Public Opinion and American Foreign Policy

Public Opinion and AFP

• Survey of 18-24 y.o. Americans• 11% of Americans cannot find the U.S. on the

map• 29% cannot find the Pacific Ocean• 58% cannot find Japan• 69% cannot find the UK

A tough one…

Easier than…

Ok, maybe we’re just bad at geography…

• 1994: 46% of Americans believed the 2 largest expenditures in the federal budget were: foreign affairs and welfare

• 1993: 25% of Americans could ID any ethnic group fighting in Bosnia

• 1985: 28% of Americans thought the U.S. fought the USSR in World War II

Does public opinion matter?

• Traditional view: NO!– Almond-Lippmann thesis– Public opinion is:• Uninformed• Volatile• Lacking in coherence

– Even if leaders followed public opinion, they would have no way of knowing what direction to go…

Public Opinion: Somalia

Public Opinion: Haiti

Public Opinion: Bosnia

Public Opinion: Kosovo

Traditional View of Public Opinion

• Most Americans are non-attentive…• …but it probably didn’t matter given the “Cold

War Consensus”– Ex. 1961 Gallup Poll: “Would you fight an all-out

nuclear war than live under Communist rule?”– Would rather fight in a nuclear war: 81%

Does public opinion matter?

• New/Revisionist view: YES!– Re-alignment after Vietnam: breakdown of the

consensus– Public opinion is relatively coherent: the lack of

factual knowledge does not mean lack of consistency…

– When public opinion changes – it is in response to events, not random fluctuations…

Iraq

Afghanistan

The “Pretty Prudent Public”

• US public’s attitudes seem all over the place on intervention

• Jentleson: Not hawks or doves, just prudent.• Polls from post-Vietnam conflicts:– Americans support use of force when goal is

foreign policy restraint of another state– Americans less support for force aimed at internal

regime change of another state

Still a “Pretty Prudent Public”?

• Iraq: 54% support invasion 1 week prior (60% if UN SC support is given)

• Afghanistan: 88% supported invasion (2001)– Today: Majority favors continuing war, but that

number drops to about 20-25% if object of war is to “secure democracy”

• Afghanistan: different support dynamics based on this high starting point:

Afghanistan

How might public opinion matter?

• Direct influence on Congress/President– Magnitudes need to be strong!

• Indirect influence– Anticipated reaction– “boundary setting”

• But what if it works the other way around?– What if elites lead the public, especially if they are

relatively disinterested in foreign affairs?

Indexing Theory

• Idea that media “indexes” their coverage by what elites are saying (Bennett; Entman)

• If there are elite debates (i.e., Congress vs. President), then it gets covered.

• Non-elite debate gets much less coverage…• Implications:– Can public opinion make a difference?– Can Congress make a difference?

Study of Local Media

• Our study: 50 largest media markets; all local news broadcasts from two weeks before until two weeks after Congressional debate over force authorization measure

• Data: 10,000 news broadcasts; 5500 hours of programs

• Findings: Media follows Congress; Public opinion follows media; President’s pay attention to the public (similar to Zaller)

Congressional Speeches

NY Times Coverage

Local News

Support for Iraq War

Why does it matter?

• International Relations Theory– Theories of audience costs rely on voter judgment– Median voter/electoral models often assume

knowledge of policy and votes– Idea of diversionary behavior assumes fickle public

opinion– Studies of American Foreign Policy often assume

one way causation

Why does it matter?

• Public Policy: Afghanistan/Globalization• Afghanistan: Will public continue to support

the war there?

Globalization

• Are there more economic “adjustments” in the future?

• Will the U.S. need to belt tighten to address imbalances?

Do Americans Like Trade/Globalization?

Conclusion

• We still do not have a good answer as to whether publics lead elites or vice-versa.– Depends on issue and salience

• Future military challenges in Afghanistan will likely have some public support in the long run.

• Future economic challenges that require costly US adjustments could be more problematic