Port Demand Forecast in Korea and the ESCAP regionSession 2) KMI_Port de… · Time series analysis Survey and reflect bituminous coal use plan of each plant Anthracite consumption

Port Demand Forecast in Korea and the ESCAP region

Port Demand Analysis Center of Korea Maritime Institute

Establish national action plan for shipping and port sectorsDevelop policies for the development of industriesrelated to shipping and portInternational logistics and cooperation in shipping and port sectorRun International Logistics Investment Analysis Center

and Port Demand Analysis CenterAnalyze trend and policies related to shipping, port and logistics

Shipping/Port Policies

Establish national action plan on marine policyPolicy related to the development and use of marine resourcesPolicy and management of marine territory including Dokdo island and Ieoh IslandPolicy related to preservation and management of marinespace and marine ecosystemIntegrated management of exclusive economic zone (EEZ)

Marine Policy/Marine Environment

Establish national policy for fisheries and fishing community sectorsDevelop fisheries related policies and improve institutionUse and develop coastal area efficientlyStrategy to respond to fisheries negotiation under FTA and WTO/DDAEnter overseas fisheries market and handleinternational cooperation on fisheries

Fisheries Industry/Fishing Community

Korea Maritime Institute

Port Demand Analysis Center(PDAC)

Container

Oil

Coal

Steel

Iron Ore

Car

Other Ores

Sand

Cement

Chemical ProductsGeneral Goods

Grains

Wood

Scrap Metal

Confirm port traffic

volume forecast

Reflect the forecast in

port master

plan

Forecast on Item-Specific Traffic Volume

Forecast atItem Level

Comparewith berth

development plan

Total traffic volume

forecast at each port

(30 trade ports+

Other ports)

Compare with the previous

forecast

* Source: Port Demand Analysis Center(KMI)

Oil28%

Steel/Iron Ore12%

Coal9%

Car5%

Others46%

Total Cargo in Korea

’000 ton


CAGR: 3.4%

Incheon: 2,377

Busan: 19,469

Gwangyang: 2,327

Pyeongtaek Dangjin: 566

Ulsan: 385

Nationwide: 25,681

It is forecast that container traffic volume will be 31 million TEU in Korea and 23.5 million TEU in Busan port by 2020.

Container Throughput in Korea

’000 teu


Gwangyang: 2,327Gwangyang

CAGR: 5.4%

Export/Import Full Container

Port-specific forecast on total container traffic volume

Forecast on Port Traffic Volume

Economic Indicators(GDP, amount of seaborne)

Difference between full container import and export,

actual empty container

Forecast on total

export/import container traffic

volume

By area by sea route by port

GDP of major trading partners

Weighted moving average

Port specific forecast on export/import container

volume

Port-specific forecast on transshipment container

Port-specific forecast on costal container

Analyze the share of each port

Transshipment container for each

port

Coastal container for each port

Container

Export/Import Empty Container


For generation

Import of bituminous coal/Plant capacity

For steel making

Bituminous coal import volume/Crude steel production capacity

cement production Time series analysis

Survey and reflect bituminous coal use plan of each plant

Anthracite consumption amount/Crude steel production capacity

Import

Coastal Time series analysis

Export Excluded from forecast

Port-specific forecast on coal volume

Account for 0.04%

It is forecast that coal traffic volume in Korea will reach 18.4 million tons by 2020.

CoalForecast on Port Traffic Volume


Dangjin Thermal Power

Seocheon Thermal Power

Hadong Thermal Power

Taean Thermal Power

Seocheon

Boryeong Thermal Power

Yeongheung Thermal Power

Yeongdong Thermal Power

Donghae Thermal Power

Samcheonpo Thermal Power

Honam Yeosoo Thermal Power

Coal

’000 ton

CAGR:6.6%


Oil, 39.5%

Coal, 12.9%

Steel, 8.8%

Iron ore, 7.7%Car, 6.6%

Others, 24.4%

Steel

* Source: WSA(World Steel Association)

PyeongtaekDangjin Port

Gwangyang Port

Okpo Port

Pohang Port

Korea has the 5th

largest steel production capacity as a major steel producer

in the world

steel export cargo is predicted by utilizing crude steel production capacity of steel making companies located near ports

Steel

Steel cargo volume in Korea will be 94.6 million tons by 2020, growing 0.7%on annual average reflecting recent downturn in the steel industry

CAGR:0.7%

’000 ton


Forecast on Port Traffic Volume Automobiles

Import Regression analysis

Recent statistics

Regression analysis(New cars)

Analysis on the ratio of transshipment export/Import

traffic volume in export/Import traffic volume

Location of PDI businesses

in surrounding areas

Major ports for automobile

transshipment

Unit load approach, weighted moving average,

log trend, demand momentum

Port-specific forecast

on Automo

biles volume

Location of car production

facilitiesin surrounding

areas

Import

Ports for new car ferries

Coastal

Others(Export/import,

transhipment, coastal

Log trend analysis(Used cars)

