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IES - Institute for Environment and Sustainability Ispra - Italy http://ies.jrc.ec.europa.eu/ http://www.jrc.ec.europa.eu/ Joint Research Centre (JRC) JRC Milan 30/09/2009 – INEMAR 1 POMI EMISSION INVENTORY

POMI EMISSION INVENTORY

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POMI EMISSION INVENTORY. 1. Checked the procedure followed for the preparation of the emission inventory base case. UNECE/EMEP. NAZIONAL EMISSION INVENTORY. REGIONAL EMISSION INVENTORY (INEMAR). Areal + Linear. Point sources. Area + linear + point. PROXY DB. Point. Areal. Linear. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Page 1: POMI EMISSION  INVENTORY

IES - Institute for Environment and SustainabilityIspra - Italy

http://ies.jrc.ec.europa.eu/

http://www.jrc.ec.europa.eu/

Joint Research Centre (JRC)

JRC Milan 30/09/2009 – INEMAR 1

POMI EMISSION INVENTORY

Page 2: POMI EMISSION  INVENTORY

JRC Milan 30/09/2009 – INEMAR 2

1. Checked the procedure followed for the preparation of the emission inventory base case

Page 3: POMI EMISSION  INVENTORY

IES - Institute for Environment and SustainabilityIspra - Italy

http://ies.jrc.ec.europa.eu/

http://www.jrc.ec.europa.eu/

Joint Research Centre (JRC)

JRC Milan 30/09/2009 – INEMAR 3

NAZIONAL EMISSION INVENTORY

EMISSIONIGRIGLIATE

REGIONAL EMISSION INVENTORY (INEMAR)UNECE/EMEP

Urban road Italia

+ EMEP su griglia nazioni confinanti

Land use/sector assignation profiles

0.00

0.20

0.40

0.60

0.80

1.00

1.20

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Land Use

Weights Industry(1/3/4)Resid.Combustion (2)Fossile Comb. (5/6)trasp (7)Off-Road Transport (8)Waste manag. (9)Agriculture (10)Nature (11)

PROXY DB

INPUT FOR MODELERS

Linear PointAreal

Areal+ LinearPoint sourcesArea

+ linear+ point

Land use + Profiles IMPRESAREO

RDBMS

Highway +Extraurban road

without coordinate

Page 4: POMI EMISSION  INVENTORY

JRC Milan 30/09/2009 – INEMAR 4

2. Intercomparison within regional/national PM10 emission inventory

0

1.000

2.000

3.000

4.000

5.000

6.000

7.000

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and

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s

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11

t y-1

APAT

INEMAR

ISPRA (ex APAT)

Page 5: POMI EMISSION  INVENTORY

JRC Milan 30/09/2009 – INEMAR 5

2. Intercomparison within regional/national NOX emission inventory

0

10.000

20.000

30.000

40.000

50.000

60.000

70.000

80.000

90.000

100.000

Co

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and

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ks

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11

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APAT

INEMAR

ISPRA (ex APAT)

Page 6: POMI EMISSION  INVENTORY

JRC Milan 30/09/2009 – INEMAR 6

2. Intercomparison within regional/national emission inventory

-40%

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

SO2 NOx NMVOC CH4 CO CO2 N2O NH3 PM2.5 PM10

Page 7: POMI EMISSION  INVENTORY

JRC Milan 30/09/2009 – INEMAR 7

2. Intercomparison within POMI/national emission inventory (regions providing the complete INEMAR)

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

SO2 NOx COV CO NH3 PM10 PM2.5

Page 8: POMI EMISSION  INVENTORY

JRC Milan 30/09/2009 – INEMAR 8

2. Intercomparison within POMI/national emission inventory

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

SO2 NOx COV CO NH3 PM10 PM2.5

Page 9: POMI EMISSION  INVENTORY

JRC Milan 30/09/2009 – INEMAR 9

2. Intercomparison within POMI/national emission inventory - PM10

-

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

1-P

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ISPRA (EX APAT)

