaysian plantation stocks (like Genting Plantations, Sime Darby, KL Kepong, Sarawak Oil Palms) have property development potential given pockets of strategic estates held. Many agree that Indonesia's plantation stocks are good for a trade as they are a natural hedge against a weakened Rupiah against the US dollar. Earnings for these Indonesian plantation stocks (in Rupiah terms) are expected to be good in the coming quarter. What’s Our View We maintain our MYR2,600/t CPO ASP forecasts for 2014 and 2015 (2013: MYR2,377/t). Amidst a relatively flattish CPO ASP outlook from the current MYR2,516/t, we continue to advocate plantation companies with good organic growth. In this category, our top BUYs are First Resources, Bumitama Agri, TSH Resources and Ta Ann, for their double-digit FFB growth potential over the next 3-5 years. Elsewhere, Astra Agro Lestari provides a good trade on strong earnings turnaround, benefiting from a weakened Indonesian Rupiah. Felda Global remains a TRADING BUY for its earnings turnaround and M&A potential. Analysts Ong Chee Ting, CA (603) 2297 8678 [email protected] Regional CPO price forecast 2013A 2014F MYR/t MYR/t Full year average (FOB) 2,377 2,600 MDEX: 3M CPO price (4 Feb) - 2,529 YTD (4 Feb) CPO ASP - 2,560 Source: Maybank KE, Bloomberg Regional Plantation coverage Company Rec Price TP Upside M’sia listed MYR MYR % Sime Darby Hold 8.87 9.80 10.5 IOI Corp Sell 4.15 3.95 -4.8 KL Kepong Sell 23.02 19.90 -13.6 FGVH Tr Buy 4.27 4.70 10.1 Gent Plant Hold 10.06 10.90 8.3 Swk Oil Palms Hold 6.40 6.30 -1.6 TSH Res Buy 2.77 3.40 22.7 Ta Ann Buy 4.08 4.50 10.3 TH Plant Sell 1.72 1.28 -25.6 Sg listed Wilmar Buy 3.10 4.30 38.7 FR Buy 1.97 2.39 21.6 Bumitama Buy 0.90 1.14 26.7 Indon listed Astra Agro Buy 21350 28000 31.1 Ldn Sumatra UR 1630 NR na Source: Maybank KE; UR = Under Review

Plantations NEUTRAL - I3investor...capped by (i) ample oilseeds in the market, especially rapeseed oil and soybean, and (ii) narrowed palm oil price discount to soyoil. Prices of 3

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Page 1: Plantations NEUTRAL - I3investor...capped by (i) ample oilseeds in the market, especially rapeseed oil and soybean, and (ii) narrowed palm oil price discount to soyoil. Prices of 3

February 05, 2014

Regio

nal

SEC

TO

R R

ESEA

RC

H |

SEE PAGE 11 FOR IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS Co. Reg No: 198700034E MICA (P): 099/03/2012

Plantations NEUTRAL (unchanged)

Light exposure to the sector Most funds we met in Singapore have little exposure to the

sector and most are taking a trading approach to the sector.

Interest centered on growth stocks, companies with property

development potential, and Indonesia’s weakened Rupiah.

Maintain NEUTRAL. BUY Wilmar, First Resources, Bumitama,

Astra Agro Lestari, TSH Resources and Ta Ann. SELL IOI Corp,

KL Kepong and TH Plantations on lofty valuations.

What’s New

We met 15 funds over a 2-day marketing trip in Singapore. We

gather that most have little exposure to the plantation sector, and

largely NEUTRAL to UNDERWEIGHT the sector. Most take a trading

oriented approach to the sector unlike the Malaysian funds.

Fund managers were surprised to learn that valuations of

plantation stocks in Malaysia are relatively higher than regional

peers in part due to the growing pool of Shariah funds in Malaysia

which is structural in nature.

Unlike Indonesian planters, selected Malaysian plantation stocks

(like Genting Plantations, Sime Darby, KL Kepong, Sarawak Oil

Palms) have property development potential given pockets of

strategic estates held.

Many agree that Indonesia's plantation stocks are good for a trade

as they are a natural hedge against a weakened Rupiah against the

US dollar. Earnings for these Indonesian plantation stocks (in

Rupiah terms) are expected to be good in the coming quarter.

What’s Our View

We maintain our MYR2,600/t CPO ASP forecasts for 2014 and 2015

(2013: MYR2,377/t). Amidst a relatively flattish CPO ASP outlook

from the current MYR2,516/t, we continue to advocate plantation

companies with good organic growth. In this category, our top BUYs

are First Resources, Bumitama Agri, TSH Resources and Ta Ann, for

their double-digit FFB growth potential over the next 3-5 years.

Elsewhere, Astra Agro Lestari provides a good trade on strong

earnings turnaround, benefiting from a weakened Indonesian

Rupiah. Felda Global remains a TRADING BUY for its earnings

turnaround and M&A potential.

Analysts

Ong Chee Ting, CA

(603) 2297 8678

[email protected]

Regional CPO price forecast

2013A 2014F

MYR/t MYR/t

Full year average (FOB) 2,377 2,600

MDEX:

3M CPO price (10 Jan) - 2,517

YTD (10 Jan) CPO ASP - 2,553

Source: Maybank KE, Bloomberg

Regional Plantation coverage

Company Rec Price TP Upside

Malaysia listed MYR MYR %

Sime Darby Hold 9.30 9.80 5.4

IOI Corp Sell 4.24 3.95 -6.8

KL Kepong Sell 23.90 19.90 -16.7

FGVH Tr Buy 4.50 4.70 4.4

Gent Plant Hold 10.74 10.90 1.5

Swk Oil Palms Hold 6.95 6.30 -9.4

TSH Res Buy 2.88 3.40 18.1

Ta Ann Buy 4.18 4.50 7.7

TH Plant Sell 1.85 1.28 -30.8

Singapore listed

Wilmar Buy 3.35 4.30 28.4

First Resources Buy 2.07 2.39 15.5

Bumitama Buy 0.95 1.14 20.0

Indonesia listed

Regional CPO price forecast

2013A 2014F

MYR/t MYR/t

Full year average (FOB) 2,377 2,600

MDEX:

3M CPO price (10 Jan) - 2,517

YTD (10 Jan) CPO ASP - 2,553

Source: Maybank KE, Bloomberg

Regional Plantation coverage

Company Rec Price TP Upside

Malaysia listed MYR MYR %

Sime Darby Hold 9.30 9.80 5.4

IOI Corp Sell 4.24 3.95 -6.8

KL Kepong Sell 23.90 19.90 -16.7

FGVH Tr Buy 4.50 4.70 4.4

Gent Plant Hold 10.74 10.90 1.5

Swk Oil Palms Hold 6.95 6.30 -9.4

TSH Res Buy 2.88 3.40 18.1

Ta Ann Buy 4.18 4.50 7.7

TH Plant Sell 1.85 1.28 -30.8

Singapore listed

Wilmar Buy 3.35 4.30 28.4

First Resources Buy 2.07 2.39 15.5

Bumitama Buy 0.95 1.14 20.0

Indonesia listed

Regional CPO price forecast

2013A 2014F

MYR/t MYR/t

Full year average (FOB) 2,377 2,600

MDEX:

