Brovero-Lundeen Politics Impact Supplement

Gonzaga Debate InstituteBrovero-Lundeen Politics Impact Supplement

84

Politics Impact Supplement

1NCPolitics 1NC Shell

A. Obama will win Trade Promotion Authority now momentumNeedham, The Hill, 6-26-13[Vicki, The Hill, Trade agenda pushed by leading business group, http://thehill.com/blogs/on-the-money/1005-trade/307937-trade-agenda-pushed-by-leading-business-group, accessed 7-13-13, AFB] A leading business group is urging the Obama administration and Congress to ride a wave of recent momentum toward pursuing and completing a vast array of trade agreements that could boost U.S. jobs and economic growth. The Business Roundtable on Wednesday specifically pushed for the completion trade promotion authority (TPA) as the United States embarks on trade talks with the European Union and continues discussions on the 12-nation Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), in a letter to newly confirmed U.S. Trade Representative Michael Froman."For its part, Business Roundtable is working to educate leaders in Washington and people around the country on the importance of trade, U.S. trade agreements and TPA to enhancing U.S. growth and jobs," said Doug Oberhelman, chairman of BRT's International Engagement Committee."Reflecting this, a key trade priority is passing updated TPA legislation," he said. He said BRT recently launched the Trade Benefits America coalition with other business groups, which represent the manufacturing, services and agricultural sectors.Froman told The Hill earlier this week that the White House is ready to engage with Congress on fast-track authority legislation, of which a mix of Republican and Democratic lawmakers have also expressed support. "With passage of the three FTAs, Russia PNTR, and several other trade measures during the last Congress, we see solid bipartisan support and momentum for promoting additional trade initiatives during this Congress," Oberhelman wrote.

B. Plan spends political capital

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C. Internal link Political capital key to Trade Promotion Authority failure collapses trade liberalizationHadar, Business Times Singapore Washington Correspondent, 7-4-13[Leon T., The Business Times Singapore, TPP opponents in US gain momentum; The Tea-Party contingency among GOP lawmakers in House may spell trouble for Obama's trade liberalisation agenda, Lexis, accessed 7-13-13]

Indeed, during his last State of the Union address, Mr Obama was promoting an ambitious agenda - some would even describe it as "historic" - to advance trade liberalisation, pledging to launch negotiations to form two huge free-trade areas, the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) with America's trade partners in the Pacific region and the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP), a free-trade agreement with the European Union.The TPP negotiations consist of Singapore, New Zealand, Canada, Australia, Vietnam, Malaysia, Brunei, Peru, Chile, Mexico (and hopefully Japan), that altogether have a combined gross domestic product (GDP) of around US$11 trillion. And, according to estimates, the TPP could help grow the American economy by US$76 billion annually, while the TTIP could help increase the US GDP by US$1 trillion per year.The problem is that between these two major trade deals and Mr Obama's signature stands the US Congress where the balance of power between the two parties could create obstacles for him on the road to the TPP and the TTIP.And here lies the political-legislative paradox: Many of the Democrats who love the president also hate the two trade deals; and vice versa: Many of the Republicans who hate the Democratic president also love the free trade agreements he is proposing.In order to start getting things moving on Capitol Hill, Mr Obama would need to have this same lawmakers grant him the so-called Trade Promotion Authority (TPA) aka "fast-track". Under "fast-track", Congress agrees to give up some of its authority to conclude trade agreements and allows the president to be the chief player in the process.Hence, lawmakers hold a straight up or down vote on a trade agreement the president concludes and are not allowed to offer amendments. That basically ensures that Congress has to approve or reject the trade deal that the White House negotiates with another government and makes it impossible for the lawmakers to make any changes in the final agreement.But there is a catch. The TPA legislation provides for a framework under which the president negotiates an agreement. And the proponents of "fair trade" have insisted that they would not support granting the president a TPA unless he agrees to press for such goals as labour and environmental rules as well as commitments to help retrain workers whose jobs are lost as a result of free-trade deals, while Republican free traders tend to oppose including such requirements in the TPA.The Senate and the House of Representatives are scheduled to debate TPA legislation this month, and there are already some signs that "fair trade" proponents are not in a rush to support it. Even in the Senate where a large number of Republicans and Democrats are in favour of granting Mr Obama a "fast-track" authority, two leading Democrats, Senator Sherrod Brown of Ohio and Senator Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts, have expressed reservations about the president's trade agenda, and especially about the negotiations over the TPP.Mr Brown and Ms Warren and other critics have pointed out to the secrecy under which the TPP talks have been taking place, and allege that corporate interests - as opposed to public interest groups - would have more influence on the negotiations."I am deeply concerned about the transparency record of the US Trade Representative and with one ongoing trade agreement, in particular the Trans-Pacific Partnership," Ms Warren said on the Senate floor last week. "I have heard the argument that transparency would undermine the Trade Representative's policy to complete the trade agreement because public opposition would be significant," Ms Warren explained."In other words, if people knew what was going on, they would stop it. This argument is exactly backwards. If transparency would lead to widespread public opposition to a trade agreement, then that trade agreement should not be the policy of the United States."In fact, Ms Warren was one of the three Democratic senators (Joe Manchin of West Virginia and Carl Levin of Michigan, and one independent senator, Bernie Sanders of Vermont) who voted "no" during the confirmation of Michael Froman as the new US Trade Representative.But the main battles over the TPA legislation and over trade policy, in general, are expected to take place in the Republican-controlled House where lawmakers from both parties tend to project more populist and protectionist sentiment than their colleagues in the Senate.Free-market positionsWhile Republicans in the House tended to be more inclined support free-market positions and, by extension, free trade policies, than Democratic lawmakers, the large Tea-Party contingency among GOP lawmakers in the House may spell trouble for Obama's plan. More specifically, many of the anti-Obama Republicans may not be willing to cede to the hated White House their authority on trade policy for the TPA.That could hurt the liberalisation agenda that many of them support by sabotaging the chances of getting the TPP and the TTIP approved. It would also prevent President Obama from becoming one of the nation's great trade policy presidents. Be warned: it's going to be a rough road for trade deals.

D. Impact Trans-Pacific Partnership 1. TPP key to US leadership that checks protectionism Suominen, German Marshall Fund of the United States resident fellow, 12(Kati, 7-6-12, Foreign Policy, America the Absent, http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2012/07/06/america_the_absent?page=full, accessed 7-7-12)