POMI

Page 10: POMI EMISSION  INVENTORY

JRC Milan 30/09/2009 – INEMAR 10

2. Intercomparison within POMI/national emission inventory - NOx

-

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,0001

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Page 11: POMI EMISSION  INVENTORY

JRC Milan 30/09/2009 – INEMAR 11

3. Which are the main sources of PM ?

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

SO2 NOx COV CH4 CO CO2 N2O NH3 PM2.5 PM10

Combustion and energy transformation industry Non industrial combustion plants

Industrial combustion plants Production process

Extraction and distribution of fossil fuel Solvent

Road transport Other mobile source machinery

Waste treatment and disposal Agriculture

Other sources

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

PM2.5 PM10 TSP SO2 NOx NMVOC CO CO2 eq

no fuel

others

fuel oil

natural gas

wood

kerosene

LPG

gasoil

refinery gas

diesel

coal

gasoline

Page 12: POMI EMISSION  INVENTORY

JRC Milan 30/09/2009 – INEMAR 12

C.A.T.I. (Computer AidedTelephone

Interview) for 18.085 families

3.1 Residential wood combustion?

Activity data Emission factors? Temporal profile

Page 13: POMI EMISSION  INVENTORY

JRC Milan 30/09/2009 – INEMAR 13

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

Berga

mo

Bresc

ia

Como

Crem

ona

Lecc

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di

Man

tova

Mila

noPav

ia

Sondr

io

Vares

e

2008 2005

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Berga

mo

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Mila

n 20

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Traditional fireplace Traditional stove, close fireplace Innovative stove BAT

3.1 Residential wood combustion?

Page 14: POMI EMISSION  INVENTORY

JRC Milan 30/09/2009 – INEMAR 14

3.1 Residential wood combustion?

Activity data Emission factors

PM

?Temporal profile

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

Camino aperto Stufa tradizionale Camino chiuso o inserto Stufa o caldaia innovativa Sistema BAT a legna ostufa pellets; sistema BAT

pelletsTraditional

fireplace

Traditional

stove

Close fireplace

Innovativestove

BAT0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00

3.50

Camino tradizionale Stufa tradizionale camino chiuso Stufa innovativa BAT

INEMAR GUIDEBOOK IIASA

Traditional

fireplaceTraditional

stove

Close fireplace

Innovativestove

BAT

INEMAR GUIDEBOOK IIASAPM NOx VOC

Page 15: POMI EMISSION  INVENTORY

JRC Milan 30/09/2009 – INEMAR 15

Other mobile source machinery

Road transport

Extraction and distribution of fossil

fuelProduction process

Industrial combustion plants

Non industrial combustion plants

Other sources

Combustion and energy

transformation industryAgriculture

Waste treatment and disposal

PM Emission inventory

Page 16: POMI EMISSION  INVENTORY

JRC Milan 30/09/2009 – INEMAR 16

3.1 Residential wood combustion?

Activity data Emission factors

Temporal profile?

-

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

Winter

Spring

Summer

Autumn

Page 17: POMI EMISSION  INVENTORY

JRC Milan 30/09/2009 – INEMAR 17

Fuel consumption for areal traffic

Linear traffic

Copert IV (E.F.)

Linear traffic emissions

Fuel sold

Fuel consumption

factors

Fuel used

Copert IV (E.F.)