3M CPO price (10 Jan) - 2,517

YTD (10 Jan) CPO ASP - 2,553

Source: Maybank KE, Bloomberg

Regional Plantation coverage

Company Rec Price TP Upside

Malaysia listed MYR MYR %

Sime Darby Hold 9.30 9.80 5.4

IOI Corp Sell 4.24 3.95 -6.8

KL Kepong Sell 23.90 19.90 -16.7

FGVH Tr Buy 4.50 4.70 4.4

Gent Plant Hold 10.74 10.90 1.5

Swk Oil Palms Hold 6.95 6.30 -9.4

TSH Res Buy 2.88 3.40 18.1

Ta Ann Buy 4.18 4.50 7.7

TH Plant Sell 1.85 1.28 -30.8

Singapore listed

Wilmar Buy 3.35 4.30 28.4

First Resources Buy 2.07 2.39 15.5

Bumitama Buy 0.95 1.14 20.0

Indonesia listed

Regional CPO price forecast

2013A 2014F

MYR/t MYR/t

Full year average (FOB) 2,377 2,600

MDEX:

3M CPO price (10 Jan) - 2,517

YTD (10 Jan) CPO ASP - 2,553

Source: Maybank KE, Bloomberg

Regional Plantation coverage

Company Rec Price TP Upside

Malaysia listed MYR MYR %

Sime Darby Hold 9.30 9.80 5.4

IOI Corp Sell 4.24 3.95 -6.8

KL Kepong Sell 23.90 19.90 -16.7

FGVH Tr Buy 4.50 4.70 4.4

Gent Plant Hold 10.74 10.90 1.5

Swk Oil Palms Hold 6.95 6.30 -9.4

TSH Res Buy 2.88 3.40 18.1

Ta Ann Buy 4.18 4.50 7.7

TH Plant Sell 1.85 1.28 -30.8

Singapore listed

Wilmar Buy 3.35 4.30 28.4

First Resources Buy 2.07 2.39 15.5

Bumitama Buy 0.95 1.14 20.0

Indonesia listed

Regional CPO price forecast

2013A 2014F

MYR/t MYR/t

Full year average (FOB) 2,377 2,600

MDEX:

3M CPO price (4 Feb) - 2,529

YTD (4 Feb) CPO ASP - 2,560

Source: Maybank KE, Bloomberg

Regional Plantation coverage

Company Rec Price TP Upside

M’sia listed MYR MYR %

Sime Darby Hold 8.87 9.80 10.5

IOI Corp Sell 4.15 3.95 -4.8

KL Kepong Sell 23.02 19.90 -13.6

FGVH Tr

Buy 4.27 4.70 10.1

Gent Plant Hold 10.06 10.90 8.3

Swk Oil Palms Hold 6.40 6.30 -1.6

TSH Res Buy 2.77 3.40 22.7

Ta Ann Buy 4.08 4.50 10.3

TH Plant Sell 1.72 1.28 -25.6

Sg listed

Wilmar Buy 3.10 4.30 38.7

FR Buy 1.97 2.39 21.6

Bumitama Buy 0.90 1.14 26.7

Indon listed

Astra Agro Buy 21350 28000 31.1

Ldn Sumatra UR 1630 NR na

Source: Maybank KE; UR = Under Review

Page 2: Plantations NEUTRAL - I3investor...capped by (i) ample oilseeds in the market, especially rapeseed oil and soybean, and (ii) narrowed palm oil price discount to soyoil. Prices of 3

February 05, 2014 2

Plantations

Sector Summary Table

Company Rating Mkt Cap Shr px TP EPS Growth (%)

PE (x)

Div Yield (%)

EV/EBITDA (x)

P/B (x)

ROE (%)

4 Feb 4 Feb 14F 15F 14F 15F 14F 15F 14F 15F 14F 14F

(USD m) (LCY) (LCY)

Sime Darby Hold 16,175 8.87 9.80 1.1 5.2 16.4 15.5 3.4 3.6 10.0 9.6 1.8 11.1

IOI Corp Sell 7,926 4.15 3.95 (12.8) (9.0) 19.1 21.0 2.6 2.4 13.3 13.8 4.6 17.7

KL Kepong Sell 7,372 23.02 19.90 16.2 3.1 22.5 21.8 2.7 2.7 13.8 13.1 3.2 13.8

FGVH Tr Buy 4,684 4.27 4.70 76.8 12.3 23.4 20.8 2.1 2.4 12.2 11.5 2.3 9.9

Gent Plant’ns Hold 2,296 10.06 10.90 33.1 19.8 20.7 17.3 1.0 1.2 16.8 14.1 1.9 9.4

SOP Hold 843 6.40 6.30 72.6 19.8 15.2 12.7 0.8 0.9 9.3 7.9 2.0 13.9

TSH Resources Buy 747 2.77 3.40 36.9 13.1 17.5 15.5 1.7 1.9 15.2 13.8 2.3 12.4

Ta Ann Buy 455 4.08 4.50 62.3 34.0 13.6 10.2 3.2 4.4 7.5 5.9 1.5 12.1

TH Plant Sell 455 1.72 1.28 84.1 33.4 18.9 14.2 2.6 3.5 9.9 8.1 1.3 6.9

Malaysia Average 19.0 18.3

Wilmar Buy 15,636 3.10 4.30 6.5 11.4 9.9 8.9 2.0 2.3 10.7 9.7 0.8 9.6

Golden Agri * N.R 5,110 0.505 N.R. 43.5 15.2 12.1 10.5 2.5 3.0 8.8 7.7 0.6 4.7

First Resources Buy 2,453 1.97 2.39 0.5 8.7 12.1 11.2 2.4 2.6 8.3 7.4 1.8 14.5

Bumitama Agri Buy 1,247 0.90 1.14 69.0 16.0 13.6 11.7 1.6 1.8 9.4 8.3 2.4 17.7

Indofood Agri * N.R 843 0.76 N.R. 71.0 25.3 12.0 9.6 0.8 0.8 8.0 6.8 0.7 5.3

Singapore Average 10.8 9.6

Astra Agro Buy 2,755 21,350 28,000 11.6 9.1 14.4 13.2 2.8 3.1 8.2 7.4 3.0 20.5

Salim Ivomas Pratama* N.R 927 715 N.R. 136.2 22.6 14.4 11.8 1.5 1.9 6.6 5.8 0.8 5.3

London Sumatera U.R. 911 1,630 N.R. 30.4 8.4 13.2 12.2 2.3 3.0 8.1 7.3 1.6 11.9

Sampoerna Agro * N.R 280 1,805 N.R. 220.3 11.5 11.9 10.7 1.8 2.6 7.0 5.9 1.2 8.5

BW Plant'n * N.R 460 1,255 N.R. 87.5 40.1 15.7 11.2 1.0 1.5 12.0 9.0 2.4 15.9

Indonesia Average 14.2 12.5

Source: Maybank-KE, *bloomberg estimates, UR = Under Review

CPO price update

We updated investors on our CPO price outlook. We reiterated our view

that CPO prices will remain relatively resilient in 1Q14 due to biological

tree stress and as the industry enters into seasonally lower production

months in Feb-Apr. We expect CPO prices to stay firm around MYR2,600/t

and possibly trading up to MYR2,800/t. Nonetheless, CPO prices upside is

capped by (i) ample oilseeds in the market, especially rapeseed oil and

soybean, and (ii) narrowed palm oil price discount to soyoil.