In the 20th century, beginning with the creation of the Bretton Woods system in 1944, America's great contribution was to champion an economic paradigm and set of institutions that promoted open markets and economic stability around the world. The successive Groups of Five, Seven, and Eight, first formed in the early 1970s, helped coordinate macroeconomic policies among the world's leading economies and combat global financial imbalances that burdened U.S. trade politics. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) spread the Washington Consensus across Asia and Latin America, and shepherded economies in transition toward capitalism. Eight multilateral trade rounds brought down barriers to global commerce, culminating in the establishment of the World Trade Organization (WTO) in 1995. Meanwhile, a wave of bank deregulation and financial liberalization began in the United States and proliferated around the world, making credit more available and affordable while propelling consumption and entrepreneurship the world over. The U.S. dollar, the world's venerable reserve currency, economized global transactions and fueled international trade. Central bank independence spread from Washington to the world and helped usher in the Great Moderation, which has produced a quarter-century of low and steady inflation around the world. Globalization was not wished into being: It was the U.S.-led order that generated prosperity unimaginable only a few decades ago. Since 1980, global GDP has quadrupled, world trade has grown more than sixfold, the stock of foreign direct investment has shot up by 20 times, and portfolio capital flows have surged to almost $200 trillion annually, roughly four times the size of the global economy. Economic reforms and global economic integration helped vibrant emerging markets emerge: The "Asian Tigers" (Hong Kong, Singapore, South Korea, and Taiwan) that boomed in the 1980s were joined in the 1990s by the awakening giants of Brazil, China, and India. It was the United States that quarterbacked the play, brokering differences among nations and providing the right mix of global public goods: a universal reserve currency, an open-trade regime, deep financial markets, and vigorous economic growth. Trade liberalization alone paid off handsomely, adding $1 trillion annually to the postwar U.S. economy. Talk about American decline notwithstanding, the economic order created by the United States persists. In fact, at first blush, it appears to have only been reinforced in the past few years. New institutions such as the G-20, a forum for the world's leading economies, and the Financial Stability Board, a watchdog for the international financial system, are but sequels to U.S.-created entities: the Group of Five and the Financial Stability Forum. Investors still view America as a financial safe haven, and the dollar remains the world's lead currency. Open markets have survived, and 1930s-style protectionism has not materialized. The WTO continues to resolve trade disputes and recently welcomed Russia as its 154th member, while the mission and resources of the Bretton Woods twins -- the World Bank and IMF -- have only expanded. No country has pulled out of these institutions; instead, emerging nations such as China and India are demanding greater power at the table. Countries have opted in, not out, of the American-led order, reflecting a reality of global governance: There are no rival orders that can yet match this one's promise of mutual economic gains. Still, while the American order is peerless, it is also imperiled. The deepening European debt crisis, discord over national policies to restore growth, and the all-but-dead Doha Development Round of WTO negotiations speak to the failures of the global economy's existing instruments to manage 21st-century challenges. Instead of coordinating policies, leading countries are trapped in a prisoner's dilemma, elbowing for an edge in world trade and jockeying for power on the world stage. Tensions simmer over issues such as exchange-rate manipulation, capital controls, creeping protectionism, and financial nationalism. Right at the moment when we most need to shore up the troubled global economic order, America -- the architect of this very order -- is failing to lead. Even as the United States remains pivotal to global growth, U.S. corporations -- the engines of the American economy -- are stifled by taxes, regulations, and policy uncertainty. Gaping fiscal deficits in the United States are undermining the dollar, exacerbating trade deficits, and undercutting U.S. economic dynamism and credibility in world affairs, but political posturing has obstructed the country's path to solvency. Earlier this week, the IMF warned that if political deadlock takes America to the so-called fiscal cliff of automatic tax hikes and spending cuts in January 2013, it could have a devastating impact on the U.S. and world economies. No wonder America's image as the global economic superpower is receding around the world. Europe's travails, meanwhile, are reducing U.S. companies' exports and overseas profits, threatening America's recovery. And yet Congress has balked at boosting the IMF's resources to fight the eurozone crisis while the Obama administration has deflected responsibility, framing the crisis as Europe's to manage. It has fallen to countries such as Brazil, China, India, Mexico, and Russia to instead build the firewall that will shield the rest of the world from Europe. The welcome momentum in negotiations between the United States and Pacific Rim countries on the Trans-Pacific Partnership free trade agreement does not undo over three years of drift in U.S. trade policy that has jeopardized the very global trading system that the United States built and powered in the postwar era. The only trade deals that the Obama administration has passed -- with Colombia, Panama, and South Korea -- were launched and negotiated by the Bush administration. The world is now facing a triple threat of global economic instability, divisions among top powers, and a global leadership vacuum. This perfect storm could produce a world disorder of mercurial financial markets, widening global imbalances, spreading state capitalism, and beggar-thy-neighbor protectionism -- a scenario with a sorry past and few safe exits. In the late 1940s, a new world order arose because of American strength, vision, and leadership, not because global governance was in vogue. Leadership was never easy: Resistance from allies, protectionist pressures at home, and resource-draining wars all stood in the way. But capitalism spread, trade and financial markets were liberalized, and emerging-market crises were defeated. Global economic integration forged ahead. Today, American leadership is again essential. China prioritizes mercantilism over multilateralism, and emerging nations have yet to fully step up to the plate when it comes to global governance, while Europe and Japan are neither able nor willing to lead. In placing their faith in multilateralism, liberal institutionalists often fail to realize that the world economic order is built on American primacy and power, and Washington's willingness to project it. To lead abroad, the United States must reform at home by imposing ironclad fiscal discipline, cutting taxes and red tape for businesses, and locking in long-term policies -- summoning the private sector to reform schools and rebuild infrastructure, for instance -- that harness the productivity of America's future generations. Abroad, the United States needs to focus on pre-empting instability and integrating the global economy. It should push the IMF to address financial risks before they mushroom into catastrophes, revise the multilateral trade regime to allow for fast deals among a critical mass of members rather than agonizing, decade-long talks requiring the consent of the full membership, and work toward unfettered global financial markets -- all the while deepening access to U.S. goods, services, and investment around the world. A Trans-Pacific Partnership agreement and a transatlantic free trade pact are low-hanging fruits that can jump-start global growth without any new stimulus dollars. The quintessential challenge facing U.S. policymakers is to convince other nations to buy into a rules-based order rather than respond to the siren calls of currency wars and capital controls. For example, with most emerging economies uneasy about Beijing's trade and foreign policies, Washington must incentivize others to take the high ground and strengthen investor protections, enforce intellectual property rights, and adhere to trade rules. With others playing by the rules of the game, a misbehaving China would be turned into a pariah. A stable, integrated, and growing world economy serves our national interests. But such a world is America's to make.

2. Protectionism escalates to global warCho, Professor Chicago-Kent law professor, 7[Sungjoon, Illinois Institute of Technology "Doha's Development," 25 Berkeley J. Int'l L. 165]

Second, the mercantilist nature of the current competitive regionalism tends to evoke the strikingly similar phenomenon of the interwar period, which precipitated economic balkanization and led to the outbreak of the Second World War. n182 Highly preferential regional trading blocs instituted worldwide during this period eliminated the political space needed for multilateral economic cooperation and instead nurtured the Hobbesean struggle among major economic powers. n183 The interwar regionalist competition is a textbook [*195] example of the prisoners' dilemma. Beggar-thy-neighbor trade policies entailed a global economic crisis that eventually exacerbated, not reduced, the evils of the Great Depression. Out of this history comes an undeniable historical lesson: the fragmented global trading system is vulnerable to a chain of unfortunate events such as tension, hostility, and violence. Considering that recent trade policies are inextricably linked to security and other foreign affairs concerns, n184 this lesson should be taken seriously lest we repeat the same historical errors and are punished for them.

Uniqueness

Pass Now

Will pass bipartisan support nowMurphy, U.S. Chamber of Commerce International Affairs vice president, 6-14-13[John G., He is responsible for representing the Chamber before the administration, Congress, and foreign officials as he directs advocacy efforts to open international markets for U.S. exports and investment, Free Enterprise, Solve the Trade Puzzle with Trade Promotion Authority, http://www.freeenterprise.com/international/solve-trade-puzzle-trade-promotion-authority?utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=sitewide_feed&utm_source=0, accessed 7-14-13, AFB]

Senate Finance Committee Chairman Max Baucus (D-MT) wants a bipartisan bill introduced as soon as possible. His colleague, Ranking Member Orrin Hatch (R-UT) has called it a top priority for years. Staff to House Ways and Means Committee Chairman Dave Camp (R-MI) and Ranking Member Sander Levin (D-MI) have been working with their Senate counterparts for weeks to produce such a bill.Trade Promotion Authority (TPA) may be the sleeper bipartisan priority of the 113th Congress. Driving home this point, Roll Call on June 13 published an insightful column by Senators Rob Portman (R-OH) and Maria Cantwell (D-WA) calling TPA A Bipartisan Opportunity for Jobs:From the Buckeye State to the Evergreen State, Americans want their elected officials to focus on supporting economic growth. And, wouldnt it be nice if Democrats and Republicans worked together for a change?Trade Promotion Authority offers us exactly this opportunity: a bipartisan economic initiative that will support American job creation and keep our nation competitive in the global economy while not costing taxpayers any money.We were pleased to hear the presidents recent nominee to the post of U.S. trade representative, Mike Froman, embrace TPA, a power requested by every president since Franklin D. Roosevelt, in his Finance Committee confirmation hearing. It seems that the president who included a request for TPA in his 2013 trade agenda is serious about pursuing new trade agreements. Thats good news for our economy.

TPA has bipartisan supportSenators Portman & Cantwell, 6-13-13[Rob, R-Ohio, Maria, D-Washington, Roll Call, A Bipartisan Opportunity for Jobs, http://www.rollcall.com/news/a_bipartisan_opportunity_for_jobs_commentary-225603-1.html, accessed 7-13-13, AFB]

From the Buckeye State to the Evergreen State, Americans want their elected officials to focus on supporting economic growth. And, wouldnt it be nice if Democrats and Republicans worked together for a change?Trade Promotion Authority offers us exactly this opportunity: a bipartisan economic initiative that will support American job creation and keep our nation competitive in the global economy while not costing taxpayers any money.We were pleased to hear the presidents recent nominee to the post of U.S. trade representative, Mike Froman, embrace TPA, a power requested by every president since Franklin D. Roosevelt, in his Finance Committee confirmation hearing. It seems that the president who included a request for TPA in his 2013 trade agenda is serious about pursuing new trade agreements. Thats good news for our economy.

House GOP support nowInside U.S. Trade, 7-5-13[Majority Of House Republican Freshmen Back TPA, Trade Initiatives, Lexis, accessed 7-13-13, AFB]

All but one of the House Republican freshmen last week expressed their strong support for the Obama administration's "free and fair trade agenda" aimed at opening markets around the world, including passage of a new fast-track negotiating authority bill.The 35 freshmen, led by Rep. Rodney Davis (R-IL), wrote in a letter to new U.S. Trade Representative Michael Froman that they "stand ready" to work with the Obama administration on the Trans-Pacific Partnership, the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership and the plurilateral services agreement being negotiated by selected World Trade Organization members, among other trade initiatives."These negotiations provide an opportunity to include strong, ambitious, and enforceable provisions that would eliminate tariff and non-tariff barriers for U.S. exports of goods, services and agricultural products, as well as ensure strong intellectual property (IP) protections," they said in the letter."Lastly, we look forward to moving Trade Promotion Authority (TPA), which clarifies the executive-legislative partnership on trade negotiations," the letter said. The freshmen pledge to work with Froman to "continue building upon the bipartisan support for trade that we have seen in Congress over the past few years," according to the letter.

