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HydrologyProfessor De Leon DLSU
Citation preview
Population
forecasting
Relation of Quantity of Water
and Population
Water consumption is influenced by the following
factors
Climate
Economic level
Population density
Degree of industrialization
Cost
Pressure
Quality of the supply
Analysis of the future demand begins by
considering the present use
Consumption is classified according to;
Classes of users (domestic, commercial,
industrial, public, etc)
Area of the city
Economic level of the users
Season of the year
On per capita consumption, applying the
procedure of dividing total use by the total
population should be applied with care, since
Entire population may not be served by the municipal
system
There may be large industrial users which will not
change with population
Characteristics and size of the population may be
changing
Population estimation
Since population is always a relevant
factor in estimating future use, it is
necessary to predict what the future
population will be
Arithmetic method
The assumption is that the rate of growth is
constant 𝑑𝑃
𝑑𝑡= 𝐾
where 𝑑𝑃
𝑑𝑡 is the rate of change of population and
K is a constant
The population in the future is estimated as; 𝑃𝑡 = 𝑃𝑜 + 𝐾𝑡
where 𝑃𝑡 is the population at some time in the
future, 𝑃𝑜 is the present population and t is the
period of the projection
Geometric or Uniform Percentage Method
The hypothesis of geometric or uniform
percentage growth assumes a rate of
increase which is proportional to population
𝑑𝑃
𝑑𝑡= 𝐾′𝑃
Geometric or Uniform Percentage Method
Thus, the population at some time is
estimated as; 𝑙𝑛𝑃 = 𝑙𝑛𝑃𝑜 + 𝐾′∆𝑡
𝑤ℎ𝑒𝑟𝑒 𝐾′ =ln (𝑃2) − ln (𝑃1)
𝑡2 − 𝑡1
Curvilinear Method This technique involves the graphical projection of the
past population growth curve, continuing whatever
trends the historical data indicate
Includes comparison of the projected growth to the
recorded growth of other cities of larger size
Geographical proximity, likeness of economic base,
access to similar transportation systems, and other
factors should be considered for comparison
Fig. Curvilinear method of projecting population growth
Logistic Method
The logistic curve used in modeling
population growth has an S shape –
combining a geometric rate of growth at low
population with a declining growth rate as the
city approaches some limiting population.
In the short term, a logistic projection can be
based on
𝑃 =𝑃𝑠𝑎𝑡
1 + 𝑒𝑎+𝑏∆𝑡
where 𝑃𝑠𝑎𝑡 is the saturation population of the
community and 𝑎 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑏 may be determined
from three successive census population
𝑃𝑠𝑎𝑡 =2𝑃𝑜𝑃1𝑃2 − 𝑃1
2(𝑃𝑜 + 𝑃2)
𝑃𝑜𝑃2 − 𝑃12
𝑎 = 𝑙𝑛𝑃𝑠𝑎𝑡 − 𝑃2
𝑃2
𝑏 =1
𝑛𝑙𝑛
𝑃𝑜(𝑃𝑠𝑎𝑡 − 𝑃1)
𝑃1(𝑃𝑠𝑎𝑡 − 𝑃𝑜)
where n is the time interval between succeeding censuses
Declining Growth Method
Assumes that the city has some limiting
saturation population, and that its rate of
growth is a function of its population deficit; 𝑑𝑃
𝑑𝑡= 𝐾"(𝑃𝑠𝑎𝑡 − 𝑃)
𝐾" =1
𝑛𝑙𝑛
𝑃𝑠𝑎𝑡 − 𝑃1
𝑃𝑠𝑎𝑡 − 𝑃𝑜
where 𝑃 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑃𝑜 re populations recorded in n
years apart
Future population can be estimated as;
𝑃 = 𝑃𝑜 + (𝑃𝑠𝑎𝑡 − 𝑃𝑜)(1 − 𝑒𝐾"∆𝑡)
Ratio Method
Relies on the population projections made by
professional demographers
Based on the assumption that the ratio of the
population of the city being studied to that of
the larger group will continue to change in the
future in the same manner that has occurred
in the past
The ratio is calculated for a series of
censuses, the trend line is projected into the
future, and the projected ratio is multiplied by
the forecast regional population to obtain the
city’s population in the year of interest
Use of good judgement in population
estimation is important
If the estimate is too low, the system will be
inadequate and redesign, reconstruction and
refinancing will be necessary
Overestimation will result in excess capacity
which must be financed by a smaller
population at a higher unit cost
Selection of an appropriate technique requires
testing all methods against recorded growth and
eliminate those which are not applicable
Growth of a community
with limited land area for future expansion may be
modeled by the declining growth or logistic technique
with large resources of land, power, and water and
good transportation may be predicted by the
geometric or uniform percentage growth
Example:
Given the population data as follows;
Population in 2000 = 76.5million
2010 = 92.3milliom
Estimate the population in 2020, 2030, 2040
using the arithmetic, geometric, logistic and
declining growth methods