Prices of 3 major vegetable oils and crude oil Narrowed discount of palm oil to soyoil

500

600

700

800

900

1,000

1,100

1,200

1,300

1,400

1,500

1,600

Jan-1

1F

eb-1

1M

ar-

11

Apr-

11

May-

11

Jun-1

1Ju

l-11

Aug-1

1S

ep-1

1O

ct-11

Nov-

11D

ec-

11Ja

n-1

2F

eb-1

2M

ar-

12

Apr-

12

May-

12

Jun-1

2Ju

l-12

Aug-1

2S

ep-1

2O

ct-12

Nov-

12D

ec-

12Ja

n-1

3F

eb-1

3M

ar-

13

Apr-

13

May-

13

Jun-1

3Ju

l-13

Aug-1

3S

ep-1

3O

ct-13

Nov-

13D

ec-

13Ja

n-1

4

USD/tSweet Crude PalmOil 1mthRapeseed oil Soyoil 1mth

-50%

-40%

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

1/4/

2006

6/4/

2006

11/4

/200

6

4/4/

2007

9/4/

2007

2/4/

2008

7/4/

2008

12/4

/200

8

5/4/

2009

10/4

/200

9

3/4/

2010

8/4/

2010

1/4/

2011

6/4/

2011

11/4

/201

1

4/4/

2012

9/4/

2012

2/4/

2013

7/4/

2013

12/4

/201

3

Sources: Bloomberg, Maybank-KE Sources: Bloomberg, Maybank-KE

Page 3: Plantations NEUTRAL - I3investor...capped by (i) ample oilseeds in the market, especially rapeseed oil and soybean, and (ii) narrowed palm oil price discount to soyoil. Prices of 3

February 05, 2014 3

Plantations

Over the past 15 years, CPO has mostly traded at a discount to soyoil

prices, except during a short period of time in 1998. This period coincided

with the strong El Nino occurrence where palm oil supply was severely

affected by extreme dry weather in this region. In 1998, Malaysia (then the

world’s largest producer of palm oil) suffered an 8.3% YoY contraction in

production to 8.32m MT of CPO. This led to CPO taking price leadership for

a short period of time.

Unlike the 1998 episode, we do not think this 2013 biological tree stress is

of similar intensity as 1998. Hence, we do not think CPO prices will trade

at a premium to soyoil prices. Even if it does, it will not be for an

extended period of time as we anticipate a meaningful production

recovery in 2H14. Nonetheless, the narrowed discount could be sustained

in the short term to reflect tightness in palm oil supply.

Soyoil vs Palm Oil (in MYR terms) Soyoil – Palm Oil monthly price spread since 1995

700

1,200

1,700

2,200

2,700

3,200

3,700

4,200

4,700

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

MYR/t Soyoil price CPO price

-400

-200

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

19

95

19

96

19

97

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

MYR/t

Spread

Sources: Bloomberg, Maybank-KE Sources: Bloomberg, Maybank-KE

We caution that CPO prices will weaken to between MYR2,400/t- 2,600/t

towards May-June 2014 period as (i) South American harvests hit the

market, (ii) US soybean planting starts (likely a record high given

weakened corn prices), and (iii) as the market prices in stronger CPO

output in 2H14. The above assumes no weather anomalies although there

are early signs of a possible El Nino developing towards 2H14 but this is

still early days.

Growing pool of Shariah funds in Malaysia to sustain

valuation

Singapore fund managers were surprised to learn that the valuations of

plantation stocks in Malaysia are relatively higher than regional peers in

part due to the growing pool of Shariah funds in Malaysia. Shariah funds

are prohibited from buying conventional banking and sin stocks (like

gaming and alcohol) which preclude ~40% investable stocks on the KLCI.

The growing pool of Shariah funds has in turn benefited the largely Shariah

compliant plantation, tele-communication, and oil & gas stocks which also

explains their relatively higher valuations vis-a-vis regional peers. Hence,

while Malaysian plantation stocks are relatively more expensive than

regional peers, we believe its valuations will remain rich going forward as

the growing pool of Shariah funds in recent years are structural in nature.

Page 4: Plantations NEUTRAL - I3investor...capped by (i) ample oilseeds in the market, especially rapeseed oil and soybean, and (ii) narrowed palm oil price discount to soyoil. Prices of 3

February 05, 2014 4

Plantations

KLPlantation Index vs CPO price (absolute performance) KL Plantation Index vs CPO price (relative performance)

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

10000

Jan-

05

Jul-0

5

Jan-

06

Jul-0

6

Jan-

07

Jul-0

7

Jan-

08

Jul-0

8

Jan-

09

Jul-0

9

Jan-

10

Jul-1

0

Jan-

11

Jul-1

1

Jan-

12

Jul-1

2

Jan-

13

Jul-1

3

Jan-

14

MY

R p

er

ton

ne

Ind

ex

KL Plantation Index CPO Price

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

Ja

n-0

5A

pr-

05

Ju

l-0

5O

ct-

05

Ja

n-0

6A

pr-

06

Ju

l-0

6O

ct-

06

Ja

n-0

7A

pr-

07

Ju

l-0

7O

ct-

07

Ja

n-0

8A

pr-

08

Ju

l-0

8O

ct-

08

Ja

n-0

9A

pr-

09

Ju

l-0

9O

ct-

09

Ja

n-1

0A

pr-

10

Ju

l-1

0O

ct-

10

Ja

n-1

1A

pr-

11

Ju

l-1

1O

ct-

11

Ja

n-1

2A

pr-

12

Ju

l-1

2O

ct-

12

Ja

n-1

3A

pr-

13

Ju

l-1

3O

ct-

13

Ja

n-1

4

%

KL Plantation Index CPO Price

Sources: Bloomberg, Maybank-KE Sources: Bloomberg, Maybank-KE

Property development potential lifts valuations for selected

Malaysian plantation stocks

Unlike Indonesian planters, selected Malaysian plantation stocks have a

property angle to them. Some of these plantation land, mainly those

located in Peninsular Malaysia, have been held for more than 20 years and

are prime for property development.

Genting Plantations, KL Kepong, and Sime Darby have strategic landbanks

in the Klang Valley and Iskandar Malaysia (Johor) which are prime for

property development. In Miri (Sarawak), Sarawak Oil Palms is about to

embark on a new journey into property development to unlock the value of

its plantation estates. Miri is a growing oil & gas town in East Malaysia.

Unfortunately, the recent demerger of IOI Corp’s property division into a

separate listed vehicle under IOI Properties Group (IOIPG MK, Not Rated)

means the latter now holds the prime land bank for current and future

property development potential. This has dampened the property appeal

of IOI Corp, which is now a sister company to IOI Properties Group.

Weakened Indonesia Rupiah benefits the plantation stocks

Many agree that Indonesia's plantation stocks are good for a trade as they

are a natural hedge against a weakened Rupiah against the US dollar.

