Politics Disadvantage - Immigration - Georgia 2013

8/12/2019 Politics Disadvantage - Immigration - Georgia 2013

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Notes

Hello GDI campers! This summers politics disad is about immigration reform. This is an

issue thats been brought before Congress before but they never got it done and its now

one of the biggest issues on Obamas agenda in his second term.

Just one term to note: CIR = comprehensive immigration reform.


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Neg


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Shells


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1NCImmigration Politics

Immigration reform is passing now with bipartisan support, but differences remain

CNN 5-16[House group agrees on immigration reform, May 16th, 2013,

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2013/05/16/breaking-house-reaches-immigration-agreement/,Chetan]

Washington (CNN) - After months of intense negotiations, a bipartisan U.S. House group has reached an

"agreement in principle" on immigration reform, according to Rep. Mario Diaz-Balart of Florida, one of the GOP members of

the group. A Democratic aide familiar with the discussions confirmed that all the members signed on and told CNN both

Democrats and Republicans "will now run the whole package past their respective leadership and colleagues"

and aim to formally introduce legislation at the beginning of June. Diaz-Balart declined to get into the details of the deal, butsaid, " there's

going to be a lot of differences in a lot of areas," from a bipartisan measure working its way through the Senate. "Filing a realbipartisan billa serious, enforceable commonsense bill is, I think, a huge step. But it's the first step of the process a very important step,"Diaz-Balart told reporters outside the House floor Thursday. The four Republican members of the House group include Diaz-Balart, Rep. RaulLabrador of Idaho, and Rep. John Carter and Rep. Sam Johnson, both of Texas. The four Democrats are Reps. Xavier Becerra and Zoe Lofgren,

both of California, Rep. Luis Gutierrez of Illinois, and Rep. John Yarmuth of Kentucky. Carter told reporters earlier on Thursday that the last

sticking point involved whether the 11 million undocumented immigrantsin the United States would get access to

government health care benefits. It's unclear how the group resolved that issue. Carter also said that becauseRepublican and Democratic negotiators were unable to come to an agreement on a program overseeing guest workers, the group decided to leave

that issue out of the bill. But both planned to offer their proposals separately, likely as amendments to the main legislation. Both sides

differed on how many worker visas should be allowed for construction companies and other industries

relying on low skilled labor workers. House Speaker John Boehner pledged that any immigration bill would move through theappropriate committees in the House before any vote by the full chamber. A key test for the bipartisan deal will come when the House JudiciaryCommittee takes it up, because that panel includes a significant number of conservatives, who have pledged to block any measure that allows a

path to citizenship for undocumented workers. Boehner signaled he wanted the House to have its own version to negotiate a final immigrationbill with the Democratic-led Senate. "I continue to believe that the House needs to deal with this and the House needs to work its will," Boehnersaid on Thursday. The Senate plan is now being considered by the Judiciary Committee.

OCS drilling cooperation with Cuba drains Obamas political capitalmassive backlash

Nerurkar and Sullivan 11[Neelesh Nerurkar - Specialist in Energy Policy and Mark P. Sullivan - Specialist

in Latin American Affairs, Cubas Offshore Oil Development: Background and U.S. Policy Considerations,November 28th, 2011,http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/row/R41522.pdf,Chetan]

On the opposite side of the policy debate, a number of policy groups and members of Congress oppose

engagement with Cuba, including U.S. investment in Cubasoffshore energy development . A legislative

initiativeintroduced in the 111th Congress, H.R. 5620, would have gone further by imposing visa restrictionsand economic sanctions on foreign companiesand their executives who help facilitate the development ofCubas petroleum resources. The bill asserted that offshore drilling by or under the authorization of the Cubangovernment poses a serious economic and environmental threat to the United States because of the damage that anoil spill could cause. Opponents of U.S. support for Cubas offshore oil developmentalso argue that suchinvolvement would provide an economic lifeline to the Cuban government and thus prolong the continuation

of the communist regime. They maintain that if Cuba reaped substantial economic benefits from offshore oil

development, it could reduce societal pressure on Cuba to enact market-oriented economic reforms. Some

who oppose U.S. involvement in Cubas energy development contend that while Cuba might have substantialamounts of oil offshore, it will take years to develop. They maintain that the Cuban government is using theenticement of potential oil profits to break down the U.S. economic embargo on Cuba.78
http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2013/05/16/breaking-house-reaches-immigration-agreement/http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/row/R41522.pdfhttp://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/row/R41522.pdfhttp://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2013/05/16/breaking-house-reaches-immigration-agreement/


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Obamas capital is critical to overcome those differences to negotiate a deal

Washington Post 5-2[Why is immigration going so much better for Obama than the budget, May 2nd, 2013,http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/wp/2013/05/02/why-is-immigration-going-so-much-better-for-obama-than-the-budget/,Chetan]

In his news conference on Tuesday, Obama expressed confidence that Congress would overhaul immigration laws

what he said would be an historic achievement while he was less optimistic about whether he could achieve a grand bargain on the debt.Somehow, the election and public opinion more generally have produced two different outcomes. On immigration, Senate

Republicansled by 2016 presidential contender Sen. Marco Rubio (Fla.) are eager to strike and sell a deal.But they seemcontent to stand their ground on the budget. Why? The question has prompted much discussion about the structural forces shaping Congress

and Obamas limited power to overcome them. The conventional thinking is that on immigration, Republicans are in survival mode:

They recognize they need Hispanics to win national elections. On the other hand, Republicans do not see much to lose in a

budget fight with Obama, and they see much more to lose if they make themselves vulnerable to primary challenges from the right. This

argument is elegant in that it looks at the incentives facing Republicans, and to a large degree it is fair. But its also

an oversimplification. Obamasrole has been more important than it may seem in shaping the political

forces in Washington,but the underlying dynamics favoring an immigration dealand auguring against a budget

agreement are even stronger than many recognize.In asking why Republicans seem responsive to public opinion on immigration but

impervious on the budget, consider the following chart: Itsextremely unlikely that Republicans would be considering an

immigration deal in the absence of Obamasaggressive pursuit of an overhaul . In words and action, Obama

forced Republicans to take a position on the issue. He also created space for more voters to support apathway to citizenship by being quite tough on illegal immigrants facing deportationoften to the displeasure of theHispanic community. Republicans, including presidential candidate Mitt Romney, staked out a far different position, opposing any pathway tocitizenship. Republicans were savaged on Election Day: exit polling showed Obama winning Hispanics by 44 percentage points.

CIR spurs economic growth --- it produces jobs, tax revenue and increases wages.

Center for American Progress, 1/14/2010(How Immigration Reform Would Help the Economy, p.http://www.americanprogress.org/issues/immigration/news/2010/01/14/7130/how-immigration-reform-would-help-the-economy/)

A new report, Raising the Floor for American Workers: The Economic Benefits of Comprehensive

Immigration Reform, byDr. Ral Hinojosa-Ojeda, finds that c omprehensive i mmigration reform that includes a

legalization program for unauthorized immigrants and enables a future flow of legal workers would result in a large economic

benefita cumulative $1.5 trillion in added U.S. gross domestic product over 10 years. In stark contrast, a deportation- only policy wouldresult in a loss of $2.6 trillion in GDP over 10 years. Hinojosa uses a computable general equilibrium model based on the historical experience of

the 1986 legalization program, and finds that: C omprehensive i mmigration reform that includes a legalization program for unauthorized

immigrants would stimulate the U.S. economy. Immigration reform would increase U.S. GDP by at least 0.84

percent. This would translate intoat least a $1.5 trillion cumulative increase in GDPover 10 years, which includes

approximately $1.2 trillion in consumption and $256 billion in investment. The benefits of additional GDP growth would be

spread broadly throughout the U.S. economy , but immigrant-heavy sectors such as textiles, electronic equipment, and

construction would see particularly large increases. The higher earning power of newly legalized workers would mean

increased tax revenues of $4.5 billion to $5.4 billionin the first three years. Higher personal income wouldalso

generate increased consumer spendingenough to support750,000 to 900,000 jobsin the United States. Experience

shows that legalized workers open bank accounts, buy homes, and start businesses, further stimulating the U.S.