Vote Coming

Tough vote comingHeritage Foundation press release, 7-13-13[US Official News, Washington: An Investment Treaty with China: Dont Hold Your Breath, Lexis, accessed 7-13-13]

Problem #3 with a BIT is American politics. The main China issues that the U.S. Congress focuses onthe bilateral trade deficit, currency manipulation, and other trade distortionsare not likely to be addressed in an investment treaty. Further, Congress does not trust China to implement its pledges. China is not just any economic partner. A U.S.China BIT is going to be debatedhotly.The Senate already faces politically painful votes on Trade Promotion Authority (probably this year), the Trans-Pacific Partnership (probably next year), and, the Trans-Atlantic Partnership (possibly 2015). It would be very dubious politics to jump China ahead of American friends in the trade queue. But multiple political bloodlettings in a single year is almost as difficult to see as a pro-China vote during the 2016 presidential campaign.

Vote soonRiley, Heritage Foundation Trade Policy senior policy analyst, 7-12-13[Bryan, Heritage Blogs, Trade Promotion Authority Should Mean Authority to Promote TradePeriod, http://blog.heritage.org/2013/07/12/trade-promotion-authority-should-mean-authority-to-promote-trade-period/, accessed 7-13-13, AFB]

Theres a good chance Congress will consider legislation this summer to extend trade promotion authority (TPA) to President Obama. If it does, lawmakers should pay especially close attention to the wording of the bill.TPA is the legislative vehicle that allows the President to negotiate with other countries on beneficial trade agreements. The purpose of trade promotion authority is, obviously, to promote trade. If properly designed, TPA is an effective way to expand trade and economic freedom. However, a poorly worded TPA bill could allow implementing legislation for future trade agreements to be used for other purposes.For example, under the last extension of TPA, Congress agreed to consider legislation that implemented trade agreements negotiated by the President on an up-or-down vote. This implementing legislation could include changes in laws that were necessary or appropriate to implement such trade agreement or agreements, either repealing or amending existing laws or providing new statutory authority.When the South KoreaU.S. free trade agreement (KORUS) came up for a vote two years ago, the Obama Administration used this language as justification to try to attach Trade Adjustment Assistance (TAA)which provides federal aid to those supposedly hurt by tradeto the implementing legislation for KORUS. At the time, TAA supporters argued that such assistance was necessary and appropriate.Trade expert Phil Levy observed at the time that TPA was hard to come by even in the best of circumstances. What chance would it have now, if it is interpreted as giving any White House the right to attach controversial and unrelated spending measures in a protected way?This is exactly why it is important to clarify how TPA works. Every U.S. President should have the authority to negotiate beneficial trade agreements. However, TPA was never intended to be a blank check. Congress should make it clear that future trade agreements submitted for implementation under TPA cannot be hijacked as a vehicle on which to attach extraneous provisions.

Hearings on TPA comingU.S House Committee of Ways and Means press release, 7-12-13[US Official News, Chairman Camp Announces Hearing on President Obamas Trade Policy Agenda with U.S. Trade Representative Michael Froman, Lexis, AFB]

Chairman Camp Announces Hearing on President Obamas Trade Policy Agenda with U.S. Trade Representative Michael Froman1100 Longworth House Office Building at 9:00 AMJul 18, 2013Focus Of The HearingThe hearing will provide an opportunity to explore with Ambassador Froman current and future trade issues such as: (1) developing and passing of Trade Promotion Authority legislation; (2) seeking to conclude a successful Trans-Pacific Partnership agreement this year; (3) negotiating with the European Union for a comprehensive and ambitious trade and investment agreement; (4) negotiating a Trade in International Services Agreement that increases access for all sectors of our economy; (5) improving our important trade relationship with major emerging economies like China, India and Brazil, and addressing their trade barriers; (6) ensuring appropriate trade enforcement efforts; (7) advancing WTO negotiations, including post-Doha issues at the WTO such as Information Technology Agreement (ITA) expansion, a trade facilitation agreement and an agreement for trade in environmental goods and services; (8) negotiating Bilateral Investment Treaties (BITs) with China and India and exploring new BITs and investment opportunities; and (9) establishing long-term, closer ties with important trading partners.Hearing AdvisoryChairman Camp Announces Hearing on President Obamas Trade Policy Agenda with U.S. Trade Representative Michael FromanFor more information please visit: http://waysandmeans.house.gov/

AT No Obama Push

Obama making serious push on trade new USTR provesIchniowski, Engineering News-Record, 7-1-13[Tom, New USTR Froman Has Busy Agenda Ahead, p. 1, Lexis, accessed 7-13-13, AFB]

As former White House aide Michael Froman begins his new job as U.S. trade representative, he faces a full agenda, including two major multilateral trade negotiations that will have an impact on U.S. construction-equipment makers and companies in a wide range of other industries.Froman, who was sworn in as U.S. trade representative (USTR) on June 21, had been assistant to the president and deputy national security adviser for international economic affairs. The Senate confirmed him two days earlier, by a strong 93-4 vote.Bill Lane, Caterpillar Inc. senior director for global government affairs, says, We may be about to embark on the most ambitious trade agenda since the early 1990s, when we did the [General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade] Uruguay Round and the North American Free Trade Agreement.Among the priorities facing Froman and his USTR team are trade talks with the European Union that are set to begin on July 8 in Washington, D.C.Nick Yaksich, Association of Equipment Manufacturers vice president for government and industry relations, says the EU negotiations will be critical for U.S. heavy-equipment manufacturers.Yaksich says technical issues will be particularly important topics, such as the harmonization of equipment standards and the development of common certification benchmarks between the two sides.Lane says U.S. trade barriers in Europe tend to be low, but the trade is so large that even removing low trade barriers ? will have an important impact on both economies. Overall U.S. exports to the EU last year totaled $458 billion, making it the countrys largest export market, according to the White House.Tariffs could be an important topic in trade talks. Lane notes that many European countries tariffs on U.S.-made heavy construction equipment are zero, but tariffs are imposed on U.S.-produced engines and other components, such as bearings. Those factors combine to make U.S. heavy-equipment makers average tariffs in Europe about 2%, he says.Though 2% may seem small, Lane says Caterpillar has a long-standing goal that, worldwide, we would like to be in a situation where none of our customers have to pay an extra tax to buy our products. In this case, an extra tax is tariffs.The other important negotiations are the ongoing Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) talks among the U.S., other North American countries and Asian nations. The U.S. joined the TPP negotiations in 2009, and, so far, the talks have gone through 17 rounds.Lane says many countries involved in the TPP talks have eliminated tariffs on heavy equipment. He says that, for Caterpillar, one of the biggest benefits of those negotiations is it gives us a chance to modernize NAFTA.He says that, for example, NAFTA has a very arcane rule of origin, which is a yardstick for determining whether a product, including components that may be produced in other countries, can be classified for trade-regulation purposes as made in the U.S.More broadly, Lane says, for U.S. trade officials, the key to everything that lies ahead is having Congress provide the president with trade promotion authority (TPA). That mechanism, formerly called fast track authority, gives the administration the ability to negotiate trade deals and have Congress review them quickly.TPA expired in 2007. Froman said in testimony prepared for his June 6 confirmation hearing before the Senate Finance Committee that he would engage with Congress to renew TPA. He added, TPA is a critical tool. I look forward to working with you to craft a bill that achieves our shared goals.Architectural and engineering firms are monitoring negotiations the Obama administration proposed in January with the EU and 18 other countries. U.S. firms in services industries hope the negotiations will expand their overseas markets. A USTR official says that the negotiations are under way and progressing positively.Senate Finance Chairman Max Baucus (D-Mont.) called Froman the right man for the job at just the right time. Industry officials also are happy to see Froman as USTR. Yaksich says AEM is pleased that he has experience with past free-trade agreements and, therefore, understands the benefits of [those] agreements that take place.Lane notes that Caterpillar worked with Froman on U.S. free-trade agreements all of which went into force in 2012 with Panama, Colombia and South Korea as well as last years measure establishing permanent normal trade relations with Russia.Lane says, What we quickly learned is, if Mike Froman is involved in the effort, the White House is serious and is making the issue a priority.

Obama is starting talks over TPALeigh, ExecutiveGov, 6/25/13[Elizabeth, ExecutiveGov.com, Michael Froman Speaks on Fast Track, Upcoming Trade Talks, http://www.executivegov.com/2013/06/froman-speaks-on-fast-track-upcoming-trade-talks-exports/#sthash.mNDhrgch.dpuf, accessed: 7/8/13, ML]

U.S. Trade Representative Michael Froman revealed that the Obama administration is ready to discuss with lawmakers a tool to fast track trade negotiations, The Hill newspaper reported Monday.Vicki Needham writes there was a negotiating authority that allowed trade deals to move through without congressional amendment but this lapsed during President George W. Bushs reign.Talks focused on resurrecting the authority have surfaced as the U.S. prepares to broker a $5 trillion trade deal with the European Union in two weeks.