Earnings for Indonesian plantation stocks (in Rupiah terms) are expected to

recover strongly in the upcoming quarterly results. In Indonesia, domestic

CPO prices were up by +50% in 2013 compared to 15% in Malaysia.

Page 5: Plantations NEUTRAL - I3investor...capped by (i) ample oilseeds in the market, especially rapeseed oil and soybean, and (ii) narrowed palm oil price discount to soyoil. Prices of 3

February 05, 2014 5

Plantations

A higher palm oil price in Rupiah term recorded since 4Q13

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

10000

11000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

Apr

-12

May

-12

Jun-

12

Jul-1

2

Aug

-12

Sep

-12

Oct

-12

Nov

-12

Dec

-12

Jan-

13

Feb-

13

Mar

-13

Apr

-13

May

-13

Jun-

13

Jul-1

3

Aug

-13

Sep

-13

Oct

-13

Nov

-13

Dec

-13

Jan-

14

Rp/kgMYR/tMalaysia CPO price (MYR/t)

Indonesia CPO price (Rp/kg)

Sources: Bloomberg, Maybank KE

Valuation and Recommendations

Go for growth. Companies with young tree age profiles are expected to

grow the fastest and outperform their peers in the long run. In this space,

Bumitama Agri leads the pack with its young tree age profile of ~5.5 years

old, followed by Ta Ann (~6-yrs), TSH (~7-yrs), Sarawak Oil Palms (SOP,

~8.5-yrs), and TH Plant (THP, ~9-yrs). Bumitama Agri (20.8% 3-year 2012-

15 FFB production CAGR), Ta Ann (19.3%) and TSH (18.8%) are projected to

have the highest growth, followed by SOP (12%), THP (11.5%), FR (10%),

and Genting Plant (GENP, 9.2%).

Average age profile of companies vs FFB yield (t/ha) in

2012

3-year FFB production CAGR for companies under our

coverage

Sime

IOI

KLK FGVH

GenP

THP

TSH

SOP

Ta Ann

Wilmar

GAR FR

IFAR

KAGR

BAL

AALI

LSIP

SIMP

BWPT

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25Average age (yrs)

FFB Yield (t/ha)

20.8%

19.4%

19.3%

12.0%

11.5%

10.0%

9.2%

6.7%

6.2%

6.0%

3.8%

2.4%

1.2%

0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0%

Bumitama Agri

TSH Resources

Ta Ann Holdings

Sarawak Oil Palms

TH Plantations

First Resources

Genting Plantations

London Sumatra

Astra Agro Lestari

Kuala Lumpur Kepong

IOI Corporation

Felda Global

Sime Darby

FFB growth (3-year CAGR)

Sources: Bloomberg, Maybank-KE Sources: Bloomberg, Maybank-KE

Page 6: Plantations NEUTRAL - I3investor...capped by (i) ample oilseeds in the market, especially rapeseed oil and soybean, and (ii) narrowed palm oil price discount to soyoil. Prices of 3

February 05, 2014 6

Plantations

Top BUYs in the region: First Resources, Bumitama Agri, TSH Resources,

Ta Ann and Felda Global (Trading Buy). We prefer small- to mid-cap

plantation plays for 1Q14 on significant earnings turnaround leveraging on

higher CPO ASPs YoY and their relatively cheaper valuations vis-à-vis large

caps. Companies with good long-term growth proposition given their

younger age tree profiles like First Resources, Bumitama Agri, TSH

Reosurces and Ta Ann are our top picks. For large caps, Felda Global is a

Trading Buy, for we expect it to post a significant turnaround in core

earnings given its relatively higher cost base and for M&A potential.

Top SELLs in the region: IOI Corp, KL Kepong and TH Plant. Our SELL calls

are mainly premised on the lofty valuations of the stocks which trade at

above 20x 2014 PER, and lack of short-term catalysts to boost stock price

performance.

Key stock briefs

Risks to our view

Upside risks: (i) weather anomalies (or recurrence of a strong El Nino) at

major producing countries remain the biggest threat on supply, (ii) strict

and successful implementation of Indonesia’s ambitious biodiesel mandate.

Downside risks: (i) lower crude oil prices will soften biofuel appeal and

lead to lower vegetable oil (including CPO) prices; (ii) an unexpected steep

slowdown in global growth (especially China and India) impacting demand

for palm oil, (iii) changes in government policies, and (iv) non-

governmental organisational (NGO) activism which pose serious threats to

demand.

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Plantations

Big Cap

Sime Darby (SIME MK)

HOLD

Current price: MYR8.97

Target price: MYR9.80

Sime Darby is a diversified conglomerate, with six core businesses (ranked by EBIT contributions in FY6/13) – plantations (43%), heavy equipment (28%), motors (15%), property (11%), energy & utilities (5%) and healthcare (<1%). It operates in over 20 countries with a strong presence in the Asia-Pacific region.

Largest property landowner in Malaysia with ~16,000 acres for development in Peninsular Malaysia. Medium term catalysts – potential spin off of some key divisions to unlock value.

Planning landbank expansion in Africa (220,000 ha) to ensure sustainability of plantation earnings growth, one of its key earnings driver.

Industrials and Motors would fortify earnings growth, capitalizing on Asia’s rising affluence.

Valuation: Our MYR9.80 TP is based on 18x 2014 PER (based on CPO ASP assumption of MYR2,600/t for 2014-15).

IOI Corporation (IOI MK)

SELL

Current price: MYR4.15

Target price: MYR3.95

Post the de-merger of its property development division, IOI Corp will be a pure integrated plantation player with ~173k ha of planted oil palm estates.

Given IOI Corp’s relatively mature age profile of ~12years, we expect tepid 3.8% 2013-16 CAGR in FFB output.

The remaining plantation land bank post the demerger does not have any property development potential in the near term to back its steep valuation.

Valuation is steep at ~21x FY15 PER (2SD above its 3-year historical mean PER of 20x) and MYR130k EV per planted hectare (vs the sector’s MYR66k). SELL with a TP of MYR3.95 on 20x 2015 PER (based on CPO ASP assumption of MYR2,600/t for 2014-15).

KL Kepong (KLK MK)

SELL

Current price: MYR23.02

Target price: MYR19.90

A diversified group with upstream and downstream oil palm plantation operations. Its extensive oleochemical operations are diversified across Malaysia, Europe and China. It has a small property development division.

With an average tree age profile of ~10-years, we anticipate 6.0% FY13-16 CAGR in FFB output.

KLK targets new planting of 5k – 8k ha each year in Indonesia backed by its remaining plantable reserves of 12,000 ha. This excludes recently acquired 44k ha of land in Papua New Guinea, suitable for future oil palm planting.

Valuation is stretched, trading at ~22x FY15 PER. Maintain SELL with MYR19.90 TP on 19x FY15 PER (based on CPO ASP assumption of MYR2,600/t for 2014-15).

Felda Global (FGV MK)

Trading BUY

Current price: MYR4.27

Target price: MYR4.70

FGV is an integrated global agricultural player focused on three primary commodities – palm oil, rubber and sugar. It is the world’s 3rd largest listed oil palm plantation operator by planted area. It has recently completed the acquisition of remaining 51% stake in FHB (previously an associate company) that undertakes the group’s midstream and downstream related businesses.