economy . Comprehensive immigration reform increases all workers wages. The real wages of less-skilled newly legalized

workers would increase by roughly $4,405 per year, while higher-skilled workers would see their income

increase $6,185 per year. The wages of native-born high-skill and low-skill U.S. workers also increase modestly under comprehensiveimmigration reform because the wage floor rises for all workers. Legalized workers invest more in their human capital, including education,

job training, and English-language skills, making them even more productive workers and higher earners. Mass deportation is costly, lowerswages, and harms the U.S. economy. Mass deportation would reduce U.S. GDP by 1.46 percent, amounting to a cumulative $2.6 trillion loss inGDP over 10 years, not including the actual costs of deportation. The Center for American Progress has estimated that mass deportation wouldcost $206 billion to $230 billion over five years. Wages would rise for less-skilled native-born workers under a mass deportation scenario, but
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/wp/2013/05/02/why-is-immigration-going-so-much-better-for-obama-than-the-budget/http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/wp/2013/05/02/why-is-immigration-going-so-much-better-for-obama-than-the-budget/http://www.americanprogress.org/issues/immigration/news/2010/01/14/7130/how-immigration-reform-would-help-the-economy/http://www.americanprogress.org/issues/immigration/news/2010/01/14/7130/how-immigration-reform-would-help-the-economy/http://www.americanprogress.org/issues/immigration/news/2010/01/14/7130/how-immigration-reform-would-help-the-economy/http://www.americanprogress.org/issues/immigration/news/2010/01/14/7130/how-immigration-reform-would-help-the-economy/http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/wp/2013/05/02/why-is-immigration-going-so-much-better-for-obama-than-the-budget/http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/wp/2013/05/02/why-is-immigration-going-so-much-better-for-obama-than-the-budget/


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higher-skilled natives wages would decrease, and there would be widespread job loss. Studies from various researchers with

divergent political perspectives confirm these findings. A report by thelibertarian CATO Institute using a

similar CGE model came to startlingly similar conclusions. CATO found that legalization would yield

significant income gains for American workersand households. Legalization would boost the incomes of U.S. households by $180

billion in 2019. CATOalso concluded that tighter restrictions and a reduction in less-skilled immigration would

impose large costs onnative-born Americans by shrinking the overall economy and lowering worker

productivity .

Econ decline risks multiple hotspots for global nuclear war

OHanlon 12Kenneth G. Lieberthal, Director of the John L. Thornton China Center and Senior Fellow in Foreign Policy and Global Economy andDevelopment at the Brookings Institution, former Professor at the University of Michigan, served as special assistant to the president for national security affairs andsenior director for Asia on the National Security Council, holds a Ph.D. from Columbia University, and Michael E. O'Hanlon, Director of Research and Senior Fellowin Foreign Policy at the Brookings Institution, Visiting Lecturer at Princeton University, Adjunct Professor at Johns Hopkins University, holds a Ph.D. from PrincetonUniversity, 2012 (The Real National Security Threat: America's Debt,Los Angeles Times, July 10th,http://www.brookings.edu/research/opinions/2012/07/10-economy-foreign-policy-lieberthal-ohanlon)

Alas, globalization and automation trends of the last generation have increasingly called the American dream into question for the workingclasses. Another decade of underinvestment in what is required to remedy this situation will make an isolationist or populist president far morelikely because much of the country will question whether an internationalist role makes sense for Americaespecially if it costs us well overhalf a trillion dollars in defense spending annually yet seems correlated with more job losses. Lastly, American economic weaknessundercuts U.S. leadership abroad. Other countries sense our weaknessand wonder about our purport 7ed decline. If this

perception becomes more widespread, and the case that we are in decline becomes more persuasive, countries will begin to take actions that

reflect their skepticism about America's future. Allies and friendswill doubt our commitmentand may pursuenuclear weaponsfor their own security, for example; adversaries will sense opportunityand be less restrainedinthrowing around their weightin their own neighborhoods. The crucial Persian Gulf and Western Pacific regions will likely becomeless stable. Major war will become more likely. When running for president last time, Obama eloquently articulated bigforeign policy visions: healing America's breach with the Muslim world, controlling global climate change,dramatically curbing globalpovertythrough development aid, moving toward a world free ofnuclear weapons.These were, and remain, worthy if elusive goals. However, for Obama or his successor, there is now amuchmoreurgent big-pictureissue:restoring U.S. economic strength.Nothing else isreallypossibleif that

fundamentalprerequisite toeffectiveforeign policyis not reestablished.
http://www.brookings.edu/research/opinions/2012/07/10-economy-foreign-policy-lieberthal-ohanlonhttp://www.brookings.edu/research/opinions/2012/07/10-economy-foreign-policy-lieberthal-ohanlonhttp://www.brookings.edu/research/opinions/2012/07/10-economy-foreign-policy-lieberthal-ohanlonhttp://www.brookings.edu/research/opinions/2012/07/10-economy-foreign-policy-lieberthal-ohanlon


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Uniqueness


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2NCUniqueness Wall

Immigration reform is passing nowour CNN evidence indicates there is a bipartisan

agreement in principle to push through immigration reformtheyre just resolving

issues over health care and worker visas

More evidencetheres bipartisan agreement on CIR now, some details are still being

ironed out

WSJ 5-16[Bipartisan House Group Reaches Broad Immigration Deal, May 16th, 2013,http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887323398204578487851658723968.html,Chetan]

WASHINGTONAfter months of negotiations, a bipartisan group of House lawmakers has reached a broad

agreement on a bill to overhaul the immigration system, one of its Republican members said Thursday. "We have an

agreement in principle," Rep. Mario Diaz-Balart (R., Fla.) told reporters. "The big hurdles are taken care of." A Democratic

aide confirmed that a deal had been reached. ButDemocratic lawmakers in the group were largely quiet on the agreement, and one

suggested that some provisions remained unsettled. Rep. Luis Gutierrez of Illinois, writing on Twitter, called it an "important

breakthrough'' and added: "Some details still to be worked out, but very pleased things are moving forward." Theeight House lawmakers revealed few details of their plan, other than to say it would differ from the bipartisan proposal unveiled in the Senate last

month. "There are going to be differences with the Senate bill," Mr. Diaz-Balart said. The House legislation still

must be put into final form, and lawmakers plan to pore over it line-by-line before filing the bill, he said. Theannounced deal was reached in a meeting late Thursday with six of the eight House lawmakers present and one listening over the phone. Thegroup's eighth member, GOP Rep. Sam Johnson of Texas, was in the hospital recovering from hernia surgery, but his chief of staff was present,

Mr. Diaz- Balart said. He didn't specify how widespread support was for different provisions of the bill. Earlier Thursday, lawmakers had

said they were still hammering out differences over whetherthe 11 million illegal immigrantscurrently in the country

should be eligible to receivetaxpayer subsidies toward the cost of health insurance and how many guest workers

should be admitted into the country on work visas. Rep. John Carter (R., Texas) told reporters before the deal was announcedthat Republicans planned to introduce legislation the first week of June even if their four Democratic negotiating partners didn't to sign off on thefinal product. Mr. Carter said House lawmakers were likely to diverge from the Senate on the number of work visas to be created forconstruction workers, though he wouldn't specify how many such visas the House bill would allow. The Senate bill would designate 15,000 visasa year for foreign construction workers. Mr. Carter said that number wouldn't even meet the demand for construction workers in his home state ofTexas. The deal's announcement came after House Speaker John Boehner (R., Ohio) publicly worried Thursday about the group's progress.Mr. Boehner told reporters that he was "concerned" that the bipartisan group had been unable to reach an agreement. For weeks, Mr. Boehner has

praised the House lawmakers' efforts, making it clear that he saw their work as a plausible way to initiate House action on an immigration-overhaul bill. Lawmakers working on the deal also included Democratic Reps. Xavier Becerra and Zoe Lofgren, both of California, John

Yarmuth of Kentucky and Republican Rep. Raul Labrador of Idaho. Separately, senior members of the House Judiciary

Committee have said they intend to begin consideration of individual pieces of legislation aimed at fixing

parts of immigration law. That approach has been seen by many in the House and outside activists as a possible fall-back option in theevent that the House group of lawmakers were unable to reach an agreement.

Immigration reform is gaining momentum in Congressits moving through the

committees

ABC 5-17[Immigration Reform: Where we Stand Today, May 17th, 2013,http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/immigration-reform-stand/story?id=19200803#.UZZ_VrU3vzw,Chetan]

The loud kerfuffle over the heavy-handed IRS and post-Benghazi spin has had one positive effect: immigration reform is quietly

moving ahead under the cable noise and political posturing of dysfunctional Washington.Both houses of Congress

are now expected to have bills ready to debate by the fall session. The bipartisan Senate "gang of 8" appears to be holding

together and its broad outline of border security, pathway to citizenship, guest worker, employment

verification and legal immigration future flow moves through committee largely intact. The Senate Judiciary

Committee has completed its third day of hearings of the sweeping immigration bill and so far the original

architecture of the bill has held strong.The four "gang of 8" members on the committee, Sen. Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.), DickDurbin (D-Ill.), Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) and Jeff Flake (R-Ariz.), have stuck together for the most part to maintain the integrity of their original

bill. Border security and E-verify amendments to the bill have been completed, as well as most of the
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887323398204578487851658723968.htmlhttp://abcnews.go.com/Politics/immigration-reform-stand/story?id=19200803#.UZZ_VrU3vzwhttp://abcnews.go.com/Politics/immigration-reform-stand/story?id=19200803#.UZZ_VrU3vzwhttp://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887323398204578487851658723968.html


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amendments addressing non-immigrant visas.There have been some changes, however. Sen. Chuck Grassley's (R-Iowa)amendment which calls for border security strategies to apply to all nine border sectors, not just the "high risk" ones identified in the original bill,

passed. Diane Feinstein (D-Calif.) also passed a bill on border security that restricts drones' ability to fly more than three miles from the border inSan Diego and El Centro sectors, a smaller section compared to the 100 miles counted as "border" in the original bill.

