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Portable / WirelessPEG
Chair: Kartik Ananth, Intel
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Portable/Wireless System PEG
• Portable/Wireless PEG includes:
– Portable Computers
– Tablets
– Mobile Phones, Smartphones
– Portable Gaming
“Produced in high volumes, cost is the primary driver, hand held
battery powered products are also driven by size and weight reduction.”
Table of Contents for the Portable Wireless Chapter
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Contents
Portable Wireless Product Sector ............................................................................................... 1 Executive Summary ................................................................................................................ 1 Introduction ............................................................................................................................. 3 Situation Analysis ................................................................................................................... 4
Market Growth .................................................................................................................... 4 Cost Constraints ................................................................................................................ 12 Semiconductor Growth ..................................................................................................... 12 Memory Growth................................................................................................................ 12
Wireless Growth ............................................................................................................... 13 Machine to Machine, Cloud Computing, Security And Trust .......................................... 13 Outsourced Design & Manufacturing, and the Supply Chain .......................................... 14
Roadmap of Quantified Key Attribute Needs ....................................................................... 15 Critical Issues (Infrastructure) .............................................................................................. 19
Supply Chain ..................................................................................................................... 19 Environmental Compliance .............................................................................................. 20 IC Device Shrink............................................................................................................... 21 Wireless Integration .......................................................................................................... 21
Prioritized Technology Requirements and Trends:
Research, Development, Implementation .................................................................. 22 Design for Environment .................................................................................................... 22
Increased Modularization.................................................................................................. 22 Recommendations on Priorities and Alternative Technologies ............................................ 23
Display .............................................................................................................................. 23 Sensors, Mechanical and Electromechanical Design ........................................................ 24 Component Integration ..................................................................................................... 24 Component Adoption, Package Development, and New Material Requirements ............ 28
Contributors .......................................................................................................................... 29
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Highlights
Executive Summary
• Consumer/Portable recap from 2014:
– $600B business in 2015, growing by 17% from 2010
– Smartphones are expected to be the major segment driver
– Phone and tablet experiences are proliferating
– Cloud Computing opening up new user experiences
– Performance @ power, battery life, form factor
– Much more integration, “all in one” adjacent capabilities
– New adjacent segments of wearable/ Internet of things
(connected machine to machine devices) growing very
signifcantly
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460,000
480,000
500,000
520,000
540,000
560,000
580,000
600,000
620,000
2013 2015 2017 2019 2025
Re
v ($
M)
Total Portable & Wireless
Portables & Wireless
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Americas
Asia-Pacific
EMEA
Japan
2013-2025 CAGR 1.0%
Factory OEM Revenues ($M)
2013 2015 2017 2019 2025
Total Portable & Wireless 518,244 577,578 599,251 580,831 586,502
2013 Regional Revenue AmericasAsia-
PacificEMEA Japan
Total Portable & Wireless 16,444 475,164 13,663 12,973
IHS forecast , Aug 2014
Areas of Focus
• Business (& Environmental) Issues
– Update to business section (state of market segmentation)
– Cost, cost, cost
– Supply chain complexity, business continuity & crisis management
– Meeting Environmental & Green requirements at neutral cost
– Ubiquitous wireless infrastructure
– User experience & required display space
– Interoperability & communications standards across multiple devices
• Technical Issues
– New form factors with continued driver for smaller, thinner
– Increased feature integration & complexity
– Materials: Flexible, bendable, waterproof
– Battery life: Smaller, thinner, longer-lasting batteries
– Cloud computing, data transfer & security
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Snapshot of Selected Key Emulator Attributes
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Assembly Costs Selected Product Family
Average Board Assembly Cost State of the Art (production volume) ¢ per I/O 0.035 0.02 0.02 0.01 0.006
Average Final Product Assembly Cost State of the Art (production volume) $/unit 1.15 1.05 0.98 0.9 0.5
Package Costs Typical Volume Product
IC Package Cost State of the Art (production volume) ¢ per I/O 0.15 0.1 0.1 0.08 0.05
Package Cost (High Density Ceramic/w/ Area Connector) State of the Art (production volume) ¢ per I/O 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.1
Package Cost (High Density µvia Laminate w/ Area Connector) State of the Art (production volume) ¢ per I/O 0.03 0.025 0.2 0.1 0.05
Connector Cost State of the Art (production volume) ¢ per I/O 0.005 0.004 0.003 0.002 0.001
Energy Cost State of the Art (production volume) $/Wh 0.4 0.3 0.25 0.2 0.1
Memory Cost (Flash) State of the Art (production volume) $/MB 0.03 0.015 0.007 0.004 0.002
Memory Cost (SRAM) State of the Art (production volume) $/MB 0.85 0.7 0.55 0.4 0.2
Cost of Test as a ratio to assembly
Total cost of test as a ratio of the total
cost of assembly for normal production
volumes.Test cost should include the
same parameters as the NEMI cost of
test model.