It is Malaysia’s leading refined sugar producer via 51%-subsidiary MSM Malaysia with ~57% market share by production volume in 2011.

Over 75% of FGVH’s FY12 pretax profit is derived from its palm oil division, followed by its sugar division at ~20%.

Armed with ~MYR2b cash pile, FGVH continues to be on the lookout for M&A opportunities – its key catalysts. It can gear up for future acquisitions if necessary.

Valuation: Our MYR4.70 TP is based on SOP (based on CPO ASP assumption of MYR2,600/t for 2014-15).

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Big Cap (continued)

Genting Plantations (GENP MK)

HOLD

Current price: MYR10.06

Target price: MYR10.90

Pure upstream plantation player and 5th largest listed Malaysian plantation company in terms of planted oil palm estates of 113,000 ha and another ~93,000 ha unplanted land rights in Indonesia. With average age of ~9years (44% immature), we expect 9.2% 3-year 2012-15 FFB CAGR.

GENP owns ~43,000 acres of freehold plantation estates in Peninsular Malaysia since 1980s (which are still kept at historical BV of <MYR1psf). The jewel among its land bank is over 7,000 acres of land in Iskandar where the Johor Premium Outlet is located. Another prime land is its 1,000 acres in Sepang, of which 430 acres is located next to the Sepang F1 Circuit and near KL International Airport.

Valuation: Our MYR10.90 TP is based on SOP (based on CPO ASP assumption of MYR2,600/t for 2014-15).

First Resources (FR SP)

BUY

Current price: SGD1.97

Target price: SGD2.39

One of the region’s most cost-efficient producers with a sizable planted nucleus oil palm estates of 126k ha.

Given FR’s young age profile of ~8years, we expect 10% 2012-15 CAGR in FFB output.

Healthy net gearing of <15% to embark on growth, backed by plantable reserves of ~100k ha. Its new planting target is 15k ha p.a (including plasma).

FR has good long term growth proposition.

Valuation: Our SGD2.39 TP is based on 15x 2014 PER (based on CPO ASP assumption of MYR2,600/t for 2014-15).

Astra Agro Lestari (AALI IJ)

BUY

Current price: IDR21,350

Target price: IDR28,000

AALI provides exposure to the palm oil sector, which benefits from the bottoming-out CPO price, low production costs and weaker rupiah.

The 43k ha of AALI’s palm oil crops planted in 2006-2008 is entering prime maturity age, providing support to volume and allowing for a more aggressive replanting program of its older palm oil crops. The new crops are expected to carry a higher yield vs older crops due to higher tree density and better clones of palm trees.

Earnings sensitivity to palm oil price is high, with a 10% increase in the selling price translating into a 25% increase in earnings.

Valuation: BUY with a TP of IDR28,000 based on EV/ha of USD16,500.

Small & Mid Cap

Sarawak Oil Palms (SOP MK)

HOLD

Current price: MYR6.40

Target price: MYR6.30

Pure Sarawak planter with a refinery, with one of the top 10 largest planted areas among Malaysian listed plantation companies.

Relatively young oil palm trees of average 8.5 years. 29% immature estates would deliver a 12% 2012-15 CAGR in FFB production.

Has home ground advantage in securing more land in Sarawak.

Medium term catalyst: ~5,000 acres for property development in Miri. Starts in 2014.

Under-researched. Fundamentals intact for long-term investors. Currently trades at 13.8x 2015 PER and decent EV/planted ha of MYR45,000.

Valuation: Our MYR6.30 TP is based on 15x 2014 PER (based on CPO ASP assumption of MYR2,600/t for 2014-15).

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Plantations

Small & Mid Cap (continued)

TSH Resources (TSH MK)

BUY

Current price: MYR2.77

Target price: MYR3.40

Essentially an upstream oil palm plantation player as its key earnings driver. Other businesses include cocoa and wood products manufacturing.

Bolstered by its young average tree age profile of 7 years, FFB production is expected to grow at a 3-year CAGR of 19.4%. TSH also has vast unplanted land of 92,335ha that would provide sustainable long term production growth.

Resilient earnings: TSH’s robust production growth and its refinery JV will cushion its earnings against fluctuations in CPO price.

Valuation: Our MYR3.40 TP is based on 19x 2014 PER (based on CPO ASP assumption of MYR2,600/t for 2014-15), translating to an undemanding PEG of 0.7x.

Ta Ann (TAH MK)

BUY

Current price: MYR4.08

Target price: MYR4.50

Its upstream plantation in Sarawak would be its main key earnings driver in the medium term. Other businesses include logging and reforestation concessions in Sarawak, and plywood manufacturing.

Young average tree age profile of 6 years with expected strong 3-year forward 17% CAGR in FFB growth output; backed by 23% immature estates.

Positive catalysts: (i) turnaround of its plywood division and (ii) Japan reconstruction accelerates and boost plywood demand.

Under-appreciated. ~10x 2015 PER and EV/planted hectare at ~MYR31,000.

Valuation: Our MYR4.50 TP is based on 15x 2014 PER (based on CPO ASP assumption of MYR2,600/t for 2014-15).

TH Plantations (THP MK)

SELL

Current price: MYR1.72

Target price: MYR1.28

THP’s aggressive landbank acquisitions in 2012 (albeit at lofty prices) have raised its profile as one of Malaysia’s top 10 largest listed plantation groups in terms of planted acreage (66,890 ha planted).

However, THP would only be able to reap positive gains from the acquisitions in 3-5 years when the young oil palm estates mature.

Its young estates are relatively lower yielding, and thus would have high cost of production pert CPO tonne. In addition, THP would need to incur substantial interest cost for borrowings incurred to acquire the estates and higher amortization cost.

Valuation is lofty at ~20x 2014 PER. Our MYR1.28 TP is based on 14x 2014 PER (based on CPO ASP assumption of MYR2,600/t for 2014-15).

Bumitama Agri (BAL SP)

BUY

Current price: SGD0.90

Target price: SGD1.14

One of the fastest growing plantation companies in our coverage universe, having planted an average of ~9,700 ha of nucleus area p.a over the past 9 years.

Sizeable nucleus planted area of 101k ha with young oil palm trees of ~6 years old and robust growth ~21% 2012-15 CAGR in FFB output.

With plantable reserves of ~60,000 ha, BAL targets 15k ha of new planting each year.

Valuation: Our SGD1.14 TP is based on 16x 2014 PER (based on CPO ASP assumption of MYR2,600/t for 2014-15).