Reform is passing in the Senate BECAUSE of Obamas PC, continued pressure is keyPolitico 4-25[70+ votes for immigration reform?, April 25th, 2013,http://www.politico.com/story/2013/04/leaders-at-least-70-votes-for-immigration-reform-90626.html,Chetan]

The two lead negotiators in the Senates Gang of Eight said on Thursday that they believe their immigration

reform bill willnot just havea filibuster proof majority in the Senatebut majority support from both parties. I think it is doable, Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) said at a breakfast sponsored by the Christian Science Monitor. Sen. Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.)said the bill cannot slip by with 60 votes because the House would feel less pressure to take it up. Others in the negotiating group have said they

think the bill could win at least 70 Senate votes. But the predictions of majority support from Republicans and Democrats is a moreambitious goal than any members have previously stated. We want a large Republican vote, Schumer said at the breakfast.He said the Gang ofEight had vote counting in mind while they were negotiating a deal between agricultural workers and growers on a visa program for the industry.Schumer said the group worked hard to win over growers in the Southeast, which is predominantly represented by Republicans and conservativeDemocrats. The senators said they support amending the immigration overhaul bill to address shortcomings in the system that led to the BostonMarathon bombings. It is too early know exactly what needs to be fixed, McCain said, but the potential solutions should be clear by the time the

bill reaches the Senate floor in June. We are completely open to amendments that would in any way prevent what happened in Boston, McCainsaid. McCain said members of the Gang of Eight remain in contact with key House members. He said he spoke Wednesday with Rep. Paul Ryan(R-Wis.) to thank him for backing comprehensive immigration reform at an event Monday. Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) has addressed theRepublican Study Committee, McCain said. But McCain added that the more serious conversations wont take place until after the Senate passes

a specific package. McCain praised President Barack Obamasrole in the process, with Schumer adding that it

has been justabout perfect.
http://www.politico.com/story/2013/04/leaders-at-least-70-votes-for-immigration-reform-90626.htmlhttp://www.politico.com/story/2013/04/leaders-at-least-70-votes-for-immigration-reform-90626.html


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AT: House Delay

The House will move on immigration quicklyall members are compromising and moving

the bill through the committees to a floor vote

ABC 5-16[Immigration Overhaul: House Has Agreement in Principle, May 16th, 2013,http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/politics/2013/05/immigration-overhaul-senate-moves-forward-house-plays-catchup/#agreement,Chetan]

The House bipartisan Gang of Eight has reached an agreement in principle on immigrationoverhaul,

including major points such as a pathway to citizenship, border security, health care and guest workers , a

member of the group told ABC News tonight. The lower chambernow expects to work out details next weekbefore taking theMemorial Day break and introducing the bill June 4. Over hoagie sandwiches, a two-hour meeting of a bipartisan group of congressmen nearlyfell apart today over who would pay for immigrant health care, the House Gang member said.Rep. Raul Labrador, R-Idaho, was the last

holdout who had to call into the meeting from Idaho where his daughter had a recital, the member said. Labrador, described as the most

influential Republican in the House Gang of Eight because he represents Majority Leader Eric Cantors interests, finally

agreed when language proposed by Democrats ensured that taxpayer money would not pay for immigrant

health care. Although not a member of the Gang of Eight, Wisconsin congressman and former vice presidential contender Paul Ryan wasinstrumental in bringing the Republicans along in the agreement. The House bipartisan group that seemed to have stalled earlier today announcedit is finally moving forward on its own version of immigration overhaul. House Speaker John Boehner, R-Ohio, told reporters earlier today thathe was concerned that the bipartisan group has been unable to wrap up their work.I know that there are some very difficult issues that havecome up, but I continue to believe that the House needs to deal with this and the House needs to work its will, he said. How we get there, werestill dealing with it.But Rep. Mario Diaz-Balart, R-Fla., told reporters this evening that the group has an agreement in principle that weredrafting.That agreement was struck after the two-hour meeting late this afternoon. It is a very well-thought out, responsible, serious,enforceable proposal, he said. I feel really, really, really, really comfortable with the fact that this is a very completebill, that fulfills what Ivealways wanted, which is to fix whats broken.The whole package will now be run past their respective leadership and colleagues before the

final language is finished and reviewed. But Diaz-Balart said the bill isimminent. Meanwhile, the Senate Judiciary

Committee has completed three days of markupsand had addressed a total of 82 of the 300 amendments introduced to thelegislation, which was written by the Senate Gang of Eight. That meant they had earlier addressed more than a quarter of th e amendments. A

spokesman for Sen. Patrick Leahy, D-Vt., told ABC News earlier today that they were makinggood progress and by far most

amendments have passed on bipartisan basis. Last week, we met for hours and worked through scores of amendments, Leahy

noted at Tuesdays hearing. Some termed our efforts a lesson in democracy. Many noted that senators showed a commitment

to fairness and compromise.
http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/politics/2013/05/immigration-overhaul-senate-moves-forward-house-plays-catchup/#agreementhttp://abcnews.go.com/blogs/politics/2013/05/immigration-overhaul-senate-moves-forward-house-plays-catchup/#agreementhttp://abcnews.go.com/blogs/politics/2013/05/immigration-overhaul-senate-moves-forward-house-plays-catchup/#agreementhttp://abcnews.go.com/blogs/politics/2013/05/immigration-overhaul-senate-moves-forward-house-plays-catchup/#agreement


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Link


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2NCLink Wall

Congress HATES any cooperation with Cuba over oil drillingseveral bills have been

brought to sanction companies that even try

Nerurkar and Sullivan 11[Neelesh Nerurkar - Specialist in Energy Policy and Mark P. Sullivan - Specialistin Latin American Affairs, Cubas Offshore Oil Development: Background and U.S. Policy Considerations,November 28th, 2011,http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/row/R41522.pdf,Chetan]

Interest in Cubas offshore oil development has cont inued in the 112th Congress as foreign oilcompanies have moved forward with plans to begin exploratory drilling. To date, five

legislative initiatives have been introduced taking different approaches, and two congressional hearings have been held examining the issue.

H.R. 372 (Buchanan), introduced January 26, 2011, would amend the Outer Continental Shelf Lands Act to authorize the Secretary of

the Interior to deny oil and gas leases and permits topersons who engage in activities with the government

of any foreign country that is subject to any sanction or an embargo by the U.S. government. The intent of

the legislation is to provide a disincentive to companies involved, or contemplating becoming involved, in

Cubasoil development, although the scope of the legislation is much broader and could a ffect other oil companies, including U. S. companies, not involved in Cuba. Becausethe bill does not define sanction, the term could be used to refer to such U.S. restrictions as export controls o r limits on foreign assistance. With this u se of the term, many countries worldwidecould be construed as being subject to a U.S. sanction, and as a result, any energy company that engages in activities with one o f these countries could be denied an o il and gas lease in the United

States under the proposed legislation. S. 405 (Bill Nelson), the Gulf Stream Protection Act of 2011, introduced February 17, 2011, would require a company that is conducting oil or gasoperations off the coasts of Cuba to submit an oil response plan for their Cuba operations and demonstrate sufficient resources to respond to a worst case scenario if th e company wanted to leasedrilling rights in the United States. The bill would also require the Secretary of the Interior to carry out an oil spill risk analysis and planning process for the development and implementation ofoil spill response plans for nondomestic oil spills in the Gulf of Mexico. The Secretary of the Interior would be required, among other things, to include recommendations for Congress on a joint

contingency plan with the countries o f Mexico, Cuba, and the Bahamas to ensure an adequate response to oil spills located in the eastern Gulf o f Mexico. H.R. 2047 (Ros-Lehtinen),

the Caribbean Coral Reef Protection Act of 2011 (identical to a bill introduced in t he 111th Congress and noted above), was introduced May 26, 2011, and would impose visa

restrictions on foreign nationals and economic sanctions on companies that help facilitate the development of

Cubasoffshore petroleum resources . The bill would exclude from the United States aliens who invest $1 million or more that contributes to the enhancement of the

ability of Cuba to develop its offshore oil resources. It would also require the imposition of sanctions (two or more from a menu of listed sanct ions) if the

President determined that a person had made an investment of $1 millionon or after January 10, 2005, that contributed to

Cubasoffshore oil development.