Obama administration looking to negotiate over TPANeedham, The Hill, 6/24/13[Vicki, The Hill Froman: Obama ready to engage with Congress on fast trackhttp://thehill.com/blogs/on-the-money/1005-trade/307503-president-ready-to-engage-with-congress-on-fast-track#ixzz2YUeTgxhy, accessed: 7/8/13, ML]

President Obama is ready to work with Congress to win fast-track trade negotiating authority, U.S. Trade Representative Michael Froman told The Hill on Monday in an exclusive interview.Froman said the negotiating authority is a critical tool but doesnt need to be in place when the U.S. begins talks with the European Union on a $5 trillion trade deal in two weeks. Still, he said the Obama administration is ready to engage with lawmakers to hash out the authority, which lapsed during former President George W. Bushs administration and would allow trade deals to move through Congress without amendments It will be tougher for Froman to negotiate the EU deal, as well as the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) with Japan and 11 other countries, without fast-track authority. Trading partners are more reluctant to make concessions if they believe a trade deal negotiated by the administration will later be changed by Congress. EU leaders have said they are not concerned about the lack of trade promotion authority because they expect it to get done soon. Froman said Obama is committed to working with Congress on trade and suggested several times in the interview that one of his focuses will be on improving the offices working relationship with lawmakers. I think the one thing we can do a better job of is explaining what we are doing in terms of briefing members of Congress so that they, representing their constituents, can reflect the views of the American public, he told The Hill in his one of his first interviews since he was sworn in on Friday.

Obama wants TPA Froman confirmedInside US-China Trade, 6/12/13[Froman Says Obama Wants TPA Renewal; Pledges To Work With Congress, Lexis, accessed: 7/8/13, ML]

U.S. Trade Representative nominee Michael Froman on June 6 testified at his confirmation hearing that President Obama wants to extend Trade Promotion Authority (TPA) and is requesting its renewal. But he stopped short of saying that the administration would develop a specific proposal laying out its priorities for a TPA bill.Senate Finance Committee Chairman Max Baucus (D-MT) and other committee members said they consider Froman's remarks to be a formal request for TPA, also known as "fast-track" authority, by the president.After the confirmation hearing, Baucus said he had not received an official written request from Obama for fast-track. But he said the fact that Froman testified that the president wants fast-track authority "is good enough" to be considered a presidential request.Asked by Sen. Ron Wyden (D-OR) if there would be a TPA proposal from the administration, Froman responded: "I think we'll have to work through what format [the administration's] engagement [on the fast-track bill] takes."He added that the administration's intention is "to engage with this committee and engage with the House Ways and Means Committee as you work through TPA issues."Froman, however, also did not commit to a specific timetable for when the administration wants action on a fast-track bill, even after he was asked by Sen. Rob Portman (R-OH) whether he wants to work to get a new TPA bill approved before the end of the year."We'd like to get the TPA done as soon as possible," Froman responded. "We are ready to engage; we are ready to work with the committee."

US Trade Rep will work with Congress on TPAReuters, 6-6-13[USTR nominee Froman promises push for trade promotion authority http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/06/06/us-usa-trade-nominee-idUSBRE9550WL20130606, accessed 7-14-13, AFB]

(Reuters) - President Barack Obama's nominee to be U.S. trade representative on Thursday pledged to work with leaders of the Senate Finance Committee to craft major trade legislation needed by the White House to win approval of trade deals."If confirmed, I will engage with you to renew Trade Promotion Authority. TPA is a critical tool. I look forward to working with you to craft a bill that achieves our shared goals," Mike Froman, currently the White House international economic affairs adviser, said at his confirmation hearing.

AT Uniqueness Overwhelms Business Support

Democratic support isnt locked-itDadush, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace International Economics Program Director, 13(Uri, 3-18-13, Dont Buy the Hype on the Transatlantic Trade Deal, http://www.carnegieendowment.org/2013/03/18/don-t-buy-hype-on-transatlantic-trade-deal/frd5, accessed 6-25-13)

Are there political drivers of the negotiations?Certainly. On the American side, this is a key initiative for the new Obama administration. With the United States emerging from a recession, the time is ripe for talking about trade and how it can generate more growth. Obama is looking for issues that he can work with the Republicans on, and this fits the bill. Now, whether the Democrats in Congress will end up supporting the deal is another matter.

Obamas push is keyNeedham, The Hill, 13(Vicki, 2-24-13, The Hill, Support builds for renewing Obamas trade-agreement fast-track authority, http://thehill.com/blogs/on-the-money/1005-trade/284463-support-builds-for-renewing-fast-track-authority, accessed 6-27-13)

Despite the stronger push from business groups, Engler said the effort needs the clear backing of Obama the president usually asks Congress to grant him the authority and that means nominating a replacement for U.S. Trade Representative Ron Kirk, who is heading into his final week on the job. Engler, who said recently that he thought a nomination was imminent is sticking with his prediction that Obama will choose top White House official Jeffery Zients, who has headed up the Office of Management and Budget. He is still hoping a nomination will happen soon. We need the person in place and they need to get busy.

[Note Engler - John Engler, president of the Business Roundtable and a former Michigan Republican governor]

Passage isnt guaranteed tough sellSchroeder, MarketWatch, 13(Robert, 2-21-13, CEO group pushes for renewed U.S. trade authority, http://blogs.marketwatch.com/election/2013/02/21/ceo-group-pushes-for-renewed-u-s-trade-authority/, accessed 7-10-13)

Baucuss and Camps backing doesnt guarantee a smooth ride in Congress, however. Trade Promotion Authority would allow the president to send trade deals to Congress for votes without amendments, and that could make for another tough sell to lawmakers.

AT Immigration

Sequencing solves no immigration reform until the fallKuhnhenn, Associated Press, 7-13-13[Jim, Real Clear Politics, Immigration Mired, Political Wins Elude Obama in 2nd Term,http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2013/07/13/immigration_mired_political_wins_elude_obama_in_2nd_term_119201.html, accessed 7-13-13, AFB]

WASHINGTON (AP) -- A dramatic tax-raising deal last New Year's looked like it might be a breakthrough, signaling improved second-term relations between newly re-elected President Barack Obama and a divided Congress. At least that's what the White House hoped.But six months later, growing uncertainty over a sweeping immigration overhaul measure has dimmed expectations for a big summertime achievement and left Obama still in search of a marquee legislative accomplishment to mark his second four years.His advisers now concede that their best shot at changing the immigration system might come in the fall, after lawmakers return from their August recess. But that could be a long shot during a period already crowded with other issues.

Obama treading carefully not alienating GOP on immigrationKuhnhenn, Associated Press, 7-13-13[Jim, Real Clear Politics, Immigration Mired, Political Wins Elude Obama in 2nd Term,http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2013/07/13/immigration_mired_political_wins_elude_obama_in_2nd_term_119201.html, accessed 7-13-13, AFB]

Others are still upbeat."It's an important moment that could help him if something gets done, if not in his timeline, in the near future," said Patrick Griffin, who handled legislative relations for former President Bill Clinton.As significant as the immigration legislation may be, Obama is treading carefully, wary of alienating Republicans. He has faced some pressure to speak out more forcefully and to use the power of his office to give immigration the visibility he has given to past clashes with Congress over taxes and student loans."Every situation is different," David Plouffe, Obama's former top political adviser, said after visiting the White House this week. "Some have called for more of an approach that is geared to the outside. I think you have to wait and see how this develops."While White House aides and advisers believe Republicans will inflict long-lasting political damage on their own party if they continue to block a comprehensive immigration bill, those advisers say Obama is not ready to hit the road and wage a full-throated partisan fight.

Immigration reform inevitable centrist GOPAlter, Bloomberg View columnist, [Jonathan, 4-12-13, Bloomberg: Surveillance Show, Bloomberg`s Jonathan Alter Talks Politics on Bloomberg Radio, BYLINE: Tom Keene; Mike McKee, Lexis, accessed 7-13-13[

KEENE: Well, that's the history of Jonathan Alter. There is a lot of hope and a lot of optimism. And what I love about it Jonathan is - and you have it in your new Bloomberg View column - something I've noticed as the amateur is this president is finally going for the center to pull over a select group of Republicans instead of going head on with the Republican Party.ALTER: Yes, there were plenty of signs of his trying to do that earlier in his first term. But the last two years were almost complete gridlock for a lot of different reasons we can talk about.But elections have consequences and the consequences of this one were that on immigration reform, for instance, we are going to get it because the Republican Party understands that they got clobbered among Latinos who are a rapidly expanding part of the population. And they have to do something about it, or they are going to be in big trouble as a political party so I think you are going to see movement there.You saw him calling the bluff of the Republicans and actually moving towards some entitlement reform. We'll see what that ends up being, whether it is changed CPI or something else. But I think you will see some kind of progress there.And then on guns with the agreement between Senators Manchin and Toomey, they have taken a path forward on background checks. So it could be a surprisingly productive legislative year for President Obama.

AT Gridlock

Not all gridlock, all the timeKuhnhenn, Associated Press, 7-13-13[Jim, Real Clear Politics, Immigration Mired, Political Wins Elude Obama in 2nd Term,http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2013/07/13/immigration_mired_political_wins_elude_obama_in_2nd_term_119201.html, accessed 7-13-13, AFB]

To be sure, the legislative gridlock has occasionally eased. In February, Republican leaders allowed an expansion to the Violence Against Women Act by extending domestic violence protections to gays, lesbians and transsexuals. And Republicans and Democrats are still trying to strike a deal that would lower interest rates on student loans.

