Post processing on NWP output and nowcasting on the grid for feeding

the forecast system in Canada

Donald TalbotChief of Meteorological System Section, CMC

SAAWSO Project WorkshopSt. John’s, April 23rd, 2013

Page 2

Overview

• Actual forecast system Scribe

• Next Generation Forecast System Signature Project

• New post processing and nowcasting systems

• Collaboration and a need for operational systems

Page 3

MATRICES MODELS

Canadian Met. CentreSCRIBE

Storm Prediction Centers

Concepts Generato

r

Weather Elements“CONCEPTS”

Products Generato

r

PRODUCTS

SCRIBE

Matrices Generator

METEOCODE

Page 4

Page 5

Signature Project: Next Generation Forecasting System

• Make use of new NWP systems and re-define post processing– point paradigm changing to grid forecasting

• Next Gen includes the Warning Re-engineering Signature Project– NWP with a focus on High Impact Weather (HIW)

• Forecasters activities in relation to nowcasting and weather watch for HIW

• New level of service and development of new products

• Several developers grouped in different teams will work on specific portion of the new forecast system

– The pool of information will be center at every development team– Next Gen will be an evolution of the existing forecasting system, it will not be a

whole new system

Page 6

Summer 2013 2016 2020

Global

Regional

Urban

Local

Det. 25 km

Det. 10 km

EPS 15 km

Det. 2.5 km

Det. 250-> 5m

Det. 10 km

EPS 35 km

Det. 2.5 km

EPS 10 km

EPS 2.5 km

Det. 3m EPS 5m

Det. 10 km

EPS 20 km

Det. 1.5 km

EPS 10 km

EPS 1.5 km

Det. 1m EPS 5m

Future evolution of CMC atmospheric models

EPS 66 km

Page 7

LAM2.5km-West Inland Scribe matrices (red cross)

Page 8

RDPS 10 km topography (GZ0, dam)

Page 9

LAM-W 2.5 km topography (GZ0, dam)

Page 10

A project involving several groups

interface textNWP

UMOSConcepts database

CMDM

CMDW scribe software

nowcasting

NinJo

met objects

text

Page 11

Best data – Post Processing

• Review post processing with best science and new guidance, verification with EMET

• Collaboration with National Labs

• New guidances – on High Impact Weather (HIW)– on ensemble, calibration and sampling– Information or intrinsic value

• UMOS+MIST and/or CALDAS+GEM-surf

• Consistency among weather elements

• Strategies for best data : e.g. for day 6-7, averaging of last two runs

Page 12

• Observations of precipitation types, convection and cloud cover are converted into a meso-scale analysis using the Kriging interpolation method (50 km grid)

• The resulting analysis is then refined by using radar, satellite and lightning observation data and NWP

• Meso-scales analysis are produced by combining these different data sources using a rules bases system (12.5 km grid)

• The sequence in the production of the meso-scale analysis is important:1. Cloud cover

2. Precipitation occurrences

3. Precipitation types

4. Stability & Convection analysis is independent

• The final analysis are extrapolated by a forward scheme using the NWP wind field (50% of 500 hPa)

Nowcasting on the grid : Prototype description

Page 13

Nowcasting on the grid

• Nowcasting workshop’s date decided at next Prediction Committee in June

• Meso analysis from Bourgouin– Presentation at GLOMW in April, input of meteorologists

• HIW ? Weather watch, run on request not just hourly

• Ontario lab and ARMP science transfer – radar and satellite

• NWCSAF under EUMETSAT

• Investigate what is done with INCA

Page 14

Example : better fog forecasting

• GEM10km not handling well fog, unless using B. Burrows diagnostics based on FRAM

• With LAM2.5, diagnostic fields calculated from prognostic values from M-Y scheme and based on Ismail Gultepe’s parameterizations using FRAM data

• Hourly fog observation by satellite, extrapolation and then converging toward LAM2.5 solution could be a good strategy

Page 15

•

Page 16

Page 17

How to bring a project to operations

• At the beginning, plan its implementation

• Develop code using best practice in programming

• Testing and verification scores

• Demonstration to decisional committee such as CPOP

• Delivery to the implementation section with documentation, validation

• Forever support to operations in case of problems

• Operational forecasters use and feedback

Page 18

Links with ARMP

• INTW for nowcasting at points and on grid (MIST), Laura and George

• Radar and Precip-ET, Norm Donaldson and Ahmed Mahidjiba (CMOI)

• Satellite applications for nowcasting and weather over cold climatic regions during SAAWSO project (Satellite Applications for Arctic Weather and SAR Operations), Ismail Gultepe, April 22-24 2013, St. John’s NF

• No replacement to MAPLE, optical flow technique in STEPS, Paul Joe

Page 19

Conclusion

• New forecast system lies ahead of us

• Projects will converge toward operations

• Collaboration among all partners is key