Urban traffic emissions

3.2 Road transport?

Page 18: POMI EMISSION  INVENTORY

JRC Milan 30/09/2009 – INEMAR 18

Emission considering or not the gradient of the street for different vehicle load

0.90

0.95

1.00

1.05

1.10

1.15

LP 100

LP 50

3.2 Road transport?

Page 19: POMI EMISSION  INVENTORY

JRC Milan 30/09/2009 – INEMAR 19

Applied a different methodology for estimating emission from road transport sectors (ARTEMIS/HBEFA)

Considering the so-called go-trough trafficAnalisi di incertezza aggiornata sui fattori di

emissione COPERT IV

Still ongoing…

Page 20: POMI EMISSION  INVENTORY

JRC Milan 30/09/2009 – INEMAR 20

PM10

0.0% 20.0% 40.0% 60.0% 80.0% 100.0%

roughness length (Z0 * 5)

Wind intensity (W/2)

Nudged meteo

WB seasonal reallocation (VOC-PM)

WB emission factor (VOC-PM)

S7 emission factor (VOC-Nox-PM)

32-64 bit compiler

WB temporal distribution

Impact of NH3 emissions

Impact of S2 emissions

Impact of traffic

Impact of all Surf. Sources

Impact of all sources

Impact of Traffic & heating

Mean Lomb

Bormio

Ispra

Milan

POMI domain

Page 21: POMI EMISSION  INVENTORY

JRC Milan 30/09/2009 – INEMAR 21

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

SO2 NOx COV CO NH3 PM10 PM2.5

Produzione energia e trasformazione combustibili Combustione non industriale Combustione nell'industria

Processi produttivi Estrazione e distribuzione combustibili Uso di solventi

Trasporto su strada Altre sorgenti mobili e macchinari Trattamento e smaltimento rifiuti

Agricoltura Altre sorgenti e assorbimenti

POMI domain

Page 22: POMI EMISSION  INVENTORY

JRC Milan 30/09/2009 – INEMAR 22

POMI domain

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

SO2 NOx COV CO NH3 PM10 PM2.5

puntuali diffuse lineare

Page 23: POMI EMISSION  INVENTORY

JRC Milan 30/09/2009 – INEMAR 23

Base Case Isoprene emissions

LIMITO - O3

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

26/6 27/6 28/6 29/6 30/6 1/7

pp

b

Measured pa_0.1_hkv pa_0.1_hkv_nobgRE_SLAZZ - O3

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

26/6 27/6 28/6 29/6 30/6 1/7

pp

b

Measured pa_0.1_hkv pa_0.1_hkv_nobg

MANDRIA - O3

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

26/6 27/6 28/6 29/6 30/6 1/7

pp

b

Measured pa_0.1_hkv pa_0.1_hkv_nobg

2005cle

2005cle_nobiog

Page 24: POMI EMISSION  INVENTORY

JRC Milan 30/09/2009 – INEMAR 24

Base Case

Isoprene emissionsBVOC – Po valley domain

- Italian emission inventory: 200 kton/y

- MEGAN estimate: 700 kton/yPOMI domain - average VOC emissions (12 - 30 June 2005)

-

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

NO

NO

2

AL

D2

AL

DX

CH

4

ET

H

ET

HA

ET

OH

FO

RM

IOL

E

ISO

P

ME

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PA

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RP

TO

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XY

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NH

3

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mo

l/ce

ll

All

Biogenic

Anthrop

Page 25: POMI EMISSION  INVENTORY

JRC Milan 30/09/2009 – INEMAR 25

Grazie per l’attenzione!

Page 26: POMI EMISSION  INVENTORY

JRC Milan 30/09/2009 – INEMAR 27

Page 27: POMI EMISSION  INVENTORY

JRC Milan 30/09/2009 – INEMAR 28

2012 CLE

RAINS - IT REGIONAL INPUT

Page 28: POMI EMISSION  INVENTORY

JRC Milan 30/09/2009 – INEMAR 29

RAINS-Europe Model is Regional Air Pollution Information and Simulation, developed by IIASA, which has been officially used

for the negotiations in the context of both the Gothenburg protocol and the 2001/81/EC Directive (NEC Directive).