Gridlock wont stop Obama hes ready to handle obstructionKuhnhenn, Associated Press, 7-13-13[Jim, Real Clear Politics, Immigration Mired, Political Wins Elude Obama in 2nd Term,http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2013/07/13/immigration_mired_political_wins_elude_obama_in_2nd_term_119201.html, accessed 7-13-13, AFB]

"He has a Herculean task ahead of him," Rep. Emanuel Cleaver, the past chairman of the Congressional Black Caucus, said hours after he and other black lawmakers met with the president this week. "I am convinced he is fully aware of the difficulties in his path, difficulties that could reduce his legacy."

Gridlock wont be easy but administration is preparedKuhnhenn, Associated Press, 7-13-13[Jim, Real Clear Politics, Immigration Mired, Political Wins Elude Obama in 2nd Term,http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2013/07/13/immigration_mired_political_wins_elude_obama_in_2nd_term_119201.html, accessed 7-13-13, AFB]

White House aides say they're not surprised by the difficulties Obama faces."No one expected that postelection everything would be easy, that all the historic, huge differences between the parties on the big issues would all go away," said senior Obama adviser Dan Pfeiffer."We're six months into our term," he added. "We've already fulfilled one of our biggest campaign pledges in preserving tax cuts for the middle class and having the rates of the wealthy go back to what they were under President Clinton." On immigration, he says that "there are some serious challenges in the way, but six months in and having a bill through the Senate with a bipartisan majority is historically rapid progress."

AT Food Stamps

Food stamps fight will backfire on GOPParker, Washington Post columnist, 7-14-13[Kathleen, Washington Post, Principled self-destruction, p. A19, Lexis, accessed 7-15-13, AFB]

Republicans seem to be adopting the self-immolation tactics of principled martyrs.Of course, principled or not, you're still dead in the end.At this stage in the second term of the president they couldn't defeat, Republicans seem more like stubborn children refusing to come out of their rooms for supper, even though the alternative is going to bed hungry.This simile is unavoidable in light of the House's passage of a farm bill without any provision for food stamps - the first in 40 years. The move prompted fantastic outrage from Democrats, notably Rep. Corrine Brown (Fla.), who shrieked: "Mitt Romney was right: You all do not care about the 47 percent. Shame on you!"Histrionics aside, whether the fact that something has been done a certain way for 40 years is an argument for repeating the same bears a bit of scrutiny. Republicans argued that they'd prefer to deal with agricultural issues in one bill without the leverage of a welfare program.These two programs historically were tied together in the spirit of - watch out now - compromise. And, though food stamps certainly will be funded, probably at current levels, through some other vehicle, Republicans managed to create yet another partisan problem where none existed and opened themselves up for gratuitous criticism.Was this really the right fight at the right time?The wrong time would be in the midst of the politically life-altering debate on immigration reform. Again, congressional Republicans want to parse reform in pieces, excluding the 11 million or so immigrants here illegally, instead of dealing with reform comprehensively, as the Senate has done - and as most Americans think necessary.Republicans do have a point, in theory. Comprehensive bills are cumbersome and difficult to enforce. Democrats love great big lumbering programs because they (a) often do great good, at least in the short term; and (b) create great big self-sustaining bureaucracies that are, by nature, self-propagating and attract large constituencies of voters. This latter is Republicans' chief objection.But 90 percent of life is picking your battles, and congressional Republicans keep picking the wrong ones. This is not true of all. Former Republican vice presidential candidate Paul Ryan (R-Wis.) has joined Luis V. Gutierrez (D-Ill.) to push comprehensive immigration reform.This is also not to say that Democrats have it all right. Both sides are often dishonest and usually self-serving. Democrats are maddeningly disingenuous when they say Republicans are anti- immigrant - and then lecture us about how this country was built by immigrants.True, because the entire planet was "built" by immigrants. But why do immigrants want to come specifically to the United States? Not only for jobs, education and opportunity but also because we are a nation of laws. Playing by the rules and waiting one's turn are also part of our immigrant legacy.Likewise, Republicans are not shooting straight when they insist that the Senate bill's path to citizenship is de facto amnesty. As paths go, it's a 13-year pilgrimage along a precipice lined with bramble bushes - taxes, fines and various burning hoops through which one must leap in order to stand in line. Hardly rose-petal strewn.To the real point, many Republicans fear that allowing 11 million immigrants to become citizens essentially means 11 million more Democrats. This outcome wasn't preordained, but given the tenor of recent debate, their fears are probably justified.Republican intransigence is further compounded by the echo chamber of the Tinker Bell Coalition - the Weekly Standard's Bill Kristol and National Review's Rich Lowry, who recently co-authored an editorial urging Republicans to drive a stake through the heart of immigration reform.These are the same two who thought Sarah Palin would be the perfect running mate for John McCain. Kristol was the first to advance her name, and Lowry famously reported seeing starbursts ricocheting around the living room as he watched Palin wink during her vice presidential debate - and imagined that she was winking at him.One lapse in judgment doesn't condemn a man to a lifetime of errancy - and a winking Alaskan beauty is perhaps a test too far - but fairy dust has a way of contaminating the Republican Way of Thinking. Before you can govern, you have to win. And before you can win, you have to offer something people want to buy.What Republicans are selling appeals to an ever-diminishing market that doesn't even include their erstwhile allies in business and industry. And their self-immolation may prove to have been nothing more than a bonfire of vanities.

Internal LinkPolitical Capital Key

Obama will push and political capital is keyRiley, Heritage Foundation Trade Policy senior policy analyst, & Kim, Heritage Foundation Senior Policy Analyst, 13[Bryan and Anthony B, Heritage Foundation, Advancing Trade Freedom: Key Objective of Trade Promotion Authority Renewal, http://www.heritage.org/research/reports/2013/04/advancing-trade-freedom-key-objective-of-trade-promotion-authority-renewal, accessed: 7/8/13, ML]

Both House Ways and Means Committee chairman David Camp (RMI) and Senate Finance Committee chairman Max Baucus (DMT) have announced plans to pursue TPA legislation. However, many lawmakers have correctly pointed out that a proactive push from President Obama is critical, given that trade bills have been a thorny issue for many Democrats in recent years.Historically, it has been common practice, although not formally required, to have the President request that Congress provide renewed TPA. In fact, except for President Obama, every President since Franklin Roosevelt has either requested or received trade negotiating authority.[1]After four years of informing Congress it would seek TPA at the appropriate time, early this year the Obama Administration finally indicated its interest in working with Congress to get TPA done. The Presidents 2013 trade agenda offered the Administrations most forward-leaning language yet, specifying that to facilitate the conclusion, approval, and implementation of market-opening negotiating efforts, we will also work with Congress on Trade Promotion Authority.[2]

Obama push keyInside US Trade, 6-14-13[Inside U.S. Trade, Nunes Says Congress Unlikely To Renew GSP Before July Expiration, Lexis, AFB]

Nunes said the hesitancy of the House to move forward on legislation without an agreement with the Senate applies to a range of trade bills, including legislation to renew fast-track negotiating authority and a customs modernization bill. But he stressed that there are also other factors at play when it comes to moving those bills.On fast-track, which is also known as Trade Promotion Authority (TPA), Nunes put the onus squarely on the White House to ensure passage of the bill, even as he acknowledged that House and Senate committees of jurisdiction have begun discussions on renewing TPA."I think we're having a productive dialogue [in the committees], but still at the end of the day it's going to take the White House pushing this over the top," he said, referring to TPA.

[Nunes = House Ways and Means trade subcommittee Chair Devin Nunes (R-CA)]

Obama pushing - political capital is keyAbrams, AP, 3-11-13[Jim, Associated Press, Congress wants role as Obama pushes trade agenda, Lexis, accessed 7-13-13]