Obama has to use his PC

Orth 11(Derek Orth, J.D. expected May 2012, Rutgers School of Law (Newark, N.J.); Managing Articles Editorfor the Rutgers Computer and Technology Law Journal, 2011 University of Oregon, Journal of Environmental Lawand Litigation, 26 J. Envtl. L. & Litig. 509, Lexis, 2011)

The Deepwater Horizon was constructed in 2001 and was "capable of operating in water up to 8,000 feet deep and able to drill down to

30,000 feet." n6 The disaster occurred while Halliburton Energy Services, Inc. (Halliburton) was mounting

production casing and [*512] cementon a 5,000 feet deep exploratory well in the Macondo Prospect. Ironically, integrity tests weredue to be performed on the Macondo well at the time the explosion occurred, after which the well would have been capped until BP was prepared

to begin extraction operations. n7 Tragically, the fiery explosion that occurred onboard the Deepwater Horizon threw

BP's plans into disarray, resulting in eleven deaths,n8 millions of barrels of spewing oil, n9 and immense damage to the

Gulf Coast. n10 The subsequent proliferation of monetary claims, lawsuits, and legislation n11 has raised

numerous issues that stand to forever alter the regulatory structure of the offshore oil industry n12 as well as the

liability schemes of international oil companies operating in the United States' coastal waters. n13 A bill's passage through Congress

is fraught with danger at every turn . In general, most bills are submitted by individual members of Congress,examined and voted upon by specialized committees, presented to both the House and Senate for approval,

and, finally, submitted to the President for his signature. Thus, a well-meaning and complex bill can often only

gain approval through an expenditure of serious political capital by at least one party or the occurrence of an

event that exerts public pressure on both political parties to react expediently and deal with the crisis.
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OCS sparks fights in Congress- environmental and military backlash

Bolton 10(Alexander Bolton, The Hill, Obamas drilling proposal sparks battle among Senate Dems,http://thehill.com/homenews/senate/90049-obamas-drilling-proposal-sparks-battle-among-senate-democrats,March31, 2010)

President Barack Obamas decisionto open the nations coastline to offshore drillinghas set up a fracas with Senate

Democrats. Sen. Frank Lautenberg(D-N.J.), one of the leading Senate opponents of offshore drilling, has blasted

Obamas plan.But Virginia Democratic Sens. Jim Webb and Mark Warner are on board, urging Obama to move quickly to open mid -Atlantic shores for oil and gas

exploration.Drillingoff the Virginia coast would endanger manyof New Jerseys beaches and vibrant coastal economies, Lautenberg said

in a statement. Giving Big Oil more access to our nations waters is really a Kill, Baby, Kill policy : it threatens to

killjobs, kill marine life and kill coastal economies that generate billions of dollars, he added. Offshore drilling isnt the solution

to our energy problems, and I will fight this policy and continue to push for 21st century clean energy solutions.DemocraticSenatorial Campaign Committee Chairman Robert Menendez (N.J.) also took a strong st ance against Obamas proposal Wednesday. I have le t the administration know that offshore drilling is anon-starter for me, Menendez told The Newark Star-Ledger. A spill in Virginia ends up in Cape May, New Jersey. Obama has proposed opening a vast stretch of the Atlantic coast , from thenorthern tip of Delaware to mid-Florida, to offshore drilling.Webb and Warner pushed the administration to act in a letter to U.S. Interior Secret ary Ken Salazar in January."We would urge youto promptly commence these steps in order to ensure that the Virginia lease sale is conducted in a manner that is t imely and consistent with the interests of the environment and our national

security," the lawmakers wrote.Sen. Bill Nelson, a Democrat from Florida, also raised concerns over how the new drilling proposal

might affect military exercises in his state. Ive talked many times to Secretary Salazar and told him if they dri lled too close to Floridas beaches theyd be

risking the states economy and the e nvironment, Nelson said in a statement. I believe t his plan shows they heeded that concern. Now I need to hear from Defense

Secretary Robert Gates, Nelson added. And I want him to look me in the eye and assure me that this plan will not

compromise national security by interfering with the unfettered space we have for training and testing our

most sophisticated military weapons systems.Republican critics, such as former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin, have also put pressure on Obama to develop the

nations energy resources.Environmentalists argue the potential energy gains are not worth the expected impact on

beaches and marine life.Lautenberg argues that an oil spill could create severe ecological damage within a 500-mile radius putting the New Jersey shoreline in danger. Hesaid the beaches and beach towns o f New Jersey generate about $50 billion in economic activity every year and employ 500, 000 people. The government estimates that 130 million barrels of oiland 1.14 trillion cubic feet of natural gas may lie off Virginias shores.The Bush administration crafted a plan in 2008 to begin leasing an oil and gas patch off Virginias coast beginning in 2011.The Virginia senators contacted Salazar after progress on the lease slowed. Warner applauded the plan Obama announced Tuesday. "This is good news and a positive step forward as we work toexpand our nation's domestic energy production, Warner said in a statement. Moving forward on the mid-Atlantic off-shore proposal will provide an opportunity to determine the scope of ourregion's off-shore energy resources, the economic viability of accessing t hose resources, and the potential impacts on our environmental and national security priorities. In September, twoDemocratic senators voted for an amendment sponsored by Sen. David V itter (R-La.) that would have prohibited delaying t he Bush administrations Outer Continental Shelf Oil and Gas Leasing

Program. They were Sens. Mark Begich (Alaska) and Ben Nelson (Neb.). Fifty-four Democrats and two independents voted to support the Obama administrations suspension of t he plan. A

lobbyist for an environmental group said that liberals such as Sens. Barbara Boxer (D-Calif.) and Bernie

Sanders (I-Vt.) would raise objections to Obamas proposal. Democratic senators from Washington, Oregon and Rhode Island have also voicedobjections to offshore drilling in the past.

Relaxing drilling restrictions empirically causes backlash---no risk of offenseBroder 10John is a writer for the New York Times. Obama to Open Offshore Areas to Oil Drilling for FirstTime, March 31, http://www.nytimes.com/2010/03/31/science/earth/31energy.html?_r=0But while Mr. Obama has staked out middle ground on other environmental matters supporting nuclear power, for example the sheer breadth of the offshore

drillingdecision will take some of his supporters aback. And it is no sure thing that it will win support for a climate

bill from undecided senators close to the oil industry, like Lisa Murkowski, Republican of Alaska, or Mary L. Landrieu, Democrat ofLouisiana. The Senate is expected to take up a climate bill in the next few weeksthe last chance to enact such legislation before midterm election concerns takeover. Mr. Obama and his allies in the Senate have already made significant concessions on coal and nuclear power to try to wi n votes from Republicans and moderateDemocrats. The new plan now grants one of the biggest items on the oil industrys wish list access to vast areas of the Outer Continental Shelf for drilling. But

even as Mr. Obama curries favors with pro-drilling interests, he risks a backlash from some coastal governors, senators and

environmental advocates, who say that the relatively small amounts of oil to be gained in the offshore areas

are not worth the environmental risks.

Plan costs political capitalMART 8Mergers and Acquisitions Round Table, This section includes quotes from Andrew Spitzer, Founder of theEnergy and Power Group at Harris and Williams Co., and Douglas Korn of Irving Place Partners. Combustible;The volatility of the energy sector has turned the industry upside down. Top players in the space discuss what thismeans for investors and how dealmakers can capitalize., Dec 1, Lexis

But its also important to remember that oil is a fungible commodity and the price is set on a worldwide basis. Ultimately, we have to focus ondomestic production to help with the supply issue, and, internationally, see if we cant encourage the national oil companies to open up moreacreage for competition. This is a worldwide problem; not just a US problem.Mergers & Acquisitions: Is it even possible, though, to completely

eliminate demand for foreign oil? Is this something that could happen in our lifetime? Spitzer: The economics certainly make it

extremely challenging, andfrankly, without the political willpower to put in a variety of reformswhether its
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CAFE standards or relieving offshore drilling inhibitorsits not something that would get done without some form of

government intervention. Korn: That being said, the recent turmoil in the market and the governments response have created a

very difficult fiscal situationgoing into 2009. You have the normal cyclical impacts of a downturn in government receipts and that

overlays all of the government support to shore up the markets. You have to go back to the question of whether or not there

will there be the political will.There are important reasons behind why we haveto become less reliant on foreign energy; from a

geopolitical point of view, from a carbon emissions point of view. But how now you have to ask, How do we make that happen in an

environment where the government will be under some severe fiscal constraints. Thatsgoing to be the realchallenge . Spitzer: And regulation is effectively a silent taxation policy. So instituting that in the face of the pocketbook issues that people are

dealing with is going to be tough. Any administration would have to burn a lot of political capital to push through an

energy policythat tries to accomplish what either candidate proposed.