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February 05, 2014 10

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Research Offices

REGIONAL

WONG Chew Hann, CA

Regional Head of Institutional Research

(603) 2297 8686 [email protected]

ONG Seng Yeow

Regional Head of Retail Research

(65) 6432 1453 [email protected]

Alexander GARTHOFF

Institutional Product Manager

(852) 2268 0638 [email protected]

ECONOMICS

Suhaimi ILIAS

Chief Economist

Singapore | Malaysia

(603) 2297 8682 [email protected]

Luz LORENZO

Philippines

(63) 2 849 8836 [email protected]

Tim LEELAHAPHAN

Thailand (662) 658 1420 [email protected]

JUNIMAN

Chief Economist, BII

Indonesia

(62) 21 29228888 ext 29682 [email protected]

Josua PARDEDE

Economist / Industry Analyst, BII

Indonesia

(62) 21 29228888 ext 29695 [email protected]

MALAYSIA

WONG Chew Hann, CA Head of Research (603) 2297 8686 [email protected] • Strategy • Construction & Infrastructure

Desmond CH’NG, ACA (603) 2297 8680 [email protected] • Banking & Finance

LIAW Thong Jung (603) 2297 8688 [email protected] • Oil & Gas - Regional • Shipping

ONG Chee Ting, CA (603) 2297 8678 [email protected] • Plantations - Regional

Mohshin AZIZ (603) 2297 8692 [email protected] • Aviation - Regional • Petrochem

YIN Shao Yang, CPA (603) 2297 8916 [email protected] • Gaming – Regional • Media

TAN Chi Wei, CFA (603) 2297 8690 [email protected] • Power • Telcos

WONG Wei Sum, CFA (603) 2297 8679 [email protected] • Property & REITs

LEE Yen Ling (603) 2297 8691 [email protected] • Building Materials • Glove Producers

CHAI Li Shin (603) 2297 8684 [email protected] • Plantation • Construction & Infrastructure

KANG Chun Ee (603) 2297 8675 [email protected] • Consumer

Ivan YAP (603) 2297 8612 [email protected] • Automotive

LEE Cheng Hooi Regional Chartist (603) 2297 8694 [email protected]

Tee Sze Chiah Head of Retail Research (603) 2297 6858 [email protected]

HONG KONG / CHINA

Howard WONG Head of Research (852) 2268 0648 [email protected] • Oil & Gas - Regional

Alexander LATZER (852) 2268 0647 [email protected] • Metals & Mining - Regional

Alison FOK (852) 2268 0630 [email protected] • Consumer

Jacqueline KO, CFA (852) 2268 0633 [email protected] • Consumer

Karen KWAN (852) 2268 0640 [email protected] • Property & REITs

Osbert TANG, CFA (852) 21 5096 8370 [email protected] • Transport & Industrials

Philip TSE, CFA FRM (852) 2268 0643 [email protected] • Property & REITs

Ricky WK NG, CFA (852) 2268 0689 [email protected] • Utilities & Renewable Energy

Simon QIAN, CFA (852) 2268 0634 [email protected] • Telecom & Internet

Steven ST CHAN (852) 2268 0645 [email protected] • Banking & Financials

Warren LAU (852) 2268 0644 [email protected] • Technology – Regional

William YANG (852) 2268 0675 [email protected] • Technology – Regional

INDIA

Jigar SHAH Head of Research

(91) 22 6623 2601

[email protected]

• Oil & Gas • Automobile • Cement

Anubhav GUPTA

(91) 22 6623 2605

[email protected]

• Metal & Mining • Capital Goods • Property

Urmil SHAH

(91) 22 6623 2606 [email protected]

• Technology • Media

SINGAPORE

NG Wee Siang Head of Research (65) 6432 1467 [email protected] • Banking & Finance

Gregory YAP (65) 6432 1450 [email protected] • SMID Caps – Regional • Technology & Manufacturing • Telcos

Wilson LIEW (65) 6432 1454 [email protected] • Property Developers

ONG Kian Lin (65) 6432 1470 [email protected] • S-REITs

James KOH (65) 6432 1431 [email protected] • Consumer - Regional

YEAK Chee Keong, CFA (65) 6432 1460 [email protected] • Offshore & Marine

Derrick HENG (65) 6432 1446 [email protected] • Transport (Land, Shipping & Aviation)

WEI Bin (65) 6432 1455 [email protected] • Commodity • Logistics • S-chips

John CHEONG (65) 6432 1461 [email protected] • Small & Mid Caps • Healthcare

INDONESIA

Wilianto IE Head of Research (62) 21 2557 1125 [email protected] • Strategy

Rahmi MARINA (62) 21 2557 1128 [email protected] • Banking & Finance

Aurellia SETIABUDI (62) 21 2953 0785 [email protected] • Property

Anthony YUNUS (62) 21 2557 1136 [email protected] • Consumer • Poultry

Isnaputra ISKANDAR (62) 21 2557 1129 [email protected] • Metals & Mining • Cement

Pandu ANUGRAH (62) 21 2557 1137 [email protected] • Infrastructure • Construction • Transport

Janni ASMAN (62) 21 2953 0784 [email protected] • Cigarette • Healthcare • Retail

Lucky ARIESANDI, CFA (62) 21 2557 1127 [email protected] • Telcos • Media

PHILIPPINES

Luz LORENZO Head of Research (63) 2 849 8836 [email protected] • Strategy

Laura DY-LIACCO (63) 2 849 8840 [email protected] • Utilities • Conglomerates • Telcos

Lovell SARREAL (63) 2 849 8841 [email protected] • Consumer • Media • Cement

Rommel RODRIGO (63) 2 849 8839 [email protected] • Conglomerates • Property • Gaming • Ports/ Logistics

Katherine TAN (63) 2 849 8843 [email protected] • Banks • Construction

Ramon ADVIENTO (63) 2 849 8845

[email protected] • Mining

THAILAND

Maria LAPIZ Head of Institutional Research Dir (66) 2257 0250 | (66) 2658 6300 ext 1399 [email protected] • Consumer / Materials

Jesada TECHAHUSDIN, CFA (66) 2658 6300 ext 1394 [email protected] • Financial Services

Kittisorn PRUITIPAT, CFA, FRM (66) 2658 6300 ext 1395 [email protected] • Real Estate

Sittichai DUANGRATTANACHAYA (66) 2658 6300 ext 1393 [email protected] • Services Sector

Sukit UDOMSIRIKUL Head of Retail Research

(66) 2658 6300 ext 5090 [email protected]

Mayuree CHOWVIKRAN (66) 2658 6300 ext 1440 [email protected] • Strategy

Padon VANNARAT (66) 2658 6300 ext 1450 [email protected] • Strategy

Surachai PRAMUALCHAROENKIT (66) 2658 6300 ext 1470 [email protected] • Auto • Conmat • Contractor • Steel

Suttatip PEERASUB (66) 2658 6300 ext 1430 [email protected] • Media • Commerce

Sutthichai KUMWORACHAI (66) 2658 6300 ext 1400 [email protected] • Energy • Petrochem

Termporn TANTIVIVAT (66) 2658 6300 ext 1520 [email protected] • Property

Woraphon WIROONSRI (66) 2658 6300 ext 1560 [email protected] • Banking & Finance

Jaroonpan WATTANAWONG (66) 2658 6300 ext 1404 [email protected] • Transportation • Small cap

Chatchai JINDARAT (66) 2658 6300 ext 1401 [email protected] • Electronics

VIETNAM

LE Hong Lien, ACCA Head of Institutional Research (84) 844 55 58 88 x 8181 [email protected] • Strategy • Consumer • Diversified • Utilities

THAI Quang Trung, CFA, Deputy Manager, Institutional Research (84) 844 55 58 88 x 8180 [email protected] • Real Estate • Construction • Materials