The Obama administration has embarked on an aggressive trade agenda that could lower barriers and increase U.S. exports to many of the economic giants of Asia and Europe. To make that a reality, though, it may first have to negotiate future trade policy a little closer to home with Congress. The administration hopes to complete talks by October on the Trans-Pacific Partnership, which would reduce duties on a wide range of goods and services in the world's most vibrant trading area. Eleven countries, including Australia, Peru, Malaysia, Vietnam, Mexico and Canada, are participating, and Japan has expressed interest in joining. In his State of the Union address, President Barack Obama announced plans for a second deal, the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership, which would link the United States and the European Union, the world's two largest economies. Departing U.S. Trade Representative Ron Kirk added to the agenda in January when he notified Congress of plans to start negotiations for a new trade agreement on international trade in services. The talks will include a group of 20 trading partners representing nearly two-thirds of global trade in services. Obama has set a goal of doubling exports by the end of next year, after drawing criticism from free-trade advocates during his first term for moving too slowly on trade issues. "The Obama administration suddenly has this highly ambitious trade agenda that they've laid out," said John Murphy, vice president for international affairs at the U.S. Chamber of Commerce. "Now the challenge is going to be executing." First, Obama must nominate a successor to Kirk, who in January announced plans to step down. Then, he has to work with lawmakers to restore a procedure called trade promotion authority that is regarded as key to getting trade treaties finalized and approved by Congress. TPA, also known as "fast track," has a history going back to the 1930s and was formalized in a 1974 trade law. Under TPA, Congress and the White House agree on the objectives of trade negotiations, and Congress affirms that it will vote on any trade treaty without offering amendments that would force the administration to go back to the negotiating table. The last TPA law expired in 2007, and up to now, the Obama White House hasn't pushed for its renewal. Without TPA on the books, trade partners are reluctant to sign off on deals that could later be amended. That could be fatal to some complex trade deals, such as the future talks with the EU where success hinges on reaching delicate compromises on such issues as European agriculture subsidies and Europe's restrictions on genetically engineered crops. A strong trade agenda, said Sen. Orrin Hatch of Utah, the top Republican on the Senate Finance Committee, requires close cooperation and consultation with Congress, and "trade promotion authority is the linchpin that brings these elements together." Members of Obama's Democratic Party tend to oppose TPA, arguing that trade pacts negotiated by past administrations have resulted in job losses in America and given short shrift to environmental and labor and human rights issues. The last TPA law was passed in 2002 by the slimmest of margins, with House votes of 215-214 and 215-212. More than 300 labor and environmental groups, in a letter last week opposing the Trans-Pacific talks, said no TPA legislation should be considered without a thorough assessment of how a trade deal will affect job creation, environmental and labor rights, food sovereignty, access to medicine and other issues. The administration is coming off a good two years on trade. In 2011, it succeeded in getting Congress to approve three bilateral free trade agreements with South Korea, Colombia and Panama and extend a law that helps workers hurt by foreign competition. Last December, Congress sent the president legislation that removed Cold War restrictions standing in the way of permanent normal trade relations with Russia. The three free trade bills, negotiated by the George W. Bush administration and reworked after Obama took office, were all covered by the TPA law in effect before 2007. The administration, in its trade policy agenda report released last week, pledged to work with Congress on TPA "to facilitate the conclusion, approval and implementation of market-opening negotiating efforts."

Obamas push is necessaryPalmer, Reuters, 13(Doug, 3-1-13, Chicago Tribune, White House says it will seek "fast-track" trade authority, http://articles.chicagotribune.com/2013-03-01/news/sns-rt-us-obama-tradebre9200pk-20130301_1_trans-pacific-partnership-trade-promotion-authority-trade-talks, accessed 6-17-13)

Senator Orrin Hatch of Utah, the top Republican on the Senate Finance Committee, said on Friday he was pleased the White House was "finally" asking for renewal of the legislation. But "making TPA a reality requires more than talk, it demands real leadership and action from the president," Hatch said, calling the legislation an essential "lynchpin" for Obama's trade agenda. Senator Rob Portman, an Ohio Republican and former U.S. trade representative under President George W. Bush, welcomed the statement but said it was critical the administration "focus needed resources to developing and passing TPA." The U.S. business community has made passage of TPA one of its top priorities this year. "We think it's a critical tool to effectively negotiate agreements and get them passed by Congress," said John Engler, president of the Business Roundtable and a former Michigan Republican governor. Christopher Wenk, senior director of international policy at the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, said his group welcomed the administration's acknowledgement that "TPA needs to be on the agenda" as it pursues an expanding list of trade initiatives.

Obama political capital is necessaryHadar, Business Times Singapore Washington Bureau Chief, 13 (Leon, former research fellow with the Cato Institute, 2-19-13, Business Times Singapore, Obama must show free trade is high on his plans; His rhetorical skills will come in handy to market an energetic trade agenda to Americans, lexis, accessed 6-14-13)

Obama must show free trade is high on his plans; His rhetorical skills will come in handy to market an energetic trade agenda to AmericansPRESIDENT Barack Obama delivered a rousing and detailed State Of the Union Address before Congress last week. In the speech, he urged the lawmakers and the American people to unite behind his proposed policy agenda that aims at accelerating the economic recovery and creating new jobs through the revitalisation of the nation's middle class. Among other things, he called on Congress to raise government assistance to pre-school programmes and R&D projects, to finance repairing the country's crumbling infrastructure and to increase the minimum wage. And while Mr Obama reiterated his commitment to lower the federal deficit and put America's fiscal house in order, it is doubtful that the Republicans who control the House of Representatives will support his proposal to close tax loopholes for corporations and wealthy Americans which would take the form of new tax increases. The political deadlock between the White House and the Republicans over budgetary priorities will continue to dominate legislation and policymaking for much of the president's second term. In fact, it is unlikely that Mr Obama would even be able to win support from Republicans on Capitol Hill for his plans to reform the current immigration system and to place modest restrictions on gun ownership, and certainly not for his business-friendly ideas in dealing with the issue of climate change. But there is one policy arena that could help produce bipartisanship consensus and help Mr Obama and even make history in the next for years: International trade. Indeed, during his address last week, Mr Obama insisted that promoting free trade would be the central component of his plans to create new jobs and grow the economy, which was one of the few times in which he won applause from both Democrats and Republicans in the chamber. More specifically, Mr Obama promised not only to conclude a free trade accord with the economies in the trans-Pacific region, the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), but also to launch new negotiations over a similar accord with the economies of the European Union (EU), the proposed Trans-Atlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP). Mr Obama's record on free trade during his first term was mediocre at best, concluding and winning Congressional support for trade accords with South Korea, Colombia and Panama that had been signed by his Republican predecessor, and continuing negotiations over the TPP. In a way, notwithstanding his declared commitment to multilateral strategy, Mr Obama has relegated global trade liberalisation to the bottom of his policy agenda in the past four years, when other economies were much more active in advancing new trade initiatives. In part, the White House may have been reluctant to embrace globalisation at a time of slow economic growth and high unemployment, especially in key electoral states such as Ohio and Michigan. And Mr Obama was not interested in picking-up fights with key Democratic Party constituencies such as the trade unions and environmental groups. Now that the presidential election is behind him and he is not worried about running again for office, but wants to ensure his historical legacy, the time has come for Mr Obama to demonstrate whether he is a genuine free-trader who recognises that liberalising trade and investment are an integral part of his broader agenda of advancing global peace and prosperity in multilateral settings. He should start by asking that Congress renew the White House's Trade Promotion Authority (TPA), This would allow him to start negotiating new trade agreements without Congress and interest groups that manipulate it looking over his shoulder all the time, and well as by selecting a new US Trade Representative (USTR) and get him confirmed by Congress. He should also try to use his rhetorical skills as part of an effort to market an energetic trade agenda to the American public which has been exhibiting protectionist sentiments in recent years. Helping to facilitate the trade and investment ties between the United States and the EU is a good idea. But trade in goods and services between the two economies already approaches US$1 trillion, while bilateral investment between the sides is about US$4 trillion. Tariffs on imports on both sides are quite low, and negotiating to lower them further will probably take several years. In any case, the trans-Atlantic strategic and economic ties will remain very strong with or without a TIIP. Hence it makes more sense for the Obama administration to invest most of its time and energy in the coming months in trying to conclude the TPP and sign it ASAP after the White House's TPA is extended by Congress. With the 16th round of the TPP negotiations starting next month in Singapore, the White House and its new USTR need to draw the outlines of a strategy of winning support for a TPP in Congress, where several leading Democratic lawmakers have reservations about some of its provisions, especially those relating to the protection of Intellectual Property Rights (IPR). Getting the TPP signed and approved by Congress should be seen as critical to promoting US economic and strategic interests at a time when Washington is promoting its "pivot" to East Asia, strengthening its ties with the Asean and other partners in the region, and managing its complex relationship with Beijing. Moreover, the TPP as part of an activist US global trade agenda is, in a way, a "no-brainer" when its comes to strengthening American economic interests, a win-win strategy that enjoys the support of a bipartisan coalition of Democrats and Republicans on Capitol Hill, a very rare event in Washington these days.

TPA requires political capitalLevy, Foreign Policy, 12(Philip, 1-17-12, A tricked-out trade bureaucracy, http://shadow.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2012/01/17/a_tricked_out_trade_bureaucracy, accessed 6-13-13)

2. Is this trade process politics in lieu of actual trade progress? This is not the first trade process reform advocated by the administration. In August 2009, President Obama launched a review to reform the U.S. export control system. Over two years later, progress has been minimal. It is the same sort of issue that requires Congressional action and threatens committee jurisdictions. To avoid lengthy delays with his latest reform, the president is seeking a version of "fast track" authority from Congress to conduct the reorganization. This request comes just months after refusing to seek new "fast track" authority to pursue actual trade liberalization. When Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) tried to attach such authority (Trade Promotion Authority, or TPA) to the September trade package, opponents argued that the issue was too complicated and needed a more thorough rethink. Yet, years after TPA lapsed, no rethink or request has been forthcoming from the White House. TPA not only paves the way for a trade agreement to move through Congress, it also provides crucial signals in the negotiating stage about whether any given White House trade stance will have Congressional backing. This choice of agency reorganization over trade negotiating authority may sound hopelessly arcane to any but the most devoted Beltway trade devotee. There are some serious foreign policy implications, however. If history is any guide, the president will devote limited political capital to pushing trade matters through Congress in the foreseeable future (he devoted none over his first two years). He has just declared that his priority will be a contentious organization chart reshuffle. If this is in lieu of TPA, then the president will have no hope of getting trade agreements through Congress in the near future. If that's the case, his vaunted Trans-Pacific Partnership will be little more than endless talk. And, if that's the case, his trumpeted pivot to Asia will have lost its economic pillar. The president just asked for the wrong fast track. He must hope independent voters don't notice.