RAINS/GAINS

Page 29: POMI EMISSION  INVENTORY

JRC Milan 30/09/2009 – INEMAR 30

HARMONISATION

CLE SCENARIO

RAINS – IT

ENERGY

MARKAL (MARKET

ALLOCATION) is model of

optimization of the energy

system

Industry

Based on national statistics,

projections of economic activity

and non-energy macro-economic

factors such as GDP

Control strategyIt takes into account the existing

legislation0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1

2005 2010 2015 2020

SO2 NOX PM10 PM2.5 NH3 COV

Regional level

Page 30: POMI EMISSION  INVENTORY

JRC Milan 30/09/2009 – INEMAR 31

2012 CLE

RAINS - IT REGIONAL INPUT

Harmonization

CLE Scenario

Energy

Productive Activities

Control strategies

Page 31: POMI EMISSION  INVENTORY

JRC Milan 30/09/2009 – INEMAR 32

Emission scenario - 2012 CLE (Current LEgislation)

4 kinds of source emissions:

Diffused emission

SNAP02 – Non industrial combustion plants

Road Transport

Point sources

2012 CLE – Lombardy region

Page 32: POMI EMISSION  INVENTORY

JRC Milan 30/09/2009 – INEMAR 33

Emission scenario - 2012 CLE (Current LEgislation)

4 kinds of source emissions:

Diffused emission

SNAP02 – Non industrial combustion plants

Road Transport

Point sources

2012 CLE – Lombardy region

Interpolation of RAINS DATA 2005-2010-2015

PAE – regional energy plan

Technological scenario and fuels consumption scenario

Provided by ARPA Lombardia

Page 33: POMI EMISSION  INVENTORY

JRC Milan 30/09/2009 – INEMAR 34

-

0.20

0.40

0.60

0.80

1.00

1.20

NOx COV PM10 PM2.5

2005

2012 CLE

2012 CLE – Lombardy region

Page 34: POMI EMISSION  INVENTORY

JRC Milan 30/09/2009 – INEMAR 35

2012 CLE

RAINS - IT REGIONAL INPUT

Harmonization

CLE Scenario

Energy

Productive Activities

Control strategies

Base case

CLE Scenario

PAE –regional energy plan

Road transport trends

Rains for diffused emission

Page 35: POMI EMISSION  INVENTORY

IES - Institute for Environment and SustainabilityIspra - Italy

http://ies.jrc.ec.europa.eu/

http://www.jrc.ec.europa.eu/

Joint Research Centre (JRC)

JRC Milan 30/09/2009 – INEMAR 36

Emission scenario

Page 36: POMI EMISSION  INVENTORY

JRC Milan 30/09/2009 – INEMAR 37

Europe Po-Valley Lombardy

2005 BC2005 BC1 2005 BC1

2005 BC2 (emissions Temp fac.+met) 2005 BC2

2012 CLE

2012 CLE

2012 CLE

2012 AQP

2012 CES

2012 MFR

2012 MFR 2012 MFR

2012 CLE (Po traff & Inemar 2007) ?

2012 CLE (Lombardy background) ?

2012 CLE (Meteorology 2)

2012 CLE (Bound. Cond. CHIMERE)

2012 CLE (Po backg)

2015 CLE 2015 CLE (AQP?) 2015 AQP

2020 CLE2020 CLE (AQP?)

2020 AQP

2020 CES

2020 MFR 2020 MFR

2 5 7 9 7 7 7 8 7 7 7

CHIMERE – EMEP – CAMx – RCG -- AURORA

Page 37: POMI EMISSION  INVENTORY

JRC Milan 30/09/2009 – INEMAR 38

2012 (CLE & AQP)