TRUONG Thanh Hang (84) 844 55 58 88 x 8085 [email protected] • Consumer

Le Nguyen Nhat Chuyen (84) 844 55 58 88 x 8082 [email protected] • Oil & Gas NGUYEN Thi Ngan Tuyen, Head of Retail Research

(84) 8 44 555 888 x 8081 [email protected] • Food & Beverage • Oil&Gas • Banking

NGUYEN Trung Hoa, Dy Head of Retail Research (84) 8 44 555 888 x 8088 [email protected] • Macro • Steel • Real estate

TRINH Thi Ngoc Diep (84) 4 44 555 888 x 8208 [email protected] • Technology • Utilities • Construction

TRUONG Quang Binh (84) 4 44 555 888 x 8087 [email protected] • Rubber plantation • Tyres and Tubes • Oil&Gas

PHAM Nhat Bich (84) 8 44 555 888 x 8083 [email protected] • Consumer • Manufacturing • Fishery

NGUYEN Thi Sony Tra Mi (84) 8 44 555 888 x 8084 [email protected] • Port operation • Pharmaceutical

• Food & Beverage

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APPENDIX I: TERMS FOR PROVISION OF REPORT, DISCLAIMERS AND DISCLOSURES

DISCLAIMERS

This research report is prepared for general circulation and for information purposes only and under no circumstances should it be considered or intended as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy the securities referred to herein. Investors should note that values of such securities, if any, may fluctuate

and that each security’s price or value may rise or fall. Opinions or recommendations contained herein are in form of technical ratings and fundamental ratings. Technical ratings may differ from fundamental ratings as technical valuations apply different methodologies and are purely based on price and volume-related information extracted from the relevant jurisdiction’s stock exchange in the equity analysis. Accordingly, investors’ returns may be less than

the original sum invested. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. This report is not intended to provide personal investment advice and does not take into account the specific investment objectives, the financial situation and the particular needs of persons who may receive or read this report. Investors should therefore seek financial, legal and other advice regarding the appropriateness of investing in any securities or the investment strategies discussed or recommended in this report.

The information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable but such sources have not been independently verified by Maybank

Investment Bank Berhad, its subsidiary and affiliates (collectively, “MKE”) and consequently no representation is made as to the accuracy or completeness of this report by MKE and it should not be relied upon as such. Accordingly, MKE and its officers, directors, associates, connected parties and/or employees (collectively, “Representatives”) shall not be liable for any direct, indirect or consequential losses or damages that may arise from the use or reliance of this report. Any information, opinions or recommendations contained herein are subject to change at any time, without prior notice.

This report may contain forward looking statements which are often but not always identified by the use of words such as “anticipate”, “believe”, “estimate”, “intend”, “plan”, “expect”, “forecast”, “predict” and “project” and statements that an event or result “may”, “will”, “can”, “should”, “could” or “might” occur or be achieved and other similar expressions. Such forward looking statements are based on assumptions made and information currently available to us and are subject to certain risks and uncertainties that could cause the actual results to differ materially from those expressed in any forward looking

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MKE and its officers, directors and employees, including persons involved in the preparation or issuance of this report, may, to the extent permitted by law, from time to time participate or invest in financing transactions with the issuer(s) of the securities mentioned in this report, perform services for or solicit

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This report is prepared for the use of MKE’s clients and may not be reproduced, altered in any way, transmitted to, copied or distributed to any other party in whole or in part in any form or manner without the prior express written consent of MKE and MKE and its Representatives accepts no liability whatsoever for the actions of third parties in this respect.

This report is not directed to or intended for distribution to or use by any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law or regulation. This report is for distribution only

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Malaysia

Opinions or recommendations contained herein are in the form of technical ratings and fundamental ratings. Technical ratings may differ from fundamental ratings as technical valuations apply different methodologies and are purely based on price and volume-related information extracted from Bursa Malaysia Securities Berhad in the equity analysis.

Singapore

This report has been produced as of the date hereof and the information herein may be subject to change. Maybank Kim Eng Research Pte. Ltd. (“Maybank KERPL”) in Singapore has no obligation to update such information for any recipient. For distribution in Singapore, recipients of this report are to contact Maybank KERPL in Singapore in respect of any matters arising from, or in connection with, this report. If the recipient of this report is not an accredited investor, expert investor or institutional investor (as defined under Section 4A of the Singapore Securities and Futures Act), Maybank KERPL shall be legally liable for the contents of this report, with such liability being limited to the extent (if any) as permitted by law.

Thailand

The disclosure of the survey result of the Thai Institute of Directors Association (“IOD”) regarding corporate governance is made pursuant to the policy of the Office of the Securities and Exchange Commission. The survey of the IOD is based on the information of a company listed on the Stock Exchange of Thailand and the market for Alternative Investment disclosed to the public and able to be accessed by a general public investor. The result, therefore, is from the

perspective of a third party. It is not an evaluation of operation and is not based on inside information. The survey result is as of the date appearing in the Corporate Governance Report of Thai Listed Companies. As a result, the survey may be changed after that date. Maybank Kim Eng Securities (Thailand) Public Company Limited (“MBKET”) does not confirm nor certify the accuracy of such survey result.

Except as specifically permitted, no part of this presentation may be reproduced or distributed in any manner without the prior written permission of MBKET. MBKET accepts no liability whatsoever for the actions of third parties in this respect.

US

This research report prepared by MKE is distributed in the United States (“US”) to Major US Institutional Investors (as defined in Rule 15a-6 under the

Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended) only by Maybank Kim Eng Securities USA Inc (“Maybank KESUSA”), a broker-dealer registered in the US (registered under Section 15 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended). All responsibility for the distribution of this report by Maybank KESUSA in the US shall be borne by Maybank KESUSA. All resulting transactions by a US person or entity should be effected through a registered broker-dealer in the US. This report is not directed at you if MKE is prohibited or restricted by any legislation or regulation in any jurisdiction from making it available to you. You

should satisfy yourself before reading it that Maybank KESUSA is permitted to provide research material concerning investments to you under relevant legislation and regulations.

UK

This document is being distributed by Maybank Kim Eng Securities (London) Ltd (“Maybank KESL”) which is authorized and regulated, by the Financial Services Authority and is for Informational Purposes only. This document is not intended for distribution to anyone defined as a Retail Client under the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 within the UK. Any inclusion of a third party link is for the recipients convenience only, and that the firm does not take any

responsibility for its comments or accuracy, and that access to such links is at the individuals own risk. Nothing in this report should be considered as constituting legal, accounting or tax advice, and that for accurate guidance recipients should consult with their own independent tax advisers.

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Disclosure of Interest

Malaysia: MKE and its Representatives may from time to time have positions or be materially interested in the securities referred to herein and may further act as market maker or may have assumed an underwriting commitment or deal with such securities and may also perform or seek to perform investment banking services, advisory and other services for or relating to those companies.

Singapore: As of February 05, 2014, Maybank KERPL and the covering analyst do not have any interest in any companies recommended in this research report.

Thailand: MBKET may have a business relationship with or may possibly be an issuer of derivative warrants on the securities /companies mentioned in the research report. Therefore, Investors should exercise their own judgment before making any investment decisions. MBKET, its associates, directors, connected parties and/or employees may from time to time have interests and/or underwriting commitments in the securities mentioned in this report.

