PNR Air Quality Science PNR Air Quality Science (PAQS)(PAQS)

What we did with our money and What we did with our money and yours…yours…

Regional EmissionsRegional EmissionsFraction of Total Canadian Emissions*

0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5

Atlantic

Quebec

Ontario

PNR

PYR

VOC

SOx

NOx

*CAC 1995: no open sources

Regions of InterestRegions of Interest

O&GPipeline

Mines

EdmontonCalgary

Oil Sands

Power Plants

Smelters

2003 Banff Burns2003 Banff Burns

PM sampling in smoke from prescribed burnsPM sampling in smoke from prescribed burns

Analyzed PM for Elements, Ions and PAHsAnalyzed PM for Elements, Ions and PAHs

Followed up with lab micro-burns controlled forFollowed up with lab micro-burns controlled for FuelFuel Temperature and character of combustionTemperature and character of combustion OxygenOxygen

Low Oxygen, modest fire temp; generated highest Low Oxygen, modest fire temp; generated highest Retene levelsRetene levels

2004 Fire work2004 Fire work

Planned burns disrupted due to weatherPlanned burns disrupted due to weather

Research ongoing for using multi-axis photos.Research ongoing for using multi-axis photos. Assess fire spread ratesAssess fire spread rates Assess plume rise characteristicsAssess plume rise characteristics Assess plume volumeAssess plume volume

Assembled portable package for PMAssembled portable package for PM2.52.5, CO, , CO,

COCO22, Temp and windspeed, Temp and windspeed

Anticipate spring burns (post April)Anticipate spring burns (post April)

PM work in PM work in SaskatchewanSaskatchewan

Funding allocated to study PM ($20K)Funding allocated to study PM ($20K)Contract process underwayContract process underwayEvaluate Boundary Dam area Evaluate Boundary Dam area Use surrounding area for context Use surrounding area for context Northern StatesNorthern States Bratts etc. Bratts etc.

GDAD application to PM also funded.GDAD application to PM also funded. Contract IssuedContract Issued

Prairie PMPrairie PM2.52.5 climatology climatology

Summary report underwaySummary report underway

Seasonal variationsSeasonal variations

Regional characteristicsRegional characteristics

Alberta, Saskatchewan and ManitobaAlberta, Saskatchewan and Manitoba Few stations in SK and MBFew stations in SK and MB

Record too short for trendsRecord too short for trends

Modelling ProjectsModelling Projects

Model Evaluation (aircraft measurements) Source Sector Analysis and Control Scenarios

Sensitivity of O3 Predictions to Uncertainties in Biogenic Emissions (tree speciation)

Episodic Runs

Transboundary Transport – CAN/US, Provincial Sulphur and Nitrogen Budgets Acid Deposition Future Emission Scenarios

Annual Model Runs (2002 & 1999)Annual Model Runs (2002 & 1999)

MM5/CMAQ Annual RunsMM5/CMAQ Annual Runs

36 km grid most of N. 36 km grid most of N. America: America: CompleteComplete

First 12km NWT;First 12km NWT; Complete this weekComplete this week

More 12 km and 4 km More 12 km and 4 km areas plannedareas planned

1999 not started1999 not started

36km

12km

12km

4km

4km

Coarse Domain

Northern Domain

AB-SK Domain

Oil Sands

Edm-Calg

CMAQ Modelling DomainsCMAQ Modelling Domains

Support Projects (Emissions)Support Projects (Emissions)

4km Area and Mobile Emissions4km Area and Mobile Emissions

Agricultural EmissionsAgricultural Emissions

Northern Emissions Northern Emissions

Projected emissions for year 2010Projected emissions for year 2010

Improving Biogenic Emissions by using Improving Biogenic Emissions by using the Canadian National Forest Inventorythe Canadian National Forest Inventory

Prairie2005Prairie2005

Overall aim is address budgets of PM and Overall aim is address budgets of PM and Ozone in PrairiesOzone in PrairiesFocus on fluxes in and out of AlbertaFocus on fluxes in and out of Alberta ModeledModeled MeasuredMeasured

Additional measurements will evaluateAdditional measurements will evaluate Model performanceModel performance Capability of current monitoring networkCapability of current monitoring network Three dimensional nature of AQThree dimensional nature of AQ

Air-Quality ModelsAir-Quality ModelsCHRONOS (MSC):CHRONOS (MSC): 21 km horizontal resolution 21 km horizontal resolution North American forecast of ONorth American forecast of O33, bulk speciated , bulk speciated PMPM2.52.5 and PM and PM1010. 48 hour forecasts.. 48 hour forecasts.