RAINS - IT REGIONAL INPUT or PLAN

Harmonization

CLE Scenario

Energy

Productive Activities

Control strategies

Air quality measures

AQP

Base case

CLE Scenario

PAE –regional energy plan

Road transport trends

Rains for area emission

Air quality measures

AQP

Page 38: POMI EMISSION  INVENTORY

JRC Milan 30/09/2009 – INEMAR 39

2012 AQP – Lombardy region

1 HDVs, LDVsReplacement of all the LDV < Euro 3 with Euro 5, equipped with particulate filter, and

of all HDV < Euro 3 with Euro 5, equipped with particulate filter

2 Passenger cars Replacement of all the diesel and gasoline PCs < Euro 3

3 Mopeds and motrocycle Replacement of all the mopeds and motorcycles Euro 1 and Euro 2 two strokes.

4 LPG & CNG Increase of the LPG & CNG stations and increase of the public incentives for LPG &

CNG sells

5 biodiesel Increase of the use of biodisel

6Improvements in the railways

sector Increase of the number of trains circulatin in Lombardy region

7Improvements in the pubblic

transport sector Increase of the service offered by the tranposrt public system of the Mina area

8Improvements in the pubblic

transport sector Euro 0 buses will be replaced by newer one (Euro 4 or 5) and particulate filter will be

added

9 Pollution chargeMilano municipality has applided a pollution charge area : decrease of 130.000

vehicles circualting in the city

D.G. Qualità dell'Ambiente - Struttura Protezione Aria

SCENARIO 2012

TRASPO

RT

MEASURES DESCRIPTIONN.

a. TRANSPORT

TECHNOLOGICAL

FUEL

PUBLIC TRANSPORT

POLLUTION CHARGE

Page 39: POMI EMISSION  INVENTORY

JRC Milan 30/09/2009 – INEMAR 40

2012 AQP – Lombardy region

b. ENERGY

10 Heating system diffusion of the CNG 11 Energy certification of buildings energy certification of buildings for new building or recostruction12 Pubblic lighting system renewal of pubblic lighting system with newer tecnology 13 Heating accounting system increase of the heating accounting system for apartement block14 Electrical Domestic Equipment increase of GREEN electrical accounting equipment15 MSW electricity from municipal solid waste16 biogas biogas from municipal solid waste21 District heating22 Biomass

23 Solar panel 

26 Photovoltaic generator

27 Eolic energy

28 Hydropower

Renewable energy

N. MEASURES DESCRIPTION

EN

ERG

IA

EFFICIENCY

RENEWABLE

Page 40: POMI EMISSION  INVENTORY

JRC Milan 30/09/2009 – INEMAR 41

2015/2020 (CLE & AQP)

RAINS - IT

Harmonization

CLE Scenario

Energy

Productive Activities

Control strategies

Air quality measures

AQP

Page 41: POMI EMISSION  INVENTORY

JRC Milan 30/09/2009 – INEMAR 42

As soon as possible….

2012 AQP

2015 CLE

2015 AQP

2020 CLE

2020 AQP

2012 CLE (Lombardy background) ? 2012 CLE (Po traff & Inemar 2007) ? MFR will be realized for RIAT. It will be used for POMI too in order to guarantee the

consistency POMI/RIAT (availability of their data)

Page 42: POMI EMISSION  INVENTORY

JRC Milan 30/09/2009 – INEMAR 43

Thank you for your attention !

Page 43: POMI EMISSION  INVENTORY

JRC Milan 30/09/2009 – INEMAR 44

2012 AQP – Lombardy region

1 HDVs, LDVsReplacement of all the LDV < Euro 3 with Euro 5, equipped with particulate filter, and

of all HDV < Euro 3 with Euro 5, equipped with particulate filter

2 Passenger cars Replacement of all the diesel and gasoline PCs < Euro 3

3 Mopeds and motrocycle Replacement of all the mopeds and motorcycles Euro 1 and Euro 2 two strokes.

4 LPG & CNG Increase of the LPG & CNG stations and increase of the public incentives for LPG &

CNG sells

5 biodiesel Increase of the use of biodisel

6Improvements in the railways

sector Increase of the number of trains circulatin in Lombardy region

7Improvements in the pubblic

transport sector Increase of the service offered by the tranposrt public system of the Mina area

