“Post-2015” FeverHeat? Yes. Light? No.

Lawrence HaddadInstitute of Development Studies

UKSeminar at AusAID

August 2012

“Post-2015” Fever

0.7 0.52

5 69

19

40

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 to August

Number of items listed under “post-2015” on google by year (thousands)

Outline• What development are we trying to achieve as a

global community? Who are we?• Brief survey of global changes since late 20th century• Could goals support any part of what we are trying to

achieve?• Features of New Goals?• What might happen? • How will we get the New Goals?• Implications for AusAID?

Global Public Goods

MDG agenda

Short run national interests

What should the global community be trying to achieve?

What should the global community be trying to achieve?

Nirvana

Politics is central: between countries

Preservation

G8

Aspiration

G20, G77

Back in the real world

The bad news1995-2000 2012-2015

• Need for multilateralism strong• Ability to deliver it moderate• Belief in it is medium

• Need for multilateralism stronger than ever• Ability to deliver it is weaker• Belief in it is at a low

Global power more concentrated

• With global power more multi-cited, diverse and G20 evolving, no obvious coalition for DGs

Strong economic performance in rich countries

Austerity in rich countries

Climate and environment lower on rich country agendas

Climate and environment higher on some rich country agendas, but waning

Pre 911 Post 911, focus on fragility, 3D’s Shocks the exception Shocks the new normal (sort of)

Muted MultilateralismBruntland Report vs GSP Report

• Bruntland strong on international cooperation• UN Global Sustainability Panel report – proclaims

new approach to political economy, but silent on – Respect of 9 planetary boundaries requires

internationacooperation– Pricing externalities requires broad international

agreement– What reimbursement do developing countries receive for

meeting the costs of reducing global bads?

Robin Davies. 2012 “Global sustainability: the sequel”, Development Policy Centre Discussion Paper 19, Crawford School of Public Policy, ANU.

Policy Research Working Paper 5162. International Aid and Financial Crises in Donor Countries. Hai-Anh DangSteve Knack, Halsey Rogers. 2009.

Source: Authors’ calculations using LV data, as described in the text. Note: The figure shows the coefficient on the individual‐year counter dummy for years after crisis, as estimated in regressions controlling for donor‐country per‐capita income and population, as well as country fixed effects and year dummies across all donors. Year t=1 corresponds to the first year of the crisis.

Impact of Banking Crises

on Net Disbursed Aid Provided by Crisis-Affected Donors, 1977-

2007

ODA has held steady since 2008, but for how long?

Lowy Institute Poll. Australia and New Zealand in the World Public Opinion and Foreign Policy. Fergus Hanson. 2012.

Waning support for dealing with global warming

The good news1995-2000 2012-2015

Except for China, lower growth outside OECD

Growth outside of the OECD

“Era of big government is over” Calls for moral capitalismInequality below the surface Inequality surfaced (kind of)Sustainability without resilience Sustainability with resilience (sort of)

Development finance=ODA (sort of)

Development finance=taxes, remittances, FDI, philanthropy, ODA

ICTs a rich country phenomenon

ICTs have global penetration

No consensus on whether development goals are worth it

We think goals can add value

Measurement: material & impact is nice

Measurement: beyond material & impact essential

75% of poverty in low income countries

75% of poverty in middle income countries

Biggest economies in 1998 and 2008 by GDP (PPP) Rank 1998 Country Rank 2008 Country

1 USA 1 USA2 Japan 2 China3 China 3 Japan4 Germany 4 India5 France 5 Germany6 UK 6 Russia7 India 7 UK8 Italy 8 France9 Brazil 9 Brazil

10 Russia 10 Italy11 Mexico 11 Mexico12 Spain 12 Spain13 Canada 13 Korea14 Korea 14 Canada15 Turkey 15 Turkey16 Australia 16 Indonesia17 Indonesia 17 Iran 18 Netherlands 18 Australia

THE G-20: A PATHWAY TO EFFECTIVE MULTILATERALISM? Juha Jokela. Institute for security Studies European Union Paris. 2011.