Capital is key Clinton proves Williams, Washington Times, 11(Armstrong, 10-3-11, Washington Times, Righteous Indignation: Obama would do well to emulate Clinton, lexis, accessed 6-6-13)

Trade policy I lead with this because it's easily the quickest thing President Obama could accomplish to help set the economy on the right footing again. Mr. Clinton bucked the powerful labor unions and even some of the most liberal wings in his party to push through Trade Promotion Authority (TPA) during his tenure. For the first time, the administration had the power to negotiate trade deals and send them to the Congress for an up-or-down vote. TPA was a signature legislative jewel in the crown of the Clinton presidency, and it took none other than Mr. Clinton himself to put his own political capital on the line to marshal it through the Congress. Mr. Clinton was a master of acknowledging the concerns of labor rights yet channeling them into meaningful legislation. It was not enough to just fight and lose the battles. Mr. Clinton needed to win. And when it came to trade, and the United States' continued dominance on the world commercial scene, he was one of the best trade envoys for the nation. Mr. Obama would do well to emulate Mr. Clinton's behavior in this regard, especially since many in Congress have teed up three free-trade agreements (South Korea, Panama and Colombia) for him to carry over the finish line.

Political Capital Key to Win Democrats

Political capital key to win DemocratsPalmer, Reuters, 13(Doug, 3-1-13, Chicago Tribune, White House says it will seek "fast-track" trade authority, http://articles.chicagotribune.com/2013-03-01/news/sns-rt-us-obama-tradebre9200pk-20130301_1_trans-pacific-partnership-trade-promotion-authority-trade-talks, accessed 6-17-13)

Both Camp and Senate Finance Committee Chairman Max Baucus, a Democrat from Montana, have announced plans to pursue TPA legislation. But many lawmakers believe a strong push from Obama is needed because trade bills are unpopular with many Democrats.

Political Capital Key to Agenda

Presidential strength key to agendaHorowitz, Washington Post, 6-13-13[Jason, Washingtonpost.com, The man guarding Obama's legacy, Lexis, p. C2, accessed 7-13-13]

Pfeiffer said his communications experience has made him more mindful above all of projecting the president's strength. The 2011 debt-ceiling negotiations, he said, showed him the importance of Obama not being perceived as weak or taking the base for granted."The greatest danger zone a president can be in is when he is being attacked on the left and the right," Pfeiffer said, recalling the negative reaction to the debt deal. "When they are reading off the same talking points, that's when presidencies fall apart."

[Note Dan Pfeiffer = Assistant to the President of the United States and Senior Advisor to the President for Strategy and Communications]

Trade Promotion Authority Impacts

Key Laundry List

TPA key to exports, global model for agreements, and trade leadership Senators Portman & Cantwell, 6-13-13[Rob, R-Ohio, Maria, D-Washington, Roll Call, A Bipartisan Opportunity for Jobs, http://www.rollcall.com/news/a_bipartisan_opportunity_for_jobs_commentary-225603-1.html, accessed 7-13-13, AFB]

This expedited authority, which expired in 2007, would allow the president to negotiate and submit export agreements to Congress for a clean up-or-down vote without amendments. TPA also would outline principles and framework for trade negotiations, while ensuring continued congressional consultation. TPA principles have guided U.S. bilateral negotiations with countless countries from Chile to Australia, helping us knock down barriers to exports.Although all of our trade agreement partners combined only make up about 10 percent of global gross domestic product, America sends more than 45 percent of our exports to them.Exports are vital to our economy, supporting nearly 10 million American jobs. More than 1 in 3 jobs in Washington state is dependent on international trade. And in Ohio, more than one-quarter of manufacturing jobs are dependent on exports. Exports support American-made products and jobs, from soybean farmers and auto manufacturers in the Midwest to cherry growers and airplane manufacturers in the Pacific Northwest.But we need to ensure that these jobs continue to grow under a 21st-century trade-negotiating framework. By creating a comprehensive, high-standard model for trade, we can establish new trade disciplines and structure agreements that include enforceable provisions on issues important to our domestic workforce and businessesPassing TPA is crucial to asserting Americas leadership in the global economy. With competitors such as China creating alliances around the world daily, we must proactively engage our trading partners to improve access for American goods and to knock down unfair barriers. Equally important, these agreements allow us to hold our competitors feet to the fire when they dont play by the rules.

Key to Trade

TPAs key to growth and trade, and completing trade agreementsUS Chamber of Commerce 13[2013, Why Does America Need Trade Promotion Authority (TPA)?, http://www.uschamber.com/international/why-does-america-need-trade-promotion-authority-tpa, accessed: 7/8/13, ML]

Why Does America Need Trade Promotion Authority (TPA)?Reason 1: Trade Supports Growth and Jobs Outside our borders are markets that represent 80% of the worlds purchasing power, 92% of its economic growth, and 95% of its consumers. Trade already supports 38 million American jobs One in three manufacturing jobs depends on exports, and one in three acres on American farms is planted for export. U.S. services exports top $600 billion, leading the world rankings.Reason 2: Trade is Vital to Small Business More than 97% of the 300,000 U.S. companies that export their products are small and medium-sized companies. Small firms account for more than one-third of all U.S. merchandise exports.Reason 3: Trade Agreements Level the Playing Field Many countries slap tariffs on U.S. exports that are ten or twenty times as high as our own, and a web of non-tariff barriers overseas often shut out U.S. goods and services. Trade agreements can tear down those barriers. Thats why U.S. exports to new free-trade agreement (FTA) partners have grown on average four times as rapidly in the period following an agreements entry-into-force as U.S. exports globally. The expansion in trade spurred by FTAs sustains more than five million American jobs. While they represent just 10% of global GDP, Americas 20 FTA partners buy nearly half of U.S. exports. The U.S. has a trade surplus with its 20 FTA partners in manufactures, services, and agricultural products.Reason 4: We Can Do More to Seize the Benefits of Trade To extend these benefits, the U.S. has embarked on a bold new trade agenda that includes negotiations for the Trans-Pacific Partnership, with 11 other Asia-Pacific nations; The Trans-Atlantic Trade and Investment Partnership, with the European Union; and The Trade in Services Agreement, with nearly 50 other countries.Reason 5: To Do Any of the Above, America Needs TPA But to finalize any of these agreements, Congress must approve Trade Promotion Authority (TPA). The Constitution gives Congress authority to regulate international trade, but it gives the President authority to negotiate with foreign governments. TPA builds on this constitutional partnership by requiring the executive branch to consult extensively with Congress during negotiations while assuring U.S. trading partners that agreements will receive an up-or-down vote.

Key to Jobs

TPA renewal increases imports critical to jobs and the manufacturing industryRiley, Heritage Foundation Trade Policy senior policy analyst, & Kim, Heritage Foundation Senior Policy Analyst, 13[Bryan and Anthony B, Heritage Foundation, 4/16/13, Advancing Trade Freedom: Key Objective of Trade Promotion Authority Renewal, http://www.heritage.org/research/reports/2013/04/advancing-trade-freedom-key-objective-of-trade-promotion-authority-renewal, accessed: 7/8/13, ML]

The TPA renewal debate in Congress should reflect the fact that both exports and imports are job-supporting activities. In other words, the debate should focus on how to deliver greater trade freedom to Americans that advances the benefits of trade in both directions.It is a common misperception that importing goods to America comes at the cost of American jobs. In fact, imports contribute to job creation on a large scale. The increased economic activity associated with every stage of the import process helps support millions of jobs in the U.S. As shown by a recent Heritage Foundation study, for instance, over half a million American jobsin fields such as transportation, wholesale, retail, construction, and financeare supported by imports of clothes and toys from China alone.[4]Highlighting the dynamic and value-adding role played by imports in the U.S. economy, an empirical analysis published in the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review presents strong evidence that policies to bolster exports at the expense of imports would significantly harm U.S. manufacturing, adding that imports have played a critical positive role in boosting manufacturing output in the United Statesmuch more so, in fact, than exports.[5] Indeed, intermediate goods imports and capital goods imports are the lifeblood of U.S. manufacturing. Without them, manufacturing output is impossible.