8Improvements in the pubblic

transport sector Euro 0 buses will be replaced by newer one (Euro 4 or 5) and particulate filter will be

added

9 Pollution chargeMilano municipality has applided a pollution charge area : decrease of 130.000

vehicles circualting in the city

D.G. Qualità dell'Ambiente - Struttura Protezione Aria

SCENARIO 2012

TRASPO

RT

MEASURES DESCRIPTIONN.

a. TRANSPORT

Page 44: POMI EMISSION  INVENTORY

JRC Milan 30/09/2009 – INEMAR 45

Estimation of an average emission factors for the LDV sector in 2012 - CLE scenario

2012 AQP – Lombardy region

FE2012CLE

Definition of the fleet composition for the year 2012

Page 45: POMI EMISSION  INVENTORY

JRC Milan 30/09/2009 – INEMAR 46

Estimation of an average emission factors for the LDV sector in 2012 - CLE scenario

2012 AQP – Lombardy region

FE2012CLE

Definition of the fleet composition for the year 2012Definition of the vehicle mileage for each euro category in 2012

-

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

160,000

Conventional Euro I Euro II Euro III Euro IV EuroV

Vehicle number Mileage

Page 46: POMI EMISSION  INVENTORY

JRC Milan 30/09/2009 – INEMAR 47

Estimation of an average emission factors for the LDV sector in 2012 - CLE scenario

2012 AQP – Lombardy region

FE2012CLE

Definition of the fleet composition for the year 2012Definition of the vehicle mileage for each euro category in 2012Definition of an average emission factor for the LDV sector, weighted

using mileage and vehicle number - CLE scenario

LDV < 3.5 t diesel Conventional 342 2165 171 76984 9,113LDV < 3.5 t diesel Euro I 131 1330 171 53736 15,991LDV < 3.5 t diesel Euro II 131 1330 171 57676 19,843LDV < 3.5 t diesel Euro III 104 1105 112 90280 22,361LDV < 3.5 t diesel Euro IV 71 893 42 125865 23,300LDV < 3.5 t diesel EuroV 31 643 42 157490 23,488CLE- average EF 151 1,358 146

Sector Fuel Euro category Vehicle numberPM10

[mg/km/veh]NOx

[mg/km/veh]COV

[mg/km/veh]Mileage

Page 47: POMI EMISSION  INVENTORY

JRC Milan 30/09/2009 – INEMAR 48

Estimation of an average emission factors for the LDV sector in 2012 - CLE scenario

Estimation of an average emission factors for the LDV sector in 2012 - AQP scenario (all pre EURO 3 vehicles replaced by EURO V)

2012 AQP – Lombardy region

FE2012CLE

FE2012AQP

LDV < 3.5 t diesel Conventional 342 2165 171 76984 9,113LDV < 3.5 t diesel Euro I 131 1330 171 53736 15,991LDV < 3.5 t diesel Euro II 131 1330 171 57676 19,843LDV < 3.5 t diesel Euro III 104 1105 112 90280 22,361LDV < 3.5 t diesel Euro IV 71 893 42 125865 23,300LDV < 3.5 t diesel EuroV 31 643 42 157490 23,488CLE- average EF 151 1,358 146AQP - average EF 31 643 42

MileageSector Fuel Euro category Vehicle numberPM10

[mg/km/veh]NOx

[mg/km/veh]COV

[mg/km/veh]

Page 48: POMI EMISSION  INVENTORY

JRC Milan 30/09/2009 – INEMAR 49

Estimation of an average emission factors for the LDV sector in 2012 - CLE scenario

Estimation of an average emission factors for the LDV sector in 2012 - AQP scenario (all pre EURO 3 vehicles converted to EURO V)

Estimation of the contribution of the pre EURO 3 vehicle to the total LDV transport emission

2012 AQP – Lombardy region

FE2012CLE

FE2012AQP

ELDV,<EURO3

Page 49: POMI EMISSION  INVENTORY

JRC Milan 30/09/2009 – INEMAR 50

Estimation of an average emission factors for the LDV sector in 2012 - CLE scenario