More Diverse

(fragmented?) set of

resources for development

Tax revenue in Africa is rising

Domestic Resource Mobilisation across Africa. AfDB. Alex Mubiru Committee of Ten Policy Brief. 2010.

Global Inequality,1988-2005, is fairly flat

On a sub-national per person basis, not on an average per capita basis

Inequality is falling in more

countries than it is rising in

But need to monitor inequality in big emerging countries, especially in Asia

Movement of poverty to:

middle income, fragile, urban sub Saharan

Africa

Trends in number of LIC and MIC countries

Where Do The World’s Poor Live? A New UpdateAndy Sumner. June 2012. IDS WP 393

IDA Country Client Base Comparison, 2010 and 2025

Todd Moss and Benjamin Leo. 2011. “IDA at 65: Heading Toward Retirement or a. Fragile Lease on Life?” CGD Working Paper 246.

IDA clients concentrating in sub-Saharan Africa and Fragile and Conflict Affected States

Location of people living below $1.25 a day

millions

Where Do The World’s Poor Live? A New UpdateAndy Sumner. June 2012. IDS WP 393

Implications? • Resilience• Inequality• Using aid to leverage wide range of instruments,

Poverty is urbanising

Urban poverty as a % of total poverty

IFAD 2011

Have the MDGs changed anything?

What have the MDGs achieved? (Manning 2010)

• On Donors:– Strengthening view that if support for aid is to be

sustained, measurable progress must be shown in areas that the public in donor countries view as desirable

• On developing countries:– the MDGs have so far had more influence on

political discourse than on resource allocation

Richard Manning. 2010. The Impact and Design of the MDGs: Some Reflections. IDS Bulletin 41.1

What have the MDGs achieved? (Kenny and Sumner 2011)

• “It is a lot to ask of one legally toothless document, silent on the necessary steps to achieve its declared goals, to dramatically and observably change the course of global development -- however grand the signatories”

• “It is impossible to say with any certainty what was the impact of the MDGs”

• May well have played a role in increasing aid flows• Weak available evidence, limited impact on policies in

developing countries

More Money or More Development: What Have the MDGs Achieved? Charles Kenny and Andy Sumner. CGD Working Paper 278 December 2011

MDG contribution?

More Money or More Development: What Have the MDGs Achieved? Charles Kenny and Andy Sumner. CGD Working Paper 278 December 2011

MDG contribution?

More Money or More Development: What Have the MDGs Achieved? Charles Kenny and Andy Sumner. CGD Working Paper 278 December 2011

New Goals:

Listmania

MDG +

More on equity, refine the hunger metrics, sort out the environment Goal etc.

MDG 2.0

Post-2015 Goals, Targets, and Indicators Background Paper Paris, April 9-11, 2012 Barry Carin and Nicole Bates-Eamer. CIGI.

Contribution from CIGI

1. Poverty: $2/day, malnutrition 2. Health: Life expectancy, child mortality 3. Education: Literacy, secondary education 4. Gender: Population disparity under the age of five 5. Sustainable Development: Forest area; alternative

energy as a percentage of total, GHG emissions, species extinction

6. Peace: Military expenditure as % GDP 7. Infrastructure: Access to mobile signal, access to

improved energy sources 8. Development: Duty Free Access, Aid 0.7%

MDGs 2.0: What Goals, Targets and Timeframe? Jonathan Karver, Charles Kenny, and Andy Sumner July 2012 . IDS Working paper. 398

2010-2030

Contribution from Karver, Kenny and Sumner 2012

SDGs

Rio 2012 Issues BriefsProduced by the UNCSD Secretariat No. 6

25 CSOs (10 N, 15 S), supported by 1400 CSOs

Suggestions for Sustainable Development Goals

SDGs + MDGs

Source: Oxfam. The 11 dimensions of the social foundation are illustrative and are based on governments’ priorities for Rio+20. The nine dimensions of the environmental ceiling are based on the planetary boundaries set out by Rockström et al (2009b)

Contribution from Oxfam:

“The Doughnut”

GDGs?