ratio 0.025 0.02 0.015 0.01 0.005
Cycle Time Typical Product/Best Case
NPI Cycle Time
Elapsed time from alpha proto release to
production release w/ long lead & all
alpha parts available
Weeks 14 12 10 6 4
Product Production Life (not including spares) Length of time a product is produced Years 3 3 3 3 3
Reliability Typical Product Family
Temperature Range State of the Art (production volume) Deg C - Deg C -40 - +85 -40 - +85 -40 - +85 -40 - +85 -40 - +85
Number of Cycles State of the Art (production volume) Cycles to Pass manuf spec manuf spec manuf spec manuf spec manuf spec
Vibrational Environment (PWB level) State of the Art (production volume) G²/Hz UA UA UA UA UA
Use Shock Environment 1 meter drop on concrete Gs & ms to Pass 20G(20ms) 20G(20ms) 20G(20ms) 20G(20ms) 20G(20ms)
Humidity Range State of the Art (production volume) % - % UA UA UA UA UA
Altitude State of the Art (production volume) Kilometers NA NA NA NA NA
Force Rotational Force on MR Gs NA NA NA NA NA
Devices Max Used in Volume Production
Number of stacked die (Max) State of the Art (production volume) # 8 10 11 12 20
Sensors State of the Art (production volume) Types Gyro, Accel, GPSPrevious plus HapticsPrevious plus Haptics, Camera, Context Camera (gesture recognition)
Number of Die in SiP (max) State of the Art (production volume) # 5 5 6 7 12
Maximum MEMS Power Consumption State of the Art (production volume) W
MEMS State of the Art (production volume) Types Gyro, Accel, GPS Gyro, Accel, GPS prev+projection prev+projection prev+medical
MEMS Reliability State of the Art (production volume) MTBF UA UA UA UA UA
Embedded Actives State of the Art (production volume) # per sq. cm UA UA UA UA UA
Transformers State of the Art (production volume) Types UA UA UA UA UA
Passive Components Typical Product Family
Passive Devices: State of the Art (production volume) Type/Size Embedded Embedded Embedded Embedded Embedded
Embedded Passives Passives fabricated into the substrate # per sq. cm UA UA UA UA UA
Max. Ohms State of the Art (production volume) ohms / sq. cm 10K 100K 100K 100K 100K
Max. Capacitance State of the Art (production volume) μF / sq. cm 10K 250 500 700 1000
Min. % tolerance State of the Art (production volume) % 10 5 5 2 1
Integrated Passives State of the Art (production volume) nF / sq. µm UA UA UA UA UA
RF Components Typical Product Family
Quality Factor State of the Art (production volume) Q 20 125 400 1000 5000
Capacitance density State of the Art (production volume) nF/sq. cm 0.3 1 10 100 500
Inductance req. State of the Art (production volume) nH 15 30 300 1000 1000
Interconnect Insertion loss maximum State of the Art (production volume) db/cm/GHz 0.05 0.008 0.0025 0.001 0.0002
Magnetic Susceptability State of the Art (production volume) ppm
Display Typical Product Family
Resolution State of the Art (production volume) Type 65k pixels 500k pixels 1M pixels 2M pixels 4M pixels
Technology State of the Art (production volume) Type AMLCD AMLCD OLED OLED OLED
Color State of the Art (production volume) Type Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes
Cost State of the Art (production volume) $ per unit $12 $10 $7 $5 $2
Average Power Dissipation State of the Art (production volume) W/sq.cm UA UA UA UA UA
Average Display Size State of the Art (production volume) sq. mm 2,500 3,000 3,500 3,800 4,500
Interconnect State of the Art (production volume) Type UA UA UA UA UA
Average Display Size (diagonal) Stae of the Art (production volume) cm 25 25 25 25 25