Key to Trade Leadership

TPA is crucial to US trade leadership, competitiveness, job growth and more exportsMurphy, International Affairs at the Chamber of Commerce vice president, 6/14/13[John, Free Enterprise, Solve the Trade Puzzle with Trade Promotion Authority, http://www.freeenterprise.com/international/solve-trade-puzzle-trade-promotion-authority, accessed: 7/7/13, ML]

Trade Promotion Authority offers us exactly this opportunity: a bipartisan economic initiative that will support American job creation and keep our nation competitive in the global economy while not costing taxpayers any money.We were pleased to hear the presidents recent nominee to the post of U.S. trade representative, Mike Froman, embrace TPA, a power requested by every president since Franklin D. Roosevelt, in his Finance Committee confirmation hearing. It seems that the president who included a request for TPA in his 2013 trade agenda is serious about pursuing new trade agreements. Thats good news for our economy.Passing TPA is crucial to asserting Americas leadership in the global economy. With competitors such as China creating alliances around the world daily, we must proactively engage our trading partners to improve access for American goods and to knock down unfair barriers.One of the agreements the United States is negotiating is the Trans-Pacific Partnership. The United States and Japan recently announced an agreement for Japans entry into Trans-Pacific Partnership negotiations. Japans inclusion would open the worlds third-largest market for American-made goods and force Japan to address unfair barriers that hurt American auto exports. With Japan included, trade among the Trans-Pacific Partnership countries would equal about one-third of all global trade, accounting for nearly 40 percent of global GDP.At the same time, the U.S. is negotiating the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership, which would expand access to the European Union.Europe is currently Americas largest export market, purchasing $459 billion in American-made goods that support 2.4 million jobs in the United States. We believe this agreement, if properly constructed, could be a catalyst for greater economic growth on both continents.Through TPA, Congress can ensure that future trade agreements reflect the best interests of Americans. In short, Trade Promotion Authority is a symbol of the partnership that exists between the executive and legislative branches of government in developing and facilitating global exports to support American jobs.Now is the time for Congress to push forward and lead, giving American exporters and American jobs the edge in the global economy.

Key to Trade Agreement Negotiation

TPA is key to effective trade agreement negotiationsSoltas, Bloomberg Ticker blog, 13[Evan, 6/12/13, Bloomberg, A Fairer Way to Fast-Track Trade Deals, http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-06-12/a-fairer-way-to-fast-track-trade-deals.html, accessed: 7/7/13, ML]

The Obama administration wants a renewal of its congressionally granted authority to get fast-track legislative treatment of trade agreements. Michael Froman, the presidents nominee for U.S. trade representative, said in confirmation testimony that he'll be back to ask for it soon.That power, known officially as trade-promotion authority, began in 1974 when the U.S. joined the Tokyo Round of multilateral trade talks -- but it expired in 2007. It allowed the executive branch to negotiate trade deals and prevented Congress from filibustering or amending them, requiring an up-or-down vote after no more than 20 hours of debate.The U.S. is now working on two trade deals of historic size -- one with the European Union, another with an assortment of Pacific-Rim nations. The Obama administration says it needs the authority to strike good bargains.Is that right? The case for trade-promotion authority should be considered separately from the case for liberal trade. Free traders and trade skeptics alike are apt to bundle the two issues together. Whatever you views on liberal trade, the case for fast-track deserves consideration on its merits.The best argument is that breakthrough deals -- ones with sensitive concessions on both sides -- become all but impossible without it. Imagine youre a negotiator from a foreign country. You might be prepared to yield on some issues, such as a tariff that enjoys wide popular support at home, but only if you get something significant in return. What you wont do is make concessions and then let the other guy back out of his side of the bargain. That's the risk when Congress is allowed to amend negotiated agreements.

TPA is key to new trade agreements increases jobs and exportsSenate Finance Committee press release, 13[Sean Neary and Meaghan Smith, 6/6/13, The US Senate Committee on Finance, Baucus Secures Administration's Commitment to Renewing Trade Promotion Authority, http://www.finance.senate.gov/newsroom/chairman/release/?id=0021bd8e-4ecd-438d-a9eb-23fe596320a5, ACCESSED: 7/7/13, ml]

WASHINGTON At a Senate Finance Committee hearing today on Mike Fromans nomination to be U.S. trade representative (USTR), Chairman Max Baucus (D-Mont.) urged him to aggressively pursue an ambitious trade agenda that will boost U.S. exports and create U.S. jobs. Senator Baucus noted that Froman has key experience in recent negotiations and at forums of G8 and G20 members that make him the right choice for USTR. Froman also said the President is formally requesting trade promotion authority and pledged to Senator Baucus to work with him and the committee on the legislation.With Trans-Pacific Partnership talks nearing completion and trade negotiations with the EU getting off the ground, USTR must have nimble, effective leadership. These trade deals will make a real difference here at home, boosting our exports and creating jobs. And we need to renew trade promotion authority and critical worker training and assistance to help move the ball forward on these trade agreements. Ive been working to renew fast-track authority for a long time, and Im pleased that the President is putting the rubber to the road and formally requesting TPA, Senator Baucus said. Mike Froman is the right person for this job. I am confident that with him at the helm, USTR will meet the ambitious trade goals the President has set.Senator Baucus said the U.S. needs a strong trade representative as Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) negotiations continue and free trade agreement talks with the E.U. ramp up. The two trade deals offer the U.S. landmark opportunities to boost exports.The TPP countries which represent many of the fastest-growing economies in the world accounted for 40 percent of total U.S. goods exports last year. And the EU purchased close to $460 billion in U.S. goods and services last year, supporting 2.4 million American jobs.

TPA is key assuring other countries in negotiations Palmer, Reuters, 3-1-13(Doug, White House says it will seek "fast-track" trade authority, http://articles.chicagotribune.com/2013-03-01/news/sns-rt-us-obama-tradebre9200pk-20130301_1_trans-pacific-partnership-trade-promotion-authority-trade-talks, accessed 3-6-13)

Trade promotion authority, also known as TPA or "fast track," allows the White House to submit deals to Congress for straight up-or-down votes without any amendments. It is considered essential to assuring other countries that any deal they reach with the United States will not be picked apart by U.S. lawmakers during the approval process.

Key to Trade Agreement Passage

TPA is key getting Congressional support for trade dealsNeedham, The Hill, 13(Vicki, 2-24-13, The Hill, Support builds for renewing Obamas trade-agreement fast-track authority, http://thehill.com/blogs/on-the-money/1005-trade/284463-support-builds-for-renewing-fast-track-authority, accessed 6-14-13)

Engler said the authority is imperative in showing potential trading partners that the United States is serious about not only forging new agreements but moving them quickly through Congress. Whilte the authority isn't technically needed to begin or end trade talks, it does give Congress a way of framing the debate and influencing the agenda in conjunction with the White House while, usually, signaling support for a particular agreement.

[Note Engler = John Engler, president of the Business Roundtable (BRT)]

TPA is key to quick negotiationsPalacio, Business Day, 13(Ana, 3-6-13, Business Day, Winning the transatlantic trade challenge, http://www.businessdayonline.com/NG/index.php/analysis/commentary/52571-winning-the-transatlantic-trade-challenge, accessed 6-21-13)

Moreover, a bipartisan approach might ease authorization for so-called Trade Promotion Authority, allowing the president to present an agreement for an up-or-down vote without possibility of amendment which will be essential for the completion of negotiations. We have already seen qualified US congressional support from Senate Finance Committee Chairman Max Baucus and ranking Republican Orrin Hatch who, while calling the potential agreement an enticing opportunity, specifically noted the need to address unwarranted agricultural barriers in the EU, including policies on GM organisms and hormones.

That creates support for passagePalacio, Business Day, 13(Ana, 3-6-13, Business Day, Winning the transatlantic trade challenge, http://www.businessdayonline.com/NG/index.php/analysis/commentary/52571-winning-the-transatlantic-trade-challenge, accessed 6-21-13)

A working summit would demonstrate a willingness at the highest echelons to resolve in principle the major obstacles standing in the way of an agreement. If successful, such a meeting would lay a foundation of genuine political support for efficient and effective technical negotiations. An agreement that rejuvenates the transatlantic relationship will require nothing less.

TPA is key to passagePoliti and McGregor, Financial Times, 13(James and Richard, 2-13-13, Financial Times, Obama injects fresh trade optimism, http://www.zawya.com/story/Obama_injects_fresh_trade_optimism-20130213_3896_15432/, accessed 6-14-13)

The Obama administration's pursuit of a trade deal with the EU received key endorsements in Congress on Tuesday. Max Baucus and Orrin Hatch, respectively the Democratic chairman and the top Republican on the Senate finance committee, which oversees trade, issued a joint statement that was largely upbeat, saying such a deal would have "a multiplier effect and would be certain to generate much needed economic growth on both sides of the Atlantic". But Mr Baucus and Mr Hatch also warned that trade barriers between the US and the EU were "long standing and difficult to overcome" as they laid out their priorities for any deal - including access for US beef and pork exports, strong intellectual property protections, regulatory compliance, a dispute settlement mechanism and more access for US services providers. The pair also said they would seek to renew Trade Promotion Authority, which expired in 2007 and is critical to the passage of trade deals through Congress because it allows the agreements to advance under "fast track" rules with no amendments.

Key to Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP)

TPA is key to effective TPP negotiationsFergusson, Congressional Research Service International Trade and Finance Specialist, et al. 6/17/13[Ian F, William H. Cooper - Specia