(Global Development Goals)

Human wellbeing outcomesHealth, Zero Hunger, Water, Rights,

Peace

EnablersIncome (level and distribution) ,

Education, Risk Reduction, Resilience

ConnectorsEnergy, ICTs, Sanitation, Shelter, Transport infrastructure, Justice

SustainersIntensity of resource use in production

and consumption, emission of pollutants and GHGs consistent with future wellbeing

Com

mitm

ents

Spen

ding

and

Pol

icie

s, in

centi

vise

dG

ender dimensions

Horizontal InequalitiesPo

licy

Inst

rum

ents

Aid,

Tra

de, T

echn

olog

y, M

igra

tion,

En

viro

nmen

t, Se

curit

y, In

vest

men

tsAll countries

Differentiated responsibilities

Global Development Dashboard: based on a theory of change

Haddad, 2012

MDG+

MDG 2.0SDG only

GDG - (Integration of MDG & SDG within ToC)

SDG+MDG 2.0Cohabitation/hybrid

Feasibility

(technical, administrative, political)

Desirability

Features of New GoalsPrimary questions• Full set of GPGs or mainly Poverty?• Co-habitation or Integration?

Global Public Goods

MDG agenda

Short run national interests

What should the global community be trying to achieve?

Secondary features of New Goals• Dependent on answer to first set of questions

– What are the supporting instruments and institutions?– All countries? What compensation mechanisms What scope for differentiated

responsibilities? – Levels of application-global, regional, national– Number of goals, targets, indicators– What are the specific indicators for each goal and target?

• Independent of answer to first set of questions– They have to capture people’s imagination, generate stretch, but be within bounds of

possibility– What combination of outcomes today, predictions of future outcomes and current

commitments to both?– Duration – Indicators to use data or stimulate collection?– Process for listening, contestation and negotiation– Communication plan– What is the M&E plan?

What will happen? Possibilities

Evans and Steven (2012)• Full SDGs –ambitious, not people focused enough—a costly distraction?• SGD lite – no-one gets what they want, disillusionment• MDG 2.0 – add sustainability indicators in an evolutionary way• Hybrids – ceiling/floor• Car crash

Lingan et. al. (BOND, 2012)• Twin track, SDGs separate from post-2015• SDGs incorporate social• MDGs incorporate sustainable

Beyond the Millennium Development GoalsAgreeing to a Post-2015 Development FrameworkAn MGO Working Paper, Alex Evans and David Steven24 April 2012> Brookings.

Sustainable Development Goals:building The Foundations For An Inclusive Process Jeannet Lingán, Jack Cornforth and Robert Pollard, Stakeholder Forum . 3 May, 2012 > BOND.

How will we get towards a set of goals?• The process needs to be inclusive (Voices of the Poor 2.0?), but

there’s very little time – September 2013 Review Summit is key (although there is no clear post-

2015 deadline!)

• The process is very political, but there is no institutionalised leadership to take it forward and fight the hard battles (unlike last time with the DAC)– G20?– High Level Panel?– G77?– Model like IPCC?

• Do we need a transition period? Or is that a cop out?• Need a theory of change and an evaluation plan• Real lack of leadership at the highest levels

Opportunities for AusAID?1. Global level – use the G20 Troika (Russia, Australia, Turkey) to support global

leadership on post-20152. Lead G20 on development, but not as an add-on, but rather through G20

“whole of government” basics: financial regulation, price volatility, land grabs etc.

3. Become a global leader in development assistance to middle income countries (Indonesia, India, China, Philippines, PNG)—others will need to follow

4. Become a global leader in development assistance that advances development in urban areas—again, others will follow

5. Promote lesson learning within SE Asia — e.g. what can we learn from China and is what can China learn from others?

6. Harder they fall.. prepare the region for economic and political fall-out from any Chinese internal friction resilience