Hong Kong: KESHK may have financial interests in relation to an issuer or a new listing applicant referred to as defined by the requirements under Paragraph

16.5(a) of the Hong Kong Code of Conduct for Persons Licensed by or Registered with the Securities and Futures Commission.

As of February 05, 2014, KESHK and the authoring analyst do not have any interest in any companies recommended in this research report.

MKE may have, within the last three years, served as manager or co-manager of a public offering of securities for, or currently may make a primary market in

issues of, any or all of the entities mentioned in this report or may be providing, or have provided within the previous 12 months, significant advice or investment services in relation to the investment concerned or a related investment and may receive compensation for the services provided from the companies covered in this report.

OTHERS

Analyst Certification of Independence

The views expressed in this research report accurately reflect the analyst’s personal views about any and all of the subject securities or issuers; and no part of the research analyst’s compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in the report.

Reminder

Structured securities are complex instruments, typically involve a high degree of risk and are intended for sale only to sophisticated investors who are capable

of understanding and assuming the risks involved. The market value of any structured security may be affected by changes in economic, financial and political factors (including, but not limited to, spot and forward interest and exchange rates), time to maturity, market conditions and volatility and the credit quality of any issuer or reference issuer. Any investor interested in purchasing a structured product should conduct its own analysis of the product and consult with its own professional advisers as to the risks involved in making such a purchase.

No part of this material may be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without the prior consent of MKE.

Definition of Ratings

Maybank Kim Eng Research uses the following rating system

BUY Return is expected to be above 10% in the next 12 months (excluding dividends)

HOLD Return is expected to be between - 10% to +10% in the next 12 months (excluding dividends)

SELL Return is expected to be below -10% in the next 12 months (excluding dividends)

Applicability of Ratings

The respective analyst maintains a coverage universe of stocks, the list of which may be adjusted according to needs. Investment ratings are only applicable to the stocks which form part of the coverage universe. Reports on companies which are not part of the coverage do not carry investment ratings as we do not actively follow developments in these companies.

DISCLOSURES

Legal Entities Disclosures

Malaysia: This report is issued and distributed in Malaysia by Maybank Investment Bank Berhad (15938-H) which is a Participating Organization of Bursa Malaysia Berhad and a holder of Capital Markets and Services License issued by the Securities Commission in Malaysia. Singapore: This material is issued and distributed in Singapore by Maybank KERPL (Co. Reg No 197201256N) which is regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore. Indonesia: PT Kim Eng

Securities (“PTKES”) (Reg. No. KEP-251/PM/1992) is a member of the Indonesia Stock Exchange and is regulated by the BAPEPAM LK. Thailand: MBKET (Reg. No.0107545000314) is a member of the Stock Exchange of Thailand and is regulated by the Ministry of Finance and the Securities and Exchange Commission. Philippines: Maybank ATRKES (Reg. No.01-2004-00019) is a member of the Philippines Stock Exchange and is regulated by the Securities and Exchange

Commission. Vietnam: Maybank Kim Eng Securities JSC (License Number: 71/UBCK-GP) is licensed under the State Securities Commission of Vietnam.Hong Kong: KESHK (Central Entity No AAD284) is regulated by the Securities and Futures Commission. India: Kim Eng Securities India Private Limited (“KESI”) is a participant of the National Stock Exchange of India Limited (Reg No: INF/INB 231452435) and the Bombay Stock Exchange (Reg. No. INF/INB 011452431) and is regulated by Securities and Exchange Board of India. KESI is also registered with SEBI as Category 1 Merchant Banker (Reg. No. INM 000011708) US: Maybank

KESUSA is a member of/ and is authorized and regulated by the FINRA – Broker ID 27861. UK: Maybank KESL (Reg No 2377538) is authorized and regulated by the Financial Services Authority.

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February 05, 2014 13

Plantations

Malaysia Maybank Investment Bank Berhad

(A Participating Organisation of

Bursa Malaysia Securities Berhad)

33rd Floor, Menara Maybank,

100 Jalan Tun Perak,

50050 Kuala Lumpur

Tel: (603) 2059 1888;

Fax: (603) 2078 4194

Singapore Maybank Kim Eng Securities Pte Ltd

Maybank Kim Eng Research Pte Ltd

9 Temasek Boulevard

#39-00 Suntec Tower 2

Singapore 038989

Tel: (65) 6336 9090

Fax: (65) 6339 6003

London Maybank Kim Eng Securities

(London) Ltd

6/F, 20 St. Dunstan’s Hill

London EC3R 8HY, UK

Tel: (44) 20 7621 9298

Dealers’ Tel: (44) 20 7626 2828

Fax: (44) 20 7283 6674

New York Maybank Kim Eng Securities USA

Inc

777 Third Avenue, 21st Floor

New York, NY 10017, U.S.A.

Tel: (212) 688 8886

Fax: (212) 688 3500

Stockbroking Business:

Level 8, Tower C, Dataran Maybank,

No.1, Jalan Maarof

59000 Kuala Lumpur

Tel: (603) 2297 8888

Fax: (603) 2282 5136

Hong Kong Kim Eng Securities (HK) Ltd

Level 30,

Three Pacific Place,

1 Queen’s Road East,

Hong Kong

Tel: (852) 2268 0800

Fax: (852) 2877 0104

Indonesia PT Maybank Kim Eng Securities

Plaza Bapindo

Citibank Tower 17th Floor

Jl Jend. Sudirman Kav. 54-55

Jakarta 12190, Indonesia

Tel: (62) 21 2557 1188

Fax: (62) 21 2557 1189

India Kim Eng Securities India Pvt Ltd

2nd Floor, The International 16,

Maharishi Karve Road,

Churchgate Station,

Mumbai City - 400 020, India

Tel: (91).22.6623.2600

Fax: (91).22.6623.2604

Philippines Maybank ATR Kim Eng Securities Inc.

17/F, Tower One & Exchange Plaza

Ayala Triangle, Ayala Avenue

Makati City, Philippines 1200

Tel: (63) 2 849 8888

Fax: (63) 2 848 5738

Thailand Maybank Kim Eng Securities

(Thailand) Public Company Limited

999/9 The Offices at Central World,

20th

- 21st Floor,

Rama 1 Road Pathumwan,

Bangkok 10330, Thailand

Tel: (66) 2 658 6817 (sales)

Tel: (66) 2 658 6801 (research)

Vietnam In association with

Maybank Kim Eng Securities JSC

1st Floor, 255 Tran Hung Dao St.

District 1

Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam

Tel : (84) 844 555 888

Fax : (84) 838 38 66 39

Saudi Arabia In association with

Anfaal Capital

Villa 47, Tujjar Jeddah

Prince Mohammed bin Abdulaziz

Street P.O. Box 126575

Jeddah 21352

Tel: (966) 2 6068686

Fax: (966) 26068787

South Asia Sales Trading Kevin FOY

[email protected]

Tel: (65) 6336-5157

US Toll Free: 1-866-406-7447

North Asia Sales Trading Alex TSUN

[email protected]

Tel: (852) 2268 0228

US Toll Free: 1 877 837 7635

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