AURAMS (MSC):AURAMS (MSC): 21 km horizontal resolution 21 km horizontal resolution Western Canada forecast of OWestern Canada forecast of O33, size and , size and composition resolved PM and precursors. 48 composition resolved PM and precursors. 48 hour forecasts. Higher resolution runs in post-hour forecasts. Higher resolution runs in post-measurement campaign, non-forecast mode.measurement campaign, non-forecast mode.

CMAQ (US EPA, used by MSC-PNR):CMAQ (US EPA, used by MSC-PNR): Western Western Canada simulations of OCanada simulations of O33, size and composition , size and composition resolved PM and precursors. 36, 12, 4 km runs resolved PM and precursors. 36, 12, 4 km runs (by PNR) in post-measurement campaign, non-(by PNR) in post-measurement campaign, non-forecast mode.forecast mode.

Mobile Platforms (1): Mobile Platforms (1): Ground BasedGround Based

MSC CRUISER:MSC CRUISER: Continuous (< 15 minute) measurements of CO, Continuous (< 15 minute) measurements of CO, NO, NONO, NOyy/NO/NOxx, SO, SO22, O, O33, VOCs, black carbon, PM mass, ultrafine , VOCs, black carbon, PM mass, ultrafine particle counts, 30 – 1000 nm particle size and composition.particle counts, 30 – 1000 nm particle size and composition.

MSC RASCALMSC RASCAL:: scanning lidar: particle scattering/absorption, scanning lidar: particle scattering/absorption, boundary layer structure.boundary layer structure.

AENV MAMLAENV MAML (Mobile Air Monitoring Laboratory):(Mobile Air Monitoring Laboratory): continuous O continuous O33, , CO, NOCO, NOxx, NH, NH33, SO, SO22, H, H22S, THC, PAHs, TSP, PMS, THC, PAHs, TSP, PM1010, PM, PM2.52.5. .

All three also measure meteorology (wind direction and speed, All three also measure meteorology (wind direction and speed, temperature, RH). temperature, RH). MAML and CRUISER overlap some measurements – could be deployed MAML and CRUISER overlap some measurements – could be deployed in different locations at the same time.in different locations at the same time.

Mobile Platforms (2): Aircraft Mobile Platforms (2): Aircraft BasedBased

Cessna 207 + Cessna 188 Tandem FlightsCessna 207 + Cessna 188 Tandem Flights

Two aircraft flying in tandem along same Two aircraft flying in tandem along same trajectory.trajectory.

Cessna 188Cessna 188 “crop-duster”: payload: Hg, O “crop-duster”: payload: Hg, O33, , condensation nucleus counter, particle sizes condensation nucleus counter, particle sizes (CPSP and FFSP), filters, VOC canisters, NO(CPSP and FFSP), filters, VOC canisters, NOxx, , meteorology packagemeteorology packageCessna 207Cessna 207: two payloads, swapped half-way : two payloads, swapped half-way during the study. Meteorology package +…during the study. Meteorology package +…

a)a) Particle size and composition (AMS) + SOParticle size and composition (AMS) + SO22 monitor.monitor.

b)b) Downward LIDAR.Downward LIDAR.

Objectives P2005Objectives P2005

During 04/05During 04/05 Set up the aircraftSet up the aircraft Set up logisticsSet up logistics Finalize science and project planFinalize science and project plan Coordinate PartnersCoordinate Partners

05/0605/06 Conduct the experimentConduct the experiment Collate and distribute dataCollate and distribute data Start writeupStart writeup Determine appropriate follow-upDetermine appropriate follow-up

Regional AQPPRegional AQPP

Operational AQI forecast started in MayOperational AQI forecast started in May

AQPP scientist hired on termAQPP scientist hired on term

Pursuing second scientist for programPursuing second scientist for program

Over the winterOver the winter Establish collection remaining AQ obs in real time: SK Establish collection remaining AQ obs in real time: SK

and MBand MB Generate forest fire smoke guidance toolsGenerate forest fire smoke guidance tools

Beyond: Beyond: Develop alternative forecast methods including Develop alternative forecast methods including

statistical methodsstatistical methods OutreachOutreach

CORE and Acid RainCORE and Acid Rain

30K last year and this for upgrades at 30K last year and this for upgrades at Bratts. Bratts.

Bought Hg calibrator and scale last yearBought Hg calibrator and scale last year

Site upgrades this year and TBDSite upgrades this year and TBD

Lots of acid rain committee workLots of acid rain committee work

Likely some acid applications to annual Likely some acid applications to annual model runs.model runs.

EA work and the NorthEA work and the North

Oil Sands continues to expandOil Sands continues to expand

Upgrader proposed NE of EdmontonUpgrader proposed NE of Edmonton

Diamond Mining continuesDiamond Mining continues

Mackenzie Valley Pipeline loomsMackenzie Valley Pipeline looms

Building monitoring program with RWED.Building monitoring program with RWED. OO33 and NO and NOxx monitors at Inuvik. monitors at Inuvik.