Estimation of an average emission factors for the LDV sector in 2012 - AQP scenario (all pre EURO 3 vehicles converted to EURO V)

Estimation of the contribution of the pre EURO 3 vehicle to the total LDV transport emission

Calculation of emission variation

2012 AQP – Lombardy region

FE2012CLE

FE2012AQP

ELDV,<EURO3

ELDV, AQP = ELDV,<EURO3 *FE2012AQP/FE2012CLE

Page 50: POMI EMISSION  INVENTORY

JRC Milan 30/09/2009 – INEMAR 51

Preliminary results

PM10 NOx COV

-61% -36% -68%

2012 AQP – Lombardy region

PM10 NOx COV PM10 NOx COV PM10 NOx COVPC gasoline 7 2,535 1,633 40 3,286 2,283 16.5% 77.1% 71.5%PC diesel 234 3,772 216 655 17,448 898 35.7% 21.6% 24.1%PC CNG (0) (107) (17) - 22 7 0.0% -474.2% -232.8%PC LPG (0) (64) (37) - 347 227 0.0% -18.4% -16.5%

LDV diesel 264 1,872 247 556 9,664 758 47.4% 19.4% 32.6%HDV diesel 884 18,005 1,931 1,085 39,757 2,313 81.5% 45.3% 83.5%

MOPEDS gasoline 259 (88) 18,593 344 329 23,231 75.4% -26.7% 80.0%MOTORCYCLE gasoline 40 (25) 2,885 75 791 5,280 53.6% -3.2% 54.6%EVAPORATIVE gasoline - - 3,635 - - 4,405 0.0% 0.0% 82.5%

% Reduction[%]

Emission reduction[t/year]

2012 CLE emission[t/year]

Page 51: POMI EMISSION  INVENTORY

JRC Milan 30/09/2009 – INEMAR 52

2012 CLE – Po Valley

Emission inventory 2005

for all the regions of the Po

Valley

(last version – july 2008)

RAINS CLE

2005-2010-2015

SO2, NOx, PM10, PM2.5,

COV, NH3

Linear interpolation

INEMAR 2012 CLE

macrosectors

Page 52: POMI EMISSION  INVENTORY

JRC Milan 30/09/2009 – INEMAR 53

2012 CLE – Po Valley

RAINS

SNAP NOMENCLAURE

Interpolation

0 20 40 60 80 100 120

2005

2010

2015

2020

yea

r

NOx [kt/year]

Combustion in energy and transformation energy Non-industrial combustion plantsCombustion in the manufacturing industry Production processesRoad transport Other mobile sources and machinery Waste treatment and disposal

0 20 40 60 80 100 120

2005

2010

2012

2015

2020

ye

ar

NOx [kt/year]

Combustion in energy and transformation energy Non-industrial combustion plants

Combustion in the manufacturing industry Production processes

Road transport Other mobile sources and machinery

Waste treatment and disposal

2012/2005

Page 53: POMI EMISSION  INVENTORY

JRC Milan 30/09/2009 – INEMAR 54

2012 AQP – PO valley

RAINS

AQP

2005-2010-2015

SNAP NOMENCLAURE

AQP: 2010AQP-2010CLE

2012AQP: 2012CLE + AQP -14.0%

-12.0%

-10.0%

-8.0%

-6.0%

-4.0%

-2.0%

0.0%

Non industrial combustion Transport

Non industrial combustion -5.7% -5.7% -5.8% -5.7% -5.6%

Transport -3.8% -8.8% -9.4% -12.8% -3.1%

SO2 NOX PM10 PM2.5 COV

Page 54: POMI EMISSION  INVENTORY

JRC Milan 30/09/2009 – INEMAR 55

OPEN issue…to discuss

Emission inventory:

• 2008 INEMAR for all the regions of the Po Valley

• Different traffic emission model (ARTEMIS vs COPERT)