Plan can only hurt Obamaonly opposition to the plankills democrat supportMargaret Kriz Hobson 12, E&E reporter, April 18,http://www.eenews.net/public/energywire/2012/04/18/1

OFFSHORE DRILLING: Obama's development plans gain little political traction in years since Gulf spill President

Obama is embracing the offshore oil and gas development policieshe proposed in early 2010 but were sidelined in the

shadow of the Deepwater Horizon oil spill. Two years after the BP PLC oil rig exploded, killing 11 people and causing the worst oil spill in U.S.history, Obama's "all of the above" energy pol icy includes offshore drilling provisions that are nearly identical to his aggressive March 2010 drilling plan. Since themoratorium on offshore oil drilling ended in late 2010, the administration expanded oil and gas development in the western and centra l Gulf of Mexico and announced

plans for lease sales in the eastern Gulf. The White House appears poised to allow Royal Dutch Shell PLC to begin exploring for oil this summer in Alaska's Beaufortand Chukchi seas and to open oil industry access to the Cook Inlet, south of Anchorage. The administrat ion is also paving the way for oil and gas seismic studiesalong the mid- and south Atlantic coasts, the first such survey in 30 years. While opening more offshore lands to oil and gas development, the Obama administrat ionhas also taken steps to make offshore oil drilling safer, according to a report card issued yesterday by Oil Spill Commission Action, an oversight panel formed byseven members of President Obama's oil spill commission. That report criticized Congress for failing to adopt new oil spill safety laws but praised the Interior

Department and industry for making progress in improving offshore oil development safety, environmental protection and oi l spill preparation. An environmentalgroup was less complimentary. A report yesterday by Oceana charged that the measures adopted by government and industry are "woefully inadequate." As the 2012

presidential campaign heats up and gasoline prices remain stuck near $4 per gallon, Obama's offshore oil development policies aren't

winning him any political capital. The environmental community hates the drilling proposals . The

Republicans and oil industry officials complain that the White House hasn't gone far enough.And

independent voters are confused by the president's rhetoric. According to the GOP political firm Resurgent Republic, independentvoters in Colorado and Virginia don't understand what Obama's "all of the above" energy mantra means. The report said, however, that once the policy was "describedas oil, gas, coal, nuclear power, solar and other alternative energies, participants became enthusiastic and view such a strategy as credible and necessary to becoming

more energy independent." A recent Gallup poll indicated that American voters are polarized on energy issues. The survey found that 47percent of the public believes energy development is more important than environmental protection, while 41 percent of the public ranks protecting the environment

as a bigger priority. In that political climate, Obama's offshore oil development policies are not likely to affect the nation'smost conservative or liberal voters, noted Larry Sabato, director of the University o f Virginia's Center for Politics . "The environmentalists have no

place to go except Obama, and Obama isn't going to convince any conservatives or Republicans to back him" based on his oil and gas proposals, Sabato said. "He'sobviously aiming at swing independents," Sabato added. "He's trying to show that he's pursuing a middle path, the one many independents like. Maybe it will work."

Back to the original plan, minus 2 pieces Obama's all-of-the-above energy policy is in keeping with his pre-oil-spill offshore oil and gas development proposal. Afterthe Deepwater Horizon disaster, the White House s lapped a six-month moratorium on all new oil and gas development. Since the moratorium ended, Obama has

systematically reintroduced most of the early o il development proposals. Two pieces of the old p lan are missing. Obama backtracked on his proposal to allow oilexploration off Virginia's coast. The new East Coast offshore plan lays the groundwork for seismic studies, but not drilling, along the mid- and south Atlantic. TheWhite House also dropped a proposal to allow exploration in the eastern Gulf of Mexico within 125 miles of Florida, an area o ff limits due to a congressionalmoratorium. During 2010 negotiations, the administration offered to allow oil leasing in the region if Congress lifted the moratorium and passed a global warming bill.

When the climate change legislation died, however, the drill ing provision lost White House favor. Since the Republicans took control of the House in 2011, GOP

leaders have advanced a series of bills that would go far beyond Obama's offshore oil drilling policies,

essentially allowing development along all U.S. shores. But those measures have been thwarted by the

Democrat-controlled Senate. The Republicans and industry officials long for the offshore oil and gas plan floated by former President George W. Bushduring his last days in office. That proposal would have offered 31 federal lease sales and included regions off the Atlantic and Pacific coasts. By comparison,Obama's 2012 to 2017 leasing blueprint includes a dozen sites in Alaska and the Gulf of Mexico and excludes the West Coast and northern East Coast.

No turns---liberals hate the plan and conservatives wont give Obama credit for itWalsh 11, Bryan, TIME Senior editor, November 9, Why Obamas Offshore Drilling Plan Isnt Making AnyoneHappy, http://science.time.com/2011/11/09/why-obamas-offshore-drilling-plan-isnt-making-anyone-happy/#ixzz26snhDbbI

Nonetheless, Obamahas set a targetof reducing U.S. oil importsby a third by 2025, and greater domesticoil production is going

tohave to be a partof thatincluding oil from the Arctic. Unfortunately for the President, no oneslikely to cheer him. Conservatives

and theoil industry wontbe happy untiljust about every square foot of the country is availablefor drillingthough it is
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worth noting that oil production offshore has actually increased under Obamaand environmentalists arent going torally to support any

sort of expanded drilling . With energy, as with so many other issues for Obama, itslonely at the center.

EmpiricsE&E Daily 12 (Environment and Energy Daily, 1/17, lexis)Despite an impressive track record at clearing energy and public lands measures, the Senate Energyand Natural Resources Committee

didn't see a single measure debated on the Senate floor in 2011. Retiring committee Chairman Jeff Bingaman (D-N.M.) islikely to keep the pressure on Senate leaders to take those measures up in the full chamber as his time in the Senate comes to a close at the end ofthis year. And he'll also likely encourage discussions of his upcoming clean energy standard legislation. The measure isn't likely to gain muchtraction among Republicans in either chamber -- a fact Bingaman acknowledges -- but he says it will still be important to start debate on the issue.

Other highlights Lessons learned from 2011 The committeelast year kept up its famously bipartisan appearances, churning out an

impressive 61 bills. But the panel still suffered from bouts of partisanship that brought action on certain issues-- like a

response to the 2010 Gulf of Mexico oil spill -- to a standstill. The addition of several new tea party-backed GOP freshmen to the roster also

caused some strife at committee meetings and in negotiations on seemingly noncontroversial bills. Head-butting isn't likely to go

away on key issuesas election-year politics dominate discussions throughout the Capitol. CES: Bingaman has vowed to float legislationearly this session that would create a federal clean energy standard requiring utilities to generate a certain percentage of their electricity from low-carbon sources in the coming decades. Once introduced, the measure is sure to get ample face time in the committee, but partisan roadblocks inthe full Senate and a sure death in the House will likely prevent it from moving beyond the panel. Smaller bipartisan bills: The committee lastyear cleared dozens of smaller energy bills on a bipartisan basis -- many of them breakouts from a broad 2009 energy bill that stalled in the fullSenate -- but none have seen floor time. Bingaman will likely push Senate leaders to move on some of those measures as he sees the clock ticking

on his time in the Senate. Offshore drilling: Efforts last year to advance offshore drillingsafety language stalledafter rankingmember Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska) and Sen. Mary Landrieu (D-La.) urged the inclusion of coastal revenue-sharing language in a bill

responding to the 2010 oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico. Bingaman isn't likely to advance the legislation this session, but the committee

could take a look at other offshore drilling issues, such as Interior's five-year leasing plan. Republicans and the oil

industry want to see the areasincluded in that plan beefed up, while environmentalists and many Democrats say it

already infringes on too many sensitive areas.

Forces political energy fights- saps capitalGeman 10[Ben, The Hill, 4/1/10, http://thehill.com/blogs/e2-wire/e2-wire/90137-drilling-push-shakes-up-climate-fight-]

While most of the drilling proposal can be undertaken using executive power, expanded drillingin the eastern Gulf of Mexico would require congressional

approval. That will surely play a role in the fight over energy and climate legislation that Democrats hope to bring to the floor. Republicans

called Obamas plan too narrow, as it closes off or delays leasing or sales in other areas. The energy consulting firm ClearView Energy Partners, in a research noteWednesday, said the limits of t he White House plan give architects of t he Senate energy and climate bill an opening to woo new support. One obvious implication of todays announcement:

delaying and canceling OCS [Outer Continental Shelf] sales gives lawmakers the opportunity to sweeten a climate bill by restoring or accelerating sales, ClearView states. But theWhite House and the architects of Senate legislation Sens. John Kerry (D-Mass.), Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) and Joe Lieberman (I-Conn.)risklosing support among liberal Democrats and environmentalists as they seek expanded drilling. For instance, Sen. FrankLautenberg (D-N.J.) attacked the plan Wednesday. Drillingoff the Virginia coast wouldendangermany of New Jerseysbeaches and vibrant coastaleconomies, Lautenberg said in a prepared st atement. Environmental groupsthat are on board with efforts to craft a compromise climate change and energy bill such asthe Sierra Club and the Natural Resources Defense Council also slammed the proposal.