Memory Typical Product Family
Main Memory Type State of the Art (production volume) Type SRAM Stack D&S eDRAM, NVM eDRAM, NVM eDRAM, NVM
Main Memory Capacity State of the Art (production volume) MB 256 1 GB 5 GB 10 GB 100GB
Storage Density State of the Art (production volume) MB/cubic mm UA UA UA UA UA
Storage Type State of the Art (production volume) Type Card/Slot Disk Disk? Optical ? Optical
Storage Capacity State of the Art (production volume) MB 5 GB 20 GB 100 GB 500GB 1TB
Maximum Power State of the Art (production volume) mW UA UA UA UA UA
Minimum Speed State of the Art (production volume) GB/sec UA UA UA UA UA
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• User Experience
– More intuitive user interfaces
– Internet of things (connected devices)
– Touch panel, Multiple Sensors
– Gesture & Voice Recognition
– Fast, Responsive, Predictive
– Machine to Machine (Sensors, e-Wallet)
– Ubiquitous wireless infrastructure
– Wearable, Bendable
• Form Factor Variety
– Thinner & Lighter, Smaller X/Y/Z
– Maximum usable screen space
– Portable ≤5”, 7” to 12” devices, Wearables
• Performance and Battery Life
– Lower power, better performance
– Smaller, thinner, longer lasting batteries
Roadmap Key Drivers (2014/2015)Photo Credit:cnet.com, apple.com,
mobiledia.com, devicenation.com
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Key Roadmap Trends • More Integration, More Connectivity and More Convergence
– Tablets and Phones delivering entertainment, gaming, browsing
– Thin/small/light form factors
– All devices are connected, and will begin to connect to each other (Internet of things/M2M etc.)
– Devices going wireless (wireless displays/wireless charging/ wireless docking/ pico projectors integration into mobile form factors)
– Demand for increased I/O, graphics performance, display resolutions
– Continued trend for silicon integration (SOCs, SiPs, MCPs, MCMs, 3D)
– Cloud computing of Data, GPS, Maps, Video Streaming,… (Cloud Phones)
– Desire to link healthcare to mobile life, consumer devices, wearables
– Data transfer & security, sensor reliability, software integration
– Cloud & software to span multiple devices, small to large screens
– Interoperability & communications standards
• Lower Cost
– Mobile systems volume surpassing desktop systems; cost pressure
– More capability & integration will all drive increased cost to the system
– Meeting Environmental & “Green” requirements at neutral cost
Key Roadmap Trends• System performance will increase over time
– Power to trend flat-to-slightly-lower over time
– Memory bandwidth demand will continuously increase.
– Integration will drive SOCs, SIPs, MCPs, MCMs, 3D Stacking
– Number and speed of I/O continues to scale
• HDI boards will enable both integration and smaller form factors
– Increased industry capacity, capability at a lower cost
– Ball pitches down to 0.3mm at lower cost
• Materials – thin & light metal/plastic enclosures, multi-touch panels
– Water-resistant, scratch-resistant, easy to maintain
– Wearable – Flexible/bendable, thin, light, robust
• Battery Life & Recharge
– Smaller, thinner and not a limiter to chassis Z, efficiency & capacity
– Integration of power interfaces to recharge (connector formats, wireless battery charging).
• Supply Chain complexity is difficult to see until there’s a crisis
– Contingency planning & business continuity
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