Export

Export

Automobile Production volume forecast

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

South Asia

South America

North America

Middle East/Africa

Japan/Korea

Greater China

Europe

* Source: IHS Automotive

Global automobile production volume forecast (IHS Automotive) and domestic automobile production volume and forecast are used for prediction

(’000s)

CAGR:1.4%


’000 ton

Automobiles cargo volume in Korea will be 73.4 million tons by 2020, growing 1.4%on annual average

Forecast on Port Traffic Volume

PetroleumGas

Petro-chemical industry’s

value-added

LNG production facility per port/

Import traffic volume

Refinement capacity per port/Import traffic volume

Forecast on oil importtraffic

volumeper portCrude

oil/pertrol-eum

RefinedPertrol-

eum

Distributionper port

Ratio of crude oil import in oil export

Sophistication ratio of petroleum refinement facilities

Forecast on oil export traffic volume per port

Regression analysis(oil export traffic volume)

Distribution per port (Sorted by Production/consumption places)

Forecast on oil coastal traffic volume per port

Oil

Oil

OilApply bottom-up method targeting ports located near oil refining facilities

Gwangyang Port

Ulsan Port

Import: Item-specific forecast including crude

oil, petroleum products, and petroleum gas

Export: Forecast on all oil related products

Coastal: Forecast on all oil related products

Incheon Port

Daesan Port

Petroleum ProductsForecast based on added value of petrochemical industry using naphtha, a major ingredient of petroleum products, as a variable

Petroleum GasForecast by dividing ports into ones which are located near LNG production facilities and ones which are located near power generation plant.

Korea has the 6th

largest refining capacity as a major petroleum products

producer in the world

’000 ton

CAGR:5.4%


Oil cargo volume in Korea will be 532 million tons by 2020, growing 5.4%on annual average reflecting oil hub, which is underway

’000 teu’000 teu

* Source: IHS Global Insight(WTS)

‘00 ‘01 ‘02 ‘03 ‘04 ‘05 ‘06 ‘07 ‘08 ‘09 ‘10 ’11 ’12 ’13 ’14 ’15

Traffic volume increase rate is different from country to country. and except for China, Container throughput in Indonesia, India and Viet Nam is significantly higher.

(3.8%) (5.9%) (4.9%) (0.07%) (1.8%) (11.0%)(2.3%) (3.4%)

China Hong Kong, China India Indonesia Japan Malaysia Republic of Korea Thailand Viet Nam

’000 ton’000 ton


‘00 ‘01 ‘02 ‘03 ‘04 ‘05 ‘06 ‘07 ‘08 ‘09 ‘10 ’11 ’12 ’13 ’14 ’15

The non-container traffic increase rate was high in the China, India and Viet Nam

(7.1%) (3.4%) (2.1%) (-0.09%) (2.4%) (3.8%)(2.4%) (1.6%)

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000


‘00 ‘01 ‘02 ‘03 ‘04 ‘05 ‘06 ‘07 ‘08 ‘09 ‘10 ’11 ’12 ’13 ’14 ’15 ’16e ’17e ’18e ’19e ’20e USDmillion


USDmillion

We tried to utilize the same method used in Korea, but due to lack of relevant data,GDP and time series methods were used.

* Source: IHS Global Insight(WTS)* Source: IHS Global Insight(WTS)

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000


’000 teu ’000 teu‘00 ‘01 ‘02 ‘03 ‘04 ‘05 ‘06 ‘07 ‘08 ‘09 ‘10 ’11 ’12 ’13 ’14 ’15 ’16e ’17e ’18e ’19e ’20e

The annual growth rate is expected to be 2 to 3% on average. However, it is predicted that Viet nam maintain growth rate higher than annual average by 2020.

,Port Demand Analysis Center(KMI)

(2.5%) (2.4%) (2.3%) (1.6%) (2.2%) (3.5%)(1.9%) (2.1%)

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

800,000

900,000

1,000,000


’000 ton ’000 ton

* Source: IHS Global Insight(WTS) , Port Demand Analysis Center(KMI)

‘00 ‘01 ‘02 ‘03 ‘04 ‘05 ‘06 ‘07 ‘08 ‘09 ‘10 ’11 ’12 ’13 ’14 ’15 ’16e ’17e ’18e ’19e ’20e

The annual growth rate is expected to be 0.2 to 2.4% on average. Some countries such as the Philippines(4.3%) and China maintain growth rate higher than annual average by 2020.

(3.0%) (2.4%) (1.7%) (1.7%) (2.3%) (2.2%)(1.8%) (1.8%)

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Port Demand Forecast in Korea and the ESCAP regionSession 2) KMI_Port de… · Time series analysis Survey and reflect bituminous coal use plan of each plant Anthracite consumption