Offshore drilling costs capitalupsets baseNumerick, 10(Kevin, "Does the President Treat his Political Opponents Fairly?", Helium, September 5,http://www.helium.com/debates/239736-does-president-obama-treat-his-political-opponents-fairly/side_by_side)PresidentObama has tried to re-implement nuclear power, which disturbed his base, but is strongly

supported by most republicans as a viable and must-have source of energy production in the future. Not long after, he wenteven further and spoke of adding more off-shore drilling, which really went against his base of supporters .

Regardless, the Republican Party still said no, accusing him of playing politics. Shortly after, the BP Deep Water Horizon

event happened. President Obama is also a supporter of Clean Coal Technology which is certainly considered a bipartisan goal, though many

Democrats disagree with it fiercely.

Bipartisan oppositionGreenwire 6(Rough going seen for efforts to lift congressional moratoria, 5-26-6,http://www.noia.org/website/download.asp?id=295)
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With a growing number of Republican lawmakers facing stiff midterm races, efforts to open more offshore

areas to oil and gas drilling will find tough going on Capitol Hill,environmentalists and others tracking the issue say. Fornow, industry groups say momentum is on their side. Though the House voted 217-203 on Thursday to reject removing congressional moratoriaon most offshore natural gas drilling, industry lobbyists point out that Rep. John Peterson's (R-Pa.) plan got 46 more votes than it did last year. Ifthere is an offshore drilling component to an upcoming House energy package, it is expected to be shaped largely by House ResourcesCommittee Chairman Richard Pombo (R-Calif.). Pombo's plan would allow states to "opt-out" of offshore oil and gas drilling bans. States that

opt-out would receive a share of offshore production revenues. Environmentalists are hopeful the bipartisan coastal coalitionthat opposes wider leasing will not be swayed in sufficient numbers to endorse an opt-out planor other efforts thatare less aggressive than Peterson's but still relax current bans. Heather Taylor, deputy legislative director for the Natural Resources DefenseCouncil, called the argument that Thursday's vote puts industry within striking distance of winning changes to current restrictions a "stretch."

"We still won. Period," Taylor said in an interview Friday. " The bottom line is that [the] vote proves that people care about

our coasts, and any proposal that comes through that hurts our coasts will be rejected." Also, a House floor vote last

week that would also have lifted congressional coastal oil drilling bans lost by a large margin. That prompted an environmentalist to

note that an opt-out covering both oil and gas would face hurdles that could be greater than Peterson's gas-

only proposal. One lobbyist who works on environmental and energy issues does not believe the House is ready to adopt the

opt-out idea, which was most recently floated through legislation offered by Rep. BobbyJindal (R-La.) that largely

mirrors an opt-out and state revenue-sharing plan Pombo floated last year. "I don't see how an opt-out passes," the lobbyist said. "We

have never lost a vote on this on the floor,"added an aide to a Democratic lawmaker. "To succeed, Pombo has to play the middleground. I am not sure if he is there yet." Still, an industry lobbyist seeking wider drilling said Friday the vote on Peterson's plan "proves anuanced approach to things ... has a lot of credibility on the Hill right now." Yet the fight could get tougher if it does not happen this year.

Republicans are bracing for a tough midterm election, and while votes on offshore drilling are not quite partisanshowdowns, more Democrats oppose wider offshore leasing.

Pisses off Obamas baseMaize, 10(Kennedy, Copenhagen: The Case for Climate Adaptation, Managing Power, March 1,http://www.managingpowermag.com/opinion_and_commentary/Copenhagen-The-Case-for-Climate-Adaptation_227.html)Energy legislation is dead for 2010, except for possible subsidies for nuclear power, clean coal, and offshore

drilling, designed to appeal to Republicans. But that reach across the partisan divide likely will enrage

Obamasbase among liberals and environmentalists.Thepredictable outcome: more gridlockand name-calling. Noaction.

That Tanks capitalCampbell, 11(James E., Distinguished Professor of Political Science and Chair of the Department and the University of Buffalo, PoliticalForces on the Obama Presidency: From Elections to Governing, http://www.polsci.buffalo.edu/documents/ObamaPresidencyChapter4.pdf)Since neither the ideological base of a party not its supporters in the center can be ignored-and since both have different demandspresidents

must arrive at some balance between them. In no small part, the success of presidents in governing depends on their success

in striking the right balance between governing to please their partys base and governing to please the

political center. Like every presidency before his,this is the challenge for Obamaspresidency.Its success ingoverning the nation, as well as the possibility of a second term, may hinge on how well the president strikes the right balance between appealing

to his liberal base and simultaneously to his supporters in the political center. The principal reason why a presidents success in office

depends on his ability to maintain the support of the presidents electoral coalition (the combined partisan base

and centrist supporters)is that this is also his governing coalition.Since political views are generally stable, a president should

expect to receive most of his support while in office from the same quarters that supported him in his election. As a consequence, the

success of a president in office depends to a great extent on his ability to maintain both the support of his base

and the center. Just as the presidents electoral success depended on maintaining his electoral coalition, his success in governingdepends on maintaining the support of that same coalition. In effect, there is no bright line between the politics of governingand the politics of elections. In its most basic sense, the permanent campaign to maintain the presidents constituency of supporters fromelection to office and on to the next election is fundamental to presidential politics.

Plan is a flip flopSexton 12[John, 3/30/12, http://www.breitbart.com/Big-Government/2012/03/30/Atlantic-Oil-And-Gas]
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Yesterday the Obamaadministration announced a delaying tactic which will put off the possibility of new offshore oil drilling on theAtlantic coast for at least five years: The announcementby the Interior Department sets into motionwhat will be at leasta five yearenvironmental surveyto determine whether and where oil production might occur.

Tanks capital

Goddard, 9(Taegan, CreatorPolitical Wire, (One of the Most Widely-Read and Influential Political Web Sites

on the Internet), "Does Obama Practice a Different Kind of Politics?", CQ Politics, 3-19,http://innovation.cq.com/liveonline/51/landing)# Dan from Philadelphia: How quickly is Obama burning through his political capital? Will he have anything left to actually keep some of his

promises? With potential shifts from his campaign stanceson the question of Gitmo, Iraq troop withdrawals and taxing employer

healthcare benefits, it seems he is in for tough fightson all fronts. # Taegan Goddard: That's a great question. I think Obama spends

some of his political capital every time he makes an exception to his principles -- such as hiring a lobbyist to a key

position or overlooking an appointee not paying their taxes. Policy reversals such as the ones you note burn through even

more of this precious capital .
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AT: Lifting Moratorium Popular

Even if it has support- triggers Congressional battles which sap capitalAP 12[Associated Press, 7/25/12, http://www.foxnews.com/us/2012/07/25/house-gop-rejects-obama-plan-for-offshore-drilling/]

In an election-year swipe at President Barack Obama's energy policies, theRepublican-led Houseon Wednesday voted to revokeObama'sfive-yearplan for offshore drilling, replacing it with its own plan that calls for more ambitious oil and gas development off the

U.S. coast. The legislation will likely go nowhere in the Senate and the White House has issued a veto threat , but

as with the tax and regulatory bills the House is also taking up this month, it puts lawmakers on the record on the issues that divide

the two parties . Rep. Doc Hastings, R-Wash., chairman of the Natural Resources Committee, said the bill would offer lawmakers a choicebetween Obama's restrictive plan and the far more expansive Republican version that opens up areas off the Atlantic and southern California fordrilling. The Republican proposal passed 253-170 with 25 Democrats supporting it. The House also voted 261-164 to reject the president's plan.The Interior Department on June 28 announced its 2012-2017 offshore oil and gas leasing program that schedules 12 potential lease sales in theGulf of Mexico and three off the coast of Alaska. The White House, in its veto threat issued earlier this week, said its plan makes available fordevelopment more than 75 percent of estimated, technically recoverable oil and gas resources in U.S. oceans. The House bill, by contrast,

provides for 29 lease sales over the same five-year period, and includes areas of the Atlantic coast from Maine to Virginia, and areas off thesouthern coast of California as well as Alaska and Gulf areas. Hastings said the administration's plan proposed fewer leases than anyadministration since the Jimmy Carter presidency. Singling out an election swing state, he said "Virginia will be left out in the cold" until 2017 atthe earliest, cheating the commonwealth of thousands of jobs. The Obama plan, he said, keeps 85 percent of America's offshore areas off-limits to

energy production. He and other Republicans said the Bush administration, responding to $4 gas prices in the summer of 2008, had newly openednearly all offshore areas to energy production, but that Obama tossed that decision aside when he took office in 2009. The Obama administration,he said, has spent the past 3 1/2 years on a plan "that effectively re-imposes the drilling moratoria lifted in 2008." Hastings said the GOP plan

would generate $600 million in additional revenue and create tens of thousands of new jobs. But Rep. Ed Markeyof Massachusetts, top

Democrat on the Natural Resources Committee, chided Republicans for bringing six " giveaways to Big Oil" to the

House floor,"all far too extreme to pass the Senate." TheRepublicanbill, he said "would place drill rigs right off our

beaches in Southern California" as well as off beaches in Maine and other eastern states.Democratsalso argued thatmore domestic oil is in production today than at any time during the past 14 years and that oil companies already have leases in theGulf that contain 18 billion barrels of oil and are sitting idle . The White House said the GOP bill would mandate OuterContinental Shelf lease sales in areas "without regard for significant issues such as state and local concernsandimpacts on important fishing areas and with inadequate consideration of military use conflicts."
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AT: No Link - Presidential Action

Congress has to do it-costs capitalMalkin 8(Michelle, Drill bits: The uphill battle to lift domestic restrictions Update: McCain. Ugh. , 6-11-8,http://michellemalkin.com/2008/06/11/drill-bits-the-uphill-battle-to-lift-domestic-restrictions/)

Supporters of a proposal to allow drilling for oil and gas off the U.S. coastline are expected to make their case to a House panel Wednesday.