• Transport model for the entire Po Valley

Emission scenario PoValley Lombardy

1 2005 BC 2005 BC

2 2012 CLE 2012CLE (RL)

3 2012 AQP 2012 AQP (RL)

4 2012 CLE 2012 AQP (RL)

5 2012 MFR (RAINS) 2012 MFR (RAINS)

6 2015 CLE (RAINS) 2015 CLE (RL)

7 2015 MFR (RAINS) 2015MFR (RAINS)

8 2020 CLE (RAINS) 2020 CLE (RAINS)

9 2020 MFR (RAINS) 2020 MFR (RAINS)

Page 55: POMI EMISSION  INVENTORY

JRC Milan 30/09/2009 – INEMAR 58

Diffused emissions

INEMAR 2005

RAINS CLE

(2005-2010-2015)

SO2, NOx, PM10, COV, NH3

Data interpolation

INEMAR 2012 CLE

classification

2012 CLE – Lombardy region

Page 56: POMI EMISSION  INVENTORY

JRC Milan 30/09/2009 – INEMAR 59

Area emissions

INEMAR 2005

RAINS CLE

(2005-2010-2015)

SO2, NOx, PM10, COV, NH3

Data interpolation

INEMAR 2012 CLE

classification

2012 CLE – Lombardy region

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

160,000

180,000

2005 2012 2005 2012 2005 2012 2005 2012 2005 2012

SO2 NOx VOC NH3 PM10

Em

issi

on

i [t/

yea

r]

3 4 5 6 8 9 10 11

Page 57: POMI EMISSION  INVENTORY

JRC Milan 30/09/2009 – INEMAR 60

Non industrial combustion plants

PAE – regional plan

for energy policy

INEMAR 2005

Emission

FactorsE2012 I,C,S = E2005I,C,S * FCAC *FCFES

2012 CLE – Lombardy region

-

1,000,000

2,000,000

3,000,000

4,000,000

5,000,000

6,000,000

7,000,000

gas naturale gasolio enafta

olio comb. gpl biomassa gas naturale gasolio enafta

Civile Agricoltura

Consu

mo [

tep]

2004 2005 2010 2012 2015

CNG GAS OIL FUEL OIL GPL BIOMASS CNG OILFUEL

HEATING AGRICOLTURE

Page 58: POMI EMISSION  INVENTORY

JRC Milan 30/09/2009 – INEMAR 61

Non industrial combustion plants

2012 CLE – Lombardy region

0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000 40000

2005

2012

2005

2012

2005

2012

NO

xV

OC

PM

10

Emissioni [t/anno]

Boiler natural gas Boiler gas oil Boiler domestic fuel oil Boiler keroseneBoiler domestic fuel oil Traditional fireplace wood Pizzerie wood BAT fireplace woodBAT pellets wood Innovative woodstove Traditional woodstove

Page 59: POMI EMISSION  INVENTORY

JRC Milan 30/09/2009 – INEMAR 62

Road Transport

E = FEi * NVi * Pi

Technology scenario Fuel consumption scenario

Euro 0

Euro 10?

2012 CLE – Lombardy region

-

1,000,000

2,000,000

3,000,000

4,000,000

5,000,000

6,000,000

7,000,000

1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

Gasoline Diesel Total

Page 60: POMI EMISSION  INVENTORY

JRC Milan 30/09/2009 – INEMAR 63

Road Transport

iai

iai

aiE

EEE

,

,

,2010

201220102012

INEMAR

COPERT 4

2012 CLE – Lombardy region

Page 61: POMI EMISSION  INVENTORY

JRC Milan 30/09/2009 – INEMAR 64

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

90,000

2010 2012 2010 2012 2010 2012 2010 2012 2010 2012

SO2 NOX COV NH3 PM10

Em

issi

on

s [t

/ye

ar]

Passenger cars LDV HDV Mopeds Motorcycle Evaporative

2012 CLE – Lombardy region