Offshore oil and gas production has been banned off most of the U.S. coastline since Congress approved the

O uter C ontinental S helf moratorium in 1981, which prevented the leasing of coastal waters for fossil fuel development. Rep.

John Peterson, R-Pa., wants to change that with an amendment to the Interior Department spending bill to be

considered by a House Appropriations subcommittee. The amendment would lift the prohibition on exploration 50 to 200 miles

offshore but continue to ban drilling within 50 miles of the coas tline. For 27 years, Congress has deliberately locked-up vast

offshore oil and natural gas reserves,Peterson said. With the price at the pump increasing daily with no end in sightand the

cost of natural gas trading at record levels, Congress needs to unlock these reserves. He cites estimates from the MineralsManagement Service that there are 86 billion barrels of oil and 420 trillion cubic feet of natural gas located offshore
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Internals


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2NCPC Key

Obamas political capital is necessary to ensure passageour Washington Post evidence

indicates that its unlikely that Republicans will consider a deal without AGGRESSIVE

Obama push

Sustained pressure is key to win supportObama needs to use his capital

RCP 5-1[Real Clear Politics, Obama Eyes Higher Profile Role on Immigration, May 1st, 2013,http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2013/05/01/obama_eyes_higher_profile_role_on_immigration_118204.html,Chetan]

But now that the Gang of Eight bill is public and is winning some Republican support , White House advisers say

there's less risk in Obama taking on a larger public role in the debate too.The focus on immigration in the capital comesas rallies are expected in dozens of cities around the country Wednesday in what has become an annual cry for easing the nation's immigrationlaws. Florida Sen. Marco Rubio, a favorite of conservatives and potential GOP presidential candidate in 2016, is one if the bill's architects, as isArizona's Republican Sen. John McCain. And even in the Republican-led House, where an immigration overhaul faces a steeper challenger, theGang of Eight measure has won praise from House Speaker John Boehner, R-Ohio, and Rep. Paul Ryan, R-Wis. The bill would strengthen border

security, allow tens of thousands of new high- and low-skilled workers into the country, require all employers to check their workers' legal statusand provide an eventual path to citizenship for some 11 million immigrants now here illegally. The measure is similar to the immigration

principles Obama outlined in January during a visit to Las Vegas, his only immigration-focused trip of the year, though there are key differences.For example, the Senate bill makes the pathway to citizenship contingent on securing the border, which Obama opposes, and does not recognize

gay couples, which Obama supports. Manyimmigration advocates say they support Obama getting more involved in the

debate as the draft bill weaves its way through the Senate Judiciary Committee, and likely to the Senate floor.

" He needs to be an advocate and push for the bill in the Senate to make sure this gets done ," Eliseo Medina of the

Service Employees International Union said of the president. " We need continued sustained pressure from all facets." McCain

also welcomedthe prospect of a more proactive Obama , saying the president is committed to being heavily engaged. But the ArizonaRepublican, who has spoken with Obama about the immigration negotiations several times in recent weeks, added that the president "doesn'twant to harm the passage of the bill either. And I believe him."

Obamas PC is key to win Congressional support onborder security

NPR 5-2[Obama To Pitch Immigration Overhaul In Mexico, May 2nd 2013,http://www.npr.org/2013/05/02/180485455/obama-to-pitch-immigration-overhaul-in-mexico,Chetan]

Though the role played by Latino voters in last year's U.S. presidential election gets much credit for the current

momentum for changing immigration laws and providing a path to citizenshipfor 11 million immigrants in the U.S.illegally, another reason for the change in attitudes is that stronger border protections and the recession have been disincentives to cross into theU.S. As a result, illegal immigration has declined. "With Mexico, first and foremost, they are critical to our ability to secure the border," said BenRhodes, an Obama deputy national security adviser. "All the immigration plans that have been contemplated put a focus on securing the border asan essential priority and starting point for immigration reform." Even better than a strong border is an economy that keeps people from fleeing. "Ifthe Mexican economy is growing, it forestalls the need for people to migrate to the United States to find work," Rhodes added. Eager to focus onthe economy and immigration, the administration is downplaying Pena Nieto's recent steps to end the broad access Mexico gave U.S. securityagencies to help fight drug trafficking and organized crime under his predecessor, Felipe Calderon. Still, the changes are likely to be a subject

during the two leaders' private talks. Obama said this week he wouldn't judge the new moves until he heard directly from Mexican officials. PenaNieto took office in December, and for Obamathe trip is an opportunity to take his measure of the Mexican leader early in his tenure. "It'sreally important to go there while this new president is forming his own plans and judgments about what he's going to do about the border, aboutwhere he's going to be on immigration, about where he is on trade," U.S. Chamber of Commerce President/CEO Thomas Donohue said in aninterview. The chamber long has worked to improve U.S.-Mexico trade, noting that now about 6 million U.S. jobs depend on commerce with

Mexico. Striking the right note on border security is key, Donohue said, because it is a central to winning support

in Congress for the rest of the immigration legislation. "That's what everybody wants to hear, and we have to do that in a waythat makes these guys down there feel like we're doing it in conjunction with them and for them, so we can do this thing on immigration well, sowe can expand our trade, so we can deal with our political issues as they are trying to deal with theirs," Donohue said. Still, with 33 million U.S.

residents of Mexican origin, Obama's message in Mexico is also bound to resonate in the U.S., where Latinos could
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2013/05/01/obama_eyes_higher_profile_role_on_immigration_118204.htmlhttp://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2013/05/01/obama_eyes_higher_profile_role_on_immigration_118204.htmlhttp://www.npr.org/2013/05/02/180485455/obama-to-pitch-immigration-overhaul-in-mexicohttp://www.npr.org/2013/05/02/180485455/obama-to-pitch-immigration-overhaul-in-mexicohttp://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2013/05/01/obama_eyes_higher_profile_role_on_immigration_118204.htmlhttp://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2013/05/01/obama_eyes_higher_profile_role_on_immigration_118204.html


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increase pressure on Congress to act."It helps keep these passions alive as far as an issue to promote for the

administration," said Carl Meacham, a former senior Latin America adviser on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee. But Meacham, now

director of the Americas program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, cautioned that despite some bipartisan support

to create a path to citizenship in the immigration bill, there is skepticismin Latin America. "They've been brought to thealtar so many times by different American administrations that there's a little bit of a lack of trust," he said. For Pena Nieto, Obama's visit is achance for him to showcase his country's economic gains. After suffering along with the U.S. during the recession, its economy is now growing ata better clip than that of the U.S. Per capita income has gone from an annual $7,900 two years ago to $10,146. But Diana Negroponte, a Latin

America expert at the Brookings Institution, says corruption remains endemic, human rights are still a problem, and efforts to change andimprove the judicial system have been too slow. "There is concern on our side of the border that greater help needs to be given in order forMexico to reform its system," she said. Pena Nieto's changes in the security relationship with the U.S. have prompted some U.S. officials tospeculate that the new president might be embracing the policies of his Institutional Revolutionary Party, which long has favored centralized

political and bureaucratic control. Among those watching the new steps is Sen. Patrick Leahy, D-Vt., who has held up $228 million sought by theObama administration for Mexico under a security cooperation agreement. Under the agreement, known as the Merida Initiative, Congress has

already given Mexico more than $1.9 billion in aid since 2008. But Leahy, chairman of the Senate Appropriations

subcommittee that oversees the State Department budget, has been a critic of how the money has been used

and with the results."Congress has been asked for a significant new investment, but it's not clear what the new Mexicangovernment's intensions are," Leahy said in a statement to The Associated Press. "We're in a period of uncertainty until we know enough to be

able to reset that part of our relationship. I'm not ready to sign off on more money without a lot more details."


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AT: No Obama Push

Obama is pressuring Congress now and will continue to do so

The Hill 5-12[White House strategy for winning immigration fight comes with some risks, May 12th, 2013,

http://thehill.com/homenews/administration/299129-white-house-strategy-for-immigration-win-comes-with-some-risks,Chetan]

The White House plans to use an inside-outside game to pressure Congressas it seeks a political victory forPresident Obama on immigration reform.The inside game includes meetings with key stakeholder groups, such

as one this week with Asian American and Pacific Islander leaders. In recent days, the meetings have gained

steam with Obama holding at least one meeting per week, according to White House guidance of the president's

schedule.It also includes Obamassecond-term charm offensive with members of Congress, in which Obama,who needs an immigration win to help solidify his second term legacy, has used dinner dates and golf outings toengage with his political opponents.We want to make sure we dont lose any Democrats and work withRepublicans to move this forward, one senior administration official said.At the same time, Obama is expected topressure Congress from the outside by hitting the road in the next few months, one administration official said.

Obama will crisscross the country in the coming months to build public pressure on Congress, emphasizing theneed for a comprehensive immigration billand a path to citizenship for the more than 11 million undocumentedimmigrants in the country.
http://thehill.com/homenews/administration/299129-white-house-strategy-for-immigration-win-comes-with-some-riskshttp://thehill.com/homenews/administration/299129-white-house-strategy-for-immigration-win-comes-with-some-riskshttp://thehill.com/homenews/administration/299129-white-house-strategy-for-immigration-win-comes-with-some-riskshttp://thehill.com/homenews/administration/299129-white-house-strategy-for-immigration-win-comes-with-some-risks


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AT: Poison Pill

No poison pillGOP welcomes Obamas efforts and his PC is key for Senate passage

The Hill 5-12[White House strategy for winning immigration fight comes with some risks, May 12th, 2013,http://thehill.com/homenews/administration/299129-white-house-strategy-for-immigration-win-comes-with-some-

risks,Chetan]

Cal Jillson, a professor of political scienceat Southern Methodist University agreed, saying Obama has to keep a comfortable distance from theissue. Its a delicate thing because conservatives in the House are allergic to Obama, Jillson said. A full court press might not serve him well so hes got to figure

out exactly what his posture will be.Jillson argues the inside game, however, could help carry the legislation over the top in

the Senate, with 70 or more Senators voting in support of it. Its sensible for the president to work carefully

withpersuadable Republicans to get this done, Jillson said. The difficulty he faces is the more he stakes his po litical capital on this issue, the morethe Tea Party conservatives in the House wont let him have this. The real question is how forward can he be without raising the temperature of Republicans in the

House," he added. Jillson and other observers predict that if the Senate does pass the legislation, itll put some pressure on the

House to follow suit. Even Republicans agree that Obamasefforts to reach across the aisle might help pass

immigration . But it also might have come a little too late. Its probably leading to more fruitful d iscussions, Mackowiak said. But its one of those thingsthat probably should have happened in his first or second year. You have to plant those seeds, water it and watch them grow.
http://thehill.com/homenews/administration/299129-white-house-strategy-for-immigration-win-comes-with-some-riskshttp://thehill.com/homenews/administration/299129-white-house-strategy-for-immigration-win-comes-with-some-riskshttp://thehill.com/homenews/administration/299129-white-house-strategy-for-immigration-win-comes-with-some-riskshttp://thehill.com/homenews/administration/299129-white-house-strategy-for-immigration-win-comes-with-some-risks


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AT: PC Not Key

Presidential leadership shapes the agendaKuttner 11(Robert, Senior FellowDemos and Co-editorAmerican Prospect, Barack Obama's Theory ofPower, The American Prospect, 5-16,http://prospect.org/cs/articles?article=barack_obamas_theory_of_power)

As the political scientist Richard Neustadt observed in his classic work, Presidential Power, a book that had great influence on President John F.

Kennedy, the essence of a presidents power is the power to persuade.Because our divided constitutional system does not allow

the president to lead by commanding,presidents amass power by making strategic choices about when to use the latent

authority of the presidency to move public and elite opinion and then use that added prestige as clout to move Congress . In one of

Neustadts classic case studies, Harry Truman, a president widely considered a lame duck, nonetheless persuaded the broad public and aRepublican Congress in 1947-1948 that the Marshall Plan was a worthy idea. As Neustadt and Burns both observed, though an American chief

executive is weak by constitutional design, a president possesses several points of leverage . He can play an effective

outside game, motivating and shaping public sentiment, making clear the differences between his values and those of his opposition, andusing popular support to box in his opponentsand move them in his direction. He can complement the outside bully pulpitwith a nimble inside game, uniting hislegislativeparty, bestowing or withholding benefits on opposition legislators,forcing them to take awkward votes, and using the veto. He can also enlistthe support of interest groups to pressure Congress, and

use media to validate his framing of choices. Done well, all of this signals leadership that often moves the public agenda

Political capital is finite and drives decision-makingkey to agenda successSchier 9, Professor of Poliitcal Science at Carleton, (Steven, "Understanding the Obama Presidency," The Forum:Vol. 7: Iss. 1, Berkely Electronic Press,http://www.bepress.com/forum/vol7/iss1/art10)

In additional to formal powers, a presidentsinformal power is situationally derived and highly variable . Informal

power is a function of the political capital presidents amass and deplete as they operate in office. Paul Light definesseveral components of political capital: party support of the president in Congress, public approval of the presidential conduct of his job, the

Presidents electoral margin and patronage appointments (Light 1983, 15). RichardNeustadts concept of a presidents professionalreputation likewise figures into his political capital. Neustadt defines this as the impressions in the Washington community aboutthe skill and will with which he puts [his formal powers] to use (Neustadt 1990, 185). In the wake of 9/11, George W. Bushspolitical capital surged, and both the public and Washington elites granted him a broad ability to prosecute the war

on terror. By the later stages of Bushs troubled second term, beset by a lengthy and unpopular occupation of Iraqand an aggressive Democratic Congress, he found that his political capital had shrunk. Obamas informal powerswill prove variable, not stable, as is always the case for presidents. Nevertheless, he entered office with a formidablestore of political capital. His solid electoral victory means he initially will receive high public support and strongbackingfrom fellow Congressional partisans, a combination that will allow him much leeway in his presidential appointmentsand with his policy agenda. Obama probably enjoys the prospect of a happier honeymoon during his first year than did George W. Bush,who entered office amidst continuing controversy over the 2000 election outcome. Presidents usually employ power to disrupt the political orderthey inherit in order to reshape it according to their own agendas. Stephen Skowronek argues that presidents disrupt systems, reshape political

landscapes, and pass to successors leadership challenges that are different from the ones just faced (Skowronek 1997, 6). Given theirlimited time in office and the hostile political alignments often present in Washington policymaking networks andamong the electorate,presidents must force political change if they are to enact their agendas. In recent decades,Washington power structures have become more entrenched and elaborate (Drucker 1995) while presidential powers through increased use of

executive orders and legislative delegation (Howell 2003)have also grown. The presidency has more powers in the early 21st

century but also faces more entrenched coalitions of interests, lawmakers, and bureaucrats whose agendasoften differ from that of the president. This is an invitation for an energetic presidentand that seems to describe Barack

Obamato engage in major ongoing battles to impose his preferences .

Presidents perceive their capital as finiteour theory is true in practiceMarshall and Prins 11, BRYAN W. MARSHALL Miami University BRANDON C. PRINS University ofTennessee & Howard H. Baker, Jr. Center for Public Policy Power or Posturing? Policy Availability andCongressional Influence on U.S. Presidential Decisions to Use Force Presidential Studies Quarterly 41, no. 3(September) 2011
http://prospect.org/cs/articles?article=barack_obamas_theory_of_powerhttp://www.bepress.com/forum/vol7/iss1/art10http://www.bepress.com/forum/vol7/iss1/art10http://prospect.org/cs/articles?article=barack_obamas_theory_of_power


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We argue that the more important effect of Congress occurs because presidents anticipate how the use of force may

affect the larger congressional environment in which they inevitably have to operate(Brul, Marshall, and Prins 2010). Itmay be true that presidents consider the chances that Congress will react to a specific use of force withcountervailing tools, but even more importantly they anticipate the likelihood that a foreign conflict may damage (oradvantage) theirpolitical fortunes elsewherein essence, the presidential calculus to use force factors in how such actions might shape

their ability to achieve legislative priorities. To be clear,presidents can and do choose to use force and press for legislative

initiatives in Congress. Taking unilateral actions in foreign policy does not preclude the president from working the legislative process on

Capitol Hill. However, political capital is finite so spending resources in one area lessens what the president can

bring to bear in other areas. That is, presidents consider the congressional environment in their decision to use force because their succ

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Politics Disadvantage - Immigration - Georgia 2013